Blue Dawn, 1994

[stevep]

  James G ,

   Good run up to the start of war and shows that Robb is thinking things through very carefully.  Of course things will go astray and still concerned about the nuclear issue but he does seem to have a carefully balanced plan for the conflict.

  I would be surprised if Primakov's attack diverts much attention from the western build-up despite Gromov's belief that no attack is coming and its likely to weaken the Siberians but the attacks on certain targets may well help the coming offensive from the west.

  With the build up in N Norway is that purely defensive?  The only real target I could see for an offensive here would be the Northern fleet base and give the state of the Union forces that may be successful but it would force out the fleet and that includes a lot of boomers, even if a large proportion may be of limited capacity.  It only needs Gromov or simply a sub commander here to adopt a use it or lose it attitude in the face of being hunted down by western forces and things could go very bad very quickly.  Unless possibly there will be an attempt to heavily mine the approaches so they can't get out?

  Also will there be an attack on the Kaliningrad enclave?  I assume so but with Lithuania being liberated I suspect questions will be raised about its future.

  The plan is that Primakov inherits a weakened Russia, with most/all of the other 'republics' split off and probably western forces in the Baltics at least to reassure them against future attack but how much this gets dis-railed we will have to see.

  Steve

[James G]

Mar 22, 2020 9:45:28 GMT stevep said:

  James G ,

   Good run up to the start of war and shows that Robb is thinking things through very carefully.  Of course things will go astray and still concerned about the nuclear issue but he does seem to have a carefully balanced plan for the conflict.

  I would be surprised if Primakov's attack diverts much attention from the western build-up despite Gromov's belief that no attack is coming and its likely to weaken the Siberians but the attacks on certain targets may well help the coming offensive from the west.

  With the build up in N Norway is that purely defensive?  The only real target I could see for an offensive here would be the Northern fleet base and give the state of the Union forces that may be successful but it would force out the fleet and that includes a lot of boomers, even if a large proportion may be of limited capacity.  It only needs Gromov or simply a sub commander here to adopt a use it or lose it attitude in the face of being hunted down by western forces and things could go very bad very quickly.  Unless possibly there will be an attempt to heavily mine the approaches so they can't get out?

  Also will there be an attack on the Kaliningrad enclave?  I assume so but with Lithuania being liberated I suspect questions will be raised about its future.

  The plan is that Primakov inherits a weakened Russia, with most/all of the other 'republics' split off and probably western forces in the Baltics at least to reassure them against future attack but how much this gets dis-railed we will have to see.

  Steve

Yep, there are many of things that could have gone wrong - infuriated allies or betrays from those they are aiming to get to side with the Coalition - but it has all worked out. There is a plan... but it will have to survive first contact with the enemy.
Nope, that offensive isn't going to do much. The air and missile attacks will do more when striking so far westwards into European Russia though.
From Norway, there is an attack going in. It is big and ambitious. There is an anti-nuclear element to it too. All shall soon be revealed on this!
Kaliningrad will be attacked, not masked. There will rightly be a big issue over its future.
Primakov is following that American wish but he does have his own ideas too! He is also, as we will see, an ally no one would really want if they knew the truth!

[James G]

Interlude


19 – A lie


It is a lie.

A con job has been pulled off. Deception has been used. Fabrication has come into play. Framing of the innocent is done. Fiction is told. A set up has taken place. Trickery has been employed. Untruths have been spread.

The finest act of maskirovka it really is. Gromov hasn’t assassinated Kerrey: Primakov is responsible.

The United States and its allies are now attacking Gromov’s Union as vengeance for the murder of their president at what is claimed to be the work of him. Gromov and the GRU aren’t guilty though. In Novosibirsk, Primakov has made himself an ally of Robb. Yet it is him who plans the murder, sees it carried out and makes sure that Moscow receives all of the blame. The Americans will bring Gromov down and Primakov intends to return to Moscow on the back of their efforts all while being the man who is to blame for such an infamous act which starts all of this.


Why has Primakov had Kerrey assassinated? And how has he gotten away with it?

He does it to stop the certain defeat coming his way. Gromov’s armies have been winning the Battle of the Urals and preparing to enter Siberia proper. They are charging forward while his own are either taking a furious beating on the eastern side of the mountains or cut off to the west. It all looks doomed for his regime. While the exact circumstances of how this impending defeat came about isn’t foreseen ahead of time, his military chiefs had told him in the preceding months that they were facing serious danger of eventually losing. They’d advanced over the Urals in February only as a spoiling attack but ended up stuck there rather than withdrawing as soon as Gromov was able to bring up strong forces. A pull-out has become impossible and the inevitable wait for Gromov to launch an offensive had begun. Primakov has long been hoping that the Americans would intervene but Kerrey shows no overt sign of doing so. The pressure mounts upon him to find a way out of this situation. Before he was Russia’s prime minister, Primakov had long been a spy. Never was he an official officer of the Soviet Union’s KGB, yet, while codenamed MAKSIM, Primakov had worked for them in his career in academia and diplomacy. It was he who built the SVR when that foreign intelligence service had been created from anew. When moving into politics, he had left it in capable hands. Other intelligence services such as the GRU first and then the later FSB gained much attention but the SVR was still there.

The fallout from Lebed’s death – something that Primakov still believes is the work of the GRU instead of the FSB as Gromov blames them for – sees the SVR headquarters taken over by the military and the organisation closed down. Some people get away though, those who feared death at the hands of GRU murder teams and they owe Primakov a lot. While the FSB is openly established in Primakov-controlled Siberia and the Russian Far East, he quietly reorganises the SVR as best as possible with what limited resources are available to do so. Foreign intelligence operations are small yet they happen. Primakov has the SVR spy upon what the GRU is up to with its own overseas operations and in this, GRU operations in America are seen. Defectors will often come across the Urals (going through Central Asia to be fair, not physically over the mountains) and the FSB passes those who have information useful to the SVR onto them. Primakov is thus able to understand that Gromov is worried about American intervention in the Union’s civil war and monitoring them ahead of any move.

