James G
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Post by James G on Jun 27, 2020 18:31:45 GMT
One positive of this conflict is that there might be Marshall Plan of sorts for the former Union TTL. I hope that there will be honest and transparents referendums in Ukraine and Belarus about them remaining in the Union. Ending up with a "Triune Union" that has to give equal weight and representations to Russia, Ukraine and Belarus could be an interesting outcome. I would suspect that anything like that would cover, at least, the Baltics and probably Georgia... maybe whatever I can dream up for the future of Kaliningrad too. It could involve Belarus and the Ukraine too. People power and then Coalition tanks brought down the pro-Moscow regimes in Kiev and Minsk. Soon enough though, 'old hands' have taken power. They were able to sort out local security allowing for Coalition forces to move on: these people are Primakov supporters. That will make things interesting... The Union itself, before Lebed, was supposed to be very equal. Belarus, Kazakhstan and the Ukraine had powerful leaders who were able to be the tail wagging the dog: having serious influence over Russia. It didn't work. Whether a true Union could re-emerge is unlikely based on the recent memories of that. Russia is always going to be very powerful too compared to its smaller neighbours.
I was thinking there might be some 'blue on blue' incidents in the air with US and former Soviet fighters which would be genuine accidents but it sounds like the news about who killed Kerrey is leaking out to lower levels. If not the aggressive attitude being mentioned for the US pilots would be pretty stupid as the other a/c are still technically allies. Albeit there is likely to be some distrust.
The fact that the western alliance is grabbing land and assets as quickly as possible is something that would be making Primakov suspicious as it otherwise makes no sense. Its probably also making a fair number of Russians resentful as regardless of other details they will be seen as an occupying force. Especially when the US openly moves against Primakov. At which a lot of Russians could well see them as enemies whether they support Primakov or not. I notice that those Tartar units stood aside, not down and there could be problems, given how widely spread the coalition forces are with a lot of unrest and obstructions deep behind their lines.
Depending on what is said and other activities going on but the US could find a number of its allies withdrawing from the coalition if their calling for a war on Primakov's faction rather than just the man himself. Doubt Britain or Poland will but other countries might deny facilities to the US for such an action.
Steve
American air commanders haven't been told the truth but the very top military people have. They are sending orders down the line encouraging this. The lie about 'security concerns' is behind this but there is still the history issue, yes. Oh, and there are still a whole load of Americans east of the Urals in a whole world of hurt if things go too far there. The advance is officially being done to chase down pro-Gromov hold-outs... and there are very few of them! Primakov isn't fully aware of what is happening though: he's in Moscow. Across Western Russia, there are military units like those in Tatarstan who've stood aside. The long, difficult supply lines for Coalition forces have potential enemies all around them. There is a likelihood of many countries doing just that: pulling out of the war. Yet, as long as the major ones stay in, and other go from allies to annoyed, not to enemies, that situation will be difficult but not fatal at this stage. So only the West succeeded what Napoleon and Hitler couldn't. Logistics made that possible! So did a nice and short Summer campaign.
Good idea. Possibly for any states that break away. Probably especially for the Baltics to help them recover from their occupation by the Soviets. Announcing such an idea before any referendums in Ukraine and Belarus may be seen as a bribe attempt so there are issues to be considered there. Also they may want to apply clear strings so that an 'elected' autocrat doesn't gain access.
There is an issue, especially if the US manages to get Primakov removed of whether Russia might have a moral claim for reparations since the allied forces have, apart from military and civilian deaths, done a hell of a lot of damage to western Russia especially without as its turning out a moral basis for this. This might be a factor in why Robb seems to be seeking to blame Gromov as well as Primakov for the assassination as it would legitimise the invasion.
There would likely be a European effort, alongside the Americans, to heavily provide aid for the Baltics at the very least. Reparations would be an interesting one to claim for! Imagine the political fall out resulting that the whole war was based on trick. It depends upon how the trickery is 'solved'. The best thing for Robb to do would to be full and frank with the whole world the moment it was all uncovered. The turmoil though... It probably wouldn't have just meant his resignation but a complete, negative, about-turn in US relations with the rest of the world. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Jun 27, 2020 18:32:56 GMT
95 – Isolated
Primakov has been back in Moscow for several days now. He is in the capital of the Union of Sovereign States and trying to put it all back together again. The civil war has concluded and the invasion by the Coalition has brought down Gromov’s regime. Now is the time to deal with the future. The country which he rules over will not be the same as it was back in February. That is regrettable yet Primakov believes that he can build something better in its place. His intention is to see this new Union emerge from the ashes of the old one. It is going to take much work but Primakov has thrown himself into it.
Democratically elected as the Prime Minister of the Russian Republic, the powerbase for Primakov before the death of Lebed had been the Russian Parliament. Gromov shut the Duma down and sent the members away. Primakov is now trying to restore that. His announced amnesty covers all those involved on the wrong side of the civil war including parliamentarians who gave their support for Gromov’s illegal regime even when shut out. Over in Novosibirsk, a rump parliament sat there but their ‘home’ is back at the Moscow White House where Primakov intends to see them return to. He is aiming to have proceedings begin next week with the Duma once more confirming his legitimacy as Acting President of Russia and therefore the leader of the Union as well. His attention is on other domestic matters too such as the security situation on Moscow’s streets and extending his rule to more cities which are under the control of Coalition forces including Leningrad. Primakov would like to see nationwide elections if not late this year then early next year. He intends to run for the presidency and make his rule official. That will be done on the back of a popular vote and he aims to ‘win’… regardless of what people might actually vote for.
He who leads Russia, rules the Union.
The Union is a federation though with the many former Soviet republics part of it. So many have left and Primakov accepts that those republics are gone for good. However, there is still the ‘core’ which he wishes to see remain: Russia alongside Belarus and the Ukraine. People protests and American tanks brought down the pro-Gromov regimes in Minsk and Kiev but there are post-revolt leaders in both cities who are onboard for a restoration of the Union. They are going to force that issue too, damn the feelings of their citizens. Primakov wants to make sure that the semi-autonomous republics in Southern Russia are kept within Russia too when there are ongoing separatist movements. Monitoring the progress of how this is all going, and finding the right way to ensure that what he wants to happen does, is likewise taking Primakov’s attention. Throughout the civil war, while he headed the Novosibirsk regime out in Siberia and claimed Union-wide legitimacy, Primakov has generally left military affairs to his generals. He is an administrator. From overseas, there were always negative comments made about his control over the intelligence services – the FSB especially – but Primakov left the day-to-day management of them to those who know better too. Politics is where his heart is and through that, rather than force of arms, he is trying to reform the Union.
On Moscow’s streets, there are American soldiers.
