James G
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Post by James G on Nov 29, 2018 22:04:21 GMT
James Since it was already in the EEC and also another NATO defector I would have assumed it was already a member of the EDA? IIRC when the attack on Sweden occurred I thought you mentioned their troops already being in Denmark?
Surprised that the EDA have done such a big change in policy as the main motive for them to do anything, a possible allied collapse that would put them in danger, seems to have disappeared. Also strange that they actually catch the Soviets on the hop. Agree that the war will inevitable escalate although if it does the EDA are heavily outclassed in chemical and nuclear terms. Given they want a strong EDA area to loot after the war - although that looks increasingly unlikely given the way things are turning against them - plus the number of foes they already have I can understand them being a bit reluctant to have an open war with the EDA. Although now the EDA have gone on the offensive that looks increasingly unlikely to last.
The Soviets seems to over-estimate their purely military strength in Europe as they think they could win a conventional war, at least compared to your estimation of the current strengths. Which could be just another delusion their having. However a few more must be thinking of a need for change at the top.
When full scale war comes in central Europe its likely to be bloody.
I doubt the Czechs would be helping garrison E Germany as they border W Germany themselves so their probably looking to their own borders.
With the probably defeat of the remains of their Med fleet by the fresh EDA forces what is the likelihood that a Soviet commander will go nuclear at sea? After all they used nukes against the Swedes so in extremist its far more likely in the Med now.
Steve
Yes... back in January, the French and Italians moved into Denmark when the French and WGs moved into Sweden. So they are still here come February. Denmark and Sweden joined the EDA when it was set up. I was here recalling events from before to show the progression, not adding anything new on that front. Mitterrand has decided to act and arm-twisted the others into action, though with limited action. The whole continent is about to see war. Oh, when I mentioned the Czechoslovaks I meant above their own nation not directly inside East Germany but facing West Germany. There is a good chance that there could be the use of nuclear weapons at sea, yes. |
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Post by lukedalton on Nov 29, 2018 22:09:08 GMT
The goverment of the various communist european nations will be beyond scared, the bulk of the French arsenal can't reach the URSS but is perfectly capable of hitting them and while they will be trying to control information, too many people will hear the radio and television program from West Europe and quickly the panic will spread even to them...not in the form of mass protest, this is sure, but at least i expect a lot of people not going to work and remain with their families in the case the worst happen.
Worst case scenario for the Warsaw Pact is that the news of the possible conflict in Central Europe, added with the current tension due to the war deprivation and request for 'volunteers' will start a series of civil disturbance in a many places that will slow the military effort.
Hell, just in Poland the locals will be probably do the minimum possible allowed to help the Soviet effort
Well, EDA forces has been lucky, hitting the soviet forces in Sweden just before they were ready to launch their own attack, mean that they were mostly in the open and so vulnerable; we can also assume that the western Med now don't have much soviet presence with the current attack on Malta at the surving comblock forces
Also Jugoslavia and Austria will start to mobilize and prepare to war, the first will go in full people war phase and prepare to be invaded by someone and the second know perfectely that in case of invasion of West Germany their official neutrality will be not worth the ink used in the treaty, so i expect that in the previous months some kind of a hoc agreement/understanding for this specific scenario had been signed or at least unofficially reached between the EDA and Wien
The British idea, look really like a 'cunning plan' out of the mind of Boldrick...as really what can possibly go wrong and explode right in the face? Better that the US want nothing to do with that.
A last question, not considering the Force de Frappe, how many nuclear device have the various EDA nations? There were the Nuclear sharing program of NATO and the various nations of Western Europe will have tried 'discretely' to keep someone of them as assurance (even if i expect that there were needed sometime to make them operative without the US key/code) and nation like Italy can create a nuclear weapon in 6 months, at least in theory.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 29, 2018 23:02:32 GMT
The goverment of the various communist european nations will be beyond scared, the bulk of the French arsenal can't reach the URSS but is perfectly capable of hitting them and while they will be trying to control information, too many people will hear the radio and television program from West Europe and quickly the panic will spread even to them...not in the form of mass protest, this is sure, but at least i expect a lot of people not going to work and remain with their families in the case the worst happen. Worst case scenario for the Warsaw Pact is that the news of the possible conflict in Central Europe, added with the current tension due to the war deprivation and request for 'volunteers' will start a series of civil disturbance in a many places that will slow the military effort. Hell, just in Poland the locals will be probably do the minimum possible allowed to help the Soviet effort Well, EDA forces has been lucky, hitting the soviet forces in Sweden just before they were ready to launch their own attack, mean that they were mostly in the open and so vulnerable; we can also assume that the western Med now don't have much soviet presence with the current attack on Malta at the surving comblock forces Also Jugoslavia and Austria will start to mobilize and prepare to war, the first will go in full people war phase and prepare to be invaded by someone and the second know perfectely that in case of invasion of West Germany their official neutrality will be not worth the ink used in the treaty, so i expect that in the previous months some kind of a hoc agreement/understanding for this specific scenario had been signed or at least unofficially reached between the EDA and Wien The British idea, look really like a 'cunning plan' out of the mind of Boldrick...as really what can possibly go wrong and explode right in the face? Better that the US want nothing to do with that. A last question, not considering the Force de Frappe, how many nuclear device have the various EDA nations? There were the Nuclear sharing program of NATO and the various nations of Western Europe will have tried 'discretely' to keep someone of them as assurance (even if i expect that there were needed sometime to make them operative without the US key/code) and nation like Italy can create a nuclear weapon in 6 months, at least in theory.
I would say only the French nukes would be available. Given the messy divorce when the EDA deserted NATO and the sheer political importance of nuclear weapons I can't see either the US or Britain leaving any nukes behind. After all it raised too many political and other issues if 'your' weapons are used by a 3rd party when you have no control over them.
There is likely to be concern in some of eastern Europe, especially in the party leaderships as they would be the people in the know about how overstretched the WP are becoming. Doubt it will be as much as in the more open countries of the EDA as the sudden 180 turn will be raising questions of potential nuclear and chemical threat, as well as a conventional one in W Germany and Denmark. Poland are likely to be the biggest problem for the WP depending on how much the opposition has been crushed there and how broadly the reports of a EDA/German attack is accepted by the population.
Austria would be wise to prepare to be attacked but it would be foolish for either side to actually attack it. It does nothing for the Soviets other than add another opponent and allow Italy to support W Germany a lot easier in ground and air units. There might be a problem of EDA air intrusions, probably including crossing Austria air space to move between the Med and German theatres but that would be it.
The plan was simplistic, which would fit in with the government and probably very little could go wrong as a result, other than losses the RAF probably couldn't afford but given that the US were right in detecting the EDA was going to become offensive it would have been a waste of scarce resources so probably better not done for that purpose alone.
Yes the Soviet remnant forces in the Med are pretty much doomed, at least unless they use nukes to prevent total disaster, which is a definite possibility.
Hitting the Soviets just before their attacking themselves might catch them a little but does also mean their tooled up for action themselves, rather than probably fairly relaxed thinking the cease-fire in Sweden will still largely hold so I suspect its not going to be as big an advantage as you think.
