Blue Dawn, 1994

[James G]

Mar 16, 2020 8:52:48 GMT stevep said:

   James G ,

  Excellent with two updates but the amount of chaos resulting and the probable let alone possible destruction could be immense.  Ultimately Gromov has probably screwed things up in the last chapter as Nazarbayev and the central Asian nations will almost certainly ally with the Siberians if it looks like Gromov is winning as he would come after them next.  The fact that all three groups have substantial nuclear forces makes it even more dangerous.

  I would expect that Gromov will seek to have as much of the Pacific fleet, especially the boomers away and nuclear powered units at least may well have the range to do so.  It might be that what is happening in H Korea and Vietnam is important here as either might be staging places for such a withdraw.

  Not quite sure while in 12a Primakov is unhappy with Rodionov's suggestion that he becomes President of Russia?  Or given that Samsonov has doubts about Rodionov he's also unhappy with Rodionov taking more of a back seat role, unless he fears that Rodionov is angling for an ultimate total take-over?

  Steve

Thanks. I wanted madness and irrational chaos to set up what comes.
A Siberia - Central Asia alliance will screw Moscow! Nukes all round will be bad for all though will bring stability there too.
The Pacific Fleet subs could try to take a trip though few will be in the best state. I'll give that a go. Perhaps some surface units head for friendly North Korea? Kim gets a navy: same situation as Iran with Iraqi jets in 91?
Primakov saw the switch up of Luzhkov jumping over him, plus Luzhkov is seen as an opponent. Samsonov and the military wanted Rodionov out front where they can see him rather than scheming in the shadows. It's all egoes and paranoia.

The next update will be full on civil war. Bad stuff will happen... and the West will freak out.

[stevep]

Mar 16, 2020 10:10:02 GMT James G said:

Mar 16, 2020 8:52:48 GMT stevep said:

   James G ,

  Excellent with two updates but the amount of chaos resulting and the probable let alone possible destruction could be immense.  Ultimately Gromov has probably screwed things up in the last chapter as Nazarbayev and the central Asian nations will almost certainly ally with the Siberians if it looks like Gromov is winning as he would come after them next.  The fact that all three groups have substantial nuclear forces makes it even more dangerous.

  I would expect that Gromov will seek to have as much of the Pacific fleet, especially the boomers away and nuclear powered units at least may well have the range to do so.  It might be that what is happening in H Korea and Vietnam is important here as either might be staging places for such a withdraw.

  Not quite sure while in 12a Primakov is unhappy with Rodionov's suggestion that he becomes President of Russia?  Or given that Samsonov has doubts about Rodionov he's also unhappy with Rodionov taking more of a back seat role, unless he fears that Rodionov is angling for an ultimate total take-over?

  Steve

Thanks. I wanted madness and irrational chaos to set up what comes.
A Siberia - Central Asia alliance will screw Moscow! Nukes all round will be bad for all though will bring stability there too.
The Pacific Fleet subs could try to take a trip though few will be in the best state. I'll give that a go. Perhaps some surface units head for friendly North Korea? Kim gets a navy: same situation as Iran with Iraqi jets in 91?
Primakov saw the switch up of Luzhkov jumping over him, plus Luzhkov is seen as an opponent. Samsonov and the military wanted Rodionov out front where they can see him rather than scheming in the shadows. It's all egoes and paranoia.

The next update will be full on civil war. Bad stuff will happen... and the West will freak out.

 James G,

  Thanks for clarifying.  I suspect that the units that Gromov will want to keep out of Siberian hands would be the boomers and they might well have the range to get back to 'Russia' especially via the Arctic Ocean.  Both to boost the nukes in his hands and to keep those most dangerous weapons out of his opponents.    However as you say their working condition would be an issue.  In which case would the Russian navy seek to render them unavailable even if it means scuttling them for any who can't sail any great distance?

  The other issue might be the longer range a/c although I doubt many of those could cross Siberia, even without any opposition so they could end up being 'safeguarded' by Kim. 

  Steve

[hussar01]

"Fun" timeline. Interesting take on chaotic Russia.

[James G]

Mar 16, 2020 15:36:35 GMT stevep said:

Mar 16, 2020 10:10:02 GMT James G said:

Thanks. I wanted madness and irrational chaos to set up what comes.
A Siberia - Central Asia alliance will screw Moscow! Nukes all round will be bad for all though will bring stability there too.
The Pacific Fleet subs could try to take a trip though few will be in the best state. I'll give that a go. Perhaps some surface units head for friendly North Korea? Kim gets a navy: same situation as Iran with Iraqi jets in 91?
Primakov saw the switch up of Luzhkov jumping over him, plus Luzhkov is seen as an opponent. Samsonov and the military wanted Rodionov out front where they can see him rather than scheming in the shadows. It's all egoes and paranoia.

The next update will be full on civil war. Bad stuff will happen... and the West will freak out.

 James G ,

  Thanks for clarifying.  I suspect that the units that Gromov will want to keep out of Siberian hands would be the boomers and they might well have the range to get back to 'Russia' especially via the Arctic Ocean.  Both to boost the nukes in his hands and to keep those most dangerous weapons out of his opponents.    However as you say their working condition would be an issue.  In which case would the Russian navy seek to render them unavailable even if it means scuttling them for any who can't sail any great distance?

  The other issue might be the longer range a/c although I doubt many of those could cross Siberia, even without any opposition so they could end up being 'safeguarded' by Kim. 

  Steve

I'd agree on the SSBNs. The fleet will not be the best state. There will be some scuttling of ships but many just simply will not be able to go anywhere. Local situations will see sieges or quick surrenders. Nothing will be uniform.
Maybe Bears and Backfires might fly but they will have to face opposition. I'm not sure if they would go to North Korea. I haven't added anything on that tonight but will think about it.

Mar 16, 2020 18:21:39 GMT hussar01 said:

"Fun" timeline. Interesting take on chaotic Russia.

I did promise a Russia screw.
We have seen 'chaotic Russia'. Let us now see 'civil war Russia'.

