Realistic and Unusual Scenario for a Communist USA?

[gillan1220]

Nov 24, 2020 5:13:49 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

The Venezuela Crisis of 1902-03 might be a good starting point for a USA to end up being tangled into a conflict with the European powers. However, the US might be a bit exhausted from the recent Philippine-American War and would not want to risk another conflict where they would certainly be defeated. However, the US might also justify the Monroe Doctrine as fact when the blockade occurs. If a general war between the US against Britain, Germany and maybe Italy, then it is most certain that Japan might also enter this conflict, but taking an opportunity to either support Philippine independence (only to turn them into their puppet state a la Manchukuo), or outright annex the country. Alternatively, they could go the Korea route with the Philippines with establishing them as their protectorate before launching their shenanigans that would lead to a Japanese annexation of the Philippines. Conversely, it might be too busy paying attention to their new acquisition down south to care about Korea and Russia instead becomes Korea's informal overlord. Or another alternative scenario would be that Russia and Japan would come to terms with Manchuria coming under Russian influence while Korea comes under Japanese influence.

Another angle to this would have been to keep President MacKinley alive by avoiding the assassination attempt, or have William Jennings Bryan win the 1900 US Presidential election instead. Having Bryan as President might certainly butterfly the annexations of the Philippines and Hawaii, instead supporting their governments (though in reality they might turn them into puppet states). Then have the American Anti-Imperialist League become infiltrated by leftists to the point where they would use said league to push for a revolutionary version of enforcing the Monroe Doctrine.

Actually, the First Philippine Republic (1898-1901) was friendly towards Japan since the Japanese had a long-term goal to drive the Europeans out of Asia. I could not see Japan annexing the entire Philippines at this period. She wasn't the strong power she would be in two generations. Since Aguinaldo saw the Japanese as allies, it would most likely be a satellite state or for the lack of better words, a pro-Japanese independent republic. The following article says the following regarding Filipino-Japanese relations:

With the outbreak ofthe Philippine-American War in 1898, liaison between the Japanese shishi and the Filipino continued. Mariano Ponce (with some help from Sun Yat Sen) was able to procure funds and purchased Japanese weapons and a ship to transport the weapons to the Philippines. The arms were ostensi- bly sold to a Japanese company and then consigned to a German merchant as thefinal recipient. The ship itself was bought through Sun Y at Sen. The ship, the Nunobiki Mam, was an aged wooden vessel. It left Kobe for Nagasaki where it loaded 10,000 Murata rifles, six million rounds of ammunition, a few pieces of artillery and miscellaneous military equipment, and then proceeded to the Philippines. There were a number of ex-Japanese army officers on board who had resigned from the Japanese army so they could help Aguinaldo in a private capacity rather than follow Japanese official policy. However, almost like comical twist to the episode, the ship encountered a typhoon and sank off Shanghai. Thus, ended the only major-scale Japanese involvement in the Revolution.

Perhaps we can have a POD where the Filipino-American War becomes America's earlier Vietnam or Afghanistan-style of conflict. Remember in our timeline, the U.S. took 15 years to pacify the Moro Rebellion (1898-1913) in the south of the Philippines (see video below). This rebellion ended on June 15, 1913, almost just a year before World War I.

How Did these Warriors Continue to Fight when Shot?



MORO Rebellion | Philippine American War



The only way this would have worked is if Japan or Imperial Germany sent more arms and aid to the Filipino rebels. By having the Filipino-American War extend into the 1910s and thus becoming a front of WWI (we could see American clashes over this area with Germany in the Pacific), the Americans back home would be overextended and war-weary. With the rise of communism in Russia, we could see that disenfranchised Americans slowly lean to socialist ideas.

[stevep]

Nov 24, 2020 4:25:37 GMT gillan1220 said:

Cody of The Alternate History Hub made a scenario of this. I'll let you decide if it is realistic or not.

