Eagle Guardian: The War of 2010

[elfastball7]

Jul 3, 2019 8:42:45 GMT James G said:

Annoucement
Guys and girls, this story has less than a week left to run. Forcon and I have many plans for the ending, including a detailed epilogue covering much.
But, it shall end at some point very soon.

Awesome. Can’t wait for me WWIII TLs! With this TL coming to a close, one update per day or two?

[davidfloyd]

And the solution presents itself. If Putin were to suffer an "accident", Russia can turn over his body with regrets.

[lordroel]

Jul 3, 2019 18:07:28 GMT davidfloyd said:

And the solution presents itself. If Putin were to suffer an "accident", Russia can turn over his body with regrets.

Was thinking the same, Putin falling down the stairs, into a pile of knives that are laying on the ground would be unfortunately.

[James G]

Jul 3, 2019 10:52:01 GMT arrowiv said:

Well done. Still, with regards to neutrals such as China, Serbia, or even Cuba, looks like Mad Vlad didn't get much help from any of them in this conflict. Wonder how post-war relations with Russia would be like for them, considering their lack of support.

There's a lot to cover in the epilogue: we've talked of doing one each to cover a lot of stuff but Forcon and I will sort that out.
Russia hoped that those countries would just 'fall in line' but they didn't.

Jul 3, 2019 12:55:01 GMT oldbleep said:

Well it's been a cracking story, so I look forward to however it ends.

That you. More to come in the coming days. A happy ending isn't on the cards BTW.

Jul 3, 2019 17:50:32 GMT ricobirch said:

If it was visible from land there will be cell phone footage.

Yep, you're right. I phrased what I wrote wrong. What I meant was wider known everyone being aware of what has happened rather than just some people who have some idea and unable to get news outlets to broadcast their stories for the time being.

[James G]

Jul 3, 2019 18:05:57 GMT elfastball7 said:

Jul 3, 2019 8:42:45 GMT James G said:

Annoucement
Guys and girls, this story has less than a week left to run. Forcon and I have many plans for the ending, including a detailed epilogue covering much.
But, it shall end at some point very soon.

Awesome. Can’t wait for me WWIII TLs! With this TL coming to a close, one update per day or two?

We'll be at one update a day, I think.
I've turned my mind in recent days as to what I might want to write next and am still deciding.

Jul 3, 2019 18:07:28 GMT davidfloyd said:

And the solution presents itself. If Putin were to suffer an "accident", Russia can turn over his body with regrets.

That would be unfortunate.
An accident as in a case of a high-speed lead-induced brain haemorrhage?

Jul 3, 2019 18:13:46 GMT lordroel said:

Was thinking the same, Putin falling down the stairs, into a pile of knives that are laying on the ground would be unfortunately.

You have an evil mind, but so do I in laughing at this idea.

[davidfloyd]

Oh no, Russia would never do such a thing. Unfortunately, as Russia was preparing to comply, Putin suffered a sudden and fatal massive stroke, likely due to extreme stress.

[arrowiv]

You can bet that the US hardliners would insist on a war guilt clause for Moscow in any treaty and very strict disarmament provisions (no nukes, no missiles, no bombers, no nothing!)

[elfastball7]

Jul 3, 2019 18:47:49 GMT James G said:

I've turned my mind in recent days as to what I might want to write next and am still deciding.

Another WWIII TL if I may ask?

I have said this before. Big fan of your WWIII TLs

[James G]

Jul 3, 2019 19:08:49 GMT davidfloyd said:

Oh no, Russia would never do such a thing. Unfortunately, as Russia was preparing to comply, Putin suffered a sudden and fatal massive stroke, likely due to extreme stress.

These things happen...

Jul 3, 2019 21:56:35 GMT arrowiv said:

You can bet that the US hardliners would insist on a war guilt clause for Moscow in any treaty and very strict disarmament provisions (no nukes, no missiles, no bombers, no nothing!)

I have no doubt that would be the case. But seeing that done looks impossible unless they're willing to march to Moscow, the Urals and then Siberia... while DC, New York, LA, Chicago and everywhere else in between gets glassed.

Jul 4, 2019 0:55:28 GMT elfastball7 said:

Another WWIII TL if I may ask?

I have said this before. Big fan of your WWIII TLs

I have some ideas on that note. Maybe a short (what I would call short: say 100k words) story.
I am aware. Thank you very much for your continued support. I must say though this story would never have happened without Forcon.

[James G]

Two Hundred and Four

Bortnikov’s reign as the leader of Russia lasted barely two days. The short period was a time of great strain for the nation and its leadership. It came to an end when on the morning of September 21st he was deposed.

From a Kremlin window, Bortnikov was thrown to the ground below.