From this, a plan forms among him and his trusted spy chiefs. A way to save his regime emerges. The GRU has people in America who were there awaiting orders to act. Forged orders are sent to them from what they believe to be their own bosses. They are following what they see as legitimate instructions in preparation for an emergency action should the need arise. When the Urals fall into Gromov’s hands, Primakov takes a step which he had no wish to do but what is necessary in light of defeat on the battlefield. He sends orders down the line to those GRU people in America to kill President Kerrey. The SVR has earlier gotten a hold of the Powell Report where it shows how the Pentagon views the military weakness of the Union and there is also intelligence on the type of man that Vice President Robb was: in the right circumstances, it is understood that he will be more of a zealot when it comes to confronting Gromov than Kerrey could ever have been. Moreover, Primakov knows Gromov too. The general in Moscow would never do anything like that nor would he regard the GRU as being out of control to do this on their own. Therefore, when the Americans blame him, Gromov will no doubt act with rage at such an accusation. Primakov makes sure that the assassination is self-sabotaged among those involved (they all receive contradictory post-shooting orders that they are to keep secret from each other) and also has his own SVR officers make sure that the Americans receive the right intelligence afterwards to be able to run those involved down. When caught, they wouldn’t lie over who gave the orders because they truly believe they are acting on behalf of Moscow.

The shooting at Camp David occurs. Primakov successfully fights off the urge to straight away make strong approaches to the Americans, to provide them with even more incriminating ‘evidence’, and instead waits for them to come to him. He watches Robb from afar doing his bidding. Gromov halts his armies and the Americans go crazy as they find that as an act of guilt. When it comes to that defector who went running to the Americans via the Poles, Primakov and the SVR have absolutely nothing to do with that! It is only some time afterwards that word of this comes to Novosibirsk. That general from the edges of Gromov’s circle speaks of a GRU planned operation to kill Kerrey due to perceived pro-Primakov intervention and a belief that Robb is a weakling. He can only celebrate such a thing. He does wonder whether than man was an opportunist liar or if there was really a plan that Gromov had kept on ice – which would be quite the coincidence, wouldn’t it? – but he doesn’t know. It only helps him though. Robb is clearly looking for more evidence than Primakov managed to send his way through hidden means and that defector gave it to him. Primakov realises that it nearly didn’t all work.

It did though because, in spite of his own sprinkling of clues to find and the words of that defector, the Americans want to believe the whole charade!

All of his plans have now paid off. The Americans begin attacking the Union and Primakov is their ally. They intend for him to lead his reunited nation afterwards. There are elements of the post-conflict nation that the Americans foresee that Primakov agree with but he aims to make sure that things turn out as best as possible for him. There are things he will have to give way on but others which he will not. That will all come in time though. For now, he is having his way. Only one thing can threaten that…

…if the Americans uncover the truth, Primakov fully understands that his days on earth will come to an end!

[James G]

stevep suggested this idea of who really killed Kerrey in the thread. I didn't deny it outright because I always planned to reveal it. I have done so earlier than planned but think it is best timed now as the war starts.
It might sound crazy, too unbelievable but this is only fiction. Also, recall en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curveball_(informant)
That was one guy who fooled the US into a war. He was only one guy, not a global intelligence service. There in 2003, as here in 1994, the US President wants to see war and the evidence is moulded for that political purpose.

[James G]

Part Two – War


20 – Operation Flaming Phoenix


The Coalition air and missile strikes begins on the night of July 31st. The hours before midnight and then those afterwards before dawn witness an extraordinary attack commence against Gromov-controlled portions of the Union of Sovereign States. Many long years of planning, not just the targeting work done in the past few weeks, came to fruition in delivering a stunning blow. The Union is hit hard, over and over again.

Targets in the Moscow area are among the first hit by American air strike. There are F-117 Nighthawks over the Union’s capital, making flights from Ørland Air Base in Norway. They avoid radar detection on the way into Union airspace (and also aren’t spotted by the Swedes) and around Moscow too. The most-heavily defended city in the world has in recent months been successfully attacked by Primakov-controlled Union bombers without stealth technology. Some of those have been shot down: the F-117s aren’t engaged by air defences tonight. Bombs fall away from the invisible bombers. These are laser-guided Paveways, the latest GBU-24 & -27 models. Massive explosions rock the centre of Moscow as well as surrounding areas within the Moscow Oblast. There are high-profile regime targets at the top of the list for the F-117 strikes. The Ministry of Defence, General Staff building and GRU headquarters each are blown apart. The Kremlin is left alone though. Further targeting sees more important military targets hit: Serpukhov, Solnechnogorsk and Zarya. These are command centres for the Union’s nuclear warning systems and its air defences. The GBU-27s are used to strike these for these Paveways are ‘bunker-busters’ and the targets are below ground. In addition, the first wave of bombers over Moscow silence several other elements of the air defences that have lost overall command-and-control. Strategic SAM batteries for wide area air defence don’t threaten the F-117s but will pose a danger to further incoming aircraft which will be bringing in more bombs – heavier ones to destroy what is left of buried facilities – and those aircraft aren’t stealthy. Cluster bombs are used over these missile sites.