What if the Soviets Won the Cold War? (Part 1)



What if the Soviets Won the Cold War? (Part 2)

  gillan1220,

  I would agree with what Cody says that both assumptions are unlikely, i.e. the USSR surviving and the US falling to communism.   Would agree that if the US was to become communist, other than somehow losing a WWIII with enough left to form an actual state its likely to be something like this.  If somehow both happened I'm not sure whether the US would be able to impose its form of communism on western Europe.  That would be vulnerable but might manage to establish a balancing role between the two titans as neither would want the area under the control of the other.  At least for a while.  Especially since both Britain and France have nuclear weapons.  Fear it would be the end for democracy in Canada however.

  Not sure how long either/both would survive as communism is even more flawed than hard line capitalism as both reject a role for ordinary people but with two faltering autocratic nuclear super-powers things could get very nasty when one falls.

  Steve

[gillan1220]

Nov 24, 2020 13:46:50 GMT stevep said:

Nov 24, 2020 4:25:37 GMT gillan1220 said:

Cody of The Alternate History Hub made a scenario of this. I'll let you decide if it is realistic or not.

What if the Soviets Won the Cold War? (Part 1)



What if the Soviets Won the Cold War? (Part 2)

  gillan1220 ,

  I would agree with what Cody says that both assumptions are unlikely, i.e. the USSR surviving and the US falling to communism.   Would agree that if the US was to become communist, other than somehow losing a WWIII with enough left to form an actual state its likely to be something like this.  If somehow both happened I'm not sure whether the US would be able to impose its form of communism on western Europe.  That would be vulnerable but might manage to establish a balancing role between the two titans as neither would want the area under the control of the other.  At least for a while.  Especially since both Britain and France have nuclear weapons.  Fear it would be the end for democracy in Canada however.

  Not sure how long either/both would survive as communism is even more flawed than hard line capitalism as both reject a role for ordinary people but with two faltering autocratic nuclear super-powers things could get very nasty when one falls.

  Steve

A Communist America vs the USSR would mirror the Sino-Soviet rivalry in OTL. In Cody's case, the Soviets would see American communism as being a product of "revisionist scumbags" just like how it viewed Maoism. Conflict would be inevitable.

[stevep]

Nov 24, 2020 5:13:49 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

Nov 22, 2020 15:46:48 GMT stevep said:

  From about 1900 to possibly 1960 - after which invasion of a nuclear devastated US while unlikely is theoretically possible - I would say extremely unlikely.  There is an outside chance that Britain, possibly allied with other powers could do it especially with say a different WWI but its likely to be very bloody for both sides. 

  Before 1900 there are nations other than Britain that might have a chance but their options would be restricted by rivalries in Europe as well as the substantial task of transferring and maintaining at the least a few hundred thousand men in the continental US.  France before 1870 or Germany after say 1880 as the empire really industrialises would be possible options but they would need a serious motive for such a massive operation and even when Germany was still allied with both Russia and Austria could it risk sending a substantial proportion of its forces to N America with an hostile France and an uncertain Britain on its doorstep.  Especially since both those powers had much larger navies than Germany at this time and a geographical advantage so they could very likely isolate the German forces in N America, leading to their eventual defeat.

  One possible other option might be the Venezuelan_crisis_of_1902-03, in which following a coup in the country the new junta defaulted on its debts and prompted Britain, Germany and Italy to blockade the country for several months.  Its possible that a more aggressive US claiming that this breached the Monroe Doctrine could have stumbled into a war with the alliance and if it had attacked Canada prompted a more general war.  Here the alliance would have big advantages of vastly superior army [Germany] and navy [Britain] plus control of nitrate supplies.  However the alliance would have to consider the stances of France and Russia, even if the US action was widely seen as a breach of international diplomacy.

