The future of Zionism in a no-Fall-of-France scenario

[futurist]

If France doesn't fall in 1940 (or later), what would the post-World War II "future" of Zionism have looked like?

Any thoughts on this?

[futurist]

Also, for the record, I would like to point out that, even in a worst-case scenario here, "only" 1-2 million Jews would have been killed in the Holocaust in this TL (in comparison to our TL's 6 million Jews). In turn, this might mean that there would be less support for Zionism in this TL than there was in our TL.

[lordroel]

Jul 6, 2016 2:55:53 GMT futurist said:

If France doesn't fall in 1940 (or later), what would the post-World War II "future" of Zionism have looked like?

Any thoughts on this?

How do you plan to do that, Germany will invade if Hitler is in charge of the country, he had a score to settle with France.

[stevep]

Could be better leadership by France/Britain or say the Germans stick to their original attack plan, which was what the allies expected and are stopped dead with heavy losses then Germany might be defeated by 1941-42, especially if there is internal unrest in Germany.

There will be less Jews killed although more will be trapped in the enlarged Soviet Union. Presuming the allied don't clash with the Soviets, as I expect they will feel their done enough taking out the Nazis the reduced death toll and lack of the industrial scale organised killings will definitely mean less post-war sympathy. The idea that Britain shouldn't restrict immigration to Palestine is unlikely to gain influence and the US, not having been involved in the war is going to have a lot less influence.

[futurist]

Jul 6, 2016 13:52:36 GMT lordroel said:

Jul 6, 2016 2:55:53 GMT futurist said:

If France doesn't fall in 1940 (or later), what would the post-World War II "future" of Zionism have looked like?

Any thoughts on this?

How do you plan to do that, Germany will invade if Hitler is in charge of the country, he had a score to settle with France.

By keeping France keep its strategic reserve at Rheims instead of sending it over to the Low Countries. Indeed, that should halt the Manstein Plan in its tracks (at the Ardennes, of course).

[futurist]

Jul 6, 2016 18:43:36 GMT stevep said:

1. Could be better leadership by France/Britain or say the Germans stick to their original attack plan, which was what the allies expected and are stopped dead with heavy losses then Germany might be defeated by 1941-42, especially if there is internal unrest in Germany.

2. There will be less Jews killed although more will be trapped in the enlarged Soviet Union.

3. Presuming the allied don't clash with the Soviets, as I expect they will feel their done enough taking out the Nazis

4. the reduced death toll and lack of the industrial scale organised killings will definitely mean less post-war sympathy.

5. The idea that Britain shouldn't restrict immigration to Palestine is unlikely to gain influence and the US, not having been involved in the war is going to have a lot less influence.

1. Yep--have France keep its strategic reserve at Rheims as per the original plan instead of sending it to the Low Countries.

2. Completely agreed. Also, though, if the war in the West lasts long enough, Stalin might decide to, say, partition Romania with Hungary and partition Yugoslavia with both Hungary and Italy (as well as to create a Soviet puppet state in Bulgaria, of course). Indeed, when you have three revanchist and aggressive dictators (Stalin, Horthy, and Mussolini) in Southern and Eastern Europe, this region might literally be in for a lot of pain starting from the early 1940s if the war in the West doesn't end fast enough.

3. Completely agreed--at least if Stalin doesn't go too far.

4. Completely agreed.

5. Completely agreed. However, the Zionist Jews who are already in Palestine can still try launching an insurgency against both Britain and any new Palestinian government. Indeed, due to the fact that Britain appears to have largely destroyed the military power of the Palestinian Arabs during the Great Arab Revolt of 1936-1939, the Zionist Jews might very well have an initial advantage in such an insurgency.

Of course, the key question here is this--would these Zionists actually be able to acquire large-scale support from at least one Great Power (such as the Soviet Union)? If not, then I suspect that these Zionists might get overwhelmed and defeated after achieving initial large-scale victories and after several years of conflict with neighboring Arab countries and armies.

[lordroel]

Aug 3, 2016 4:37:20 GMT futurist said:

5. Completely agreed. However, the Zionist Jews who are already in Palestine can still try launching an insurgency against both Britain and any new Palestinian government. Indeed, due to the fact that Britain appears to have largely destroyed the military power of the Palestinian Arabs during the Great Arab Revolt of 1936-1939, the Zionist Jews might very well have an initial advantage in such an insurgency.

Of course, the key question here is this--would these Zionists actually be able to acquire large-scale support from at least one Great Power (such as the Soviet Union)? If not, then I suspect that these Zionists might get overwhelmed and defeated after achieving initial large-scale victories and after several years of conflict with neighboring Arab countries and armies.

That would be nice to see a independent communist Jewish state.

[futurist]

Aug 3, 2016 14:09:36 GMT lordroel said:

Aug 3, 2016 4:37:20 GMT futurist said:

5. Completely agreed. However, the Zionist Jews who are already in Palestine can still try launching an insurgency against both Britain and any new Palestinian government. Indeed, due to the fact that Britain appears to have largely destroyed the military power of the Palestinian Arabs during the Great Arab Revolt of 1936-1939, the Zionist Jews might very well have an initial advantage in such an insurgency.

Of course, the key question here is this--would these Zionists actually be able to acquire large-scale support from at least one Great Power (such as the Soviet Union)? If not, then I suspect that these Zionists might get overwhelmed and defeated after achieving initial large-scale victories and after several years of conflict with neighboring Arab countries and armies.

That would be nice to see a independent communist Jewish state.

Yeah, the Zionists might be compelled to do this if it is necessary to ensure Israel's long-term survival. Of course, the Zionists might also need to adopt extremely restrictive Soviet-style emigration policies in order to prevent Jews from emigrating from Israel en masse.