Blue Dawn, 1994

[stevep]

Mar 18, 2020 20:29:07 GMT James G said:

President 43: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck_Robb

  Interesting.  Did he avoid the OTL scandals as that could have made him a dodgy VP choice?  With his wife being the daughter of a former President he would have some contacts no doubt while as you say in the current political climate someone with military experience is likely to be pretty popular.

  Will also be interested in seeing what this new intel is that is so conclusive as Robb has been cautious so far about committing to conflict without being totally certain he has the right target.

[James G]

Mar 19, 2020 10:57:52 GMT stevep said:

Mar 18, 2020 20:24:02 GMT James G said:

They are in a bad state. The rebellions are everywhere with more coming. Azerbaijan would hurt as a loss but the Ukraine would be a moral blow! The national economy is finished and so people will likely starve this coming winter because of that. The disruption is incalculable. Military needs are trumping everything to the detriment of it all.
I'm not so sure about internal nuke use, failures too. It really wasn't in my planning. Nukes aren't off the table as the war goes on though: nothing is ruled out.
You have a very suspicious mind! The timing for Primakov is damn fortunate. There will be revelations made, secrets spilled on this note.
I did plan to have the western regions empty of Union troops but actually want to see a fight occur to pulled some back story-wise with the Belarus thing. That was unplanned but worked with how the story goes. As this is Blue Dawn, an opposite version of Red Dawn, while we wont have Wolverines, the story will cover much: beyond the invasion. I plan to look at internal factors with occupation. There will be many bad choices made on that.

  James G ,

  Not at all.  I had nothing to do with Kerrey's assassination, nor next weeks coup de tat in the EU.   Seriously with a lifetime reading including a lot of what I call techno-thrillers and also a fair number of stories on this site and earlier the AH one, plus too much experience of history I'm rather cynical.  Especially in a story like this with multiple groups maneuvering for advantage by any means the obvious assumption can often be totally wrong.

  The reason I mentioned nukes was that if there had been an attempted exchange but with many malfunctions it might both give an higher incentive for western intervention to stop things getting totally out of hand while the widespread failures make it seem less likely that an enraged Gromov could actually lash out at the US.

  Do expect once the western invasion starts there will be even more mistakes made by everybody.  Plus with things likely to get even worse materially for the ordinary people after the invasion assorted 'nationalist' groups are likely to make capital out of the 'foreign occupiers'.

  Steve

The next time I stub my toe, I'd assume you are at the height of that conspiracy.
When I write complicated plots, I sometimes think 'nah, unlikely' but history is full of surprising later revelations where assumptions have been wrong. the details here are murky as hell and I'll bring that soon enough: once the shooting starts there will be revelations, so in a few days story-wise.
There will no doubt be resistance to occupation. 'We are here to free you' is not something easy to convince people of, especially I believe in a country like Russia! The Union is a multi-ethnic too with all sorts of people everywhere and plenty of local bad guys willing to emerge!

[James G]

Mar 19, 2020 11:10:32 GMT stevep said:

Mar 18, 2020 20:29:07 GMT James G said:

President 43: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck_Robb

  Interesting.  Did he avoid the OTL scandals as that could have made him a dodgy VP choice?  With his wife being the daughter of a former President he would have some contacts no doubt while as you say in the current political climate someone with military experience is likely to be pretty popular.

  Will also be interested in seeing what this new intel is that is so conclusive as Robb has been cautious so far about committing to conflict without being totally certain he has the right target.

There was one sex scandal. It's bad on the face of it but I don't think it was Clinton-esque or at Trump level. He was going for the VP slot too: enemies would have still done all they could be Kerrey, a divorcee with an actress girlfriend, might have been a better target.
Despite reading as much as I have been able to find out about Kerrey recently, I haven't done anywhere near as much reading about Robb: I didn't even know who he was married to. Neither man is as well known, thus well written about, as Clinton, Gore and others of that era.

They have evidence and motive now. It will be enough. It doesn't have a Primakov connection too, which is a concern because that would cause too much suspicion of a frame up.

[James G]

16 – Guilty


A well-armed team of FBI agents raid a motel in southern Pennsylvania. The state and local police are alerted and provide support, but it is the Hostage Rescue Team (the FBI’s SWAT-type force) which charge into the roadside establishment. Before he knows what has hit him, the identified target is in cuffs and being dragged to a waiting helicopter. Someone who has assisted in the Kerrey assassination is now in custody like the gunman himself. The motel room and the detainee’s car are both taken apart. There is evidence implicating him in the president’s murder found straight away. Out in West Virginia, the FBI is also looking for another suspected helper of the murder which had taken place several days before at Camp David. They have local, state and federal assistance (the latter being the US Marshals) as they hunt for their target who is reported to have taken to the mountains to evade capture. Finding him is going to be more difficult than a four a.m. snatch of a man sleeping in a warm bed but they are going to try. Anyone involved in killing Kerrey is going to be run to ground no matter what it will take.

