James G
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Post by James G on Feb 20, 2018 18:37:34 GMT
Chapter Three – The End of Détente(32)Reagan won the Republican contest with Dole finishing far behind and Baker alarmingly close to him as far as the vice president was concerned. As to the Democratic race, it appeared that Chappaquiddick meant little here in Iowa: Kennedy won (just though) with Brown behind him then Mondale in third while Jackson trailed far back. To New Hampshire the candidates went with some elated, others depressed and a few confident that the voters in the North-East would be more open to them. If Reagan wins, the Soviet Union will have to face a much stronger president. You shall to wait and see on that one: not very long though.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 20, 2018 19:02:59 GMT
If Reagan wins, the Soviet Union will have to face a much stronger president. You shall to wait and see on that one: not very long though. Wait i will.
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 21, 2018 19:05:55 GMT
(34)
February 1980:
Marshal Ogarkov, the Soviet Army’s chief of the general staff, came to Iran in February. His aircraft was among those which came under mortar attack when on the tarmac less than half an hour after landing and while Ogarkov had already departed, he was well-aware of that attack on a supposedly secure airbase soon enough. The rebels were still active inside Iran, long after they were all meant to be disposed of. This visit wasn’t about the rebels though, those whom the KGB was meant to be dealing with via ‘trust’ operations and complicated psychological warfare means. Ogarkov came to Iran to visit those in military uniform undertaking a study of how the invasion had gone when it was made last November. The defence minister had commissioned a report and Ogarkov was meant to supervise that from afar though thought it best to pay a visit to Iran too. The study concerned how the invasion had gone from a military point of view. Up for discussion during his visit were the mobilisation and logistical difficulties faced as well as navigation problems by invading troops. There were successes looked at too though: those big airmobile operations and the amphibious landings on the shores of the Caspian Sea in the north & in the south around Bandar Abbas. Ogarkov enquired after the progress of the ongoing troop rotation now where the men and units involved in the invasion were being replaced by others who had been readied for their deployment to Iran after a harsh training regimen and were moving in. Those replacements were to remain in Iran and fight the guerrillas which had sprung up everywhere. As chief of the general staff, Ogarkov had been told late last year that the entry of Soviet troops into Iran was designed to overcome internal Iranian rebels. The Politburo had told him that they wanted that done quickly. They hadn’t expected then that four months later there would still be a large number of Soviet soldiers inside Iran: they had thought that the numbers would be heavily reduced by this point. Ogarkov had promised them nothing then nor did he now either. There appeared to have been a miscalculation there among the politicians. Ustinov was in the dog house with his colleagues over this and so too was Chebrikov; Andropov was displeased with them and therefore so too were the rest of the Politburo. Ogarkov had stayed out of that. The mortar attack was later followed by shootings and bombings which Ogarkov witnessed while in Iran. His focus was meant to be on the report on previous military operations with a design to look at what could be learnt from that for the future. While he was in the country though, Soviet troops under his command were dying when they weren’t supposed to be.
Saddam had rotated out the troops he had sent into Iran too. The professional Iraqi Army had been heavily-committed last year in crossing over the border. There had been much done well and a lot more done in a disastrous manner. Saddam had proclaimed victory anyway, had a big military parade in Baghdad but also one in the Iranian city of Ahvaz too: that being at the centre of Khuzestan Province. Those soldiers were replaced with the People’s Army. These paramilitaries were loyal to him, unlike the perceived shaky loyalty of the country’s military, though were officially part of the Ba’ath Party. They undertook internal security duties inside Iran like they did back across in Iraq yet inside Iran they came under determined attack. The Iraqis weren’t prepared for this. They suffered unsustainable losses… unsustainable for anyone but Saddam though. He kept sending in more ‘volunteers’ to fight and gave orders that battle was to be taken to the rebels rather than the People’s Army staying defensive. The paramilitaries were instructed to do the impossible and fight a war beyond their means with the result of a continuation of immense casualties taken. Saddam had no intention of pulling them out though, nor his intelligence and political operatives he had inside Iran as well. There were opportunities inside Iran that he still wanted to exploit, especially in what he deemed ‘rightful Iraqi regions’: those being neighbouring provinces such as Khuzestan where there were fellow Arabs but also other minorities there among the Persian inhabitants too. The Iraqi president had many grand ideas for these areas, the oil rich parts of Iran where there were Iraqi paramilitaries in particular, and no one was going to stop him from carrying them out. Tehran and Moscow were distracted, and so Saddam took advantage.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 21, 2018 19:07:29 GMT
(34)February 1980: Marshal Ogarkov, the Soviet Army’s chief of the general staff, came to Iran in February. His aircraft was among those which came under mortar attack when on the tarmac less than half an hour after landing Wonder what would happen if he had been killed
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 21, 2018 19:09:19 GMT
(34)February 1980: Marshal Ogarkov, the Soviet Army’s chief of the general staff, came to Iran in February. His aircraft was among those which came under mortar attack when on the tarmac less than half an hour after landing Wonder what would happen if he had been killed Erm... interesting idea. Ogarkov will learn a lot from his trip so, yes, that would change many things. Something to think about, I guess.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 21, 2018 19:14:46 GMT
(34)February 1980: Saddam had rotated out the troops he had sent into Iran too. The professional Iraqi Army You mean with the professional Iraqi Army the elite Republican Guard ore was it already that in 1979.