The US Army’s XVIII Airborne Corps occupies the city (and its outskirts) and their presence is widespread. There are three combat divisions – the 24th Infantry and the 82nd & 101st Airborne Divisions – as well as smaller combat forces including the 198th Infantry Brigade (the old Berlin Brigade) and national guardsmen from both the 27th & 69th Infantry Brigades too. Alongside them, the XVIII Corps has non-combat troops with engineers, signallers, supply troops and military police throughout Moscow. Add in separate air forces personnel and there are over a hundred thousand of them present. They have control of military sites and transport links as well as conducting patrols throughout their operational area where they are brushing up against civilians while hunting for pro-Gromov insurgents. They control Moscow with their on-the-ground presence. Primakov has the Kremlin, the White House and a few other places and there are limited numbers of troops allied to him, but the Americans are the ones calling the shots. Arguing their ‘security concerns’, they control access in and out of Moscow. This has meant to the restriction on access for the Primakov regime to only Moscow’s Vnukovo Airport (other air facilities have been destroyed or are in American hands) and the closing of road access to soldiers loyal to him.
Yet, Primakov knows the Americans won’t want to be here for long. He’s seen the coverage of American domestic politics where there have been calls for a withdrawal to begin now that ‘the war is won’. Many of those US soldiers are guarding substantial numbers of Union military prisoners too. Keeping the POWs contained means providing medical care and feeding them too. There is no way that they want to do that for any length of time. He’s already made an offer, when the US Secretary of State Blanchard was here, for the legitimate Union administration to take charge of those prisoners. There are some that the Americans want to prosecute for war crimes, he conceded, but Primakov told Blanchard that the Union will take over custody of everyone else to ease the burden. It is only right that his regime do this: he is an ally of the Coalition after all in fighting to depose the usurper who killed the American’s president! Primakov is waiting on a response to what.
The scale of the American military presence inside Moscow, around it and throughout so much of Western Russia means that Primakov is in many ways isolated in Moscow.
He understood that that would be the case when he arrived back in the national capital after flying from Siberia but knew then that the Gromov regime was about to fall. The conclusion of the civil war would open up the Urals so that his armies could then come westwards. Staying in Novosibirsk after Gromov’s rule of Moscow had been brought to an end, leaving the Kremlin devoid of his physical presence, wasn’t something that Primakov saw as the best idea. However, since his arrival, Primakov has been faced with communication difficulties while in Moscow. War damage due to Coalition attacks where they struck at everything with military value across areas of the Union then under Gromov’s control is extensive. With air strikes and Tomahawks, they blew apart anything that they had a mind to. This means that Primakov is having trouble staying in contact with everyone that he needs to.
Continued flare-ups with those still willing to fight and die for Gromov exasperate these problems. The Americans are telling Primakov about these ‘security concerns’ of theirs and that means that there is a delay in bringing into Moscow more troops loyal to him. Military forces across Western Russia who switched their allegiance at the last minute and airborne troops from over in Siberia waiting on an airlift haven’t arrived in Moscow nor reached elsewhere either. This isn’t something that Primakov has ignored. It is a matter of concern and one that he has raised with his senior-most military man. Marshal Shaposhnikov tells him – over an interrupted call due to those communications difficulties – that the Americans are doing more than expected in their quest to eliminate all traces of Gromov’s regime but there is no need to be concerned. He and STAVKA are aware of what is going on and they are keeping an eye on what the Americans are up to. Primakov is assured that there is nothing to be really concerned about: within a few months, despite what they are doing now, there will be no American troops on Union soil. Shaposhnikov tells him not to worry about it all with everything sure to be resolved soon enough.
Primakov has these words of assurance from Shaposhnikov. He is content with them and busy with other matters. Matters of great importance going on elsewhere in the world outside the Moscow in which he is in so many ways are a prisoner are not things he is currently aware of.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 28, 2020 9:38:51 GMT
One positive of this conflict is that there might be Marshall Plan of sorts for the former Union TTL. I hope that there will be honest and transparents referendums in Ukraine and Belarus about them remaining in the Union. Ending up with a "Triune Union" that has to give equal weight and representations to Russia, Ukraine and Belarus could be an interesting outcome. I would suspect that anything like that would cover, at least, the Baltics and probably Georgia... maybe whatever I can dream up for the future of Kaliningrad too. It could involve Belarus and the Ukraine too. People power and then Coalition tanks brought down the pro-Moscow regimes in Kiev and Minsk. Soon enough though, 'old hands' have taken power. They were able to sort out local security allowing for Coalition forces to move on: these people are Primakov supporters. That will make things interesting... The Union itself, before Lebed, was supposed to be very equal. Belarus, Kazakhstan and the Ukraine had powerful leaders who were able to be the tail wagging the dog: having serious influence over Russia. It didn't work. Whether a true Union could re-emerge is unlikely based on the recent memories of that. Russia is always going to be very powerful too compared to its smaller neighbours.
I was thinking there might be some 'blue on blue' incidents in the air with US and former Soviet fighters which would be genuine accidents but it sounds like the news about who killed Kerrey is leaking out to lower levels. If not the aggressive attitude being mentioned for the US pilots would be pretty stupid as the other a/c are still technically allies. Albeit there is likely to be some distrust.
The fact that the western alliance is grabbing land and assets as quickly as possible is something that would be making Primakov suspicious as it otherwise makes no sense. Its probably also making a fair number of Russians resentful as regardless of other details they will be seen as an occupying force. Especially when the US openly moves against Primakov. At which a lot of Russians could well see them as enemies whether they support Primakov or not. I notice that those Tartar units stood aside, not down and there could be problems, given how widely spread the coalition forces are with a lot of unrest and obstructions deep behind their lines.
Depending on what is said and other activities going on but the US could find a number of its allies withdrawing from the coalition if their calling for a war on Primakov's faction rather than just the man himself. Doubt Britain or Poland will but other countries might deny facilities to the US for such an action.
Steve
American air commanders haven't been told the truth but the very top military people have. They are sending orders down the line encouraging this. The lie about 'security concerns' is behind this but there is still the history issue, yes. Oh, and there are still a whole load of Americans east of the Urals in a whole world of hurt if things go too far there. The advance is officially being done to chase down pro-Gromov hold-outs... and there are very few of them! Primakov isn't fully aware of what is happening though: he's in Moscow. Across Western Russia, there are military units like those in Tatarstan who've stood aside. The long, difficult supply lines for Coalition forces have potential enemies all around them. There is a likelihood of many countries doing just that: pulling out of the war. Yet, as long as the major ones stay in, and other go from allies to annoyed, not to enemies, that situation will be difficult but not fatal at this stage. So only the West succeeded what Napoleon and Hitler couldn't. Logistics made that possible! So did a nice and short Summer campaign.
Good idea. Possibly for any states that break away. Probably especially for the Baltics to help them recover from their occupation by the Soviets. Announcing such an idea before any referendums in Ukraine and Belarus may be seen as a bribe attempt so there are issues to be considered there. Also they may want to apply clear strings so that an 'elected' autocrat doesn't gain access.
