What If: France Kept Fighting, a different WW II

[lordroel]

Aug 22, 2020 10:18:04 GMT gillan1220 said:

Aug 22, 2020 10:16:01 GMT lordroel said:

The Japanese not invading French Indochina would mean the Chinese not being cut of from supplies and that means no US embargo for a while: United States freezes Japanese assets

Wasn't embargo ongoing since the Japanese invasion of Manchuria in 1937?

Yes but it finally reach a tipping point when the Japanese took over Vichy French controlled Indochina as that caused problems for the Chinse in getting supplies, ore so i think.

[stevep]

Aug 22, 2020 10:10:30 GMT gillan1220 said:

Aug 22, 2020 9:32:30 GMT stevep said:

  Probably not Barbarossa as that was so dear to Hitler but the BoB is likely to be shorter as the Luftwaffe is going to have less time to regroup and repair losses. 

  The big gains for the allies would be the, very likely, much earlier clearing of Libya and the addition of French colony and forces, especially their fleet to the cause.  This would enable a better position in the Atlantic although with the French mainland gone its still going to be a long hard fight. 

  One possible down side is would Japan still seek to occupy northern FIC and if so what do the allies do?  Could this trigger an earlier Far East war when no one is prepared or what?

  One other factor is that with France supplying extra funds, rather than Britain taking over all their planned purchases from the US is that L-L is going to be delayed.  If this takes it past the start of Barbarossa will FDR still be willing/able to give L-L to Stalin on better terms than to the western powers?  Or given anti-communist feeling in the US give any at all, at least for a while?

France's North African colonies would probably be spared like OTL. Since the Germans would concentrate on France itself on quelling the insurgency.

Maybe Japan does not occupy French Indochina here since there is no Vichy government. If ever the Japanese do, I think it would not trigger an earlier Pacific War. Most likely the U.S. would continue the embargo as OTL.

FDR would probably grant Lend Lease to France, Britain, the USSR, and China. Not much differences. The French Navy fleet would not meet its end here.

  The thing I'm thinking of is that Japan occupied northern FIC to close off a supply route to the KMT and also pressurised Britain into closing the Burma Road for a while.  The allies are still in a very grim looking position so are they willing to fight Japan if the Japanese insist?  Japan might not be willing to go to war on the issue but since that would only be a conflict with the western European powers - the US still in deep isolationism - and with Germany rampant in Europe it could look very tempting to Tokyo and since it would give a chance to seize not just FIC but also Malaya and the DEI they could be willing.  Similarly the allies might decide a 'minimal' Japanese presence in FIC is better than a war when they can't defend their colonies in the area. 

  As such I could see Japan not pressing the issue or backing down, the allies backing down or a war developing which is likely to exclude the US.  It could follow up with an embargo but if Japan is in the process of occupying the allied colonies their secured much of the resources they need and the allies have a new war when their at their weakest.

  Agree I can't see FNA being occupied and probably Libya being doomed fairly quickly.  [Although possibly not occupied until early 41 as there are a lot of Italian forces there and the allies are pretty thinly spread at the moment and in turmoil.]   That is the big huge gain for the allies over OTL as it removes a major threat to the British position in the ME and a lot of bloody fighting, on land and at sea.

[gillan1220]

Here are some videos on YouTube about this scenario:

[stevep]

Aug 22, 2020 10:18:04 GMT gillan1220 said:

Aug 22, 2020 10:16:01 GMT lordroel said:

The Japanese not invading French Indochina would mean the Chinese not being cut of from supplies and that means no US embargo for a while: United States freezes Japanese assets

Wasn't embargo ongoing since the Japanese invasion of Manchuria in 1937?

  Sorry missed this earlier as I was writing a longer reply to your previous post and seems like an exchange between you and Lordroel got under my radar so to speak.

  The 1st move into FIC came as a result of pressure after the fall of France in June/July 1940. see Japanese_invasion_of_French_Indochina.  I didn't realise that there was actually some clashes in Sept 1940.  Doing a google on the issue I found US embagoes on Japan - which gives some info but not in great detail.  It makes reference to some from Jan 1940 onward but not with details and the main ones, including freezing Japanese assets and blocking sales of oil, steel and other projects, came after the Japanese occupation of southern FIC in July 1041.

  Also found another link, although its distinctly hostile to Roosevelt, see Roosevelt and embargoes of Japan which includes the paragraph.