All the hard work done in recent days is paying off. Where the US Intelligence Community has thrown everything at this case, they are getting results. They have identified people who helped with the assassination. Nothing is being provided by that lone gunman who still refuses to talk, but the painstaking investigation into everything concerning his time spent here in the United States has brought about excellent leads. Those who paved the way to get him to where he fired that shot from, providing him with what he needed, are either caught or being actively sought. Both of these two men – the man in the motel room and the other who has fled into the Appalachians – are, like the assassin himself, confirmed GRU intelligence operatives. They each are serving officers with the military intelligence service of Gromov’s Union who all came here to the United States to make the Kerrey assassination happen.


Irrefutable proof that Gromov is ultimately behind the killing of an American president is joined by a motive for that. President Robb had wanted to hear a reason why Gromov would do such a thing, something he could believe in but so too could the American people, before he would take his country to war. A motive has come. There is a defector from the Union’s military now in custody. He came over the border from Belarus into Poland a few days ago and was handed over by the Poles to the Americans. This defector is a Union Army general officer, the deputy commander of Western Military District. While not one of Gromov’s inner circle from the Arbat, he is still high-ranking and on the inside enough to matter. He’s told those who’ll listen to him – people from all those agencies with the acronyms – what he knows about the killing of Kerrey. While the exact operational details aren’t something he is aware of (he provided nothing to really help the two FBI operations), he knows the background of all of this. His commanding officer, whom the Americans know to be close to Gromov, was told a month ago that there was an assassination plot on standby. Generals at the highest levels within the Union were either supportive or opposed to what the GRU had been ordered by Gromov to keep ready to go with little notice. They’d feared word leaking out and once it had happened, this defecting general had believed that there would be a ‘clean up’ of those who had knowledge with his head on the chopping block (not metaphorically either) there. He’d run rather than be killed. He talks rather than be silenced from talking. Importantly for those listening to him, he has no connection to Primakov’s side in the Union’s civil war. There would be doubt in them had he been, but there is no link with Novosibirsk.

Why kill Kerrey?

Gromov has been taken with the belief that the United States has been supporting Primakov’s rebellion against him. This support isn’t to see Primakov installed in Moscow though. Instead, the idea that the Union’s leader is convinced of is that America wants to see the Union in a permanent state of civil war. A broken Union is best for the United States. Advantage can be taken so the pieces outside of Gromov’s control can be transformed into puppets for American interests. There will only be one superpower as long as the Union is divided and fighting itself. Gromov sees American troops in Eastern Europe and interventions such as Powell’s visit to Novosibirsk as proof of his own concoction. Gromov, the defector goes on, sought to have Kerrey killed to stop this grand strategic plan from reaching a successful outcome for the United States. Kerrey was the #1 enemy of the Union and no one – i.e. Robb – would be ready enough to step up and take that mantle. As to the timing of the assassination, when Gromov’s armies were making headway, it is said that Gromov struck then because he believed that Kerrey was likely to make a rash move to stop Primakov being defeated. By killing him, the Union will be able to finish off those in rebellion, re-establish itself and only then have to worry about a recovering United States left in chaos at the death of its leader.

Robb believes this when he hears it all. It makes sense given the situation. There is that separately gained proof that this was a state-sponsored terrorist action of the Union. Others at the top of his administration agree and certain allies abroad do as well when briefed. Just because the new president and others know that Gromov’s plan isn’t going to work, that doesn’t mean that Gromov hasn’t be foolish enough to have done this. They look at everything else the Union has done in light of these revelations. Everything adds up.

Gromov did this… and he has made a mistake on a magnitude he cannot imagine.

Robb decides that he has enough to go to war on. There are those who at once say that from the moment that shot was fired at Camp David, war with the Union was inevitable regardless of what has come in recent days. Maybe things might not have gone this way though. War was never certain, Robb says, but it is now. The new president says this when he is visited in the Oval Office by former President Bush. The latter requests to see him on an urgent matter and is granted an audience. Robb knows Bush well enough from his time in Washington and they have an established relationship. Bush also has one of those with the first leader of the Union: Gorbachev. The last Soviet premier and the first (for five weeks) president of the Union, has been in contact with America’s forty-first president through a trusted intermediary to pass on an urgent message. Gorbachev says that Gromov hasn’t done this. It is a frame-up, he added, with someone else responsible. What was asked by Bush is now asked of Bush: what makes Gorbachev say this? Does he have any proof? No, Gorbachev doesn’t. He has nothing but gut feeling and words from out of Gromov’s mouth when he spoke to him two days after Kerrey was killed. It is a third-hand denial. There is nothing more that Robb can do but thank Bush for his time and inform him that – with regret – he cannot act on such a thing. Kerrey’s death needs an answer and that answer has to be war. If Bush could provide him with something more, things could be different but a denial like this won’t do.


Robb addresses the American people on the evening of July 9th. Details have been released earlier in the day concerning the upcoming state funeral for Kerrey and it is thought by media commentators that Robb will be talking more about this in addition to possibly discussing who he will be selecting for his vice president: the media has been talking about the latter a great deal. Talking heads have been floating many names which have included Mario Cuomo, Al Gore and Bob Graham as the most prominent personalities.

Instead, once more, the new president surprises the country. He tells those at home in America, plus watching from around the world, who is responsible for the killing of his predecessor. Gromov’s Union is blamed and details (minus many secret matters, naturally) are provided to the public.

That general in Moscow is guilty of this, Robb tells America: Colonel-General Boris Gromov has had his GRU state terror group murder President Kerrey.