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Post by lukedalton on Nov 30, 2018 0:47:45 GMT
The goverment of the various communist european nations will be beyond scared, the bulk of the French arsenal can't reach the URSS but is perfectly capable of hitting them and while they will be trying to control information, too many people will hear the radio and television program from West Europe and quickly the panic will spread even to them...not in the form of mass protest, this is sure, but at least i expect a lot of people not going to work and remain with their families in the case the worst happen. Worst case scenario for the Warsaw Pact is that the news of the possible conflict in Central Europe, added with the current tension due to the war deprivation and request for 'volunteers' will start a series of civil disturbance in a many places that will slow the military effort. Hell, just in Poland the locals will be probably do the minimum possible allowed to help the Soviet effort Well, EDA forces has been lucky, hitting the soviet forces in Sweden just before they were ready to launch their own attack, mean that they were mostly in the open and so vulnerable; we can also assume that the western Med now don't have much soviet presence with the current attack on Malta at the surving comblock forces Also Jugoslavia and Austria will start to mobilize and prepare to war, the first will go in full people war phase and prepare to be invaded by someone and the second know perfectely that in case of invasion of West Germany their official neutrality will be not worth the ink used in the treaty, so i expect that in the previous months some kind of a hoc agreement/understanding for this specific scenario had been signed or at least unofficially reached between the EDA and Wien The British idea, look really like a 'cunning plan' out of the mind of Boldrick...as really what can possibly go wrong and explode right in the face? Better that the US want nothing to do with that. A last question, not considering the Force de Frappe, how many nuclear device have the various EDA nations? There were the Nuclear sharing program of NATO and the various nations of Western Europe will have tried 'discretely' to keep someone of them as assurance (even if i expect that there were needed sometime to make them operative without the US key/code) and nation like Italy can create a nuclear weapon in 6 months, at least in theory.
I would say only the French nukes would be available. Given the messy divorce when the EDA deserted NATO and the sheer political importance of nuclear weapons I can't see either the US or Britain leaving any nukes behind. After all it raised too many political and other issues if 'your' weapons are used by a 3rd party when you have no control over them.
There is likely to be concern in some of eastern Europe, especially in the party leaderships as they would be the people in the know about how overstretched the WP are becoming. Doubt it will be as much as in the more open countries of the EDA as the sudden 180 turn will be raising questions of potential nuclear and chemical threat, as well as a conventional one in W Germany and Denmark. Poland are likely to be the biggest problem for the WP depending on how much the opposition has been crushed there and how broadly the reports of a EDA/German attack is accepted by the population.
Austria would be wise to prepare to be attacked but it would be foolish for either side to actually attack it. It does nothing for the Soviets other than add another opponent and allow Italy to support W Germany a lot easier in ground and air units. There might be a problem of EDA air intrusions, probably including crossing Austria air space to move between the Med and German theatres but that would be it.
The plan was simplistic, which would fit in with the government and probably very little could go wrong as a result, other than losses the RAF probably couldn't afford but given that the US were right in detecting the EDA was going to become offensive it would have been a waste of scarce resources so probably better not done for that purpose alone.
Yes the Soviet remnant forces in the Med are pretty much doomed, at least unless they use nukes to prevent total disaster, which is a definite possibility.
Hitting the Soviets just before their attacking themselves might catch them a little but does also mean their tooled up for action themselves, rather than probably fairly relaxed thinking the cease-fire in Sweden will still largely hold so I suspect its not going to be as big an advantage as you think.
Remembering this en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_United_States_Air_Force_nuclear_weapons_incident and taking in consideration that all was done very quickly and in time of war the possibility that not everything has been taken back is very high, plus the transport will be a big security risk...and no, the divorce has not been messy, for all the pratical part has been pretty much consensual, trust me i have seen messy divorce and this has been pretty civil.
Austria invasion or at least attack IRC was on day one for the published Soviet plan and i believe that was more or less an open secret, maybe with the current level of force things will be different as they don't want overextend...but there also the factor that once you had the rest of W. Europe at your list of activ front, add also Austria make little difference.
They have been catched 3 hours before their own attack and so probably in the middle of preparing aircraft and other vehicles, so yes tooled for action...but i suspect the wrong action, with enphasis of bomb and maybe supplementary tank while some more air to air package will be needed. In any case, if taken by surprise the air attack during this moment can also eliminate the ground crew making the air war effort even more complicated. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Nov 30, 2018 8:28:21 GMT
(297)February 1985: Europe Coming across the North Atlantic early in February to visit the European countries of the Allies was a high-level American diplomatic and political delegation. They started their visit in Britain before moving on first to Ireland, next to Norway, afterwards to Spain and finally to Portugal. This was no jolly. Serious business was done. Vice President Baker and Defence Secretary Robb had recently been to the Atlantic-facing countries of Europe involved in this war individually for flying visits though the February delegation sought to spend some time in each nation. There remained no indication of how long the war would last and whether it would continue in its current form or take a dramatic turn in their favour or against them. Much diplomacy was being undertaken along with significant economic work too. Heading up the American party which arrived at RAF Lyneham – on two aircraft, not one – were the Secretaries of State & Treasury. Adlai Stevenson III and Hugh Carey were both men appointed to their high-level positions back in September following the nuclear assassinations of their predecessors Mondale and Bayh at Andrews AFB. Behind closed doors, several senior European politicians thought little of both men and had more faith in President Glenn, Baker and Robb rather than these two. The British Government didn’t have much time for Carey’s pre-war behaviour (when he was New York Governor) in supporting Kennedy’s actions taken towards Northern Ireland. Meanwhile, there was concern in London, as well as in Madrid too, when it came to the lack of diplomatic skills in the part of Stevenson in convincing further countries to join the war on the Allied side alongside his hard-line approach towards many neutrals where they were either threatened or alienated by American actions: the gas attack late last year on West African countries had been a particular source of objection. Those opinions were kept private though. These were Glenn’s appointees and the Americans were VIP guests. They were treated correctly throughout their visit, starting back on the flight-line at Lyneham. A plethora of junior officials, staff & advisers and security personnel travelled with the pair of Cabinet secretaries but there were also elected politicians which came too. Three senators and two congressmen made the journey: among them one of Massachusetts’ members of the Senate and a member of the House of Representatives from Arizona. John Kerry and John McCain would both each later serve as presidents of their country (their terms separated by another president in between) though that was many long years off. For now, each remained members of the reformed Congress with important committee roles within. They came with the VIPs and travelled extensively within each country which they visited as official guests. Previous violence across Britain in recent months had cooled off somewhat and no major riots where deaths were seen occurred during February yet their trip itinerary took them nowhere near such places where there had been all that violence before anyway. Kerry and McCain both saw the ruins of Whitehall; they also witnessed the British Army exercising on the Salisbury Plain. There were meetings, briefings and tours given. Neither man though was at a meeting which took place at Chequers in Buckinghamshire which Stevenson (Carey wasn’t there either) attended along with much of the British War Cabinet. The Secretary of State was informed of something called Operation Purloin. He was assured that it was nothing more than a contingency, something that a reasonable and responsible government would plan for just to be sure. He directly and firmly told them that Purloin wouldn’t fly with Glenn nor any part of the US Government. One of his advisers would whisper to him that instead of Purloin, the British should have named it ‘Perfidious Albion’. What was Purloin? Purloin was just a plan to bring about the involvement of Western Europe and their mutual defence organisation – the EDA – in the wider war. This could be done by the RAF and the Royal Navy making attacks against Soviet forces who were occupying that small strip of land in mainland Sweden. These attacks would very likely ignite the whole situation there leading to the Soviets lashing out everywhere against everyone despite it being known that it was British action. Once they did so, Western Europe would be at war. It was stressed to Stevenson that this was just a contingency but he didn’t believe that. They told him that it was being considered to be put into action only if Britain was