WI: a Genghis Khan like figure emerges in early 800s AD

[Otto Kretschmer]

What if a Genghis Khan like figure emerged in Mongolia in early 800s AD instead of 1200s AD?

Let's say there is a Great Kurultai in 806 AD which chooses this figure as a Great Khan.

Some initial thoughts:
1. China would fall faster than OTL. By 800s AD China still hadn't recovered from the An Lushan Rebellion and is weaker than Jin and Song were in the 1200s.
2. The Middle East might fall quicker as well - there are no Mamluks to stop the Mongols, only a relatively weak Abbasid Caliphate which by the time had already started to fracture. It might be interesting to consider what religion the Mongol conquerors convert to, it might not be Islam at all.
3. The Byzantine Empire might fall or be significantly weakened.

But it's most interesting what is going to happen in Europe - Europe in 800s is much weaker than Europe in 1200s, so it's a possibility that the Mongols go much further into it. If they do, what might the consequences of Mongol rule be for Europe?

[stevep]

Jul 23, 2024 15:09:24 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

What if a Genghis Khan like figure emerged in Mongolia in early 800s AD instead of 1200s AD?

Let's say there is a Great Kurultai in 806 AD which chooses this figure as a Great Khan.

Some initial thoughts:
1. China would fall faster than OTL. By 800s AD China still hadn't recovered from the An Lushan Rebellion and is weaker than Jin and Song were in the 1200s.
2. The Middle East might fall quicker as well - there are no Mamluks to stop the Mongols, only a relatively weak Abbasid Caliphate which by the time had already started to fracture. It might be interesting to consider what religion the Mongol conquerors convert to, it might not be Islam at all.
3. The Byzantine Empire might fall or be significantly weakened.

But it's most interesting what is going to happen in Europe - Europe in 800s is much weaker than Europe in 1200s, so it's a possibility that the Mongols go much further into it. If they do, what might the consequences of Mongol rule be for Europe?

  Interesting idea although I have some concerns.  Think your assuming not only that this guy is as skilled a leader as OTL Genghis but also that the region has the same capacity to produce a very powerful army and that he also has an many good generals working under him and for the next few decades.  If either of those assumptions were wrong then their going to be somewhat less of a threat.  However assuming both do occur.

1)  If so then yes the Tang are in a mess but there's no clear rival dynasty as in the OTL Mongol time and also Genghis only captured the northern part of China, which was weak and divided.  It was his grandson who conquered the bulk of China under the Sung dynasty largely by using Chinese forces from the north as infantry and with siege work.  The Tang are weak compared to the regional lords who have gained a lot of power but you could see a new unity emerge under such a threat.  I suspect that TTL's Mongols will still have problems with China. 

2)  The Abbasid Caliphate, although it had some troubles was at its height in the period 775-861 so the Mongols are going to meet it at its peak, which isn't going to be an easy battle.  Especially since the Mongols are pagans which would give opportunities for the Caliph to seek to unite his people against them.  That's going to be a much harder fight than against the divided and dilapidated caliphate in the 1250s. 

3)  Byzantium was weaker that the Abbasid's during this period although it fought regularly with them.  It was only in the 10th century that the empire had the ability to start pushing the Muslim's back.  The empire could be attacked by the Mongols one of three ways, from the north via either the Caucasus Mts or the Balkans or from the south east via Mesopotamia/Syria.  To get at it they however have to get through either the Khazars or the Abbasid.  Also the two eastern ones would requiring fighting through the mountains of eastern Anatolia, which with the theme system in place is not going to be easy. 

  The Khazar's are also about their peak in the 1st half of the 9th century and as steppe nomads themselves their going to be a challenge.  They are likely to go down if faced with a force as powerful as OTL Mongols but its not likely to be easy. 

