Eagle Guardian: The War of 2010

[James G]

The map got a bit a bit of an upgrade but is still a mess.
Purple are Coalition nations, light blue is liberated NATO soil, dark blue is occupied Russian/Belorussian soil.
(click on map to enlarge)

[raunchel]

Jul 2, 2019 19:09:34 GMT James G said:

Jul 2, 2019 19:07:03 GMT raunchel said:

Yeah, the Russian demands went quite far given their current position on conventional terms.

The first demands, made in the middle of August, were really unreasonable.
There will be some calls to accept these new terms - modified somewhat - but the US has already said no.

Right now, NATO will be walking a fine line. They want to win the war and defang the Russians. Despite their material superiority, they can't drive on Moscow to drive the point home to the Russian people that Russia has been truly beaten. That, together with the betrayal of Volk and this coup could easily feed revanchist thinking. Fortunately, Russia will be utterly wrecked economically and won't have the means for a round two for quite a while.

[usnvet]

Jul 2, 2019 8:45:27 GMT James G said:

Jul 2, 2019 0:14:52 GMT usnvet said:

A very minor nitpick. The EAM, instead of saying "POTUS" would say "NCA", short for National Command Authority. Same meaning but SIOP speak.

forcon I think this is right.
usnvet Just speculation but do they do this so that in a tense situation, those at the other end don't have to concern themselves / worry about the fate of POTUS or anyone else which might distract their mission? Or is it just a technical thing? Along similar lines I assume anyone shooting a nuke wouldn't be told details of a target just a code number which designates a target? I.e. "shoot at 23gd6fe86zx" instead of "launch on the kremlin"?

It's pretty much a technical thing. As for targets, crews aren't typically told exactly what their target is. A friend who flew B-52s in the 80s said once that on one of his turns on alert, he thought he was the insurance policy targeting the Politburo. Plane was loaded with two B53 bombs (9MT each) and mission brief for target located near Moscow was "when you get there you'll see a big crater. Drop both bombs in the crater."

[James G]

Two Hundred and Two

The director of Russia’s FSB, Alexander Vasilyevich Bortnikov, launched what history would call a ‘soft coup’. The victors do always get to write the history books. Such a term to describe what happened following President Putin’s launch of a lone ICBM to frighten and intimidate the West, was rather inaccurate. There was nothing soft about his coup d’état. Violence was involved and it was a true ‘blow against the state’ as in the way it was meant in the French language. The term soft was really used because what Bortnikov did was seen by many as soft. His masculinity would be question and he would be mocked for not just what he did, but what he didn’t do.

This was the second coup in two years which he was responsible for. In 2009, he had orchestrated the deposing of Medvedev at the behest of Putin. Bortnikov had encouraged, planned and executed that act. Now he was responsible for this follow-up one too. It wasn’t as dramatic as the first coup was with far fewer casualties caused. ‘Soft’ it was, just not a soft coup because Bortnikov’s action saw violence happen.


It occurred within the Kosvinsky Mountain complex. This facility was similar to the better-known Mount Yamantau also in the Urals yet more modern. The Russian Security Council had been evacuated here on Patrushev’s instructions ahead of Putin’s nuclear demonstration without informing its members, including Bortnikov, of the exact reason why. Unwilling to just accept that, and watching Putin fully under the control of Patrushev but also Bortnikov’s personal enemy the GRU head Shlyakhturov, he took action. Bortnikov had been making preparations to ‘save’ Putin from his poisonous advisers for some time. On the way to Kosvinsky, he learnt what had been done with that R-36M missile. It had the hand of Shlyakhturov all over it: Putin never would have done that on his own.

There was the additional factor in Bortnikov’s decision where he – and others – had been on their way to that secure site when the missile which NATO called the SS-18 Satan had exploded over the North Atlantic. Putin, Patrushev, Shlyakhturov and General Makarov were all safe.