further imperilled than it already was and the EDA looked certain to remain neutral in this war. Stevenson was certain this was being floated as an idea where Britain was seeking American support for them to do it soon, not later. He told his hosts that this wouldn’t fly. Moreover, he also assured them that it was highly likely that the situation on the ground in Sweden was about to explode any time soon regardless. At the end of the Chequers meeting, it was again said to Stevenson that Purloin was only a contingency – that was repeated and repeated – so he repeated himself too: his country just wouldn’t stand for that. It was just wrong and couldn’t be done. Sweden will explode at any moment, he said again. He was correct on that. Stevenson, Carey, Kerry and McCain would all be in Portugal by then, far away from where a whole new chapter of the Third World War began. No official ceasefire nor any sort of progress towards a diplomatic settlement had occurred in Sweden. The heaviest of fighting had quickly come to an end once Soviet forces had driven an occupation zone along the eastern shoreline of the Øresund and dug-in. They continued to exchange shots with the Swedes on the ground and there remained clashes both at sea and in the skies. However, the advance to gobble up Swedish soil had ceased and so too had major attacks against the rest of the country. From out of Malmo, the Soviets didn’t interfere when the International Red Cross arranged for the departure of several convoys of injured children from that city’s hospitals. No games were played, and the fleet of vehicles and ambulances went right across Soviet-occupied territory unmolested. A later similar evacuation of children from hospitals occurred from out of Helsingborg too: again, one which the Soviets allowed to take place without causing any problems for political gain. The occupation over what little Swedish territory was in their hands wasn’t that harsh. Yes, it was enforced with violence yet still very much restrained compared to Soviet actions elsewhere in the world. Moscow declared that it had a security zone inside Sweden and stated that the two countries weren’t at war. The Soviets were satisfied that they had humbled and beaten a defiant Sweden and their overall aim to open up the Baltic Exits had been achieved where they had got their fleet out into open waters… though little use that did them in the end after the British and Norwegians had done all they then had. Moscow was taken completely by surprise when Western Europe formed the EDA with their Maastricht Treaty and then went and brought Denmark and Sweden into that alliance. They were still reeling from the shock of such a diplomatic turn of events, and trying to figure out their intelligence failure to foresee that, when the news came that the EDA put military units into both Scandinavian countries. French and Italian forces moved into Denmark; France and West Germany put others into Sweden. None of that was supposed to happen. But it did and it blew all Soviet plans for Scandinavia right out of the water. Across southern Sweden, the Swedes moved their mobilised armed forces into position to surround what they saw as a Soviet bridgehead for a further, full-scale invasion. The Baltic island of Gotland, the wider Stockholm area and the Finnish border were all full of more Swedish forces too. There were lots of them and they wouldn’t be underestimated when fighting on their home soil. This time they wouldn’t be taken by surprise. As to the EDA, they moved troops and aircraft into mainland Sweden some distance away from where the Soviets were but into clearly an offensive position. Centred on Gothenburg, the French and West Germans spread themselves out through south-western Sweden and were supported by more of their forces over in Denmark. Without actively doing so, they had reclosed the Baltic Exits just by their presence on both sides of it. They also had warships and submarines in there while the Danes were supported by them in remining certain stretches of water, areas previously cleared by those underwater nuclear detonations. Throughout all of this, the Soviet leadership was undecided on how to act in respond. They were distracted by other events elsewhere yet the EDA action in the Baltic Exits was a slap in the face which remained stinging. War with Western Europe – France, Italy, West Germany and the Low Countries – hadn’t been sought. Despite all the setbacks, there had been the belief that Paris and its allies would come to their senses… just like the Americans and the Chinese eventually would too. All would understand that there was one superpower in this world and they all must accede to its will. Demands from Moscow, reasonable requests in fact, would be met with acceptance. That was how it was supposed to be. In a straight-up war, one without nuclear weapons, there was a confident prediction in Moscow that their tanks would overrun Western Europe if it came to that. The fight would be hard and the opponents no walkover, but this could be done. Such a thing wasn’t wanted though for political and economic reasons. A war like that would destroy all that the Soviet Union wanted to harness: the economic power of Western Europe. It would too unite all those countries which Moscow was intending to soon play off against each other once again, all to be Moscow’s favourite. The course of action which the Soviet leadership agreed was unacceptable was to do nothing in response. That was all that they could decide though, not how to respond. Retreating from Sweden, even with there being no longer a reason to be there, was now politically impossible. It put their military forces, who were engaged in daily low-level engagements with the Swedes, at risk of accidental conflict with those of the EDA. In Scandinavia, like on the North German Plain, Moscow was certain that its armed forces would win a conflict yet it would mean going all out there as well. That too wasn’t wanted. The resource sink that was the fight in North America, to say nothing of the China War, was a drain of unimaginable proportions. Both of those fights were seeing massive loss of life occur but also an expanse of treasure lost too. The Soviet Union always had the men to fight. It was the matter of everything else that those conflicts cost. To add Scandinavia and the rest of Western Europe to the list of wars to fight just wasn’t a choice that Moscow wanted to make. The decision to not accept what the EDA had done but at the same time not make a response was uncharacteristic for the Soviet Union. The paralysis over failing to take action here was something not done elsewhere. It caused alarm among outsiders, those who feared the unknown. What were the Soviets up to? What were they getting ready to do that was taking them so long to prepare for? This worry was among many. In southern Sweden, there remained shooting incidents. There were plenty of those. Swedish and Soviet forces engaged the other and lives were lost. The Swedes held their own yet there was an understanding that the Soviets were being remarkably restrained. Neither side backed away from any fight if shot at first and on a tactical level, those lower down the command chain fought like tigers when they had to. The decisions and indecisions of higher-ups wasn’t for them to ponder over. EDA troops were far away from the fight and their naval vessels were some distance back too. Their aircraft were a different matter. French Mirages and Luftwaffe F-4s were flying from Swedish airbases, the same stations from which the Swedes put Drakens and Viggens into the sky. The West Germans were under strict ROE (rules of engagement) and the French were too but theirs were a little more relaxed in certain circumstances. The first clash in the skies between EDA and Soviet forces came on February 23rd. Firing from distance, a Mirage-2000 shot down a Soviet MiG-23 which had just attacked a pair of Swedish fighters. Full knowledge of the exact circumstances took some time to be established, especially for the Soviets to understand that a French aircraft had shot down one of theirs instead of Swedish fighters being responsible. Moscow was at once informed of this with the expectation that they would immediately issue an order for a counterstrike. Instead, there came an order for increased readiness and a relaxation in self-defence rules. The commanding Soviet Air Force general interpreted these instructions at his own discretion (which he was certainly not meant to) and the next time French aircraft were deemed to be presenting a danger, they were attacked. A pair of MiG-25s put down another Mirage-2000 when it really wasn’t in a threatening position. This shooting incident occurred on the 25th. The next day saw several more aerial engagements. French and Soviet aircraft shot at each other and there was the drawing in of Swedish and West German aircraft into this. When flying at high speed over a small area, lines in the sky that the other side had decided – without informing you – are their red lines are kind of impossible to see. February 26th saw the French lose another two aircraft (a Mirage F-1 and a Jaguar) while three Soviet MiGs went down. The West Germans had a F-4 blown apart in mid-air too. The EDA and the Soviets were bringing down each other’s aircraft seemingly at will over Sweden. Exact details on individual events were hard to come by for politicians, men who demanded full knowledge of what was going on. They were told versions of events which weren’t true, even if the intent was there to tell the truth. Decisions were made. In Moscow, there finally came a decision on how to act against what Western Europe had done by moving into Scandinavia: they would be pushed out with full force used. This didn’t include a wider European war. The Soviet leadership remained convinced it was in control of events and so sought a limited conflict. As they had done to the Swedes, they would punish the EDA and eliminate them as a threat over Sweden and the Baltic Exits too. Soviet tanks weren’t about to go over the Iron Curtain and into West Germany. Moscow was going to fight a conflict – not a war – with one arm tied behind its back, all to stop things spiralling towards an end game they didn’t want. These decisions once again brought open remarks within the Defence Council as to the wisdom of this and even the suggestion that this wasn’t going to all go to plan. It was forced through by Vorotnikov though. Soviet intelligence failings continued. They completely missed