Domestic and global fireworks will erupt at this revelation.

[hussar01]

With the civil war in the former Yugoslavia, is Milosevic behind the Gromov regime?

[James G]

Mar 19, 2020 21:42:28 GMT hussar01 said:

With the civil war in the former Yugoslavia, is Milosevic behind the Gromov regime?

I'd guess so. During his near two years in power, Lebed supported Serbia with UN games and arms shipments. A lot of that was to twist the tigers tail - infuriate the US - but there was appreciation for this. Gromov has had five months in power, all of internal war. The focus is almost entirely domestic yet Serbia will be likely one of few worldwide friends.

[stevep]

Mar 19, 2020 19:33:10 GMT James G said:

Mar 19, 2020 11:10:32 GMT stevep said:

  Interesting.  Did he avoid the OTL scandals as that could have made him a dodgy VP choice?  With his wife being the daughter of a former President he would have some contacts no doubt while as you say in the current political climate someone with military experience is likely to be pretty popular.

  Will also be interested in seeing what this new intel is that is so conclusive as Robb has been cautious so far about committing to conflict without being totally certain he has the right target.

There was one sex scandal. It's bad on the face of it but I don't think it was Clinton-esque or at Trump level. He was going for the VP slot too: enemies would have still done all they could be Kerrey, a divorcee with an actress girlfriend, might have been a better target.
Despite reading as much as I have been able to find out about Kerrey recently, I haven't done anywhere near as much reading about Robb: I didn't even know who he was married to. Neither man is as well known, thus well written about, as Clinton, Gore and others of that era.

They have evidence and motive now. It will be enough. It doesn't have a Primakov connection too, which is a concern because that would cause too much suspicion of a frame up.

James G,

  Well on the marriage I just checked the Wiki link you gave.    Never heard of him before myself so glad to know anything.

  Steve

[stevep]

   James G ,

   Well that looks very convincing and would fit the internal believes of someone in Gromov's position as what he assumes for Kerrey is very likely what he would do if the positions were reversed.  There is that last issue with the message from Gorbachev but as the latter admits that's just a gut feeling and also he could be under some sort of pressure, with say family or friends being held hostage.  We may find out more later in the TL or not.

  The question is how do you go to war with a nuclear super-power when its ruler is already feeling desperate and isolated?  True if he starts throwing nukes at the US, or even allies Russia's going to get hammered hard but it would still be very costly for the initial victims.  Robb will have to be pretty confident he can keep the nuclear genie in the bottle if he actually wants to depose Gromov.

  Following that is also the question of what are Robb's war aims?  Deposing Gromov is one thing but is he then going to allow Primakov's gang to take over or try and set up an alternative government, which would be a lot more complex.  Neither the US or their allies would want continued instability in 'Russia' or the wider Union as its certain to have impacts on the wider world.

  I'm also wondering whether Robb should have waited to declare this until he's ready for the US to strike.  This would mean some delays, which might be difficult to keep preparations secret, and also be viewed by conspiracy types as evidence of a set up if the declaration of Gromov's guilt is immediately followed by systematic attacks.  However now Gromov knows that he's too blame and must expect retaliation,although he might not realise that would be a full invasion. 

  Anyway looking forward to seeing how you handle those issues.  A very intriguing chapter. 

  Assume there might be some innocents also caught up in the hunt for the assassin's helpers as people who encountered him by accident or possibly hired out an house or something could be under suspicion, at least at 1st.

  Steve

[James G]

Mar 20, 2020 10:13:28 GMT stevep said:

   James G ,

   Well that looks very convincing and would fit the internal believes of someone in Gromov's position as what he assumes for Kerrey is very likely what he would do if the positions were reversed.  There is that last issue with the message from Gorbachev but as the latter admits that's just a gut feeling and also he could be under some sort of pressure, with say family or friends being held hostage.  We may find out more later in the TL or not.

  The question is how do you go to war with a nuclear super-power when its ruler is already feeling desperate and isolated?  True if he starts throwing nukes at the US, or even allies Russia's going to get hammered hard but it would still be very costly for the initial victims.  Robb will have to be pretty confident he can keep the nuclear genie in the bottle if he actually wants to depose Gromov.

  Following that is also the question of what are Robb's war aims?  Deposing Gromov is one thing but is he then going to allow Primakov's gang to take over or try and set up an alternative government, which would be a lot more complex.  Neither the US or their allies would want continued instability in 'Russia' or the wider Union as its certain to have impacts on the wider world.

  I'm also wondering whether Robb should have waited to declare this until he's ready for the US to strike.  This would mean some delays, which might be difficult to keep preparations secret, and also be viewed by conspiracy types as evidence of a set up if the declaration of Gromov's guilt is immediately followed by systematic attacks.  However now Gromov knows that he's too blame and must expect retaliation,although he might not realise that would be a full invasion. 

  Anyway looking forward to seeing how you handle those issues.  A very intriguing chapter. 

  Assume there might be some innocents also caught up in the hunt for the assassin's helpers as people who encountered him by accident or possibly hired out an house or something could be under suspicion, at least at 1st.

