gillan1220
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I've been depressed recently. Slow replies coming in the next few days.
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Post by gillan1220 on Jan 10, 2021 3:32:37 GMT
The H-6 Xian bomber has a range of 6,000 km, and judging by the close proximity between the targets in the Philippines and the Chinese airfields scattered throughout the Southern and Eastern Theater Commands, it might be doable. In addition, you also have fighter planes that would target key Philippine areas, ranging from highways to even industrial centers. Keep in mind that Manila during the 1990s has not yet been cleaned, so the figure of 500,000 dead from bombing raids might be a bit realistic (if you take into consideration the effects from the type of bombs dropped on the Philippines, as well as the state of the food supplies). Would the F-5s shoot some down? |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 10, 2021 3:50:10 GMT
Possibly, but given the possible economic sanctions, that might also have an effect on the amount of fuel they would consume, just to keep the F-5s in the air. That does not mean, the PLAAF would have an easy reign over the skies for the first few weeks of the bombing campaign. Although Scarborough Shoal might become a possible target as well, though I can predict some hotheaded PLAAF wanting to bring out the nukes, only to be shot down by either Ye Fei or Wang Dongxing.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 10, 2021 7:25:03 GMT
Chapter Twenty-Two: The Hammer that Slammed Down
FORMER PRESIDENT AQUINO IN FINE CONDITION, TADIAR REPORTS, AS UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY DISCUSSES POSSIBLE LIMITED SANCTIONS, ARMS EMBARGO ON PHILIPPINES
Philippine Daily Inquirer
January 29, 1989
Manila, NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION – Defense Minister and leader of the Council for National Sovereignty, Brigadier General Artemio Tadiar, had confirmed reports that former President Corazon Aquino is doing well while incarcerated in Fort Bonifacio, alongside her children. Additional reports made by Tadiar revealed that the former President is being well fed, and her children are also getting the medical attention they needed, in stark contrast to Tadiar’s treatment of the Marcos and Romualdez families, where they were not only neglected, but had left them in a position where they were easily killed or died under mysterious circumstances. The report on former President Aquino’s health condition comes at a time when the United Nations General Assembly is discussing possible sanctions on the Philippines, but the United States ambassador to the UN has objected to total economic sanctions, since the Philippine Civil War had damaged a bit of the nation’s infrastructure, but the Chinese ambassador to the UN was not convinced.
“The growing disturbances of the Philippine fascist dictatorship is an indication that the United States has become irresponsible when it comes to managing the affairs of their puppet and former colony,” comments Chinese ambassador to the UN, Li Luye. “As a result of this affair, our government is pushing for an arms embargo and limited sanctions on various individuals.”
However, talks of limited sanctions had gone nowhere because of the American veto power. At the same time, the Chinese proposal for an arms embargo was limited to just the ban on the exports of heavy weaponry and military equipment for all branches of the AFP, though the exports of small arms were still permissible. In a unanimous decision made by both the Security Council and the General Assembly, a limited arms embargo was imposed on the Philippines and would not be lifted unless Brigadier General Tadiar would release the former President and change the sentence of her house arrest. In an apparent attempt to stave off the possibility of economic sanctions, the Tadiar-led junta will allow the President’s children to leave the Philippines, and to settle in Canada until Tadiar would leave.
“We still recognize the strategic value of the Philippines as a vital part of our defense strategy in our containment of Chinese communism. Therefore, imposing economic sanctions and a bigger arms embargo would be counterproductive in the short term,” says President Bob Dole after being asked about how the economic sanctions would go if Tadiar continues to violate not only basic human rights, but international and Philippine law. “However, we cannot turn a blind eye to the increasing reports of human rights violations, such as torture, forced labor and even murder in several places.”