[James G]

13 – The Urals


For the third time in less than three years, there had been fighting in Moscow for the leadership of that nation of which that city is the capital. Gorbachev’s Soviet Union had faced those wishing to take over – and they had failed – while Makashov’s brutal attempt to seize power of the Union of Sovereign States after slaying Ryzhkov had been put down. This latest change of leadership is first regarded in the West as being another event similar to the earlier two. There is no move made to take a side. There is a wait to see who will win out. When it becomes clear that the Union military under General Gromov has retaken Moscow, much quicker than anticipated due to what has been seen before, it was he whom foreign governments prepare themselves to deal with. A cat is quickly thrown among the pigeons though when there comes those declarations of independence from Central Asian republics as well as the emergence of Acting President Primakov out in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk. Primakov is more important than Nazarbayev in terms of how the West is going to respond, but is he more important than Gromov? The clash of wills between the two men is identified though not initially understood. Someone has killed Lebed, foreign governments believe, but who is responsible and who is replacing him?

There, finally, emerges an understanding that the Union is firmly split and the two sides are going to fight. Whom should be recognised as the leader of the Union? Gromov or Primakov? The confusion is in many places. Calls are placed and contact established. From Washington, Kerrey gets in touch with Gromov first. Their phone call doesn’t go well. The American president wants to know what has happened and why there is military leadership in Moscow. He seeks assurances too on many matters of security in particular the Union’s nuclear arsenal. Gromov is in no mood for him. He doesn’t respond well to all of these questions which he regards as demands on him and doubts over his legitimacy. There is no threat to the United States, he says, but America must stay out of an internal Union dispute: he warns Kerrey not to interfere as he deals with traitors within his nation. Giving it back just as good, Kerrey directly questions Gromov’s legitimacy to lead… and is hung upon. Their relationship starts as it will go on: extremely hostile. When talking with Primakov – not an easy contact to set up –, the man who claims that he is the legal and legitimate president of the Union has a far better conversation with Kerrey. He states that Lebed has been assassinated by a military coup (not Gromov directly though) and as a result of that, he has sought to take charge as he is entitled to. Gromov has seized power in Moscow but Primakov has the backing of much of his nation’s military and will reassert order soon enough. Primakov doesn’t want conflict, he told Kerrey, but he is being forced into it. All he wants from the United States is recognition of his leadership.

Kerrey doesn’t commit to Primakov. Governments around the world generally will not outright back either Gromov nor Primakov. Both men hold certain reins of power and taking a side risks being associated with the losing one when the other emerges victorious. Talking and sorting this all out without violence is called for from aboard. The chance of that happening is zero though.

Overseas, the recognition battle which emerges in the following days since the Gromov-Primakov conflict starts sees some elements of madness. Diplomats abroad back different sides with splits within countries occurring among diplomatic compounds at different locations. In London, Prime Minister John Major’s government is drawn into the dispute when there are exchanges of gunfire. Armed police are called in – military units are waiting to swoop but were held off – due to the Ambassador & Embassy siding with Primakov while the GRU people at the Defence Attaché office back Gromov. The latter strike first, trying to take the civil war starting within the Union to here in London! Across the Atlantic, the Ambassador to the United States backs Gromov, the Union’s UN Mission up in New York comes out in support of Primakov while from nationwide consulates (Chicago, San Francisco and others) there are backers of each side. At Kerrey’s direction, the FBI is brought in to stop outbreaks of any violence mirroring what is seen in London and a few other places worldwide. The Union has inherited the UN Security Council seat of the Soviet Union. With the diplomats there backing Primakov, this gives Novosibirsk much needed legitimacy. However, there are governments loath to take sides like this. Actions taken by the UN Mission are suspended leading to many arguments.

The gas is turned off. Those pipelines which supply natural gas to Western Europe run through Gromov-controlled territory but start their journey where Primakov and also Nazarbayev now rule. Their disputes with Moscow mean that there will be nothing going down the pipelines. Other links supply oil to Europe (not as profit-making as the gas though) and from Central Asia, the deliveries are stopped at source. Primakov does control Siberian oil that goes elsewhere though – to Japan and newer markets in East Asia – and he intends to keep that flowing. Westerners are leaving the Union. Non-essential staff including families depart from embassies and out of the country likewise go travellers and businesspeople. There is a civil war on and staying within the Union, either side of the fault lines torn open, even far from where there is direct fighting, is a bad idea. There are defections too. Leaving the Union for citizens is easier than during the Soviet era but still not too easy. There are still border controls. Gromov, Primakov and Nazarbayev (plus his southern minions) shut their borders. A few people do get out while others who would want to go too don’t manage to.


Before this internal conflict began, Primakov had held sway over the Russian Republic’s parliament, the Duma. Some deputies are gone though most of them are still in Moscow including allies of his. Gromov has the military arrest some of them yet is convinced by some parliamentary figures to keep it open. His ‘emergency rule’ – that was what his leadership was being officially called with people deluding themselves that it would only be temporary – is supposed to get legitimacy from a parliament which will approve that. The vote in the Duma doesn’t go the way it is planned to. Gromov’s political supporters are opportunists, scoundrels and the odd xenophobic nutter (Zhirinovsky). They don’t have the numbers they say they have. They can’t win over the majority of figures here who, while not have been Primakov backers, aren’t willing to sit back and let Gromov take over. Lebed was someone they believed in: Gromov just isn’t. Before the final roll call is made, voting is abandoned and the Duma closed by soldiers.

In Union territory west of the Urals, there are military units whose commanders either outright refuse to support Gromov or want to maintain neutrality in this whole matter. Gromov will not accept either option, especially open defiance in support of a traitor. Union military forces fight each other where there is open resistance while those who seek that neutrality are cajoled into picking a side… with the understanding that being on Primakov’s side will mean a fight that will lose and be punished for starting. The Union’s second largest city is Leningrad. The name hasn’t been changed as has been the case in recent years with other cities which had Soviet-era ones. Lebed has kept the Leningrad as Leningrad due to the role it played in fighting the Nazis. While the Leningrad Military District commander (who lead a large force) came on-side with Gromov straight away, mid-ranking officers in the city have sided with the powerful civilian government there. Leningrad is declared an ‘neutral city’. Gromov sends tanks and paratroopers to force them to back down. A fight is seemingly moments away but averted when the locals lose their nerve right before the first shots are fired. Gromov has arrests made when promises made not to do so are broken yet the city has not been fought over due to the deception used in getting it in his pocket.