The Moscow air strike takes plus just after the first cruise missile attacks take place. From over the Baltic Sea, Poland, Hungary and the Black Sea, there are launches made of AGM-86 ALCM air-launched cruise missiles from B-52 Stratofortress bombers. They come nowhere near the air defences which they are targeting with a significant portion of their payloads and certainly not within sight of the internal communications arrays that the rest of their missiles streak towards. The US Navy gets in on the missile attack too. Warships and submarines undertake multiple firings of Tomahawks. The Norwegian Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea all see launches made of missiles also going after air defences as well as communications nodes. Cross attacks are made: should the missiles from one US Air Force or US Navy launch platform fail to hit one of these targets, other missiles from another platform will. The importance of smashing up these selected Union military facilities cannot be overstated. The Americans want the Union defenceless against further Coalition air strikes levelled and unable to coordinate any strike back.


More aircraft cross the Union’s frontiers. Airspace penetrations come at high and low level with single aircraft or those in large groups. Some attacks near those borders while others ‘go deep’. There are soon more aircraft over Moscow. F-111 Aardvarks, swing-wing strike-bombers, employ GBU-15 glide bombs and GBU-28 bunker-busters. There are hits on more targets across the capital as well as secondary strikes made against the high-priority buried command posts which have already been so hard hit to expose what it underneath. Zarya, the home of national air defence control, is still partially operational ahead of a pair of F-111s coming in extremely low and dropping those GBU-28s. A high point of the air campaign against Saddam back in 1991 had been using these hastily constructed weapons which were formed around old artillery barrels: they’d called them ‘Deep Throats’ four years ago because they slam far inside and explode with fury. When these bombs hit Zarya once again, it is no more. Serpukhov and Solnechnogorsk each get another dose of high explosives despite the two nuclear warning bases already destroyed: the Americans want to be sure. These Moscow attacks come alongside the entry of other F-111s as well as US Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles too. The British join in with Tornado GR1s. Such aircraft are hitting deep throughout the Union along its western side. They are attacking air defences that have already been ‘serviced’ by cruise missiles as well as striking at airbases too. Union aircraft are caught on the ground either in shelters which are smashed apart by bombs or even parked outside in the open. Did no one learn anything here from 1941!?

There are soon Union fighters in the sky though. The barrage which the air defences are under sees the Coalition fail to knock out all communications and there are a lot of airbases from where MiGs and Sukhois fly from. Emergency orders are sent out and those who receive them take to the sky. A turkey shoot commences. The Americans, British and Canadians have all put fighters into Union airspace already and they are backed by E-3 Sentry aircraft acting in the AWACS role. The Union’s own small fleet of A-50s who have their airborne radar task have been hit when cruise missiles struck their main base at Ivanovo Severny or bombed on the ground by Tornados at Baronovichi in Belarus. The E-3s direct friendly fighters towards the unfriendly ones with beyond visual range engagements (it is still night-time though) sought out rather than close-in fighters. Air-to-air missiles criss-cross the sky. Union fighters go down. It is a massacre. Ground control for those Union fighters is what they are relying upon in the absence of AWACS support but missiles & bombs continue to rain down upon radars, communications antenna and command posts. Last year, the Union’s previously separate Air Force and Air Defence Force – a holdover from the Soviet era – were merged in a move forced through by Lebed with the backing of Marshal Shaposhnikov. The latter is now with Primakov and isn’t here to witness the terrible show that the Union Air Force mounts in a failed attempt to defend their airspace. The flaming wreckages of many aircraft fall towards the ground as a result of these air battles while other pilots decide to turn and flee rather than join their doomed comrades. Many US Air Force pilots flying F-15 Eagles have become aces in single engagements.

There is another series of F-117 strikes before of midnight where those radar-defeating aircraft go all the way into the interior of the European Russia part of the Union again. They go past Moscow and make bomb runs over important strategic targets far from the western borders. Engels Air Base is blown apart with Tupolev-160 bombers out in the open there. Other important air facilities for the Union Air Force’s semi-independent Long-Range Aviation Command are Priluki in the Ukraine and Ryazan also in Russia as Engels is. At Priluki, there are a few more of those Tu-160s but also many Tu-95s – Bear bombers – who call this base home; Ryazan is home to many more bombers from training & conversion units that haven’t been sent towards the Urals battlefield. Aircraft like these have intercontinental range. They can carry conventional and nuclear weaponry with bombs and missiles capable of being used by them. The F-117s smash up these airbases and knock out such aircraft. They’ll never fly again and no longer pose any risk to the United States. Much of Long-range Aviation Command fell into Primakov’s hands at the beginning of the civil war though there are some other bombers in scattered locations away from big bases elsewhere. They will be gone after in less high-profile strikes than these because they aren’t as well concentrated nor have bene held back for possible intercontinental strikes like these ones have been.

Coalition aircraft go down during the first night. There are a lot of them in Union airspace and they are causing havoc as the hours go by. Their opponents have been caught with their pants down and are suffering. Yet, even among the immense defeat which they are taking, the Union Air Force lashes out. Some of their fighters do manage to bring down Coalition ones and there is also the mass firing of SAMs. Many of the latter are blind-fired when central command dissipates: they fire off precious ammunition and expose their positions. Down come attacking aircraft. Aircrews which survive are in now hostile territory. They try to escape-and-evade as their training dictates. Rescue efforts will be mounted for some of them but others are a very long way beyond the Union’s borders over which help for them could come if they were closer. They will not have a good time on the run: escaping detection for long doesn’t look likely.

