Blue Dawn, 1994

[sandyman]

So glad that you have gotten back on the saddle great updates I can just imagine what it will be like when and not if the intel comes out that they have the wrong man.

[gillan1220]

The U.S. would probably make him a prize.

[James G]

Jun 23, 2020 19:34:06 GMT stevep said:

   James G ,

  I wonder if it would have been better for the US if that Green Beret had actually taken that head shot?  A corpse can't contradict what allegations are made about him and given what Gromov's accused of it would be politically very difficult to avoid some sort of public trial.  True no one expects Gromov to admit guilt, especially since US intelligence is now confident he wasn't responsible for the assassination.  However he could raise awkward points that would raise doubts about the US case.  Think he would be especially outraged at the idea that he was co-complicit in the killing with Primakov since its a pretty stupid idea.

  Sounds from your comment in reply to my previous post that things are going to end up very badly for everybody, except possibly the Chinese and assorted Muslim reactionary groups.

  Steve

Maybe, it might have bene the best idea. The orders ran to take him prisoner though.
A war crimes trial could be possible, even handing him over to the post=Primakov regime. It gives the US options.
As suggested by Forcon below, there is always the later 'accident option'.

My mind is ticking over.

Jun 23, 2020 20:55:37 GMT forcon said:

Good work, although I'm surprised that anybody wanted Gromov taken alive. Still, accidents happen, and federal prisons can be dangerous places. What are the chances the guards fall asleep and don't check on him for three hours?

Thank you.
That outcome is possible at a later date... but then many things are.

[James G]

Jun 24, 2020 15:39:51 GMT sandyman said:

So glad that you have gotten back on the saddle great updates I can just imagine what it will be like when and not if the intel comes out that they have the wrong man.

Thank you.
I have many schemes for the nightmare of revelation in the planning! Things are likely to be bad.

Jun 24, 2020 16:13:22 GMT gillan1220 said:

The U.S. would probably make him a prize.

Sending him to The Hague is an option.

[James G]

93 – Public consumption


Canada has suffered near to eleven hundred casualties during the war with the Union of Sovereign States. The dead and injured have come from fighting taking place within the Union and also at sea. The loss of the frigate HMCS Halifax in Arctic waters – one of the Coalition’s very few naval losses – accounts for a good portion of those casualties yet there has been bloody fighting that Canadian ground forces on the frontlines have been involved in around Minsk, near Smolensk and close to Moscow (including that which is taking place today). More Canadian troops, men from the Primary Reserve, are on lines-of-communications security duties through the Baltics and Belarus too: being behind the lines doesn’t mean that they haven’t seen action either. They’ve been getting shot at during ethnic conflicts, engaging enemy stragglers and hunting for hidden & protected stocks of weapons of mass destruction. Of course, eleven hundred is a small figure compared to American casualty numbers, yet… a lot of Canadian blood has been spilt in this conflict. The expense and the political consequences have been quite something too.

On a tele-conference call with President Robb and well as John Major across in London, the man who has taken Canada to war, Prime Minister Jean Chrétien, hits the metaphorical roof when being told that it looks like Primakov, not Gromov, was behind the Kerrey assassination. Canada went to war on a lie. He has taken Canada into the fight too, believing what he was told only a few weeks ago by the Americans. A verbal tirade of abuse comes from Chrétien over the secure link-up with Washington. It isn’t personally directed at Robb but at his administration’s officials. Chrétien says that his premiership is over because the Canadian people will be out for blood. He’ll have to tell them and he’ll be out of office in a flash. His whole government will come down because, with the truth at hand, the public will want him gone.

Britain’s Prime Minister is more restrained. Major is silent when Chrétien is calling Robb’s intelligence people unpleasant names and waits to his counterpart in Ottawa has calmed down before he has something to add. Britain’s casualties are three times those of Canada’s and Major’s country is just as committed to this conflict as its two key allies are. His mind races and he reacts fast.

