Realistic and Unusual Scenario for a Communist USA?

[stevep]

Nov 27, 2020 15:57:53 GMT gillan1220 said:

Nov 27, 2020 15:50:08 GMT stevep said:

  A lot would depend on the circumstances and if you had something like the OTL WWI going on roughly simultaneously  or slightly before neither power might have the will and resources to intervene.  However any sort of extreme regime, whether left or right is likely to cause great concern in both London and Ottawa.  Plus Canada is likely to see a lot of immigration as people flee the chaos to their south, whether for political or economic reasons.  Which is likely to cause stress between it and its new southern neighbour.  OTL a number of leading 'White' generals and political figures seem to have died from Bolshevik assassins so something like that could be an issue here.

  It also depends on the situation inside Britain especially, as that's the power best able to intervene in N America.  If there's a liberal government and the USCW2 starts off with some sort of right wing military coup against a democratically elected socialist government under someone like Debs then initially a lot of people might favour the rebels - as elements did initially in the French Revolution - before it becomes dominated by more extreme elements.

Britain at this period has the largest and strongest navy. It would deploy it to protect its interests in the Western Hemisphere.

  Very likely there would be some action, especially since the USN is likely to suffer very badly during any civil war.  However a lot would depend on how big a threat to British or Canadian interests a communist US appears - likely to be high - and what else was happening elsewhere.  If it occurred during or shortly after a major conflict elsewhere Canada could be rather in the position of Malaya in Dec 41.  Hopefully that wouldn't be the case but its a possibility that has to be considered.

[TheRomanSlayer]

At this point the USN hasn't become the juggernaut it eventually became in 1945, so it might be easy for the Royal Navy to actually win a sortie against the USN. Add the German Navy as well, and it is a foregone conclusion. I could also see New England being turned into an Anglo-Canadian protectorate, or some alternate territorial loss that the USA might experience should they lose the war against the Britain-Germany-Italy-Japan alliance.

I could also see Britain and Germany coming to a formal alliance over this, which would be a bad case scenario for France and Russia. Although I'm not sure what Austria-Hungary might be doing at this point, but if the Austro-Hungarians join the Anglo-German alliance, that's another trouble for the Entente, plus if the Ottomans also join too.

[stevep]

Nov 28, 2020 6:41:00 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

At this point the USN hasn't become the juggernaut it eventually became in 1945, so it might be easy for the Royal Navy to actually win a sortie against the USN. Add the German Navy as well, and it is a foregone conclusion. I could also see New England being turned into an Anglo-Canadian protectorate, or some alternate territorial loss that the USA might experience should they lose the war against the Britain-Germany-Italy-Japan alliance.

I could also see Britain and Germany coming to a formal alliance over this, which would be a bad case scenario for France and Russia. Although I'm not sure what Austria-Hungary might be doing at this point, but if the Austro-Hungarians join the Anglo-German alliance, that's another trouble for the Entente, plus if the Ottomans also join too.

  If we're talking about a conflict relating from the Venezuelan crisis then its a forgone conclusion as the USN was still very small then.  If talking about a post civil war communist US then a lot would depend on the situation in Europe but would also expect a British victory because a prolonged internal conflict is very likely to really screw over the USN and its supporting infrastructure.  Not to mention in this scenario you could see a fair number of former USN units, manned by refugees fleeing the revolution fighting alongside the RN against any Red Navy.

  If either situation prompted an Anglo-German alliance before WWI then [provided it doesn't prompt WWI as part of a wider conflict] the Franco-Russian alliance is basically isolated and not in a position to risk war.  The Ottomans would definitely be on the anti-Russian side in any such conflict, whether the latter was Romanov or communist itself.  If Germany sought to take advantage of such an alliance - after the US was defeated - by an aggressive war against France and/or Russia it would be more complex however as Britain would see that as a serious threat to the balance of power so what its reaction would be is very unclear.

