Tipsyfish
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Post by Tipsyfish on Oct 1, 2016 1:43:31 GMT
I'm currently writing a scenario that would evolve the Netherlands joining the Central Powers and because of that Germany is able to capture Paris in late 1914, and win against Russia in mid-late 1915.
Against France, what sort of territorial changes would be realistically taken in both Europe and colonial wise?
What land would the Netherlands want? Could they gain any colonies from France? (I'm thinking mainly in the Americas with French Guinea, or possibly some islands in the Caribbean) I doubt that England would be willing to give up much of anything land wise which is why I'm sticking with the French.
Against Russia, What land for Austria-Hungary and Germany?
If France and England are at peace would the Ottomans declare war against Russia? Could the campaigns be successful or would they fail like the Caucasus mountains campaign did IOTL?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 1, 2016 8:37:29 GMT
I'm currently writing a scenario that would evolve the Netherlands joining the Central Powers and because of that Germany is able to capture Paris in late 1914, and win against Russia in mid-late 1915. Against France, what sort of territorial changes would be realistically taken in both Europe and colonial wise? What land would the Netherlands want? Could they gain any colonies from France? (I'm thinking mainly in the Americas with French Guinea, or possibly some islands in the Caribbean) I doubt that England would be willing to give up much of anything land wise which is why I'm sticking with the French. Against Russia, What land for Austria-Hungary and Germany? If France and England are at peace would the Ottomans declare war against Russia? Could the campaigns be successful or would they fail like the Caucasus mountains campaign did IOTL? I would think the Netherlands would lose Netherlands East Indies due Japan taking it over. |
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Post by eurowatch on Oct 1, 2016 9:12:39 GMT
I'm currently writing a scenario that would evolve the Netherlands joining the Central Powers and because of that Germany is able to capture Paris in late 1914, and win against Russia in mid-late 1915. Against France, what sort of territorial changes would be realistically taken in both Europe and colonial wise? What land would the Netherlands want? Could they gain any colonies from France? (I'm thinking mainly in the Americas with French Guinea, or possibly some islands in the Caribbean) I doubt that England would be willing to give up much of anything land wise which is why I'm sticking with the French. Against Russia, What land for Austria-Hungary and Germany? If France and England are at peace would the Ottomans declare war against Russia? Could the campaigns be successful or would they fail like the Caucasus mountains campaign did IOTL? Involve, Tipsy, not evolve. The two Words mean completly different Things. I don't think Germany would take much land from France itself but they would defenitly take Algerie and maybe Madagascar. Possibly French Indochina too if they really wanted. The first priority for the Dutch would be to get the DEI back from Japan (that is assuming they don't managed to beat back the invasion) and from France they would probably take both French Guiana and all the Caribbean islands they can. And if the CP followed their OTL invasion plan then some People in the government might want to Annex Belgium too. I don't think Germany and A-H would really start to annex land from Russia as much as maybe setting up a Polish puppet state to act as a buffer? They didn't really start annexing even after the peace treaty. I really doubt that even a modernised Ottoman Empire would be stupid enough to invade Russia even after the Russian army gets curbstomped by the Germans. If anything they might grab the opportunity to stomp out rebels and have a go at Egypt. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 1, 2016 9:15:07 GMT
The first priority for the Dutch would be to get the DEI back from Japan (that is assuming they don't managed to beat back the invasion) and from France they would probably take both French Guiana and all the Caribbean islands they can. And if the CP followed their OTL invasion plan then some People in the government might want to Annex Belgium too. Maybe the Netherlands can become a Caribbean colony holder instead of having also a colony in Asia. |
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Post by eurowatch on Oct 1, 2016 9:21:12 GMT
The first priority for the Dutch would be to get the DEI back from Japan (that is assuming they don't managed to beat back the invasion) and from France they would probably take both French Guiana and all the Caribbean islands they can. And if the CP followed their OTL invasion plan then some People in the government might want to Annex Belgium too. Maybe the Netherlands can become a Caribbean colony holder instead of having also a colony in Asia. But considering even all the Caribbean colonies combined would not be able to match the economical output from the DEI, would they really want that? |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Oct 1, 2016 9:34:37 GMT
Maybe the Netherlands can become a Caribbean colony holder instead of having also a colony in Asia. But considering even all the Caribbean colonies combined would not be able to match the economical output from the DEI, would they really want that? If they have no choice of getting Japan, if they had succeeded in invading the DEI and mange to hold it out of the DEI, then the Netherlands has to focus their attention somewhere else, and i doubt the Netherlands will want any former French colony's in Africa which leaves only the Caribbean as major colony possessions. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 1, 2016 10:15:20 GMT
Guys
It would depend on the circumstances as to why the Netherlands joined the CP, i.e. when and what butterflies develop. If its before 1914 then they have more time to plan for such a conflict but so do the entente powers, including Britain which would be concerned about Dutch ports being available to the Germans, both in Europe and overseas. Also if the Dutch are willing to support the German breach of Belgium neutrality would the latter still fight or would it feel the situation is so desperate that it must submit?