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Excerpts from “Tadiar: Portrait of a Corrosive Dictator”
Published by: Journeyman Pictures (2017)
“The start of the Tadiar dictatorship was eerily like the previous Marcos dictatorship, with Martial Law being proclaimed by Brigadier General Tadiar after the coup was completed. As was the case with the Marcos dictatorship, the civilians became familiar with the presence of soldiers asking for their papers and identification cards. Where the Tadiar dictatorship differs from the Marcos dictatorship though, is how they handled the growing economic crisis within the country. For instance, more than a hundred former Marcos cronies have been arrested by the Tadiar junta, along with their families. They did not need to put them in a show trial because the evidence of their economic crimes was given to the junta authorities by law enforcement and by disgruntled employees who used to work for them. In one case, when the newly promoted Lieutenant Colonel Saulito Aromin had investigated the role of the Binondo Central Bank’s role in stabilizing the Philippine Peso, he initially thought about arresting Roberto Ongpin on charges of economic treason, but decided to keep his services and to persuade Tadiar to use the Filipino-Chinese businessmen for economic purposes until China’s military aggression in the Spratly Islands conflict prompted Tadiar to turn against the Filipino-Chinese businessmen, mainly by the confiscation of their entire property and even hired the services of both the Japanese Yakuza and members of the Taiwanese Bamboo Union for an elaborate operation, targeting the Filipino-Chinese business community. The false business opportunity that was concocted by the Bamboo Union and the Yakuza involved luring Filipino Chinese businessmen to start investing in a new real estate development in Macau (back then it was a Portuguese colony) and Hong Kong, to bring them there. Bamboo Union members would pose as ‘legitimate’ business investors and partners to persuade the unwitting victims to invest in the new real estate that is being built (ironically, the Macanese colonial government was pushing for construction of new homes within Macau), in exchange for handing over some of their wealth as collateral. When the scam victims would hand over much of their money, the Bamboo Union members would hand over the information on their wealth to the Yakuza, who would then relay it to the Tadiar-led junta. The information gathered over several months, combined with the junta’s competent intelligence service, had led to what the Filipino Chinese exiles call the Great Oriental Excursion, named after the Great Excursion in 1989 when the Turkish minority in Bulgaria went on a trip to Turkey, only to be denied permission to head back into Bulgarian territory. Just as what happened with the Bulgarian Turks who were suddenly expelled, Tadiar would issue Order Proclamation No. 9276 in February of 1997, giving orders to the military and NICA to round up all Filipinos with Chinese ancestry, and send them into Binondo and Intramuros, which had been transformed into an internment camp. The Filipino Chinese business community who fell for the Macau Scam, had been denied permission to return to the Philippines, under pain of death, as their properties and wealth were suddenly confiscated without any consideration for the economic health of the country.
While contemporary historians can say that Tadiar should have been arrested for economic crimes, and rightly so, Tadiar would not use the confiscated wealth for his own ends, but rather, to transfer it to the Philippine treasury. The Macanese colonial government and the Singaporean government offered political asylum to the exiled Filipino Chinese population who found themselves banned from returning to their country. As for the remaining Filipino Chinese population who were stuck in the Philippines, the ones who could not afford to bribe the Tadiar junta were given only two options, based on how much they were assimilated: if a Filipino Chinese family with the surname that also adds 'son' or 'zon' on their original Chinese surname, they would be left alone, considering that they would renounce their Chinese ancestry and embrace their Filipino identity (assuming they can speak Filipino or English). If a Filipino Chinese family has kept their original Chinese surname, but could not speak even a word of Mandarin (or usually Hokkien), they would be asked to either change it to a Filipino-Spanish, native Filipino or simply add 'son' or 'zon' on it, and renouce their Chinese heritage. However, if a Filipino Chinese family not only kept their Chinese surname, but are able to speak Chinese, they would be persuaded to immigrate to either Singapore or Macau, or even the Anglophone countries. The confiscation of the wealth and property owned by the prominent rich Filipino Chinese clans had resulted in the Philippines became the epicenter of the growing 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, where the Philippine Peso soon became worthless, combined with many of Tadiar's other economic errors he made. Many people had by then began to doubt in Tadiar’s ability to manage the country’s economy, but in October of 1997, Tadiar would stun the world with yet another bold move: he ordered the Central Bank of the Philippines to be abolished, and for the Philippine government to assume its authority on the production of currency notes. His so-called ‘Blueback’ Peso was merely an inspiration from both former President Abraham Lincoln’s ‘Greenback’ US dollar used during the American Civil War, and more recently, Russian Minister for Reconstruction Boris Yeltsin’s proposal and acceptance by Russian President Gennady Burbulis, the new Russian Denga currency, nicknamed the Oliveback. The slave labor provided by the captive political prisoners, many of whom were left wing activists, former NPA militants and former Marcos supporters, worked in various economic and military projects, improving roads, highways and building bridges throughout the Philippines. In addition, the Lamon-Laguna-Paranaque Canal was another ambitious project that took place between 1996 and 2011, though had they gotten access to better canal building techniques, it would have taken at least 8 years to complete instead of 15, but due to limited amount of equipment needed to move the dirt, it was the most labor-intensive project that the Philippines has ever seen. By the time the canal was completed, maritime traffic into and out of the Philippines had drastically been cut, and ships did not need to go around Luzon to get to Manila. Even so, the relocation of the capital from Manila to Kabankalan did take place until 2002.
