What if:- The US never breaks with Taiwan

[stevep]

  Inspired by Trump's association with Taiwan I wondered what if in the late 70's the US continues to recognise Taiwan as an independent state.  Its still gone with the rest of the world and recognised communist China plus accepting them having the permanent seat in the Security council.  However they refuse to drop Taiwan and accept mainland China's claim its only a break-away province.

  Thinking of two main factors with this:
a)  Deng's reforms and China's dramatic growth in the early years especially relied heavily on foreign investment and expertise and the majority of this in the early years came from Taiwan and Hong Kong, which may not be the case, while its also likely there will be less from the US and probably other western nations.

b)  As such China may struggle and won't expand as dramatically as OTL.  This might mean that there is more questioning of opening up to the rest of the world.  Not saying it will relapse into Mao like idealogical and autocratic excesses but can see it being significantly weaker and deeply distrustful of the west.  It will also probably be isolated somewhat diplomatically as I doubt it would form a new alliance with the Soviets who deeply distrusted the Chines once they broke with them over Stalin's reputation and methods.

  I would see TTL's 2016 as being somewhat poorer economically without the dramatic development of China.  The western powers are likely to have a broader industrial base but still be challenged if not surpassed by assorted Asian tigers.  Without China Japan is still likely to be the 2nd economic power and possibly might have emerged from its prolonged economic malaise.  Hong Kong is likely to have a grim future as I can't see Britain holding onto it once the lease on the new territories ends but hopefully you might see a lot of its people offered refuge in the west before its handed over to this darker China.

  You might see China following the Russian path of economic and social collapse, although whether it would be as relatively bloodless as the Russian one, presuming that still goes as 'well' as OTL I wouldn't like to say.  However it might still be staggering on, or doing moderately well with a somewhat limited level of reform. 

  Anyway, what do people think might happen?

  Steve

[lordroel]

Dec 3, 2016 13:00:27 GMT stevep said:

 
  Hong Kong is likely to have a grim future as I can't see Britain holding onto it once the lease on the new territories ends but hopefully you might see a lot of its people offered refuge in the west before its handed over to this darker China.

  Steve

Always wonder if there where two diplomatic China's who are recognized that instead of handing of to mainland China the United Kingdom would hand it over to island China instead.

[Roderick3D]

America will stay preferring the low price of the P.R.C but don't recognize them.

[doug181]

Probably our economy stronger less industrial loss if this occurs.

[stevep]

Dec 3, 2016 13:31:48 GMT lordroel said:

Dec 3, 2016 13:00:27 GMT stevep said:

 
  Hong Kong is likely to have a grim future as I can't see Britain holding onto it once the lease on the new territories ends but hopefully you might see a lot of its people offered refuge in the west before its handed over to this darker China.

  Steve

Always wonder if there where two diplomatic China's who are recognized that instead of handing of to mainland China the United Kingdom would hand it over to island China instead.

  I don't think this would work as its likely to trigger a war between China and Taiwan if Taiwan decided to risk accepting it.  Hong Kong is militarily indefensible against any attack from mainland China.  Also such a conflict might well draw the US in so if it heard about any such plan by Britain it would probably oppose it.

  Steve

[stevep]

Dec 4, 2016 13:04:09 GMT doug181 said:

Probably our economy stronger less industrial loss if this occurs.

  Quite possibly, at least to a degree.  there would still be the smaller Asian 'tigers' and without China developing as it did Japan might come out of its prolonged economic problems.  Or possibly India might develop more dramatically.  Or some combination of assorted powers but its likely that there will be increasing rivalry to western European industrial and technological domination.

  Steve

[deltaforce]

Dec 4, 2016 22:32:19 GMT stevep said:

Dec 3, 2016 13:31:48 GMT lordroel said:

Always wonder if there where two diplomatic China's who are recognized that instead of handing of to mainland China the United Kingdom would hand it over to island China instead.

  I don't think this would work as its likely to trigger a war between China and Taiwan if Taiwan decided to risk accepting it.  Hong Kong is militarily indefensible against any attack from mainland China.  Also such a conflict might well draw the US in so if it heard about any such plan by Britain it would probably oppose it.

  Steve

There wouldn't really be much stopping the PRC from taking Hong Kong if it really wanted, as with India's 1961 forcible annexation of Goa from the Portuguese. The main consideration for the PRC would be world opinion and possibly sanctions, but if it doesn't have normalized relations with anyone then there would be no deterrent effect.

[lordroel]

Mar 14, 2017 3:13:11 GMT deltaforce said:

Dec 4, 2016 22:32:19 GMT stevep said:

  I don't think this would work as its likely to trigger a war between China and Taiwan if Taiwan decided to risk accepting it.  Hong Kong is militarily indefensible against any attack from mainland China.  Also such a conflict might well draw the US in so if it heard about any such plan by Britain it would probably oppose it.

  Steve

There wouldn't really be much stopping the PRC from taking Hong Kong if it really wanted, as with India's 1961 forcible annexation of Goa from the Portuguese. The main consideration for the PRC would be world opinion and possibly sanctions, but if it doesn't have normalized relations with anyone then there would be no deterrent effect.