The Union’s Pacific Fleet tries to evacuate as best it can from Far East naval stations. There is fighting outside the bases and then within them… yet not everywhere. Their commander has sided with Moscow not Novosibirsk. Not all of his officers agree with some supporting Primakov while others declare neutrality: a neutrality which Primakov will allow to continue. The situation is a complete mess. Ships and submarines leave port in a few places. The destinations for some of them, especially the nuclear-powered submarines, including ones armed with ICBMs, will be Union territory on the far side of the world. Long journeys begin. Surface vessels which can sail are ordered to go to the Soviet-era Union naval anchorage in Vietnam or, if not possible, then to Moscow-friendly North Korea. Those heading to the latter are supposed to be safe there with a belief that they will end up soon enough back with the Union once Primakov’s rebellion has been put down. These trips are only for those which can make it to sea with enough fuel, supplies and crew members. Many cannot. The Union Navy as a whole is in a poor state and the Pacific Fleet worse off than others. Primakov’s forces will capture themselves a navy though their prize will be a mainly rust bucket fleet.

Gromov has decided to strike against Primakov first and deal with Central Asia afterwards. It makes sense from his point of view as he regards the rebellion in Siberia & the Far East as a bigger threat. Central Asia will be brought to heel once Primakov is dealt with. The one-enemy-at-a-time approach comes unstruck within days of the civil war starting. Novosibirsk and Almaty form an alliance of convenience. Primakov doesn’t officially recognise independence by the southernmost republics but will not fight them. Nazarbayev will not fight him either. Moreover, for the security of each, they will aid each other. Details will have to be ironed out but they agree to try to make it all work. The whole thing is sure to bring many problems down the line yet for now it changes the whole dynamic of the civil war. Each of them is against Gromov’s rule and now doesn’t have to worry about the other attacking them by themselves or in concert with Moscow. This really matters because the civil war is raging now with the frontlines being on the Urals.


Through the final three weeks of February, the Urals are a battlefield. These are the frontlines of the civil war. A massive fight it is with the two opposing sides fast throwing everything they have at this… quickly diluting themselves in it.

Gromov makes the opening move with air attacks made into Western Siberia and the gathering of an army ready to go through the Urals. Primakov has his own generals, ones whom he listens to. General Reut at their head urge him to authorise a spoiling attack with the hope that it will force Gromov on the backfoot and bring about revolt against Gromov. He does. Over the Urals, heading west, Primakov’s troops go. Siberia has been a dumping ground for military units long ago withdrawn from Eastern Europe where they are beyond treaty restrictions (the Conventional Forces Europe agreements). These are the armies which were meant to drive on the Rhine in an Eighties war in Germany. Gromov wasn’t expecting such a thing: more fool him. The cities of Perm and Ufa are captured, far from the mountain’s slopes. Gromov’s forward forces take a battering and withdraw in chaos. Yet, the offensive tempers out before it can go too far and really inflict a massive defeat. Gromov brings up his own armies, those who have made a mad-dash passage through the western half of the Union from garrisons in Belarus, the Baltics, the Ukraine and across Russia. These are the modernised forces of the Union Army. Perm is recaptured but the territory held by Primakov in the wider Ufa area is stubbornly held. At the front, Reut next commands push made south in response where Gromov’s flank forces are beaten with Orenburg reached.

Ufa is capital of the Republic of Bashkortostan: an autonomous region of Russia. It’s local government switches sides where they now back Novosibirsk over Moscow. The less powerful region administrations who rule over the oblasts in this region – Perm and Orenburg – aren’t as important at those who rule Bashkortostan. Of even greater local power is the Republic of Tatarstan. Their autonomous territory isn’t entered by Primakov’s troops but Gromov has his forces assemble here. Those in power in Kazan are uneasy supporters of the Moscow side but accept the facts on the ground of large numbers of troops rolling in. What is Tatarstan to do – fight Gromov? Not likely, not in a civil war where what is being seen is. Powerbrokers the locals cannot be: only unwilling participants and also victims.

Thousands are killed in these engagements on the battlefield and beyond them where the war spreads to due to the use of aircraft and missiles attacking at distance. Union soldiers are fighting Union soldiers, each sent against those whom their commanders say are in rebellion against the legitimate government. All weapons at their disposal are used. Civilian casualties aren’t caused deliberately but they happen to a significant degree. Villages and towns are blasted by artillery. There is bombing done of cities. Chemical weapons are used when nerve gas is employed: each side blames the other for first use. The chaos of warfare sees some shocking events. Prisoners are shot and war crimes against civilians – Russian civilians! – committed aplenty. Discipline breaks down. There have already been many desertions and reservists refusing to answer the call ahead of battle, but as it goes on, there are men who opt to walk away from this. They won’t fight those who they consider to be just like them: fellow countrymen fighting for a political cause which they don’t understand. Deserters are punished, harshly. Friendly fire occurs as red-on-red incidents are plentiful. The same type of equipment is being used and the uniforms worn are almost identical. In the heat of battle, some officers will stop their units from fighting ‘the enemy’ and go over to their side. Tanks join riflemen on the battlefield. There are artillery strikes, rocket barrages and the use of Scud tactical ballistic missiles. A lot of indiscriminate tactical air power is employed. Demolitions are done of bridges and minefields are laid. Locals are forcibly impressed into uniform to make up the ranks while civilian localities are looted of food, fuel and anything deemed worthy of being useful for the fighting.

That fighting this side of the Urals – not where Gromov wished to see it done – slows down soon enough. Everything runs out up to and including fighting soldiers on-hand. Ammunition and fuel supply problems are a big deal for each side but so too is the failed delivery of everything else that keeps modern armies in the field. The wheels of full on war cannot continue turning. Nineteen days of high-intensity warfare cripples both the forces of Gromov and Primakov here on the frontlines. In some places, men begin digging in while elsewhere they pull back away from each other to better positions. It depends upon the terrain and the local situation with available forces. The fighting slows down but doesn’t stop. Reinforcements are heading in and meanwhile there are the activities of special forces which gain in significance now that they can better operate without everywhere in sight being blasted to bits by each side. The killing will carry on even if the dramatic sweeping moves of armoured warfare seen early on have ground to a halt.


The Union’s civil war is watched from around the world. Images come out to go with the stories. There is confirmation of the use of chemical weapons and the many atrocities. Gasps of horror are heard yet there is also some cheering on from implacable opponents of the country: let them all kill each other, it is said.

They are certainly doing that in the Urals.

And it will get even worse than this.

[stevep]

   James G ,

  Gods this is a mess.  Good point that a lot of forces withdrawn from E Europe would be east of the Urals and hence more likely to come under Primakov's command, although most of them will probably have family and homes west of the Urals so their reliability may be weak, especially if any fighting occurs near their homes.  Gromov should win in an extended combat as he has the bulk of the resources of the Union in terms of manpower, food production and industry but he seems to have started off badly in terms of his handling of the Duma and the betrayal at Leningrad, which won him the city without a fight but will make others less willing to trust him.

