What if Kuwait, Bosnia, and Kosovo are teleported to oceanic locations on June 1, 1990?

[raharris1973]

What if Kuwait, Bosnia, and Kosovo are teleported to oceanic locations on June 1, 1990?

Like this:

www.flickr.com/photos/22187058@N03/54159854250/in/photostream/lightbox/


What does this do to the international affairs and geopolitics of the 1990s?

In case you are not seeing it clearly, Kuwait is teleported southeast, to the Indian Ocean, just outside the Straits of Hormuz & Persian Gulf, with the original location replaced by Indian Ocean waters and sea floor.

Bosnia-Hercegovina, then still a republic of Yugoslavia, and Kosovo, a special autonomous region of the Serbian republic of Yugoslavia, are teleported to the Atlantic, northwest of Iberia, and their original locations in Yugoslavia are replaced with Atlantic Ocean saltwater and sea floor.

What happens to the Persian Gulf War/Desert Shield/Desert Storm of 1990-1991, or the Yugoslav Succession Wars of 1991-1999, specifically?

[Clarification - because the original prose seemed to generate much confusion and misconception] With the desert sands in the Iraq-Kuwait border region leading to Kuwait's oil fields on the mainland Arabian peninsula, and the islands of Bubiyan and Warba, and Kuwait City,turning into mere beach dunes up to to the Iraqi side of the border, and surprisingly abruptly leading right to Persian Gulf waters right at the line of the Kuwait, border, instead of the continued desert known and expected from time immemorial, is Saddam Hussein going to take that as a divine sign the Kuwait, and the chance at redressing his country's economic and financial shortfalls through a quick grab of oil producing land, is gone.

Or, does he decide he just needs to shift to bigger, but actually richer, target, Saudi Arabia, despite the greater audacity that requires and danger of international reaction?

If he takes the latter course, it is riskier for him with outside powers, including the USA pretty much compelled to act. But it is riskier, costlier, and more difficult for the United States and other intervening powers because they have to deploy into a hot combat zone against a moving, fighting, enemy, actively opposing they deployment into eastern Saudi Arabia, instead of having the luxury of deploying to Saudi Arabia for months undisturbed, forming a 'shield' while Iraq fortifies Kuwait and hopes international pressures will remain political and economic only.

In Yugoslavia, the teleported Bosnian Republic and Kosovo region would still be formally part of Yugoslavia, neither had separated from the federation yet. However, the sheer distance from mainland Yugoslavia and impracticality of exercising iron-fisted authority is going to make a difference. In the island of Bosnia-Hercegovina, the probably somewhat disproportionately Serb Yugoslav National Army units will be the strongest arm force, but the militia units of the republic will be generally representative of the fairly even three-way split of the republic between Muslim Bosnians, Orthodox Serbs, and Catholic Croats. Neither Serbs nor Croats will have the tempting prospect of unifying districts they dominate with the respective Serbian or Croatian republics of the Yugoslav federation. The relative balance of power, and geographic isolation just might encourage compromise or more circumspect forms of political competition rather than ethnic group bids for winner take all.

On Kosovo island, the Milosevic government of the Serb republic had recently stripped the Albanian majority of its autonomy, but now, geography isolated from Serbia, the Serbian minority's rule over the region would be unsustainable, and the Serbs would yield power to the majority peacefully, or have it yanked from them violently.

[stevep]

   In terms of Kuwait is the oil still below the desert that has replaced Kuwait or below the new location of Kuwait, or duplicated, being in both locations?

  I would expect that Iraq will occupy the new land and that other than Kuwait no one will object massively.  If there is oil under that land it will take time to locate and develop.  Iraq will still have its war debts from the conflict with Iran and the assorted nations will want that debt repaid.  The alleged Kuwaiti sloped drilling into Iraqi fields will no longer be occurring.  Kuwait is now beyond Iraqis reach - although its possible it might become a source of tension because whether or not it still have oil it is now in a very strategic position.