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 21, 2018 19:24:36 GMT
(34)February 1980: Saddam had rotated out the troops he had sent into Iran too. The professional Iraqi Army You mean with the professional Iraqi Army the elite Republican Guard ore was it already that in 1979. No, these guys: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popular_Army_(Iraq)Separate from the Iraqi Army and the Republican Guard.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 21, 2018 19:30:25 GMT
You mean with the professional Iraqi Army the elite Republican Guard ore was it already that in 1979. No, these guys: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popular_Army_(Iraq)Separate from the Iraqi Army and the Republican Guard. thanks for the link, they are lightly armed it looks like.
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 21, 2018 19:35:43 GMT
thanks for the link, they are lightly armed it looks like. Very lightly-armed. Not soldiers either. Saddam should have kept his troops there and let them soak up Iranian rebels attacks. He has ambitions on Iranian territory though and thinks that having 'loyal' people there, they will be achieved. This isn't a situation which will be resolved to his liking in the end.
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 21, 2018 21:13:04 GMT
(35)February 1980: Ted Kennedy and Ronald Reagan won in New Hampshire. They took first place in the (respective) Democratic and Republican primaries at the end of February. Within each contest, there was plenty of infighting among representatives of both parties when it came to support for their candidates with allegations of smears and others dirty tricks. Neither Kennedy nor Reagan were the choice of their party establishments for various reasons though it went beyond them personally elsewhere within the party races with other candidates. The 1980 New Hampshire primaries would be remembered long afterwards for the bitterness of the politics there. Kennedy’s margin of victory was cut from that in Iowa but a win was a win. The movement for Anyone But Kennedy failed. Mondale placed second, a strong second, with Brown in third and Scoop Jackson trailing yet Kennedy was out ahead. He had connected with the voters in New England. They listened to the liberal war-horse and cast their ballots for him. There was the Kennedy magic on show and his fellow candidates couldn’t match that. Mondale had a message of his own that wasn’t too different from Kennedy’s while Brown kept pushing a message of change: he had some rather outlandish ideas but a strong personal touch with some voters. Jackson was yet another liberal though he spoke much also of national security and anti-communism plus the need for a defence build-up too. Still, Kennedy stole the show with media attention on him while the other three fought among themselves over the nitty-gritty of specific policy positions. Their campaign staffs briefed against Kennedy too – ‘Chappaquiddick’ being the only word needed to be said – as attempts were made to stop him. It didn’t work though. What sold better to the public were the stories about Brown’s private life (his rock star, counter-culture girlfriend and his live-in, weird aide), allegations against Jackson taking bribes (for defence contracts from Boeing) and jokes at Mondale’s expense (outright fabrications about an affair where he still lacked the desire needed for that, a reference to 1976) in the face of a Kennedy. Within the Republican contest, Dole was favoured by much of the party higher-ups and if not him, then Baker: Anyone But Reagan wasn’t organised but the feeling was there. There was still hostility left over from ’76 with Reagan where he had challenged Ford and upset many within their party. Regan had what Dole and Baker didn’t have though: a connection with voters. He wasn’t a Kennedy, yes, but he had more personality as far as ordinary people and the media were concerned than the vice president and the Senate minority leader. Dole’s staff were accused of playing dirty tricks by spreading lies about Reagan though also Baker too. Reagan left surrogates to attack Dole by tying him to Ford the Failure while he himself tried to stay aloft. Poor Baker was left near ignored. When the results came, Baker was far behind Dole and Reagan and an afterthought it seemed. That was at the time though. It was Baker who had raised the issue during the New Hampshire primary of a return of the US military draft. He mis-sold the idea and his words were twisted then forgotten for the time being. Baker hadn’t been calling for immediate conscription of America’s