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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Nov 17, 2020 5:40:45 GMT
Given a various set of TLs in most alternate history sites regarding Communist America (plus a vignette TL about what a post-communist USA is like) and the novel Back in the USSA, what is the most realistic and unexplored scenarios that results in the US becoming a communist state? Would this Communist America be different from the OTL communist states that we have today? How would they come to power and how would they behave?
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Nov 17, 2020 11:11:49 GMT
By the definition of "realistic", I could not find one at scenario that plays by the rules of realism. The closest one I saw is called Red, White, and Red one where Eugene Debs wins 1912 and slowly rewrites the U.S. Constitution, changing it to the People's Republic of America and aligning it with Lenin's USSR. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 17, 2020 13:01:05 GMT
What do you mean by unexplored? I think there have been looks at a right wing dictatorship replacing Roosevelt in the early 1930's which if somehow it succeeded - or for some other reason Roosevelt and the New Deal never occurred could mean that many people become desperate enough to look for a radical solution to prolonged deep poverty in a country dominated by large business interests.
The other issue is if the gilded age lasted longer without any real reform. Again its a Roosevelt [Teddy in this case] that is the main figure here OTL but its possible that things might have fallen apart before he came to power. There were a lot of poor migrants in the late 19thC who in many cases suffered persecution or discrimination as well as very bad social conditions. Coupled with a lot of socialists and other reformers having established themselves earlier after the 1848 revolutions generally failed in Europe and that many of those migrants would probably have had some military experience having undergone conscription in their homeland get the right circumstances wit enough desperate people and you might see a socialist revolution that after bitter fighting goes hard left. There would be a lot more problems for such a regime in the US than in OTL Russia but not impossible. Of course without a long world war exhausting the other powers you might see some foreign intervention, especially probably by Britain, with a conservative government and a lot of investments in the US. However for much of the 1880s' and 1890s there might not be an appetite for such an intervention in Britain and a change of government could mean such as intervention could be short lived.
Those are the two possibilities that come to mind for me.
Steve
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Post by american2006 on Nov 17, 2020 20:23:17 GMT
Simple. Nukes are never developed, the USSR stays allied with the Axis, the US is defeated and becomes Communist. Might not have the same borders as our timeline.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Nov 18, 2020 4:09:01 GMT
First of all, having the USSR in the Axis Alliance would require Britain and France to bomb the Baku oilfields which they thought of doing. Had they done so, they would technically be at war with the USSR. The main conundrum of this would be Hitler since he is now forced to have the communist regime as his "formal" ally.
The ones that were explored mainly from what I spoke was Eugene Debs being the American Lenin and Al Capone being the American Stalin, though this is Back in the USSA the novel that I was referring to. Although on the other hand, there could also be a path to a communist USA with an American Civil War PoD of a possible Confederate victory, followed by the instability within the US as Marxist influence permeates the country. Or alternatively, you can also have a different Civil War with a Northern Secession that is left wing in nature.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 18, 2020 13:01:30 GMT
Simple. Nukes are never developed, the USSR stays allied with the Axis, the US is defeated and becomes Communist. Might not have the same borders as our timeline.
Can't see the US actually entering the war in that scenario and definitely not occupied. Even if the Red Army is every bit as incompetent as in the Winter War sheer weight of numbers would threaten the allied position in the ME and probably force a British defeat and ceasefire then Hitler at some point turning on the Soviets, possibly even with some right wing regime in Britain supporting him to protect/regain imperial lands. The US might end up in a war with Japan but even if either a Germany victorious over the Soviets, or the [even less likely] the Nazi-Soviet alliance continuing it simply doesn't have the resources to threaten the US and North America.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 18, 2020 13:05:11 GMT
First of all, having the USSR in the Axis Alliance would require Britain and France to bomb the Baku oilfields which they thought of doing. Had they done so, they would technically be at war with the USSR. The main conundrum of this would be Hitler since he is now forced to have the communist regime as his "formal" ally. The ones that were explored mainly from what I spoke was Eugene Debs being the American Lenin and Al Capone being the American Stalin, though this is Back in the USSA the novel that I was referring to. Although on the other hand, there could also be a path to a communist USA with an American Civil War PoD of a possible Confederate victory, followed by the instability within the US as Marxist influence permeates the country. Or alternatively, you can also have a different Civil War with a Northern Secession that is left wing in nature.
