Post by futurist on Nov 21, 2016 6:36:50 GMT
Here is my scenario for you:
German Prince Wilhelm (our TL's German Kaiser Wilhelm II) falls down the stairs, hits his head, descends into unconsciousness, and dies as a result of blood loss shortly afterwards; this event occurs in 1880. Thus, Wilhelm's younger brother Heinrich becomes the new heir to the Imperial German throne in this TL and becomes the German Kaiser after the death of both his father and grandfather in 1888. Unlike Wilhelm in our TL, Kaiser Heinrich refuses to engage in a naval arms race with Britain in this TL (though some German naval construction still occurs in this TL since the German Navy was a joke before the 1890s or so). Also, unlike Wilhelm in our TL, Kaiser Heinrich doesn't surround himself with conservatives and militarists and thus is more willing to cooperate with the German Reichstag (including the Social Democrats there) while also ensuring that a general European war doesn't break out in the 1910s. In addition to this, due to Kaiser Heinrich's moderation and large deference to the wishes of the German Reichstag, the liberal and socialist members of the German Reichstag certainly aren't in a rush to reduce the powers of the German Kaiser. (After all, since Kaiser Heinrich and his Chancellors already support them in regards to getting most of what they want, why rush to reduce the German Kaiser's power?) Also, in either the late 1910s or sometime in the 1920s, Kaiser Heinrich successfully cooperates with the German Reichstag to implement universal conscription in Germany; also, when some Junkers in the German military try plotting a coup against Kaiser Heinrich in response to this (after all, universal conscription = an end to the Junker monopoly over the German military), their plot gets discovered in the planning stages and all of these Junkers get put on trial for treason, get convicted for treason, and get shot afterwards.
Due to his successful diplomacy, Kaiser Heinrich is able to successfully create alliances between Germany, Britain, the Ottoman Empire, and Japan--in addition to reinforcing Germany's existing alliance with Austria-Hungary. Meanwhile, the Franco-Russian alliance is still eventually created in this TL both for economic reasons as well as due to the fact that Germany's ally Austria-Hungary and Russia become rivals in the Balkans. As for Italy, it eventually decides that joining the Franco-Russian alliance is better and thus dumps its alliance with Germany and Austria-Hungary in favor of an alliance with France and Russia. Meanwhile, in either the late 1910s or sometime in the 1920s (depending on whether Franz Ferdinand gets put in charge of Austria-Hungary after Franz Joseph's death or whether Austro-Hungarian Crown Prince Rudolf has a son instead of a daughter in 1883 in this TL who in turn gets put in charge of Austria-Hungary after Franz Joseph's death), Austria-Hungary descends into civil war as a result of Hungary's attempt to secede from Austria-Hungary. Due to both Germany and Britain threatening military intervention in support of Austria, Russia refuses to militarily assist this Hungarian rebellion. Thus, this Hungarian rebellion quickly gets crushed by Austrian forces--with some help from Romania (to whom Austria promised Transylvania in exchange for this; indeed, Austria's leadership has concluded that it is better to give up a little of Austria-Hungary's territory in exchange for having a better chance of preserving their empire over the long(er)-run). Afterwards, Austria fulfills its promise and transfers Transylvania to Romania--thus ensuring that Romania will never again be(come) hostile to Austria-Hungary. In addition to this, with its Hungarian and Romanian problems successfully taken care of, Austria-Hungary begins industrializing and developing its economy more aggressively than it previously had.
Due to his love of modern technology, German Kaiser Heinrich enthusiastically promotes the development of more modern military technology throughout his 40 year reign. As a part of this, Kaiser Heinrich successfully pushes through an extremely massive air force construction program in Germany once he realizes the value of air power in future wars and conflicts; indeed, since Germany didn't spend massive amounts of money on a naval construction program in this TL, Germany certainly had a lot of money to spend on its extremely massive air force construction program--a program that results in a German air force which is--in terms of air power--as powerful as the German army is in terms of land power. After Kaiser Heinrich dies due to cancer in 1929, he is succeeded by his eldest son, Kaiser Friedrich IV (who has a different name in this TL and who isn't a hemophiliac in this TL). In terms of his policies, Friedrich pretty much continues all of his father's policies and pretty much governs as his father had governed--specifically by pursuing smart diplomacy and by giving a lot of deference to the wishes and desires of the German Reichstag.