The Union Navy is taken under fire like their Air Force comrades are. The Baltic Fleet is spread from Kronstadt (near Leningrad) to Riga to Kaliningrad. The ships are in port and there they are attacked. Cruise missiles come in first before there are air attacks. The Poles make air strikes over Kaliningrad Naval Base with other Coalition aircraft, those from Western countries, not taking part. Those attacking aircraft are Soviet-era aircraft and friendly fire is feared. Kronstadt gets a visit from the RAF after US Navy warships in the Baltic Sea have already launched waves of cruise missiles that way. Down in the Crimea, where the Union Navy has its Black Sea Fleet, here it is just a cruise missile attack. American warships fire from inside the Black Sea but also from the eastern reaches of the Med. too – the Tomahawks going over Turkey – as they empty their missile stocks to strike Sevastopol. Enemy warships are attacked in port and a flurry of explosions that rock this Crimean port city. The largest fleet is the Northern Fleet. Like the rest of the Union Navy it is in port. The Americans strike here with aircraft from their carriers. They have two of them which were at holding stations in the Norwegian Sea for several days before they began a mad dash northeast earlier today to get closer to the Kola Peninsula. This cuts down on flight time for the many aircraft which they launch. There are F-14 Tomcats for interceptor duties, F/A-18 Hornets on strike-fighter missions and A-6 Intruders undertaking bombings. These aircraft use missiles and bombs. Naval facilities are attacked alongside warships that are caught tied up alongside. Submarines are struck too. There are plenty of them, many whom the US Navy does their opponents a favour by getting rid of: so many are junk. AGM-123 Skipper short-range missiles are the preferred weapon for the A-6 strikes made against submarines. These are converted 1000lb bombs and do sterling work eliminating their targets. The blown apart submarines are those outfitted for both conventional and nuclear warfare: with the latter, all of those caught in port and blown apart in the repeated attacks made. Northern Fleet bases are spread through the Kola’s shores around Murmansk and belong in the direction on Norway. Air defences here aren’t silenced as best as possible and there are losses taken to the US Navy jets from SAMs but there are no fighters who get in among the attacking aircraft. Some do lift off from airbases yet are fast blown out of the sky when spotted by the US Navy’s own AWACS aircraft flying from their closing-up carriers.


The air strikes continue as the night goes on. Cruise missiles and laser-guided bombs are still being used yet, as the hours go by, there are increasingly air attacks made using ‘dumb bombs’. These unguided explosives are dropped by aircraft on attack missions closer to the Union’s western borders. Airbases are widely hit and so too are garrisons for troops. None of these gain the attention that the spectacular ones have yet this is all just as important. Losses come in these like they did in earlier attacks but the worst prediction for the casualty count is not met. The Union’s air defences have taken major damage and only patchy defensive efforts are now being made. Dawn on August 1st is fast approaching and the military forces of the Union need to be blasted apart as much as possible ahead of that.

While the CIA sent specialist paramilitary officers into the Union yesterday ahead of Operation Flaming Phoenix commencing, once it does start, there is the entry made of special forces teams to follow them. US Army Green Beret teams enter hostile territory with ground and air insertions. SEALs from the US Navy also make their move. The British have SAS and SBS detachments crossing the Union’s border too with penetrations made under the cover of the immense aerial barrage underway. Such deployments are risky. There has been much planning put into getting the commandos in safely yet errors have been made and there are also a few cases of bad luck. Lives are lost here among the first invaders of the Union. Some go on reconnaissance missions or to silently scout landing sites for others to follow them. There are strike missions for further teams and they quickly see action.

The Americans pinpointed Gromov’s location at the General Staff bunker outside Moscow ahead of the attack beginning. He is at the Chekhov facility, somewhere he has been spending much time in recent weeks rather than up on the Arbat: throughout his leadership, Gromov has rarely been at the Kremlin. Chekhov is somewhere that is scrubbed off the target list for the opening F-117 air strikes over Moscow. It could be hit and destroyed – a follow-up strike with those GBU-28s that the F-117s cannot themselves carry would likely be needed – but isn’t done so. Rather than sending Gromov a couple of 2000lb laser-guided bombs in the form of those GBU-27s which wreak havoc elsewhere, to Chekhov there comes a message. The famous Hotline has a terminal in the Kremlin but there is one in this bunker too. Over it, Robb sends Gromov a warning. In short, the Union’s leader is told not to use nuclear weapons. America and its allies aren’t doing so but are ready too if necessary. Gromov is directed to look at the terrible state of his remaining nuclear assets and consider how overwhelmingly strong those of America are. Robb tells him that any Union nuclear attack, one which Gromov will find nearly impossible to make, will be met with a massive counterstrike.

Robb doesn’t say in his message that if he had wanted to, he could have killed Gromov by hitting the Chekhov bunker. There is no need to do that: it is already clear by the destruction caused nearby to other so-called protected sites. He doesn’t kill Gromov because he wants him to remain in control of what nuclear forces that the Union has. There are ICBMs, other land-based ballistic missiles, Tu-22 & Tu-95 bombers not caught on the ground, two strategic missile submarines at sea and then a whole host of tactical nuclear weapons. The latter include everything from bombs which can be dropped by strike aircraft to artillery shells & rocket warheads to weapons aboard what few warships & submarines not caught in port and yet to be sunk. The Union has a lot of them. Many of the Soviet-era weapons were decommissioned in the past few years while both Primakov and Nazarbayev have taken command of many more. Still, Gromov still has a plentiful supply. He’s just lost a lot of his delivery capability but still can use what is left to strike almost anywhere in the world. If he was dead, who knows who will take control and what they will do. Robb is banking upon Gromov not responding to a second Barbarossa with nukes.

That is what is begins at dawn: another Barbarossa. Eight hours of overnight air attacks are followed by a ground invasion. This isn’t the like the Gulf War was with weeks of an air campaign before a follow-up ground offensive will begin. The American-led Coalition is doing things very differently. Operation Flaming Phoenix moves to its second stage with haste. The Union’s borders are crossed with overland, airborne and seaborne incursions starting.

The war to avenge the killing of President Kerrey, with all blame apportioned to the innocent Gromov, is now in full swing.