The negative criticism towards the assimilationist policy pursued by Tadiar after 1996 towards the Filipino Chinese community did not faze him, but it did result in a small exodus of said population to the Anglophone countries. It is not surprising that from time to time, Filipinos of Chinese ancestry found themselves being targeted for racial abuse by both the non-Chinese Filipinos and actual ethnic Chinese who immigrated to other countries. In one incident in Seattle in 2005, three Filipino Chinese were beaten up by Chinese Americans because of their perceived inability to respond in Mandarin or Cantonese, often referring to their Filipino-raised brethren as 'dogs'. As for the remaining Filipino Chinese who could not get out of the Philippines, while the ones who are able to speak Chinese and could not renounce their Chinese ancestry had often found themselves in re-education camps, the assimilated ones were left alone by Tadiar, upon the recommendation of fellow junta follower Danilo Lim, but the Filipino Chinese could never rise to economic prominence ever again, as Tadiar would also invite wealthy Japanese, Korean and Latin American business owners and entrepreneurs to invest and settle in the Philippines. There were even a few Spanish business owners from Spain who arrived in the Philippines for business opportunities as well, although in Mindanao, the Bangsamoro Autonomous Province authorities had invited both Turkish and Gulf Arab business owners to the Philippines for the same opportunities.”
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“Industrialization of the Philippines was achieved by the Tadiar regime, but it was industrialization through the usage of slave labor involving political prisoners. The improvement of the entire Philippine highway and rail network was done with 15% slave labor. The construction of the Lamon-Laguna-Paranaque Canal was also done with 20% slave labor, as was the construction of airfields, harbors, army bases and especially factories, where they built military equipment. In addition, hydroelectric dams were also built throughout Luzon and Mindanao, also with the help of slave labor. Even as early as 1991, concentration camps in the Philippines have hosted a combined total of 60,000 people in multiple camps throughout the country. Worst of all, the convict labor-built infrastructure had been exploited by ambitious Japanese companies seeking to make huge profits in the Philippines.” From Isaac Feldman’s documentary “Political Slavery in Tadiar’s Philippines”, endorsed by “The American Cause”.
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“In 1995 there were only 2,400 ethnic Japanese living in the Philippines. From 1996 onwards until 2005, over 500,000 Japanese immigrants had arrived in the Philippines. Some of them came from Japan, while others had been lured by better living standards than what they had in Latin America. For example, Daniel Matsunaga had been invited to play for the Philippine national football team, and had accepted, despite him being qualified to play for the Brazilian national football team. A quarter of Brazil’s Japanese population had immigrated to the Philippines because of better business opportunities, and because of the growing ties between the Philippines and Latin America, which also saw over 400,000 Latin Americans immigrate to the Philippines between 2000 and 2015. All this demographic transformation, at the expense of the Filipino Chinese population, which had been severely persecuted and slowly killed, just because Tadiar lost the war to China due to his own hotheaded behavior towards China. If I had been President, I would say to China, let us be friends. Thanks to Tadiar, Filipinos and Chinese will always have the tendency to kill each other.” Rodrigo Duterte, from an interview with Channel News Asia, July 2017, regarding the demographic transformation of the Philippines.
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TADIAR AND PRIME MINISTER HASHIMOTO MEET IN KABANKALAN TO DISCUSS JAPANESE HUMANITARIAN MISSION TO PHILIPPINES, WWII VETERANS AND COMFORT WOMEN SURVIVORS PROTEST PM’S VISIT
Philippine Daily Inquirer
January 20, 1997
Kabankalan, NEGROS ISLAND – Brigadier General Artemio Tadiar is set to host Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto in the first foreign state visit to the Philippines since the Marcos era, amidst a large protest breaking out in Manila and Davao. The meeting between the two heads of state comes at a time when Japanese nationalist groups began to raise their profile over China’s military aggression in the West Philippine Sea* and the illegal seizure of the Spratly Islands chain (Tadiar never signed a peace treaty with China on the final status of the Chinese occupation of Scarborough Shoal) by the Chinese military and began to view the Philippines as a little brother in need of assistance.