Presuming those things happen and France falls quickly, although not sure of this, then I would say the following would apply.
a) Both Japan and the British/Australians would move quickly against the DEI. [Both to deny them to German use and also for the Australians to keep the Japanese at a distance]
b) If France is going down and Germany turning to attack Russia then I can't see Turkey not joining the CPs. It was pretty much a done thing already OTL, although Souchon forced the Turkish hands by bombarding Russia ports. With France prostrate and Russia under attack the Turks would seek to make gains while they can.
c) Presuming it leads to a general peace in late 1914, early 1915 say I would assume:
i) Germany annexes some territories from France and possibly some colonies, although I can't see them taking Algeria in whole or part. Poland is probably formed out of Russia provinces and possibly also Austrian Galicia as a German protectorate with possibly an Hapsburg ruler. Belgium probably becomes a German protectorate with some territories going to the Dutch.
ii) Turkey would seek gains from Russia in the Caucasus region and possibly from Britain. It would get something in the former case but doubtful in the later. Britain's power is largely unaffected and the canal is too important to Britain while I can't see Germany refusing a peace that meets its needs for the sake of Turkish aims.
iii) Germany and the Netherlands may also seek French colonies in the Caribbean but their likely to upset the US somewhat which is likely to lead to tension later.
iv) Germany apparently wanted to control the Belgium Congo and probably would do so and also add some neighbouring French territory. [Again doubt they would get any British territory but their likely to regain all their African colonies, including SW Africa from S Africa].
The uncertain point would be the future of former Dutch and German colonies in the Pacific. Presuming they have been occupied then Germany and the Dutch would want them returned. However I could see Britain, which staying formally neutral, being willing to quietly support Japanese attempts to hold their gains and also seek to purchase Australian and New Zealand gains from Germany to prevent the Germans regaining a foothold in the region. Also, especially after the defeat of Russia in 1904/05 Japan had pushed the mantle of being the champion of Asia against European rule and it could seek to establish friendly governments in the Dutch Indies.
Germany has a much more powerful fleet that the Russians, or even the Japanese at the time. However, even without any concern about the situation in Europe can it transport a fleet and army to 'liberate' the DEI against an occupying Japanese forces firmly established with no bases nearer than German East Africa. Especially with a resentful Britain, France and Russia still far from crushingly defeated. Therefore it might decide it can't regain the territories and seek further compensation from France and Russia.
I however have deep doubts about the initial POD in that I think it would take a huge change for the Netherlands to end their neutrality. Especially in support of an aggressive war by Germany which includes breaching the neutrality of its southern neighbour. This would set a dangerous precedent for them and risk them becoming nothing more than a satellite of a greater Germany. Also the Dutch were a colonial and trading nation. Neutrality suits them because there are two nations above all they can't have conflict with. Germany because it can easily occupy them and Britain because, given its navy and geographical position it can seize their colonies and cut off their maritime trade. While the former is the greater threat the latter would very likely deter any Dutch move towards the CP. Even if they do think Germany can win quickly.