  However of course given the bitterness of the conflict, both on the front line with chemical weapons being used and the exchanges of venom between the two if it went to one side facing defeat would they risk using nuclear weapons.  Although I think things are going to come to a head with the US before that happens.

  One small typo I think.

Chemical weapons are when nerve gas is employed:

  Should there be a used here?

  Steve

[James G]

Mar 17, 2020 10:06:43 GMT stevep said:

   James G ,

  Gods this is a mess.  Good point that a lot of forces withdrawn from E Europe would be east of the Urals and hence more likely to come under Primakov's command, although most of them will probably have family and homes west of the Urals so their reliability may be weak, especially if any fighting occurs near their homes.  Gromov should win in an extended combat as he has the bulk of the resources of the Union in terms of manpower, food production and industry but he seems to have started off badly in terms of his handling of the Duma and the betrayal at Leningrad, which won him the city without a fight but will make others less willing to trust him.

  However of course given the bitterness of the conflict, both on the front line with chemical weapons being used and the exchanges of venom between the two if it went to one side facing defeat would they risk using nuclear weapons.  Although I think things are going to come to a head with the US before that happens.

  One small typo I think.

Chemical weapons are when nerve gas is employed:

  Should there be a used here?

  Steve

It will only get worse.
With the soldiers, there will be some from now independent countries too. Desertion will rise and crackdowns will increase.
Gromov has a lot of strength but he is going to face challenges: instability will spread further.
Well... we know what is coming, yes. Tonight's update will look at the lead up to that all while the West fears internal nuke use.
Ah, I'll change that: thank you.

[James G]

14 – Gromov’s Union


The Union’s civil war continues.

Parts of the battlefield where the armies of Gromov and Primakov are fighting resemble what was seen eighty years earlier during the First World War: trenches, minefields and soldiers in chemical protection arrayed against each other without any real movement possible. Elsewhere out here in the easternmost extremes of European Russia, it looks like what World War Three has always been imagined will be… just without the nukes. Massed armoured formations fight battles of manoeuvre with combined arms warfare evident and the latest technology employed. The slopes of the Urals sit behind the battlefield with the barren expanses of the Arctic on one flank and on the other flank is the Kazakh steppe. Civilians who haven’t been drafted into the war continue to flee with the majority who can go gone long before March is over with. A huge area is being blasted to ruin. Each side has brought up reinforcements. Gromov’s forces have seen additions made from across European Russia and the republics of the Union to the west and south. Primakov’s armies have been added to by men from the Far East including troops long stationed near the long Chinese border. Fresh men arriving allows for new offensives yet also defensive action to counter those. Big battles occur. There are battlefields for the history books to include in the future: Burguruslan, Cismy and Pokrovka. Everything is thrown into these fights. There are chemicals weapons used once again as well as a mass of conventional firepower. Tens of thousands will die.

The gains for all of this? Two men’s egos.

The fighting where the frontlines are is influences by events beyond. Armies need to be brought forward down access routes and air power comes into play from bases outside. Those fighting here need supplying from afar. On each side of the great divide between the two men fighting for the claim of leadership of the Union, the other side attacks into there with the goal of influencing the battlefield. Long-range air attacks take place. Bombers fly over the Urals and hit Western Siberia. Yekaterinburg and Chelyabinsk on the Ural’s eastern slopes are hit while beyond them Omsk and Novosibirsk are struck too. These high-profile hits to cause disruption there come with many smaller attacks elsewhere. Gromov’s side has many aircraft with much ordnance to put to use. Primakov responds, not wanting to be impotent in the face of this. Kazan is hit first before Gorky and then Moscow itself are struck. Over the Union’s capital one May afternoon, two Backfire bombers come in extremely fast and unbelievably low. Their bomb-bay doors open and out falls a lot of high-explosive. One of them is blown out of the sky after weapons release but the other will make it home… only to be shot down by ‘friendly’ air defences east of the Urals. Aircraft have been lost in red-on-red incidents throughout the conflict so far and that is repeated again here: everyone is using the same equipment.

Desertions and defections continue on each side. For personal reasons or just a weariness to carry on, men leave their posts. This is a big deal. There has already been poor showing in terms of reservists turning out along with a massive butcher’s bill. Each side cannot bleed men like this. Those who are caught when walking away from a fight like this are punished severely. The aim is to set an example to everyone else. That its does, just not in the desired way. The fighting men come to strongly resent the causes which they are fighting for in this brother–vs.–brother conflict and look for a way out of their own. March turns to April. Bashkortostan as well as the oblasts of Orenburg and Perm are where the fighting has remained. It could be argued that this is on Moscow territory rather than Novosibirsk ground yet with each side not recognising the other’s authority over anywhere, all that really matters is that this is the western side of the Urals. For Primakov to win, he needs to go further. For Gromov to emerge victorious, the fight needs to be far on the other side of these mountains.

One side needs to strike a decisive blow.


The United States is beginning to have what some are calling a ‘Two Russias’ policy. This is denied in Washington and the Kerrey Administration argues that they haven’t taken a side in this internal Union conflict and therefore they aren’t de facto recognising each to have relationships with both governments claiming to the legitimate rulers of the Union. Such denials ring hollow. There are bilateral relations with Moscow and Novosibirsk too. The former are pretty poor though the latter are only a bit much better. Kerrey and Primakov can talk – directly or through intermediaries – without resorting to shouting even while disagreeing though. When Gromov and the American president talk, there is only open dispute. Washington and Moscow are at odds as 1994 goes onwards over many things. Gromov puts an immediate halt on nuclear decommissioning and ended other mutual security ties started by Gorbachev and continued through to Lebed’s rule. These went on even where there was much disagreement, over the Baltics especially. Gromov tells Kerrey he has other priorities but it is clear that he is concerned about his country’s weakness while engaged in a civil war. In the United States, a pair of GRU intelligence officers operating without diplomatic cover and caught by the FBI. Gromov claims innocence of them, their organisation and his nation while demanding that they are returned to the Union. On a flight from Warsaw to Newark (the latter city next to New York and a major air transport hub) a self-declared exile from the Union is murdered mid-air. He’d been in Poland but was on his way to America. Not anyone of any real importance – a deputy from the closed Duma – he now becomes one when his corpse arrives in the United States. Once more, Gromov wants his alleged killer back: Kerrey refuses and America will see the murderer prosecuted.