Paris and Rome taking a decision of their own, one which they browbeat Bonn into as well. The EDA was going to strike itself – not just act in self-defence – through Scandinavia but also extend military action to the Mediterranean as well. West Germany was expected to face an invasion only if things got out of hand. If that occurred, it would be one opposed on the border, the western side of that and not over on the eastern side as there had been talk of trying to achieve. Bonn wouldn’t allow for a pre-emptive attack into East Germany and they were fully supported by Brussels and The Hague here. The Dutch and the Belgians, plus the Danes as well, had all had their arms twisted like the West Germans to get them into this at the behest of a rather-driven Mitterrand. In the early hours of the 27th, the EDA struck first. They were three hours ahead of the Soviets in attacking the other without a declaration of war. It was a conventional fight. Over Sweden, French and Swedish aircraft attacked the Soviet-held airbases at Angelholm and Ljungbyhed where the Soviets were getting ready to launch their own air attacks from. West German fighters weren’t involved in any offensive action though. On and above the Øresund, Danish and Italian air and naval forces went into action against the Soviets. They struck at them when the Soviets were moving forward ready to go into action too, just in a few hours time, but not yet. Malta was bombed by Italian Tornados flying from Sicily joined by French Navy aircraft flying from the aircraft carrier Clemenceau. The joint French-Italian fleet in the Mediterranean headed straight for Malta on the back of that with Italian marines with them. Soviet forces here were taken by surprise as well. Right down the centre of the divided Germany, between East and West, no border crossings were made. Above West Germany, the Luftwaffe was joined in flying defensive-only missions by the French, the Dutch and the Belgians. The Soviets, East Germans and Czechoslovaks put fighters into the sky above East Germany. Here the dividing lines were more pronounced than those above Sweden yet there were crossings of those made soon enough and missiles fired at other aircraft. Responses were made to the actions of others, real and imagined. In Moscow and Paris, neither side had intended for conflict to come here to Germany. There had been the belief that war would be fought elsewhere, away from where massed armies and air forces weren’t lined up against each other. Troops below them were readied to go into action as they all waiting for higher orders to do just that. Millions of civilians across Europe were all in the firing line. Two nuclear-armed powers were at war with each aiming to fight a limited conflict. Panic hit in Western Europe especially though the governments in Eastern Europe (who sought to keep control of information) were gravely concerned too. Their leaders deluded themselves that this would stay localised. It really wasn’t going to. Great update James G as usual, nice to see Western Europe going into the fight. |
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pjmidd
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Post by pjmidd on Nov 30, 2018 8:40:34 GMT
Given the numbers of troops they will have needed to deploy to China as well as North America and Scandinavia, the Soviet forces in Europe will have been stripped of quite a few of their best units and quite a bit more of their equipment and war stocks by now ( new stuff , still plenty of old ). Couple that with the WP forces that are not going to be very enthusiastic and disruption on the home front ( workers and logistics doing direct military stuff not supporting the economy ), the Soviet Bear is probably going to be a bit more of a paper tiger than expected.
Catching them just before an offensive means they will be concentrated and so more vulnerable to air attack. Changing plans on the fly was not a trait that the Soviets were good at so disruption will be extensive, units attacking without their support etc. Chances of escalation however are higher, Soviet plans all seemed to have tactical nukes and gas as a much earlier option. Now the WP Allies might take action to delay that ( its their territory that would be converted to Hell ) but that sets another ball rolling.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 30, 2018 10:07:39 GMT
I would say only the French nukes would be available. Given the messy divorce when the EDA deserted NATO and the sheer political importance of nuclear weapons I can't see either the US or Britain leaving any nukes behind. After all it raised too many political and other issues if 'your' weapons are used by a 3rd party when you have no control over them.
There is likely to be concern in some of eastern Europe, especially in the party leaderships as they would be the people in the know about how overstretched the WP are becoming. Doubt it will be as much as in the more open countries of the EDA as the sudden 180 turn will be raising questions of potential nuclear and chemical threat, as well as a conventional one in W Germany and Denmark. Poland are likely to be the biggest problem for the WP depending on how much the opposition has been crushed there and how broadly the reports of a EDA/German attack is accepted by the population.
Austria would be wise to prepare to be attacked but it would be foolish for either side to actually attack it. It does nothing for the Soviets other than add another opponent and allow Italy to support W Germany a lot easier in ground and air units. There might be a problem of EDA air intrusions, probably including crossing Austria air space to move between the Med and German theatres but that would be it.
The plan was simplistic, which would fit in with the government and probably very little could go wrong as a result, other than losses the RAF probably couldn't afford but given that the US were right in detecting the EDA was going to become offensive it would have been a waste of scarce resources so probably better not done for that purpose alone.
Yes the Soviet remnant forces in the Med are pretty much doomed, at least unless they use nukes to prevent total disaster, which is a definite possibility.
Hitting the Soviets just before their attacking themselves might catch them a little but does also mean their tooled up for action themselves, rather than probably fairly relaxed thinking the cease-fire in Sweden will still largely hold so I suspect its not going to be as big an advantage as you think.
Remembering this en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_United_States_Air_Force_nuclear_weapons_incident and taking in consideration that all was done very quickly and in time of war the possibility that not everything has been taken back is very high, plus the transport will be a big security risk... and no, the divorce has not been messy, for all the pratical part has been pretty much consensual, trust me i have seen messy divorce and this has been pretty civil.
Austria invasion or at least attack IRC was on day one for the published Soviet plan and i believe that was more or less an open secret, maybe with the current level of force things will be different as they don't want overextend...but there also the factor that once you had the rest of W. Europe at your list of activ front, add also Austria make little difference.
They have been catched 3 hours before their own attack and so probably in the middle of preparing aircraft and other vehicles, so yes tooled for action...but i suspect the wrong action, with enphasis of bomb and maybe supplementary tank while some more air to air package will be needed. In any case, if taken by surprise the air attack during this moment can also eliminate the ground crew making the air war effort even more complicated.
Definitely messy in that the EDA ducked out of their treaty commitments and left allies hanging just when support from them was needed. "We know we're committed by treaty to help you when your attacked but stuff that we don't want to fight so your on our own". Also would the US in a crisis want to control all its nukes or leave them in the hands of a 3rd party that has just left them in the lurch? The EDA probably managed to take over a number of NATO bases and some facilities there but I would expect that everything of direct military nature and most especially nukes would be withdrawn. - Even if a few were left behind and the EDA can work out how to use them they will be massively outnumbered by the WP in this category.
Italy may possibly be able to build a rudimentary nuclear device in ~ 6 months, although this would have broken a number of international agreements and would need a big and controversial effort right from when they deserted NATO. It would however be untested, as would the interaction with the delivery system and available in very small numbers.
As I pointed out there is no reason for the Soviets to attack Austria in this scenario, being on the defensive with markedly reduced forces compared to OTL, even again the less powerful EDA, compared to NATO forces, attacker. The only force with an interest in attacking Austria would be the EDA to enable a link up with Italy but I doubt that would occur.
Could be right if its only 3 hours before the Soviet attack, although they will still be preparing and the EDA have again been very lucky.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 30, 2018 10:17:35 GMT
Given the numbers of troops they will have needed to deploy to China as well as North America and Scandinavia, the Soviet forces in Europe will have been stripped of quite a few of their best units and quite a bit more of their equipment and war stocks by now ( new stuff , still plenty of old ). Couple that with the WP forces that are not going to be very enthusiastic and disruption on the home front ( workers and logistics doing direct military stuff not supporting the economy ), the Soviet Bear is probably going to be a bit more of a paper tiger than expected. Catching them just before an offensive means they will be concentrated and so more vulnerable to air attack. Changing plans on the fly was not a trait that the Soviets were good at so disruption will be extensive, units attacking without their support etc. Chances of escalation however are higher, Soviet plans all seemed to have tactical nukes and gas as a much earlier option. Now the WP Allies might take action to delay that ( its their territory that would be converted to Hell ) but that sets another ball rolling.