Everyone else, including he, wasn’t.

Bortnikov had his FSB people at Kosvinsky there as bodyguards for the president. The senior-most officer was a trusted comrade of Bortnikov. He sent him an urgent, eyes-only signal: ‘Da’. The plan was already in-place and the coup took place before Bortnikov arrived. In the confines of the mountains, there were some exchanges of gunfire though in the main armed FSB officers – many of the Spetsnaz personnel – took others by surprise and disarmed them. External communications were shut down using another pre-existing plan, this one drawn up with the innocent notion of preventing a coup… Bortnikov didn’t have time to dwell on the irony of that. He arrived at Kosvinsky only when everything was over.

Shlyakhturov, Patrushev (the Security Council head and one of Bortnikov’s predecessors) and Makarov (the armed forces C-in-C) were all shot on his personal orders along with some lower-ranking personnel among their staffs and also among the president’s. As to Putin, he was arrested. Foreign Minister Kozak and Prime Minister Ivanov, each as well on the plane which brought Bortnikov to the Urals, were likewise taken into custody without having any idea as to what was going on.

Putin’s arrest, instead of death, came as a surprise to everyone. Many thought he should have been shot. Bortnikov was urged to do so – and kill Kozak and Ivanov too – by others but he refused to do so. He explained that the foreign minister could be useful as someone to ‘gift’ to the West while a domestic public trial would await the prime minister. As to Putin… Bortnikov spoke of retiring him somewhat. In a safe place, a secure facility, but not killing him. He had allowed himself to be led astray and had failed the Russian people, Bortnikov said, yet there was no need to kill him.

He did this to win over other members of the Security Council.

All he did was convince many that he was weak: that he was soft.


Bortnikov appointed himself acting president. Defence Minister Zubkov, Emergency Situations Minister Shoygu and Ground Forces C-in-C General Gerasimov all went along with him. He informed them that the (forcibly) retired Lavrov would return to the Security Council back in his old role as foreign minister and that Lebedev – the CIS head, someone cut out of these meetings beforehand – would join them soon enough too. His stated intention to those with him at Kosvinsky was to end the war.

There was a prepared draft of something which he wished to send to the Americans, something hastily added too now in light of the use of that Russian ICBM. Communications connections with the Kremlin were reopened and another FSB man – someone else who had received a ‘Da’ order – reported that there was a waiting message which had come from the United States over the Moscow-to-Washington Hot-Line. Bortnikov had it sent on to him. He sped read through it. It said what he expected it to say. He instructed that his own reply be sent, one which barely addressed the issues in that all-important American communication.

Russia’s new leader – his message said ‘I am in command here now; Putin no longer holds the office of the presidency’ – proposed ending the war with an all-encompassing ceasefire to come into effect as soon as possible: he wanted that to be within the next twelve hours. There would be prisoner exchanges and the release of civilians. War crime allegations were to be sorted out at a later date but apart from what he deemed ‘key regime figures’, Russia wouldn’t be handing anyone over to the Coalition unless Russia alone chose to. Bortnikov proposed that Russian forces would leave the Baltic States and Belarus (plus the sliver of Norway still held) while NATO would withdraw from Kaliningrad and Belarus at the same time. He foresaw a timetable of two weeks here. In addition, in exchange for Russian withdrawals from internationally-agreed Georgian sovereign soil – Abkhazia and South Ossetia –, the Coalition would too pull out of Sakhalin and the Kuriles: a period of four weeks was proposed here.

Bortnikov asked for an American response.

Soon, really soon, there came two responses.

The first, over the Hot-Line, didn’t address his ceasefire offer. The second was physical and took place at a significant distance from Kosvinsky yet not far from Russia’s borders.


In the Gulf of Finland, low over that stretch of waterway with Finland to the north, occupied Estonia to the south & St. Petersburg to the east, four thermonuclear detonations took place. Each had an explosive force of four hundred and seventy-five kilotons.