  Steve

The Venezuela Crisis of 1902-03 might be a good starting point for a USA to end up being tangled into a conflict with the European powers. However, the US might be a bit exhausted from the recent Philippine-American War and would not want to risk another conflict where they would certainly be defeated. However, the US might also justify the Monroe Doctrine as fact when the blockade occurs. If a general war between the US against Britain, Germany and maybe Italy, then it is most certain that Japan might also enter this conflict, but taking an opportunity to either support Philippine independence (only to turn them into their puppet state a la Manchukuo), or outright annex the country. Alternatively, they could go the Korea route with the Philippines with establishing them as their protectorate before launching their shenanigans that would lead to a Japanese annexation of the Philippines. Conversely, it might be too busy paying attention to their new acquisition down south to care about Korea and Russia instead becomes Korea's informal overlord. Or another alternative scenario would be that Russia and Japan would come to terms with Manchuria coming under Russian influence while Korea comes under Japanese influence.

Another angle to this would have been to keep President MacKinley alive by avoiding the assassination attempt, or have William Jennings Bryan win the 1900 US Presidential election instead. Having Bryan as President might certainly butterfly the annexations of the Philippines and Hawaii, instead supporting their governments (though in reality they might turn them into puppet states). Then have the American Anti-Imperialist League become infiltrated by leftists to the point where they would use said league to push for a revolutionary version of enforcing the Monroe Doctrine.

  TheRomanSlayer,

  Good point about the Philippines and Japan.  That would be likely to be another focus if the US triggered a wider war with the three European powers over Venezuela.  Japan was a lot more liberal at the time albeit still looking to establish its own empire for resource control reasons as well probably as prestige.  Likely to see Japan liberate the Philippines, in the early stages probably having a somewhat lighter rein over a Filipino protectorate than the US did but with some military bases in the islands.

  I can't see Japan giving up Korea as its too close to Japan, both culturally in some ways and more important geographically.  Think there was a de-facto agreement on spheres of influence with Russia dominant in Manchuria and Japan in Korea until Japan saw the completion of the Trans-Siberian Railway as too much of a threat to its interests in Korea.  If Japan is involved in a war with the US then that could butterfly the war with Russia until its too late because the railway is completed.  Or Japan could do like it did in WWI, i.e. grab low hanging fruit such as the Philippines and possibly Wake and Guam - although in this scenario Germany or Britain might get to those two 1st, then still fight Russia, which could complicate matters.  Or a 3rd option is that the Franco-Russian alliance might try something if too many German forces are away in N America.  [Although this is unlikely as it also means war with Britain which would be especially bad for France].  However tension in the Manchuria/Korea region could result in a wider war or two independent ones with Russia v Japan as a separate conflict, which might be drawn together at a later stage.  As such you could see an earlier WWI and it would probably get that name - or at least a World War.

  Steve

[stevep]

Nov 24, 2020 6:28:28 GMT gillan1220 said:

Nov 24, 2020 5:13:49 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

The Venezuela Crisis of 1902-03 might be a good starting point for a USA to end up being tangled into a conflict with the European powers. However, the US might be a bit exhausted from the recent Philippine-American War and would not want to risk another conflict where they would certainly be defeated. However, the US might also justify the Monroe Doctrine as fact when the blockade occurs. If a general war between the US against Britain, Germany and maybe Italy, then it is most certain that Japan might also enter this conflict, but taking an opportunity to either support Philippine independence (only to turn them into their puppet state a la Manchukuo), or outright annex the country. Alternatively, they could go the Korea route with the Philippines with establishing them as their protectorate before launching their shenanigans that would lead to a Japanese annexation of the Philippines. Conversely, it might be too busy paying attention to their new acquisition down south to care about Korea and Russia instead becomes Korea's informal overlord. Or another alternative scenario would be that Russia and Japan would come to terms with Manchuria coming under Russian influence while Korea comes under Japanese influence.

Another angle to this would have been to keep President MacKinley alive by avoiding the assassination attempt, or have William Jennings Bryan win the 1900 US Presidential election instead. Having Bryan as President might certainly butterfly the annexations of the Philippines and Hawaii, instead supporting their governments (though in reality they might turn them into puppet states). Then have the American Anti-Imperialist League become infiltrated by leftists to the point where they would use said league to push for a revolutionary version of enforcing the Monroe Doctrine.

