Post by futurist on Aug 5, 2016 1:20:30 GMT
Here is the scenario: As a result of campaigning more in Florida as well as talking more about the U.S. economy during the 2000 campaign, Al Gore has a very narrow lead in Florida during the Florida recount process. After the recounts are completed, Al Gore emerges as the winner of Florida by a margin of 1,435 votes. After several court/legal challenges, George W. Bush realizes that the fight is hopeless and thus concedes the 2000 election to Al Gore in December 2000.
9/11 still occurs in this scenario. Afterwards, after some unsuccessful attempts at diplomacy with the Taliban, President Gore invades Afghanistan, overthrows the Taliban, and helps install a Northern Alliance-led democratic government in Afghanistan (however, the Taliban insurgency remains a problem for the U.S. and for the new Afghan government for years to come
). Meanwhile, President Gore uses the post-9/11 international goodwill towards the U.S. to improve relations with Iran (after all, both the U.S. and Iran deeply hate Saddam Hussein) as well as to reinvigorate the international sanctions regime on Saddam Hussein's Iraq. In 2004, President Gore narrowly wins re-election over Republican U.S. Senator John McCain. As a result of the 2008 recession and financial crisis, Republican U.S. Senator George Allen defeats Democratic U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election. Meanwhile, after an unsuccessful policy of austerity, President George Allen is defeated for re-election in 2012 by U.S. Senator Barack Obama.
The Arab Spring still breaks out in 2010-2011 in this scenario. In Iraq, Saddam Hussein successfully holds on to power in the early stage of the Arab Spring due to the fact that Iraq's Shiite population still has extremely sharp memories of the brutality that they endured at Saddam Hussein's hands back in the 1990s and thus are unwilling to risk a repeat of that brutality (frankly, think of Algeria during the Arab Spring in real life). Indeed, the small-scale Iraqi Shiite rebellions that do break out in Iraq during the Arab Spring are swiftly and brutally crushed by Saddam Hussein's forces. Meanwhile, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad experiences a large-scale rebellion by his own Sunni Arab population. Feeling emboldened by his own quick crushing of the Arab Spring in Iraq, Saddam Hussein decides to actively and energetically support the Sunni Arab Syrian rebels (with large amounts of money and also with "volunteer" troops from Iraq) in order to try toppling Assad and thus in order to end Iran's "encirclement" of Iraq (after all, Assad is an Iranian ally). Once Iran finds out about this, it quickly orders Saddam Hussein to stop sponsoring the Sunni Arab rebels in Syria. In response to this, Saddam Hussein simply denies all of the Iranian allegations against Iraq. However, after Iranian intelligence confirms that Saddam Hussein's Iraq is continuing to fund Syria's Sunni Arab rebels and even to provide Iraqi "volunteer" troops to help them out, Iran decides that enough is enough. In 2013, Iran gives Iraq an ultimatum: Either stop funding Syria's Sunni Arab rebels or prepare to get overthrown yourself. Once again, Saddam Hussein, believing that Iran's government wouldn't have the nerve to go to war against Iraq just several years after it endured a legitimacy crisis as a result of the disputed re-election of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (in 2009), denies all of Iran's allegations against Iraq.
In response to this, Iran quickly invades Iraq. In this war, Iran wins numerous lopsided military victories against Iraq--something that is certainly unsurprising due to the impact of over two decades of large-scale international sanctions against Iraq. After a couple of months, Iran reaches and successfully captures Baghdad. Afterwards, Iran begins advancing towards Sunni Arab-majority Iraqi cities such as Fallujah and Ramadi. In response to this, Saudi Arabia, the other Gulf states, Jordan, and Egypt (though, in Egypt's case, President Sisi is too busy fighting and crushing the Muslim Brotherhood at home to contribute a lot of Egyptian troops to this military campaign) give Iran an ultimatum to halt its advance into Iraq; else, they would go to war against Iran. Since Iran declines to halt its advance into Iraq, these countries (Saudi Arabia, Jordan, et cetera) quickly go to war against Iran and send their own troops into both Syria and Iraq. In response to these developments in the Middle East, President Obama warns Iran and Syria that any attempts to annex or separate the territory of U.S. allies (Saudi Arabia, Jordan, et cetera) would be met with a U.S. military response. For the time being, though, President Obama announces U.S. military neutrality in this war.