  Steve

Not everyone will believe it all though. The evidence is good enough for a vengeful US Administration though and also some allies.
The nuclear issue complicates this story a lot. I think I have a way through it but its still quite the hurdle.
The war aims are in the update below. They are again not the best but sensible in light of the situation. We've seen wars commence on less secure aims but eth criticism of them from others will be big.
I was thinking that the pressure inside the US would be huge to give the people answers. There is a period ahead of the announcement and the war starting: several weeks. Gromov has the time to use that wisely should he want to.
There is that hunted assassination team member for one and maybe another. I intend to get back to this, because it matters into the big picture, and where there was brilliant success at first, things will get more difficult with how the hunt goes.

[James G]

17 – REFORGER


From the Arbat, Gromov orders a halt to the ongoing successful offensive in the Urals. His stop order comes three days after the Kerrey assassination and is something that his field commanders object to on military grounds but which Gromov explains needs to be done due to politics. The Union of Sovereign States is increasingly looking like being blamed for the death of that American president. A temporary halt in the push against the remnants of Primakov’s forces is the wisest thing to do at a time like this. Gromov’s armies are entering the Western Siberian Plain… while the crazy Americans have troops in Eastern Europe with Moscow between the two. Chelyabinsk and Yekaterinburg both fall before the stop order is enforced with those Urals cities back under Union control. While there is no longer any forward movement eastwards into rebel-held territory, there is fighting in each of these. Soldiers fighting for Gromov battle those under Primakov – each side still claims they are the Union Ground Forces – who have been cut off in these urban areas along with civilians who side with the rebellion against Moscow too. The casualty count is higher in Yekaterinburg and there is a lot of damage done to the city too.

Once the formal allegation comes from Robb a couple of days later, charging Gromov and the Union with killing Kerrey, Gromov’s generals are more understanding of that halt order. They had been told that the Americans were believing what the Arbat says is a Primakov-backed scheme to frame Moscow for that murder but thought that common sense would eventually come to those in power in the United States. Alas, that is not to be. This Robb character – who is this fellow? – has fallen for such madness. His public accusation is followed up by military deployments announced by the Pentagon. The army group forming the Urals Front sees more than half of its combat forces (and much of the air & artillery) support given turnaround orders. Gromov’s subordinates act fast but are hampered in following those instructions by the terrible state of the Union Ground Forces. It took them months to organised to get here to fight and the about-turn is going to be no easy feat. Difficulties aside, they must do so though.

This is because the Americans have activated Operation REFORGER and they need to respond.


Secretary of Defence Nunn announces the beginning of REFORGER straight after Robb addresses the nation concerning Kerrey’s killer. From the Pentagon, he declares that there will be full mobilisation of the US Armed Forces and the mass deployment of them to Europe. REFORGER (REturn of FORces to GERmany) is a long-planned operation. The Soviet collapse and the emergence of the Union in its place have seen changes made to REFORGER but the core mission remains the same: deploy substantial forces overseas from the continental United States to Europe in an emergency. However, rather than see them head to battle positions in Germany, with the Iron Curtain gone and Moscow’s armies much further east, those sent across the Atlantic are tasked to assemble in Poland instead. The US Army and US Air Force will be going into Eastern Europe and joined there by reservists plus national guardsmen. Nunn announces the mobilisation of them too. In the previous days, there has been an alert in-place as well as an emergency ‘stop-loss’ order of personnel (no retirements, no leaves) and the selected movement of transport aircraft & military sea-lift which Robb authorised the day before, but that has been nothing as large as what is now underway. REFORGER comes alongside unmade announcements about movements of further troops and aircraft as well as the US Navy and the Marine Corps. Nunn doesn’t discuss those openly for the world to hear. Yet, he does make mention of the redeployment within Europe of American forces there. The US Army’s V Corps is soon on the move as they leave Germany. They are heading for Poland too, moving from garrisons in the western part of that recently reunified nation across the eastern side yet also going through the Czech Republic too on the way.

REFORGER is quite something.

Soldiers across America from scattered garrisons start to be airlifted to Europe to link up with equipment sitting in storage. There are all of those POMCUS sites where almost everything that they will need to fight is waiting upon them. Military aircraft as well as civilian ones being taken into service begin the process of that airlift. There are hundreds of thousands of men & women who are moving. Both the III Corps and the XVIII Airborne Corps are going to Europe while others are going elsewhere. With regards to the XVIII Corps, neither the equipment nor stores for them are at the POMCUS warehouses through Germany and the Low Countries. This will all have to be brought over on more aircraft as well as by sea. The Pentagon is prepared to see this done with speed and it is rapidly underway. Detailed contingency plans long-established are activated to allow it to happen. The same plans are followed for aircraft from Tactical Air Command units spread across the country which likewise have REFORGER assignments. The recent changes to the plans to see deployments to fighting stations in Eastern Europe – rather that Western Europe – are fast in effect. While those combat jets are getting airborne ready for ferry flights over the Atlantic, out ahead of them are transport aircraft laden with specialist personnel and equipment so that they will be able to operate from where they are going to. The US Army Reserve has some combat forces under command who receive REFORGER deployment orders but the majority of this organisation has supporting infrastructure. Off to Europe they are going too. The regulars will need them.