Not sure about this as it would be the EDA territory that would be hit in the event of a Soviet decision to use tactical nukes. I was thinking before James made clear in the last chapter it was only air and naval attacks outside Sweden that a number of strikes on EDA main air bases would not only seriously weaken the latter's air power but also send a serious warning message, especially to W Germany and the Netherlands as their the ones likely to be hit, that could have them getting very cold feet about a shooting war.
Agree that with the forces wasted in being sent to China and the mismanagement of the Soviet war effort the EDA might have a good chance in a purely conventional conflict, but that's a reason why the Soviets are likely to play to their strengths, i.e. chemical and tac nuke, but avoid hitting France for the moment.
Agree that the Soviets are unlikely to respond well to being caught by surprise. Doubt it will be as bad as in 41 but could seriously hamper them for a while.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 30, 2018 10:24:50 GMT
James
In the last chapter you said
By Scandinavia and the Baltic Exits did you mean just Sweden or Denmark as well? Given that the Swedes and NATO have pretty much cleared out the Baltic fleet any such attack must really come by land via Finland and for Denmark really via northern W Germany. Unless the Soviets are thinking what forces they have in their small and relatively isolated lodgement in S Sweden is enough to do it on its own in which case their really in cloud cookcoo land.
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on Nov 30, 2018 10:50:16 GMT
So, the mess becomes even worse. As was to be expected given the Soviet government. If the war goes broader, I'm quite sure that they'll attack Austria, if only because they believe that the Austrians will join the war against them as well. And they might also become very angry with Yugoslavia for refusing to kowtow.
Incidentally, the Soviets really don't have many possible fronts for new wars left over here.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 30, 2018 12:20:17 GMT
So, the mess becomes even worse. As was to be expected given the Soviet government. If the war goes broader, I'm quite sure that they'll attack Austria, if only because they believe that the Austrians will join the war against them as well. And they might also become very angry with Yugoslavia for refusing to kowtow. Incidentally, the Soviets really don't have many possible fronts for new wars left over here.
Well there's still most of Africa, S America, India, their 'allies' in the ME - although their working on that by deposing Gadaffi. Plenty of choices for additional opponents to create. 
Seriously I can see a change in the leader pretty soon and then its either double up, which could be very nasty for everybody or look for a way out. The latter would be the most likely and its still quite likely to see the USSR and WP surviving territoriality at least for a while yet. Although its likely to be weakened, possibly even more than the western powers, although not as much as the Chinese.
The Soviet empire is likely to fall a bit earlier TTL, as its lost a lot in terms of prestige and manpower but hopefully it won't be more violent than OTL.
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Post by lukedalton on Nov 30, 2018 14:23:18 GMT
Remembering this en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_United_States_Air_Force_nuclear_weapons_incident and taking in consideration that all was done very quickly and in time of war the possibility that not everything has been taken back is very high, plus the transport will be a big security risk... and no, the divorce has not been messy, for all the pratical part has been pretty much consensual, trust me i have seen messy divorce and this has been pretty civil.
Austria invasion or at least attack IRC was on day one for the published Soviet plan and i believe that was more or less an open secret, maybe with the current level of force things will be different as they don't want overextend...but there also the factor that once you had the rest of W. Europe at your list of activ front, add also Austria make little difference.
They have been catched 3 hours before their own attack and so probably in the middle of preparing aircraft and other vehicles, so yes tooled for action...but i suspect the wrong action, with enphasis of bomb and maybe supplementary tank while some more air to air package will be needed. In any case, if taken by surprise the air attack during this moment can also eliminate the ground crew making the air war effort even more complicated.
Definitely messy in that the EDA ducked out of their treaty commitments and left allies hanging just when support from them was needed. "We know we're committed by treaty to help you when your attacked but stuff that we don't want to fight so your on our own". Also would the US in a crisis want to control all its nukes or leave them in the hands of a 3rd party that has just left them in the lurch? The EDA probably managed to take over a number of NATO bases and some facilities there but I would expect that everything of direct military nature and most especially nukes would be withdrawn. - Even if a few were left behind and the EDA can work out how to use them they will be massively outnumbered by the WP in this category.
Italy may possibly be able to build a rudimentary nuclear device in ~ 6 months, although this would have broken a number of international agreements and would need a big and controversial effort right from when they deserted NATO. It would however be untested, as would the interaction with the delivery system and available in very small numbers.
As I pointed out there is no reason for the Soviets to attack Austria in this scenario, being on the defensive with markedly reduced forces compared to OTL, even again the less powerful EDA, compared to NATO forces, attacker. The only force with an interest in attacking Austria would be the EDA to enable a link up with Italy but I doubt that would occur.
Could be right if its only 3 hours before the Soviet attack, although they will still be preparing and the EDA have again been very lucky.
No, no, the 'divorce' has been pretty civil, trust me...you want messy? Image Europe going true neutral and intern the American-canadian-british troops, or not helping them depart or not give any type of help or let the Berlin troops there or signing the treaty with the Soviet that will be messy, this is the stage Friends with benefits. Want the US leave the nuke behind? No, absolutely, but taking in consideretion three factor there is the strong possibility that some will be left in Europe regardless
1- Human error, the effort will be massive and even in normal time accidents happen and at the time there were a lot of warhead 2- The evacuation has been done in an hurry due to the need of war 3- The warhead while under american surveillance were stored in the host nation facilities. Btw IRC James told that while the US wanted take back everything, they had not done that due to how quick they have needed to go back home...frankly unlike the old time wisdom you can't have a thing done quick and well. Never said that the weapon will create a radical change of the balance of power, only that they will be possibly added to the European arsenal...making the eastern europe goverment much more nervous; as a dozen of MK-61 gravity bomb will have them as target.
Regarding the EDA stance, no it's not a sudden 180 degree turn that will leave everybody flaberglasted, has been more a steady and increased worsening of the relationships between the two side from the start of the war with the Moscow leaderships willingly deciding to not see it this was and deluding themselfs that all will go well.
WWIII had started, chemical and nuclear weapons has been used, China and N. AMerica invaded...we have already passed the big and controversial effort stage and btw we already had a nuclear program that was shutted down 10 years before the war and for the delivery system, yes we have even that and much of the know how was reversed in the civilian sector, but frankly i expect more gravity bomb for Tornado at this stage than a missile capable of reach Moscow as originally planned and succesfully tested. Getting some crash and discrete program due to the situation (expecially if the French help) will be much less problematic than before the war and regarding the broken international agreements, well as you many and many and many and many and many times said the European nations had bowed out from their NATO agreement, so one more is not that problematic...plus as the original NATO nuclear sharing program was created to get around the Nuclear non proliferation Treaty, somekind of diplomatic cop out can be found to at least create a fig leaf for it.
Regarding Austria, the RL plan of the Warsaw Pact included an attack through Austria after nuking their capital, while they have reduced forces...changes plan is more difficult and Moscow can also try to put pressure on Austria to let her troops use her territory as a passage to reach Italy and South Germany (and the same can happen to Jugoslavia at least theoretically) as she as done with Finland. Honestly i doubt that if the war in Central Europe start will not expand to the neighbouring nations and i doubt that people in Wien will not know it.
Not more lucky than the Soviets in the beginning of the war or in the years before, happen.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 30, 2018 16:33:34 GMT
Definitely messy in that the EDA ducked out of their treaty commitments and left allies hanging just when support from them was needed. "We know we're committed by treaty to help you when your attacked but stuff that we don't want to fight so your on our own". Also would the US in a crisis want to control all its nukes or leave them in the hands of a 3rd party that has just left them in the lurch? The EDA probably managed to take over a number of NATO bases and some facilities there but I would expect that everything of direct military nature and most especially nukes would be withdrawn. - Even if a few were left behind and the EDA can work out how to use them they will be massively outnumbered by the WP in this category.
Italy may possibly be able to build a rudimentary nuclear device in ~ 6 months, although this would have broken a number of international agreements and would need a big and controversial effort right from when they deserted NATO. It would however be untested, as would the interaction with the delivery system and available in very small numbers.