Taking Hong Kong would mean a conflict with the United Kingdom, which mean a conflict with the United States.

[deltaforce]

Mar 14, 2017 3:55:52 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 14, 2017 3:13:11 GMT deltaforce said:

There wouldn't really be much stopping the PRC from taking Hong Kong if it really wanted, as with India's 1961 forcible annexation of Goa from the Portuguese. The main consideration for the PRC would be world opinion and possibly sanctions, but if it doesn't have normalized relations with anyone then there would be no deterrent effect.

Taking Hong Kong would mean a conflict with the United Kingdom, which mean a conflict with the United States.

The United States has never been keen on fighting colonial wars on behalf of other countries, and while it might be possible to win a naval conflict with the PRC (possibly even for the Royal Navy itself, depending on the era and funding) a land war in Asia is not something to take lightly. There are likely other conflicts or tense situations going on elsewhere in Asia or the wider world. There's more reason to think it would be a Goa type situation that would seriously harm the PRC's foreign relations than that it would lead to a major conflict, especially once the PRC has bulked up and acquired a nuclear arsenal.

[lordroel]

Mar 14, 2017 5:11:39 GMT deltaforce said:

Mar 14, 2017 3:55:52 GMT lordroel said:

Taking Hong Kong would mean a conflict with the United Kingdom, which mean a conflict with the United States.

The United States has never been keen on fighting colonial wars on behalf of other countries, and while it might be possible to win a naval conflict with the PRC (possibly even for the Royal Navy itself, depending on the era and funding) a land war in Asia is not something to take lightly. There are likely other conflicts or tense situations going on elsewhere in Asia or the wider world. There's more reason to think it would be a Goa type situation that would seriously harm the PRC's foreign relations than that it would lead to a major conflict, especially once the PRC has bulked up and acquired a nuclear arsenal.

The Royal Navy would need a base of operations, are there any Asian countries like Singapore who would like to host the Royal Navy knowing that China will not be happy with it.

[deltaforce]

Mar 14, 2017 15:51:35 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 14, 2017 5:11:39 GMT deltaforce said:

The United States has never been keen on fighting colonial wars on behalf of other countries, and while it might be possible to win a naval conflict with the PRC (possibly even for the Royal Navy itself, depending on the era and funding) a land war in Asia is not something to take lightly. There are likely other conflicts or tense situations going on elsewhere in Asia or the wider world. There's more reason to think it would be a Goa type situation that would seriously harm the PRC's foreign relations than that it would lead to a major conflict, especially once the PRC has bulked up and acquired a nuclear arsenal.

The Royal Navy would need a base of operations, are there any Asian countries like Singapore who would like to host the Royal Navy knowing that China will not be happy with it.

Singapore is overwhelmingly Chinese, so there could be public order issues, strikes, etc. if the colony/country was drawn into a conflict and the population had any sympathies for one side or the other.

If the United States is sympathetic to the British position it might be able to offer assistance through bases at Subic Bay, Philippines (with permission of the Philippine government) or through its own territory at Guam.

[deltaforce]

Here's a video of the scenario from the video game Wargame: Red Dragon:

[lordroel]

Mar 15, 2017 0:05:02 GMT deltaforce said:

Here's a video of the scenario from the video game Wargame: Red Dragon:

Nice game, also have it.

[1bigrich]

Dec 3, 2016 13:00:27 GMT stevep said:

  Anyway, what do people think might happen?

  Steve

I think the US arms pipleline to the ROC would be wide open.   There would be none of the 'defensive only' arms sales.   I could see the three Barbel class submarines sold to the Republic of China, and the ROC AF flying F-15s, up to the F-15E.   ROC AF F-16s would be in the process of being replaced by F-35As.   

The ROC Navy could procure Aegis equipped ships, maybe even new-build DDG-51s over several years, each purchase consisting of the current Flight of those ships.    I could also see Tomahawks sold to the ROC Navy for those VLS tubes.   

With less PRC economic power and influence, I could see one of more of the European builders of Submarines could supply the ROC Navy with modern submarines.

My initial thoughts,

[lordroel]

Feb 7, 2020 16:12:19 GMT 1bigrich said:

Dec 3, 2016 13:00:27 GMT stevep said:

  Anyway, what do people think might happen?

  Steve

I think the US arms pipleline to the ROC would be wide open.   There would be none of the 'defensive only' arms sales.   I could see the three Barbel class submarines sold to the Republic of China, and the ROC AF flying F-15s, up to the F-15E.   ROC AF F-16s would be in the process of being replaced by F-35As.   

The ROC Navy could procure Aegis equipped ships, maybe even new-build DDG-51s over several years, each purchase consisting of the current Flight of those ships.    I could also see Tomahawks sold to the ROC Navy for those VLS tubes.   

With less PRC economic power and influence, I could see one of more of the European builders of Submarines could supply the ROC Navy with modern submarines.

My initial thoughts,

Of course the Netherlands would be willing to sell more Hai Lung-class submarines if it knew it had the backing of the United States instead of mainland China pressuring the Dutch government to cancel the sub deal after only two subs.