Alternate Resolutions of the Cimbrian War (113 BC to 101 BC)

[quantumimmortal]

So the Cimbrian War panicked the Romans quite a bit. Some time before 113 BC a group of German tribes including the eponymous Cimbri migrated out of their homeland in Denmark and northern Germany, beginning a trek down to the Danube area. Panicked Roman allies in the area sent to Rome for help. Rome sent an army that was basically obliterated, but Cimbri & Co. turned around and trekked across Germania to Gaul, north of the Alps. Again they turned south and obliterated TWO full Roman armies, each containing multiple Roman and Allied legions, at Arausio. And again they turned aside and traipsed through Spain for a while, until being defeated by the Celtiberians. Eventually they found their way back to Gaul, split into two groups, and tried for Italy. By then the Romans had gotten their shit together, and were led by the competent Gaius Marius. In Gallia Provincia at Aquae Sextiae, then at Vercellae in Cisalpine Gaul, Cimbri & Co. were obliterated as a people. The remaining members were sold into slavery.



Picture by Wikipedia member Tzzzpfff for context and locations.



So...what can go differently? I'm thinking of a few PODs, and I'm trying to figure out which one would be the most interesting.

1. Cimbri continue on to Italy in 113 BC. This leaves the Romans with their pants down, but with plenty of manpower to draw on. The manpower may be wasted, though, by allowing the legions to be led by over-bred aristocratic retards instead of a proper military man. A challenge for the Cimbri will be not losing cohesion when they see the fertile, wealthy alluvial plain of the Padus River.

2. Cimbri invade Italy after Arausio in 105 BC. This leaves the Romans quite short on manpower, though the Jugurthine War in Numidia has wrapped up and there's a seasoned commander (Gaius Marius) there to sail his veteran legions to Italy and defend Rome. Again the Cimbri would have trouble with cohesion.

3. The Cimbri defeat the Celtiberians and settle in some parts of Spain. Rome and its Allies continue a bit stronger, however perhaps with less solidarity as Gaius Marius doesn't make his famous "in the din of battle I can't tell between the Romans and the Italians" line. This may actually lower Italian desire for citizenship, and Roman acceptance of the same. Also Gaius Marius doesn't get his 5 (!) consulships in a row, so not as much fame either, nor arrogance. May drive less a wedge between him and Sulla. Definitely removes the personal grounds for the nasty OTL Social War and civil wars.

4. The Cimbri win Aquae Sextiae and Alt-Vercellae. Not such a big lift. The victors at Aquae Sextiae would continue on to Cisalpine Gaul. They and the Cimbri descending from the Alps can hit the Roman army from two sides at once. After this however Italy is ripe for the taking.

5. The Cimbri win Aquae Sextiae, but lose Alt-Vercellae. More devastating invasion of Cisalpine Gaul, and the Romans have a more difficult fight.

6. The Cimbri lose Aquae Sextiae, but win Vercellae. Probably the Cimbri settle down to raid Cisalpine Gaul for a bit, until another Roman army can be raised. Asking for the Cimbri to win Vercellae as the battle was in OTL is a big lift.



So I ask, what do you think of these PODs, which is the best, what am I maybe wrong about?

[stevep]

Jul 30, 2024 4:10:45 GMT quantumimmortal said:

So the Cimbrian War panicked the Romans quite a bit. Some time before 113 BC a group of German tribes including the eponymous Cimbri migrated out of their homeland in Denmark and northern Germany, beginning a trek down to the Danube area. Panicked Roman allies in the area sent to Rome for help. Rome sent an army that was basically obliterated, but Cimbri & Co. turned around and trekked across Germania to Gaul, north of the Alps. Again they turned south and obliterated TWO full Roman armies, each containing multiple Roman and Allied legions, at Arausio. And again they turned aside and traipsed through Spain for a while, until being defeated by the Celtiberians. Eventually they found their way back to Gaul, split into two groups, and tried for Italy. By then the Romans had gotten their shit together, and were led by the competent Gaius Marius. In Gallia Provincia at Aquae Sextiae, then at Vercellae in Cisalpine Gaul, Cimbri & Co. were obliterated as a people. The remaining members were sold into slavery.



Picture by Wikipedia member Tzzzpfff for context and locations.



So...what can go differently? I'm thinking of a few PODs, and I'm trying to figure out which one would be the most interesting.

1. Cimbri continue on to Italy in 113 BC. This leaves the Romans with their pants down, but with plenty of manpower to draw on. The manpower may be wasted, though, by allowing the legions to be led by over-bred aristocratic retards instead of a proper military man. A challenge for the Cimbri will be not losing cohesion when they see the fertile, wealthy alluvial plain of the Padus River.

2. Cimbri invade Italy after Arausio in 105 BC. This leaves the Romans quite short on manpower, though the Jugurthine War in Numidia has wrapped up and there's a seasoned commander (Gaius Marius) there to sail his veteran legions to Italy and defend Rome. Again the Cimbri would have trouble with cohesion.

3. The Cimbri defeat the Celtiberians and settle in some parts of Spain. Rome and its Allies continue a bit stronger, however perhaps with less solidarity as Gaius Marius doesn't make his famous "in the din of battle I can't tell between the Romans and the Italians" line. This may actually lower Italian desire for citizenship, and Roman acceptance of the same. Also Gaius Marius doesn't get his 5 (!) consulships in a row, so not as much fame either, nor arrogance. May drive less a wedge between him and Sulla. Definitely removes the personal grounds for the nasty OTL Social War and civil wars.

4. The Cimbri win Aquae Sextiae and Alt-Vercellae. Not such a big lift. The victors at Aquae Sextiae would continue on to Cisalpine Gaul. They and the Cimbri descending from the Alps can hit the Roman army from two sides at once. After this however Italy is ripe for the taking.

5. The Cimbri win Aquae Sextiae, but lose Alt-Vercellae. More devastating invasion of Cisalpine Gaul, and the Romans have a more difficult fight.

6. The Cimbri lose Aquae Sextiae, but win Vercellae. Probably the Cimbri settle down to raid Cisalpine Gaul for a bit, until another Roman army can be raised. Asking for the Cimbri to win Vercellae as the battle was in OTL is a big lift.



So I ask, what do you think of these PODs, which is the best, what am I maybe wrong about?

  Some interesting ideas but I must admit I don't know enough about the period to say with any accuracy. 

  I think given how strong Rome was by this stage the Cimbri will be defeated eventually, unless they win in Spain and end up settling there.  Well at least unless further victories by them prompt an earlier social war and Roman/Latin split that leads to a collapse.  However with literally barbarians at the gates this would seem unlikely.

  The interesting things might be the longer terms changes.  If something drastically changes Marius's role and prominence that could change a lot in terms of the future development of the Roman state and empire.

[raharris1973]

If the Cimbrians set up in Spain, how much of it can they grab? How would they affect the local speech? Germanize it? Celtify it? How long could they hold their Spanish patch?

[stevep]

Jul 31, 2024 12:38:35 GMT raharris1973 said:

If the Cimbrians set up in Spain, how much of it can they grab? How would they affect the local speech? Germanize it? Celtify it? How long could they hold their Spanish patch?

  Well the Roman juggernaut will be coming for them sooner or later.  However a lot would depend on how many of them try and settle in Iberia and by which methods.