As I pointed out there is no reason for the Soviets to attack Austria in this scenario, being on the defensive with markedly reduced forces compared to OTL, even again the less powerful EDA, compared to NATO forces, attacker. The only force with an interest in attacking Austria would be the EDA to enable a link up with Italy but I doubt that would occur.
Could be right if its only 3 hours before the Soviet attack, although they will still be preparing and the EDA have again been very lucky.
No, no, the 'divorce' has been pretty civil, trust me...you want messy? Image Europe going true neutral and intern the American-canadian-british troops, or not helping them depart or not give any type of help or let the Berlin troops there or signing the treaty with the Soviet that will be messy, this is the stage Friends with benefits. Want the US leave the nuke behind? No, absolutely, but taking in consideretion three factor there is the strong possibility that some will be left in Europe regardless
1- Human error, the effort will be massive and even in normal time accidents happen and at the time there were a lot of warhead 2- The evacuation has been done in an hurry due to the need of war 3- The warhead while under american surveillance were stored in the host nation facilities. Btw IRC James told that while the US wanted take back everything, they had not done that due to how quick they have needed to go back home...frankly unlike the old time wisdom you can't have a thing done quick and well. Never said that the weapon will create a radical change of the balance of power, only that they will be possibly added to the European arsenal...making the eastern europe goverment much more nervous; as a dozen of MK-61 gravity bomb will have them as target.
Regarding the EDA stance, no it's not a sudden 180 degree turn that will leave everybody flaberglasted, has been more a steady and increased worsening of the relationships between the two side from the start of the war with the Moscow leaderships willingly deciding to not see it this was and deluding themselfs that all will go well.
WWIII had started, chemical and nuclear weapons has been used, China and N. AMerica invaded...we have already passed the big and controversial effort stage and btw we already had a nuclear program that was shutted down 10 years before the war and for the delivery system, yes we have even that and much of the know how was reversed in the civilian sector, but frankly i expect more gravity bomb for Tornado at this stage than a missile capable of reach Moscow as originally planned and succesfully tested. Getting some crash and discrete program due to the situation (expecially if the French help) will be much less problematic than before the war and regarding the broken international agreements, well as you many and many and many and many and many times said the European nations had bowed out from their NATO agreement, so one more is not that problematic...plus as the original NATO nuclear sharing program was created to get around the Nuclear non proliferation Treaty, somekind of diplomatic cop out can be found to at least create a fig leaf for it.
Regarding Austria, the RL plan of the Warsaw Pact included an attack through Austria after nuking their capital, while they have reduced forces...changes plan is more difficult and Moscow can also try to put pressure on Austria to let her troops use her territory as a passage to reach Italy and South Germany (and the same can happen to Jugoslavia at least theoretically) as she as done with Finland. Honestly i doubt that if the war in Central Europe start will not expand to the neighbouring nations and i doubt that people in Wien will not know it.
Not more lucky than the Soviets in the beginning of the war or in the years before, happen.
Well its civil compared to going to war with the allies, which is what trying to disarm and intern - or more accurately imprisoning the allied troops isolated by the sudden desertion would have been. However that would have been very extreme and pretty much insane by what became the EDA.
Well is a 180 in terms of their doing everything to avoid war, then suddenly intervening in Sweden for no clear reason. Since the immediate threat of the Soviets winning control of the N Sea had gone, the Soviets had stopped attacking the Swedes and the EDA could simply have done what they had been doing.
In RL the plans for an all-out attack on the west would in some cases have included attack Austria but plans can be changed and should be to fit new circumstances. In TTL, not only are Soviet aims totally different than OTL but their circumstances have changed drastically. As I say its no longer in the Soviets interest to attack Austria and its in their interest to keep it out of the war. As I say the bloc that would want access through Austria now is the EDA.
Well their been lucky in striking at just the right time, although this only applies to the relatively small Soviet forces in Sweden. Their also been lucky in that the allies did manage to defeat the Soviets before this point so they now have a chance to grab some successes but even what their done here in real life would probably result in a very strong Soviet reaction, including at least some nukes I would suspect. We have seen both the Soviets and the allies make a number of important mistakes, some of which should have been easily avoided. The most prominent Soviet one, other than launching such a made conflict in the 1st case, was getting bogged down in China for no reason at all and wasting so much resources there. The most recent big allied one was not stopping those two convoys to Texas which Glenn should have done.
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James G
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Post by James G on Nov 30, 2018 20:53:10 GMT
The goverment of the various communist european nations will be beyond scared, the bulk of the French arsenal can't reach the URSS but is perfectly capable of hitting them and while they will be trying to control information, too many people will hear the radio and television program from West Europe and quickly the panic will spread even to them...not in the form of mass protest, this is sure, but at least i expect a lot of people not going to work and remain with their families in the case the worst happen. Worst case scenario for the Warsaw Pact is that the news of the possible conflict in Central Europe, added with the current tension due to the war deprivation and request for 'volunteers' will start a series of civil disturbance in a many places that will slow the military effort. Hell, just in Poland the locals will be probably do the minimum possible allowed to help the Soviet effort Well, EDA forces has been lucky, hitting the soviet forces in Sweden just before they were ready to launch their own attack, mean that they were mostly in the open and so vulnerable; we can also assume that the western Med now don't have much soviet presence with the current attack on Malta at the surving comblock forces Also Jugoslavia and Austria will start to mobilize and prepare to war, the first will go in full people war phase and prepare to be invaded by someone and the second know perfectely that in case of invasion of West Germany their official neutrality will be not worth the ink used in the treaty, so i expect that in the previous months some kind of a hoc agreement/understanding for this specific scenario had been signed or at least unofficially reached between the EDA and Wien The British idea, look really like a 'cunning plan' out of the mind of Boldrick...as really what can possibly go wrong and explode right in the face? Better that the US want nothing to do with that. A last question, not considering the Force de Frappe, how many nuclear device have the various EDA nations? There were the Nuclear sharing program of NATO and the various nations of Western Europe will have tried 'discretely' to keep someone of them as assurance (even if i expect that there were needed sometime to make them operative without the US key/code) and nation like Italy can create a nuclear weapon in 6 months, at least in theory. That is a likely situation for Eastern Europe. The stage for much of that has already been set with West German news reports of East Germans in American talking. It can only get bigger there and with other propaganda efforts. The attacks in the Baltic were luckily timed and, yes, they hit them hard and when exposed. The Med is different. Malta is a garrison for Soviet aircraft and Libyan troops; there are Soviet ships and aircraft back further east. I have yet to decide on what will occur with Austria and Yugoslavia. Operation Baldrick... I like it! My thinking was that the Americans got all their nukes out. They were only shared for use, not ownership, and with American security forces around them. They are gone. Remember that Western Europe was cooperative with the US/UK pull-out last year. Maybe they had envious eyes, but those nukes went. Italy could have crash started a nuke programme: I'mnot sure if that will have happened here yet. France has nukes and chemicals too. Great update James G as usual, nice to see Western Europe going into the fight. Thank you. Well, yes, but not all Europeans will be happy at their governments. Panic, fear and terror will hit... and then there is sure to be all the wartime destruction. Given the numbers of troops they will have needed to deploy to China as well as North America and Scandinavia, the Soviet forces in Europe will have been stripped of quite a few of their best units and quite a bit more of their equipment and war stocks by now ( new stuff , still plenty of old ). Couple that with the WP forces that are not going to be very enthusiastic and disruption on the home front ( workers and logistics doing direct military stuff not supporting the economy ), the Soviet Bear is probably going to be a bit more of a paper tiger than expected. Catching them just before an offensive means they will be concentrated and so more vulnerable to air attack. Changing plans on the fly was not a trait that the Soviets were good at so disruption will be extensive, units attacking without their support etc. Chances of escalation however are higher, Soviet plans all seemed to have tactical nukes and gas as a much earlier option. Now the WP Allies might take action to delay that ( its their territory that would be converted to Hell ) but that sets another ball rolling. That is a major issue for them. They have tank divisions aplenty but half their air units and almost all the special units (commandos but also EW and NBC recon) are either far afield or recently sent to Sweden too. It's not a paper tiger but its isn't the bear it was before. Oh, the EDA strike caught them right off-guard and messes everything up. Esculation - nukes, gas and cross-border invasions - are what everyone fears and everyone is waiting on. James
In the last chapter you said
In Moscow, there finally came a decision on how to act against what Western Europe had done by moving into Scandinavia: they would be pushed out with full force used. This didn’t include a wider European war. The Soviet leadership remained convinced it was in control of events and so sought a limited conflict. As they had done to the Swedes, they would punish the EDA and eliminate them as a threat over Sweden and the Baltic Exits too. By Scandinavia and the Baltic Exits did you mean just Sweden or Denmark as well? Given that the Swedes and NATO have pretty much cleared out the Baltic fleet any such attack must really come by land via Finland and for Denmark really via northern W Germany. Unless the Soviets are thinking what forces they have in their small and relatively isolated lodgement in S Sweden is enough to do it on its own in which case their really in cloud cookcoo land.
