stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 7, 2020 11:45:37 GMT
The only serious downside, assuming he could avoid assassination in 2001 and later, is that he comes from the northern Tajik, Persian speaking minority. Given the intensely tribal nature of the country and the dominance of the Pashtun who are demographically the dominant group as well as historically the politically most influential. Also while in office as defence minister prior to the Taliban invasion he also clashed with the Irani extremists who made repeatedly terrorist attacks on the country.
As such unless he can build a stable coalition, which might be difficult as I suspect both Pakistan and Iran would seek to undermine it, Afghanistan could continue to struggle for desperately needed stability.
Didn't Iran support the Northern Alliance? I remember the support of the NA was Russia, India, Turkey, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan prior to the U.S. intervention. Massoud surviving his assassination would probably see another one occurring. Most likely the ISI of Pakistan would be responsible for it as we know the Pakistanis want to keep Afghanistan within its sphere of influence. Had Massoud became the first prime minister of a newly established Republic of Afghanistan, then Afghanistan today would be like what is was in the 1960s: fairly liberal and women more free.
Quite possibly. I was going by the comments in his wiki article that one of the factions he had to fight in the pre-Taliban period was the Hezbe Wahdat Shia militias, which had some backing from Iran, although it gained a fair amount of independence from Iran. However I can see Iran supporting a more moderate figure such as Massoud against the hard line Sunnis of the Taliban.
If he had become PM rather than Defence minister there would still have been a huge problem of clashing factions and corruption, along with groups such as Hezbe Wahdat which felt excluded and others who wanted the top job so a fair amount of chaos and [bloody] inflight is I fear too likely. Whether it could be controlled, especially with Pakistan not wanting a peaceful Afghanistan I don't know but it would have been a hell of a lot better for the people in the country as well as probably much of the rest of the world.
Steve
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jul 7, 2020 11:54:30 GMT
Didn't Iran support the Northern Alliance? I remember the support of the NA was Russia, India, Turkey, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan prior to the U.S. intervention. Massoud surviving his assassination would probably see another one occurring. Most likely the ISI of Pakistan would be responsible for it as we know the Pakistanis want to keep Afghanistan within its sphere of influence. Had Massoud became the first prime minister of a newly established Republic of Afghanistan, then Afghanistan today would be like what is was in the 1960s: fairly liberal and women more free.
Quite possibly. I was going by the comments in his wiki article that one of the factions he had to fight in the pre-Taliban period was the Hezbe Wahdat Shia militias, which had some backing from Iran, although it gained a fair amount of independence from Iran. However I can see Iran supporting a more moderate figure such as Massoud against the hard line Sunnis of the Taliban.
If he had become PM rather than Defence minister there would still have been a huge problem of clashing factions and corruption, along with groups such as Hezbe Wahdat which felt excluded and others who wanted the top job so a fair amount of chaos and [bloody] inflight is I fear too likely. Whether it could be controlled, especially with Pakistan not wanting a peaceful Afghanistan I don't know but it would have been a hell of a lot better for the people in the country as well as probably much of the rest of the world.
Steve
Massoud was wary of the U.S. too. He knew that any U.S. interference in Afghanistan might be a sign of imperialism. He was welcome of aid coming from America but up until 2001, the U.S. only provided ample support towards the NA. Further reading: Russians Are Back in Afghanistan, Aiding RebelsLast known interview with Afghanistan’s Ahmad Shah Massoud |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jul 7, 2020 15:49:40 GMT
Quite possibly. I was going by the comments in his wiki article that one of the factions he had to fight in the pre-Taliban period was the Hezbe Wahdat Shia militias, which had some backing from Iran, although it gained a fair amount of independence from Iran. However I can see Iran supporting a more moderate figure such as Massoud against the hard line Sunnis of the Taliban.
If he had become PM rather than Defence minister there would still have been a huge problem of clashing factions and corruption, along with groups such as Hezbe Wahdat which felt excluded and others who wanted the top job so a fair amount of chaos and [bloody] inflight is I fear too likely. Whether it could be controlled, especially with Pakistan not wanting a peaceful Afghanistan I don't know but it would have been a hell of a lot better for the people in the country as well as probably much of the rest of the world.
Steve
Massoud was wary of the U.S. too. He knew that any U.S. interference in Afghanistan might be a sign of imperialism. He was welcome of aid coming from America but up until 2001, the U.S. only provided ample support towards the NA. Further reading: Russians Are Back in Afghanistan, Aiding RebelsLast known interview with Afghanistan’s Ahmad Shah Massoud
That interview, while true he may have been playing to the audience a bit, shows how much Afghanistan lose where Mussoud was murdered.  |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Jul 16, 2020 9:54:47 GMT
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