Major wants to know the source of the new information and asks Robb is he can be sure that this isn’t yet another act of deception by Gromov. Perhaps Gromov has been covering his tracks and while it has come to late to save him, he’s out to take down his mortal enemy: if he can’t have Russia, then Primakov cannot either? Powell is on the call and he assures Major that everything points to Primakov being behind it all and framing Gromov. Robb’s national security advisor says that there is information on its way right this very moment to Britain’s intelligence services detailing what the US Intelligence Community has uncovered. Chrétien is told that this will be shared with him too. With that, Major gives another lengthy pause before asking Robb when does he plan to reveal this all to the world? Major states that he believes they all need to do it together and they need to consider how best to frame it for public consumption.

Well… that is complicated and something still being discussed.


It is a couple of hours later, after Robb has had that meeting with House Speaker Foley and his National Security Council are enamoured by Foley’s speculation, that Chrétien and Major are back with Robb on another call linking the capitals of their three countries. In Ottawa and London, there have been high-level emergency meetings as well. Major has met with the Director of MI-6, a man whose organisation had thoroughly backed the evidence in July which took Britain to war as part of the Coalition which Robb built, to discuss intelligence information forwarded over to them. MI-6 pokes holes in it at once and stand by what they said last month. Gromov’s GRU people killed Kerrey at Camp David and this baloney about some FSB officer travelling all over the world then telling all to the Americans – before disappearing – is a GRU trick.

Talking with Robb, Major is a little more diplomatic than his spy chief is about the belief expressed that the president’s intelligence people are being played for fools. He stands by what he said earlier though and says that he just isn’t fully convinced. Chrétien has also had some time to think and consult with his people. Canada’s intelligence chief has been sent the same as what London has received and he’s been on the wrong end of Chrétien’s rage about this. Chrétien tells Robb that no matter what the circumstances might be, they’ve fought a war with Gromov and Gromov has done all that he has during that conflict. He is not something that Canada can stand by and do nothing about if he is allowed to get away with the war crimes committed. If he and Primakov both have to go down, then Canada will support that but there will be no about face that Chrétien can get behind where suddenly Gromov is a friend.

The three leaders are all in agreement. They are coming at the same matter from different angles but share one desired outcome. None of them wants to see Gromov remain where he is. They don’t all agree that Primakov’s guilt is beyond doubt but when Major is pushed on the issue by Robb and Chrétien, Britain’s PM says that Britain will not stand in the way should the United States wish to take it’s vengeance out on his if they believe him to be as guilty as Washington says. Find out a little more before acting, Major urges though: let’s be sure on this.

Before the second call can come to a conclusion, Robb asks both fellow leaders to stay on the line. He tells then that there is an operation underway which he is waiting upon the results of. They wait. Then comes the news about Operation Fox Hunt. Chrétien and Major are told before the public is and are pleased to see him in custody: him out there on the run possibly trying to gain control over the Union’s nuclear weapons has been a worry. When Robb says that there’ll be a Pentagon announcement as soon as Gromov is at Kubinka, that gives the two prime minister’s the time to alert their press people ready to provide reactions to media questions.


And, so, it comes back again to the matter of telling the public about the belief that Primakov was the one who murdered Robb’s predecessor… They agree to wait. Robb tells them that he is determined to get rid of Primakov and explains a course of action he wishes to follow using one of the re-united Union’s leader’s people to do just that.

He goes further too, telling Chrétien and Major other things that his senior people have decided to do in response to all of this mess with regard to stopping the Union – soon to be Russia – from being the force it once was. These come off the back of things discussed before but now being expanded upon due to the American decision to turn against the Primakov regime with fury.

It is decided then. They will wait just a little while longer. Robb wants the time to allow for punishment to come to Primakov. Major wants the Americans to look a little harder and be sure. Chrétien has put off the disaster he was consumed with a few hours before, hoping that it can go away with Gromov and Primakov both being painted as the guilty parties.

