The Southern Hemisphere is ISOT’d to 1955

[raharris1973]

The entire southern hemisphere is ISOT’d back to the year 1955. How do the southern hemisphere countries do in their new reality? How will they change the Cold War? What happens to countries that are divided between 1955 and 2024?

Some ideas:

1. The really big deal, uptime countries left over from this are Brazil, Indonesia (its most populated half), Australia, and South Africa., 
2. A lot of countries are split in time, Ecuador, Colombia (small bits), Brazil, Gabon, Congo-Brazzzavile, Congo-Kinshasa, Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Indonesia
3. The only uptime American territory left with any population is American Samoa.
4. The future southern hemisphere has nearly 70 years of info on things like climate change, CFCs, plastic pollution, lead, asbestos, and tobacco.
5. Brazil is now the most powerful industrialized country. Seriously, last person to leave 1955 Portugal, please remember to turn off the lights!
6. If you wish to play a cruel joke on a heck of a lot of Asian and African countries, have this ISOT event occur during 1955's Afro-Asian Summit in Bandung Indonesia, when the leaders of many, many of these states were gathered there, like Nehru, Nasser, Sukarno, Zhou Enlai, possibly Ho Chi Minh, several others. Then they disappear, overwritten by 2024 Java and southern Indonesia.

[raharris1973]

A few implications of this:

In "split" countries in South America, the southern, uptime, side, will dominate and rule in Peru, Ecuador, and Brazil over the downtime, northern side. In Colombia, it will be the reverse, because the uptime southern section is so small.

In Indonesia, the southern, uptime section will dominate because it has the capital, most of the population especially the island of Java, and possibly a majority of the landmass - it will rule over the downtime 1955 north-of-equator Borneo-Kalimantan and Sumatra.

In Africa, the independent, southern, uptime parts of Gabon, Congo Brazzaville, Congo-Kinshasa, Uganda, and Kenya will assert their independence against all comers, and advance it against the French, Belgian, and British colonial northern shares of their territory, and the French, Belgians, and British will be unable to do much to stop them for long, despite all the handicaps of even the modern versions of those countries.

Somalia will be a different case. The south of the equator share of Somalia, a bit small, will be a chaotic mess, with violent militias and terrorists, and possibly some peacekeepers from some of the East African countries. It is not in shape to coherently claim sovereignty over what was still British Somaliland or the Italian-Administered UN Mandate over the Somali coast. But the Somali coast and other adjoined areas could be hit with spillover violence from there.

A key question is how deep into the planet and far into outer space the ISOT cut or "slice" is made bringing the southern hemisphere back to 1955. That will determine onward geologic and seismic and volcanic events and their timing. If we suppose that even with southern hemisphere earth 2024 being cut down to the core and being "stapled" and "welded" on to 1955 changes nothing of northern hemisphere seismology and vulcanism, the southern hemisphere can provide the northern hemisphere a complete almanac of all earthquakes and volcanic eruptions over the next 70 years. On the other hand, welding the two disparate hemispheres together might stir up the semi-molten mantle enough that all predictions of earthquake and volcano timing are knocked off schedule. The extent of the "cut" into out space will also determine what satellites, if any, the southern hemisphere countries retain the use of. Their communications networking, geolocation, and weather observation are significantly impaired.

The southern hemisphere also has all the global warming, ice melt and ozone depletion effects, while the northern hemisphere does not. But now their air and water masses with start mixing.

[stevep]

   I wonder if one other issue is that the Indonesian confrontation over its attempts to seize N Borneo from Malaya/Britain as the threat would be significantly more formidable than OTL. 

  There's going to be huge amounts of knowledge going from south to north, not just in technology but also in future events.  I wonder how many future leaders are likely to have sudden health problems because their 1955 rulers decide "that isn't going to happen!".  One obvious point with be what happens in China.  Will Mao purge the people who won control after his death or will some down-time opponents manage to purge him.  