There is an issue, especially if the US manages to get Primakov removed of whether Russia might have a moral claim for reparations since the allied forces have, apart from military and civilian deaths, done a hell of a lot of damage to western Russia especially without as its turning out a moral basis for this. This might be a factor in why Robb seems to be seeking to blame Gromov as well as Primakov for the assassination as it would legitimise the invasion.
There would likely be a European effort, alongside the Americans, to heavily provide aid for the Baltics at the very least. Reparations would be an interesting one to claim for! Imagine the political fall out resulting that the whole war was based on trick. It depends upon how the trickery is 'solved'. The best thing for Robb to do would to be full and frank with the whole world the moment it was all uncovered. The turmoil though... It probably wouldn't have just meant his resignation but a complete, negative, about-turn in US relations with the rest of the world.
Fully agree on this last bit. I notice that Shaposhnikov is the man the US intelligence people were contacting so it sounds like he's willing to help betray Primakov, presumably with the intention of securing the top job for himself. [Although its possible he's a nationalist who just wants the devastation over and peace to return so Russia/Union can start to recover in which case his price for his support might be different]. Of course this depends on exactly what negotiations are going on between the US and Shaposhnikov . For instance the latter might be preparing a move against the FSB, both because the would be popular with the US, especially if it gave information confirming Primakov's guilt and to clear out a potential Primakov stronghold that could cause him problems in the future. Plus there might be some bargaining going on in terms of what's happening to Belarus, Ukraine and other areas.
I suspect Robb's best bet, once he's talked things over with whoever his VP is, would be to have things timed so that when everything is ready Primakov is arrested in Moscow and he very quickly follows up with a press broadcast admitting that his administration was fooled and hence, following Truman's old adage, he his taking full responsibility and resigning. That would probably take a lot of the heat and poison out of a the resultant controversy and he could win some respect as well. Such a move would I believe cause far less damage to the US position in the world than trying to cling on to the idea that Gromov was actually involved to give a fig leaf of legitimacy for the attack on his part of the union.
Steve
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James G
Squadron vice admiral
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Post by James G on Jun 28, 2020 18:51:33 GMT
I would suspect that anything like that would cover, at least, the Baltics and probably Georgia... maybe whatever I can dream up for the future of Kaliningrad too. It could involve Belarus and the Ukraine too. People power and then Coalition tanks brought down the pro-Moscow regimes in Kiev and Minsk. Soon enough though, 'old hands' have taken power. They were able to sort out local security allowing for Coalition forces to move on: these people are Primakov supporters. That will make things interesting... The Union itself, before Lebed, was supposed to be very equal. Belarus, Kazakhstan and the Ukraine had powerful leaders who were able to be the tail wagging the dog: having serious influence over Russia. It didn't work. Whether a true Union could re-emerge is unlikely based on the recent memories of that. Russia is always going to be very powerful too compared to its smaller neighbours. American air commanders haven't been told the truth but the very top military people have. They are sending orders down the line encouraging this. The lie about 'security concerns' is behind this but there is still the history issue, yes. Oh, and there are still a whole load of Americans east of the Urals in a whole world of hurt if things go too far there. The advance is officially being done to chase down pro-Gromov hold-outs... and there are very few of them! Primakov isn't fully aware of what is happening though: he's in Moscow. Across Western Russia, there are military units like those in Tatarstan who've stood aside. The long, difficult supply lines for Coalition forces have potential enemies all around them. There is a likelihood of many countries doing just that: pulling out of the war. Yet, as long as the major ones stay in, and other go from allies to annoyed, not to enemies, that situation will be difficult but not fatal at this stage. Logistics made that possible! So did a nice and short Summer campaign. There would likely be a European effort, alongside the Americans, to heavily provide aid for the Baltics at the very least. Reparations would be an interesting one to claim for! It depends upon how the trickery is 'solved'. The best thing for Robb to do would to be full and frank with the whole world the moment it was all uncovered. The turmoil though... It probably wouldn't have just meant his resignation but a complete, negative, about-turn in US relations with the rest of the world.
Fully agree on this last bit. I notice that Shaposhnikov is the man the US intelligence people were contacting so it sounds like he's willing to help betray Primakov, presumably with the intention of securing the top job for himself. [Although its possible he's a nationalist who just wants the devastation over and peace to return so Russia/Union can start to recover in which case his price for his support might be different]. Of course this depends on exactly what negotiations are going on between the US and Shaposhnikov . For instance the latter might be preparing a move against the FSB, both because the would be popular with the US, especially if it gave information confirming Primakov's guilt and to clear out a potential Primakov stronghold that could cause him problems in the future. Plus there might be some bargaining going on in terms of what's happening to Belarus, Ukraine and other areas.
I suspect Robb's best bet, once he's talked things over with whoever his VP is, would be to have things timed so that when everything is ready Primakov is arrested in Moscow and he very quickly follows up with a press broadcast admitting that his administration was fooled and hence, following Truman's old adage, he his taking full responsibility and resigning. That would probably take a lot of the heat and poison out of a the resultant controversy and he could win some respect as well. Such a move would I believe cause far less damage to the US position in the world than trying to cling on to the idea that Gromov was actually involved to give a fig leaf of legitimacy for the attack on his part of the union.
Steve
Shaposhnikov is the one they want. They didn't just pick his name at random: there is a reason. But... will he want to play ball? He'll be betraying his country, acting for a traditional enemy. We're coming to that soon. The VP position is still vacant. Bob Graham's Senate confirmation still isn't done. There is no way now that this 'ideal' situation is going to happen even if there was a VP. Too much has happened now to admit the truth. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Jun 28, 2020 18:52:54 GMT
96 – Is he ours?
The day after the Robb Administration informs wartime allies such as Britain and Canada about new revelations which have come about concerning the Kerrey assassination, further Coalition partners in the conflict with the Union are told. The heads of governments in these further countries being informed aren’t told the exact same thing as those in London and Ottawa were yesterday.
Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland took Norway into this war against the wishes of many in her nation. Norway has fought alongside its traditional allies when other European countries haven’t done so and many Norwegians wanted to follow that expressed neutrality. The cause was one that Brundtland believed was right though. The Union under Lebed was a menace but Gromov’s actions had been outrageous. Deposing him for murdering the American president was the right thing for Norway to be a part of. Calls from domestic political opponents to limit Norwegian involvement to just the opening of military bases to American and British forces taking part in Operation Flaming Phoenix had been strong yet Brundtland had taken the decision to send Norway’s own military forces into action too. She hadn’t wanted to have Norway half in, half out of this war… and certainly not stand aside and so nothing when her country’s neighbour had committed such an infamous act.