The US Navy and US Marines have their own deployment plans. They begin with those, generally out of the public eye too. There are carrier groups at sea soon to be joined in the coming days and weeks by several more. Ships and submarines begin the process of getting underway as fast as they can as well. There are assigned missions for all of them away from Poland. All three marine divisions, plus the Marine Corps Reserves, are mobilised to form up a trio of air-ground task forces with individual global deployments to be made. Furthermore, selected elements of the National Guard receive federalisation orders. Each and every state, plus several United States territories, have national guardsmen with ground and air units. Those with high readiness levels are given overseas taskings. The air units can move quicker than the soldiers but the latter are significantly larger. Unlike in 1991, now in ’94 the National Guard is going off to war rather than being left behind. There will be issues that crop up with this over politics and readiness, that is for sure, but the orders to begin deployments stand.

The full military might of the United States is being flexed ahead of seeing action.


It is argued that the state-sponsored assassination of Kerrey by foreign military operatives on American soil makes this an Article Five issue with regard to the United States’ role in NATO. This has been put to Robb several times, including back on Independence Day when it was known within hours who the captured assassin of the president was, that that part of the North Atlantic Treaty should come into effect. A call would thus be made to the members of the alliance to come to America’s aid because an attack on one of them is an attack upon them all. Leaders from NATO countries have been spoken to on this issue. There have come words of encouragement should such a measure be taken yet Robb hasn’t done it. Article Five will not come into play because Robb doesn’t feel it is necessary… and not all members of NATO are onboard with the idea too. No one is siding with the Union but there is hesitancy over the speed of events. While the blame apportioned to Gromov is widely believed, the idea of war with the Union over this just isn’t what the majority of the members of the sixteen-nation alliance are willing to commit to. Robb isn’t going to cause an open split in NATO over this because there is no need. A trio of NATO members come aboard with the need for war because they agree it has to be done after Kerrey was assassinated. Therefore, what will be done will be done outside of the alliance, due in part too to the support being given by Eastern European nations not part of NATO in all of this.

Britain, Canada and Norway are the NATO nations which begin mobilising their military forces in readiness for war alongside the United States. Their leaders had been with Kerrey is openly facing down Lebed’s aggression and they are with Robb now against Gromov. Large British and Canadian deployments begin while the smaller Norwegians make preparations at home. Outside of NATO, there is the Visegrád Group. Formed back in ’91 by Poland, Hungary & the then Czechoslovakia, there are now four members after the Velvet Divorce last year. Acting in concert, these countries which were once part of the Warsaw Pact, ‘kidnapped’ as Lech Wałęsa has long said, have been seeking NATO membership while also supporting American policy with regard to the Union. Poland is the leading member of the four and there have been some internal disputes among them often caused by Slovak actions. However, on the matter of stopping another kidnapping of Eastern Europe, they are together. It has been long agreed between them that they must act as one or all go down on their own. They invited – begged to be fair – Kerrey to deploy forces into Eastern Europe earlier in the year which caused Moscow’s outrage at the broken of the ‘pinky promise’ made back in ’90 over such a thing. The Visegrád Group are now members of what is being called the Coalition: the international alliance against Gromov post July 4th. Their countries are open to Coalition military forces arriving overseas from the West and they themselves begin fully mobilising (from an already high state of alert) their armed forces. A considerably large military force starts forming up from the Visegrád Group countries though there are many questions being asked over the dubious quality of it.


Robb has openly accused Gromov’s Union of assassinating his predecessor. The United States is mobilising its armed forces and there is the building of the Coalition of allies. This is done because the president believes that America must be prepared to go to war in response Gromov’s action. That there will be a war has not yet been officially announced but war there will be.

Why go to war?

Killing Kerrey is something that the United States cannot accept and will not leave unanswered. Robb has been thrust into this position he is in by the actions of Gromov. He intends to put an end to the ability of Gromov to do such a thing. Those allies who are joining the Coalition are spoken to by the new president on what this all means. America will lead, with them in support, an international effort to depose the current leader of the Union. That means attacking and invading the Union to destroy the illegal regime currently in power. Primakov will be supported with his government in Novosibirsk, the legitimate one, being installed in the place of that of Gromov: hopefully with his forces doing a significant part of the fighting too for both practical and political reasons. The Baltics will be freed from their long occupation with Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania once more independent nations. Efforts are already underway to secure support ‘elsewhere’ within the Union and that will mean that the Union will likely become only Russia at the end of all of this. That Russia will be a free, democratic nation without an arm of the state which reaches across oceans and murders an American president for internal political gain.

July goes on. REFORGER continues along with mobilisation within the United States and among allies. Gromov formally denies killing Kerrey and stands in defiance against what Moscow calls American efforts to ‘intimidate’ the Union. There are military preparations being made within the Union, many of them seen by the Coalition. The nuclear issue looms large too. Gromov has all of those nukes. While the Americans are moving troops about, so too is he, but with the Union being a nuclear-armed nation, with ICBMs and SLBMs, Gromov believes that war isn’t going to come because of them. He sees the matter as Robb trying to get him to either step down or encourage someone else to remove him all so that Primakov can come to Moscow. Gromov stands firm and doesn’t back down no matter how much pressure is applied. He moves about some conventional military forces and retains his nuclear arsenal. That is judged sufficient to make sure Robb doesn’t do anything silly. Only going this far is because he firmly believes that while an attack is being threatened, isn’t going to happen. Another Barbarossa, a Blue Dawn, is out of the question!