Perhaps they are all grasping at straws, or rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, but there are no public announcements yet about what the Coalition’s leaders know of the real truth why so many have lost their lives in the last twelve days.

[stevep]

   James G ,

  Good reminder that last bit about the fighting having only 12 days.  It seemed much longer given the huge amount of territory seized and damage done to the Union. 

  I'm still dubious about them trying to claim that rival forces were effectively working in co-operation to assassinate the US President.  Can't see it holding water for long and it looks too much like what it is, an attempt to avoid admitting they were fooled.

  Would be interested to see what the US is planning to further reduce the power of the Union/Russia.  Expect its going to include trying to make sure that as many former republics split off from the Union.  Think it would be unwise to try much if anything to restrict Moscow's ability to maintain itself as an independent state, especially any attempt to unilaterally restrict their nuclear power.  Given its going to be suggested, accurately that the attack on Gromov's part of the Union was by error its going to make a lot of Russians very resentful. Wałęsa may survive simply because Russia is the great threat to Polish security and liberty so its reduction in power and distancing from Poland's borders may be seen by many Poles as a worthwhile gain regardles of the human costs of the war.  Other European states, especially those who suffered attacks such as Germany are likely to be less forgiving.  Also I'm not sure what the French reaction will be but there could be a negative one in that they were excluded from the initial revalations, which may be seen as an Anglo-Saxon stitch up. 

  Suspect that Chrétien is right and that politically a number of heads will roll, probably including his.  How Robb and also the US's international reputation and internal cohesion fairs would be key issues as well as whatever happens in Russia and neighbouring states.

  Of course Robb needs to get control of Primakov quickly as with the increasing numbers of people who know the facts it can't be too long before that becomes public or Primakov's people find out about by some means.  Then he's likely to seek to leave Moscow for somewhere more secure and start presenting his case that he's innocent of such an allegation and that the US simply wants to damage Russia/Union further.

  Steve

 

[James G]

Jun 24, 2020 19:50:57 GMT stevep said:

   James G ,

  Good reminder that last bit about the fighting having only 12 days.  It seemed much longer given the huge amount of territory seized and damage done to the Union. 

  I'm still dubious about them trying to claim that rival forces were effectively working in co-operation to assassinate the US President.  Can't see it holding water for long and it looks too much like what it is, an attempt to avoid admitting they were fooled.

  Would be interested to see what the US is planning to further reduce the power of the Union/Russia.  Expect its going to include trying to make sure that as many former republics split off from the Union.  Think it would be unwise to try much if anything to restrict Moscow's ability to maintain itself as an independent state, especially any attempt to unilaterally restrict their nuclear power.  Given its going to be suggested, accurately that the attack on Gromov's part of the Union was by error its going to make a lot of Russians very resentful. Wałęsa may survive simply because Russia is the great threat to Polish security and liberty so its reduction in power and distancing from Poland's borders may be seen by many Poles as a worthwhile gain regardles of the human costs of the war.  Other European states, especially those who suffered attacks such as Germany are likely to be less forgiving.  Also I'm not sure what the French reaction will be but there could be a negative one in that they were excluded from the initial revalations, which may be seen as an Anglo-Saxon stitch up. 

  Suspect that Chrétien is right and that politically a number of heads will roll, probably including his.  How Robb and also the US's international reputation and internal cohesion fairs would be key issues as well as whatever happens in Russia and neighbouring states.

  Of course Robb needs to get control of Primakov quickly as with the increasing numbers of people who know the facts it can't be too long before that becomes public or Primakov's people find out about by some means.  Then he's likely to seek to leave Moscow for somewhere more secure and start presenting his case that he's innocent of such an allegation and that the US simply wants to damage Russia/Union further.

