What if Prussia is ISOT from the eve of the 1st Silesian War (1 Dec., 1740) to 1 Dec., 1640, during

[raharris1973]

What if Prussia is ISOT from the eve of the 1st Silesian War (1 Dec., 1740) to 1 Dec., 1640, during the latter 30 Years War?

Frederick II, "the Great" - but not just yet, on this date is mobilized and ready to issue an ultimatum to Austria to hand over Silesia and then to invade the province by December 11th.

The political pretext in 1740 was citing a Hohenzollern legal historic claim, contesting the pragmatic sanction after the death of Holy Roman Emperor Austria and succession of Maria Theresa. Suddenly plunged back to a Germany, HRE, Europe, world, of 100 years earlier, some of those specific factors and pretexts are irrelevant, but what still is relevant is that Frederick still wants Silesia for his Brandenburg-Prussian state, he has an Army ready to seize it, and Germany and the HRE is in the midst of multi-sided war.

In his first ten days, preparing to launch an assault on Austrian Silesia, Frederick and the Prussians will soon discover at the frontiers that things are quite different. Villages are often deserted and in disarray, there are ragtag national and troops about, riders report from border towns of refugees and roving mercenary bands looting, disturbing and robbing formerly tranquil farms, estates, and market towns.  

This forces Frederick to dispatch Army detachments, and diplomats to the frontiers to repel and punish invading and trespassing troops, and to raise Landwehr militia from among the free population to patrol borders to control and halt refugee movements and enforce quarantines against spread of disease.

Diplomats/emissaries are dispatched to warned Swedish troops north, west, and south of Brandenburg territory to not trespass, with Frederick probably agreeing to anti-Habsburg alliance and payments in return for the Swedes staying out.

I imagine Frederick, while trying to keep his territories and their productive base intact and unravaged, would seek to use his technological an tactical advantages to pick off enemies one at a time and impose terms, starting with acquisition of Silesia from the Habsburgs. Despite wanting to keep their troops off his lawn, Frederick is likely to find anti-Habsburg common ground with the Swedes and the French and their other Protestant clients in Germany and Netherlands.

However, he scarcely has any sincere commitment, ideological or religious, to the overall Protestant cause in the religious wars. His religion is the Prussian Army and State, no more, no less. 

How else do you see him politicking, and running campaigns in the year ahead, and what do you think an alternate Peace of Westphalia, ending this timeline's 30 Years War will look like in this altered timeline? Especially in terms of what "extra" he can obtain for Prussia. Would he able to obtain, or even seek, the HRE Crown, or the destruction of overarching institutions, while fighting for it, or would those be outside his interest, while focuses strictly on gaining real estate of value for himself and his heirs, within HRE boundaries, and possibly outside it, like in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth?

[stevep]

Jul 25, 2024 18:56:49 GMT raharris1973 said:

What if Prussia is ISOT from the eve of the 1st Silesian War (1 Dec., 1740) to 1 Dec., 1640, during the latter 30 Years War?

Frederick II, "the Great" - but not just yet, on this date is mobilized and ready to issue an ultimatum to Austria to hand over Silesia and then to invade the province by December 11th.

The political pretext in 1740 was citing a Hohenzollern legal historic claim, contesting the pragmatic sanction after the death of Holy Roman Emperor Austria and succession of Maria Theresa. Suddenly plunged back to a Germany, HRE, Europe, world, of 100 years earlier, some of those specific factors and pretexts are irrelevant, but what still is relevant is that Frederick still wants Silesia for his Brandenburg-Prussian state, he has an Army ready to seize it, and Germany and the HRE is in the midst of multi-sided war.

In his first ten days, preparing to launch an assault on Austrian Silesia, Frederick and the Prussians will soon discover at the frontiers that things are quite different. Villages are often deserted and in disarray, there are ragtag national and troops about, riders report from border towns of refugees and roving mercenary bands looting, disturbing and robbing formerly tranquil farms, estates, and market towns.  

This forces Frederick to dispatch Army detachments, and diplomats to the frontiers to repel and punish invading and trespassing troops, and to raise Landwehr militia from among the free population to patrol borders to control and halt refugee movements and enforce quarantines against spread of disease.

Diplomats/emissaries are dispatched to warned Swedish troops north, west, and south of Brandenburg territory to not trespass, with Frederick probably agreeing to anti-Habsburg alliance and payments in return for the Swedes staying out.

I imagine Frederick, while trying to keep his territories and their productive base intact and unravaged, would seek to use his technological an tactical advantages to pick off enemies one at a time and impose terms, starting with acquisition of Silesia from the Habsburgs. Despite wanting to keep their troops off his lawn, Frederick is likely to find anti-Habsburg common ground with the Swedes and the French and their other Protestant clients in Germany and Netherlands.

However, he scarcely has any sincere commitment, ideological or religious, to the overall Protestant cause in the religious wars. His religion is the Prussian Army and State, no more, no less. 