Robb today tells Brundtland that the United States now believes that Primakov had a role in the slaying of his predecessor alongside that of the Gromov regime. Brundtland has many questions? Where are the Americans getting this from? How long have they known? What does Robb intend to do about this? Listening in on the trans-Atlantic call from Washington to Oslo are the top people in Brundtland’s cabinet. The connection is muted while hasty discussions are had in the Norwegian capital. Robb waits for Brundtland to come back on the line. He is then told what Norway is going to in light of this situation.
Brundtland has spoken before about Norway’s wish to remove its forces on the ground inside the North-West of Russia and she believes that now is the time for that to begin. Those troops and aircraft on Union soil will begin to leave with their responsibilities in occupying part of the Kola region handed over to other Coalition forces. She wants that ship, the USS La Salle which is still in the sheltered waters of the Porsangerfjorden, to leave as well. Now is the time for it and its cargo of confiscated Union nuclear weapons – a presence which has been causing many problems for Brundtland on the domestic political front – to leave. Norway is going to scale back other Coalition commitments too. There will be no closing of access to Coalition forces making use of Norwegian military bases but Brundtland says that she no longer sees the need for as much use of them as there has previously been: captured facilities in the Kola are plentiful.
Such is Norway’s reaction to being told what even isn’t the full truth. Norway is stepping away. Brundtland and her government hear what Robb tells them and believe that their nation no longer should be a part of this anymore in light of what the PM’s ministers tell her is an absolute mess. They are doing this in their own way without making a major fuss, but Norway is out.
Robb Administration officials give the same message to the Czechs, Hungarians & Slovaks too: they say that upon further investigation of the circumstances behind the killing of Kerrey back on July 4th, it looks like Primakov was involved too. In Prague, Budapest and Bratislava, that reaction from Oslo isn’t repeated. The prime ministers of these countries in Eastern Europe don’t at once decide that the smartest thing would be to do would be to walk away like the Norwegians are. Hearing this isn’t the craziest thing that has happened during this war. Moreover, neither of them fearful of the immediate political consequences of all of this. They understand that this is a big deal yet don’t start running away as they weigh up the consequences… and wait to see what their Visegrád Group partner, Poland, will do.
Blanchard is in Warsaw and he speaks with President Wałęsa in person ahead of Robb’s call to him. Wałęsa tells the US Secretary of State that it is a Gromov trick. This is his immediate reaction to the idea that Primakov could have played them all for fools. He doesn’t want to listen to anything that the Americans try to present to him, even when there is effort made to tie both Gromov and Primakov together in something that Norwegians are going along with. Wałęsa will not listen. Gromov is guilty of killing Kerrey and it is something he believed from the very moment he heard about the assassination that fateful day last month. Now Gromov, even after he has been deposed and captured, is trying to get away with what he has done. Wałęsa will have none of that.
Such an attitude is unexpected. Blanchard and Robb have been anticipating Wałęsa making this a big issue but they have misjudged Poland’s leader. This conversation with revelations which Wałęsa doesn’t wish to talk about come on the back of other ongoing issue with regard to Poland and its participation in the war though. There are things that Poland has been doing that the United States – and other countries (non-Coalition ones) who are aware of them – are far from pleased with and that is what this now is all about.
Polish troops are deep inside Western Russia but also have a strong presence behind the frontlines. They are providing lines-of-communications security and POW guarding throughout the rear. This is vital and Polish assistance is needed to allow for the armies of their Coalition partners to be as far forward as they are. However, at the direction of Wałęsa, Polish activities in some places are beginning to look very imperialist with regard to Lithuania and Kaliningrad. The Lithuanians have very quickly come under the Poles’ thumb. Meanwhile, in the region of Russia between Poland, Lithuania and the Baltic, military authority delegated to the Poles there has seen them behind the organising of civilian authorities. Coalition policy on relations with locals in occupied territory has been a subject of contention among Coalition partners in how things should be done, and improvisation has gone on all over the place. Yet, neither the Americans nor the British like what the Poles are doing in Kaliningrad. They are encouraging independence among the locals and it is clear that that independence will be one that Wałęsa wants to see ending up with Kaliningrad subservient to Poland in the long-run. Polish wartime losses – among civilians especially – have been significant and the country does have its security concerns, but those don’t justify Wałęsa breaking off bits of internationally-recognised Russian territory nor subverting Lithuanian’s returning government-in-exile to suit Polish economic goals.
Worse than this, Poland’s allies believe that Wałęsa has done ‘a North Korea’ with regard to Union nuclear weapons: there is evidence to suggest that Poland has stolen many of them for their own use.
Hundreds of warheads have fallen into Coalition hands throughout the war. They’ve been gained by various means and stored in such places as aboard ships (off Norway and the Crimea too) as well as inside Kaliningrad. Transferring them to the custody of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency has been what Coalition governments have agreed to do with them: they weren’t going to be handed over to Primakov even before investigations uncovered his deception. The Kaliningrad storage site is manned by a mix of Coalition troops but there aren’t as many weapons there as there should be. The Poles have been ‘disappearing’ some of them while shrugging their shoulders in response to questions and Wałęsa asking his allies why they mistrust him. Nothing can be proved for certain but there is a lot of circumstantial evidence that this has been done. Poland still has Cold War era platforms in its arsenal from which such weapons could be mounted from – medium-range ballistic missiles, aircraft pylons & specialist artillery – and it is conceivable that Wałęsa has done what his nation’s communist leader Edward Gierek almost did in the 1970s and made Poland a nuclear power.
Poland’s imperialism and nuclear thefts aren’t something that Robb now pushes for, not at a time like this when Wałęsa firmly sticks by the Coalition as he does: his unexpected behaviour with regard to dismissing the Primakov allegations is helpful in a way they hadn’t foreseen. Blanchard and the president know that Wałęsa will keep the other Eastern European countries onboard. When it is made clear to him that no matter what he thinks, they are blaming Primakov as well as Gromov (this is done very diplomatically) for the Kerrey assassination, Wałęsa doesn’t contest a course of action that the United States wants to see with Primakov gotten rid of.
It is an unsaid quid pro quo: leave Poland to do as it wishes and we will support you in doing what you must.
Getting rid of Primakov for Robb means that he will be eliminated by his own people. Contacts have been opened with Marshal Shaposhnikov with the belief that he is not just in a position to replace Primakov but is minded to do so too. That is what is important: Shaposhnikov wanting to get rid of Primakov and seize the reins of power for himself.
Robb wants to know where does Shaposhnikov stand?
Is he ours?
Powell is in Siberia at the moment finding out whether he is.