Primakov wants American recognition. Kerrey will not give it to his regime, not at this time anyway. The Lebed-era nuclear weapons agreements made with the United States aren’t continued in the Primakov-controlled part of the Union either. However, the cessation is less controversial because it is done with a bit of manners employed and there is also no objection to American observation. When an American photojournalist is killed during an air attack on Ufa (that Bashkortostan city in Primakov’s hands), his body will be returned with haste and Novosibirsk is as helpful as can be. Primakov seeks to win brownie points here, seizing any opportunity that he can to show that he doesn’t lead what he hoped those in America will think of ‘Bad Russia’ as in where Gromov rules the roost. Colin Powell is appointed as Kerrey’s National Security Adviser come late April. The previous office holder steps down from his post to return to teaching: he goes back to the fancy New England university he was previously at after a dispute within the White House. That scandal is minor when in public but it is actually quite a big deal behind closed doors. The relationship with Primakov in Novosibirsk is not something that everyone in Washington thinks that Kerrey should be having. The Kerrey Administration is criticised at home for involving itself, even unofficially, in a civil war with nation that has hundreds of ICBMs. It is bloody madness for America to anything but try to ringfence the conflict and stay out of it all, the critics say. Right before he is in his new White House office – in a suit, no longer his military uniform since last year’s retirement –, Powell makes a secret visit to Siberia. He is a still a private citizen when he goes to Novosibirsk by way of Vladivostok and then later to General Reut’s forward command post outside of Magnitogorsk. That large Urals town is a hundred odd miles from the frontlines so while Powell is close to the fighting, he isn’t that close. Still, when he returns to Washington and his new job, he can say he has seen the war closer than any satellite image or communications intercept. The insight gained will be important when working for Kerrey as this major foreign policy crisis for the United States continues. The FSB shadows Powell while he is Primakov-controlled territory. They have quite the relationship with the man who claims to be the Union’s legitimate president: he needs them and they need him. Gromov’s GRU also knows Powell is there when he is and a message is fired off to Washington – in the now typical Gromov-style outrage – about ‘American interference’ again.


Gromov’s Union spends the months of March, April, May and then June – Bloody June they will call it – in a state of dis-union. There is no ideology which the leader in Moscow has apart from keeping the Union together, with force of arms too. The war raging against the rebellion he has declared must be defeated takes all precedence. The nation is bankrupted. International trade ends and domestic production increasingly moves to a war-footing. Gromov controls territory where there are the resources to win this war and they are thrown into the fight. That includes manpower, as much of that as possible.

The Union begins to crumble. There are seven republics remaining: Russia, Belarus, the Ukraine, Azerbaijan and the three in the Baltics who are in against their will. There is trouble with each of them, Russia included. Across the Baltics, terrorism continues. When troops roll out, off to fight for the Urals, guerrillas reappear. The FSB had been ‘handling’ them. Gromov has replaced their efforts with the overstretched GRU and they just cannot win the fight being raged. Things are worse in Latvia. Here in the centre, where the ethnic Russian minority have been given the reins of power, they cannot keep control of the ‘natives’. Latvia’s prime minister – who has the real power over the figurehead (ethnic Latvian) president – is killed by those guerrillas. Union troops see deployment orders cancelled in light of this. They launch a bloody counter-guerrilla offensive and kill anyone in their way… civilians included. Parts of Southern Russia, the semi-autonomous republics in the Caucasus, see long dead rebellions rebegin. The Chechens make serious trouble for Union forces with Grozny once more a war zone but violence isn’t exclusive here. Troubles emerge in smaller, little-known ethnic outposts of the empire. Out in Azerbaijan, there is a turnover in leadership. The new president has no desire to stay in the Union yet doesn’t yet take that final step of leaving. Independence is on the cards though as internal political developments here continue without pause to slowly separate Azerbaijan from the Union. When it happens – not an ‘if’, but a ‘when’ – a fight with Gromov is all but guaranteed.

Events in Belarus bring about the Bloody June name. President Vyacheslav Kebich resigns due to parliamentary pressures and is replaced by an outsider named Aleksander Lukashenko. Lukashenko pledges loyalty to Moscow but in Minsk, it is clear that the path being set by Azerbaijan is going to be followed by Belarus. Gromov doesn’t wait here to see what will come. Tanks role into Minsk as the Union military takes control from the politicians. Lukashenko is forcibly disappeared. Byelorussians fight. They don’t rise up for Lukashenko – he was in power for only a few weeks with no public support – but against what is clear Russian imperialism. Soldiers fire on civilians across Belarus’ towns & cities. Militia get involved to defend the people with blows struck against the occupiers and counterblows delivered in return. Among all of the chaos, the border guards along the Union’s frontier with Poland melt away. A rush of people floods into Poland, all refugees as the fighting of the Union’s civil war comes to Europe’s borders. Down in the Ukraine, there is a yes-man of Moscow in Kiev. His power is slipping away daily. Union soldiers – Russians to be honest – take over all security matters less there be another Belarus situation here. Political power in the republic is concentrated elsewhere though, down in Dnipropetrovsk. The Ukraine’s real leaders are here. They don’t hold office but they have the behind-the-scenes power. They watch it slip more and more away. A way out is being sought by them but one which won’t involve their country suffering the same fate of Belarus. These aren’t true democrats but they are patriotic. They want what is best for the Ukraine – on their terms – but are yet to find a way to make that happen.


While the streets of Minsk run red with blood, Gromov’s forces on the Urals battlefield make a major attack. A long-prepared major operation begins. Those assembled huge forces (short of some who took those ‘diversions’ elsewhere) strike. Lebed in his grave would have smiled had he been alive because it is his favoured paratroopers who open the attack that is designed to finally put an end to Primakov’s rebellion. Airdropping though also in helicopter assaults, Union Airborne Troops land in the Urals. They avoid the battlefield below, down on the western side of the mountains, and seize objectives in the rear. Passes through the mountains are taken along with key strategic objectives including the town of Nizhny Tagil where the Uralvagonzavod tank plant is. This facility is immense and operational after it was off limits to air attacks. Taking the tank plant is a vital win for Gromov but of more importance is the mountain passes. The VDV assaults fail only in a few places. Where they win, they have barred the door shut behind Primakov’s armies who are now on the wrong side of the Urals: the paratroopers are tasked to hold on too until Gromov’s armies reach them, whenever that may be.

