futurist
Banned
Banned
Posts: 837
Likes: 12
|
Post by futurist on Jun 20, 2016 5:03:13 GMT
What would a war between the 2016 Polish Army (which is teleported back in time to 1939 Poland and given a logistical link to the present-day (2016)) and the 1939 Nazi German Army look like?
Any thoughts on this?
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 23,527
Likes: 12,118
|
Post by stevep on Jun 20, 2016 18:35:16 GMT
Without checking on the status of the current Polish army [as I don't have time at the moment] I'm not certain but suspect it would be STOMP and a certain Georgian saying "pact to partition Poland, nothing to do with me." Especially with the logisical link and the presumed presence of the downtime Polish forces as well to help make up the numbers I can't see it ending well for the Nazis. Especially since once the western allies realised what was happening it might make them take action as well. Although it would be somewhat disorientating for the uptime Poles as they will have to conquer much of their 'homeland' as I suspect many will come from areas than in 39 were parts of Germany.
|
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 65,025
Likes: 46,239
|
Post by lordroel on Jun 20, 2016 18:41:05 GMT
What would a war between the 2016 Polish Army (which is teleported back in time to 1939 Poland and given a logistical link to the present-day (2016)) and the 1939 Nazi German Army look like? Any thoughts on this? The Polish Army of 2016 outguns the 1939 German army with tanks and technology, this is going to be a hard battle but in the end the Germans are defeated, now is the question, is Stalin still going to invade Poland after he hears reports of a modern army defeating the German Army.
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 23,527
Likes: 12,118
|
Post by stevep on Jun 20, 2016 21:31:07 GMT
That's what I meant about a certain Georgian's reaction. Presuming his subordinates actually give him accurate reports on what's happening in Poland I can't see him sticking his neck out, especially if the western powers pile in against Germany.
|
|
spanishspy
Fleet admiral
Posts: 10,366
Likes: 1,586
|
Post by spanishspy on Jun 21, 2016 12:56:08 GMT
That's what I meant about a certain Georgian's reaction. Presuming his subordinates actually give him accurate reports on what's happening in Poland I can't see him sticking his neck out, especially if the western powers pile in against Germany. Poland is going to be a force to be reckoned with. If it's today's Poland that was ISOTed, you could see it leading a war by the West against the Soviet Union.
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 23,527
Likes: 12,118
|
Post by stevep on Jun 21, 2016 16:15:07 GMT
I don't know about this. If they have the 1939 borders as mentioned in the OP then they already have more non-Poles than they can really handle. If its the 2016 Polish state then they already have destroyed the bulk of the German forces attacking them simply by appearing.
|
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 65,025
Likes: 46,239
|
Post by lordroel on Jun 21, 2016 16:22:58 GMT
I don't know about this. If they have the 1939 borders as mentioned in the OP then they already have more non-Poles than they can really handle. If its the 2016 Polish state then they already have destroyed the bulk of the German forces attacking them simply by appearing. So far i can read the first post of futurist mention only, the 2016 Polish Army is transported back to 1939, not the country 2016 Poland.
|
|
futurist
Banned
Banned
Posts: 837
Likes: 12
|
Post by futurist on Jun 22, 2016 7:41:25 GMT
1. Without checking on the status of the current Polish army [as I don't have time at the moment] I'm not certain but suspect it would be STOMP and a certain Georgian saying "pact to partition Poland, nothing to do with me." 2. Especially with the logisical link and the presumed presence of the downtime Polish forces as well to help make up the numbers I can't see it ending well for the Nazis. Especially since once the western allies realised what was happening it might make them take action as well. Although it would be somewhat disorientating for the uptime Poles as they will have to conquer much of their 'homeland' as I suspect many will come from areas than in 39 were parts of Germany. 1. Completely agreed. 2. Out of curiosity--do you think that Poland will still aim for the Oder-(Western) Neisse Line as its western border in this scenario? If so, then do you think that Poland will want to expel the millions of ethnic Germans who are living east of this line? If so, then what do you think Britain's and France's reaction to this is going to be? Any thoughts on all of this? Also, though, for the record, the Polish Army in this scenario can not only get additional supplies through this logistical link to 2016, but also additional troops.