  Steve

 

I went very quickly with the invasion getting far. Minsk was taken in three days and Moscow by Day #9. Fast, very fast... but most of the Union Army in the western republics were still in their barracks. I also write anywhere from 5 to 10 updates covering a single day of war so things seem longer than they are.
The 'sell' with regard to The Truth is going to have as many holes in it as a block of Swiss cheese!
There is things that can be done to the Union to make it nothing like as powerful as it was. I'd fully agree with splitting the republics off but being unable to make it a non-nuclear power. There are other things like destroying intelligence services that would benefit the West. In addition, mentioned a few updates back was that the Americans took over en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarov / aka Arzamas-16. That is in many way's Russia's Los Alamos. There will be other vital strategic facilities that the Coalition has and when they end up back in Union/Russian hands... they'll be stripped bare / destroyed by accident etc.
After all that Poland has suffered in this war at Gromov's hands, Poland's leadership can survive even the absolute full-on truth laid bare and say the Union deserved it. I hadn't considered the French. I was thinking the US would tell Britain and Canada first before moving to Poland, Norway & Eastern European nations. But, thinking on it, they'll want to tell other allies like France, Germany, Israel and others too. I'll need to see what to do with that.
One thing I have considered is that Bush 43 and Blair survived Iraq and no WMDs: each got re-elected even when it was clear to everyone that lies were told, there was a cock-up on an unimaginable scale and no one apologised. Different matter entirely, very much so, but these things to occur.
Primakov will no longer be blind to what is happening. We'll see what's going on with that in the update after the one below. Bare in mind though, he is in Moscow and the city, plus everywhere for hundreds of miles, if full of Coalition forces. An escape to friendly territory would be a big ask... and it might not long be friendly is the American's can co-opt his top regime figures.

[James G]

94 – Security concerns


Late yesterday the fighting around Kotlas had begun. There was continued combat throughout the night and only this morning does it conclude. British Army soldiers with the 19th Light Brigade emerge the victors after engagements with Union marines serving with the 61st Naval Infantry Brigade but the victory is a costly one. The numbers of dead and wounded are in the hundreds. The British didn’t come here for a fight and those marines they clashed with are fighting for a regime that has been deposed. Nonetheless, the Battle of Kotlas has been had. It is now over. Recovering wounded, collecting prisoners and securing weaponry are the tasks that the 19th Light Brigade has. There is still a lot to do with no time to rest.

American air support has now departed. It was their jets who made the real difference here to allow for the enemy to be overcome. The RAF made several appearances throughout the night and more elements of the British 6th Airborne Division arrived this morning, yet it was US Air Force & US Navy aircraft flying from afar which allowed for the British soldiers fighting at Kotlas to avoid the defeat which they could have easily suffered. Dozens of attack missions were flown by American aviators over the Kotlas area where they bombed and strafed the 61st Naval Infantry Brigade to first force them back towards Savatiya Airbase and then pounded them when they were in there. With Kotlas Airport a ruin after a combined massed rocket and gas attack, the 19th Light Brigade had to wait for reinforcements to come to them via land instead of using the airhead that they themselves had. American air strikes kept the enemy pinned down and blasted them to pieces while surrounded. On their own, no matter how much they wanted to, those serving with the 19th Light Brigade’s infantry units at Kotlas (the Light Infantry and Grenadier Guards) wouldn’t have been able to contain pro-Gromov marines in the strength and number which had arrived here in transit from the Urals with a determination not to give up without a fight. Those Union marines were too good. Motivated and well-equipped, as well as battle-hardened, the 61st Naval Infantry Brigade came very close to winning. They weren’t significantly impeded by RAF air strikes and the ground column coming up from Vologda through the night was never going to get here in time.

The 6th Airborne Division’s deputy commander is in Kotlas this morning, here with a senior RAF man too. These two take no responsibility for what happened with the inability of British forces to assist their own in a timely fashion. There is a blame game going on with no one wanting that to fall upon them. The brigadier commanding the 19th Light Brigade, who came here with only two-thirds of his command yesterday, but under orders which he didn’t agree with to do that, can already see how this is going to go in the future. He and his men will be blamed for the near catastrophe. To think that anyone higher up the command chain, those who made the idiotic decisions, will be the ones held responsible is foolish.