Actually, the First Philippine Republic (1898-1901) was friendly towards Japan since the Japanese had a long-term goal to drive the Europeans out of Asia. I could not see Japan annexing the entire Philippines at this period. She wasn't the strong power she would be in two generations. Since Aguinaldo saw the Japanese as allies, it would most likely be a satellite state or for the lack of better words, a pro-Japanese independent republic. The following article says the following regarding Filipino-Japanese relations:

With the outbreak ofthe Philippine-American War in 1898, liaison between the Japanese shishi and the Filipino continued. Mariano Ponce (with some help from Sun Yat Sen) was able to procure funds and purchased Japanese weapons and a ship to transport the weapons to the Philippines. The arms were ostensi- bly sold to a Japanese company and then consigned to a German merchant as thefinal recipient. The ship itself was bought through Sun Y at Sen. The ship, the Nunobiki Mam, was an aged wooden vessel. It left Kobe for Nagasaki where it loaded 10,000 Murata rifles, six million rounds of ammunition, a few pieces of artillery and miscellaneous military equipment, and then proceeded to the Philippines. There were a number of ex-Japanese army officers on board who had resigned from the Japanese army so they could help Aguinaldo in a private capacity rather than follow Japanese official policy. However, almost like comical twist to the episode, the ship encountered a typhoon and sank off Shanghai. Thus, ended the only major-scale Japanese involvement in the Revolution.

Perhaps we can have a POD where the Filipino-American War becomes America's earlier Vietnam or Afghanistan-style of conflict. Remember in our timeline, the U.S. took 15 years to pacify the Moro Rebellion (1898-1913) in the south of the Philippines (see video below). This rebellion ended on June 15, 1913, almost just a year before World War I.

How Did these Warriors Continue to Fight when Shot?



MORO Rebellion | Philippine American War



The only way this would have worked is if Japan or Imperial Germany sent more arms and aid to the Filipino rebels. By having the Filipino-American War extend into the 1910s and thus becoming a front of WWI (we could see American clashes over this area with Germany in the Pacific), the Americans back home would be overextended and war-weary. With the rise of communism in Russia, we could see that disenfranchised Americans slowly lean to socialist ideas.

  gillan1220,

  Would agree with your conclusions about the Japanese position and if the proposed war broke out over Venezuela then Japan might well be tempted by the collapse of US naval power to directly aid the Philippines.  Interesting POD on its own if the Nunobiki Mam had reached its destination and managed to supply the arms to the independence movement.  That would not only boost the resistance but since the US would almost certainly find out about the origins of the arms and also the presence of 'retired' Japanese army officers aiding the rebels its going to sour Japan-US relations even more.

  Japan might also use its alliance with Britain as an excuse for entering such a conflict.  Its not bound by the treaty to do so as it only applies if Britain or Japan was at war with two other great powers but its a possible further reason why Japan might step in.

  The consequences of a Japanese protectorate over the Philippines and possibly Japan staying somewhat more liberal and close to Sun and the early KMT could give a lot of butterflies on its own.

  In terms of the aim of the thread a heavy defeat for the US could prompt a right wing militaristic reaction, determined to gain revenge, especially if territory is lost.  The risks of another bloody war and the high taxes and military demands from such a policy could in turn prompt a stronger left wing reaction to it.  There was already a strong opposition to the corruption and increasing inequality of the gilded age and especially if Roosevelt's OTL reforms are prevented here that could be emphasised further.

  Steve

[TheRomanSlayer]

I would say that a minor PoD of the Nunobiki Maru arriving in the Philippines would do the trick, if they opted for a different route that avoided the storms that occurred between Taipei and Shanghai. Combined with a worse Venezuelan Crisis that might follow plus a potential hostile US-Japanese relations might result in ironically enough, the US getting into war with the group that includes the OTL Axis powers of Germany, Italy and Japan (though Britain might also join in as well, and Japan later joins, honoring the Anglo-Japanese alliance).