  Steve

[TheRomanSlayer]

I would think that a more aggressive war provoked by Germany against France might be a bit more problematic to Britain than a war between Germany and Russia. Britain would want to see Russia weakened as much as Germany wants to knock the Russian bear down, so it is only if France was attacked that Britain would raise its objections. Although you might also see a large and influential anti-communist American diaspora emerging in either Europe, Asia and Australia. Come to think of it, the anti-communist Americans might be eager to view Australia as an attractive destination due to a similarity in culture, as well as its geographic distance from the nightmare that their homeland is becoming. Assuming that Canada wouldn't be a good option due to its close proximity to the US. Although there is also a danger of sponsoring a pro-leftist coup in Canada as well.

[stevep]

Nov 28, 2020 21:52:12 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

I would think that a more aggressive war provoked by Germany against France might be a bit more problematic to Britain than a war between Germany and Russia. Britain would want to see Russia weakened as much as Germany wants to knock the Russian bear down, so it is only if France was attacked that Britain would raise its objections. Although you might also see a large and influential anti-communist American diaspora emerging in either Europe, Asia and Australia. Come to think of it, the anti-communist Americans might be eager to view Australia as an attractive destination due to a similarity in culture, as well as its geographic distance from the nightmare that their homeland is becoming. Assuming that Canada wouldn't be a good option due to its close proximity to the US. Although there is also a danger of sponsoring a pro-leftist coup in Canada as well.

   TheRomanSlayer,

  In a period where events in the US has lead to its defeat by a Anglo-German alliance and collapse into communism and WWI hasn't occurred any equivalent of the conflict in Europe would affect Britain.  It would support Germany if the latter was the subject of attack. However if Germany was seen as the aggressor and looked like winning big it would be an important issue for Britain as well as for any other state.  Even if that was a war against Russia only.  Simple balance of power would apply.  It might mean that Britain seeks to minimise German territorial gains and end up allying with France and a rump Russia to balance out a Germany that looked too powerful.

  There would be a large refugee issue with a communist US and a lot would depend on how it ended up after the civil war.  Some areas of the continental states and almost certainly Hawaii and Alaska will end up as refuges for the escapees probably under British/Canadian protection and some other areas might do as well.  I can't see most of such emigres moving beyond Canada however, although some of the richer ones or those from assorted national groups might end up going to parts of Europe.  Australia would attract a few but probably not many because of the distance/travel costs and its limited opportunities for great growth.

  One issue would be what happens with assorted minority groups, i.e. blacks, Jews, Italians, Irish etc.  It might depend on how their viewed by the new communist state.  In theory Bolshevik Russia was very egalitarian and in some ways it did live up to those ideas but it was also dominated largely by Slavs [Stalin being the obvious exception] and groups such as the Muslims of central Asia suffered a fair bit of discrimination so how a USSA lived up to its stated ideals could be important.  If to win popular support it backs continued racial segregation then you could also see a lot of blacks looking for a new home for instance.

  Steve

[TheRomanSlayer]

Another thing to consider between a communist America and OTL USSR was that unlike Tsarist Russia where consumer goods might have been rare, pre-communist America was already an industrial powerhouse, so I'm guessing that they may have already been producing numerous amounts of consumer goods by then. Heavy industry might have been stronger in America than in Russia, though under a communist government the US might become a bit careless with regards to the environment.

Alaska would definitely break away from communist America at this point, making it a potential area of anti-communist opposition to the US. At least the American upper class might end up in Australia, but the middle and working class might just move to Canada, unless the Canadians are subjected to Marxist infiltration as well. Hawaii on the other hand, I might also see them breaking away from the US, and the annexation of Hawaii might be fresh in the minds of the native Hawaiians in this case, so either they bring back the Hawaiian monarchy or they establish a republic instead.

I can definitely see a significant population of blacks embracing the communist regime, especially if said regime might try to abolish the Jim Crow laws decades early. As in OTL, there were also Jewish intellectuals who were also prominent communists as well, with Emma Goldman being the most prominent of them. The Irish on the other hand, might play a similar role to the Mensheviks in Russia in that they might prefer to go with the system to change it from within, though correct me if I'm wrong, but there were a lot of anarchists who moved to the US from Italy as well. I can definitely see the KKK escalating their political terrorism to cover leftists as a whole in addition to blacks and Catholics. I'm not sure if I'm wrong as well, but the KKK had also backed President Calles of Mexico during his war against the Cristero rebels, so funnily enough, you could see a split in the KKK with the anti-Catholic faction being vulnerable to left-wing infiltration (thus possibly making an American version of National Bolshevism) while the mainly anti-black faction sticking to pogroms.

