Russia's Current Population Without WWI, WWII, & Bolshevism?

[futurist]

What do you think Russia's current population would be without World War I, World War II, and Bolshevism (as well as all of the consequences of Bolshevism, obviously)?



Any thoughts on this?



As for me, I think that Russia's current population in this scenario would probably be somewhere between 500 and 600 million. Indeed, this paper argues that, even within its post-1991 our TL borders, Russia would have a population of between 260 and 280 million at the start of the 21st century without World War I, World War II, and Bolshevism:



www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol4/9/4-9.pdf



Plus, without Bolshevism, the various areas and territories of (Greater) Russia would probably have no legal right of secession and thus Russia will probably keep at least most of the Russian Empire's territories all of the way up to the present-day in a no-Bolshevism scenario. In turn, since the total population of the Soviet Union (a.k.a. Greater Russia) in our TL was about two times larger than the population of the Russian SFSR (as in, Russia within its post-1991 borders), I think that it is pretty safe to say that the total population of Russia in this TL would be about twice the population of "rump Russia" (as in, Russia within its post-1991 borders in our TL). In turn, this means that if "rump Russia's" population would have currently been between 260 and 280 million people in this TL, Russia's total population would have probably currently been somewhere between 500 and 600 million people.



Anyway, any thoughts on all of this?

[futurist]

Indeed, if you want to take a look at these calculations in a different way, then here you go:

-Without its collapse its 1991, the Soviet Union's current population would probably be around 350 million.
-Without being involved in World War II (such as if France didn't fall in 1940 or afterwards), and to elaborate on my previous point above, the Soviet Union's current population would probably be around 430 million.
-Without Stalin's purges, mass killings, mass deportations to gulags, and mass collectivization, without the Russian Civil War, and without World War I, and to elaborate on my two previous points above, the Soviet Union's current population would probably be around 500-530 million.

[lordroel]

Aug 27, 2016 23:42:17 GMT futurist said:

Indeed, if you want to take a look at these calculations in a different way, then here you go:

-Without its collapse its 1991, the Soviet Union's current population would probably be around 350 million.
-Without being involved in World War II (such as if France didn't fall in 1940 or afterwards), and to elaborate on my previous point above, the Soviet Union's current population would probably be around 430 million.
-Without Stalin's purges, mass killings, mass deportations to gulags, and mass collectivization, without the Russian Civil War, and without World War I, and to elaborate on my two previous points above, the Soviet Union's current population would probably be around 500-530 million.

The number could be higer as you forget people who died in WWI, WWII and Bolshevism also have children who also have children and so on, so the number of people in Russia could be higher than 350 million.

[futurist]

Aug 28, 2016 7:07:20 GMT lordroel said:

Aug 27, 2016 23:42:17 GMT futurist said:

Indeed, if you want to take a look at these calculations in a different way, then here you go:

-Without its collapse its 1991, the Soviet Union's current population would probably be around 350 million.
-Without being involved in World War II (such as if France didn't fall in 1940 or afterwards), and to elaborate on my previous point above, the Soviet Union's current population would probably be around 430 million.
-Without Stalin's purges, mass killings, mass deportations to gulags, and mass collectivization, without the Russian Civil War, and without World War I, and to elaborate on my two previous points above, the Soviet Union's current population would probably be around 500-530 million.

The number could be higer as you forget people who died in WWI, WWII and Bolshevism also have children who also have children and so on, so the number of people in Russia could be higher than 350 million.

Actually, I certainly took that fact into account in my (extremely primitive) calculations here.

[lordroel]

Aug 28, 2016 18:52:35 GMT futurist said:

Aug 28, 2016 7:07:20 GMT lordroel said:

The number could be higer as you forget people who died in WWI, WWII and Bolshevism also have children who also have children and so on, so the number of people in Russia could be higher than 350 million.

Actually, I certainly took that fact into account in my (extremely primitive) calculations here.

Well that is almost 200 million more than there are living now in Russia, some cities like Moscow must be really big cities then with huge number of people living there.

[futurist]

Aug 28, 2016 19:01:24 GMT lordroel said:

Aug 28, 2016 18:52:35 GMT futurist said:

Actually, I certainly took that fact into account in my (extremely primitive) calculations here.

Well that is almost 200 million more than there are living now in Russia, some cities like Moscow must be really big cities then with huge number of people living there.

Or perhaps more Russians will simply live in other cities and thus make some, if not many, if those cities extremely populous.

[lordroel]

Aug 29, 2016 3:09:15 GMT futurist said:

Aug 28, 2016 19:01:24 GMT lordroel said:

Well that is almost 200 million more than there are living now in Russia, some cities like Moscow must be really big cities then with huge number of people living there.

Or perhaps more Russians will simply live in other cities and thus make some, if not many, if those cities extremely populous.

Yes there might be more cities in Russia than there are now.

[futurist]

Aug 29, 2016 3:14:40 GMT lordroel said:

Aug 29, 2016 3:09:15 GMT futurist said:

Or perhaps more Russians will simply live in other cities and thus make some, if not many, if those cities extremely populous.

Yes there might be more cities in Russia than there are now.

Yes; correct! Plus, due to Russia's greater (territorial) size in this TL, aspiring urban dwellers would also be able to move to cities such as Kiev, Minsk, Riga, et cetera.

[lordroel]

Aug 29, 2016 18:45:19 GMT futurist said:

Aug 29, 2016 3:14:40 GMT lordroel said:

Yes there might be more cities in Russia than there are now.

Yes; correct! Plus, due to Russia's greater (territorial) size in this TL, aspiring urban dwellers would also be able to move to cities such as Kiev, Minsk, Riga, et cetera.

Also do not forget with out WWI, WWII, & Bolshevism, many towns that where destroyed would still be intact, this means more towns ore even cities in Russia than there are in OTL.