Fielding four combined arms armies, Gromov’s ground forces strike. The army on the right goes through Kazakhstan territory too, turning Primakov’s supposedly secure allied flank. Nazarbayev’s military forces cannot stop this territorial invasion and retreat deeper into their country. They are weakened from what they began independence with following the desertions of almost all non-Central Asian personnel yet there is also the false, frightened belief that this move is part of an effort to re-conquer Kazakhstan. Gromov intends to do that at a latter stage. All that matters now is Primakov and charging across the Kazakh Steppe is part of that. The other trio of armies, all fresh troops, pummel their way forward through Bashkortostan and also Perm Oblast. They met success. Primakov’s armies are beaten either where they stand or on the defensive. As June turns to July, linkups with the paratroopers in the mountains behind occur. The VDV have held on nearly everywhere and are rewarded by being relieved.

Primakov’s days laying claim to being the Union’s legitimate ruler, one reinforced by the ability to successfully fight to defend what he has managed to take, look doomed. Gromov’s armies are going to come over the Urals and keep on going. Chelyabinsk and Yekaterinburg are each approached while far in the rear Ufa has been encircled into a siege.

Then, on July 4th, those gunshots on the other side of the globe, ones which change the world, happen. This upends everything.

[stevep]

   James G ,

  Another update and the mess in the union gets steadily worse.  With Azerbaijan seeking to break away that would mean the Union loses its primarily source of oil still in Gromov's hands.  Losing Ukraine would be an even bigger blow given its industrial and agricultural importance.  Which makes me think how many people have been drafted, for both sides and what sort of impact that will have on the current year's crops.  Think most of the conflict is away from the prime farmlands although there will be disruption and given how bad the situation was before it must get worse.

  I did think overnight if one side started losing, as Primakov's is and used nukes, with retaliation but many on both sides not working because of their poor condition and support.  THis might be a factor in further increasing the chaos and pressure for external intervention but with most failing to function possibly reducing the fear about strikes against the west.

  Of course Gromov will get the blame for the assassination but wonder if with his forces winning its actually an operation by FSB, with or without Primakov's knowledge to draw in the US against Moscow?

  As you hinted at the start a western invasion is likely to be very successful at 1st given the disorder and how unpopular both regimes are but I could very quickly see nationalism generating resentment, in Russia at least plus unless the US can find suitable internal allies their going to have to rely on assorted probably corrupt figures who could be unpopular quickly.  Plus I could see the US seeking to denuclarise the Union, or at least whatever parts of Russia they hold but that, while seeming logical is going to be unpopular as well.

  Steve

[James G]

Mar 18, 2020 9:52:29 GMT stevep said:

   James G ,

  Another update and the mess in the union gets steadily worse.  With Azerbaijan seeking to break away that would mean the Union loses its primarily source of oil still in Gromov's hands.  Losing Ukraine would be an even bigger blow given its industrial and agricultural importance.  Which makes me think how many people have been drafted, for both sides and what sort of impact that will have on the current year's crops.  Think most of the conflict is away from the prime farmlands although there will be disruption and given how bad the situation was before it must get worse.

  I did think overnight if one side started losing, as Primakov's is and used nukes, with retaliation but many on both sides not working because of their poor condition and support.  THis might be a factor in further increasing the chaos and pressure for external intervention but with most failing to function possibly reducing the fear about strikes against the west.

  Of course Gromov will get the blame for the assassination but wonder if with his forces winning its actually an operation by FSB, with or without Primakov's knowledge to draw in the US against Moscow?

  As you hinted at the start a western invasion is likely to be very successful at 1st given the disorder and how unpopular both regimes are but I could very quickly see nationalism generating resentment, in Russia at least plus unless the US can find suitable internal allies their going to have to rely on assorted probably corrupt figures who could be unpopular quickly.  Plus I could see the US seeking to denuclarise the Union, or at least whatever parts of Russia they hold but that, while seeming logical is going to be unpopular as well.

  Steve

They are in a bad state. The rebellions are everywhere with more coming. Azerbaijan would hurt as a loss but the Ukraine would be a moral blow! The national economy is finished and so people will likely starve this coming winter because of that. The disruption is incalculable. Military needs are trumping everything to the detriment of it all.
I'm not so sure about internal nuke use, failures too. It really wasn't in my planning. Nukes aren't off the table as the war goes on though: nothing is ruled out.
You have a very suspicious mind! The timing for Primakov is damn fortunate. There will be revelations made, secrets spilled on this note.
I did plan to have the western regions empty of Union troops but actually want to see a fight occur to pulled some back story-wise with the Belarus thing. That was unplanned but worked with how the story goes. As this is Blue Dawn, an opposite version of Red Dawn, while we wont have Wolverines, the story will cover much: beyond the invasion. I plan to look at internal factors with occupation. There will be many bad choices made on that.

[James G]

15 – A lone gunman


Since the Union’s civil war started, President Kerrey has spent many long nights worrying about the possibility that that conflict could go nuclear… and drag his country into such a fight. The possibility is there. The three sides – Gromov’s, Primakov’s and Nazarbayev – all have a full range of weaponry to deliver nuclear weapons to each other and worldwide. There are ICBMs, long-range aircraft and missile submarines (though Kazakhstan doesn’t have the latter by virtue of being landlocked) to make continental attacks. Moreover, each of them has short-range systems too. They are fighting each other and using chemical weapons alongside conventional ones. How long will it be before one of them crosses the nuclear line – probably using a tactical one first before escalation – to starve off defeat? Wargames have been run by the Pentagon at the president’s direction and none of them show any good outcome. The worst results in such hypothetical exercises have seen exchanges between warring parties in the Union leading to someone deciding to take down all enemies with them. That would be an attack on the United States either at first or beginning with its global interests. The Kerrey Administration has sought to play down public speculation of such a thing occurring though that hasn’t been helped due to a leak into the public domain of some of those wargames. Naturally, what was published was only the very worst aspects of them and there was no context provided.

When Powell joins the White House as the new National Security Advisor, after returning from Primakov-controlled Union territory, he takes control of the flow of information coming into about the civil war as well as going out. There is less panic with him here. Unconfirmed news coming out of the Union, often causing grave alarm, is only brought to the president if it is really urgent. Instead, things are confirmed first. Powell believes this to be of significant importance due to how tense the situation is. He serves his president and country as best he can. Advice is given to Kerrey that during the previous times when he has spoken with Gromov, the conversations have fast got out of hand: perhaps it is best to slow things down with those when they occur? There are also more streamlined communications with Primakov and Nazarbayev too. Powell is trying to stop a runway situation developing when relations are so difficult, considering that a use of nuclear weapons could happen because of something to do with the United States rather than an internal Union factor. This is all about limiting the risk as best as he can. Come the Independence Day holiday weekend at the beginning of July, Powell had been planning to go to Camp David with Kerrey but he is instead tasked to go to Europe on presidential business: a trip to Britain, France, Germany & Poland all in three days. He is in Europe meeting with American allies when the news arrives about Kerrey. It is said afterwards that Powell broke down in tears when told.