Accordingly, the Roosevelt administration, while curtly dismissing Japanese diplomatic overtures to harmonize relations, imposed a series of increasingly stringent economic sanctions on Japan. In 1939 the United States terminated the 1911 commercial treaty with Japan. “On July 2, 1940, Roosevelt signed the Export Control Act, authorizing the President to license or prohibit the export of essential defense materials.” Under this authority, “[o]n July 31, exports of aviation motor fuels and lubricants and No. 1 heavy melting iron and steel scrap were restricted.” Next, in a move aimed at Japan, Roosevelt slapped an embargo, effective October 16, “on all exports of scrap iron and steel to destinations other than Britain and the nations of the Western Hemisphere.” Finally, on July 26, 1941, Roosevelt “froze Japanese assets in the United States, thus bringing commercial relations between the nations to an effective end. One week later Roosevelt embargoed the export of such grades of oil as still were in commercial flow to Japan.”[2] The British and the Dutch followed suit, embargoing exports to Japan from their colonies in southeast Asia.

  It avoids mentions why Roosevelt did make those steps, seeming to prefer to display it as some sort of rabid hatred of Japan but this does give some dates.  Fo instance the initial steps match with Japanese pressure for the occupation of northern FIC and the clashes with French forces in Sept and of course their occpation of the rest of the colony in July 41.

  As such while the main steps were in July 41 there were early moves by the US.

  Hope the above helps.

  Steve

[archibald]

Battle of britain is much shortened, no RAF attrition in july with France falling on August 8 near the spanish border... big redeployement mid-August, more LW attrition. The famous Adler tag - mid september best Sealion date according to tidal waves - is much less of a threat for a stronger RAF.



The fight in North Africa is over by late 1940. As such the Mediterranean and Balkans see even more butchering. Crucially, the german paratroopers who fought and died for Corsica in february can't fight for Crete island in May. The greek and yugoslavian campaigns are more favorable to the allies. End result: Ploesti bombing campaign is staged from Limnos rather than Lybia and with french B-24s.
With such clusterfuck in the Balkans the Germans have to fight back there, Rommel included ( Albania Korps ! not glorious enough for Rommel ego so Skandeberg Korps).
Barbarossa is delayed by 11 months to May, 17 1942 against a much stronger USSR. Needless to say, Moscow is never threatened.

For FIC France is still way too weak to stop the Japanese juggernault. Still the war with Thailand still hapens and the Thais are beaten in spring 1941. Pearl Harbor date don't move - and I have to check how the oil embargo happens ITTL to push the Japanese to war.
In a delicious bout of irony the French and Vietnamese resist and finally bog down the japanese, guess where ? in Dien Bien Phu !
The french defense of FIC even limited has then a cascading effect in the Pacific war.
Singapore resists longer, and so does Corregidor with McArthur chosing to die there unlike OTL.
The string of big 1942 Pacific battles is different too. Carnage still happens in Guadalcanal and Papua.

[lordroel]

I have a question, could RAF bombers taking of from French Tunisia do bombing runs on Italy and get back.

[archibald]

Aug 23, 2020 17:08:28 GMT lordroel said:

I have a question, could RAF bombers taking of from French Tunisia do bombing runs on Italy and get back.

distance wise ? sure. But North Africa is not needed ITTL. The better outcome of the greek campaign provided islands as unsinkable giant carriers.

[stevep]

Aug 23, 2020 15:34:16 GMT archibald said:

Battle of britain is much shortened, no RAF attrition in july with France falling on August 8 near the spanish border... big redeployement mid-August, more LW attrition. The famous Adler tag - mid september best Sealion date according to tidal waves - is much less of a threat for a stronger RAF.



The fight in North Africa is over by late 1940. As such the Mediterranean and Balkans see even more butchering. Crucially, the german paratroopers who fought and died for Corsica in february can't fight for Crete island in May. The greek and yugoslavian campaigns are more favorable to the allies. End result: Ploesti bombing campaign is staged from Limnos rather than Lybia and with french B-24s.
With such clusterfuck in the Balkans the Germans have to fight back there, Rommel included ( Albania Korps ! not glorious enough for Rommel ego so Skandeberg Korps).
Barbarossa is delayed by 11 months to May, 17 1942 against a much stronger USSR. Needless to say, Moscow is never threatened.