4)  In terms of Europe its a lot weaker in this period with the collapse of Charlemagne's empire after his death and also the attacks of Vikings, Muslims and Magyar's.  However at the same time the bulk of eastern Europe is a lot less developed compared to a few centuries later.  There are more forests and swamps and those both make the region less attractive for conquest and also markedly more difficult for nomadic armies to maintain themselves.  Its noticeable that OTL Mongols had already partially withdrawn from Syria before the Mamluk's attack because they couldn't maintain their horses in the region and similarly despite military successes against Hungary and Poland they didn't manage to maintain themselves in the Pannonian plain.  Similarly with Russia while they briefly reached place like Moscow they didn't stay in the forests but relied on subject puppets while their Golden Horde descendants stayed in the steppes to their south, pretty much as the Khazars and others had done before them.

  As such I don't think the Mongols would get massively deeper into Europe then they did OTL.  With possibly weaker leaders and going against stronger opposition they might be stopped by the Khazars or the Abbasid or possibly even both.  If they do shatter the Caliphate it would hurt it more than OTL but unless the Mongols convert to a different religion than Islam their going to be largely absorbed politically and culturally.  Similarly while Buddhism, eastern Christianity and Zoroastrianism is stronger than in OTL Mongols period unless their very determined/skilled or very bloody in regards to the Muslim majorities across much of the Caliphate its going to struggle to maintain itself for any length of time.

  I think yes such an earlier Mongol empire could do a lot of damage to many countries.  However given the stronger opponents their likely to face they could fall short of OTL Mongol empire in terms of the territories they hold.  I definitely can't see them getting further into Europe than OTL. 

  Their likely to cause some drastic changes.  For instance assuming they get control of the western steppe its likely to butterfly the success of the Rus in establish states along the Dnieper valley region.  Central Asia, with less time to be Islamized could stay outside Muslim control for long or end up under another faith, especially if they did manage to shatter the Abbasid Caliphate and that could also slow the spread of Islam elsewhere.  Ditto with other differences in what people's survive or fail in TTL will change.

[Max Sinister]

One important thing: At this time, gunpowder wasn't invented yet. So the Mongols wouldn't be able to use it against other civilizations which didn't even know it yet.

[Otto Kretschmer]

Jul 23, 2024 22:39:45 GMT Max Sinister said:

One important thing: At this time, gunpowder wasn't invented yet. So the Mongols wouldn't be able to use it against other civilizations which didn't even know it yet.

Was gunpowder that important in the 1200s though? AFAIK it wasn't until much later that useful siege weaponry emerged.

[kasumigenx]

Jul 23, 2024 15:09:24 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

What if a Genghis Khan like figure emerged in Mongolia in early 800s AD instead of 1200s AD?

Let's say there is a Great Kurultai in 806 AD which chooses this figure as a Great Khan.

Some initial thoughts:
1. China would fall faster than OTL. By 800s AD China still hadn't recovered from the An Lushan Rebellion and is weaker than Jin and Song were in the 1200s.
2. The Middle East might fall quicker as well - there are no Mamluks to stop the Mongols, only a relatively weak Abbasid Caliphate which by the time had already started to fracture. It might be interesting to consider what religion the Mongol conquerors convert to, it might not be Islam at all.
3. The Byzantine Empire might fall or be significantly weakened.

But it's most interesting what is going to happen in Europe - Europe in 800s is much weaker than Europe in 1200s, so it's a possibility that the Mongols go much further into it. If they do, what might the consequences of Mongol rule be for Europe?

They Avars will merge with the Mongols there.

[Max Sinister]

Jul 24, 2024 8:41:24 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

Jul 23, 2024 22:39:45 GMT Max Sinister said:

One important thing: At this time, gunpowder wasn't invented yet. So the Mongols wouldn't be able to use it against other civilizations which didn't even know it yet.

Was gunpowder that important in the 1200s though? AFAIK it wasn't until much later that useful siege weaponry emerged.

At least during initial contact, there'd be a shock. Compare this to Cortez and the Aztecs. Also, the Mongols learned in China to use rams to crack besieged cities.