USS Wyoming, a US Navy ballistic missile submarine, had launched a single Trident D5 missile with MIRV warheads (a second missile was held ready) which had shot out of the Norwegian Sea and released its quartet of warheads up in space. Those descended back down to earth and detonated in a line along the middle of the Gulf of Finland. Each W88 warhead functioned as advertised. There was no aim to kill anyone though there were casualties where several Russian Navy patrol boats and minelayers – what was left of their Baltic Fleet – were in the way. Civilian casualties amounted to a few Finnish civilians too, people out in small craft who shouldn’t have been there.

Again, this was a nuclear demonstration.

For almost a month, the Wyoming had been held ready to do this. She was one of many Ohio-class ‘boomers’ at sea though others had what could be called standard targeting patterns in their databanks ready to fire on Russian nuclear forces and cities too if necessary. Both the French Navy and the Royal Navy also had ballistic missile subs ready for the same mission as the other Ohios. However, with the Wyoming, the targets for her missiles were anything but standard. She had been given a ‘special mission targeting’ role. There had been a concern for some time that Russia might use nuclear missiles of their own in a demonstration role of some sort. Scenarios were plotted out and counters devised at proportionate and disproportionate levels.

It gave Biden ready-to-use options and America’s forty-fifth president – there because his predecessor had been slaughtered by Russian commandos at the very outbreak of war – made use of those with the fire mission sent to the Wyoming.


Within moments of the nuclear blasts, Bortnikov was made aware of them. Information from multiple sources confirmed what the Biden had told him was about to happen in response to Russia’s own action. A second message came over the Hot-Line from Washington. This one was longer though there was some clear evidence that parts of it had been drawn up quickly: naturally, there’d been very surprised on the other end to hear about Bortnikov being ‘in command here’…

…as well as still being unsure if this wasn’t some sort of ruse too.

Stating that they were speaking on behalf of the Coalition, the United States informed Bortnikov that the West had its own terms for ending the war. These were different from his proposal, much different.

Russia’s new leader was watched by the Security Council – previous members missing after his culling of them – as he said nothing and sat with his elbows on a table, head in his hands. He didn’t know what to say, what to do. Soft, they would say, and weak too.


End of Part Nine

[oldbleep]

How many minutes to midnight is the Doomsday Clock set to now ?

[lordbyron]

I imagine it's one minute from midnight, if it isn't already on midnight...

[James G]

Jul 2, 2019 19:31:35 GMT raunchel said:

Jul 2, 2019 19:09:34 GMT James G said:

The first demands, made in the middle of August, were really unreasonable.
There will be some calls to accept these new terms - modified somewhat - but the US has already said no.

Right now, NATO will be walking a fine line. They want to win the war and defang the Russians. Despite their material superiority, they can't drive on Moscow to drive the point home to the Russian people that Russia has been truly beaten. That, together with the betrayal of Volk and this coup could easily feed revanchist thinking. Fortunately, Russia will be utterly wrecked economically and won't have the means for a round two for quite a while.

That about sums it up. Russia, whichever madman is in charge, has used a nuke and NATO cannot now continue to Moscow.
Russia is a wreck. It will take decades to get up from this mess,  even if they can.
,

Jul 2, 2019 21:17:18 GMT usnvet said:

It's pretty much a technical thing. As for targets, crews aren't typically told exactly what their target is. A friend who flew B-52s in the 80s said once that on one of his turns on alert, he thought he was the insurance policy targeting the Politburo. Plane was loaded with two B53 bombs (9MT each) and mission brief for target located near Moscow was "when you get there you'll see a big crater. Drop both bombs in the crater."

2x 9 megatons! I'm picturing the guy from Dr Strangelove riding one all the way in.
Great story!

Jul 2, 2019 22:10:59 GMT oldbleep said:

How many minutes to midnight is the Doomsday Clock set to now ?