For FIC France is still way too weak to stop the Japanese juggernault. Still the war with Thailand still hapens and the Thais are beaten in spring 1941. Pearl Harbor date don't move - and I have to check how the oil embargo happens ITTL to push the Japanese to war.
In a delicious bout of irony the French and Vietnamese resist and finally bog down the japanese, guess where ? in Dien Bien Phu !
The french defense of FIC even limited has then a cascading effect in the Pacific war.
Singapore resists longer, and so does Corregidor with McArthur chosing to die there unlike OTL.
The string of big 1942 Pacific battles is different too. Carnage still happens in Guadalcanal and Papua.

  archibald,

  In general agreement but a few concerns.

a)  Not sure the Greek islands would be a suitable base for strategic bombers given their terrain and all the equipment and supplies that would need to be brought in.  Especially given the need to protect the bases and establishment against German tactical air.  Quite possible say in 43 or better 44 but I doubt it would be practical in 41.  Although could see Churchill trying it. 

b)  Not sure that Barbarossa would be delayed until 42.  The allies still lack the power to prevent the Germans overrunning mainland Greece, especially since their probably still got most of their mobile forces in Libya.  Plus if Japan attacks as OTL and brings the US into the Pacific war would Hitler declare war as OTL and then invade the USSR ~7 months later??  He might be made enough to but I suspect the bulk of the General Staff would be having kittens, especially with any realistic intel on how much the Red Army had expanded.  I suspect that the attack will still occur in 41, although possibly a little later and weaker.  [Not much latter as bad weather was the primary factor in delaying the attack date but with more fighting and Crete still in allied lands probably going to be a bit higher losses and more forces needed to buffer both the Balkans and possibly Italy.

c)  Even a small defence of FIC will have huge impact on the drive south.  Very likely, especially with the additional forces available to the allies that Malaya won't fall at all and hopefully a good chunk of the DEI, most especially Sumatra and Java, stays in allied hands as well.  This could be the equivalent of Guadalcanal in 42 where much of the OJN surface fleet starts suffering irreplaceable losses, especially if the US can be persuaded to seriously support the region.  Although could well see some big carrier battles further east as the region isn't really suitable for carrier operations.

d)  Unless it drastically reduces the forces allotted to the Phillippines invasion I doubt it would alter things there greatly.  Might be a small delay in getting resources from the southern theatre, simply because the latter is consuming a lot more, to make the final attacks.  I suspect MacArthur will still be ordered to leave as OTL for political reasons.

  Steve

[stevep]

Aug 24, 2020 5:25:41 GMT archibald said:

Aug 23, 2020 17:08:28 GMT lordroel said:

I have a question, could RAF bombers taking of from French Tunisia do bombing runs on Italy and get back.

distance wise ? sure. But North Africa is not needed ITTL. The better outcome of the greek campaign provided islands as unsinkable giant carriers.

  Are you thinking more of Polesti than of Italy as N Africa is closer to the latter?  See my comment elsewhere about concerns about the logistics of a strategic bombing campaign from Crete but it might be practical say 43-44 onward.  However Tunisia and NE Algeria has much more resources and is closer to Italy so would be better for targeting that.

[lordroel]

Aug 24, 2020 5:25:41 GMT archibald said:

Aug 23, 2020 17:08:28 GMT lordroel said:

I have a question, could RAF bombers taking of from French Tunisia do bombing runs on Italy and get back.

distance wise ? sure. But North Africa is not needed ITTL. The better outcome of the greek campaign provided islands as unsinkable giant carriers.

I always wonder how the Free French Navy presence around Crete during the Battle of Crete might shift things, also if the Free French send some French Foreign Legion troops ore regular Free French troops to Crete then the island can be hold against the Germans.

[stevep]

Aug 22, 2020 12:00:12 GMT gillan1220 said:

Here are some videos on YouTube about this scenario:

 

  Well the 1st one is fatally flawed by not doing some basic research.  A French decision to continue fighting after OTL wouldn't lead to the destruction of Paris in 1940 as it was already in German hands by the time France asked for an armistice.  Paris was occupied on the 14th June and the OTL armistice wasn't suggested until the 17th when Petain was made PM.  Also it totally overlooks the French navy and colonial empire and the effect their continued resistance would have on the war.

