What If: France Kept Fighting, a different WW II

[lordroel]

Aug 6, 2020 17:15:35 GMT archibald said:

French military and support industries

I know the Soviets did it and moved a lot to the East but they had years to do that and rebuild, how can the French move their military and support industries to Africa in such short of time, i assume sacrifice had to be made what should be brought over and what not.

[archibald]

A good point. The aircraft industry (at least part of it) is moved Ikea style, with great hopes to restart in Northern africa.

The cruel realty evident from the fall of 1940 however is that the Algerian industry (steel and other basic stuff) is close to non existing.

End result: Cash&carry followed by Lend-lease, massive buyouts of tanks and aircraft at Uncle Sam 's arsenal of democracies.

France chance here is that it kickstarted US industry out of lethargy right from 1938 with the Curtiss H75 DB-7 Martin 167F and plenty other aircraft.

[lordroel]

Aug 6, 2020 17:32:32 GMT archibald said:

A good point. The aircraft industry (at least part of it) is moved Ikea style, with great hopes to restart in Northern africa.

I toughed also that the aircraft industry would be the one to move, the tank industry is already under German occupation i assume depending on the date we speak off.

Also i assume everything in a naval base would be strip clean to the bone. 

[stevep]

Aug 6, 2020 17:15:35 GMT archibald said:

Aug 6, 2020 14:11:39 GMT lordroel said:

So who would lead a Free French in Africa, i do not think it has to be De Gaulle, could it be admiral Darlan ore is it a normal french government who sets up shop in Algiers.

In FFO we (literally !) kicked Reynaud in his... rear end and got him carrying on the fight. What follows is a "scorched Earth policy".

- anything of value that can be moved to North Africa, is moved

This includes

a) French armies

b) French banks, gold, newspapers, and the kitchen sink

c) French government and politics

d) French military and support industries

Basically anything that makes the basic strength of a nation.

Nothing of value is left in Pierre Laval hands. Laval, because Pétain blows an aneurysm in anger in June 1940 and dies in September.

- anything that can't be moved, is destroyed

- the lower end of the French Armies is ordered to delay the germans all the way from the Loire to the Pyrénées, starting from June 15.

- the high end of the French armies is moved to North Africa and immediately send crushing the italians.

Long before Rommel and Afrika Korps can rescue them (February 1941). The italians are toast and the fight is over by october 1940.

Without North Africa campaign lasting into May 1943, the main fight concentrate in the Mediterranean and Balkans.

And its becomes a huge butchering of warships: italian fleet vs French and RN. Also men, tanks, combat aircraft. A huge carnage.

The tipping point, the big clash between (OTL) Pétain / Vichysts and De Gaulle / Free French happens in the Chateau de Cangé near Tours on the Loire river on June 13, 1940 in the evening.

OTL Free French faction that wanted to carry on the fight from Algeria, win the day and starts moving to Algiers.

The losers will never go to Vichy for a simple reason. Since the fight doesn't stop on the Loire by June 22 (like OTL) but rather at the spanish frontier on August 8 - then there is no free zone / occupied zone.

The Germans takes the entire country and so there is no point for a bogus French state with a capital in Vichy.

Laval faction orphan of Pétain call itself the NEF - Nouvel Etat Français. It settles in Paris and is very similar to Quisling Norway:  a rump state.

Unlike OTL Vichy it has zero military gear left. What was not moved to Algiers, was destroyed delaying the Germans until August.

Unlike OTL Vichy France the NEF fighting strength is close from zero. In passing, the French fleet gets a far more interesting fate than OTL sheer misery. Losses are heavy but at least the warships die gloriously...

  archibald,

  I would agree that the Italians won't last long and doubt Hitler would have the time and will to support their empire in Libya.  [More likely I suspect TTL's equivalent of the Afrika Korp would probably be a force in Sicily say to help boost Italian morale and increase German influence.