|
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 65,025
Likes: 46,239
|
Post by lordroel on Jun 22, 2016 13:58:50 GMT
1. Without checking on the status of the current Polish army [as I don't have time at the moment] I'm not certain but suspect it would be STOMP and a certain Georgian saying "pact to partition Poland, nothing to do with me." 2. Especially with the logisical link and the presumed presence of the downtime Polish forces as well to help make up the numbers I can't see it ending well for the Nazis. Especially since once the western allies realised what was happening it might make them take action as well. Although it would be somewhat disorientating for the uptime Poles as they will have to conquer much of their 'homeland' as I suspect many will come from areas than in 39 were parts of Germany. 1. Completely agreed. 2. Out of curiosity--do you think that Poland will still aim for the Oder-(Western) Neisse Line as its western border in this scenario? If so, then do you think that Poland will want to expel the millions of ethnic Germans who are living east of this line? If so, then what do you think Britain's and France's reaction to this is going to be? Any thoughts on all of this? Also, though, for the record, the Polish Army in this scenario can not only get additional supplies through this logistical link to 2016, but also additional troops. I would think Poland will try to get as much as Germany as possible.
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 23,527
Likes: 12,118
|
Post by stevep on Jun 22, 2016 15:46:24 GMT
1. Without checking on the status of the current Polish army [as I don't have time at the moment] I'm not certain but suspect it would be STOMP and a certain Georgian saying "pact to partition Poland, nothing to do with me." 2. Especially with the logisical link and the presumed presence of the downtime Polish forces as well to help make up the numbers I can't see it ending well for the Nazis. Especially since once the western allies realised what was happening it might make them take action as well. Although it would be somewhat disorientating for the uptime Poles as they will have to conquer much of their 'homeland' as I suspect many will come from areas than in 39 were parts of Germany. 1. Completely agreed. 2. Out of curiosity--do you think that Poland will still aim for the Oder-(Western) Neisse Line as its western border in this scenario? If so, then do you think that Poland will want to expel the millions of ethnic Germans who are living east of this line? If so, then what do you think Britain's and France's reaction to this is going to be? Any thoughts on all of this? Also, though, for the record, the Polish Army in this scenario can not only get additional supplies through this logistical link to 2016, but also additional troops. Good question. To the up-time Poles who make up the bulk of the forces smashing the German army those are Polish territory and probably a lot of them have [in 2016] their homes there. At the same time they would realise the problems of how a forced deportation of ~10M Germans would look to the 1939 world and the problem that they wouldn't know for sure what Stalin would do. Also can they return home? I would assume so from the OP about being able to get supplies and reinforcements there. This would clearly imply this is a parallel world as otherwise their home wouldn't exist if there was just one universe with its history changed. How many would want to stay in 39 Poland rather than return home, especially since they might not know whether the link between the two would continue to exist once the crisis is over. As such I would say the logical thing would be to defeat the Germans, seek to deter the Soviets and probably take over Danzig and E Prussia so they have a secure coastline. Which would still mean a lot of Germans being expelled but wouldn't be too extreme for the other down-timers and hence make Poland a pariah. It would however mean Poland was vulnerable to possibly attacks by a more powerful and more heavily populated Germany but then that's going to be the case unless the up-timers stay permamently in large numbers. Possibly also seek to boost Poland's security by workiung for the restoration of Czechoslovakia and disarming of Germany with possibly other border changes? Very difficult problem and I'm not sure there is a right answer.
|
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 65,025
Likes: 46,239
|
Post by lordroel on Jun 22, 2016 16:00:20 GMT
1. Completely agreed. 2. Out of curiosity--do you think that Poland will still aim for the Oder-(Western) Neisse Line as its western border in this scenario? If so, then do you think that Poland will want to expel the millions of ethnic Germans who are living east of this line? If so, then what do you think Britain's and France's reaction to this is going to be? Any thoughts on all of this? Also, though, for the record, the Polish Army in this scenario can not only get additional supplies through this logistical link to 2016, but also additional troops. Good question. To the up-time Poles who make up the bulk of the forces smashing the German army those are Polish territory and probably a lot of them have [in 2016] their homes there. At the same time they would realise the problems of how a forced deportation of ~10M Germans would look to the 1939 world and the problem that they wouldn't know for sure what Stalin would do. Also can they return home? I would assume so from the OP about being able to get supplies and reinforcements there. This would clearly imply this is a parallel world as otherwise their home wouldn't exist if there was just one universe with its history changed. How many would want to stay in 39 Poland rather than return home, especially since they might not know whether the link between the two would continue to exist once the crisis is over. As such I would say the logical thing would be to defeat the Germans, seek to deter the Soviets and probably take over Danzig and E Prussia so they have a secure coastline. Which would still mean a lot of Germans being expelled but wouldn't be too extreme for the other down-timers and hence make Poland a pariah. It would however mean Poland was vulnerable to possibly attacks by a more powerful and more heavily populated Germany but then that's going to be the case unless the up-timers stay permamently in large numbers. Possibly also seek to boost Poland's security by workiung for the restoration of Czechoslovakia and disarming of Germany with possibly other border changes? Very difficult problem and I'm not sure there is a right answer. It is strange that 2016 poland has good relation with 2016 Germany but thet are fighting 1939 Germany.