Steve
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Oct 1, 2016 21:16:04 GMT
I'm currently writing a scenario that would evolve the Netherlands joining the Central Powers and because of that Germany is able to capture Paris in late 1914, and win against Russia in mid-late 1915. Against France, what sort of territorial changes would be realistically taken in both Europe and colonial wise? What land would the Netherlands want? Could they gain any colonies from France? (I'm thinking mainly in the Americas with French Guinea, or possibly some islands in the Caribbean) I doubt that England would be willing to give up much of anything land wise which is why I'm sticking with the French. Against Russia, What land for Austria-Hungary and Germany? If France and England are at peace would the Ottomans declare war against Russia? Could the campaigns be successful or would they fail like the Caucasus mountains campaign did IOTL? Frankly, I find it extremely hard to believe that the Netherlands would enter World War I on the side of the Central Powers. Indeed, what exactly in it for them? An annexation of the northern, Dutch-speaking part of Belgium? Also, Dutch entry into World War I almost certainly means the loss of the Dutch East Indies (as in, what is now Indonesia) to Japan--something that the Netherlands certainly wouldn't want! Anyway, though, one can imagine other ways for Germany to win World War I in the West in either late 1914 or 1915. In such a scenario, here is what exactly I think that the final peace would have looked like: 1. Germany annexes iron ore-rich Briey and Longwy and possibly the rest of Lorraine from France. 2. Germany acquires many, if not most, French colonies in both Asia and Africa. 3. France is forced to pay war reparations to Germany for decades as well as to have permanent limits on the size of its military. 4. Germany might transform Belgium into a German protectorate; however, it might drop this demand in exchange for Britain agreeing to make peace with Germany. 5. Romania enters World War I on the side of the Central Powers (as per a secret 1883 alliance which Romania broke in our TL) and thus acquires Bessarabia from Russia after the end of World War I. 6. The Ottoman Empire enters World War I on the side of the Central Powers (in order to acquire some territory from its longtime rival Russia) and thus, at the very least, reacquires the Kars region (which it previously lost to Russia in 1877-1878) from Russia. 7. If the war lasts long enough, I can certainly imagine the Niedermayer-Hentig Expedition (if it still occurs in this TL, that is) successfully getting Afghanistan to enter World War I on the side of the Central Powers and thus in Afghanistan acquiring parts of Russian Central Asia after the end of World War I in this TL. 8. Austria-Hungary will probably either annex both Serbia (minus Macedonia) and Montenegro or turn them into Austro-Hungarian satellite states/protectorates. 9. Bulgaria enters World War I on the side of the Central Powers and annexes Macedonia from Serbia. 10. At the very least, Russia loses all or almost all of its territory west of Minsk and south of Riga as well as forced to pay war reparations to Germany for decades as well as to have permanent limits on the size of its military. Of course, given the fear that such peace terms might not be enforceable indefinitely (for instance, Russia can secretly rearm somewhere in Siberia) as well as to the powerful long-term demographic and population threat from Russia, Germany might still be tempted to push Russia back to its our TL's Brest-Litovsk borders in this TL. 11. Britain loses none of its colonies and gets a white peace. 12. Japan (in spite of being on the losing side in World War I in this TL) keeps all of its territorial gains in East Asia. 13. Sweden (a longtime rival of Russia, if I remember correctly) might have entered World War I on the side of the Central Powers in this TL and thus have acquired some or all of Finland from Russia after the end of World War I in this TL. Anyway, how exactly does all of that sound? |
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Oct 1, 2016 21:18:34 GMT
1. and possibly also Austrian Galicia as a German protectorate with possibly an Hapsburg ruler. 2. Belgium probably becomes a German protectorate with some territories going to the Dutch. 1. Austria already controlled Galicia before the start of World War I, though. 2. Frankly, the acquisition of Dutch-speaking northern Belgium is the only reason that I can imagine the Netherlands would actually be willing to enter World War I on the side of the Central Powers in this TL. However, this would also almost certainly mean the loss of the Netherlands' various colonies--such as the Dutch East Indies (as in, the territories that are now known as Indonesia in our TL). |