  However I think Oct 40 would be rather early for this.  They may not have the highest quality and will have difficulty supporting them but there are a lot of Italian forces in  Libya.  The French are going to be somewhat disorganised and probably short of at least some equipment and IIRC there's no railway between southern Tunisia and Libya so the logistics of an offensive from the main bases around Tunis and the like would be difficult.

  Steve

[ukron]

Aug 6, 2020 17:32:32 GMT archibald said:

A good point. The aircraft industry (at least part of it) is moved Ikea style, with great hopes to restart in Northern africa.

The cruel realty evident from the fall of 1940 however is that the Algerian industry (steel and other basic stuff) is close to non existing.

End result: Cash&carry followed by Lend-lease, massive buyouts of tanks and aircraft at Uncle Sam 's arsenal of democracies.

France chance here is that it kickstarted US industry out of lethargy right from 1938 with the Curtiss H75 DB-7 Martin 167F and plenty other aircraft.

I had read long time ago that French had some projects about relocating the production of Mas-36 rifles (and probably also the excellent Mas-40) as well as Somua S-35 tanks to the United States, is that correct?

[archibald]

Yeees. S-35 (or S-40) are licence-build and much improved in Savannah, Georgia. This was an OTL project from 1939-40.

[lordroel]

Aug 7, 2020 13:40:29 GMT archibald said:

Yeees. S-35 (or S-40) are licence-build and much improved in Savannah, Georgia. This was an OTL project from 1939-40.

So what would be the American name for them.

[ukron]

None, Somua S-40 will be mostly used by French Army, probably replaced in the long run by American machines or more developed French models, like AMX-38, even if I think that the latter would be produced in small quantities.

[gillan1220]

I would like to think the Battle of Britain and Barbarossa would be delayed since the Germans would have to allocate resources to put down the insurgency.

[stevep]

Aug 21, 2020 17:31:38 GMT gillan1220 said:

I would like to think the Battle of Britain and Barbarossa would be delayed since the Germans would have to allocate resources to put down the insurgency.

  Probably not Barbarossa as that was so dear to Hitler but the BoB is likely to be shorter as the Luftwaffe is going to have less time to regroup and repair losses. 

  The big gains for the allies would be the, very likely, much earlier clearing of Libya and the addition of French colony and forces, especially their fleet to the cause.  This would enable a better position in the Atlantic although with the French mainland gone its still going to be a long hard fight. 

  One possible down side is would Japan still seek to occupy northern FIC and if so what do the allies do?  Could this trigger an earlier Far East war when no one is prepared or what?

  One other factor is that with France supplying extra funds, rather than Britain taking over all their planned purchases from the US is that L-L is going to be delayed.  If this takes it past the start of Barbarossa will FDR still be willing/able to give L-L to Stalin on better terms than to the western powers?  Or given anti-communist feeling in the US give any at all, at least for a while?

[lordroel]

Aug 11, 2020 14:13:33 GMT ukron said:

None, Somua S-40 will be mostly used by French Army, probably replaced in the long run by American machines or more developed French models, like AMX-38, even if I think that the latter would be produced in small quantities.

There is no way the French can build something like the AMX-38 in Free French Africa, i think they will rely mostly on British and american tanks and whatever they still field in French tanks that where in Africa at the time of the war.

[stevep]

Aug 22, 2020 9:35:44 GMT lordroel said:

Aug 11, 2020 14:13:33 GMT ukron said:

None, Somua S-40 will be mostly used by French Army, probably replaced in the long run by American machines or more developed French models, like AMX-38, even if I think that the latter would be produced in small quantities.

There is no way the French can build something like the AMX-38 in Free French Africa, i think they will rely mostly on British and american tanks and whatever they still field in French tanks that where in Africa at the time of the war.

  Very true.  FNA can probably build some simpler items with some development work but I can't see it managing a full scale battle tank, at least not in any realistic time for the war.  Assuming a Soviet threat post-war it might lead to some moves to more development of Algeria post-war as a more secure additional source of production however.