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dunois
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Post by dunois on Jun 28, 2020 21:20:57 GMT
Interesting update, good to see that Poland is asserting itself. There could be interesting things taking place in northwest Belarus if its under Polish occupation, there is a significant Polish minority in this area and they're even a majority in some localities.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 29, 2020 10:08:28 GMT
Fully agree on this last bit. I notice that Shaposhnikov is the man the US intelligence people were contacting so it sounds like he's willing to help betray Primakov, presumably with the intention of securing the top job for himself. [Although its possible he's a nationalist who just wants the devastation over and peace to return so Russia/Union can start to recover in which case his price for his support might be different]. Of course this depends on exactly what negotiations are going on between the US and Shaposhnikov . For instance the latter might be preparing a move against the FSB, both because the would be popular with the US, especially if it gave information confirming Primakov's guilt and to clear out a potential Primakov stronghold that could cause him problems in the future. Plus there might be some bargaining going on in terms of what's happening to Belarus, Ukraine and other areas.
I suspect Robb's best bet, once he's talked things over with whoever his VP is, would be to have things timed so that when everything is ready Primakov is arrested in Moscow and he very quickly follows up with a press broadcast admitting that his administration was fooled and hence, following Truman's old adage, he his taking full responsibility and resigning. That would probably take a lot of the heat and poison out of a the resultant controversy and he could win some respect as well. Such a move would I believe cause far less damage to the US position in the world than trying to cling on to the idea that Gromov was actually involved to give a fig leaf of legitimacy for the attack on his part of the union.
Steve
Shaposhnikov is the one they want. They didn't just pick his name at random: there is a reason. But... will he want to play ball? He'll be betraying his country, acting for a traditional enemy. We're coming to that soon. The VP position is still vacant. Bob Graham's Senate confirmation still isn't done. There is no way now that this 'ideal' situation is going to happen even if there was a VP. Too much has happened now to admit the truth.
Ah I was wondering, given how convoluted some of your TLs are, as is real life too often, whether while he seems willing to see Primakov fall he might have other aims.
That's a pity as I think it would be by some way the best for the US and probably most of the world. Think the truth will leak out, probably fairly soon, even if that isn't part of Shaposhnikov's plan, and there will be a markedly stronger reaction against the US I expect.
Anyway see what the new chapter says.
Steve
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 29, 2020 10:27:48 GMT
Interesting update, good to see that Poland is asserting itself. There could be interesting things taking place in northwest Belarus if its under Polish occupation, there is a significant Polish minority in this area and they're even a majority in some localities.
I know there were Polish minorities east of the current border before 1945 and some areas such as the city of Lvov were majority Polish but thought they had all been removed after 45 as part of the ethnic cleansing that occurred then. Remember one book was talking about, a bit further south, a bloody conflict between Poles and Ukrainians that Stalin eventually stopped by stepping in hard and evicted all minorities. [Ironically shortly afterwards there were Ukrainians fleeing to Poland, presumably because Stalin was ruthlessly stamping down hard on national feeling there.]
As such I suspect that there are few Poles in Lithuania or the occupied parts of Belarus. Can't see the Russians in the enclave being that welcoming to being associated with Poland given the traditional hostility between the two nations. Think Wałęsa is digging a hole here for Poland possibly even larger than Robb is for the US.
In terms of the nukes I can see Poland liking the idea and with recent history its understandable but its also going to have political consequences, both now and as the facts become known. Also having weapons is one thing. Being able to maintain let alone replace them is going to be a pain, let alone the political storm that develops.
Its possible, if things don't fall apart for Wałęsa, that you could end up with a Visegrád bloc led by Poland as an at least semi-separate force in Europe. Which is going to complicate matters.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 29, 2020 10:44:13 GMT
Well that complicates matters. I wasn't expecting any of those actions from Wałęsa and as I said to dunois, I can't see it ending well for Poland. It will help the US by clouding matters although hinder it by giving Primakov an additional facilities to caste doubt on the claims he had anything to do with the assassination.
Not surprised that Norway stepped back and would expect others will follow as things get worse depending on exactly what happens. Hope Britain and Canada will be included in this as some point if Robb continues to mess things up but a lot depends on what happens with the Russians themselves as they could make such a move.
Steve
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Post by James G on Jun 29, 2020 19:47:08 GMT
Interesting update, good to see that Poland is asserting itself. There could be interesting things taking place in northwest Belarus if its under Polish occupation, there is a significant Polish minority in this area and they're even a majority in some localities. Thank you. I have Poland certainly asserting themselves though Walsea is doing this on his own. Not sure how many Poles would think about their country being a nuclear power. I crossed Belarus out of my notes on where Poland was doing its little imperialism because I'm not sure they could do it unnoticed/uncared by allies. Belarus might be more trouble than that is worth. In addition, there are a lot of people who'd crossed the border out of Belarus and the Ukraine. Maybe many have made it to Poland leaving those areas with less of an ethnic Polish population?
Ah I was wondering, given how convoluted some of your TLs are, as is real life too often, whether while he seems willing to see Primakov fall he might have other aims.
That's a pity as I think it would be by some way the best for the US and probably most of the world. Think the truth will leak out, probably fairly soon, even if that isn't part of Shaposhnikov's plan, and there will be a markedly stronger reaction against the US I expect.
Anyway see what the new chapter says.
Steve
I cannot see an admittance of wrong doing unless really forced. There are some surprises for the US scheme upcoming!
Well that complicates matters. I wasn't expecting any of those actions from Wałęsa and as I said to dunois, I can't see it ending well for Poland. It will help the US by clouding matters although hinder it by giving Primakov an additional facilities to caste doubt on the claims he had anything to do with the assassination.
Not surprised that Norway stepped back and would expect others will follow as things get worse depending on exactly what happens. Hope Britain and Canada will be included in this as some point if Robb continues to mess things up but a lot depends on what happens with the Russians themselves as they could make such a move.
Steve
Walsea is gambling and playing his own game now! Norway has done the right thing though long-term, should things go to hell, it won't be enough. They are making moves in Siberia and so London & Ottawa will get more of these phone calls from DC where they say "WTF!". |
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Post by James G on Jun 29, 2020 19:53:28 GMT
97 – Eye of the storm
Camp Raven is placed in lockdown. In the midst of a rainstorm, a security incident at this American airbase in Western Siberia sees a full alert against possible intruders. No one is coming in or out until the all-clear is sounded. Communications out are cut-off and there are armed US Air Force personnel everywhere. Union military forces serving under the Novosibirsk regime on the outside aren’t allowed in once the lockdown is announced. A small party of them, including high-level figures, entered Roshchino Airbase near Tyumen before the alarm was sounded though. They are ushered to safety. But… there aren’t no commandos still loyal to Gromov’s deposed regime nearby. This all deception: an American maskirovka.