The Battle of Kotlas will not be remembered as one of the British Armed Force’s finest moments of this conflict.


Generals McCaffrey & Maddox are still pushing for the White House to reveal all about the real reason behind the start of this war that their soldiers are fighting in. The commanders of EURCOM and the Seventh United States Army are uniformed military officers and have no role in politics yet each man believes that the situation cannot continue without the truth behind the Kerrey assassination being out there. How that is to be done and the consequences is sure to be complicated but there is a duty to those uniform that each feels is something necessary. Washington has yet to clarify that matter though. Orders come down from Nunn at the Pentagon are for continued forward progress to be made on the battlefield of Western Russia. American-led Coalition forces are to carry on advancing forward as they are doing and engaging pro-Gromov forces where those are encountered. Operation Flaming Phoenix has brought down Gromov’s regime though there are still scattered enemy who will fight for him. In addition, when told about the issue with Primakov now being believed responsible for killing America’s forty-second president, those instructions come that there are to be moves made to prepare for a fight with those aligned with that man who has just been installed back in Moscow. Primakov’s armies are moving over the Urals. Towards them McCaffrey has Maddox send Coalition tanks. The two missions – mopping up Gromov loyalists and preparing to fight Primakov’s armies if necessary – are presented to everyone else as one in the same.

The advance eastwards continues through today with the official position being that due to ‘legitimate security concerns’ – which is true – that needs to occur. With almost no one in the way to impede the seizing of more Union territory west of the Urals, there is a rush of Coalition forces moving deeper and deeper into the interior of Russia. Neither the armies of Napoleon nor Hitler went this far: only Genghis Khan’s armies (going in the other direction) have beforehand made such a penetration.

The US III Corps is out front. From the Gorki area, they go into the semi-autonomous republics of Chuvashia and Mari El. The cities of Cheboksary and Yoshkar-Ola aren’t directly entered by the Americans moving forward and neither is Kazan when Tatarstan is reached either. Two Cav’ regiments (the 3rd & 11th) lead the progress of the III Corps with the River Volga being no barrier for further penetration inside Tatarstan past Kazan. Columns of tanks, armoured vehicles and trucks stretch all the way back to Gorki. Transport helicopters, CH-47 Chinooks and UH-60 Black Hawks, airlift forward scouts and engineers to keep the way ahead open. There is no one to oppose this. Troops raised from the ranks of reservists within Tatarstan wouldn’t have provided anything more than a speedbump but they step aside under the orders of the Tatarstan civilian authorities. Those politicians in Kazan who threw their lot in with Primakov the day before yesterday to help sink the Gromov regime are unsure of what is going on but there is no one in authority to tell them from their ‘own side’. The Americans keep talking of their security concerns as they cross Tatarstan and Kazan offers no resistance. In addition, flanking forces with the III Corps on the right spend today crossing the Republic of Mordovia and go through there – ignoring the city of Saransk – to reach Ulyanovsk on the Volga downstream from Kazan.

To their right, the Polish II Corps reaches Penza. They are under Seventh US Army command too. From here the Poles make a turn to the southeast. Tolyatti and Samara are directly to the east but they make the turn that they do under orders to go down towards Saratov and thus the Volga there too. Far away to the north, on the other side of where the Americans are pushing into Tatarstan, the British I Corps is underway. They are on their way to Kirov. It will be somewhere that they will not reach today due to the logistical strain of going so far forward as they do yet it doesn’t look unreachable: it is just taking a bit longer than expected. Maddox has the US V Corps moving away from the Moscow area too, following the route taken by the III Corps in previous days to get to Gorki. The intention is for the V Corps to break away from the Volga Highway outside of that city and then go towards the Volga at Tolyatti. Like the British on the left flank, things are taking time to get them all moving through the challenges met with mass movement of heavy forces across the middle of Western Russia but they are underway.