“When the United States chose to let China pummel us into the ground, only Japan offered to protect us. Although we did have a history with the Japanese, dating back to World War Two, our decision to foster closer relations with Japan will benefit the two countries in the long run,” comments Artemio Tadiar when asked by an NHK reporter on the deepening of Filipino-Japanese diplomatic ties. “In addition, we offer our country as a home for any Japanese business owner or immigrant to come and settle here, for us to receive your country’s technical expertise. Although we have our people in your country as guest workers, we can create a treaty that will ease the borders between our two nations.”
When Prime Minister Hashimoto was asked about Tadiar’s request for Japanese humanitarian and economic assistance, he had difficulty in finding the right answer.
“While technically, the Philippines is under UN economic sanctions, the United States’ call for the lifting of the sanctions by incoming President Jack Kemp is a sign that China’s military aggression has significantly damaged SE Asia’s diplomatic standing. Vietnam is also suffering from Chinese aggression, as most of its northern territories had been bombed to oblivion. Japan will also offer a helping hand to Vietnam as well, and to eventually form an alliance between us and the two SE Asian nations,” Hashimoto said to the reporter. “However, Article 9 of our constitution has effectively tied our hands, and as a result, we are useless militarily to Vietnam and the Philippines. The topic of Article 9 must be discussed. We cannot be afraid of what other nations say about what we did in the Great East Asia War anymore.”
The presence of Prime Minister Hashimoto, along with the recent arrivals of Japanese immigrants into the Philippines, with numerous Japanese settlers living in Manila, Davao, Kabankalan, Cebu and most recently, Carranglan, had been the source of tensions between Tadiar and his political opponents. However, the protests by WWII veterans were particularly embarrassing for Tadiar, since they were the ones who fought the Japanese Army during the occupation of the Philippines. In addition, the protests in Davao, led by National Democratic Front Chairman Rodrigo Duterte, was also harsh. The military authorities promptly broke up the protest, but not before Duterte was asked by a reporter on the presence of the Japanese Prime Minister.
“Brigadier General Tadiar has disgraced the memories of the veterans who fought to free the Philippines from the Japanese Army, by inviting them back in! He also spits on the memory of the comfort women who were forced to work as sex slaves to the Imperial Japanese military! His eagerness to flood our country with many Japanese, especially coming from both Japan and Brazil, has resulted in Davao becoming the center of the Japanese population in the Philippines once again!” Duterte shouted in front of the reporter. “And now, we have the return of the KALIBAPI, under the new name Fatherland Freedom Party, which Tadiar is personally leading! We need to stop the revival of the Makapili spirit, or we will not survive! How long until we are forced to learn how to speak Japanese, adopt Japanese names, and be assimilated into this Second Japanese Empire? Davao City now has the largest Japanese population in all of the Philippines, with over 25,000 Japanese residents living in there! That's 7,000 more than the 18,000 Japanese settlers who acted as spies for the Imperial Japanese Army!”
Tadiar’s response to the protest Prime Minister Hashimoto’s visit to the Philippines was brutal, but swift. In addition to police action against the protesters, he also made harsh comments towards the protesters.
“The people who are rioting at the presence of the Japanese Prime Minister are the same ones who were silent when Chinese bombers were dropping their payload into their homes! They said nothing while China’s soldiers had massacred our brave defenders in Kalayaan Island! They are paid with Chinese money to protest the Japanese presence here!” Tadiar shouted, while his troops had used teargas to beat back the protesters.
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“The formation of the Fatherland Freedom Party, or the Partidong Bagong Amang Bansa, by Tadiar in late 1996, was the result of the Chinese military aggression in SE Asia. He realized that there would be a drop in morale, he instead used the Chinese presence as a rallying cry to the skeptics to join the defense of the nation, or they would become communist slaves of Beijing. The members who joined the PBAB came from universities and colleges, but many of the members were active military personnel. Their party uniforms were influenced by the Spanish Falange, while the flags they adopted was basically the old KALIBAPI flag, though in black, with a white and red circle, with the Baybayin character for ‘ka’. The PBAB normally held patriotic rallies in support of the Filipino state, often with the allied organization, the Nationalist ‘Magdalo’ Association of the Philippines, and that was led by Nicanor Faeldon, one of Tadiar’s proteges. The patriotic rallies that we saw in Davao, we saw not only the modified black KALIBAPI flag, but the modified black version of the infamous Makapili flag. We also saw Spanish Falange flags, Burgundy crosses and even the Japanese Rising Sun flag used by the IJN at the rallies too. Make no mistake about this: Tadiar is going to do the unthinkable: he is going to rehabilitate the Filipino collaborators who worked for the Japanese during WWII.” From a former Philippine Marine Corps officer who defected to Australia, May 1999.