Primakov’s defence minister, Marshal Shaposhnikov, is inside Camp Raven when the planned panic erupts. He’s here on an inspection tour of a base used of allies and is one of those taken to safety. His closest aides and a certain number of Americans know what is really going on but everyone else is really concerned for the safety of him and the United States’ senior-most general in-country who is present too. Those two are kept safe and left near alone. Moreover, those aboard a US Air Force VIP transport which has just arrived are protected as well. Shaposhnikov, General Wesley Clark and Colin Powell (the unknown VIP) all have no listening ears to what they have all come here to talk about. The FSB and even many of Shaposhnikov’s aides will not hear what is said. The pre-arranged meeting should be something that very few are aware of. Only those who need to know are supposed to have any knowledge of this face-to-face contact.
Clark was told only yesterday of what is going on. He didn’t take the news well when informed that it appears that Primakov was behind the Kerrey assassination: he gets the unvarnished truth on this, not told that maybe Gromov was still involved somehow. His natural reaction was anger and he’d thought that he was being told so that, from a position here inside Siberia, there could be a move against the legitimate Union leadership using forces under his command. Doing anything like that wasn’t something he was looking forward to having to do! Before coming to Siberia, ahead of Operation Flaming Phoenix commencing on the night of July 31st, Clark had been at a high-level Pentagon meeting where he was made to understood that if anything went wrong with the wartime alliance with Primakov’s regime, he and those under his command would be in the eye of the storm. American soldiers and airmen are spread all across Siberia, deep in what only until a few year’s past would be considered enemy territory but, suddenly, this was the territory of an ally. Yet, the ‘things going wrong’ that had been discussed back then was a collapse of the Primakov regime and Gromov taking over in Siberia. Unlikely, but possible. To be told that Primakov is no longer an ally but an enemy instead caused him alarm. What has happened is different though. Ahead of him being let in upon a secret – one which a lot of people know! –, his country’s intelligence agencies have already put plans into motion with regard to those they believe to be the man with all the real power on the ground inside Siberia: Shaposhnikov.
Before the civil war started in February, Shaposhnikov had been the head of the (then united) Union Air Force under President Lebed’s leadership. He outranked generals such as Samsonov and Gromov, yet they held all of the power at the Arbat in Moscow. When fighting began in Moscow, and Primakov fled ahead of that to set up a rival government out in Novosibirsk, Shaposhnikov had followed. The Union Air Force was split like much of the Union’s military forces but there was a good chunk of it which aligned with Primakov due to Shaposhnikov. Primakov appointed him as his defence minister (handing over responsibility for the air force to one of Shaposhnikov’s trusted people) and Shaposhnikov had believed that he would have an important role in this post. That hasn’t been the case. Primakov has structured his Novosibirsk regime in a manner to have rival camps and those in uniform at each other’s throats instead of aiming for power. When Kerrey was killed, Shaposhnikov was under the belief that Gromov was responsible and agreed with Primakov that only by working with the Americans, could the Union be saved: to try to stop them getting involved in the Union’s civil war would likely see the vengeful United States soon enough take on both regimes. It was at Shaposhnikov’s direction that the Union Air Force east of the Urals helped the Americans destroy that part of it west of the Urals so quickly and as thoroughly as they did. Then, yesterday, Shaposhnikov was told the truth of the whole matter. His rage exceeded that of Clark, maybe more than that of President Robb too. What Primakov has done was exceptionally dangerous. It offends Shaposhnikov too because he’s been lied to and used. Primakov and those Chekists from the FSB put his life in danger and so too all of the people of the Union. Shaposhnikov was convinced that nuclear war was imminent and he, more than anyone else in the Union either side of the (now collapsing) divide, knows that it will be one that the United States will win.
The Americans haven’t told him the truth behind the murder of their president for no reason though. They approached him yesterday in Novosibirsk and got him out to Camp Raven for a different reason. They want him to get rid of Primakov and replace him as leader of the re-united Union. Meeting with Robb’s National Security Advisor, who has flown here on a secret mission, Shaposhnikov, already sounded out, is asked whether he is willing to do that. Before responding to Powell as the two of them, Clark and several aides of each are all inside a bomb shelter, Shaposhnikov has one of the latter pull back the hood on his raincoat. The amateur dramatics reveal that this isn’t just a Union Air Force officer serving as a trusted aide but instead a politician whom Shaposhnikov has brought along.
Clark and Powell are rather surprised to see that Viktor Chernomyrdin is here!
The Union’s energy minister under the Lebed and Primakov regimes, the man responsible for bringing in much needed foreign hard currency through oil & gas sales right before relations between the Union and the West fell apart, has accompanied Shaposhnikov to Camp Raven incognito. He does the talking. He’s the one who has his eye on the Kremlin, not the military officer who the Americans want to see replace Primakov.
Chernomyrdin’s ambush doesn’t go the way the looks on the faces of Clark and Powell fear it will. He assures the pair of Americans that Shaposhnikov and he are allies with Chernomyrdin saying that the two of them are in agreement that Primakov must go. The Union needs new leadership and Chernomyrdin wants to provide it. He tells the Americans what he wants.
The Union under Chernomyrdin will consist of Russia, the Ukraine and Belarus: he cares nothing for any of the other republics and says that they are more trouble than they are worth. The Baltics, Central Asia and Azerbaijan he waves a dismissive hand in reference to them… oh, and Kaliningrad too now that that whole region has been levelled by fighting and the locals there are in the pocket of the Poles. For Chernomyrdin to rule, there must be a withdrawal of Coalition military forces: none must be on Union soil by the New Year and that should only be the very last vestiges on the very edges and out of sight up until the end. Prisoners of war must be returned and that includes all those in military uniform even if the United States and its allies want to prosecute them for war crimes: as to war booty, he doesn’t care what has been taken away in terms of military equipment there. Chernomyrdin doesn’t even mention confiscated nukes! There will be no military restrictions on the Union that the Coalition can impose including anything like demilitarised zones or nuclear freezes. The Union must be strong or it will collapse into chaos with American troops trying to keep the peace for a hundred years.
What he is willing to give in return, Chernomyrdin assures Powell that he is going to be very generous. Those POWs he wants back will be prosecuted for war crimes recognised by international agreements that the Union (under the name of the Soviet Union too) has signed with the guilty punished by the Union with a death sentence. However, this doesn’t include those of the intelligence agencies: the FSB, GRU and the SVR. Those he calls Chekists get another contemptuous wave of the hand and he says that the Coalition can keep them, shoot them and throw them into the sea for all he cares! On top of all of this, Chernomyrdin is willing to play along with the ‘game’ that the United States is playing with regards to the lies about both Gromov and Primakov being behind the murder of Kerrey. Powell tries to cut him off but Chernomyrdin smiles and laughs: he says he knows exactly what Washington is going to try and do to save face. The Union led by him will do everything possible to sell whatever lies need to be told. To do this he must have Gromov though. Chernomyrdin wants Gromov transferred to Union custody once he is in the Kremlin. The Union will prosecute him for treason and also for being jointly responsible for the slaying of Robb’s predecessor. There will be no one in the Union who will counter any of this because Primakov will be no more: Chernomyrdin runs a finger across his own throat to symbolise this and he knows that that is what those here want to see done.