They have light naval units in the Baltic Exits and also air power down in East Germany and Poland, all of which is nearby. That air power, plus missile attacks, then afterwards ground units moved by air/sea the eastern side of the Baltic Exits in relatively sheltered area, was their plan. No initial strikes were planned through Finland and West Germany. Nothing like that was planned at the start, anyway. Cloud cookcoo land it isn't because they aren't that isolated. Bornholm will be a good backstop to rely upon too once taken. So, the mess becomes even worse. As was to be expected given the Soviet government. If the war goes broader, I'm quite sure that they'll attack Austria, if only because they believe that the Austrians will join the war against them as well. And they might also become very angry with Yugoslavia for refusing to kowtow. Incidentally, the Soviets really don't have many possible fronts for new wars left over here. They'd be fighting the Penguin Army of Antarctica soon enough. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Nov 30, 2018 20:54:02 GMT
(298)
February 1985: Europe
The first two days of the Euro-Soviet War were those which would be considered to be the most tense in a strategic sense. It was anticipated – with grave fear – that the conflict would go nuclear or if not then see the use of masses of chemical weapons against civilian targets. Both sides had such weapons in their arsenal. The Soviets had more, much more, yet EDA arsenals of weapons of mass destruction were nothing to scoff at especially since many of theirs were forward-deployed. The conflict didn’t go nuclear and nor were chemical weapons used in those first, crazy few days. What did occur was a lot of military action which took place across Europe. The limited conflict each side source went completely out of control. Neither Vorotnikov nor Mitterrand could stop the expansion of the fighting despite efforts to do so.
Citizens of the eight EDA countries (Belgium, Denmark, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Sweden and West Germany) woke up on the morning of February 27th to discover that their country was at war. It could be argued that those in Sweden went to sleep the night before with their country at war already though this new conflict was very different from how it had been before. Across Western Europe, despite announcements of no need to panic from their governments, there was a lot of that. There were many suicides which took place while others took the time to commit acts of criminality. The end of the world was nigh and so it was seen by many to go out on their terms or enjoy themselves before they were obliterated in nuclear fire. Millions of people wanted to leave their homes. Those who lived in cities, near military bases or close to the Iron Curtain regarded themselves as right in the way of the coming war and would rather not be there. Far more people only prepared to leave their homes than actually did but the numbers of people on the move were quite staggering. Governments had put measures in-place to stop this because it was long anticipated at the outset of conflict yet many of those restrictions on travel, which went alongside official statements to stay put, were woefully inadequate. Down through West Germany, north to south near to the Inner-German Border, there were government-enforced evacuations which did take place. The Bonn Government ordered some people to leave their homes and provided what they considered enough assistance to do so. Once again, this wasn’t enough. Those not being evacuated, who’d been told to stay put, witnessed others leaving and made efforts to flee as well. Hardly any of them had any idea where they were going. They just wanted to be far from here when the Soviet Army came west, almost certainly preceded by the use of nuclear and chemical weapons. Into West Germany, nor even into Denmark or through Austria & Yugoslavia towards Italy, the Soviets didn’t invade in those first few days though. Everyone was waiting for them to do so. The EDA had its military forces in position ready to repulse invading forces – quite a task – and they continued to wait for the Soviet Army to start moving.
Eastern European nations with the Warsaw Pact – Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland and Romania – all had no say in what the Soviets had done in the wider war with the Allies before the stand-off situation with the EDA exploded like it did. Moscow did what it wanted and demanded full, unconditional support from its allies. Romania had refused to act in any offensive manner against the Americans, the Chinese, the British and anyone else since September last year. The country wasn’t officially at war and internationally, other countries didn’t consider Romania to be at war in an unofficial manner either. Romania honoured its Warsaw Pact treaty commitments only in the form of being ready to defend its neighbours against external attack. With Poland, the country had been under occupation by its Warsaw Pact allies since last June. Czechoslovak and East German troops remained inside the country alongside Soviet forces. The Polish had very little sovereignty and a fully-disarmed military. The Warsaw Government did and said everything its Moscow masters told it to do. The four other nations took a position in between the independence of Romania and the subservience of Poland. Each maintained their sovereignty and had played an active role in the wider war while keen for their participation to remain limited. There was a troop commitment made to the fight in North America but, thankfully, none for the China War. Closer to home, there had been central command organisation with the Soviets at the top where the Warsaw Pact was a combined war machine ready to fight in Europe too though with a belief that if war hadn’t yet come, it never would. The tensions with France and Western Europe had kept on increasing though, along with a similar issue with Sweden. Unable to do anything to stop the Soviet Union from following the course of action it had chosen, the Eastern European countries had stayed out. They were looking at the bigger picture beyond the specifics of why Moscow was in dispute with their neighbours. War with Western Europe looked even more and more likely, and it was one that they feared being dragged into. Neither Bulgaria nor East Germany, the two countries with regimes closest to Moscow, wished to see that occur. Czechoslovakia and Hungary were just as concerned. Saying no to the Soviets, like the Romanians did, was only an option for Romania. The others couldn’t… unless they wanted to see what happened to Poland occur on their soil. None of these countries were impotent. They had partially-mobilised military forces and their own intelligence services. The latter all played second fiddle to the GRU and the KGB but couldn’t be written off as unimportant. East German espionage penetration of West Germany was especially strong and the Czechoslovaks had their own spies playing a role in that country as well. The Stasi and the StB each detected the large French nuclear deployment into West Germany come the beginning of 1985. They passed this information on to the Soviets. There came an acknowledgement of that: Moscow knew this anyway but the point was that East Berlin and Prague wanted the Soviets to understand their concern. Nothing the Soviets did showed any concern. They were all helpless across Eastern Europe. This was the situation that they were in before the EDA pre-emptive attack and after it too. Moscow would take the decisions that they had to follow. What else could they do?
Sweden, Denmark and Malta were the opening theatres of initial conflict between the EDA and the Soviets. Soon, the skies above the divided Germanies became another scene of fighting. The EDA had caught the Soviets completely off-guard and at the worst possible time. They were ready to go on the attack themselves in Scandinavia and moving their own forces into position. More damage was done than if they had been not out in open. Soviet air and naval forces were caught exposed. They took casualties accordingly. Down in the Central Med., the attack on Malta hurt the Libyans there more than the Soviets though they did take their own losses. The Soviet situation was better because Malta was a fortified forward position and Soviet forces weren’t moving forward ready to attack. Nonetheless, the joint French-Italian action hurt them.