[James G]

There will be one more pre-war update tomorrow before the beginning of the conflict.

[lordroel]

Mar 20, 2020 23:41:19 GMT James G said:

There will be one more pre-war update tomorrow before the beginning of the conflict.

That is quick.

[stevep]

   James G ,

  Good update and summarised matters well.  A bit surprised that Robb is [planning to?] recognise Primakov as the Russian leader but makes sense in terms of trying to nationalise the conflict as quickly as possible.  The more of the fighting done by Russians and the quicker the Coalition forces can leave the better - although I suspect it won't be that easy.  Primakov  won't be happy about Robb's plans to liberate the Balts let alone by the sound of it restricting 'his' state to Russia only.  That would mean the loss of a lot of population and resources but would gain support from the Central Asian bloc and probably others.  However trying to make sure the new states, let alone Primakov's Russia is democratic I can't see that happening.  Especially since while Gromov's Russia has its own terrorist/assassins, Primako's has and may well be heavily influenced by the FSB, the successor to the KGB.

  I think Gromov made a mistake stopping military actions against the Siberians as soon as the assassination happened.  Not only did it stop things when it was looking like he could largely gut the Siberians of most of their core areas but it suggests he suspected he would be blamed for the assassination.  Which while that might just be paranoia on his part makes him look guilty as at that time no one, at least outside elements of the US security services and those responsible would know it was anything other than a lone fanatic - which has been the case in previous Presidental assassins in the US.

  Of course if you want to be really complex the assassin and possibly some of the others involved, while in the GRU could possibly be long term KGB/FSB sleepers and they set this up to discredit Gromov .   Who me twisted, whatever gives you that idea.

  I forgot to say yesterday but announcing the opinion that Gromov was responsible, let alone clear preparations for military action I can see even more chaos on fiscal markets and the economy generally as fears of a much wiser and more destruction war and its economic impact, even if nukes aren't used - which a lot of people will be fearing - will be disruptive at least.

  Also you mentioned the cutting off of gas supplies to Europe.  I would suspect that Gromov's Russia will also be seeing shortfalls there and in a Russia winter as fighting started in Feburary that will have had some nasty consequences.  [Sorry that's a bit late but only just occurred to me.]

  Would guess that not all the moblised troops are heading for Europe because there are concerns that other troublemakers, such as Iraq, Iran, N Korea might seek to take advantage of the great powers being distracted.

  Steve

[James G]

Mar 21, 2020 8:41:00 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 20, 2020 23:41:19 GMT James G said:

There will be one more pre-war update tomorrow before the beginning of the conflict.

That is quick.

It is. I didn't want to go down the '100 updates ahead of war' route so recently seen.

Mar 21, 2020 11:46:51 GMT stevep said:

   James G ,

  Good update and summarised matters well.  A bit surprised that Robb is [planning to?] recognise Primakov as the Russian leader but makes sense in terms of trying to nationalise the conflict as quickly as possible.  The more of the fighting done by Russians and the quicker the Coalition forces can leave the better - although I suspect it won't be that easy.  Primakov  won't be happy about Robb's plans to liberate the Balts let alone by the sound of it restricting 'his' state to Russia only.  That would mean the loss of a lot of population and resources but would gain support from the Central Asian bloc and probably others.  However trying to make sure the new states, let alone Primakov's Russia is democratic I can't see that happening.  Especially since while Gromov's Russia has its own terrorist/assassins, Primako's has and may well be heavily influenced by the FSB, the successor to the KGB.

  I think Gromov made a mistake stopping military actions against the Siberians as soon as the assassination happened.  Not only did it stop things when it was looking like he could largely gut the Siberians of most of their core areas but it suggests he suspected he would be blamed for the assassination.  Which while that might just be paranoia on his part makes him look guilty as at that time no one, at least outside elements of the US security services and those responsible would know it was anything other than a lone fanatic - which has been the case in previous Presidental assassins in the US.

  Of course if you want to be really complex the assassin and possibly some of the others involved, while in the GRU could possibly be long term KGB/FSB sleepers and they set this up to discredit Gromov .   Who me twisted, whatever gives you that idea.

  I forgot to say yesterday but announcing the opinion that Gromov was responsible, let alone clear preparations for military action I can see even more chaos on fiscal markets and the economy generally as fears of a much wiser and more destruction war and its economic impact, even if nukes aren't used - which a lot of people will be fearing - will be disruptive at least.

  Also you mentioned the cutting off of gas supplies to Europe.  I would suspect that Gromov's Russia will also be seeing shortfalls there and in a Russia winter as fighting started in Feburary that will have had some nasty consequences.  [Sorry that's a bit late but only just occurred to me.]

  Would guess that not all the moblised troops are heading for Europe because there are concerns that other troublemakers, such as Iraq, Iran, N Korea might seek to take advantage of the great powers being distracted.