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gillan1220
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I've been depressed recently. Slow replies coming in the next few days.
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Post by gillan1220 on Jan 10, 2021 7:28:10 GMT
Well the U.S. would be officially known for leaving the strategic region known as the Philippines to China. That would come to bite them in the ass for the decades to come.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 10, 2021 7:40:07 GMT
Well the U.S. would be officially known for leaving the strategic region known as the Philippines to China. That would come to bite them in the ass for the decades to come. Actually, it would have been under President Jackson's watch. Remember that Bob Dole was hesitant in imposing sanctions on the Philippines because of Tadiar's antics. And it might have already bit them in the ass, especially if TTL's Prime Minister Hashimoto is openly talking about repealing Article 9 of the Japanese constitution, as well as forming the Asian equivalent of the Maastricht Treaty that opens border between EU member states (or as we may call it, the European Economic Community). Even before the rise of Jesse Jackson as President, there is still the Mount Pinatubo eruption, which I will cover in the next update. The Mount Pinatubo eruption had rendered US military bases in the Philippines inoperable because of the volcanic ash that has littered the bases. Yep, the inevitable protests against the flood of Japanese migrants to the Philippines has been predictable. To top it all off, it is TTL's Duterte who is leading the anti-Japanese protests. In addition, the section about Tadiar's patriotic rallies is reminiscent of this, as well as the formation of the New Fatherland Party being the second coming of KALIBAPI, and the Nationalist "Magdalo" Association of the Philippines becoming the extra-parliamentary allied movement as well. Yep, Jesse Jackson in this timeline would be known as the man who singlehandedly pushed Tadiar to rehabilitate known Filipino collaborators who worked with Japan, including (ironically enough) Noynoy Aquino's own grandfather, who worked in the Philippine Executive Commission. It would not surprise me if in the future Tadiar might even have a new anthem that is a modification of this song, but add some music in it. |
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gillan1220
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I've been depressed recently. Slow replies coming in the next few days.
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Post by gillan1220 on Jan 10, 2021 7:59:06 GMT
Well the U.S. would be officially known for leaving the strategic region known as the Philippines to China. That would come to bite them in the ass for the decades to come. Actually, it would have been under President Jackson's watch. Remember that Bob Dole was hesitant in imposing sanctions on the Philippines because of Tadiar's antics. And it might have already bit them in the ass, especially if TTL's Prime Minister Hashimoto is openly talking about repealing Article 9 of the Japanese constitution, as well as forming the Asian equivalent of the Maastricht Treaty that opens border between EU member states (or as we may call it, the European Economic Community). Even before the rise of Jesse Jackson as President, there is still the Mount Pinatubo eruption, which I will cover in the next update. The Mount Pinatubo eruption had rendered US military bases in the Philippines inoperable because of the volcanic ash that has littered the bases. Yep, the inevitable protests against the flood of Japanese migrants to the Philippines has been predictable. To top it all off, it is TTL's Duterte who is leading the anti-Japanese protests. In addition, the section about Tadiar's patriotic rallies is reminiscent of this, as well as the formation of the New Fatherland Party being the second coming of KALIBAPI, and the Nationalist "Magdalo" Association of the Philippines becoming the extra-parliamentary allied movement as well. Yep, Jesse Jackson in this timeline would be known as the man who singlehandedly pushed Tadiar to rehabilitate known Filipino collaborators who worked with Japan, including (ironically enough) Noynoy Aquino's own grandfather, who worked in the Philippine Executive Commission. It would not surprise me if in the future Tadiar might even have a new anthem that is a modification of this song, but add some music in it. Speaking of a resurgent Japan, is it possible that the AFP may procure military hardware from them? |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 10, 2021 8:09:17 GMT
That might come a bit soon, although the official repealing of Article 9 might come during the Legarda presidency or the late stages of Tadiar’s dictatorship. Most likely when Loren Legards becomes president, as to ensure that the rest of Asia doesn’t get mad that Japan is selling weapons to dictatorships.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 10, 2021 13:31:54 GMT
Even more curious about the Sino-Philippine War. I'm not sure if Chinese bombers could reach the Philippines though especially in this period. What too were the targets in the Philippines? The H-6 Xian bomber has a range of 6,000 km, and judging by the close proximity between the targets in the Philippines and the Chinese airfields scattered throughout the Southern and Eastern Theater Commands, it might be doable. In addition, you also have fighter planes that would target key Philippine areas, ranging from highways to even industrial centers. Keep in mind that Manila during the 1990s has not yet been cleaned, so the figure of 500,000 dead from bombing raids might be a bit realistic (if you take into consideration the effects from the type of bombs dropped on the Philippines, as well as the state of the food supplies).