[James G]

The tanks will start rolling in tomorrow's update.
Then, afterwards, we will see the 'flank' attacks made.

[forcon]

Good work! Reminds me of Iraq in 1991 yet on an even larger scale. This is more like 2003 though, with the ground offensive beginning right away. This might be more sensible for the Allies, given that even in it's current state, Russia is so big that a bombing campaign to destroy its infrastructure ala 1991 & WW2 is impossible.

[James G]

Mar 22, 2020 20:23:46 GMT forcon said:

Good work! Reminds me of Iraq in 1991 yet on an even larger scale. This is more like 2003 though, with the ground offensive beginning right away. This might be more sensible for the Allies, given that even in it's current state, Russia is so big that a bombing campaign to destroy its infrastructure ala 1991 & WW2 is impossible.

Thanks.
They are going to take many by surprise by doing this. They are not destroying everything too because they want someone to take charge.
Did you see update #19 above? That is the man who the plan is to hand over this beat up Russia to!

[forcon]

Mar 22, 2020 20:29:45 GMT James G said:

Mar 22, 2020 20:23:46 GMT forcon said:

Good work! Reminds me of Iraq in 1991 yet on an even larger scale. This is more like 2003 though, with the ground offensive beginning right away. This might be more sensible for the Allies, given that even in it's current state, Russia is so big that a bombing campaign to destroy its infrastructure ala 1991 & WW2 is impossible.

Thanks.
They are going to take many by surprise by doing this. They are not destroying everything too because they want someone to take charge.
Did you see update #19 above? That is the man who the plan is to hand over this beat up Russia to!

I actually managed to miss #19 but I just went back to give it a read and...wow, what a twist! It would be very awkward indeed if the truth were to come out half way through the war. What would be the protocol at that point? Switch sides? If and when the truth comes out, it will be so much bigger than Iraq. 

[James G]

Mar 22, 2020 20:57:46 GMT forcon said:

Mar 22, 2020 20:29:45 GMT James G said:

Thanks.
They are going to take many by surprise by doing this. They are not destroying everything too because they want someone to take charge.
Did you see update #19 above? That is the man who the plan is to hand over this beat up Russia to!

I actually managed to miss #19 but I just went back to give it a read and...wow, what a twist! It would be very awkward indeed if the truth were to come out half way through the war. What would be the protocol at that point? Switch sides? If and when the truth comes out, it will be so much bigger than Iraq. 

When they find out - not if - then there will quite the reaction indeed.
This will not be something brushed aside.
That is in the future though, certainly at the most inappropriate moment too.

[stevep]

Mar 22, 2020 21:55:27 GMT James G said:

Mar 22, 2020 20:57:46 GMT forcon said:

I actually managed to miss #19 but I just went back to give it a read and...wow, what a twist! It would be very awkward indeed if the truth were to come out half way through the war. What would be the protocol at that point? Switch sides? If and when the truth comes out, it will be so much bigger than Iraq. 

When they find out - not if - then there will quite the reaction indeed.
This will not be something brushed aside.
That is in the future though, certainly at the most inappropriate moment too.

  James G,

  Ah that is the question I was going to ask.  Its definitely going to be a serious embarrassment for the west, that they smash up a large chunk of the Union and deposed an innocent [albeit unpleasant] leader and are in the process of putting the actual killer of President Kerrey in power in Moscow.  Going to be a lot of egg on faces and will they be able to do a 180 and seek to depose Primakov.  Also going to be a lot of angry Russians, both those who were supporting Gromov and those supporting Primakov who either don't believe that he was responsible or simply don't care as they want the western powers out both of Russia and as many of the other republics as they can get their hands on.  Also public support both for the war and for the leaders who started it is going to take a hit.

  Robb has probably done the right thing in keeping Gromov alive although since he can't be expected to survive his defeat it could be very risky before he goes down.  Also the danger with the destruction of so much communication and control facilities is that some local commander, especially if he thinks all is lost, could decide to use his initiative although that's probably a bit less likely with a Russian/Soviet commander than some of the western ones.

  Looks like its going to end up an unpleasant ride for everybody. 

  Steve

[James G]

Mar 23, 2020 9:35:56 GMT stevep said:

Mar 22, 2020 21:55:27 GMT James G said:

When they find out - not if - then there will quite the reaction indeed.
This will not be something brushed aside.
That is in the future though, certainly at the most inappropriate moment too.

  James G ,

  Ah that is the question I was going to ask.  Its definitely going to be a serious embarrassment for the west, that they smash up a large chunk of the Union and deposed an innocent [albeit unpleasant] leader and are in the process of putting the actual killer of President Kerrey in power in Moscow.  Going to be a lot of egg on faces and will they be able to do a 180 and seek to depose Primakov.  Also going to be a lot of angry Russians, both those who were supporting Gromov and those supporting Primakov who either don't believe that he was responsible or simply don't care as they want the western powers out both of Russia and as many of the other republics as they can get their hands on.  Also public support both for the war and for the leaders who started it is going to take a hit.

  Robb has probably done the right thing in keeping Gromov alive although since he can't be expected to survive his defeat it could be very risky before he goes down.  Also the danger with the destruction of so much communication and control facilities is that some local commander, especially if he thinks all is lost, could decide to use his initiative although that's probably a bit less likely with a Russian/Soviet commander than some of the western ones.

  Looks like its going to end up an unpleasant ride for everybody. 

  Steve

The revelation will be a disaster! It really will come at the wrong time. But then, the Union will be blasted to bits and people within will already not like their new lords & masters. How it goes out to the US and Western public will be something to see.
I was unsure about Gromov but thought it best. This whole mess came about due to leadership grabs and civil war too. The US wants an enemy to beat and get to surrender.