An earlier revolution, say in the late 19thC might be possible after a disastrous defeat in the civil war. Possibly the best option might be the Trent Incident leads to war with Britain as well but for various reasons the north isn't forced to concede in the 1st year or so. In which case the war could be long and bitter with a lot of damage and possibly territorial losses. Also a greater role for the military in an 'endangered' rump union. Political instability and a central government that is beholden to either/both the military and big business even more than OTL and sooner or later the wheels come off totally. I suspect its not very likely but might occur.
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Post by american2006 on Nov 18, 2020 13:06:14 GMT
Simple. Nukes are never developed, the USSR stays allied with the Axis, the US is defeated and becomes Communist. Might not have the same borders as our timeline.
Can't see the US actually entering the war in that scenario and definitely not occupied. Even if the Red Army is every bit as incompetent as in the Winter War sheer weight of numbers would threaten the allied position in the ME and probably force a British defeat and ceasefire then Hitler at some point turning on the Soviets, possibly even with some right wing regime in Britain supporting him to protect/regain imperial lands. The US might end up in a war with Japan but even if either a Germany victorious over the Soviets, or the [even less likely] the Nazi-Soviet alliance continuing it simply doesn't have the resources to threaten the US and North America.
Whose says the US would willingly enter the war? Belgium, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, Poland, China, and others wanted to stay out. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 18, 2020 13:11:23 GMT
Can't see the US actually entering the war in that scenario and definitely not occupied. Even if the Red Army is every bit as incompetent as in the Winter War sheer weight of numbers would threaten the allied position in the ME and probably force a British defeat and ceasefire then Hitler at some point turning on the Soviets, possibly even with some right wing regime in Britain supporting him to protect/regain imperial lands. The US might end up in a war with Japan but even if either a Germany victorious over the Soviets, or the [even less likely] the Nazi-Soviet alliance continuing it simply doesn't have the resources to threaten the US and North America.
Whose says the US would willingly enter the war? Belgium, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, Poland, China, and others wanted to stay out.
You did. Your original post was:
Very few of the powers dragged into WWII wanted war. Only really Japan, Germany and Mussolini's clique in charge of Italy.
PS Actually to be clear no one said the US would willingly enter the war so your question is odd. You said it would be defeated and occupied so I responded to that.
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Post by american2006 on Nov 18, 2020 13:23:08 GMT
Whose says the US would willingly enter the war? Belgium, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, Poland, China, and others wanted to stay out.
You did. Your original post was:
Very few of the powers dragged into WWII wanted war. Only really Japan, Germany and Mussolini's clique in charge of Italy.
PS Actually to be clear no one said the US would willingly enter the war so your question is odd. You said it would be defeated and occupied so I responded to that.
What I meant by this is that the US could be attacked, not like a Pearl Harbpr attack, but a full invasion. Yes no one really ever wants war except those who start it. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 18, 2020 16:10:11 GMT
You did. Your original post was:
Very few of the powers dragged into WWII wanted war. Only really Japan, Germany and Mussolini's clique in charge of Italy.
PS Actually to be clear no one said the US would willingly enter the war so your question is odd. You said it would be defeated and occupied so I responded to that.
What I meant by this is that the US could be attacked, not like a Pearl Harbpr attack, but a full invasion. Yes no one really ever wants war except those who start it.
OK understand now. Defeated in attempt to interfer outside N America then a communist revolution internally. Must admit I think the latter is unlikely. More likely it stays in isolationism other than economic warfare attempts to maintain influence and oppose that of the assorted other powers.
Nuclear weapons are going to turn up sooner or later, probably not much later than OTL and its almost certain that the US will get them 1st.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Nov 22, 2020 10:57:22 GMT
You did. Your original post was:
Very few of the powers dragged into WWII wanted war. Only really Japan, Germany and Mussolini's clique in charge of Italy.
PS Actually to be clear no one said the US would willingly enter the war so your question is odd. You said it would be defeated and occupied so I responded to that.
What I meant by this is that the US could be attacked, not like a Pearl Harbpr attack, but a full invasion. Yes no one really ever wants war except those who start it. How possible is a full invasion of the continental US? |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 22, 2020 15:46:48 GMT
What I meant by this is that the US could be attacked, not like a Pearl Harbpr attack, but a full invasion. Yes no one really ever wants war except those who start it. How possible is a full invasion of the continental US?
From about 1900 to possibly 1960 - after which invasion of a nuclear devastated US while unlikely is theoretically possible - I would say extremely unlikely. There is an outside chance that Britain, possibly allied with other powers could do it especially with say a different WWI but its likely to be very bloody for both sides.
