WI' Catherine the Great becomes the Queen of Poland in 1764

[Otto Kretschmer]

I think this requires ASB intervention to be pulled off.

What if, somehow, Cathetine II had been choosen as a Queen of Poland in 1764 instead of Stanisław August Poniatowski?

Some initial thoughts
1. There would be no partitions of Poland. A Polish-Russian union would deter Prussia and Austria from trying to dismantle Poland and Russia would have no need for them either.
2. There would be a general warming of Russo-Polish relations
3. Poland would reform it's political system - while Russia at the time was an absolute monarchy, Poland was an extremely dysfunctional noble republic with an extremely weak king being a total puppet of the parliament. Catherine might use the strength of the Russian army to enact reforms in an attempt to strengthen the Polish monarchy.
4. If the French Revolution and Napoleonic Wars still happen, Russia would be stronger.

Any thoughts?

[raharris1973]

Why is an ASB required?

Because despite decisive Russian influence over the szlachta in bribery and intimidation, she still could not get them to vote for a non Catholic like herself, or possibly a woman, as monarch?

[Otto Kretschmer]

Thr previous elected kings (August II and August III) did convert from Protestantism.

It's probably the Russian nobility that would not accept their monarch converting to another religion. And ASB make them accept that.

[stevep]

   I think Catherine would have had to remain Orthodox - which she had converted to already for her marriage, having been a Protestant princes prior to that.  Otherwise she would seriously undermine her support inside Russia which was after all her power base. 

  Whether the Poles would accept that without force I think unlikely.  Some might be cowered, especially with say some promises that their interests would be looked after and possibly also with the promise this would protect the western provinces from Austrian or [more likely] Prussia I think too many, with Catholicism by this time being so fundamental to their national identity are likely to reject violently.  Russian could probably suppress such opposition by force, although probably not without a lot of bloodshed but such an attempt would be seen as illegitimate by the rest of Europe and is likely to face opposition by Prussian and Austria.  Neither of them would want a weak Poland being replaced by a powerful and aggressive Russia on their eastern borders.

  As such I think I would have to agree with Otto that an ASB intervention would be needed.