[gillan1220]

Aug 22, 2020 9:32:30 GMT stevep said:

Aug 21, 2020 17:31:38 GMT gillan1220 said:

I would like to think the Battle of Britain and Barbarossa would be delayed since the Germans would have to allocate resources to put down the insurgency.

  Probably not Barbarossa as that was so dear to Hitler but the BoB is likely to be shorter as the Luftwaffe is going to have less time to regroup and repair losses. 

  The big gains for the allies would be the, very likely, much earlier clearing of Libya and the addition of French colony and forces, especially their fleet to the cause.  This would enable a better position in the Atlantic although with the French mainland gone its still going to be a long hard fight. 

  One possible down side is would Japan still seek to occupy northern FIC and if so what do the allies do?  Could this trigger an earlier Far East war when no one is prepared or what?

  One other factor is that with France supplying extra funds, rather than Britain taking over all their planned purchases from the US is that L-L is going to be delayed.  If this takes it past the start of Barbarossa will FDR still be willing/able to give L-L to Stalin on better terms than to the western powers?  Or given anti-communist feeling in the US give any at all, at least for a while?

France's North African colonies would probably be spared like OTL. Since the Germans would concentrate on France itself on quelling the insurgency.

Maybe Japan does not occupy French Indochina here since there is no Vichy government. If ever the Japanese do, I think it would not trigger an earlier Pacific War. Most likely the U.S. would continue the embargo as OTL.

FDR would probably grant Lend Lease to France, Britain, the USSR, and China. Not much differences. The French Navy fleet would not meet its end here.

[lordroel]

Aug 22, 2020 10:10:30 GMT gillan1220 said:

Aug 22, 2020 9:32:30 GMT stevep said:

  Probably not Barbarossa as that was so dear to Hitler but the BoB is likely to be shorter as the Luftwaffe is going to have less time to regroup and repair losses. 

  The big gains for the allies would be the, very likely, much earlier clearing of Libya and the addition of French colony and forces, especially their fleet to the cause.  This would enable a better position in the Atlantic although with the French mainland gone its still going to be a long hard fight. 

  One possible down side is would Japan still seek to occupy northern FIC and if so what do the allies do?  Could this trigger an earlier Far East war when no one is prepared or what?

  One other factor is that with France supplying extra funds, rather than Britain taking over all their planned purchases from the US is that L-L is going to be delayed.  If this takes it past the start of Barbarossa will FDR still be willing/able to give L-L to Stalin on better terms than to the western powers?  Or given anti-communist feeling in the US give any at all, at least for a while?

France's North African colonies would probably be spared like OTL. Since the Germans would concentrate on France itself on quelling the insurgency.

Maybe Japan does not occupy French Indochina here since there is no Vichy government. If ever the Japanese do, I think it would not trigger an earlier Pacific War. Most likely the U.S. would continue the embargo as OTL.

FDR would probably grant Lend Lease to France, Britain, the USSR, and China. Not much differences. The French Navy fleet would not meet its end here.

The Japanese not invading French Indochina would mean the Chinese not being cut of from supplies and that means no US embargo for a while: United States freezes Japanese assets

[gillan1220]

Aug 22, 2020 10:16:01 GMT lordroel said:

Aug 22, 2020 10:10:30 GMT gillan1220 said:

France's North African colonies would probably be spared like OTL. Since the Germans would concentrate on France itself on quelling the insurgency.

Maybe Japan does not occupy French Indochina here since there is no Vichy government. If ever the Japanese do, I think it would not trigger an earlier Pacific War. Most likely the U.S. would continue the embargo as OTL.

FDR would probably grant Lend Lease to France, Britain, the USSR, and China. Not much differences. The French Navy fleet would not meet its end here.

The Japanese not invading French Indochina would mean the Chinese not being cut of from supplies and that means no US embargo for a while: United States freezes Japanese assets

Wasn't embargo ongoing since the Japanese invasion of Manchuria in 1937?