The victorious Coalition ground forces which wiped out Gromov’s armies are heading towards Primakov’s.


In the skies above, flying higher than helicopters on airlift and armed escort missions, there are Coalition combat aircraft flying fighter patrols and on-hand ready to deliver close air support if that is needed. They are operating from captured bases throughout the Union and have complete control of the skies. Pro-Gromov forces who refuse to give in might have ground units to contest Coalition forces in a few isolated spots – and they are run through without mercy – but up above, there is no sign of that doomed resistance. Primakov’s aircraft are in the skies this side of the Urals though. MiGs & Sukhois adorned with Red Stars on their tails are flying out ahead of ground forces moving through the Urals’ passes as what is left of the Union Army reunites as one across the Perm Oblast and the Republic of Bashkortostan. The opening battles of the Union’s civil war were fought many months ago across the ground below – before Primakov’s forces were pushed back over the Urals – and now, as it was then, the Novosibirsk regime has its aircraft in these skies. AWACS operators and intelligence sources identify those aircraft out of Siberia as not being hostile but they aren’t being called ‘friendly’ either.

Coalition fighters, primarily American ones, fly in close proximity to them. There are interceptions done of these MiGs & Sukhois as Coalition aircraft meet them as far eastwards as possible. No shots are exchanged but there is aggressive manoeuvring and radar lock-ons. Such things are expected with fighter pilot’s temperaments and historic animosity yet it isn’t something that has been seen for a while. It is happening now though. While the Americans continue to talk of security concerns as being behind the behaviour of their pilots to try to force (without resorting to opening fire) those Union aircraft to stay as far east as possible, senior officers within Primakov’s air force can at once tell something has changed. The pattern of behaviour is blatant aggression in an organised fashion. Complaints go all the way to the top, to Novosibirsk’s defence minister. Marshal Shaposhnikov is informed of this and told too by his army generals that they don’t like what they are seeing with regards to the Seventh US Army moving towards them. Aerial observation is denied of that but they have other sources of intelligence: there is no doubt that a huge foreign force is reaching, and going over the Volga, to seize territory – that in the heart of the Rodina – ahead of them!

They ask if Primakov is aware of what is going on with, in the opinion of those in uniform, their supposed allies acting like enemies in the making. Shaposhnikov gives them an answer to that.

[dunois]

One positive of this conflict is that there might be Marshall Plan of sorts for the former Union TTL.
I hope that there will be honest and transparents referendums in Ukraine and Belarus about them remaining in the Union. Ending up with a "Triune Union" that has to give equal weight and representations to Russia, Ukraine and Belarus could be an interesting outcome.

[stevep]

   James G , 

  I was thinking there might be some 'blue on blue' incidents in the air with US and former Soviet fighters which would be genuine accidents but it sounds like the news about who killed Kerrey is leaking out to lower levels.  If not the aggressive attitude being mentioned for the US pilots would be pretty stupid as the other a/c are still technically allies.  Albeit there is likely to be some distrust.

  The fact that the western alliance is grabbing land and assets as quickly as possible is something that would be making Primakov suspicious as it otherwise makes no sense.  Its probably also making a fair number of Russians resentful as regardless of other details they will be seen as an occupying force.  Especially when the US openly moves against Primakov.  At which a lot of Russians could well see them as enemies whether they support Primakov  or not.  I notice that those Tartar units stood aside, not down and there could be problems, given how widely spread the coalition forces are with a lot of unrest and obstructions deep behind their lines.

  Depending on what is said and other activities going on but the US could find a number of its allies withdrawing from the coalition if their calling for a war on Primakov's faction rather than just the man himself.  Doubt Britain or Poland will but other countries might deny facilities to the US for such an action.

  Steve

[gillan1220]

So only the West succeeded what Napoleon and Hitler couldn't.