Chernomyrdin tells Powell that he wishes for the Union and America to be friends. Allies they cannot be, that he admits, but to be friends is achievable. Friends trade with each other and that includes the Union’s oil & gas. Coalition military strikes have made sure that for the foreseeable future that cannot be piped to Europe – all those pipelines and infrastructure blown sky high: Chernomyrdin throws his hands up and shouts ‘BOOM’ – it must go elsewhere. The Union has to pay for the war damage it has received. This talk of money from Chernomyrdin causes Powell to begin to fret but Chernomyrdin gives him no time to start saying what he is about to. The Union will not be asking for war reparations or anything like that. Chernomyrdin will not be seeking compensation for the deliberate economic destruction done that had nothing to do with limiting the ability of wage war across the western half of the country. He wouldn’t do that because he wants to be friends with America.
Friends take occupying troops off friend’s soil.
Friends help a friend with telling the right kind of truth to the world.
Friends open the air corridors so ‘loyal’ troops can be sent to Moscow.
A stunned Powell leaves Camp Raven. His C-135 Stratolifter aircraft departs the airbase the moment that the lockdown is lifted. He is on his way back home to tell his president in person about all that has just happened. However, once the aircraft is airborne, Powell is already using the satellite link-up to communicate with the White House. This isn’t news that can wait until he arrives. He has to tell them that their selected ‘compliable’ military officer who they wanted to see in charge has been replaced by a grand political schemer who wants to be the type of friend who dabbles in blackmail.
With his hood back up, and still in the borrowed military uniform, Chernomyrdin leaves Camp Raven too. He and Shaposhnikov leave the American airbase in the heart of their country with each of them happy at how things went. They believe that, despite the surprise they sprung on Powell, that former general will convince his president to agree to the terms of the hostile takeover they are ready to undertake. The American’s don’t have any other choice, do they?
The Americans have been here for several weeks. During that time, they have been restricted to base unless under orders to leave: none of the personnel stationed here or transiting through should have gone off-base for a bit of R-&-R. Clark has run a tight ship in that regard with Americans deployed elsewhere in Siberia too. There is a security risk and that doesn’t exclusively mean the possibility of overt enemy action from the Gromov regime. Primakov’s regime has been an ally but since those two DIA men were killed right at the beginning of the war (which Clark doesn’t know began this chain of events with revelations made), his own instructions have told him that the FSB is considered a hostile force despite Moscow-Novosibirsk relations. There have been failings in keeping everyone in line though. A few service-personnel have sought some R-&-R in violation of their orders. Those caught have been punished. A few others haven’t been caught and have been unlucky enough to come into contact with FSB officers on the prowl looking for opportunities. Cleverly tricked or overtly blackmailed – women, money, drink & drugs: it’s all been used –, the FSB has established contacts with some of the Americans. This is all at the low-level and no big secrets have been uncovered…
…until today.
Hours after Chernomyrdin and Powell have both departed, a sergeant with the US Air Force Security Police talks with a contact outside of the airbase. He tells the FSB man that none other than Colin Powell was here earlier, when Marshal Shaposhnikov was too. Money is exchanged and then airman receiving the fee for information relayed believes he got a good deal: who really gives a damn if some former general who works for the White House was here earlier? The ‘Russkies’ are allies! He tells himself he has done nothing wrong and scammed those foolish spies out of a nice sum of untaxable cash – US Dollars too, not worthless Rubbles! – for telling them nothing important.
The FSB man on the ground passes the information up the chain. He doesn’t know the significance of what he has been told. To Novosibirsk the news about Powell and Shaposhnikov being in the same place at the same time will go. That intelligence agency’s director is back in Moscow with Primakov leaving his deputy in Siberia. He sees the importance of this titbit of information. He realises that something very odd, something troublesome has happened. He doesn’t know what but it can’t be anything good. Passing the information on to his boss is currently difficult though. Not impossible: just long-winded. It is going to take some time.
The race is on.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 30, 2020 9:13:00 GMT
James G , Well that is an interesting twist. Chernomyrdin is offering a lot to get quick control of Moscow although the demands for Ukraine and Belarus could be difficult. The fact he's willing to give up on Kaliningrad makes me wonder if he knows about Wałęsa's plans?
There is some risk of blackmail as Powell fears but then Chernomyrdin is himself offering to help in the cover up which would make a 180 turn by him more difficult to believe and also help silence doubting voices in the west.
Of course that last snippet means that there is another channel developing to make Primakov aware he's been rumbled but the question is who will coup who 1st, Primakov or Chernomyrdin? Or it could well end up in greater chaos, which may be what your intending. One thing that wasn't mentioned was any date at which the US seize Primakov and Chernomyrdin move against his supporters in Siberia, especially the FSB, which could be the key issue.
Steve
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James G
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Post by James G on Jun 30, 2020 19:19:36 GMT
James G , Well that is an interesting twist. Chernomyrdin is offering a lot to get quick control of Moscow although the demands for Ukraine and Belarus could be difficult. The fact he's willing to give up on Kaliningrad makes me wonder if he knows about Wałęsa's plans?
There is some risk of blackmail as Powell fears but then Chernomyrdin is himself offering to help in the cover up which would make a 180 turn by him more difficult to believe and also help silence doubting voices in the west.
Of course that last snippet means that there is another channel developing to make Primakov aware he's been rumbled but the question is who will coup who 1st, Primakov or Chernomyrdin? Or it could well end up in greater chaos, which may be what your intending. One thing that wasn't mentioned was any date at which the US seize Primakov and Chernomyrdin move against his supporters in Siberia, especially the FSB, which could be the key issue.
Steve
I've had it planned for some time and thought it would work to throw a spanner into the works. Nothing is easy with the Union! Belarus and the Ukraine will be sacrificed by the West though. Kaliningrad is just a basket of trouble though I'll think about whether he does know about Walsea is up to. Cherno will be a difficult friend in the future! Word has to reach Moscow first and then it has to be taken seriously. We shall find out soon. I had Novosibirsk and the FSB in my notes but forgot. I'll add that in to a coming update: thanks. It is important because the coup cannot be successful in the end. |
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Post by James G on Jun 30, 2020 19:21:37 GMT
98 – Compromise
The news from Powell isn’t something that throws Robb and his top people into uproar. Chernomyrdin making a move to seize power when the president had been banking on Marshal Shaposhnikov being their man might be very unexpected yet it is at once realised that it isn’t a terrible turn of events. Graham, still waiting on final Senate confirmation to take the position of Vice President, is in attendance at the National Security Council briefing when Powell calls in from his aircraft departing out of Siberia and Graham says that Chernomyrdin is a ‘proven commodity’. There is an agreement to this from almost everyone else. A lot of hopes were pinned on Shaposhnikov when he really is in many ways an unknown. At least with the Union’s energy minister, they know him well enough.