The act of defenestration – done in true Bohemian style it could be said – didn’t kill him. The fall was only from four stories. He was on the ground outside in the rain and still alive. The best medical care might have saved him though he certainly never would have walked again and been left with life changing injuries. Those who did this to him had orders to cause his death by a fall from a window of height. They could have gone outside, taken him back in again to the room from where he had been thrown and repeated the process. The prospect of that was too much to stomach: the mess outside was quite a bit to have to deal with. Disobeying orders to make this look like a suicide, one of the military officers involved in deposing Bortnikov leaned out of the window – being careful not to fall! – and fired a three-round burst from an AK-74 he had taken from one of the sergeants with him who had done the ‘heavy work’ when it came to the defenestration. Those shots would kill Bortnikov instantly.

The King Is Dead! Long Live The (new) King!


Between his violent assumption of power and his death, Bortnikov had faced revolt to his rule. He was a true usurper. There was no legitimacy to his presidency after he deposed Putin. This might not have mattered if Bortnikov had been able to use his force of personality to enforce his rule but he was lacking in that department. The appearance of the weakness he had shown in not killing Putin had only rapidly grown when he had done nothing after the American’s gave their own nuclear demonstration in reaction to Russia’s similar act. When he had presented his terms of arranging a ceasefire & armistice with the Coalition had summarily rejected, Bortnikov had no fallback plan. Those who had supported him turned their anger against him for failing to live up to his promises. Key figures such as General Gerasimov, Shoygu and Zubkov realised their mistake. From outside the Bortnikov-reformed Russian Security Council, the opposition was present and strong right from the start. Russia was a federation made up of multiple entities. There were semi-independent republics (based along ethnic lines) with their own presidents, oblasts and krais: the latter two being federal subjects along regional lines with their own leaders & legislatures. From across Russia, there were barely a few messages of support to his leadership. Everyone else was opposed to him and this included the President of Tatarstan who promised open revolt. Russia’s federal parliament had been turned into a rubber-stamp for Putin’s authority and there was no mood there for Bortnikov. The Russian people weren’t suddenly going to embrace the leadership of the nation’s senior-most secret policeman. The officer ranks of the armed forces didn’t fall in-line either: they too had no love for the siloviki anyway and especially not this particular weak chekist.

The first violence in opposition to Bortnikov came from the GRU. General Shlyakhturov had been among the first killed at the Kosvinsky Mountain complex but his organisation, Russia’s military intelligence apparatus, didn’t crumble and neither were its senior people running around like headless chickens. The GRU’s deputy head, General Sergun, at once started to prepare for a counter-coup to depose Bortnikov and his FSB cohorts. It was foreseen as a difficult process and Sergun was self-ware enough to know that he didn’t have the force of personality to lead Russia after Bortnikov was gone, but he got the process underway regardless hoping someone would follow his lead and act. GRU men started killing FSB people in clashes across Russia. Bortnikov had come to Moscow and set himself up in the Kremlin but he ruled over a country on the path to civil war. His regime was at once on shaky ground with all of that opposition vocal and now violent. There was no course of action presented to those who came back from Kosvinsky with him as to how to end the war. They had supported him because that was what he had said he could achieve.

Bortnikov failed to deliver and paid for it.

Gerasimov launched a second coup d’état. He had the support of the senior surviving Security Council figures such as Shoygu and Zubkov as well as externally from Sergun plus contact with domestic political figures. The GRU support was key to making it all work though Gerasimov, named by Bortnikov days beforehand as the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces after the shooting of General Makarov at Kosvinsky, would have done it without them if he had to. Moreover, he probably would have fought the GRU too. The situation got that bad with war continuing in the form of Coalition – especially American – attacks on the Rodina and the fear of civil war. Bortnikov had to go or it would be the end of them all. He sent a detachment of committed personnel to the Kremlin to take it and kill Bortnikov – the Kremlin’s guards were withdrawn in a secret deal and only armed FSB people were there –, who reported success, and gave Sergun military support as the GRU went after the FSB elsewhere. They did the military’s dirty work for them in wiping out people thought either loyal to Bortnikov (not a big number) or those who would oppose their rule too.

Putin was ‘rescued’ from Lefortovo Prison by Spetsnaz in GRU service. He was there under a different name and drugged to keep him quiet. FSB officers were gunned down by the Spetsnaz – including those who had surrendered – and Putin bundled aboard a helicopter. A return to the Kremlin wasn’t on the cards for him though. Sergun orchestrated a video recording of him in his ‘poor condition’ with ‘ill health’ apparent (this would all be digitally manipulated) and then he was taken to a GRU detention facility down in the southern regions of Russia. He’d fulfilled his need.

Once everything was completed, Bortnikov killed and the FSB put down, General Gerasimov came to the Kremlin. He took the oath of office there. Again, he was an usurper with no legal nor democratic legitimacy just like Bortnikov had been. However, he had an alliance behind him and was fast to make sure that he would win as many people over as possible… those who wanted to resist his rule would find that violence would be used against them quickly. It would be discreet and targeted too with none of the hesitancy, none of the softness & weakness, that Bortnikov had had before he ‘jumped’ from that window.