Before 1900 there are nations other than Britain that might have a chance but their options would be restricted by rivalries in Europe as well as the substantial task of transferring and maintaining at the least a few hundred thousand men in the continental US. France before 1870 or Germany after say 1880 as the empire really industrialises would be possible options but they would need a serious motive for such a massive operation and even when Germany was still allied with both Russia and Austria could it risk sending a substantial proportion of its forces to N America with an hostile France and an uncertain Britain on its doorstep. Especially since both those powers had much larger navies than Germany at this time and a geographical advantage so they could very likely isolate the German forces in N America, leading to their eventual defeat.
One possible other option might be the Venezuelan_crisis_of_1902-03, in which following a coup in the country the new junta defaulted on its debts and prompted Britain, Germany and Italy to blockade the country for several months. Its possible that a more aggressive US claiming that this breached the Monroe Doctrine could have stumbled into a war with the alliance and if it had attacked Canada prompted a more general war. Here the alliance would have big advantages of vastly superior army [Germany] and navy [Britain] plus control of nitrate supplies. However the alliance would have to consider the stances of France and Russia, even if the US action was widely seen as a breach of international diplomacy.
Steve
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on Nov 24, 2020 4:25:37 GMT
Cody of The Alternate History Hub made a scenario of this. I'll let you decide if it is realistic or not.
What if the Soviets Won the Cold War? (Part 1)
What if the Soviets Won the Cold War? (Part 2)
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Nov 24, 2020 5:13:49 GMT
How possible is a full invasion of the continental US?
From about 1900 to possibly 1960 - after which invasion of a nuclear devastated US while unlikely is theoretically possible - I would say extremely unlikely. There is an outside chance that Britain, possibly allied with other powers could do it especially with say a different WWI but its likely to be very bloody for both sides.
Before 1900 there are nations other than Britain that might have a chance but their options would be restricted by rivalries in Europe as well as the substantial task of transferring and maintaining at the least a few hundred thousand men in the continental US. France before 1870 or Germany after say 1880 as the empire really industrialises would be possible options but they would need a serious motive for such a massive operation and even when Germany was still allied with both Russia and Austria could it risk sending a substantial proportion of its forces to N America with an hostile France and an uncertain Britain on its doorstep. Especially since both those powers had much larger navies than Germany at this time and a geographical advantage so they could very likely isolate the German forces in N America, leading to their eventual defeat.
One possible other option might be the Venezuelan_crisis_of_1902-03, in which following a coup in the country the new junta defaulted on its debts and prompted Britain, Germany and Italy to blockade the country for several months. Its possible that a more aggressive US claiming that this breached the Monroe Doctrine could have stumbled into a war with the alliance and if it had attacked Canada prompted a more general war. Here the alliance would have big advantages of vastly superior army [Germany] and navy [Britain] plus control of nitrate supplies. However the alliance would have to consider the stances of France and Russia, even if the US action was widely seen as a breach of international diplomacy.
Steve
The Venezuela Crisis of 1902-03 might be a good starting point for a USA to end up being tangled into a conflict with the European powers. However, the US might be a bit exhausted from the recent Philippine-American War and would not want to risk another conflict where they would certainly be defeated. However, the US might also justify the Monroe Doctrine as fact when the blockade occurs. If a general war between the US against Britain, Germany and maybe Italy, then it is most certain that Japan might also enter this conflict, but taking an opportunity to either support Philippine independence (only to turn them into their puppet state a la Manchukuo), or outright annex the country. Alternatively, they could go the Korea route with the Philippines with establishing them as their protectorate before launching their shenanigans that would lead to a Japanese annexation of the Philippines. Conversely, it might be too busy paying attention to their new acquisition down south to care about Korea and Russia instead becomes Korea's informal overlord. Or another alternative scenario would be that Russia and Japan would come to terms with Manchuria coming under Russian influence while Korea comes under Japanese influence. Another angle to this would have been to keep President MacKinley alive by avoiding the assassination attempt, or have William Jennings Bryan win the 1900 US Presidential election instead. Having Bryan as President might certainly butterfly the annexations of the Philippines and Hawaii, instead supporting their governments (though in reality they might turn them into puppet states). Then have the American Anti-Imperialist League become infiltrated by leftists to the point where they would use said league to push for a revolutionary version of enforcing the Monroe Doctrine. |
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