I could see Tadiar going for something like that but what would there be in it for the white minority government? The Philippines wouldn't really have any economic assets and the military are too busy suppressing their own population for large numbers to be sent to S Africa, which might also be politically very explosive. Also its likely that sooner or later news would leak out, which would be even more explosive.
Plus as has already been mentioned the regime would have problems maintaining such a capacity as its likely to be expensive and also they would need some system to deliver it.
I don't think the Philippines has the capability of building even one nuclear bomb. Plus the Bataan nuclear plant in the long run might be unfeasible, given the Philippines' location in the Ring of Fire, it could have a worse impact than OTL Chernobyl if it was damaged.
Interesting. The CIA are emerging as a state within a state here as even within a Jackson Presidency and despite the crimes highlighted during the Reagan period their still involved in operations to undermine stability and democracy in other countries, resulting here in a bloody civil war in Mexico. Which even the idiots in the CIA must recognise as a mistake as its going to cause a massive refugee crisis with many seeking to escape to the US.
Also interesting that we may see the Kuwait invasion avoided here, although that could mean Saddam's regime lasting longer as well. Mind you given his character I suspect that Burbulis and Lebed giving him good advice would be likely to see him seeking to switch back to supporting the loyalists, especially if he could get support for such an operation. Especially with the problems in the US Saddam might even get away with an invasion here and possibly be tempted to extend into Saudi if there's no one opposing him.
So with a murderous regime in the Philippines, which is acting with and supporting a similar one in Chile, civil war in Mexico leading to another military dictatorship here as well as bloody massacres in Nicaragua and China being more aggressive earlier, then a Russian civil war this is getting very dystopian.
I can't remember if your side much but what is happening in eastern Europe with Russia in civil war and the US bogged down in fighting in Mexico and elsewhere. Is the WP still in existence or is it falling apart?
Steve
The 'civil war' we are seeing in Mexico ITTL is more of a low-key to mid-key Chiapas conflict, though with the addition of the volunteers and their reputation on the battlefield, let's say that their actions would give stronger support to the Zapatistas as well. Not that they would care, since it would only encourage more atrocities, sadly speaking. I doubt that the Soviet loyalists might be able to give Saddam permission to attack Kuwait, let alone supply the Iraqis with military hardware, since the civil war will take priority over Iraq's military adventures. Plus what we will see before 1990 is that with a Bob Dole administration, they might have a different policy towards Iraq as well. Another thing too, is that the US would be so busy being bogged down in yet another jungle attrition warfare, this time in Nicaragua, that they might not have any more troops to spare for any possible Middle Eastern military adventure. Granted, the Sadinistas would still be alive and kicking, but with the US inside Nicaragua, that might have an effect on Panama as well. (Manuel Noriega might keep a low profile, or do something stupid). By 1989, I think we can safely assume that the Warsaw Pact would dissolve, on schedule. Also, we might also visit South Africa and what is happening right now, since that country is ripe for a Yugoslav-style civil war that almost happened IOTL (the AWB misadventures in one of the Bantustans might be ugly TTL).
I was assuming that the 500,000 dead was rhetoric on Tadiar's part, plus possibly hoping to hide the extend of his own massacres statistically. If their actually dead in a clash with China and especially since their mostly civilians then that would change things hugely. No matter how much he's fucked up in breaking the Philippines and then getting them into a war with China there would almost certainly be widespread outrage in the wider world, especially with China attacking Vietnam at the same time.
In terms of nukes the suggestion was that they obtained them from S Africa rather than construct them themselves, which would be pretty much impossible especially with an idiot like Tadiar as dictator. As I said however I don't really see any motive for the S African government to supply them.
