An Earlier Plan

[mcnutt]

During the planning process, a plan for D Day was discussed to have the invasion of France occur on May 1, 1944. It also had the landings on Normandy and Southern France occur on the same day. If this plan had been used, I see the forces in Southern France moving with their OTL speed. They would liberate Paris on June 15, 1944. By July 1, 1944 they have linked up with the WAllied forces on Normandy. They do so by advancing to the eastern most place occupied by the WAllies, thereby cutting off most of the German forces in France. The WAllies advance to the German border by July 21, 1944. They overwhelm the understaffed Germans and cross the Rhine on September 25, 1944. In October, the Soviets launch an offensive. They take Warsaw on October 11, 1944 and Budapest on October 16, 1944. By late November the Soviets cross the German border. On December 7, 1944, the WAllies take Prague. On December 8, 1944 the Soviets surround Berlin. On December 9, 1944 Hitler commits suicide. On December 16, 1944, VE Day, the Germans surrender. On March 16, 1945, the USSR declared war on Japan and invaded Manchukuo. In April, WAllied European veterans enter the Pacific. They arrive in time for the attack on Okinawa, which comes under complete Allied control on May 11, 1945. Also in April 1945, the Japanese begin to suffer from the full force of the US Army Corps and the RAF. On August 3, 1945, with his cities in ruins and urban refugees competing for the scarce food supplies with the rural population, Herohito surrenders. The atomic bomb is a military secret, until 1949, when the Soviets announce they have developed one. There are two parts of the world that are changed ITTL. Czechoslavika comes to an end on January 23, 1946 in a not so velvet divorce. The Soviet occupied People's Republic of Slovakia declares it's independence. Czeczia, along with West German, is a front line nation of NATO. It hosts a number of US military bases. If you are the child of an American military veteran and a German, you may have a different heritage. Soviet occupied China is a Soviet satellite. Jaing's government is expelled and flees to Taiwan in 1946. Truman benefits because no one asks who lost China? The Soviets veto the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. They support Deng's reforms, since it will make China less dependent on Soviet aid. The China's economy booms like OTL. There is no playing the China card. US reestablishes relations with China under Reagan after lobbying by corporations eager to cash in on the lucrative China trade.

[stevep]

Mcnutt

a) Why was the invasion delayed? I have read that the ideas of the S of France operation occurring at the same time as Normandy was dropped because there was insufficient amphibious lift capability, apparently because the USN was committing too much to the Pacific. To do both operations in May would require more shipping and also everything else being moved forward in terms of men supplies and equipment. Suspect that the delay from May to June for Normandy was because the resources weren't available in time but possibly that could be made up by taking from elsewhere. Getting them both in May would be a big ask however.

b) What was the weather like in May? The allies took a risk with Normandy and storms not only nearly caused another delay but also later caused serious problems. Its possible if there were bad ones at the wrong time in May then Normandy could turn into a disaster.

c) If the two invasions are moved forward there are butterflies. For one thing you can't assume Operation Dragoon forces will advance as quickly as forces in S France that OTL were drawn northwards by Normandy will respond to the southern landings. Also with two simultaneous landings its less likely that Hitler will believe that Normandy was a feint and the main landings are still coming near Calais. This could mean a lot of German forces moving against Normandy markedly earlier than OTL.

d) Similarly further down the line if the two invasions mean that France is liberated a bit earlier how do the Germans respond? They might pull forces out of France earlier, avoiding the Faliase pocket, or even earlier, avoiding more losses so there are more defender further east. Or pull more forces back from the other fronts which mean it might be that Soviets who gain more territory. [Don't forget Germany's last major offensive was at the Bulge, against the western forces, not against the Soviets.

e) You could be assuming too much about forces being transferred to operate against Japan earlier. I have heard there was considerable unrest in US forces in Europe against the idea of being sent to the Pacific. Also for Bomber Command to operate against the Japanese homeland would have required considerable resources to be made available in terms of extra airfields, supplies and the like which I suspect the US would block, preferring to use their own forces. Even the Russians might struggle a bit moving their forces through a Siberian winter to attack Manchuria as powerfully within 3 months of the German surrender.

f) Unless the Soviets manage to remove Mao from power in the CCP, and attempts to do this would incite Chinese hostility to foreign interference, I can't see China staying a Soviet puppet past about 1960. Simply too many differences plus Mao being unwilling to play 2nd fiddle to anyone. Even if there is no De-Stalinization to prompt his irk, in which case the Soviet economy will be in a markedly greater mess come the 1960's and 70s'. As such would be difficult to see the Great Leap Forward Backwards or the Cultural revolution vetoed by the Soviets, although the exact nature of such events and their timing could change.

g) Definitely that far ahead unlikely that you could predict Reagan or even someone like him necessarily coming to power.