[gillan1220]

Speaking of Hawaii, I remember clearly the U.S. and Japan almost went to war over it in 1897. Had the U.S. became a communist state, I'd see the Navy in California for Hawaii while the ships based in Washington head for Canada or Alaska. I think Hawaii would host the free USN and would probably be an ally of Japan.

By the way, what happens to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands here?

[TheRomanSlayer]

That might be a bit tricky since Spain would have ceded Cuba and Puerto Rico to the US. I could think of the British wanting to secure their independence from a communist American government, though they might also be vulnerable to a renewed American invasion. Puerto Rico under a communist American control might put the rest of the Caribbean Islands within striking range of the US Navy. At this time Denmark still has the Virgin Islands, so most likely they would be purchased by the British before the Americans would. That might not have any effects on the Caribbean Islands, though if Britain also took over Puerto Rico as war spoils from the US, they might merge the two Virgin Islands with Puerto Rico. Dominion of Porto Rico, anyone?

An Alaskan Republic that is virtually an Anglo-Canadian satellite state surrounded by Canada and Russia might be feasible, and a larger American population (of anti-communist leanings) might also have an effect on the development of Alaska as a whole, though you could also see more Canadian immigration to Alaska from there. Charles M. Hays's proposal to build Prince Rupert as a rival port to Vancouver might actually be supported by the British and the anti-communist American diaspora as a way of creating a gateway between the Canadian West Coast and Alaska. Ironically, you might also have a small Japanese-American immigrant population living in the US flee to either Canada or Alaska because of the communists, though there may be a few percentage of Japanese-Americans who would actually support the communists. The Chinese-American population on the other hand, that may depend on the social status since the richer Chinese families in the US might opt to flee to Canada while the poorer populations might also join such communist movements there.

A realistic Kingdom of Hawaii might become Japan's first puppet state or ally in the Pacific, though a smaller American diaspora there might play a role in Hawaiian politics (mostly swinging in favor of a Republican form of government). The Dole Company which controls the pineapple plantations might have a stronger control there, coining the term 'pineapple republic' as a phrase to indicate an unstable state that relies on the exports of pineapples instead of any other fruit.

[gillan1220]

Nov 30, 2020 3:28:31 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

That might be a bit tricky since Spain would have ceded Cuba and Puerto Rico to the US. I could think of the British wanting to secure their independence from a communist American government, though they might also be vulnerable to a renewed American invasion. Puerto Rico under a communist American control might put the rest of the Caribbean Islands within striking range of the US Navy. At this time Denmark still has the Virgin Islands, so most likely they would be purchased by the British before the Americans would. That might not have any effects on the Caribbean Islands, though if Britain also took over Puerto Rico as war spoils from the US, they might merge the two Virgin Islands with Puerto Rico. Dominion of Porto Rico, anyone?

An Alaskan Republic that is virtually an Anglo-Canadian satellite state surrounded by Canada and Russia might be feasible, and a larger American population (of anti-communist leanings) might also have an effect on the development of Alaska as a whole, though you could also see more Canadian immigration to Alaska from there. Charles M. Hays's proposal to build Prince Rupert as a rival port to Vancouver might actually be supported by the British and the anti-communist American diaspora as a way of creating a gateway between the Canadian West Coast and Alaska. Ironically, you might also have a small Japanese-American immigrant population living in the US flee to either Canada or Alaska because of the communists, though there may be a few percentage of Japanese-Americans who would actually support the communists. The Chinese-American population on the other hand, that may depend on the social status since the richer Chinese families in the US might opt to flee to Canada while the poorer populations might also join such communist movements there.

A realistic Kingdom of Hawaii might become Japan's first puppet state or ally in the Pacific, though a smaller American diaspora there might play a role in Hawaiian politics (mostly swinging in favor of a Republican form of government). The Dole Company which controls the pineapple plantations might have a stronger control there, coining the term 'pineapple republic' as a phrase to indicate an unstable state that relies on the exports of pineapples instead of any other fruit.