I could also see Japan preventing the American annexation of Hawaii if it was possible, though depending on how Japan is successful with its contribution into the Philippine Revolution, we might also see Hawaii remaining independent. The results of Japan staying liberal, along with a successful First Philippine Republic might also encourage Chinese revolutionaries in making a better plan of overthrowing the Qing, though I could also see the Pan-Asian movement getting a lot stronger. However, the question of Korea would be a thorny issue, as both China and Japan would actually compete over it.

Going back to the whole left wing America, 1899 is still a good PoD to ensure of William Jennings Bryan winning the presidency and have the AAIL become more influential. Coupled with more left wing infiltration of the movement, and you'd also see them preaching for enforcing the Monroe Doctrine with such revolutionary zeal. It might also help if in the event of a war between the US and the quartet of Britain-Germany-Italy-Japan, the US might lose some territories (loss of territories also contributed a bit to the OTL Bolshevik Revolution). However, I suspect that Italy might only send volunteers and it will be both Britain and Germany doing the main task of fighting US troops.

If Germany also aided the Filipino rebels, they might also butt heads with Japan in terms of who gets to control the Philippines. Unlike Japan, the First Philippine Republic might be very paranoid of the Germans taking over, and in fact they nearly did in 1898.

[gillan1220]

Nov 24, 2020 14:08:51 GMT stevep said:

Nov 24, 2020 6:28:28 GMT gillan1220 said:

Actually, the First Philippine Republic (1898-1901) was friendly towards Japan since the Japanese had a long-term goal to drive the Europeans out of Asia. I could not see Japan annexing the entire Philippines at this period. She wasn't the strong power she would be in two generations. Since Aguinaldo saw the Japanese as allies, it would most likely be a satellite state or for the lack of better words, a pro-Japanese independent republic. The following article says the following regarding Filipino-Japanese relations:

Perhaps we can have a POD where the Filipino-American War becomes America's earlier Vietnam or Afghanistan-style of conflict. Remember in our timeline, the U.S. took 15 years to pacify the Moro Rebellion (1898-1913) in the south of the Philippines (see video below). This rebellion ended on June 15, 1913, almost just a year before World War I.

How Did these Warriors Continue to Fight when Shot?



MORO Rebellion | Philippine American War



The only way this would have worked is if Japan or Imperial Germany sent more arms and aid to the Filipino rebels. By having the Filipino-American War extend into the 1910s and thus becoming a front of WWI (we could see American clashes over this area with Germany in the Pacific), the Americans back home would be overextended and war-weary. With the rise of communism in Russia, we could see that disenfranchised Americans slowly lean to socialist ideas.

  gillan1220 ,

  Would agree with your conclusions about the Japanese position and if the proposed war broke out over Venezuela then Japan might well be tempted by the collapse of US naval power to directly aid the Philippines.  Interesting POD on its own if the Nunobiki Mam had reached its destination and managed to supply the arms to the independence movement.  That would not only boost the resistance but since the US would almost certainly find out about the origins of the arms and also the presence of 'retired' Japanese army officers aiding the rebels its going to sour Japan-US relations even more.

  Japan might also use its alliance with Britain as an excuse for entering such a conflict.  Its not bound by the treaty to do so as it only applies if Britain or Japan was at war with two other great powers but its a possible further reason why Japan might step in.

  The consequences of a Japanese protectorate over the Philippines and possibly Japan staying somewhat more liberal and close to Sun and the early KMT could give a lot of butterflies on its own.

  In terms of the aim of the thread a heavy defeat for the US could prompt a right wing militaristic reaction, determined to gain revenge, especially if territory is lost.  The risks of another bloody war and the high taxes and military demands from such a policy could in turn prompt a stronger left wing reaction to it.  There was already a strong opposition to the corruption and increasing inequality of the gilded age and especially if Roosevelt's OTL reforms are prevented here that could be emphasised further.