Southern Sweden was where the Euro-Soviet War started and where in its first few days it was a furious series of engagements. French opening air attacks were followed by a Swedish ground attack a couple of hours later. The Swedes ran into interlocking defensive positions formed by the light troops who’d invaded last month and were still here. French and Swedish air power didn’t do that much to those: they had more effect upon Soviet air facilities. The Soviets held on. They fell back in a few places but these were only tactical withdrawals and none of those threatened their overall position holding onto occupied territory. The EDA attacks saw the Soviets do what they hadn’t done and enter both Malmo and Helsingborg though, those small cities on the cost where their troops had stayed outside of beforehand. They moved in to secure their rear against the shores of the Øresund. Inside each, they fought Swedes and also other French naval commandos inserted ahead of the outbreak of fighting. Swedish bravery and French élan could only do so much. The two cities fell. Soviet forces were surrounded by effective hostages in each and they moved many of their supporting forces into the urban areas. The air battles in the sky were favoring the EDA but there was no bombing of those cities. Pushing forward and wiping out the Soviets within days had never been a realistic EDA option but they had believed that they could weaken the Soviets more than they did at the start of the conflict. There was still the possibility of the Soviets being reinforced from their forces over in East Germany too. If that was to be stopped, and those long on Swedish soil wiped out, the Second Battle of the Baltic Exits needed to be won by the EDA.
French naval and Italian air forces joined with the Danes in fighting through the Baltic Exits. Belgian paratroopers and also some warships of theirs were on the way to join in within days. Denmark did most of the fighting though. Copenhagen had been quietly evacuated by the Danish Government where they removed themselves though not the civilian population. All around that city, war came. EDA efforts to scour the Øresund of Soviet forces weren’t enough and Copenhagen was in the center of that fighting where the Soviets fought back. They were overcome yet not until the end of the second day. Before then, their smaller naval vessels and well as aircraft flying up from East Germany battled with the Danes and the other EDA forces. Copenhagen’s airport was a big target for Soviet air strikes and it was also targeted by land-based missiles coming north too. Danish airbases from where their aircraft and those of the EDA were flying from were elsewhere yet Copenhagen was a fixation for the Soviets… to the detriment of the wider fight. Once the Soviets were either destroyed or pushed back away to the south, there remained a hostile coast to the east where they were in Sweden. There was no shared belief in the view taken by the Swedes and the French that once the Soviets were pushed away from Denmark this fight was over. The Danes remained greatly concerned that there was going to be a turnaround come early March and the Soviets would be back. The country reeled from the attacks around Copenhagen and then, late on the 28th, Soviet aircraft and missiles made further appearances above and into Denmark with Zealand and other islands attacked. From Bornholm, there was soon silence. That island, out away to the east, went ‘dark’ in terms of military and civilian communications. The Soviets were active there and had either taken it all at once or were in the process of doing so once they had cut if off. Denmark’s war was only going to continue.
The Battle for Malta had begun with air attacks. The Italians had bombed the island, hitting Soviet and Libyan forces there, and then that joint naval force came towards the island from the west. A second naval force, this one almost all Italian in composition, approached from the east though. The Italians moved down the Ionian Sea as well (between Italy and Greece) and this second flotilla contained amphibious ships loaded with marines. Italy had some elements of its armed forces away in both Denmark and West Germany though the majority were at home. They had more light troops from their army ready to support their marines due to having significant forces in the south of their country along with all of those in the Alps facing the Austrian & Yugoslavian frontiers. Before any amphibious landing could take place, planned for between five to seven days after the start of the war, Malta was attacked from the air first and so were Soviet and Libyan naval forces in nearby waters. There wasn’t much left of the Soviet Mediterranean Fleet. All of the big ships which had survived were near to Crete. The EDA aimed to isolate Malta and take it fast, liberating the people and removing the threat to Italy’s southern shores while also seeing control of the Med. taken by such a move. They were playing big here. Soviet cooperation with this plan wasn’t going to come though. Flying from Crete (the Greeks hadn’t agreed to any offensive action from their soil but they had let the Soviets in already), they sent aircraft on attack missions towards mainland Italy rather than to directly defend Malta. Airbases in southern Italy were hit hard by bombs and missiles. The Italians did well to counter many strikes but others got through. By the second day, the Soviets were no longer flying these only over international waters like they did at first. Their aircraft went through Greek airspace to get around Italian air patrols over the Ionian Sea. Soon enough, they’d be flying above Albania too as the war here expanded. Malta was set to be invaded as planned but the conflict was becoming larger in scope.
Only the French remained with troops in West Berlin. They had assisted the Americans and British in leaving last year but kept their own forces in-place. The city was undefendable. West Germany had been forced to understand that in the event of war with the Soviets, it would be lost. In private, Bonn had resigned itself to the coming loss the moment that the Euro-Soviet War started. As to the French troops there, they received a coded message ahead of the EDA attack on the Soviets to surrender rather than fight. Nothing else could be done. This was more than just an issue of a pointless loss of life should they had fought, which they would have should they have had their communications cut, but part of the internal politics of the EDA alliance. West Germany didn’t want to see the million plus civilians there caught up in the fighting between French and Soviet forces. As expected, within hours of the start of eth conflict, Soviet and East German forces moved forward into the city in a well-rehearsed result. They unleashed plentiful firepower despite no proper French resistance. There were some instances of the French returning fire but the general order to surrender, and surrender properly too, with full honours, was followed. West Berlin was gobbled up. French troops were marched away and more Soviets and East Germans moved in. These weren’t fighting soldiers but secret policemen and security troops. The political impact in West Germany of losing the city wouldn’t be as limited as the Bonn Government had hoped it would be. Those were West Germans over there and they had been abandoned without a shot fired – such was the narrative – by neither the French nor their own government.
The skies over East Germany and West Germany were a battlefield. Aerial combat led to attack missions against round targets from where aircraft flew. The Soviets fired conventionally-armed missiles from hidden ground locations as well. Blow-and-counterblow fast became all-out air attacks. Shooting incidents on the border occurred between those two nations as well as along the Czechoslovak-West German frontier took place too. Patrols met other patrols and infiltration parties. Permission was sought for reinforcements to hot spots and before then both air and artillery support. All over the place there were these clashes. Aircraft and helicopters joined in as well. Behind the borders, the armies of the two opposing blocs moved around troops. Neither went straight into attack positions ready for an invasion either way yet intelligence reports on this – where one side interpreted the movements of another with their own opinion formed – pointed to this being likely. Plans were thus made accordingly to stop that expected invasion… plans which on both sides had counter-invasion options and the use of weapons of mass destruction. These actions would only occur upon direct higher authorisation but meanwhile, those fighting did their best to try to prepare for them. Politicians and leaders far away were going to make those decisions, not the men who’d do the fighting where such invasions or strategic weapons strikes took place. The EDA already had their regular forces in West Germany in-place and they pushed forward pre-alerted reserves before the end of the month into that country too. As to the Warsaw Pact, Eastern European mobilisation occurred in full and there was also the rolling forward of a mass of Soviet forces from both Poland and the western part of the Soviet Union to join their forward forces.
The Euro-Soviet War began as a separate conflict from the wider Third World War. Upon starting, it was viewed like the China War was: something distinctly different from the war that the Allies were fighting with the Soviet-led Socialist Forces. That was never going to last. It was taking place very near to where the Allies and the Soviets had already clashed and where each had military forces in forward positions. There was a lot of diplomatic activity going on. EDA and Allied governments were on one side of that diplomacy while on the other the Soviets were engaged in a heavy-fisted approach towards countries such as Finland and Yugoslavia to get them on their side too. Among all of this, into France and the Low Countries ahead of any diplomatic arrangement and a formal alliance, British military officers arrived at Den Helder, Rotterdam, Antwerp, Ostend, Calais, Le Havre and Cherbourg. These were logistics people who weren’t visiting these ports on a sight-seeing tour. They were preceding the arrival of the incoming British Second Army.
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