I see the Caribbean being the domain of Britain or other European powers. Too risky to have it fall under the communist America.

Alaska would probably be a protectorate of Canada and by extension to Britain. However, it maybe sandwhiched between the USSR and the USSA/PRA.

I think majority of the Japanese or Japanese-Americans would transfer to Hawaii since the territory housed a Japanese diaspora. Plus, the USN would secure Pearl Harbor to prevent it from falling to the USSA/PRA. We'd probably have some sort of mutual defense agreements with the Empire of Japan. So it's possible we may be see a joint IJN-USN base in there.

[TheRomanSlayer]

I don't think that a communist revolution would even be happening in Russia. Having Stolypin survive the assassination attempt on his life might result in a pseudo-constitutional monarchy that might arise from this, and while an absence of a communist Russia would miss out on the massive breakneck industrialization campaign seen during Stalin IOTL, they might have gone for a Bukharin-esque agrarian reform that would have made Russia a premier textile based power. However, you might also have an even worse anti-Jewish pogrom in Russia that may result in a larger Jewish immigration to the US, contributing to the growth of the American left there.

I'm not sure how many Japanese-Americans were living in the continental US and Hawaii, though if their numbers are large, that might raise a nervous reaction from the American diaspora and the Hawaiian people in that if the Japanese population of Hawaii might exert more influence there, they could easily petition to have Hawaii be annexed by Japan a la Korea, though with a bit more influence from said Japanese population there. Realistically, we could have a Hawaiian Republic that is allied to Japan that houses what is left of the anti-communist US Navy units at Pearl Harbor.

[gillan1220]

Nov 30, 2020 5:06:47 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

I don't think that a communist revolution would even be happening in Russia. Having Stolypin survive the assassination attempt on his life might result in a pseudo-constitutional monarchy that might arise from this, and while an absence of a communist Russia would miss out on the massive breakneck industrialization campaign seen during Stalin IOTL, they might have gone for a Bukharin-esque agrarian reform that would have made Russia a premier textile based power. However, you might also have an even worse anti-Jewish pogrom in Russia that may result in a larger Jewish immigration to the US, contributing to the growth of the American left there.

I'm not sure how many Japanese-Americans were living in the continental US and Hawaii, though if their numbers are large, that might raise a nervous reaction from the American diaspora and the Hawaiian people in that if the Japanese population of Hawaii might exert more influence there, they could easily petition to have Hawaii be annexed by Japan a la Korea, though with a bit more influence from said Japanese population there. Realistically, we could have a Hawaiian Republic that is allied to Japan that houses what is left of the anti-communist US Navy units at Pearl Harbor.

Hawaii and probably the other U.S. territories like Puerto Rico would fall under other countries' protection. Too valuable to have them fall under a Red America.

[TheRomanSlayer]

Hawaii could also retain its monarchy, but other US territories would be snatched up by Britain or France. At this point, the European powers might be a bit more comfortable with undermining the Monroe Doctrine.

[stevep]

Dec 16, 2020 4:53:16 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

Hawaii could also retain its monarchy, but other US territories would be snatched up by Britain or France. At this point, the European powers might be a bit more comfortable with undermining the Monroe Doctrine.

  Not only that but a lot of the local population would probably prefer it to being under communist control.

  With Hawaii it would depend on the date as to whether the monarchy was restored as not sure how quickly American settlers become demographically as opposed to militarily/economically dominant.  However if early enough I could see either/both of Japan or Britain happy to restore the monarchy, possibly as a compromise.

  If its after ~1914/16 then the future of the Panama Canal Zone and possibly Panama itself could be interesting.  Could Columbia, possibly with the support of some external great power, seek to restore its control of Panama?  Could you get an agreement for an international control of the Canal itself.  If not Britain is probably the power to step in with the greatest naval power and interest in trade in the region.

  Thinking about it a successful communist revolution is likely to undermine the entire position of a lot of the powerful US economic interests that dominated a lot of the isthmus between Mexico and Columbia with the assorted banana republics seeing an overthrow of US economic domination.  This might possibly prompt foreign intervention if this was seen as pro-communist however so things could be complex and very messy there.

  Steve