[James G]

21 – Running start


General Barry McCaffrey holds the post of Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), which makes him the military head of NATO in Europe. McCaffrey is dual-hatted though: his second position sees him in charge of European Command (EURCOM). This is one of the United States Armed Forces’ global unified combatant commands. American military forces in Europe are all his responsibility whether he acts as SACEUR or in the name of EURCOM. Appointed late last year, just after American forces took the step of crossing the former Iron Curtain to base themselves in Eastern Europe, McCaffrey has overseen many deployment & operational combat plans being drawn up which undertaking his two jobs. None of those are put to use today. Acting in his EURCOM role, McCaffrey’s NATO forces is not taking part in Operation Flaming Phoenix and nor is this a EURCOM-drafted plan. The Pentagon-created ‘General War Plan – Union (Russia)’ is being followed, something generated by those back at the Defence Department among the senior staff he was serving upon before coming to Europe back last October. He is in command of the attack made eastwards into Gromov’s Union of Sovereign States following their work.

A running start is made at dawn on August 1st. McCaffrey’s assigned forces which are deployed through Eastern Europe, yet also beyond too, have spent several weeks building up ready to go into the Union. That is not yet fully complete though. They are not all fully in-the-field not positioned in any recognisable attack echelons as has often been seen throughout the history of warfare. It could be said that they are attacking early. In recent days, GRU intelligence analysts and General Staff senior officers have been paying attention as the increase in American and allied forces goes on. Watching them assemble, they have submitted many reports which have firmly stated that an invasion is out of the question with regards to the dispositions of McCaffrey’s forces. The thinking has been that such a thing is only possible when there is a complete assembly. Moreover, Union war-plans believe that there will be a long air campaign first should the West be ever so foolish and strike: this will give them time to move forward their own forces too. Concerned Gromov has been when he has received these reports about the build-up, naturally, but he has maintained the belief that no attack is coming anyway. More fool him.

Pity too his underlings who are going to have to eat their words!

Given the attack order, Coalition forces go into the attack from the rear. They move from staging areas in the far back and travel some distance towards the frontiers which they then go over. Air power and artillery strikes are used ahead of them and there are also special forces units opening the way in many instances. McCaffrey knows that the risk being run by doing this is immense but it gives that attack surprise at both the tactical and the operational levels, more than just in the strategic sense. He has agreed with the Pentagon that this plan of theirs will really catch the Union unawares. That will therefore make up for his ground forces not being able to bring everything to bear upon their opponents all at once the moment the invasion starts.


The Poles attack into Kaliningrad. They have four full divisions of mechanised troops – tanks and armoured vehicles; all Soviet-manufactured gear – with their III Corps. Only two of those are near the frontier between Poland and that coastal region beside the Baltic which belongs to the Russian Republic but is physically separated by other Union republics. The second pair will not reach the area for another day. The Poles drive up to the border and crash through. They engage Border Troops (the Union’s Interior Ministry controls these) though soon enough make contact with Union regulars. Gromov has the Eleventh Guards Army in Kaliningrad though much of that field army is spread back into Lithuania too. On paper, the Poles outnumber them. Breaking into Kaliningrad is no easy feat though. Furious, bloody fighting commences. There is liberal use of firepower by the attackers where the Poles themselves, aided by the Americans in the skies who support them with A-10s and F-16s, blast anything in-sight. There are soon some breakthroughs made as the Poles open up the centre. The Polish III Corps gets one of its divisions through the middle while being unable to make any serious progress along the Bay of Gdansk towards the city of Kaliningrad with the other. Still, doing what they do, they are having success. The Eleventh Guards Army is unable to properly respond. They can only fall back and this quickly leaves those on the western side of the region exposed to a flank attack to add to the frontal one which they have held off. Within a few hours of going into the attack, the Polish III Corps is joined by immediate reinforcements ahead of the rest of its heavy divisions. There is a lighter brigade of Poles – the 7th Coastal Defence Brigade – which come into that gap and so too a mixed American-British force: the 198th Infantry Brigade. US Army troops from West Berlin are joined by some Britons from that German city (all were supposed to leave this summer) in a unit added to the Poles to stiffen them. They come forward too, turning west like those additional Poles here to try and if not take the city of Kaliningrad from behind with haste while its defenders are looking the wrong way, then at least isolate them by reaching the sea.

Outside the Lithuanian city of Kaunas, the airport there has sat unused for several years now. The crushing of Lithuanian independence had seen no use made of the facility. An SAS team is inserted overnight and confirmed what satellite reconnaissance done by the Americans has shown: the place is undefended. Flying low through a gap in the shattered Union air defences, a RAF Hercules C3 rolled for special forces tasks drops another British unit into Lithuania. This is the Pathfinder Platoon, an elite British parachute reconnaissance force. Specialist RAF signallers jump with them with that LOLO drop. The airport is marked and soon enough come more transports. Men from 1 PARA begin the main assault. They come ready for a fight – thee SAS and Pathfinder Platoon could each have screwed something up – in what is the first major combat parachute jump for British Paras since Operation Musketeer over Egypt back in 1956. There is no one at the airport who wants a fight though. It is taken over fast. Now in flies more of the brigade to which 1 PARA is assigned – the 5th Airborne Brigade – with men who will deplane from additional Hercules’ rather than make a hazardous jump. As more British soldiers arrive by air, 1 PARA units are already moving forward. They have landed northeast of this Lithuanian city. There are road, rail and (navigable) river links which converge all upon Kaunas. Combat is met soon enough with Union troops in Kaunas. The British have control over much of the transport infrastructure by this point and fight to take more of it, joined by additional 5th Airborne Brigade troops rushing down from the airport including soon enough light armoured vehicles from the Blues & Royals and heavy guns with the 7th Regiment Royal Horse Artillery. The fight is won in quite the fashion by 1 PARA though it is costly for them and civilians caught in cross-fire. Taking Kaunas’s transport links is important because those here are meant to be soon relieved after holding open the way ahead. The British I Corps moves up towards the Polish-Lithuanian border from deep inside Poland. The 1st Armoured Division is out front. This Germany-based formation charges forward and is soon enough entering Lithuania. Challenger tanks and Scimitar scout vehicles are supported by Lynx attack helicopters and also RAF Harriers when they begin engagements with border guards first and soon to be further parts of the Eleventh Guards Army. The task set is for the 1st Armoured Division to reach Kaunas long before the end of daylight. They will be followed by the rest of the British I Corps: the 3rd Mechanised & 6th Airborne Division (the latter to which the 5th Airborne Brigade is assigned) are already in Poland after moving from the UK in recent weeks while there is too the 2nd Infantry Division which is a formation almost entirely of TA reservists. In the Low Countries and Germany they still are: far behind but on their way here as fast as possible.