Anyway, how exactly do you think that this war would ultimately turn out? Also, what exactly do you think that Russia will do in response to this war?
Any thoughts on all of this?
9/11 still occurs in this scenario. Afterwards, after some unsuccessful attempts at diplomacy with the Taliban, President Gore invades Afghanistan, overthrows the Taliban, and helps install a Northern Alliance-led democratic government in Afghanistan (however, the Taliban insurgency remains a problem for the U.S. and for the new Afghan government for years to come
). Meanwhile, President Gore uses the post-9/11 international goodwill towards the U.S. to improve relations with Iran (after all, both the U.S. and Iran deeply hate Saddam Hussein) as well as to reinvigorate the international sanctions regime on Saddam Hussein's Iraq. In 2004, President Gore narrowly wins re-election over Republican U.S. Senator John McCain. As a result of the 2008 recession and financial crisis, Republican U.S. Senator George Allen defeats Democratic U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election. Meanwhile, after an unsuccessful policy of austerity, President George Allen is defeated for re-election in 2012 by U.S. Senator Barack Obama.The Arab Spring still breaks out in 2010-2011 in this scenario. In Iraq, Saddam Hussein successfully holds on to power in the early stage of the Arab Spring due to the fact that Iraq's Shiite population still has extremely sharp memories of the brutality that they endured at Saddam Hussein's hands back in the 1990s and thus are unwilling to risk a repeat of that brutality (frankly, think of Algeria during the Arab Spring in real life). Indeed, the small-scale Iraqi Shiite rebellions that do break out in Iraq during the Arab Spring are swiftly and brutally crushed by Saddam Hussein's forces. Meanwhile, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad experiences a large-scale rebellion by his own Sunni Arab population. Feeling emboldened by his own quick crushing of the Arab Spring in Iraq, Saddam Hussein decides to actively and energetically support the Sunni Arab Syrian rebels (with large amounts of money and also with "volunteer" troops from Iraq) in order to try toppling Assad and thus in order to end Iran's "encirclement" of Iraq (after all, Assad is an Iranian ally). Once Iran finds out about this, it quickly orders Saddam Hussein to stop sponsoring the Sunni Arab rebels in Syria. In response to this, Saddam Hussein simply denies all of the Iranian allegations against Iraq. However, after Iranian intelligence confirms that Saddam Hussein's Iraq is continuing to fund Syria's Sunni Arab rebels and even to provide Iraqi "volunteer" troops to help them out, Iran decides that enough is enough. In 2013, Iran gives Iraq an ultimatum: Either stop funding Syria's Sunni Arab rebels or prepare to get overthrown yourself. Once again, Saddam Hussein, believing that Iran's government wouldn't have the nerve to go to war against Iraq just several years after it endured a legitimacy crisis as a result of the disputed re-election of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (in 2009), denies all of Iran's allegations against Iraq.
In response to this, Iran quickly invades Iraq. In this war, Iran wins numerous lopsided military victories against Iraq--something that is certainly unsurprising due to the impact of over two decades of large-scale international sanctions against Iraq. After a couple of months, Iran reaches and successfully captures Baghdad. Afterwards, Iran begins advancing towards Sunni Arab-majority Iraqi cities such as Fallujah and Ramadi. In response to this, Saudi Arabia, the other Gulf states, Jordan, and Egypt (though, in Egypt's case, President Sisi is too busy fighting and crushing the Muslim Brotherhood at home to contribute a lot of Egyptian troops to this military campaign) give Iran an ultimatum to halt its advance into Iraq; else, they would go to war against Iran. Since Iran declines to halt its advance into Iraq, these countries (Saudi Arabia, Jordan, et cetera) quickly go to war against Iran and send their own troops into both Syria and Iraq. In response to these developments in the Middle East, President Obama warns Iran and Syria that any attempts to annex or separate the territory of U.S. allies (Saudi Arabia, Jordan, et cetera) would be met with a U.S. military response. For the time being, though, President Obama announces U.S. military neutrality in this war.
Anyway, how exactly do you think that this war would ultimately turn out? Also, what exactly do you think that Russia will do in response to this war?
Any thoughts on all of this?