  Steve

TheRomanSlayer  stevep

Realistically speaking, should those 10,000 rifles have reached the Philippines, it won't change much of the outcome of the Philippine-American War. Those rifles would give the defenders the advantage but once ammo runs out and the Japanese halt their support because of the USN, they are nothing short of clubs or spears. The USN could sink any cargo ship headed to the Philippines. One way the war could have dragged on for the U.S. is that if the Filipinos were united but the First Philippine Republic in her young years had full of infighting officials and military officers.

Yes, the Germans and U.S. were close to exchanging naval gunfire in Manila Bay in 1898 when the Imperial German Navy harassed USN ships. This caused a headache to Adm. Dewey. Of course the war never happened since it would most likely start a German-American War in the middle of the Spanish-American War. Alternatively, it could have started an earlier WWI.

Some Filipinos like Jose Rizal (the national hero who was executed on December 30, 1896) preferred German aid rather than American aid. Rizal was suspicious of the Americans since he was aware of their expansion westwards in the continental North America as well as expeditions into the Caribbean and Latin America and he knew it was just a matter of time till she becomes the next imperialist. Of course, the Filipinos would be divided whether to accept German assistance or not.

[TheRomanSlayer]

I agree that the Murata rifles won't make a lot of difference, but a bigger bodycount in the Philippine insurrection against American rule might also make the US a bit more sour on future costly foreign adventures that might not be beneficial in the long run. Yes, there was major infighting within the Philippine ranks during the Philippine-American War, most notably the murder of Antonio Luna at the hands of Emilio Aguinaldo's men, as well as the last stand of Gregorio del Pilar at the Battle of Tirad Pass.

Going back to the topic at hand, besides Eugene Debs, who is the most likely candidate to become the first overtly left wing politician that can take over the US? I can imagine US foreign policy with a radically left-wing American government that might (as I may have said this once) enforce the Monroe Doctrine with such fanaticism. I can also see a communist America being a close ally of President Calles's Mexican state (there are also plenty of time between either the Philippine-American War plus the Venezuelan Crisis of 1902-03 and the Mexican Revolution of 1910). Besides the US, Mexico might be a good candidate for the first American satellite in this revolutionary period.

I would suspect that a communist America might be a bit more intrusive in its dealings with its Latin American neighbors than its OTL counterpart, if only because the communist ideology would be a convenient excuse to meddle in their affairs. Similar to OTL Soviet Union and its dealings with Eastern Europe.

[gillan1220]

Nov 26, 2020 5:16:04 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

I agree that the Murata rifles won't make a lot of difference, but a bigger bodycount in the Philippine insurrection against American rule might also make the US a bit more sour on future costly foreign adventures that might not be beneficial in the long run. Yes, there was major infighting within the Philippine ranks during the Philippine-American War, most notably the murder of Antonio Luna at the hands of Emilio Aguinaldo's men, as well as the last stand of Gregorio del Pilar at the Battle of Tirad Pass.

Going back to the topic at hand, besides Eugene Debs, who is the most likely candidate to become the first overtly left wing politician that can take over the US? I can imagine US foreign policy with a radically left-wing American government that might (as I may have said this once) enforce the Monroe Doctrine with such fanaticism. I can also see a communist America being a close ally of President Calles's Mexican state (there are also plenty of time between either the Philippine-American War plus the Venezuelan Crisis of 1902-03 and the Mexican Revolution of 1910). Besides the US, Mexico might be a good candidate for the first American satellite in this revolutionary period.

I would suspect that a communist America might be a bit more intrusive in its dealings with its Latin American neighbors than its OTL counterpart, if only because the communist ideology would be a convenient excuse to meddle in their affairs. Similar to OTL Soviet Union and its dealings with Eastern Europe.