As for Russian Tsar Nicholas II, due to the butterfly effect, he has two sons in this TL--the hemophiliac Alexei and the non-hemophiliac Alexander. In turn, this allows Nicholas to remove Alexei from the line of succession to the Russian throne in favor of Alexander. However, Rasputin is still in the Russian court in this TL in order to treat Alexei; indeed, the combination of Rasputin's influence on Nicholas and Alexandra and the general incompetence of Nicholas's rule (with a revolution still occurring in 1905-1906 and with large amounts of labor unrest occurring at various points in time afterwards) eventually convinces some of the other members of the Russian royal family that an internal palace coup in needed. Thus, in 1926, Russian Tsar Nicholas II is ousted in an internal palace coup, put under house arrest somewhere in Russia together with his wife Alexandra and son Alexei (with Rasputin being killed during this internal palace coup), and gets replaced by his younger son Alexander (who becomes Russian Tsar Alexander IV). Alexander (who is in his 20s at this point in time and is also extremely ambitious) decides to clean both the Russian government and the Russian military of corruption, inefficiency, and mismanagement and thus fires a lot of incompetent Russian government officials (including at the very top) as well as firing a lot of incompetent Russian military personnel (including the generals at the very top). Of course, Alexander also governs like an autocrat just like his father Nicholas did; however, unlike his father Nicholas, Alexander governs as a smart and effective autocrat.
By the late 1930s, the Franco-Russo-Italian alliance become convinced that they can win a general war against Germany, Britain, and their allies. Thus, the French, Russians, and Italians increase their covert efforts and attempts to create some kind of ethnic provocation in either Austria-Hungary or the Ottoman Empire. In 1940, their efforts pay off when a small ethnic Italian rebellion breaks out in Trentino, Trieste, and Fiume (all of which are located within Austria-Hungary). In response to this rebellion (and with the support of both France and Russia), Italy quickly sends Austria-Hungary and ultimatum not to militarily crush this rebellion and instead to allow all of these areas to join Italy; when Austria-Hungary (backed by Britain, Germany, and its other allies) refuses to do this, Italy declares war on Austria-Hungary--thus triggering the various European alliances and causing World War I to break out 26 years later than in our TL.
While France, Russia, and Italy are initially extremely successful in this TL's World War I (with Russia invading and occupying Romania in order to bypass Austria-Hungary's Carpathian defenses and in order to link up with its Balkan ally Serbia), their attempt to quickly win World War I in this TL ultimately fails when France's advances in both Alsace-Lorraine and Belgium get halted by Germany, when Italy's advances in the Alps get halted at the Brenner Pass by both Germany and Austria-Hungary, and especially when Russia's advance to the outskirts of both Vienna and Berlin gets halted by Germany, Austria-Hungary, and the British Expeditionary Force (BEF). (However, Russia, Serbia, and Italy are able to create a land corridor between their forces in Slovenia; in turn, this allows Russia to provide crucial supplies such as oil to both Italy and France.) While Germany is able to hold its ground, it is incapable of launching large-scale offensives against either France or Russia without British military assistance; thus, for the first 1-2 years of this TL's World War I, the front lines don't move too much. However, after Britain implements conscription and begins sending large amounts of British and British Empire troops to help its allies (especially Germany and Austria-Hungary), the tide in this TL's World War I gradually begins to turn in favor of Britain, Germany, and their allies. Eventually, Britain, Germany, and their allies break through on multiple fronts and thus force France, Italy, and Russia to all capitulate. (You can fill in the details yourself if you like.) Thus, this TL's World War I ends in either 1944 or 1945.
Anyway, my question here is this--what exactly would the post-World War I settlement in this TL look like?