  Similarly what happens in the USSR, India and both the US and Europe.  How does the Soviet empire react to the news of 'future' events.  You could see a lot of unrest, especially since 1953 saw discontent in E Germany and 1956 was to see the Hungarian rebellion against Soviet news. Some in Moscow - along with their supporters - are likely to seek more repression as the answer while many in the fringes of the empire could be more likely to rebel.  If so and given the knowledge others are receiving mean that they might get more support from the west?  India is going to face a lot of news about its future including the decline of the Congress Party, the wars with Pakistan, the development of nuclear weapons in both states.  For the US the big issues might be social changes, a fair number of which will be deeply repulsive to many 1955 Americans.  For Europe there is news about the development of the still not existing EEC into the colossus that the EU became, the loss of Europe's strength in relative terms and the collapse of the surviving overseas empires but also that the dreaded WWIII was avoided - albeit this might be changed now. - Also another clash coming up 'next' year would be the Suez crisis.

  I suspect in the short term at least and with the considerable economic and political clout of the fossil fuels industry that climate change could be largely sidelined.  Especially with news of Three Mile Island and Chernobyl also raising doubts about nuclear power as an alternative.  Things are likely to change over time but it will probably take a decade or so before the down-time north is really going to be expressing much interest in it.  You might get more change in areas such as the health effects of tobacco and DDT and in a ferocious debate about a lot of other issues.

  One other factor is the huge demographic swing which has occurred with the massive population levels of a lot of countries south of the equator.  The estimated total population didn't reach 3 billion until 1960 but is now 8 billion and while India, China and the ME isn't affected Brazil, Indonesia, the Congo and S Africa especially are likely to be huge shocks to many in the north.

  You raise a good point about how deep the division goes into the Earth as unless checked by whatever ASB caused it your likely to see a lot of tectonic problems.  The changes in world temperatures are likely to cause some issues although its likely to be fairly short term as the two sets of atmosphere mix.  There are of course going to be a lot of issues of property ownership rights and national debts between the two hemisphere's as well. 

  I don't think there are any nuclear states in the affected areas but say ships in transit, probably especially for the USN and any foreign bases which might have nukes?  Only one I can think of off-hand would be Diego Garcia which the US tends to be very secretive about.  Any such forces may be of limited life-span because of the inability of the 1955 world to maintain them in operation but could make for a huge short term advantage.

  The south has a huge advantage in terms of electronics in terms of devices they own but this would be reduced by the lack of supporting facilities that were either based in the north or in space - even if satellites orbiting the southern hemisphere are brought along their ground stations are likely to have been in the north.  Also while they will have a massive amount of computing power in terms of stand alone devices no one I suspect has anything like the capacity to build new chips and the like.

  How dependent is the south on food and other supplies from the north?  Could the north also see a problem with more modern diseases and disease resistance ones coming from the south to the north? 

  Going to be a very rough ride for everybody I fear.

[raharris1973]

US preemptive annexation of Cuba?

[stevep]

Jul 31, 2024 12:49:36 GMT raharris1973 said:

US preemptive annexation of Cuba?

  I wouldn't call it an invasion as a pet dictator is still in power but definitely an interest in preventing Castro coming to power.  Whether they try and do it the smart way, by seeking to press reform on Cuba or the hard way by supporting suppression of resentment at the regime might be the big issue.

[raharris1973]

Jul 31, 2024 15:51:36 GMT stevep said:

Whether they try and do it the smart way, by seeking to press reform on Cuba

It is not hard to figure out that this is the "smart way" to do it.

But does not mean it is not difficult to do it, or that there are not obstacles.

Among them: As soon as Batista hears of the Castroite future, he will work hard to eliminate all rivals and potential middle ground and third options and choices between himself and Castro, to keep himself indispensable. Fidel would still play to win. So much rides on if the ISOT event happens before or after he had been amnestied and exiled to Mexico or not. Cubans would resent micromanagement by the US, whatever direction it takes, and whatever negative aspects they hear of Castro...and they will *not* hear one-sidedly negative views of Castro and the Cuban revolution from the ISOT'ed lands, because of its cachet/romance with many people in the global south.

The US could quickly end up stuck in a binary of letting the Castro brothers or closest pals take over, or do exactly this:

Jul 31, 2024 15:51:36 GMT stevep said:

supporting suppression of resentment at the regime

......and that is exactly the bind Batista would want to put them in.