|
|
futurist
Banned
Banned
Posts: 837
Likes: 12
|
Post by futurist on Jun 23, 2016 6:33:49 GMT
1. Completely agreed. 2. Out of curiosity--do you think that Poland will still aim for the Oder-(Western) Neisse Line as its western border in this scenario? If so, then do you think that Poland will want to expel the millions of ethnic Germans who are living east of this line? If so, then what do you think Britain's and France's reaction to this is going to be? Any thoughts on all of this? Also, though, for the record, the Polish Army in this scenario can not only get additional supplies through this logistical link to 2016, but also additional troops. 1. Good question. To the up-time Poles who make up the bulk of the forces smashing the German army those are Polish territory and probably a lot of them have [in 2016] their homes there. At the same time they would realise the problems of how a forced deportation of ~10M Germans would look to the 1939 world and the problem that they wouldn't know for sure what Stalin would do. 2. Also can they return home? I would assume so from the OP about being able to get supplies and reinforcements there. This would clearly imply this is a parallel world as otherwise their home wouldn't exist if there was just one universe with its history changed. How many would want to stay in 39 Poland rather than return home, especially since they might not know whether the link between the two would continue to exist once the crisis is over. 3. As such I would say the logical thing would be to defeat the Germans, seek to deter the Soviets and probably take over Danzig and E Prussia so they have a secure coastline. Which would still mean a lot of Germans being expelled but wouldn't be too extreme for the other down-timers and hence make Poland a pariah. 4. It would however mean Poland was vulnerable to possibly attacks by a more powerful and more heavily populated Germany but then that's going to be the case unless the up-timers stay permamently in large numbers. 5. Possibly also seek to boost Poland's security by workiung for the restoration of Czechoslovakia 6. and disarming of Germany with possibly other border changes? 7. Very difficult problem and I'm not sure there is a right answer. 1. Wouldn't Stalin simply sit on his butt and not do anything in such a scenario, though? 2. Yes, they (as in, all of them) can certainly return home. 3. What about also taking over Eastern Pomerania and Polish-majority Upper Silesia, though? 4. What about if 1939 (or 1940, or 1941, et cetera) Poland will continue to have a connection to 2016 (or 2017, or 2018, et cetera) Poland, though? Indeed, in such a scenario, wouldn't it be utter suicide for Germany to invade Poland ever again? 5. Restoring Czechoslovakia would certainly help with this. However, the problem is that I would presume that a majority of the Sudeten Germans will prefer to live in Germany rather than in Czechoslovakia and thus might end up being perpetual fifth columnists if they will be put into Czechoslovakia. Of course, expelling 3 million Sudeten German certainly isn't going to be pretty either. 6. Germany already lost almost all of its non-German areas after the end of World War I in real life, though. Thus, without large-scale expulsions, Germany simply doesn't have many additional territories to lose after the end of World War II in this scenario. 7. Well, in addition to keeping its link to the present-day, Poland can insist that France annex the coal-rich Saar(land) and expel all of the ethnic Germans who are living there. Indeed, at least the Saar(land) only contains several hundreds of thousands rather than several million ethnic Germans.
|
|
futurist
Banned
Banned
Posts: 837
Likes: 12
|
Post by futurist on Jun 23, 2016 6:34:56 GMT
Good question. To the up-time Poles who make up the bulk of the forces smashing the German army those are Polish territory and probably a lot of them have [in 2016] their homes there. At the same time they would realise the problems of how a forced deportation of ~10M Germans would look to the 1939 world and the problem that they wouldn't know for sure what Stalin would do. Also can they return home? I would assume so from the OP about being able to get supplies and reinforcements there. This would clearly imply this is a parallel world as otherwise their home wouldn't exist if there was just one universe with its history changed. How many would want to stay in 39 Poland rather than return home, especially since they might not know whether the link between the two would continue to exist once the crisis is over. As such I would say the logical thing would be to defeat the Germans, seek to deter the Soviets and probably take over Danzig and E Prussia so they have a secure coastline. Which would still mean a lot of Germans being expelled but wouldn't be too extreme for the other down-timers and hence make Poland a pariah. It would however mean Poland was vulnerable to possibly attacks by a more powerful and more heavily populated Germany but then that's going to be the case unless the up-timers stay permamently in large numbers. Possibly also seek to boost Poland's security by workiung for the restoration of Czechoslovakia and disarming of Germany with possibly other border changes? Very difficult problem and I'm not sure there is a right answer. It is strange that 2016 poland has good relation with 2016 Germany but thet are fighting 1939 Germany. That's because the word "Nazi" certainly sends a shiver down every good, decent person's spine!