There's also a big chance this communist America would not enter a partnership or alliance with the USSR that is depending what the butterflies would incur here. Since Trotsky planned for the outrageous "world revolution", perhaps he would develop better diplomatic relations with the Red America. However, if Stalin comes to power in this timeline, Stalin may see American communism as a product of revisionism similar to how the Sino-Soviet split occurred.

[stevep]

Nov 26, 2020 5:16:04 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

I agree that the Murata rifles won't make a lot of difference, but a bigger bodycount in the Philippine insurrection against American rule might also make the US a bit more sour on future costly foreign adventures that might not be beneficial in the long run. Yes, there was major infighting within the Philippine ranks during the Philippine-American War, most notably the murder of Antonio Luna at the hands of Emilio Aguinaldo's men, as well as the last stand of Gregorio del Pilar at the Battle of Tirad Pass.

Going back to the topic at hand, besides Eugene Debs, who is the most likely candidate to become the first overtly left wing politician that can take over the US? I can imagine US foreign policy with a radically left-wing American government that might (as I may have said this once) enforce the Monroe Doctrine with such fanaticism. I can also see a communist America being a close ally of President Calles's Mexican state (there are also plenty of time between either the Philippine-American War plus the Venezuelan Crisis of 1902-03 and the Mexican Revolution of 1910). Besides the US, Mexico might be a good candidate for the first American satellite in this revolutionary period.

I would suspect that a communist America might be a bit more intrusive in its dealings with its Latin American neighbors than its OTL counterpart, if only because the communist ideology would be a convenient excuse to meddle in their affairs. Similar to OTL Soviet Union and its dealings with Eastern Europe.

  TheRomanSlayer,

  I think how such a communist state behaved might depend on how it came into existence and who its leaders were.  To reference the two extremes from OTL Stalin's USSR was a lot more cautious than Trotsky's  or probably even a post-civil war Lenin's would have been.  I could see a confident enough USSA [Union of Soviet States of America] seeking to interfere in Latin America even more both to expand its influence and also to inspire/support revolution there under a leader somewhat like Trotsky or Lenin with a strong anti-landlord/anti-aristocratic element.  Plus this would be a way of interfering with the commerce of their capitalist rivals.

  If someone like Debs came to power I suspect the primary way that would lead to a more extreme communist state would be if there was a strong right wing reaction, possibly including blocking or even removing Debs in some possibly unconstitutional way.  That in term brings a more violent response.  After all if socialist are able to gain power by election and get measures that improve the position of ordinary people that's likely to ease social tensions and boost support for democratic socialism rather than increase support for more extreme groups. 

  Steve

[TheRomanSlayer]

It might call itself the Union of American Socialist Republics, though that wouldn't be the point.

The right-wing reaction to a possible left-wing government in the US might be a lot worse and stronger than the failed Bonus March, though with bloodshed involved. Or it might be Patton who might try his own March on Washington before he gets shot and a civil war breaks out that results in a massive bloodbath against the American right. I can also see Canada becoming an irresistible target for the communist Manifest Destiny, and the communist American government might also aim at conquering all of Canada, or at the very least, the western regions, with bits of Ontario, all of Quebec and the Maritimes becoming its own republic.

I would assume that a communist America might also raise a lot of fear in Europe as left-wing movements there might be violently crushed by European nations, though I can see an earlier left-wing Kuomintang take over China along the lines of what a Wang Jingwei regime would look like.

[stevep]

Nov 27, 2020 6:35:16 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

It might call itself the Union of American Socialist Republics, though that wouldn't be the point.

The right-wing reaction to a possible left-wing government in the US might be a lot worse and stronger than the failed Bonus March, though with bloodshed involved. Or it might be Patton who might try his own March on Washington before he gets shot and a civil war breaks out that results in a massive bloodbath against the American right. I can also see Canada becoming an irresistible target for the communist Manifest Destiny, and the communist American government might also aim at conquering all of Canada, or at the very least, the western regions, with bits of Ontario, all of Quebec and the Maritimes becoming its own republic.