[stevep]

Jun 26, 2020 10:55:37 GMT gillan1220 said:

So only the West succeeded what Napoleon and Hitler couldn't.

  It depends on what you classify as success.  Their gone further than either of those but there's a hell of a lot of Russia, even the more populated areas still left.  Plus there is a big difference between taking and holding, or setting a friendly government in place.  That's going to be the really difficult and I fear more bloody process.

  Plus the reason for the war was to avenge the murder of President Kerrey and while they have effectively removed Gromov they have now realised he was innocent, at least of that.  They can remove Primakov fairly easily but they seem to have wider aims or may think that just removing him and leaving people allied to him in power is something they can't accept.

[stevep]

Jun 25, 2020 20:25:56 GMT dunois said:

One positive of this conflict is that there might be Marshall Plan of sorts for the former Union TTL.
I hope that there will be honest and transparents referendums in Ukraine and Belarus about them remaining in the Union. Ending up with a "Triune Union" that has to give equal weight and representations to Russia, Ukraine and Belarus could be an interesting outcome.

  Good idea.  Possibly for any states that break away.  Probably especially for the Baltics to help them recover from their occupation by the Soviets.  Announcing such an idea before any referendums in Ukraine and Belarus may be seen as a bribe attempt so there are issues to be considered there.  Also they may want to apply clear strings so that an 'elected' autocrat doesn't gain access.

  There is an issue, especially if the US manages to get Primakov removed of whether Russia might have a moral claim for reparations since the allied forces have, apart from military and civilian deaths, done a hell of a lot of damage to western Russia especially without as its turning out a moral basis for this.  This might be a factor in why Robb seems to be seeking to blame Gromov as well as Primakov for the assassination as it would legitimise the invasion.

[gillan1220]

Jun 26, 2020 11:15:21 GMT stevep said:

Jun 26, 2020 10:55:37 GMT gillan1220 said:

So only the West succeeded what Napoleon and Hitler couldn't.

  It depends on what you classify as success.  Their gone further than either of those but there's a hell of a lot of Russia, even the more populated areas still left.  Plus there is a big difference between taking and holding, or setting a friendly government in place.  That's going to be the really difficult and I fear more bloody process.

  Plus the reason for the war was to avenge the murder of President Kerrey and while they have effectively removed Gromov they have now realised he was innocent, at least of that.  They can remove Primakov fairly easily but they seem to have wider aims or may think that just removing him and leaving people allied to him in power is something they can't accept.

Imagine the political fall out resulting that the whole war was based on trick.

[stevep]

Jun 26, 2020 12:06:44 GMT gillan1220 said:

Jun 26, 2020 11:15:21 GMT stevep said:

  It depends on what you classify as success.  Their gone further than either of those but there's a hell of a lot of Russia, even the more populated areas still left.  Plus there is a big difference between taking and holding, or setting a friendly government in place.  That's going to be the really difficult and I fear more bloody process.

  Plus the reason for the war was to avenge the murder of President Kerrey and while they have effectively removed Gromov they have now realised he was innocent, at least of that.  They can remove Primakov fairly easily but they seem to have wider aims or may think that just removing him and leaving people allied to him in power is something they can't accept.

Imagine the political fall out resulting that the whole war was based on trick.

  It's going to be very, very nasty, both inside the US and allied nations and outside.  Chrétien is probably very accurate that his career as PM of Canada or as a politician at all is over and he might well not be the only one.  Even if the US is believed, which they probably won't be in most of Russia and a number of other unfriendly states, there's going to be a lot less trust in their decision making and actions.  You might even see a few nations deciding to leave NATO, at least to the degree the French did for a period under de Gaulle.  [Especially since the Russian threat is going to be substantially reduced for a while at least.

  It doesn't help that having been genuinely fooled their now trying to peddle what their pretty certain is a lie and a fairly transparent one as well.  If they push that too far it could have very bad consequences.  As I've said before there are no good choices but I'm doubtful that Robb has made the right one.