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Oct 1, 2016 21:19:34 GMT
I'm currently writing a scenario that would evolve the Netherlands joining the Central Powers and because of that Germany is able to capture Paris in late 1914, and win against Russia in mid-late 1915. Against France, what sort of territorial changes would be realistically taken in both Europe and colonial wise? What land would the Netherlands want? Could they gain any colonies from France? (I'm thinking mainly in the Americas with French Guinea, or possibly some islands in the Caribbean) I doubt that England would be willing to give up much of anything land wise which is why I'm sticking with the French. Against Russia, What land for Austria-Hungary and Germany? If France and England are at peace would the Ottomans declare war against Russia? Could the campaigns be successful or would they fail like the Caucasus mountains campaign did IOTL? I would think the Netherlands would lose Netherlands East Indies due Japan taking it over. Completely agreed; of course, the Netherlands will probably acquire Dutch-speaking (Flemish-speaking) northern Belgium if the Central Powers actually win World War I in this TL. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Oct 1, 2016 22:01:42 GMT
1. and possibly also Austrian Galicia as a German protectorate with possibly an Hapsburg ruler. 2. Belgium probably becomes a German protectorate with some territories going to the Dutch. 1. Austria already controlled Galicia before the start of World War I, though. 2. Frankly, the acquisition of Dutch-speaking northern Belgium is the only reason that I can imagine the Netherlands would actually be willing to enter World War I on the side of the Central Powers in this TL. However, this would also almost certainly mean the loss of the Netherlands' various colonies--such as the Dutch East Indies (as in, the territories that are now known as Indonesia in our TL). As I understand it the plan for Poland after the defeat of Russia was a Polish state which would include Austrian Galicia, with an Hapsburg head of state as a satellite/buffer which would be dependent on the two German empires. Galicia would be lost but I think the Austrians assumed it would be too unstable if left inside the empire while there was a Polish state. Agree on the 2nd point but am doubtful even that would be enough to be likely to move the Netherlands out of neutrality. |
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Tipsyfish
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Post by Tipsyfish on Oct 7, 2016 1:49:50 GMT
I'm currently writing a scenario that would evolve the Netherlands joining the Central Powers and because of that Germany is able to capture Paris in late 1914, and win against Russia in mid-late 1915. Against France, what sort of territorial changes would be realistically taken in both Europe and colonial wise? What land would the Netherlands want? Could they gain any colonies from France? (I'm thinking mainly in the Americas with French Guinea, or possibly some islands in the Caribbean) I doubt that England would be willing to give up much of anything land wise which is why I'm sticking with the French. Against Russia, What land for Austria-Hungary and Germany? If France and England are at peace would the Ottomans declare war against Russia? Could the campaigns be successful or would they fail like the Caucasus mountains campaign did IOTL? Frankly, I find it extremely hard to believe that the Netherlands would enter World War I on the side of the Central Powers. Indeed, what exactly in it for them? An annexation of the northern, Dutch-speaking part of Belgium? Also, Dutch entry into World War I almost certainly means the loss of the Dutch East Indies (as in, what is now Indonesia) to Japan--something that the Netherlands certainly wouldn't want! Anyway, though, one can imagine other ways for Germany to win World War I in the West in either late 1914 or 1915. In such a scenario, here is what exactly I think that the final peace would have looked like: 1. Germany annexes iron ore-rich Briey and Longwy and possibly the rest of Lorraine from France. 2. Germany acquires many, if not most, French colonies in both Asia and Africa. 3. France is forced to pay war reparations to Germany for decades as well as to have permanent limits on the size of its military. 