|
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 23,527
Likes: 12,118
|
Post by stevep on Jun 23, 2016 16:04:31 GMT
1. Good question. To the up-time Poles who make up the bulk of the forces smashing the German army those are Polish territory and probably a lot of them have [in 2016] their homes there. At the same time they would realise the problems of how a forced deportation of ~10M Germans would look to the 1939 world and the problem that they wouldn't know for sure what Stalin would do. 2. Also can they return home? I would assume so from the OP about being able to get supplies and reinforcements there. This would clearly imply this is a parallel world as otherwise their home wouldn't exist if there was just one universe with its history changed. How many would want to stay in 39 Poland rather than return home, especially since they might not know whether the link between the two would continue to exist once the crisis is over. 3. As such I would say the logical thing would be to defeat the Germans, seek to deter the Soviets and probably take over Danzig and E Prussia so they have a secure coastline. Which would still mean a lot of Germans being expelled but wouldn't be too extreme for the other down-timers and hence make Poland a pariah. 4. It would however mean Poland was vulnerable to possibly attacks by a more powerful and more heavily populated Germany but then that's going to be the case unless the up-timers stay permamently in large numbers. 5. Possibly also seek to boost Poland's security by workiung for the restoration of Czechoslovakia 6. and disarming of Germany with possibly other border changes? 7. Very difficult problem and I'm not sure there is a right answer. 1. Wouldn't Stalin simply sit on his butt and not do anything in such a scenario, though? 2. Yes, they (as in, all of them) can certainly return home. 3. What about also taking over Eastern Pomerania and Polish-majority Upper Silesia, though? 4. What about if 1939 (or 1940, or 1941, et cetera) Poland will continue to have a connection to 2016 (or 2017, or 2018, et cetera) Poland, though? Indeed, in such a scenario, wouldn't it be utter suicide for Germany to invade Poland ever again? 5. Restoring Czechoslovakia would certainly help with this. However, the problem is that I would presume that a majority of the Sudeten Germans will prefer to live in Germany rather than in Czechoslovakia and thus might end up being perpetual fifth columnists if they will be put into Czechoslovakia. Of course, expelling 3 million Sudeten German certainly isn't going to be pretty either. 6. Germany already lost almost all of its non-German areas after the end of World War I in real life, though. Thus, without large-scale expulsions, Germany simply doesn't have many additional territories to lose after the end of World War II in this scenario. 7. Well, in addition to keeping its link to the present-day, Poland can insist that France annex the coal-rich Saar(land) and expel all of the ethnic Germans who are living there. Indeed, at least the Saar(land) only contains several hundreds of thousands rather than several million ethnic Germans. 1) I suspect that once Stalin gained some idea what's happening, at least that the Poles were 'owning' the German military in no uncertain terms he would get very cautious. However how quickly this information filters up the Soviet system - comrade Stalin, you backed the wrong side is not something his underlings are likely to tell him quickly. Also while he might decide such its not going to be at least 17-9-39 before the Poles know that the Red Army isn't going to be storming across the borders. 2) In that case while I would expect some tech transfers and possibly some visits while the link lasts I wouldn't think many up-timers would stay long once the Nazi threat was removed. 3) Possibly areas which are Polish majority but as you say most of the areas with non-German populations were removed from Germany in 1919. I was thinking of E Prussia and Danzig as it gives Poland a much more secure access to the sea and removes the problem of the Polish corridoor which isolated E Prussia from the rest of Germany, which is always likely to be a source of tension. 4) Would either up-time or down-time Poles know for sure this was going to happen? Also there is bound to be some technological drift to the 39 world and while the Poles would seek to limit that to down-time Poland as much as possible some information would leak out. Thus, since they are parallel worlds, the 1939 Earth would gradually catch up in the 1016 one. This wouldn't be a serious problem for the Poles for a couple of decades at least but even knowing certain things are possible would be a considerable boost to the technology, as well as the concern every other nation would have about being so far behind Poland. 5, 6 & 7 - there aren't any simple solutions here. Even after the battering and land loss it took OTL German is still the dominant European power economically and demographically west of Russia.
|
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 65,025
Likes: 46,239
|
Post by lordroel on Jun 23, 2016 16:48:43 GMT
1) Stalin even had warning before Barbarossa began, he is just only a person who act if it is in the best interest of him.
|
|