Those two days of Bortnikov’s rule saw the war with the Coalition continue onwards. Each side had used nuclear weapons though not directly against each other. Hot-Line messages had been exchanged yet no agreement had been made to stop the ongoing fighting.

In Latvia, where NATO’s armies had seen recent victory, but a rather costly one, the advance there on to Estonia was stalled. Artillery and air strikes took place while reorganisation was made of NATO forces. The Americans moved up their national guardsmen with the US IX Corps ready to go forward with their existing troops in-country along with those from their allies who their governments would give permission to advance too. Everyone else would stay behind if they had to. The plans were for a renewed attack to begin in a week’s time, going forward against dug-in Russian reservists who would be blasted out of their positions just like anyone else. Down in Belarus, there was further securing of parts of that country which remained unoccupied by American, French and Polish forces involved in the push eastwards. The Russian-Belorussian frontier wasn’t to be crossed again but advances were made elsewhere. In the very northeast near Vitebsk, and down in the southeast around Gomel, there were Russian troops and also those Belorussians loyal to the captured Lukashenko. Engagements were fought and the US V Corps emerged the winner of each of those. Nearly all of Belarus was in Coalition hands and this included the entire frontier with Russia now. These advances created a strategic situation on the ground which General Mattis had his CJTF–East planning staff look at with the possibility of a later advance should he be given orders to undertake: by attacking across Russian soil, northern Latvia and all of Estonia could be liberated from behind and even St. Petersburg reached should Mattis get a go-order on that.

Russia came under renewed air and missile attack with strikes taking place against what could be called ‘semi-strategic targets’. The Americans only – their allies urging caution – launched cruise missiles from ships and dropped guided bombs from strike aircraft flying above the Rodina. They hit military industrial targets in various parts of the country. Several factories which manufactured combat aircraft, tanks and other weapons, plus shipyards too, were hit. Many of these had been attacked before. The worries of allies were that following the use of nuclear weapons in demonstrations, this all could cause a miscalculation and lead to a real nuclear strike. The Americans continued with them though, telling their allies they were being careful. The reason why this was done was stated by Washington to other capitals to keep the pressure up on Moscow though there was another angle to it which the Joint Chiefs had argued in talks with Nunn and Biden to see them done. The thinking among those senior military men was that Russia was going to throw the towel in. There was a short timeframe to do them more damage before the fighting ended. Plenty of ALCMs, Tomahawks and the latest of the JDAMs had been used up during the war already, lowering numbers of war-stocks immensely, but some had been held back ‘just in case’. The just in case was undefined but it was seen as occurring now. Serious damage was done at multiple sites which Russia would have an arduous task of ever repairing.

In the Barents Sea, that Russian Kilo-class submarine which had previously done so much damage in the English Channel turned up here. RFS Vologda was on its way home, heading back to Northern Fleet bases bombed repeatedly by Task Force 20. Those facilities along the Kola Peninsula were being hit once more by the US Navy using aircraft-dropped bombs and Tomahawks as the Vologda approached. A flash radio message from one of the few operative radio sites ordered the submarine to attack the Americans no matter what her situation was with a low weapons load. This was done. A frigate and a destroyer were hit (neither would sink) and then the Vologda moved in against one of the aircraft carriers: the USS Enterprise. The submarine attempted to put a hole in that vessel too. If it did, US Navy air operations would be seriously disrupted and a famous victory won. Alas, no more did the luck of the Vologda and her crew hold. The Belgian Navy sunk her… the Belgians of all people! They had one of their frigates with TF 20 as a recent addition for anti-submarine work after the BNS Louise-Marie had spent many weeks in the North Atlantic. The Russian boat closed in on the carrier which the Belgians were defending and torpedoes were launched into the water from the frigate. First one and then a second struck home. There would be no surviving crew members to pull from the sea. Every Belgian sailor who was in the company of American naval service-personnel for the coming decade would declare that they were aboard the Louise-Marie that day and seek to be brought a beer (or several) for saving the Enterprise from surely ‘a certain sinking’.


Gerasimov sought to lead Russia as a post-war military strongman. He had shown off his credentials by launching a war on the FSB and seizing the Kremlin: the underhand kidnapping of the family of the commander of the guard force to force his men to withdraw ahead of the attack wasn’t mentioned in that narrative. As a strongman, he acted whereas the weak Bortnikov had done nothing. Like the man he had killed though, Gerasimov had said he would end the war with the West.

That he set out to do.