  There are a number of errors in the 2nd one but its probably more realistic.  However major points I disagree with.

a)  I can't see the allies taking places like Sardinia and Sicily prior to the US entering the war let alone managing to invade and hold parts of mainland Italy or Greece.  Hopefully they could do more in the Med earlier but the sea is likely to be the demarcation line between the two sides until the US is supplying enough forces and possibly troops to make a decisive difference. 

b)  The Soviet bloc is likely to be smaller than OTL but its unlikely that Poland and at least some of eastern Germany would escape Soviet rule.  E Germany especially for political reasons as Stalin would demand a share in the occupation of Germany and because I can't see Hitler being willing to let western forces occupy Berlin and end his regime while his forces are still fighting somewhere east of Poland.  More likely a larger share of the Balkans and possibly at least part of Czechoslovakia ending up in the western bloc.

c)  The war in the Pacific is likely to end a bit earlier, especially if the better allied position means they deny Japan much of the DEI/Malaya as that gives a more advanced base for closing in on Japan and greatly weakens Japan due to lack of vital resources.  I can't see Truman or any other US politician basically suspending the war for a year or so until the atomic bomb is developed - especially since until the final stages of development its still very much a theoretical project.  Hence I can see a very bloody invasion of Japan unless the earlier allied approach means that mass starvation and economic and social collapse prompts a surrender.  Agree that unfortunately all of Korea will end up in the Soviet bloc.

d)  Can't see France holding Algeria until the present day.  It would just be too costly to try and support a minority European settler population in the fact of growing opposition, especially as neighbouring colonies becoming independent and Arab/Muslim states become more powerful politically and economically.

  Steve

[archibald]

by this point I will call the FFO heavyweights there.

WWII and military warfare are not my area, honestly.

I'm a spaaaace-aeronautics-F1-DBZ nerd (in that order).

Lordroel you may gain some members for this forum in the process. In fact I tried the same trick with AH.com one year ago but...

a) It's AH.com

b) Wiking (only rude words would come from my keyboard so I will abstain from giving my feelings about him)

Cheers !

[lordroel]

Aug 24, 2020 15:57:01 GMT archibald said:

by this point I will call the FFO heavyweights there.

WWII and military warfare are not my area, honestly.

I'm a spaaaace-aeronautics-F1-DBZ nerd (in that order).

Lordroel you may gain some members for this forum in the process. In fact I tried the same trick with AH.com one year ago but...

a) It's AH.com

b) Wiking (only rude words would come from my keyboard so I will abstain from giving my feelings about him)

Cheers !

AH.com does not like discussions about other AH forums, luckily this is not AH.com.

So that means you are more this then archibald: What if: Megaroc - How Britain Almost Won the Space Race, a more realistic Ministry of Space subject.

[lordroel]

So back to topic, i found this while googeling, it seems to be a a summary of events of the the FFO TL, it looks interesting:

FFO (France fights on) timeline for 1940, with main events only.

June 1940 :
- France takes the decision to retreat to North Africa (but of course still hold Corsica)
- Pétain is politically neutralized by those who want to continue war (Reynaud, Blum, Mandel, De Gaulle, etc). After his failure, he blows an aneurysm and get comatose, he will die in October without ever regaining consciousness.(thanks to Archibald for the correction).
- Soviet Union imposes a cooperation with the Baltic states and forces Romania to give her Bessarabia and northern Bucovina
- Italian attack against France, a bit latter than OTL

July 1940 :
- The German army reaches Bordeaux, Toulouse and Marseille at the end of the month ; the Italian army is still stuck in the Alps
- Joint British-French attack on Libya
- Romania joins the Axis
- Roosevelt signs the Two Oceans Navy act
- Soviet Union annexes the Baltic states

August 1940 :
- End of the battle of France (the 7th August)
- A collaborationist government is formed in occupied France under Pierre Laval
- Allied landing on Lampedusa (success) and Pantelleria (failure)
- French-Polish landing in Sardinia and quick conquest of most of the island
- Joint British-French air attack on Taranto harbor (with more damage than OTL)
- Italian troops in East Africa attack Kenya
- Japanese ultimatum to the French governor of Indochina, ordering to stop any support to China ; French refusal, backed by British and US diplomatic support
- Romania is forced to give northern Transylvania to Hungary

September 1940 :
- Italian troops in East Africa attack Sudan
- British and French begin to target Italian Dodecanese islands
- Beginning of the Battle of Britain (which will be less intensive than OTL because of the longer Battle of France and the shorter period before bad weather)
- Surrender of the last Italian troops in Libya
- Romania is forced to give nsouthern Dobroudja to Bulgary
- Tripartite Pact between Germany, Italy and Japan