4. Germany might transform Belgium into a German protectorate; however, it might drop this demand in exchange for Britain agreeing to make peace with Germany. 5. Romania enters World War I on the side of the Central Powers (as per a secret 1883 alliance which Romania broke in our TL) and thus acquires Bessarabia from Russia after the end of World War I. 6. The Ottoman Empire enters World War I on the side of the Central Powers (in order to acquire some territory from its longtime rival Russia) and thus, at the very least, reacquires the Kars region (which it previously lost to Russia in 1877-1878) from Russia. 7. If the war lasts long enough, I can certainly imagine the Niedermayer-Hentig Expedition (if it still occurs in this TL, that is) successfully getting Afghanistan to enter World War I on the side of the Central Powers and thus in Afghanistan acquiring parts of Russian Central Asia after the end of World War I in this TL. 8. Austria-Hungary will probably either annex both Serbia (minus Macedonia) and Montenegro or turn them into Austro-Hungarian satellite states/protectorates. 9. Bulgaria enters World War I on the side of the Central Powers and annexes Macedonia from Serbia. 10. At the very least, Russia loses all or almost all of its territory west of Minsk and south of Riga as well as forced to pay war reparations to Germany for decades as well as to have permanent limits on the size of its military. Of course, given the fear that such peace terms might not be enforceable indefinitely (for instance, Russia can secretly rearm somewhere in Siberia) as well as to the powerful long-term demographic and population threat from Russia, Germany might still be tempted to push Russia back to its our TL's Brest-Litovsk borders in this TL. 11. Britain loses none of its colonies and gets a white peace. 12. Japan (in spite of being on the losing side in World War I in this TL) keeps all of its territorial gains in East Asia. 13. Sweden (a longtime rival of Russia, if I remember correctly) might have entered World War I on the side of the Central Powers in this TL and thus have acquired some or all of Finland from Russia after the end of World War I in this TL. Anyway, how exactly does all of that sound? Extremely unlikely. 1.) That is very likely yes 2.) No way in hell. France would never be willing to lose it's empire like that, nor could Germany have even possibly acquired anything of the sort in the first place. You're talking about 4.4 MILLION square miles and 55.5 MILLION people. They could have never even begun to enforce control over any of it. 3.) That's something that France did to the Germans after four years of war and went way beyond what their allies thought was anywhere near realistic. France wanted Germany to NEVER raise again, Germany did not want that for France. 4-6.) All possible 7.) Afghanistan couldn't fight the (essentially) completely autonomous people of their border with Russia. They didn't have the manpower or power projection to do so. 8.) Turn them into Satellite states. Some talks had existed about annexing the whole of Serbia but I think that would only fuel the fire. 10.) Same as France, no way in hell. The real reason that Brest-Litovsk was as harsh as it was, was due to the fact that the CP Desperately needed the food that those lands contended and could be farmed. 11.) Pretty much what I thought 12.) possible, The German colonies were of minor value. Britian would never let Japan have control of German Guinea though or Samoa 13.) They would have to fight the Finns and Russians to do that. Finns had no desire to be under Swedish control, they wanted independence or just simply to go back to pre 1905 autonomy under Russia. |
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steffen
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Post by steffen on Mar 9, 2018 9:49:03 GMT
Interesting but a bit unspecific scenario.
I go with this:
the netherlands join the germans, help em to crush belgium - france and uk suffer some significant defeats and so in early 1915 france surrender after paris is taken/encircled and the french army in the autum/winter 1914 destroyed.
Bulgaria had joined because of this, also the Osmans (as OTL).
Italy is neutral (to early, to little sucsess for the entente).
UK was in the war, took the otl taken german colonies, prepared for a larger operation against the dutch east indias, also the japanese.
War ends in the west because a german breakthrough crush the BEF, that run to the coast (at Abeville)
A lot stuff was like OTL - distant blocade, "rape of belgium", austrian defeats (still a bit less costly but huge dying in the carpath mountains).