Jul 2, 2019 22:33:06 GMT lordbyron said:

I imagine it's one minute from midnight, if it isn't already on midnight...

I think it depends now on how much public awareness there is of the use of nukes. All detonated at sea. There is censorship too: enforced but also voluntary with the media.
Oh it will all leak eventually but not at once.

[James G]

Annoucement
Guys and girls, this story has less than a week left to run. Forcon and I have many plans for the ending, including a detailed epilogue covering much.
But, it shall end at some point very soon.

[lordroel]

Jul 3, 2019 8:42:45 GMT James G said:

Annoucement
Guys and girls, this story has less than a week left to run. Forcon and I have many plans for the ending, including a detailed epilogue covering much.
But, it shall end at some point very soon.

Well it was a good run.

[arrowiv]

Well done. Still, with regards to neutrals such as China, Serbia, or even Cuba, looks like Mad Vlad didn't get much help from any of them in this conflict. Wonder how post-war relations with Russia would be like for them, considering their lack of support.

[oldbleep]

Well it's been a cracking story, so I look forward to however it ends.

[forcon]

As James said, we both have other stories underway right now as well - and many more future writing plans, so don't despair!

[lordroel]

Jul 3, 2019 12:58:34 GMT forcon said:

As James said, we both have other stories underway right now as well - and many more future writing plans, so don't despair!

You do know that the Grand Order of the Master Writer can only be handed to a member once, so keeping posting these great TLs will not mean you get a extra one.

[ricobirch]

Jul 3, 2019 8:40:45 GMT James G said:

I think it depends now on how much public awareness there is of the use of nukes. All detonated at sea. There is censorship too: enforced but also voluntary with the media.
Oh it will all leak eventually but not at once.

Jul 1, 2019 17:48:54 GMT forcon said:

From Scotland, Norway, and Denmark, the massive fireball was visible.

If it was visible from land there will be cell phone footage.

[forcon]

Part Ten

Two Hundred and Three

NATO could not politically accept the peace terms that Bortnikov had offered; the Alliance had suffered so much already. Hundreds of thousands of people were dead in Europe and Russia had supported a chemical weapons attack on US forces. European cities had been bombed as far away as London, and the United States had likewise suffered attacks on its own soil. Ships, from aircraft carriers to frigates, had been lost by the dozen. Armies had been crippled by the intensity of the fighting and the sheer number of fatalities and long-term injuries.

A return to the status qo simply wasn’t going to cut it. If NATO had accepted Bortnikov’s peace offer, hundreds of war criminals would have gone free and Russia would have suffered no real punishment, nor would she have born any public war guilt.

Even for the most war-weary nations, this simply wasn’t good enough. The United States, Britain, and France, as the three ‘leaders’ of NATO in both the military and political sense, made nervous inquiries to the more reluctant Allies such as Germany, but even for Berlin a ceasefire on the terms offered by Bortnikov wouldn’t do. There would be no real punishment for Russia in the eyes of many. It was true that Russia’s military had effectively been destroyed and the capital city repeatedly bombed, but for a vengeful NATO this wasn’t the same as Moscow accepting war guilt.

Before the Allies were willing to seek peace, Russia – whoever was in charge – would have to accept responsibility for its actions as a nation. More than that, President Putin would have to face criminal charges for his actions in the West. All of NATO agreed that it would have to be an international trial with no possibility of the death penalty, even countries such as the United States that planned to execute several Russian military personnel found guilty of war crimes. There were many other figures that would have to publicly face the consequences of their actions, but Putin was key amongst them, and Bortnikov couldn’t let that happen if he wanted to rule Russia after the war; not with all that Putin new.

Until somebody came to power that was willing to hand over the disgraced Former President, now sitting in a lonely cell of Lefortovo Prison awaiting his fate, NATO wouldn’t be willing to bring a halt to the wholesale destruction of the meagre remnants of Russia’s armed forces.