October 1940 :
- Surrender of Italian Dodecanese islands and of the last Italian troops in Sardinia
- Pro-German Coup d'état in Romania
- Encounter between Hitler and Mussolini (Brenner Pass) ; Mussolini begs for help, because his leadership in Italy is disputed after the series of setacks
- Encounter between Hitler and Franco (Hendaye), from which nothing emerges, because of exorbitant Spanish requirements (in fact, with the Allies at her doors, Spain will even less than OTL be willing to become a German ally)
- Beginning of talks between the Allies and Greece

November 1940 :
- Allied forces (French, Commonwealth, Belgians from Congo) increase their pressure on Italian East Africa, Italian troops are forced out of Sudan
- End of the Battle of Britain and beginning of the raids on British cities
- Roosevelt wins the US election
- The USA accept to switch to Lend-Lease for the Allies (in practical terms from March 1941 on)
- New US pressure on Japan about the war in China
- Hungary, Romania and Slovakia sign the Tripartite Pact
- Beginning of talks between the Allies and Yugoslavia

December 1940 :
- Great Britain begins to impose economic sanctions against Irak, whose prime minister (Rachid Ali al-Gaylani) is willing to ally with Germany in order to make his country independent
- Three FliegerKorps begin to relocate in Sicily, Italy and southern France
- Hitler and Mussolini plan the attack on Corsica and Sardinia (operation Merkur)

January 1941 :
- Germans and Italians continue to gather forces for operation Merkur, among them German paratroops and mountain troops.
- Germans and Italians begin to target Malta and French airfields in Tunisia (Malta-Tunis Blitz) to create a diversion for Merkur
- Fall of Addis-Abeba and end of Italian East Africa (although troops in remote places will fight until May)

February 1941 :
- To defend Tunis and Malta, the French have to remove some fighters groups from Corsica and Sardinia
- The Luftwaffe begins to target airfields in Corsica and Sardinia
- Greece joins the Allies and attacks Italian Albania, forcing Mussolini to divert some assets there
- Fearing an Allied breakthrough towards Romania and her oilfields, Hitler orders to plan the invasion of Yugoslavia and Greece
- German and Italian paratroopers are dropped over Corsica and Sardinia, followed by naval landings ; fierce and indecisive combats on both islands (loss of French BB Béarn)
- A fourth FliegerKorps is deployed in Italy.

March 1941 :
- French troops, despite reinforcements, are unable to hold Corsica and Sardinia which fall in enemy hands in the middle of the month. Heavy losses for the German paratroopers, transport planes and Italian navy
- Military alliance between Japan and Thailand (Siam), leading to consultations between France, Great-Britain and the Dutch in-exile govt ; Siamese ultimatum to France to give up border provinces
- Italian troops in Albania are repulsed by Greek forces ; arrival of German reinforcements
- German troops begin to concentrate north of Yugoslavia and Germany exerts political pressure
- Allies begins to send reinforcements to Greece
- Defensive agreement between Unites-Sates, Great-Britain, France and Australia against Japanese expansionism
- First fights between France and Thailand
- Cash and Carry replaced by Lend-Lease

April 1941
- Beginning of German counter-attack (Rommel) in Albania
- Heavy fighting between Thailand and France
- German ultimatum to Yugoslavia ordering open access to the Greek border ; after acceptance by the Yugoslav govt., uprising of the Army and new govt. favorable to the Allies

May 1941
- German attack on Yugoslavia and Greece, launched from Austria, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria
- Difficult progress, despite desertion of Croatian soldiers, for the German troops, due to the mountainous landscape and the strong French forces
- Cease-fire between Thailand and France, with Japan as arbitrator
- First joint French and British raids on Ploesti
- Naval battle of the Ionian Sea between the Italian fleet and a British-French group: sinking of the Italian BB Vittorio Veneto and old French BB Bretagne
- Naval battle of Danemark Straits: sinking of Bismarck and Prinz Eugen on the German side and Hood on the allied side, with French Richelieyu damaged
- Yugoslav and French troops retreat to northern Greece, but Hitler commits two additional PanzerDivisions (which were training in Poland for Barbarossa); temporary collapse of the Yugoslav road network and German logistics

June 1941
- Nationalist uprising in Irak, supported by German and Italy, quickly broken by British and French forces
- Very heavy fightings in northern Greece, but slow German advance to Athens ; Allied forces evacuate towards Peloponnese

July 1941 :
- End of the battle for continental Greece. As the Allies still hold Crete, Rhodes and part of the Cyclades, important air battles and many small naval actions occur in the Aegean
- Japanese ultimatum asking for the end of commercial traffic between French Indochina and (free) China and demilitarization of northern Indochina