How else do you see him politicking, and running campaigns in the year ahead, and what do you think an alternate Peace of Westphalia, ending this timeline's 30 Years War will look like in this altered timeline? Especially in terms of what "extra" he can obtain for Prussia. Would he able to obtain, or even seek, the HRE Crown, or the destruction of overarching institutions, while fighting for it, or would those be outside his interest, while focuses strictly on gaining real estate of value for himself and his heirs, within HRE boundaries, and possibly outside it, like in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth?

  Some interesting questions and possibilities here.  Things that come to mind.

a)  Not sure of Frederick would have either the desire or the funds to bribe the Swedes to stay out of his territory.  His own campaigns tended to rely on either foreign subsidies or extractions from occupied territories - Saxony seems to have suffered badly from this during the latter 7YW with both cash and men being extorted to maintain the Prussian army.

b)  At the time the Swedes themselves were facing considerable strain and relying increasingly on subsides from France who wanted to avoid the Hapsburg's unifying the empire under their fairly direct control.  IIRC even the Papacy was opposing such a position despite the Austrians being the leading power supporting the Catholic reformation - along with their Spanish kin. 

c)  Also after a heavy Swedish defeat in 1634 at Nördlingen which destroyed Swedish power in southern Germany France had openly allied with them which had prompted the Spain to also openly joining the war against the Franco-Swedish alliance.  This also seems to have switched the main focus of the war to western Germany.

d)  Nearly forgot but Frederick's lands includes a chunk of Pomerania taken from Sweden at the end of the Great Northern War in 1720.  Sweden may not have formal title to this land yet[?] but they very likely controlled it so its suddenly replacement by a Prussia province is going to cause issues.

e)  Of course the sudden appearance of this state from the future is going to cause a lot of puzzlement and uncertainty and depending on what Frederick does and claims it might be seen as divine intervention by assorted Protestant powers.  Mind you this approach will making holding Catholic lands more difficult.

  As such Frederick, once he realises what has happened has options and problems.  While the Swedish veterans are a formidable force their already been bled white by ~4 years of bitter war and France would be the main opponents.  Alternatively he can try and side with them against the Hapsburg powers although there might be issues of funding and how much the French-Swedish would trust trust this newcomer.  Or be openly a 3rd party.  All have options and dangers. - One other issue here is would Sweden have enough control over its forces in the region to actually be able to stop its local forces marching through or [trying to] loot parts of it.  You could see some early clashes simply because lack of communications and control make it unavoidable.

  Prussia will have the most powerful army in Europe at this time and for its size a bloody big one.  Not sure what the sizes of armies by this stage of the 30YW but given the devastated status of much of central Europe their likely to be smaller while correspondingly Prussia would probably struggle to maintain its armies away from its homeland for any significant time/distance.

  One option might be a grab for Bohemia which was the original seat of the conflict.  This is probably far enough away from the main front to avoid initial concerns from the French and Swedes and especially if he claims to be Protestant 'liberators'.  Its going to earn the anger of the Catholic powers and I believe that by this time many of the Protestants who initially supported the Protestant Frederick V of the Palatinate had either be driven from Bohemia or forcibly converted so how many would welcome him, especially if the region had been started to recover with some peace and he brought new conflict to it.  However Bohemia is rich in resources and if he could conquer it quickly, which I would expect he could, and wasn't too extractive he could after a period be accepted as bringing a more lasting peace to the province.  This would also put the electorate vote for Bohemia under his control which would be important in future elections depending on whether the HRE survives.

  Of course such an action is likely to cause a lot of concern, not just inside the HRE but also possibly in Poland which has largely avoided the destruction of the war so far and is still a significant power that views E Prussia as a Polish fief.  Furthermore at worst such a move might make France markedly less willing to support the anti-Hapsburg powers.  It doesn't want them dominant but probably won't want their power inside Germany largely destroyed and a new great power there that is looking very sinister to them.

  However this could well end the war a bit earlier with Prussia possessing Bohemia - which of course would include Silesia - and becoming the leading Protestant power inside the Empire by a considerable measure and depending on the status of Austria after the war even the most powerful power inside the HRE.  It should be remembered that the Hapsburg's haven't seen the 2nd siege of Vienna yet nor as a result of the resulting Ottoman defeat reunited the large kingdom of Hungary under their rule.  Most of it is still under the Ottomans so if they lose Bohemia their greatly reduced as a power inside Germany. 

  Frederick might alternatively seek an agreement with the Hapsburg's seeking to gain Silesia in return for their support.  However given that provinces wealth and the current situation Austria might not be willing to make such an agreement with this strange new Protestant power until its seen clear sizes of its power and willingness to fight effectively against Austria's enemies, which would distinctly burn Frederick's bridges with the anti-Hapsburg powers.  Also once he realises what has happened and when he is I suspect Frederick would desire to gamble on the big prize rather than 'just' Silesia.

  He could look east to seek to make gains in the east from Poland, possibly making clear Prussian independence and also gaining full control of at least W Prussia to link that province up with his core territories.  However that takes his attention away from the prime theatres for gains while Prussia's position is still new and other powers don't have a chance to adjust.  Prussia's technological edge isn't massive given how little the weapons changed.  I think its far more an organizational superiority.

  Anyway initial thoughts.