The conflict in Mexico is still going to be hugely devastating, especially with psychos from Chile and Tadiar's Philippines leading the massacres. Not to mention the attempts at defence and retaliation. You would have a lot more chaos and many more refugees, most of which would head north. Both the lack of trade and industrial exchange with Mexico compared to OTL and the flow of refugees would have a big impact on the US economically, socially and politically. I'm also amazed that the CIA continue to get away with such activities given all the disruption their caused. Especially since their earlier breaches of US law should have prompted a clear out of such elements.
The Soviet loyalists don't need to give permission, just not oppose Saddam's ideas. A lack of continued supplies from them would be more of an issue. Doubt that Dole would take much of a different line than Bush did OTL to an invasion of Kuwait, although if Saddam waited until the US had bogged itself down in Egypt, lost to China and then again in central America there might not be enough public support for an action against an Iraqi invasion and other than possibly Iran no one else is likely to be in a position to attempt to drive the Iraqis out. [And Iran would be seen as a worse option than Iraq to the leaders of the Gulf Arab states, including Saudi.]
The WP might well collapse roughly at the same time but it could well be a lot messier. Instead of a clear sign from Moscow that the Soviets won't support continued oppression, which gave the green light to reform you have Moscow and probably most of western Russia initially supporting a continuation of the Soviet empire and WP. They will withdraw most of their forces in E Europe as fighting with their opponents worsens but in the early stages there will still be substantial Soviet forces and backing from Moscow for a continuation of communist control. Plus knowing that Soviet forces might be withdrawn as the situation worsens could prompt at least some rulers to decide to stamp down hard on opponents while their got direct Soviet support. I would still suspect that most of Eastern Europe would end up non [and probably distinctly more than OTL anti ] communists but it could be a hell of a lot bloodier. Also with the US distracted and somewhat disgraced in western eyes and the rulers having the backing of Moscow nukes your unlikely to get direct aid from the west.
So your going to have a race war in S Africa as well. This world is looking very, very ugly. 
Steve
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 10, 2021 13:50:14 GMT
Well the U.S. would be officially known for leaving the strategic region known as the Philippines to China. That would come to bite them in the ass for the decades to come. Actually, it would have been under President Jackson's watch. Remember that Bob Dole was hesitant in imposing sanctions on the Philippines because of Tadiar's antics. And it might have already bit them in the ass, especially if TTL's Prime Minister Hashimoto is openly talking about repealing Article 9 of the Japanese constitution, as well as forming the Asian equivalent of the Maastricht Treaty that opens border between EU member states (or as we may call it, the European Economic Community). Even before the rise of Jesse Jackson as President, there is still the Mount Pinatubo eruption, which I will cover in the next update. The Mount Pinatubo eruption had rendered US military bases in the Philippines inoperable because of the volcanic ash that has littered the bases. Yep, the inevitable protests against the flood of Japanese migrants to the Philippines has been predictable. To top it all off, it is TTL's Duterte who is leading the anti-Japanese protests. In addition, the section about Tadiar's patriotic rallies is reminiscent of this, as well as the formation of the New Fatherland Party being the second coming of KALIBAPI, and the Nationalist "Magdalo" Association of the Philippines becoming the extra-parliamentary allied movement as well. Yep, Jesse Jackson in this timeline would be known as the man who singlehandedly pushed Tadiar to rehabilitate known Filipino collaborators who worked with Japan, including (ironically enough) Noynoy Aquino's own grandfather, who worked in the Philippine Executive Commission. It would not surprise me if in the future Tadiar might even have a new anthem that is a modification of this song, but add some music in it.
I think given the brutality of the Tadiar regime they probably don't have much choice. Coupled with their own embarrassment at the messes Dole got them in after Reagan's own fiasco and with the widespread use of slave labour. The treatment of the Chinese population is arguably a fully acceptable casus belli for China to go to war with the Philippines, let alone any disputes over territory. If Tadiar refused to release them then I would be surprised that China didn't actually invade the Philippines over the issue. [While Beijing may not care too much about the treatment of Chinese people under its rule it has a easy argument for action when other groups are treating them so savagely.] I'm less surprised with the lack of world reaction to the level of Chinese attacks on the Philippines, even if they were as destructive as Tadiar is claiming.