The assassination at the presidential retreat occurs in the early afternoon on a beautiful summer’s day. That Monday, Chuck Robb is down in his native Virginia. The Vice President is a former governor and senator from the Tenth State. He has many links here and is with his extended family relaxing. Secret Service agents are always with him in the eighteen months he has been in office alongside Kerrey. However, when his principle agent enters the living room where Robb is, with two more coming in behind him, Robb has never seen guns drawn from them like this. Neither has he ever observed the looks on their faces like this. To say they were deadly serious would be a serious understatement. Robb is told that they need to leave right now. He doesn’t object but he asks why. This is only moments after Kerrey has been shot and information is only just coming in so what he is told is as best they know: Robb is informed that the president has been shot. For his own safety, he needs to be on the move and taken somewhere secure. Quickly he is in a car and racing towards where an alert helicopter coming down from Quantico picks him up. While that VH-3 is in the air, it’s call-sign changes to ‘Marine One’. Before Robb reaches Washington, he is told that news from Camp David is confirming Kerrey is dead.

There are more than a hundred Secret Service agents in the White House grounds when Robb arrives. Non-essential personnel are forced to leave though, to be honest, there aren’t that many around today. Important people are being called in and not only to they have to deal with the Secret Service when they arrive, but the DC Police are busy outside closing off a wide area. Furthermore, there is also a Marine Corps detachment on close stand-by. Robb is a former US Marine himself and does appreciate their presence nearby. Of course, he has bigger things on his mind though. Sworn in by an associate judge from the Supreme Court (who is in the city for the weekend when so many aren’t), Robb then goes into a series of briefings. There are reports from Camp David about the situation there and then a military status update: Robb is given the latter because there are some initial concerns that this could be part of something bigger. He is soon told that the assassin has been caught and is being securely held in custody. Though it is already a given, Robb makes it clear that he wants to see that killer protected from ‘an accident’ while in custody.

Five hours after the assassination, Robb addresses the American people. The news networks break into regular programming for a special announcement. There is no clue among them that Kerrey has been shot and killed. The news has been ever so tightly held. In another hour that wouldn’t have been the case because it would have leaked from overseas sources, but Robb beats them to the punch. The first that the American people hear of Kerrey’s murder is from out of Robb’s mouth. He is here in the White House informing them of this while assuring them that there has been a smooth assumption of power and the country is safe. The nation is sure to be hurting, Robb says in his address, and will be demanding answers. He promises to give them those answers. The capture of Kerrey’s killer is announced and a promise made that justice will be done. Robb also pledges that with his presidency, he will honour the legacy of Kerrey. Finally, he asks for the American’s people’s prayers for Kerrey and his loved ones.

There is coast-to-coast shock in across America. Gut-wrenching pain hits many though the majority of the people are just shocked. There is anger and there are questions. Who has done this? Why? Who should pay? Memories of the Kennedy assassination back in 1963 flood back thirty-one years later. Rolling news coverage commences. Events will be cancelled and the nation’s celebrations are cut so suddenly short. From overseas, messages of condolence flood in. Some of these – muted ones compared to others – come from countries which the United States doesn’t have the best of relations: Latin America (for example Cuba), the Middle East (Iran) and East Asia (North Korea). In comparison, Saddam celebrates. Iraq’s leader will soon make a statement cheering on Kerrey’s death and calling it divine justice for Operation Desert Python last year. Then there is what comes from Moscow. Gromov sends a short message to Robb over the Hotline stating that what has happened is nothing to do with the Union… nothing more. In public, a spokesman makes comments which (especially when translated) sound very insincere and also accusational. The interpretation is almost that America has done this to themselves with some sort of ‘violent internal regime change’: a self-coup to put Robb in power. As expected, this goes down particularly bad when reported upon in the United States. Primakov and his government express much sympathy and denounce the murder with open offers of assistance made to do anything possible to help America at this time.


Kerrey’s assassin is kept in Secret Service custody. The director of that organisation offers his resignation to Robb and while accepted, it won’t take place with immediate effect: he’ll be replaced by the end of the month. At White House instructions, while the Secret Service keeps hold of Kerrey’s killer, access to him is granted by other parts of the US Intelligence Community. A joint task force of multiple agencies investigate the killing with the Secret Service at the top but not having as many resources as others such as the CIA, DIA, FBI & NSA have. They have a lot of information on this lone gunman. He was identified when detained there at Camp David with the rifle he used picked up too. That – which wasn’t taken from his hands directly – is with the FBI who do a rush but comprehensive job on it to make sure it really is the weapon used. Questions are put to the assassin. He refuses to talk, asking for a lawyer. His English is good and he talks about his right to legal counsel. Has he been watching too many movies? That is not provided yet though. On Justice Department advice, he is denied legal protection for the time being…

…because he has been positively identified as a serving military officer of a foreign power.

The files which the intelligence agencies hold on the assassin are thick. They know all about him. He has been on their radar for many years. Serving with the GRU while part of the Soviet military, he was first identified as an intelligence officer of theirs in the mid-Eighties while assigned to East Germany. Later in Union service, he’s been tracked operating in the occupied Baltics and then in Europe. There is strong evidence to link him to the May ’92 killing of Lithuania’s foreign minister: that diplomat was abroad when his country was conquered and in Poland at the time of his sudden death. Other killings are suspected by this officer with two pinned on him with regards to senior resistance leaders in the Baltic and a further death on Moscow’s streets of a politician serving under Khasbulatov (during his short leadership of the Union) who had troubled the military high command at the Arbat. From overseas, friendly intelligence services provide help too. The British, Germans and Israelis all pass to the Americans much intelligence on this killer. It brings some new information yet also confirms bits already known. All evidence says that he is still in GRU service.