  Steve

Thanks.
Primakov is legitimately the Russian leader (sort of anyway: no public vote for his PM role) and he will be the 'Russian' face of the war. That is what is wanted: fellow Russians doing much fighting.
He will not be best pleased to see the Baltics gone nor what else is going to happen elsewhere within the Union too! But, as far as Washington sees it, he will have to deal with it!
It looks bad, that halt order. It is seen for what it isn't - guilt - but the mistake is made. So too is the one that the US is only posturing.
The assassination plot gets some answers given in the update after the one below: tomorrow.
A heck of a lot of domestic upheaval will be taking place financially in the US at this time. Much of the country is onboard with vengeance, but not all too.
Since the civil war started, Gromov's actions with exports but also full mobilisation have destroyed the Union economically.
There are some US forces going elsewhere, yes: to meet such possible threats too. Saddam and Kim are feared to seek an advantage and Robb doesn't want to be caught with his pants down.

[James G]

18 – Ready for war


The current US Secretary of State is James Blanchard. He is a former Governor of Michigan and influential party figure who was close to Kerrey during his election campaign back in 1992. The reward for his support (fundraising nationwide and helping Kerrey win Michigan) has been his post as the nation’s top diplomat, something which had a lot of backing in Congress. Like all of the cabinet which Robb has inherited, Blanchard is being kept in-place following Kerrey’s assassination. In the long run, Blanchard expects to stay where he is though he is sure that others will not. This belief comes from him sharing the same vision as Robb does that there must be vengeance for the murder of an American president which can only be adequately addressed by going to war with the Union. Robb has had Blanchard travelling the globe to build the Coalition assembling against Gromov. However, at the same time, Blanchard follows Robb’s wishes in not alienating other countries who do not wish to go to war with the Union themselves. What Blanchard doesn’t do is bring about a ‘with us or against us’ strategy. That could have been an easy trap to fall into, especially with the majority of NATO countries not supporting an attack on the Union. Blanchard defy avoids that. Active participants many countries will not be but they will play a vital supporting role in the conflict regardless. Losing their support is not something that Blanchard does. Covering many miles through July, Blanchard does plentiful diplomatic work and there is a lot of attention on him. Somewhere he doesn’t go is to the parts of the Union under Primakov’s control.

It is Sam Nunn who goes to see Primakov though, a visit without publicity. The Secretary of Defence, before his appointment in ’93 a senator from Georgia, meets with the man who claims to be Russia’s legitimate president and the legal ruler of the Union not in Novosibirsk but instead Vladivostok. The meeting is unofficial but there is no getting around the significance of such an event. Primakov’s defence minister and new military chief (General Reut lost his life when Magnitogorsk in the Urals was evacuated) are present for briefings with a Pentagon team which has come with Nunn. Among those American attendees, one who will then afterwards travel to Omsk in western Siberia afterwards, is Lt.–General Wesley Clark. Clark won’t return home when Nunn and others do but instead stay on the West Siberian Plan where Primakov’s armies have fallen back to. He is there when the Kurganskaya offensive begins on July 27th, one which is planned to draw Gromov’s full attention back towards the east rather than have him looking west.

Home in the United States, there is that vacancy for the post of Vice President. Robb announces a candidate: Bob Graham, a senator from Florida. It had been between him and Al Gore but Robb goes with Graham. It will take some time for Congress to approve the nomination but there are no real foreseeable problems with this. The country needs a vice president and Congress knows that. While some congressmen and senators might want to raise a stink for political and party gain, Robb’s pick will surely be confirmed soon enough. It will not be before the end of the month though, as much as Robb would like to see that done. Meanwhile, there is strong public support for the president across the nation. Much of that is admittedly a sympathy matter when the public respond to pollsters because he is the successor to the deceased Kerrey. However, Robb has done much himself to earn what he has. He gives a well-received speech at the former president’s state funeral and sticks firm with his policy of facing down the Union. The public believe Robb’s allegations that Gromov in Moscow was the one who killed Kerrey and there is the wish for the Union to suffer the vengeance of the United States for this. The hunt continues for those who had a hand in that assassination. The third perpetrator is run to ground while trying to hide out in West Virginia. There is a shootout between him and those after him and this doesn’t go as easy as the capture of the lone gunman nor the other GRU operative caught in Pennsylvania. Five are left dead including him: two innocents are among the casualties too. Such deaths do nothing to dampen the rage felt across America for what Gromov is accused of doing. On the contrary, to have one of his operatives – terrorists, the White House calls them – take the lives of more Americans, this time a woman and her child, inflames public opinion more.

Across America, the general public mood is for conflict.


United States and Coalition forces continue to deploy to get ready for war. REFORGER carries on alongside other deployments. Poland fills up with troops. The north of Norway has the smaller arrival of American and British forces to join with the Norwegians. Through the Turkish Straits, on towards the Black Sea, a flotilla of US Navy warships goes. Up in the Norwegian Sea, there is likewise a naval build-up though this is out of sight of land. Into both Kuwait and South Korea, the US Armed Forces make deployments as well. These aren’t directly related to the upcoming conflict but the movements of forces to these countries is to ensure the security of American interests in case those face attacks while the United States is distracted.