youth, just that there should be the infrastructure in terms of a national register for males fit for military service. Post-Vietnam, that had been done away with following the political impact of the draft then. With what Baker called Soviet international aggression, something that Reagan had been speaking about too – allowed by Ford the Fool… with Dole at his side –, the idea of a national register seemed the most prudent thing to do. Well, it didn’t work out as Baker tried to make it an issue. There was hostility to that idea and Baker’s idea was trashed from Reagan when Dole spoke in support of it; over in the Democratic camp, Kennedy and Brown were opposed to that with Mondale uncommitted and Jackson all for it. After New Hampshire, Baker’s idea here wouldn’t come up again in the campaign in a major manner. Years later it would though. Days before the announcement of the winners and losers in New Hampshire, across in upstate New York there had been the ‘Miracle on Ice’. The US men’s ice hockey team had won a famous victory against the Soviet team (they won the gold medal later and the game against the Soviets wasn’t shown live; two later misconceptions in the cultural phenomenon which was that victory). The 1980 Winter Olympics were being held in Lake Placid and the surrounding area, and Ford had been there to open them. He hadn’t attended that game though, nor had the presidential candidates with so much else going on. After the victory where American amateurs beat Soviet professionals in true underdog fashion, there was a lot of national pride. Those who didn’t follow ice hockey nor Olympic sports were suddenly interested. The presidential candidates all had something to say too. It made a lot of people feel good, sticking it to the Soviet Union like that. It came against a background of a country that many said was demoralised: was the American dream over? The United States was still suffered from economic malaise with high fuel prices and uncomfortable inflation. There was a distrust of big government post-Watergate; now there were continuing allegations about American involvement in Central America’s dirty wars that wouldn’t stop. The US military was seen as weak along with the country’s role in the world fading when faced with a seemingly dominant Soviet Union on the ascendancy with its powerful armed forces that had just swept across the Middle East. Many latched onto the Miracle on Ice, others to what different politicians running for president were saying about their vision of a future for America. When I wrote V1 of this story, Dan mentioned the Miracle on Ice and I didn't use it. I have now and I thank him.
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Dan
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Post by Dan on Feb 21, 2018 21:59:15 GMT
Funnily enough, by coincidence today in the Olympic Ice Hockey, Czech republic beat USA 3-2 to put them out of the Olympics. The Czechs now face Russia in the first Semi Final...
It's interesting as due to the NHL refusing to release players for Olympic duties, (for any nation, not just America), the team is once again drawn from the minor leagues and colleges. The impact on Americans, after the disasters of the 1970's and the loss of prestige, to get that win over the Soviets, really was a huge deal, it was about the first "win" over the Soviets for about anything in some time.
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 21, 2018 22:36:46 GMT
I love odd coincidences like that. I know in OTL the game was important but not that important. Here, as you say, it plays into the background hopefully working.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 22, 2018 4:38:39 GMT
(35)Dole was favoured by much of the party higher-ups and if not him, then Baker: Anyone But Reagan wasn’t organised but the feeling was there So it will be Dole versus Reagan in the Republican race to get a presidential nominee.
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 22, 2018 8:00:11 GMT
(35)Dole was favoured by much of the party higher-ups and if not him, then Baker: Anyone But Reagan wasn’t organised but the feeling was there So it will be Dole versus Reagan in the Republican race to get a presidential nominee. Yep. As vice president Dole has some advantages but... it's Reagan's to lose.
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Feb 22, 2018 9:19:11 GMT
I have only just caught up, and really like how this story is going so far. I'm not much of an expert on Iran and the like, but it seems like you are building up a spectacular powderkeg.
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