In his various guises as Gorbachev’s Soviet minister for the gas industry, the head of the autonomous Gazprom, Lebed’s energy minister and in the same position under Primakov’s regime, Chernomyrdin is no stranger. Calling him either a capitalist or a nationalist would be stretching those definitions too far but he certainly has many of the hallmarks of each. His mannerisms are a bit over-the-top and he can mistakenly say the strangest things – before a correction – but he’s long been on the radar of both politicians and intelligence chiefs throughout the West. He has a public persona within the Union that was favourable to the people there: not loved but not hated either. He inspires loyalty in certain people. Gorbachev, Ryzhkov, Khasbulatov, Lebed & Primakov all kept him in their circles and it is known that he hadn’t made enemies of those in uniform either. Robb’s intelligence chiefs tell him that Chernomyrdin could have easily served under the Gromov regime when the civil war within the Union erupted but, by chance, he was in Siberia at the time when the fighting started. Shaposhnikov has clearly gone running to him the minute that the United States started sounding out the Union’s defence minister for a leadership role and has placed his trust in him.
Just over a year ago, Chernomyrdin narrowly survived an assassination attempt. The summer of 1993 had seen those explosions target the Union’s pipelines which fed Europe with both oil & gas. No one was ever publicly exposed for being behind those attacks that included the bomb inside Chernomyrdin’s car which failed to detonate properly. The CIA remind Robb now that they said then, and still believe, that former KGB figures who’d moved into the newly-fangled FSK had been behind those bombings. They’d been making a move to induce Lebed to expand the FSK into a fully-fledged domestic intelligence service with real power and got their wish when he authorised the creation of the FSB: it was a clever game played which payed off for them. As to Chernomyrdin, the CIA restate now too that they cannot be sure if the intention was to actually kill him or that bomb back then was designed to fail. The thinking is that Chernomyrdin knows (for how long he has the CIA Director cannot say) that he was targeted by the FSK/FSB and blames Primakov for being behind that. He has a grudge that he wants to see turned into revenge. Power is something that is believed to drive Chernomyrdin too. He’s reached great heights but it is thought that he wants more: his words spoken at Camp Raven confirm that.
Chernomyrdin has got the backing of Shaposhnikov to get rid of Primakov and he told Powell that whatever happens to the various Union intelligence services is of no concern to him. He’s promised to aid ‘shaping the public narrative’ on the truth behind the Kerrey assassination, making it clear that he will do whatever it takes. In return he has said that he wants Coalition troops to leave Union soil and is happy to see his country far smaller than it was beforehand. Chernomyrdin also wants Gromov though. This is an issue for the Robb Administration. After being snatched the other day, he’s been held aboard the SS Chestnut at sea in the Baltic along with other high-value captives. This is the man who the American people, and the whole world too, has been told is behind the murder of Robb’s predecessor. Handing him over to the Union isn’t something that those with the president meeting after the Camp Raven secret liaison would like to see. Having Gromov put on trial for treason against the Union, Chernomyrdin said, will make sure that his rule is secure. He also said he can guarantee how that trial will go when the charges are added of killing a foreign head of state: there will be no outbursts made public to the watching world that will threaten the ‘correct story’.
Also flying back home from aboard and on the conference call like Powell is, Blanchard recommends to Robb that they let Chernomyrdin have Gromov. The Secretary of State has just made a stop-off in London, on his way back from Moscow via Riga & Warsaw, where he met briefly with Britain’s prime minister at RAF Northolt. They discussed the matter of what to do with Gromov – along with the whole Primakov mess – before Chernomyrdin sprung his surprise. Major warned of the possibility of Gromov making public statements in any Western trial. To Blanchard, this demand from Chernomyrdin is something that solves all of their problems. Of course, Chernomyrdin will have to uphold his end of the bargain first of all by doing what is necessary and getting rid of the Primakov regime, but giving him Gromov is something that Blanchard says must be done. This sound reasoning brings everyone else around. Nunn suggests that they discuss with Chernomyrdin making sure that that trial is one where Gromov isn’t just charged with treason (seizing power illegally back in February) and killing a foreign head of state (thus endangering the Union) but also committing war crimes during the conflict with the Coalition. Despite everything, the Secretary of Defence believes this is important. Robb agrees yet has to concede that it cannot be a deal-breaker with regard to Chernomyrdin. If he won’t do it, if he says that what was done by the Union in the midst of war was necessary to defend itself, then that will have to be as it is. The United States isn’t holding all the cards: Chernomyrdin has shown at once that he is going to be someone who will be a challenging ‘friend’ to have.
It is agreed. Instead of Shaposhnikov, it will be Chernomyrdin who the United States will help to seize power in the Union and bring everything to a conclusion. It is a compromise but one that they can live with. Will their allies though?
Another round of phone calls go out with Robb speaking with his counterparts in London and Ottawa personally while other administration officials make connections with other allied capitals. It must be remembered that there is still one truth that Britain and Canada know compared to another which different Coalition partners have been told. This affects how the conversations go when it comes to the matters of the fates of Gromov and Primakov as well as how relations with Chernomyrdin will go.
A lot of things are said by different leaders. Nothing is easy and nothing is quick in this regard. It is a new day in Eurasia and the Coalition armies still deep inside Western Russia are again moving forwards with the intention that, should things go wrong, they will take down the Primakov regime like they have the one of Gromov… Wesley Clark out in Siberia has been in contact with the Pentagon submitting a plan of action to that effect which he might put the best face on but it secretly terrifies him. At the end of it all though, agreement comes. The compromise of Chernomyrdin is something that no one is going to stand in the way of, even the Norwegians who are running for the metaphorical hills away from the Coalition.
Through an innocuous communication to this effect – again something that takes time – he is assured of the support of the Coalition in making his move and getting all that he has asked for. General McPeak then sends instructions to General McCaffrey. They cover the halt order for the forward movement of the Seventh US Army (it’s a stop in-place: not a withdrawal) as well as what is to be done in Moscow in the following hours starting with an incoming airlift from Siberia.
The Union’s capital is once more about to earn that nickname ‘coup-grad’.
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forcon
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Post by forcon on Jun 30, 2020 20:42:07 GMT
Good work.
Keeping track of the conspiracy is hard work, but it's realistic. It seems to be how these things go IRL: one individual does something and others respond until a hole too deep and complex for anyone to escape from has been dug. The best beslt for the Allies is to organise a public trial in the Hague and have the perpetrators suffer from unfortunate accidents while in Russian custody before they can say anything to the public in court. Conspiracy theories will run wild, but none of it could be traced back to the US if done properly. It's immoral, obviously, but it's the best way of keeping things quite.
What number coup is this, also? I have unfortunately lost count. Is it the fourth?
Keep it up!
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