Towards the end of July, a new leader takes place of the opposition Labour Party in Britain. Tony Blair is a moderniser, a reformer breaking with the past traditions of his party. Ahead of the election result, with his victory being a given, he meets with Prime Minister John Major and once more after that party election win. Blair will support Major’s government in the war with the Union that Britain is committed to taking part in. There will be no national government and the support isn’t unconditional, but with the British Armed Forces fully deployed ready for conflict, the government and opposition will work together in the national interest. The British have put a major force into Poland yet they have some troops in Norway, are making an important naval commitment in the Baltic Sea and there is an additional strong force still held at home too (air defence and internal security units). Proportionally, this matches the effort being made the Americans and likewise the Canadians too. The latter have sent troops and aircraft to Poland with ships in the Norwegian & Baltic Seas as well. It is a major commitment with support at home for this.

The Poles, Czechs, Slovaks and Hungarians – the Visegrád Group – have their armed forces ready to fight. Their countries have been opened up to the Americans and their Anglosphere Coalition partners already of the conflict starting. While each country will supply troops of their own, they are also providing much ‘host nation support’: military assistance on the ground. Poland is under martial law and so too is much of the eastern sides of Slovakia and Hungary too were each nation borders the Union. It is believed that Gromov will send in commandos to make spoiling attacks or at least observation teams. There are many alerts where reports come that such activities are underway yet, each time, those are shown to be false sightings. Gromov is doing nothing of the sort when common sense suggests that surely he should be.


There are secret alliances struck through mid- & late-July by the Americans. The Robb Administration makes deals with those willing to strike against the Union but do not wish to show their hand ahead of time. Those new partners of the Coalition come from both outside the Union and also within.

Primakov is one of those from inside the Union (if one was to look at it that way) but there are contacts established and agreements made with others. An initial Israeli tip off leads the CIA to a meeting with representatives of the political powerbrokers from the Ukraine. Their republic is in the hands of a Moscow-backed outsider who isn’t part of the cabal from Dnipropetrovsk. They’ve been wanting to rebel for some time, fearful of the consequences of staying part of the Union any longer yet also worry about having done to them what Gromov recently did to Belarus. When talking with the Americans in a clandestine meeting held in Moldova, those from Dnipropetrovsk agree to launch a revolt the moment the war starts. The Ukraine will come out in support of the Coalition once the bombs are falling and the tanks are rolling. Georgia is ready to turn on the Union. This independent country agrees to strike only once the war has started too. Shevardnadze works with both the Americans and also Primakov to strike this deal: he doesn’t want to be beholden to either side but wants the benefits which will come working from each.

The offensive in Kurganskaya sees Primakov’s armies, those which escaped the disaster in the Urals at the end of June and are now joined by more troops from the Far East, push towards Chelyabinsk. Gromov redeployed some of those fighting for him back to the west earlier in the month but those here on the eastern side of the Urals hold their own against this attack. Chelyabinsk will not be ‘liberated’ and return to Primakov’s control. The ground offensive comes alongside air and missile attacks made by each side which, as before, spread far and wide from the battlefield. Primakov has many of them launched pretty far westwards too. Bombers and medium-range ballistic missiles strike throughout European Russia. On the face of it, this looks like efforts to deny Gromov’s forces near Chelyabinsk and on the Siberian slopes of the Urals their external support. However, that isn’t the case. Many of them are targets ‘suggested’ by the Pentagon military liaison team under General Clark still in Omsk and aided by American satellite reconnaissance.

Back when he was the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, ahead of the Gulf War while serving in the Bush Administration, the current National Security Adviser drew up a set of guidelines that the United States should follow ahead of engaging in military action. A journalist called it the ‘Powell Doctrine’: Powell himself didn’t publicise them to the media. There were eight questions which needed an affirmative answer before American should go to war.

Is a vital national security interest threatened?

Do we have a clear attainable objective?

Have the risks and costs been fully and frankly analysed?

Have all other non-violent policy means been fully exhausted?

Is there a plausible exit strategy to avoid endless entanglement?

Have the consequences of our action been fully considered?

Is the action supported by the American people?

Do we have genuine broad international support?

By the end of July, Robb, his cabinet & advisers believed that each of the eight questions could be answered with a ‘yes’. There would be someone outside the White House who would disagree with selected ones especially but within, they believe that each has been met. In terms of the military opponent which they face, the Americans look at Gromov’s Union and see a weakened opponent. Involved in a wide-ranging civil war, with desertions & defections aplenty, his military forces are in a poor state. The Union has been run down as a military power through the past four years even before this internal conflict with the unforeseen transformation Lebed made into making it so weak. The opponent which the US-led Coalition faces is a paper tiger who will be torn apart by the war coming their way.


On July 31st, as Gromov continues to believe that Robb is still bluffing, despite so much evidence to the contrary, the Americans make their opening moves. There is the entry of CIA Special Activities Division personnel into the Union: they go in ahead of Green Berets or anyone else. They seek out those identified as people to work with on the ground in this war as well as head towards selected high-priority targets to mark them ahead of attack. Air and naval forces break from holding areas to move into attack positions. Across Eastern Europe, while REFORGER is now seeing the arrival of second-line American forces (and the British & Canadians are adding more too), those troops already there begin to head eastwards towards the Union frontier.

Evening comes and darkness falls. The local time reaches twenty-one hundred hours. H-Hour thus arrives. Operation Flaming Phoenix commences.


End of Part One