It should be remembered of course that slave labour, as shown in the Soviet and Nazis periods is a bloody inefficient way of getting anything done, especially when a brutal level of treatment gives no reason for the slaves to do more than they can get away with. As such Tadiar's infrastructure construction is an expensive way of doing things economically as well as socially and politically.
Steve
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gillan1220
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I've been depressed recently. Slow replies coming in the next few days.
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Post by gillan1220 on Jan 10, 2021 14:47:22 GMT
According to World Navies Yesterday, this is the strength of the PLA-N in 1985 and 1990 for reference. |
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Post by kyuzoaoi on Jan 10, 2021 17:28:20 GMT
I think you should not round up the entire Chinese community. You can assimilate those Chinese Filipinos who abandoned Chinese culture for a mainstream Filipino culture and use Spanish surnames. If your surname is Dizon and practice mainstream Filipino culture (attend Catholic Church, eat Filipino food, minimal Chinese influence) and speak Tagalog and English exclusively and cannot speak Chinese, you will be let go, and renounce your Chinese ancestry. If your surname is Chua and practice mainstream Filipino culture and speak Tagalog, a dialect, and English exclusively, you will be asked to change your surname to a Spanish one and renounce your Chinese ancestry. If your surname is Chua and practice Chinese culture exclusively, hang Chinese ornaments extensively, speak Hokkien or Chinese dialect like a native, tough luck, either you pay a bribe or go to the "re-education centers". Something like this... en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legislation_on_Chinese_Indonesians |
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Post by kyuzoaoi on Jan 10, 2021 17:32:23 GMT
BTW, I have Chinese ancestry, but my side of the family is the one that assimilated the most in Filipino culture and the poorest, so we might be forced to change our surnames to Filipino-Spanish ones. The richer side of my family might go to exile.
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gillan1220
Fleet admiral
I've been depressed recently. Slow replies coming in the next few days.
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Post by gillan1220 on Jan 10, 2021 17:35:44 GMT
I think you should not round up the entire Chinese community. You can assimilate those Chinese Filipinos who abandoned Chinese culture for a mainstream Filipino culture and use Spanish surnames. If your surname is Dizon and practice mainstream Filipino culture (attend Catholic Church, eat Filipino food, minimal Chinese influence) and speak Tagalog and English exclusively and cannot speak Chinese, you will be let go, and renounce your Chinese ancestry. If your surname is Chua and practice mainstream Filipino culture and speak Tagalog, a dialect, and English exclusively, you will be asked to change your surname to a Spanish one and renounce your Chinese ancestry. If your surname is Chua and practice Chinese culture exclusively, hang Chinese ornaments extensively, speak Hokkien or Chinese dialect like a native, tough luck, either you pay a bribe or go to the "re-education centers". Something like this... en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legislation_on_Chinese_IndonesiansAside from that, common Chinese surnames here in the Philippines is Tan, Uy, Yu, Chan, Po, Uytengsu, Lim, Ong, Hu, Ku, and Yuan. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 10, 2021 17:55:17 GMT
I think you should not round up the entire Chinese community. You can assimilate those Chinese Filipinos who abandoned Chinese culture for a mainstream Filipino culture and use Spanish surnames. If your surname is Dizon and practice mainstream Filipino culture (attend Catholic Church, eat Filipino food, minimal Chinese influence) and speak Tagalog and English exclusively and cannot speak Chinese, you will be let go, and renounce your Chinese ancestry. If your surname is Chua and practice mainstream Filipino culture and speak Tagalog, a dialect, and English exclusively, you will be asked to change your surname to a Spanish one and renounce your Chinese ancestry. If your surname is Chua and practice Chinese culture exclusively, hang Chinese ornaments extensively, speak Hokkien or Chinese dialect like a native, tough luck, either you pay a bribe or go to the " re-education centers". Something like this... en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legislation_on_Chinese_Indonesians
Would have to disagree here. Attempts to make sure that minorities are able to fully integrate are one thing. However if their legal citizens there's no basis for doing this by force, let alone if its being forced into concentration camps or enslaved as being mentioned here. 'Re-education camps' can cover a range of activities but none of them are likely to be either moral or good for the victims.
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Post by kyuzoaoi on Jan 10, 2021 18:32:30 GMT
Indeed. Maybe many will end up forming guerrilla bands of their own or join the NPAs. But even the NPAs distrust the Chinese-Filipinos.
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