Indeed, any thoughts on this?
German Prince Wilhelm (our TL's German Kaiser Wilhelm II) falls down the stairs, hits his head, descends into unconsciousness, and dies as a result of blood loss shortly afterwards; this event occurs in 1880. Thus, Wilhelm's younger brother Heinrich becomes the new heir to the Imperial German throne in this TL and becomes the German Kaiser after the death of both his father and grandfather in 1888. Unlike Wilhelm in our TL, Kaiser Heinrich refuses to engage in a naval arms race with Britain in this TL (though some German naval construction still occurs in this TL since the German Navy was a joke before the 1890s or so). Also, unlike Wilhelm in our TL, Kaiser Heinrich doesn't surround himself with conservatives and militarists and thus is more willing to cooperate with the German Reichstag (including the Social Democrats there) while also ensuring that a general European war doesn't break out in the 1910s. In addition to this, due to Kaiser Heinrich's moderation and large deference to the wishes of the German Reichstag, the liberal and socialist members of the German Reichstag certainly aren't in a rush to reduce the powers of the German Kaiser. (After all, since Kaiser Heinrich and his Chancellors already support them in regards to getting most of what they want, why rush to reduce the German Kaiser's power?) Also, in either the late 1910s or sometime in the 1920s, Kaiser Heinrich successfully cooperates with the German Reichstag to implement universal conscription in Germany; also, when some Junkers in the German military try plotting a coup against Kaiser Heinrich in response to this (after all, universal conscription = an end to the Junker monopoly over the German military), their plot gets discovered in the planning stages and all of these Junkers get put on trial for treason, get convicted for treason, and get shot afterwards.
Due to his successful diplomacy, Kaiser Heinrich is able to successfully create alliances between Germany, Britain, the Ottoman Empire, and Japan--in addition to reinforcing Germany's existing alliance with Austria-Hungary. Meanwhile, the Franco-Russian alliance is still eventually created in this TL both for economic reasons as well as due to the fact that Germany's ally Austria-Hungary and Russia become rivals in the Balkans. As for Italy, it eventually decides that joining the Franco-Russian alliance is better and thus dumps its alliance with Germany and Austria-Hungary in favor of an alliance with France and Russia. Meanwhile, in either the late 1910s or sometime in the 1920s (depending on whether Franz Ferdinand gets put in charge of Austria-Hungary after Franz Joseph's death or whether Austro-Hungarian Crown Prince Rudolf has a son instead of a daughter in 1883 in this TL who in turn gets put in charge of Austria-Hungary after Franz Joseph's death), Austria-Hungary descends into civil war as a result of Hungary's attempt to secede from Austria-Hungary. Due to both Germany and Britain threatening military intervention in support of Austria, Russia refuses to militarily assist this Hungarian rebellion. Thus, this Hungarian rebellion quickly gets crushed by Austrian forces--with some help from Romania (to whom Austria promised Transylvania in exchange for this; indeed, Austria's leadership has concluded that it is better to give up a little of Austria-Hungary's territory in exchange for having a better chance of preserving their empire over the long(er)-run). Afterwards, Austria fulfills its promise and transfers Transylvania to Romania--thus ensuring that Romania will never again be(come) hostile to Austria-Hungary. In addition to this, with its Hungarian and Romanian problems successfully taken care of, Austria-Hungary begins industrializing and developing its economy more aggressively than it previously had.
Due to his love of modern technology, German Kaiser Heinrich enthusiastically promotes the development of more modern military technology throughout his 40 year reign. As a part of this, Kaiser Heinrich successfully pushes through an extremely massive air force construction program in Germany once he realizes the value of air power in future wars and conflicts; indeed, since Germany didn't spend massive amounts of money on a naval construction program in this TL, Germany certainly had a lot of money to spend on its extremely massive air force construction program--a program that results in a German air force which is--in terms of air power--as powerful as the German army is in terms of land power. After Kaiser Heinrich dies due to cancer in 1929, he is succeeded by his eldest son, Kaiser Friedrich IV (who has a different name in this TL and who isn't a hemophiliac in this TL). In terms of his policies, Friedrich pretty much continues all of his father's policies and pretty much governs as his father had governed--specifically by pursuing smart diplomacy and by giving a lot of deference to the wishes and desires of the German Reichstag.
