Post by futurist on Oct 9, 2016 7:37:43 GMT
PC = Plausibility Check.
Basically, what I am thinking of is this--if German Kaiser Wilhelm II, for whatever reason (such as an *extremely* severe head injury), gets a personality change shortly before he becomes the German Kaiser in 1888, would this series of events be plausible? :
-1890: German Kaiser Wilhelm II renews the Reinsurance Treaty with Russia and, to put the icing on the cake, offers to throw Austria-Hungary under the bus and to ally with Russia. Russia accepts this German offer due to its belief that Germany can be a good partner for partitioning Austria-Hungary between the two of them in the future.
-1890s: Germany strengthens its alliance with Italy (the Triple Alliance now becomes the Dual Alliance due to Austria-Hungary being thrown under the bus by Germany and thus being kicked out of this alliance) and its secret alliance with Romania. Sometime afterwards, both Russia and Romania formally join the Dual Alliance (of Germany and Italy) and thus transform it into the Quadruple Alliance (of Germany, Italy, Russia, and Romania).
-1903: After a successful pro-Russian coup in Serbia, Serbia joins the Quadruple Alliance and thus transforms it into the Quintuple Alliance (also known as the Central Powers Alliance).
-1917: Franz Joseph, the monarch of Austria-Hungary, passes away and is succeeded by his nephew Franz Ferdinand (who isn't assassinated in Sarajevo in 1914 in this TL). After the Auslgeich (Austro-Hungarian Union) collapses shortly afterwards and Austria-Hungary descends into civil war as a result of Hungary's attempt to secede, the Quintuple Alliance immediately seize their chance and invade Austria-Hungary (after staging some fake Austrian border attacks similar to what Nazi Germany did in regards to Poland in 1939 in our TL, of course).
While both Britain and France are *extremely* angry at this move on the part of the Quintuple Alliance, they don't actually do anything meaningful in response to this due to their belief that they cannot defeat such an *extremely* powerful alliance.
-1918: The Quintuple Alliance finishes (successfully) militarily crushing Austria-Hungary--forcing Franz Ferdinand to surrender to the Quintuple Alliance.
Afterwards, the Quintuple Alliance imposes this peace deal:
-Germany annexes (German) Austria, Bohemia, Moravia, and *maybe* northern Slovenia as well.
-Russia annexes Galicia and either annexes or puppetizes Slovakia.
-Italy annexes Trentino, South Tyrol (for defensive purposes), the Istrian Peninsula (including Trieste, of course), Fiume (Rijeka), and Dalmatia.
-Romania annexes Transylvania and any other Romanian-majority parts of Austria-Hungary.
-Serbia annexes Vojvodina, Bosnia, Croatia (minus Dalmatia and the Istrian Peninsula, of course), and either all of Slovenia (minus the Istrian Peninsula, of course) or only southern Slovenia (if Germany annexes northern Slovenia, that is).
-The Hungarian separatists are allowed to remain in power if they agreed to transform Hungary into a neutral state (through a treaty--as was the case for Belgium) through which both the German bloc (Germany, Italy, and Romania) and the Russian bloc (Russia, Slovakia, and Serbia) have a freedom of passage (as well as to *all* of Hungary's territorial losses, of course). If the Hungarian separatists refuse to agree to *all* of these terms, then the Quintuple Alliance forcibly removes them from power in Hungary and imposes a new, more pliant Hungarian leadership who *is* willing to agree to *all* of these terms. (Indeed, having Hungary as a neutral state with freedom of passage for everyone would make it easier for Germans to access Romania and make it easier for Russians to access Serbia.)
Indeed, how exactly does all of that sound?
Also, how exactly does my scenario here sound in general?
Basically, what I am thinking of is this--if German Kaiser Wilhelm II, for whatever reason (such as an *extremely* severe head injury), gets a personality change shortly before he becomes the German Kaiser in 1888, would this series of events be plausible? :
-1890: German Kaiser Wilhelm II renews the Reinsurance Treaty with Russia and, to put the icing on the cake, offers to throw Austria-Hungary under the bus and to ally with Russia. Russia accepts this German offer due to its belief that Germany can be a good partner for partitioning Austria-Hungary between the two of them in the future.
-1890s: Germany strengthens its alliance with Italy (the Triple Alliance now becomes the Dual Alliance due to Austria-Hungary being thrown under the bus by Germany and thus being kicked out of this alliance) and its secret alliance with Romania. Sometime afterwards, both Russia and Romania formally join the Dual Alliance (of Germany and Italy) and thus transform it into the Quadruple Alliance (of Germany, Italy, Russia, and Romania).
-1903: After a successful pro-Russian coup in Serbia, Serbia joins the Quadruple Alliance and thus transforms it into the Quintuple Alliance (also known as the Central Powers Alliance).
-1917: Franz Joseph, the monarch of Austria-Hungary, passes away and is succeeded by his nephew Franz Ferdinand (who isn't assassinated in Sarajevo in 1914 in this TL). After the Auslgeich (Austro-Hungarian Union) collapses shortly afterwards and Austria-Hungary descends into civil war as a result of Hungary's attempt to secede, the Quintuple Alliance immediately seize their chance and invade Austria-Hungary (after staging some fake Austrian border attacks similar to what Nazi Germany did in regards to Poland in 1939 in our TL, of course).
While both Britain and France are *extremely* angry at this move on the part of the Quintuple Alliance, they don't actually do anything meaningful in response to this due to their belief that they cannot defeat such an *extremely* powerful alliance.
-1918: The Quintuple Alliance finishes (successfully) militarily crushing Austria-Hungary--forcing Franz Ferdinand to surrender to the Quintuple Alliance.
Afterwards, the Quintuple Alliance imposes this peace deal:
-Germany annexes (German) Austria, Bohemia, Moravia, and *maybe* northern Slovenia as well.
-Russia annexes Galicia and either annexes or puppetizes Slovakia.
-Italy annexes Trentino, South Tyrol (for defensive purposes), the Istrian Peninsula (including Trieste, of course), Fiume (Rijeka), and Dalmatia.
-Romania annexes Transylvania and any other Romanian-majority parts of Austria-Hungary.
-Serbia annexes Vojvodina, Bosnia, Croatia (minus Dalmatia and the Istrian Peninsula, of course), and either all of Slovenia (minus the Istrian Peninsula, of course) or only southern Slovenia (if Germany annexes northern Slovenia, that is).
-The Hungarian separatists are allowed to remain in power if they agreed to transform Hungary into a neutral state (through a treaty--as was the case for Belgium) through which both the German bloc (Germany, Italy, and Romania) and the Russian bloc (Russia, Slovakia, and Serbia) have a freedom of passage (as well as to *all* of Hungary's territorial losses, of course). If the Hungarian separatists refuse to agree to *all* of these terms, then the Quintuple Alliance forcibly removes them from power in Hungary and imposes a new, more pliant Hungarian leadership who *is* willing to agree to *all* of these terms. (Indeed, having Hungary as a neutral state with freedom of passage for everyone would make it easier for Germans to access Romania and make it easier for Russians to access Serbia.)
Indeed, how exactly does all of that sound?
Also, how exactly does my scenario here sound in general?