Rather than using the Hot-Line and its email set up, Gerasimov contacted Biden directly. He had a phone call made to the White House where he requested to speak to the American president. This took time and he was frustrated with the delay but he got through to his opposite number in the end. There were many people listening-in on the line and they spoke via translators on either end yet it was the best direct person-to-person contact that could be made short of the two men being in a room together.

A ceasefire and follow-up armistice was requested. Gerasimov stated that he was willing to accept the conditions expressed by the Coalition. He asked how soon the end to the fighting could start

“Let’s stop the fighting and save the world”, he told Biden.

[lordroel]

Jul 4, 2019 18:53:52 GMT James G said:

Two Hundred and Four

“Let’s stop the fighting and save the world”, he told Biden.

first a good update James G.

Nice to hear talks about to start, and World War III is over.

[forcon]

Two Hundred and Five

The terms minimum terms at which NATO would accept peace were harsh ones at best. General Gerasimov, in his role as ‘acting president’ found himself first negotiating a ceasefire with NATO before a more finalised peace agreement was reached. Taking place within hours of his coup against Bortnikov, Gerasimov ended the immediate hostilities in his phone call with President Biden in the United States. Across Belarus and in Norway and the Baltic States, the guns finally began to fall silent as NATO forces received the following message;

“Cease all hostilities. Maintain defensive posture.”

The relief in the air was palpable. It would take until nightfall for the fighting to finally cease completely, but for the first time in many months, soldiers on both sides could stand up outside of their foxholes while civilians could sleep in the relative certainty that no nuclear warheads were going to come falling down onto them in the dead of night. Celebrations ran wild throughout major Western cities at the end of the war; the city of London, for example, was reported to have actually run out of alcohol on the first night of the ceasefire. Though the claim was somewhat exaggerated, it was not far from the truth, with the story much the same in France, Spain, Italy and Germany. Even in Poland, where thousands had seen their loved ones and friends perish, there were wild celebrations.

With the ceasefire now in effect, President Biden could begin formal negotiations to end the war. The terms he gave Gerasimov were these;
1) Withdrawal of Russian military forces from abroad and from occupied territory. This included Russia's bases in Armenia and on the Ukrainian-ruled Crimean Peninsula as well as in Central Asia. Russia would also have to pull forces back from South Ossetia and Akhbazia and cease its support to the seperatist movements there.
2) Acceptance of war guilt by the Russian state.
3) Turning over of former President Vladimir Putin for an international trial on the following charges. Russian war crimes included; Starting a war of aggression; deliberate targeting of civilians; cruel and inhumane treatment of POWs; use of chemical weapons (by proxy); taking of hostages, and using civilians as shields.
4) Demilitarisation of Kaliningrad.
5) No Russian involvement in the affairs of post-Lukashenko Belarus or the post-liberation Baltic States.
6) No Russian membership of any military alliance whatsoever without approval from the UNSC for the next ten years.
7) Release of all POWs from Russian custody.
8) Reparations to be made in the form of oil and natural gas shipments to European states.

In return, NATO would grant the following;
1) Return of Kaliningrad and Sakhalin to the Russian government.
2) Release of all POWs not charged with major war crimes.
3) No renewal of offensive operations against Russian forces.

Begrudgingly, Gerasimov accepted the peace terms offered to him. He had expected NATO’s demands to be harsh, but as harsh as this. Despite arguments against it, he ultimately was left with no choice when the United States threatened once again to renew operations and destroy whatever was left of Russia’s military and civilian infrastructure. However, Russia did ‘cheat’ on several of the terms. A number of NATO prisoners in Russian custody, those in specialist fields who the GRU believed would hold long-term value, were simply ‘lost’ in the prison system, never to be released in case they could be of use later on.

President Putin would likewise never make it to NATO territory. Plans were already being set into motion by NATO to have the Russians hand him over in Berlin, but before this could happen the former Russian President suffered a fall down three flights of stairs while being moved from his cell (on the second floor of the prison complex he was detained in) to the dining area (only one floor below). During the alleged ‘fall’ Putin suffered a broken back, nose, leg, and both arms, along with several cracked ribs and severe internal bleeding, the last of which killed him within hours of the incident. Tomorrow, a meeting would take place between SACEUR and his Russian counterpart to formalise the peace, and NATO troops would have to secure the Baltics against remnants of pro-Russian seperatist groups and militias, but it looked as though the fighting was over m, for now.

[jfoxx]

It’s an open question what value a demilitarized Kaliningrad has to Russia. A money sink when Russia will be hard up for funds.

[James G]

Jul 5, 2019 21:56:01 GMT jfoxx said:

It’s an open question what value a demilitarized Kaliningrad has to Russia. A money sink when Russia will be hard up for funds.

Zero value. However it is sovereign Russian soil. Every country goes insane over the thought of losing a square inch of territory.

[arrowiv]

I think a referendum should be held in Sakhalin on if they wish to be Russian or Japanese. What about the Kuriles?