As for Russian Tsar Nicholas II, due to the butterfly effect, he has two sons in this TL--the hemophiliac Alexei and the non-hemophiliac Alexander. In turn, this allows Nicholas to remove Alexei from the line of succession to the Russian throne in favor of Alexander. However, Rasputin is still in the Russian court in this TL in order to treat Alexei; indeed, the combination of Rasputin's influence on Nicholas and Alexandra and the general incompetence of Nicholas's rule (with a revolution still occurring in 1905-1906 and with large amounts of labor unrest occurring at various points in time afterwards) eventually convinces some of the other members of the Russian royal family that an internal palace coup in needed. Thus, in 1926, Russian Tsar Nicholas II is ousted in an internal palace coup, put under house arrest somewhere in Russia together with his wife Alexandra and son Alexei (with Rasputin being killed during this internal palace coup), and gets replaced by his younger son Alexander (who becomes Russian Tsar Alexander IV). Alexander (who is in his 20s at this point in time and is also extremely ambitious) decides to clean both the Russian government and the Russian military of corruption, inefficiency, and mismanagement and thus fires a lot of incompetent Russian government officials (including at the very top) as well as firing a lot of incompetent Russian military personnel (including the generals at the very top). Of course, Alexander also governs like an autocrat just like his father Nicholas did; however, unlike his father Nicholas, Alexander governs as a smart and effective autocrat.
By the late 1930s, the Franco-Russo-Italian alliance become convinced that they can win a general war against Germany, Britain, and their allies. Thus, the French, Russians, and Italians increase their covert efforts and attempts to create some kind of ethnic provocation in either Austria-Hungary or the Ottoman Empire. In 1940, their efforts pay off when a small ethnic Italian rebellion breaks out in Trentino, Trieste, and Fiume (all of which are located within Austria-Hungary). In response to this rebellion (and with the support of both France and Russia), Italy quickly sends Austria-Hungary and ultimatum not to militarily crush this rebellion and instead to allow all of these areas to join Italy; when Austria-Hungary (backed by Britain, Germany, and its other allies) refuses to do this, Italy declares war on Austria-Hungary--thus triggering the various European alliances and causing World War I to break out 26 years later than in our TL.
While France, Russia, and Italy are initially extremely successful in this TL's World War I (with Russia invading and occupying Romania in order to bypass Austria-Hungary's Carpathian defenses and in order to link up with its Balkan ally Serbia), their attempt to quickly win World War I in this TL ultimately fails when France's advances in both Alsace-Lorraine and Belgium get halted by Germany, when Italy's advances in the Alps get halted at the Brenner Pass by both Germany and Austria-Hungary, and especially when Russia's advance to the outskirts of both Vienna and Berlin gets halted by Germany, Austria-Hungary, and the British Expeditionary Force (BEF). (However, Russia, Serbia, and Italy are able to create a land corridor between their forces in Slovenia; in turn, this allows Russia to provide crucial supplies such as oil to both Italy and France.) While Germany is able to hold its ground, it is incapable of launching large-scale offensives against either France or Russia without British military assistance; thus, for the first 1-2 years of this TL's World War I, the front lines don't move too much. However, after Britain implements conscription and begins sending large amounts of British and British Empire troops to help its allies (especially Germany and Austria-Hungary), the tide in this TL's World War I gradually begins to turn in favor of Britain, Germany, and their allies. Eventually, Britain, Germany, and their allies break through on multiple fronts and thus force France, Italy, and Russia to all capitulate. (You can fill in the details yourself if you like.) Thus, this TL's World War I ends in either 1944 or 1945.
Anyway, my question here is this--what exactly would the post-World War I settlement in this TL look like?
Indeed, any thoughts on this?