  Doubt that Saddam would go for the Saudi fields, although remember that was a concern when the invasion of Kuwait occurred.  It would be a hell of a leap and would set everybody against him even more than the invasion of Kuwait.  - Although such a move might be more important if he hasn't taken over the Kuwaiti oil fields and there's only more sand and rock under the desert.

  If Kuwait doesn't have oil in its new location its going to suffer economically, although it has considerable wealth stocked up so with decent government - which I'm not sure it had, it could make a reasonably soft landing and could seek to find alternative sources of revenue.  If it still has oil its sitting pretty. Environmentally some things might change.  Its going to be more vulnerable to storms being in the Indian Ocean but might also get cooler temperatures and more rainfall for the same reasons.

  For the former Yugoslavia its going to be more complex.  I think both Bosnia and Kosovo are going to end up independent states fairly quickly as there's nothing really to keep them attached to Yugoslavia regardless of what the Serbs in control of the military in those provinces may wish.  It could however get very bloody with ethnic cleansing by possibly all sides and would more clearly be an area where NATO is likely to intervene and Bosnia is likely to be a long running sore.  I think there are relatively few Serbs in Kosovo so its likely it would become a Muslim state with the Serbs evacuated to either Bosnia or the rump Yugoslavia.  The latter is likely to break up more quickly as with the new lake where the two provinces were there's very little connecting the Croats and Slovenians to the Serb dominated southern core of the former Yugoslavia. 

  Anyway initial thoughts.  Bosnia could be a long running issue but largely separate from the fate of the former Yugoslav state and its likely that there's no actual conflict in the ME - at least not over the Iraqi occupation of the lands that replaced Kuwait.  If Kuwait no longer has oil it could end up a failed state if things go badly, which might prompt intervention by some combination of Iran, Saudi and the US, with possibly even Pakistan trying to have an input.

[raharris1973]

And here is a second, more dramatic ASB scenario.

What if the ASBs do even more 'terraforming' in June 1990, that happens to fall on human political lines:

Here is what they do in the Pacific Rim:
www.flickr.com/photos/22187058@N03/54161997233/in/photostream/lightbox/

They put a very wide oceanic straight at the Korean DMZ, separating North and South Korea by over 100-200 km of open water, moving the ROK straight south. And they widen the Taiwan strait, and really the distance between the PRC and its offshore islands, and any ROC occupied islands, including the Penghus, Quemoy/Jinmen and Mazu/Matsu, by over a thousand kilometers, with Taiwan now far to the east, near the longitude of the Bonin islands like Iwo Jima and Chichi Jima.

www.flickr.com/photos/22187058@N03/54160851737/in/photostream/lightbox/

But this is pretty superficial, as compared to the further plastic reconstructive surgery done to Europe and the Middle East:

Israel is separated from its occupied territories by a water margin, with both leftover sides protected by high, sturdy sea-walls wherever they are needed. The southern Arabian peninsula, marked off by the northern Saudi border, is separated by a non-trivial strait of water from Iraq and Jordan.

Quite dramatically for the future of Europe, the 1990 western union republics of the USSR, the Baltics, Moldova, Belarus and Ukraine are separated from Russia and Crimea by a wide strait. Except the Kaliningrad enclave is teleported east and makes for a skinny land bridge between the RFSR and Belarus. Georgia and the Chechen Autonomous republic of Russia are also teleported into the middle of the Black Sea and separated from any land connections with other states.

Now in this global map, US DoD, and US alliances, have no cause for most armed interventions of the 1990s - Desert Shield/Desert Storm, the Taiwan Straits Crisis, Iraq sanctions maintenance. Less for armed posturing - no Taiwan straits crisis. North Korea may be a nonproliferation concern, but less urgent concern about a peninsular hot war. No Yugoslav wars for America or NATO. The anti-Russian strategic rationale for NATO expansion seems less credible with the water separation, lack of Yugoslav wars, and probable lack of even Chechen war. US needs for contingency forces and planning are reduced in Europe, the Pacific Rim and Persian Gulf. The Middle East peace process becomes less urgent for the US as it becomes an ultimately doomed power projection exercise by Israel to prop up tiny settler communities amidst hostile populations across the water.