Everything about his time spent in the United States for the three days ahead of him killing Kerrey is investigated. Federal authorities throw everything at tracing his every step. They want to know it all. Nothing is to going to be left uncovered. The most pressing concerns are how he managed to get into Camp David and do what he did but the rest is important too: information from all of that will lead to discovering how he managed to do what he did. All current intelligence says that he is a lone gunman. There is no one else yet implicated. That has to be impossible though. He couldn’t have done this alone. His travel to America and within had to see him helped. His gaining of a suitable weapon, managing to sneak into somewhere meant to be extremely secure and then strike when the president was so exposed was not about luck. Who helped him? Where are they now? Are they going to strike again, going after Robb next?

The assassin refuses to talk as the days go on. There is some discussion at the highest levels of making him talk. It is a dangerous route to go down and might not bring the right answers. From Novosibirsk, the embattled Primakov sends a messenger bearing gifts: a bundle of intelligence on this man and possible links to follow looking for whomever helped him. The Americans take what is on offer though are on their guard. Only the foolish wouldn’t believe that Primakov is doing all that he can to ‘help’ for his own ends. He has to know that everything that the United States knows so far points to this assassin acting on orders that came from Moscow. There is too much proof to ignore on this. All roads lead back to the GRU and that organisation is an arm of Gromov’s regime. Primakov will surely want to help that alone so much caution is employed over what he provides.


Presented to Robb, America’s forty-third president asks why Gromov would have done this.

The terrible relationship that Kerrey and Gromov had is well known and the threats made from Moscow about the Union responding to what has been repeatedly angrily called ‘American interference’ in their civil war are well documented. Still… what could Gromov gain from this all? He gets rid of Kerrey but leaves a traceable assassin to be caught and identified. Powell has returned from Europe. He is still in his job as National Security Adviser. Maybe Robb will want someone new, maybe not. In meetings with Powell and other officials at the highest levels (including top-level Cabinet members), Robb wants a reason. His position is that this assassination is an act of war yet before there can be war, he needs to know why Gromov has done this. Secretary of Defence Sam Nunn and Secretary of State James Blanchard agree with their president on this but the two of them are still – they have been since Robb took the oath of office, when it was already known who this assassin was – pushing for the opening steps to be made to see the country prepare to go to war against the Union. They don’t believe that there should be a wait on this: time is being wasted. To them, the United States cannot afford to wait on this. Should things change, they argue that those readiness moves can be walked back. Finally, still without that motivation known for Gromov to have done this arriving, Robb authorises military preparations to begin: the condition is that recalls can and will be made in the unlikely event everything known so far is proved wrong. Four days have passed but there has been paper planning underway already. Now things are set into motion for Gromov’s act of war to receive the response required.

It takes only another day for Robb to get what he wants.

In comes information, something certain and which is supported by firm evidence. Irrefutable proof arrives of Gromov’s guilt more than just one of his people in custody when caught red handed at the scene of the crime. There is now something solid on his motivation and end goal behind him having Kerrey assassinated too. It is enough for Robb and will be for others as well.

War it is then, soon.

[James G]

President 43: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck_Robb

[hussar01]

Oh great, now a Marine officer. I wonder what the new intel is?

[James G]

Mar 18, 2020 20:44:04 GMT hussar01 said:

Oh great, now a Marine officer. I wonder what the new intel is?

America wasn't in the mood to elect a draft-dodger in 92, not with events in the Union (taking the Baltics, fighting in Moscow) during primary season.
Kerrey and Robb rode a bit of a wave there.

that will be revealed tomorrow... because I was a bit stuck tonight when what I had - before edited out - rang a bit hollow!

[stevep]

Mar 18, 2020 20:24:02 GMT James G said:

Mar 18, 2020 9:52:29 GMT stevep said:

   James G ,

  Another update and the mess in the union gets steadily worse.  With Azerbaijan seeking to break away that would mean the Union loses its primarily source of oil still in Gromov's hands.  Losing Ukraine would be an even bigger blow given its industrial and agricultural importance.  Which makes me think how many people have been drafted, for both sides and what sort of impact that will have on the current year's crops.  Think most of the conflict is away from the prime farmlands although there will be disruption and given how bad the situation was before it must get worse.

  I did think overnight if one side started losing, as Primakov's is and used nukes, with retaliation but many on both sides not working because of their poor condition and support.  THis might be a factor in further increasing the chaos and pressure for external intervention but with most failing to function possibly reducing the fear about strikes against the west.

  Of course Gromov will get the blame for the assassination but wonder if with his forces winning its actually an operation by FSB, with or without Primakov's knowledge to draw in the US against Moscow?

  As you hinted at the start a western invasion is likely to be very successful at 1st given the disorder and how unpopular both regimes are but I could very quickly see nationalism generating resentment, in Russia at least plus unless the US can find suitable internal allies their going to have to rely on assorted probably corrupt figures who could be unpopular quickly.  Plus I could see the US seeking to denuclarise the Union, or at least whatever parts of Russia they hold but that, while seeming logical is going to be unpopular as well.

  Steve

They are in a bad state. The rebellions are everywhere with more coming. Azerbaijan would hurt as a loss but the Ukraine would be a moral blow! The national economy is finished and so people will likely starve this coming winter because of that. The disruption is incalculable. Military needs are trumping everything to the detriment of it all.
I'm not so sure about internal nuke use, failures too. It really wasn't in my planning. Nukes aren't off the table as the war goes on though: nothing is ruled out.
You have a very suspicious mind! The timing for Primakov is damn fortunate. There will be revelations made, secrets spilled on this note.
I did plan to have the western regions empty of Union troops but actually want to see a fight occur to pulled some back story-wise with the Belarus thing. That was unplanned but worked with how the story goes. As this is Blue Dawn, an opposite version of Red Dawn, while we wont have Wolverines, the story will cover much: beyond the invasion. I plan to look at internal factors with occupation. There will be many bad choices made on that.

  James G,

  Not at all.  I had nothing to do with Kerrey's assassination, nor next weeks coup de tat in the EU.   Seriously with a lifetime reading including a lot of what I call techno-thrillers and also a fair number of stories on this site and earlier the AH one, plus too much experience of history I'm rather cynical.  Especially in a story like this with multiple groups maneuvering for advantage by any means the obvious assumption can often be totally wrong.

  The reason I mentioned nukes was that if there had been an attempted exchange but with many malfunctions it might both give an higher incentive for western intervention to stop things getting totally out of hand while the widespread failures make it seem less likely that an enraged Gromov could actually lash out at the US.

  Do expect once the western invasion starts there will be even more mistakes made by everybody.  Plus with things likely to get even worse materially for the ordinary people after the invasion assorted 'nationalist' groups are likely to make capital out of the 'foreign occupiers'.

  Steve