Those Poles and British are under the overall command of the Polish Second Army: the corps equate to a Union field army and this Coalition army would be what Gromov’s military would call an army group or a Front. There is a British deputy – holding much responsibility – to the overall Polish commander. Next to them in the line of attack, on their right & to the south, is the Seventh United States Army. There are Americans, Canadians and Poles under command though with the US Army Germany fulfilling almost the entire top level of command there. The Seventh Army goes into Belarus with three corps-sized attacks made. Not all the component parts of each of them are close to the Union border when this begins.

The US V Corps attacks eastwards through northern Belarus. They come out of Poland and aim for the distant city Minsk while intending to use the Belarus-Lithuanian border as their operational boundary. First in is the 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment. They crash through the border at a lightning pace and charge deep inside Belarus. Anything that looks like the enemy is blasted. The 2nd Cav’ have their own helicopters – AH-64 Apache gunships – under command while they also have US Air Force jets on-call. Union border troops encountered (ones brought up last month from the Ukrainian-Romanian frontier after so many of the locals here deserted to Poland) do not stand a chance when the Americans engage them with the cannons on the M-1A1 Abrams tanks and M-3 Bradley’s use chain guns & missiles. Those on the ground here get what the helicopters and aircraft miss. The city of Grodno and towns in the border areas around which the communications links run aren’t sought to be taken by the US V Corps’ lead element. They are hunting for the enemy instead: Gromov’s Thirteenth Army (also up from the Ukraine when Belarus-based armies are elsewhere; the Baltics and the Urals) is raced towards. When the 2nd Cav’ make contact, the main fight with them will be handled by those following. The US V Corps consists of Germany-based heavy units of the US Army. The 1st Armored & 1st Infantry & 3rd Divisions form the main fighting strength along with the 1st Canadian Division. The first two formations are the ones which will immediately follow into Belarus to start fighting; the other two are some distance back with the Canadians unfortunately still not up to full fighting strength after trans-Atlantic deployment delays. Tearing through the border region of Belarus, and making several crossings over the Neuman River where bridges are taken without any serious opposition, the 2nd Cav’ soon enough begins to make contact with the opponent which they have come here to fight. Tank-on-tank engagements begin to appear. Apaches and A-10s race in ahead of the heavy units coming up behind to support the 2nd Cav’ now it has met the enemy. 1st Armored Division tanks are with haste soon getting involved too.

The Polish II Corps – there divisions strong – enter the southwestern corner of Belarus. They go over the border near to Brest. This region is steeped in history as a battlefield of many wars throughout the centuries. There is contact fast made with Thirteenth Army units here. They are forward deployed and regarded in Poland as a direct threat to Poland’s independence due to Brest being seen as a natural jumping off point for an invasion heading towards Warsaw. The Poles have struck first though. They come at Brest directly in a feint attack but the main effort by them is to cross the Bug River either side. Polish paratroopers use assault helicopters – Soviet-designed machines with many of them built in Cold War Poland though – rather than airborne drops. They secure the eastern sides of the Bug to allow for the Polish II Corps’ planned envelopment movement to take Brest from behind. The enemy is quickly met. Union troops around Brest fire into Polish territory on the defence and also respond well to the flank attacks, especially the southernmost ones. The Poles come unstuck in the latter move and suffer immense casualties. The northern pincer has more luck though. A regiment of tanks – T-72s – crosses over once engineers have set up bridges while defended by paratroopers. Polish Air Force jets stream in… and unfortunately hit several friendly tanks too. A major fight incurs when the Thirteenth Army gets troops and tanks of their own – more T-72s – out of Brest to try to halt this attack. Further friendly fire incidents occur due to misidentification. Still, the Poles have the numbers on the ground and in the air. They move forward and start surrounding Brest from behind. The ring will not be complete due to the halting of the southern pincer yet there is still victory here won soon enough. Union forces flee east if they can or otherwise fall back into Brest. The plan is for that city to be masked, not besieged and stormed. The Polish II Corps’ objectives are much further east than just Brest.