So the british run to abeville but get catched/captured in that process.
UK offers terms - betraying france (who want to fight on).
2 months later france surrenders (say may/june 1915), russia accept terms in autum 1915 after a succsessfull sommer operation pushing back the frontline to the line Klapeida - Kaunas - Vilnius - Brest - Chernowitz.
Peace treaty means:
A.) France: Suffers major, crippling reparations. Target is to crush its economy for 100 years. So a sum per year for 100 years is forced onto france. Also strategic ressource heavy areas are included into german territority. To save major losses they accept that germany is free to operate from french channel- and atlantic ports (Lesson learned from the distant blocade). French army reduced to a nil-factor, 50k soldiers, no gun bigger as 75mm, only a few MG, no fortresses.
Also the french loose colonies, that helps the germans to fortify their areas in africa, also madagascar and indochina is gone.
Fleet is reduced to some old cruisers, slow destroyers. Basically france is no longer a military factor. But in the same time they are allowed to be integrated in a german "Mitteleuropa". The dutch get french guynea and also some african colonies. France loose basically everthing outside Algeria
b.) Belgium: loose some areas to the dutch, loose their colony (included into german Mittelafrica), otherwise no larger losses, but again are included in Mitteleuropa
c.) Serbia - is reduced to a weak, impotent state, it is controlled by the victorious CPs, esp. Bulgaria and AH.
d.) Romania - after declaring war in late 1914 they get bessarabia from russia, but the bulgarians are very careful about them
e.) osmans - they get stuff from russia they lost since 1877, reparations, the Baku-Region will be leased for 100 years (Osmans and germans 50:50) Against UK nothing - because nothing happened at this frontlines. Just all payments the osmans had are gone
f.) UK - they suffer a big hit in pride, reputation, but nothing else. No colonies are taken. But they had to give back everything they took from the dutch and germans.
Russia - they loose poland, some baltics and have to pay moderate reparations (in raw materials), they loose the baku-region in economic terms, but the ground is still russian.
Poland - the problematic hot iron. I see a rump poland, build out of russian areas, maybe with some austrian ones (if AH accept this - for this you need an austrian king ruling it. a puppet).
The baltics: here i could see a small state, another puppet of the CP (here germany), the size depends how late the tsar ends this war.
Following this war the "winners" face huge social problems, esp. germany will need to democratize MORE. So the power of the kaiser is a bit reduced, the parliament strengthed. The prussian unfair election system is gone (the army no longer could be used as a weapon against the civilians).
What will happen next? Who knows.Social unrest in defeated france (communism?), but also in winning germany, also the AH-problems will not vanish. But with germany as the central superpower the many minorities will behave... maybe in a few decades AH is exploding? Or could reforms help...
it seems to be an interesting scenario - but you need the british to drop out.
But in ANY "Germany win"-scenario france is doomed as an economic and military threat. With russia germany would find a peaceful solution, with france? Nope - to much hate, to much crimes in the past - often exaggerated that poison the chances.
The clear winner of this is - the osmans. They will crush easily any rebellion, the germans will support their economy, building railways (instead of guns) help the german economy.
The war is short enough that france could pay for the CP costs. So a 1929 crash is limited to the USA, no worldwide economic crisis. Even the 1929-crash is not necessary, USA had lost a huge potential growing, but also stood save in money spending. USA is one of the "loosers", because they had passed the chance for huge deals and switching from debitor to creditor of the british empire.
Japan - i ignored. Here a lot stuff could happen. If they keep the german colonies they took, germany AND the dutch will be an archenemy... they will support china against japan, strong military forces - will also make the british unhappy. Esp. with germany and/or the dutch taking the french pacific areas (maybe as a compensation for loosing stuff to the japanese).
The USA will be unhappy with all sides.With germany - for messing around in the pacific, with the british for loosing a war and creating this situation, with japan, who will make troubles in the US-china -connections.
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