I would assume that a communist America might also raise a lot of fear in Europe as left-wing movements there might be violently crushed by European nations, though I can see an earlier left-wing Kuomintang take over China along the lines of what a Wang Jingwei regime would look like.

  I was just using that name to give a tag for the new state but what I meant was that how expansionist or not it is likely to depend on the circumstances of how it comes to power and who ends up winning the power struggle that will almost certainly result for control of the new state.  If as with Russia it requires a prolonged and destructive civil war for communism to gain power, which seems likely then it could have a Stalin like figure who decides it needs a period of consolidation and reconstruction, along with the destruction of remaining 'reactionary' elements inside the state before it considered any serious expansion.

  A communist state in the US would almost certainly worry a lot of people in Europe, although a lot again would depend on the details.  If there has still been a WWI or some other way Russia is threatened by a communist regime then its more likely that the European powers and probably even more so Japan will seek to suppress it so there is only one communist threat.  There might well be intervention in the US revolution, which could be a lot easier than with Russia depending on the circumstances.  Also with multiple power centres in the US, although at this date the NE and Great Lakes regions are dominant, its possible that there could be break-away regions that retain independence from any USSA,  equivalents of say Finland and the Baltic states.  Although the difference here would be that those break-aways would be more like China/Taiwan.

  Steve

[gillan1220]

One thing is for sure it will cause a Second American Civil War and would see Britain and France to intervene. For Britain because many of her colonies such as Canada and Bermuda are under threat.

[stevep]

Nov 27, 2020 13:56:40 GMT gillan1220 said:

One thing is for sure it will cause a Second American Civil War and would see Britain and France to intervene. For Britain because many of her colonies such as Canada and Bermuda are under threat.

  A lot would depend on the circumstances and if you had something like the OTL WWI going on roughly simultaneously  or slightly before neither power might have the will and resources to intervene.  However any sort of extreme regime, whether left or right is likely to cause great concern in both London and Ottawa.  Plus Canada is likely to see a lot of immigration as people flee the chaos to their south, whether for political or economic reasons.  Which is likely to cause stress between it and its new southern neighbour.  OTL a number of leading 'White' generals and political figures seem to have died from Bolshevik assassins so something like that could be an issue here.

  It also depends on the situation inside Britain especially, as that's the power best able to intervene in N America.  If there's a liberal government and the USCW2 starts off with some sort of right wing military coup against a democratically elected socialist government under someone like Debs then initially a lot of people might favour the rebels - as elements did initially in the French Revolution - before it becomes dominated by more extreme elements.

[gillan1220]

Nov 27, 2020 15:50:08 GMT stevep said:

Nov 27, 2020 13:56:40 GMT gillan1220 said:

One thing is for sure it will cause a Second American Civil War and would see Britain and France to intervene. For Britain because many of her colonies such as Canada and Bermuda are under threat.

  A lot would depend on the circumstances and if you had something like the OTL WWI going on roughly simultaneously  or slightly before neither power might have the will and resources to intervene.  However any sort of extreme regime, whether left or right is likely to cause great concern in both London and Ottawa.  Plus Canada is likely to see a lot of immigration as people flee the chaos to their south, whether for political or economic reasons.  Which is likely to cause stress between it and its new southern neighbour.  OTL a number of leading 'White' generals and political figures seem to have died from Bolshevik assassins so something like that could be an issue here.

  It also depends on the situation inside Britain especially, as that's the power best able to intervene in N America.  If there's a liberal government and the USCW2 starts off with some sort of right wing military coup against a democratically elected socialist government under someone like Debs then initially a lot of people might favour the rebels - as elements did initially in the French Revolution - before it becomes dominated by more extreme elements.

Britain at this period has the largest and strongest navy. It would deploy it to protect its interests in the Western Hemisphere.