Between them and the US V Corps, the US XVIII Corps makes their opening move. The 11th Armored Cavalry Regiment enters Belarus south of the Polish city of Bialystok and they will be followed soon enough by the 24th Infantry Division: the larger unit being the one which McCaffrey commanded in the Gulf War and won fame with. Far out ahead of this border fight is an airborne drop. The 82nd Airborne Division – to be later followed by the 101st Airborne Division too – begins landing in west-central Belarus. Green Berets initially and then Rangers next secure entry. Their primary airhead is the Union Air Force’s airbase at Baronovichi. It has been attacked overnight though not too heavily and with the aim of killing aircraft based there, not smashing the facility up. American paratroopers begin to land there. They also secure a secondary site just to the west around Slonim. That town has an unused airstrip and is close enough to Baronovichi to be of use in a mutual support role. The Rangers have overcome the defending forces – Union Air Force ground personnel – first and there is much air cover. Those arriving either by parachute drops at first and then soon being airlifted in come under attack though. Several transports are shot down with more than half of those which are brought crashing to the ground still laden with men & gear on the way in when hit. Man-portable SAMs from undetected enemy as well as Union fighter-interceptors launching missiles at distance inflict many losses. The first taste of war while in Belarus for the 82nd Airborne Division is to see these casualties occur. Yet, they fan out away from their airheads and soon come into contact with identified enemy units nearby.

Transferred from Fort Sam Houston in Texas is the headquarters for the Fifth United States Army. Usually with a CENTCOM task, this army group command came to Europe as part of REFORGER through July. Its American component of ground forces is the US III Corps. Those are all US-based troops with near-complete equipment sets for the units at POMCUS sites this side of the North Atlantic. For combat forces, the US III Corps has four divisions, an independent armoured brigade and a Cav’ regiment. Less than half of those are within reachable distance of the Union’s border with Poland this morning. Much of that ‘intelligence’ on the American’s apparent ill-readiness for war that Gromov has been presented with comes from their incomplete deployment towards the Ukraine’s frontiers. What those observing them don’t realise was that this is done for both deception purposes and also the poor assessment that the Americans all the way up to McCaffrey have of the Union’s Thirty–Eighth Army. This weak, understrength field army is covering much ground in a defensive position where it is malemployed by quite the margin. The US III Corps goes only after a portion of that opponent with the aim of taking those Union troops on straight away while using up only a small portion of their own strength. The 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment, followed by two-thirds of the 2nd Armored Division, goes over the border. The northwestern portion of the Ukraine is invaded this morning. The 3rd Cav’ is fast into the fight. It leads those trailing into battle to where Thirty–Eighth Army elements have been identified so they can be torn through. Both air power and the 3rd Cav’ have already done so much but when the 2nd Armored Division gets at what Union forces had survived those engagements, it is all over quick. The defenders are crushed. They are run through after being blasted apart. The US III Corps begins its main advance now. The communications centres of Kovel and Lutsk are up ahead where the roads running east go. Beyond them, on the Dnieper River, is Kiev. That is where the Americans are going. More of the corps will be brought up by then – the 1st Cavalry & 4th Infantry & 5th Infantry Divisions – yet for now those who’ve got over the border and won their first fights charge further ahead into the Ukraine.

The Polish I Corps and the Eastern European Corps attack into the Ukraine south of where the US III Corps do. They go over the border towards where the rest of the Thirty–Eighth Army is all the way down to Romania. The Poles have a trio of combat divisions on strength with their corps while the Czechs, Hungarians & Slovaks have a wide collection of units totalling up to four more. There is a brigade of US Army reservists – the 157th Infantry Brigade – with the latter. Border guards and Union troops are met. Lvov is where the Polish I Corps push towards. They make progress but the going is not very fast. Stubborn resistance is encountered by them. Those Americans come out of Slovakia into the Ukrainian region of Ruthenia. Allied forces are all around them though they head into battle first with their commander eager to get the fighting over with fast but with care. He uses the moves made by his allies out in the open to hide his own cross-country move. Mukachevo has an airbase that has been bombed overnight but also a garrison where there is a regiment of motorised riflemen supported by tanks. As expected, that unit begins to move out of barracks. It is attacked from above by aircraft when it starts to deploy and then the 157th Infantry Brigade comes at them along with some Czech mobile missile teams for added support. The Battle of Mukachevo is fast won. Reservists these men are but they are well-equipped and well-trained. After this, there are no more Union troops in number this side of the Carpathians. The Eastern European Corps begins to enter the Ukraine fully and will go with those Americans through already secured mountain passes – Green Berets are there – to join the Polish I Corps fighting in the western part of this Union republic that is starting to erupt in revolt against Moscow.


McCaffrey’s starting attack is from the Baltic Sea to the Romanian border. It is huge and has yet to employ half of what he has on-hand. Nowhere are his armies stopped cold. Slowed and left bleeding in some places but not brought to a halt or even beaten back.

This is only the centre of the attack into the Union though. The flanks of Gromov-controlled territory are hit as well by other forces under his control as Operation Flaming Phoenix comes at the Union from all sides.

[forcon]

It's going well for now. The 10th SFG must be very busy with all those Eastern European forces. In Desert Storm, CENTCOM had Alpha Teams assigned to the Coalition forces (excluding British & French units) down to the battalion level to call in airstrikes and advise Allied commanders from the nations with less reputable militaries. I would think they're doing the same with the Poles and Czechs.

[stevep]

   James G ,

   Well that's an impressive start and the reference to rebellion in the Ukraine suggests that some of those political contacts earlier are coming into play.  That could be very useful in speeding the collapse of Gromov's forces there and open up a massive hole in the defences, as well as remove a hell of a lot of resources from his state.  Presumably one high priority would be securing the nuclear launch sites in the area?

  This is similar to what the Soviets did in your previous TL, with an attack from bases and further back to take the opponents by surprise.  Working very well again here helped by the disorder inside the Union.

  In terms of the flanks obviously one will be around Murmansk.  I don't know if anything would happen via Turkey into Armenia and Georgia or whether it would be more amphibious into say the Crimean.  Unless their trying to work with Nazarbayev and striking through Kazakhstan to turn the flank of Gromov's forces that had been driving into Siberia but that could be being too ambitious at this point.

  Anyway looking forward to developments, as long as you can keep those damned nukes under control this time please?

  Steve