August 1941 :
- Battle in the Aegean continues at a lower pace, the Luftwaffe being unable to suppress her Allied opponents in the area to allow a landing on Crete (while German paratroops are still recovering from the bloody battle of Corsica)
- Hitler decides to postpone Barbarossa in 1942 (even if this was already clear since several weeks in the German high command)
- Argentia Conference between the USA, Great-Britain and France
- Allied decision to send reinforcements to French Indochina (one armored brigade, air groups and several cruisers, destroyers and submarines) and Singapore (several aircraft carriers, battleships and cruisers, troops)
- Japan begins the construction of airfields in the Paracel islands and sends reinforcements to Thailand

September 1941 :
- Battle in the Aegean continues
- Plans for a joint allied (ABDF, American-British-Dutch-French) defense in Asia
- Italian maiale attacks on Alexandria, Gibraltar and Algiers: several battleships and cruisers are damaged
- First German attempt to send submarines to the Mediterranean, which is a partial failure due to combined British-French guard at Gibraltar Straits

October 1941 :
- Battle in the Aegean continues
- Japan redeploys units from the Kwantung Army towards Thailand (this comes as a reaction to France holding firm in Indochina)

November 1941 :
- Battle in the Aegean continues
- Allied naval and air bombardment on Genoa harbor and dockyards, several Italian ships under repairs (after Taranto) or under construction are heavily damaged. Several deception attacks on Sicily, Sardinia, Corsica and South of France.
- Reinforcements for Indochina : a light USN surface group (1 CL, 4 DD) and 2 Commonwealth squadrons.
- First NA-73 (FFO Mustang-I) delivered to French airforce.

December 1941 :
- On the 6th/7th, simultaneous Japanese air attacks on Pearl Harbor (same as OTL), the Philippines (same as OTL) and French Indochina. The British naval base in Singapore is targeted by midgets submarines (1 CVL sunk and 2 BB damaged).
- On the next days, Japanese landing in the Philippines and French Indochina, after a small naval battle which sees a US-French force defeated, and air attacks on Burma and Malaya ; naval battle in the Malacca Strait, a small British is defeated by the IJN
- Japanese advance towards Dutch East Indies
- At the end of the month, an important Japanese fleet sails towards Malaya ; a very important naval battle occurs in the Southern China Sea : a British/French fleet which is trying to intercept is overwhelmed by Japanese land and carrier-based planes and a night surface action follows. This is a Japanese victory, since the landing at Kuching can't be prevented, but at a very high cost (3 BB lost and 3 others damaged ; 1 CV and 2 BB lost for the British).
- Battle in the Aegean continues
- Preparatory work for the arrival of US troops in North Africa
- US-Soviet discussions

[stevep]

Aug 24, 2020 15:57:01 GMT archibald said:

by this point I will call the FFO heavyweights there.

WWII and military warfare are not my area, honestly.

I'm a spaaaace-aeronautics-F1-DBZ nerd (in that order).

Lordroel you may gain some members for this forum in the process. In fact I tried the same trick with AH.com one year ago but...

a) It's AH.com

b) Wiking (only rude words would come from my keyboard so I will abstain from giving my feelings about him)

Cheers !

  archibald,

  No problem.  I just can't see the allies being able to do much offensively in 41.  Although their in a better position with the French colonial empire being allied and their navy plus a much earlier ending to the fighting in Libya Britain still has to make up the material losses from Dunkirk as well as equip the new conscripts and probably a lot of the French forces as their own equipment runs out of spares, ammo and the like.  Plus shipping stuff all over the place.  There's still Italian E Africa to be cleared up, or at least the coastal regions and possibly a revolt in Iraq.  If Mussolini is still deranged enough to attack Greece, which is probably the case then its likely the allies will seek to aid the Greeks and they have neither the numbers or logistics to avoid a serious defeat there.  Especially given the Axis have interior lines. 

  Similarly with Barbarossa I think its probably at least as likely that Germany strikes in 41.  With the loss of Libya there is no action in N Africa or supporting operations there so Germany and Italy might have a bit more resources although what Germany has to send to Italy to secure Mussolini might be a factor.  [Thinking more of an anti-fascist coup here and Italy seeking a separate peace rather than an allied invasion in this time stage.  Hitler will almost certainly claim that the allies are fighting on because their expecting Soviet support at some stage and having given them a bloody nose in Greece but being unable to threaten them militarily elsewhere it would be seen as the primary aim of Hitler and the army this year and of course Hitler really, really wants to strike east.

  Steve