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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 10, 2021 19:24:55 GMT
The H-6 Xian bomber has a range of 6,000 km, and judging by the close proximity between the targets in the Philippines and the Chinese airfields scattered throughout the Southern and Eastern Theater Commands, it might be doable. In addition, you also have fighter planes that would target key Philippine areas, ranging from highways to even industrial centers. Keep in mind that Manila during the 1990s has not yet been cleaned, so the figure of 500,000 dead from bombing raids might be a bit realistic (if you take into consideration the effects from the type of bombs dropped on the Philippines, as well as the state of the food supplies). I don't think the Philippines has the capability of building even one nuclear bomb. Plus the Bataan nuclear plant in the long run might be unfeasible, given the Philippines' location in the Ring of Fire, it could have a worse impact than OTL Chernobyl if it was damaged. The 'civil war' we are seeing in Mexico ITTL is more of a low-key to mid-key Chiapas conflict, though with the addition of the volunteers and their reputation on the battlefield, let's say that their actions would give stronger support to the Zapatistas as well. Not that they would care, since it would only encourage more atrocities, sadly speaking. I doubt that the Soviet loyalists might be able to give Saddam permission to attack Kuwait, let alone supply the Iraqis with military hardware, since the civil war will take priority over Iraq's military adventures. Plus what we will see before 1990 is that with a Bob Dole administration, they might have a different policy towards Iraq as well. Another thing too, is that the US would be so busy being bogged down in yet another jungle attrition warfare, this time in Nicaragua, that they might not have any more troops to spare for any possible Middle Eastern military adventure. Granted, the Sadinistas would still be alive and kicking, but with the US inside Nicaragua, that might have an effect on Panama as well. (Manuel Noriega might keep a low profile, or do something stupid). By 1989, I think we can safely assume that the Warsaw Pact would dissolve, on schedule. Also, we might also visit South Africa and what is happening right now, since that country is ripe for a Yugoslav-style civil war that almost happened IOTL (the AWB misadventures in one of the Bantustans might be ugly TTL).
I was assuming that the 500,000 dead was rhetoric on Tadiar's part, plus possibly hoping to hide the extend of his own massacres statistically. If their actually dead in a clash with China and especially since their mostly civilians then that would change things hugely. No matter how much he's fucked up in breaking the Philippines and then getting them into a war with China there would almost certainly be widespread outrage in the wider world, especially with China attacking Vietnam at the same time.
In terms of nukes the suggestion was that they obtained them from S Africa rather than construct them themselves, which would be pretty much impossible especially with an idiot like Tadiar as dictator. As I said however I don't really see any motive for the S African government to supply them.
The conflict in Mexico is still going to be hugely devastating, especially with psychos from Chile and Tadiar's Philippines leading the massacres. Not to mention the attempts at defence and retaliation. You would have a lot more chaos and many more refugees, most of which would head north. Both the lack of trade and industrial exchange with Mexico compared to OTL and the flow of refugees would have a big impact on the US economically, socially and politically. I'm also amazed that the CIA continue to get away with such activities given all the disruption their caused. Especially since their earlier breaches of US law should have prompted a clear out of such elements.
The Soviet loyalists don't need to give permission, just not oppose Saddam's ideas. A lack of continued supplies from them would be more of an issue. Doubt that Dole would take much of a different line than Bush did OTL to an invasion of Kuwait, although if Saddam waited until the US had bogged itself down in Egypt, lost to China and then again in central America there might not be enough public support for an action against an Iraqi invasion and other than possibly Iran no one else is likely to be in a position to attempt to drive the Iraqis out. [And Iran would be seen as a worse option than Iraq to the leaders of the Gulf Arab states, including Saudi.]
The WP might well collapse roughly at the same time but it could well be a lot messier. Instead of a clear sign from Moscow that the Soviets won't support continued oppression, which gave the green light to reform you have Moscow and probably most of western Russia initially supporting a continuation of the Soviet empire and WP. They will withdraw most of their forces in E Europe as fighting with their opponents worsens but in the early stages there will still be substantial Soviet forces and backing from Moscow for a continuation of communist control. Plus knowing that Soviet forces might be withdrawn as the situation worsens could prompt at least some rulers to decide to stamp down hard on opponents while their got direct Soviet support. I would still suspect that most of Eastern Europe would end up non [and probably distinctly more than OTL anti ] communists but it could be a hell of a lot bloodier. Also with the US distracted and somewhat disgraced in western eyes and the rulers having the backing of Moscow nukes your unlikely to get direct aid from the west.
So your going to have a race war in S Africa as well. This world is looking very, very ugly. 
Steve
The 500,000 figure might sadly be the case of Tadiar’s own massacres, but we can also take into account the amount of people who might from starvation as well, since the rice fields might be bombed as well. I would also think that the Soviet loyalists might also oppose Saddam’s plan for the invasion of Kuwait for the same reasons the Lebedite rebels had stated. I do believe that it is Nicaragua that the US would be stuck in, not Egypt. Although, the flow of Mexican refugees northwards could prompt an earlier “build that wall!” style rhetoric, especially if Nicaraguan refugees are also added into the mix as well. The dissolution of the Warsaw Pact will go on schedule, but there is also the possibility of ex-Warsaw Pact troops possibly launching a mutiny against their governments, and I would not be surprised if there may be Lebedite sympathizers within the Red Army garrison in the soon to be ex-WP member states (East Germany and Poland comes to mind) who would want to join in the fight. Though the presence of East German troops fighting alongside the pro-Lebed rebels may be a bit far fetched, having them fight alongside the Soviet loyalists might be even more dangerous, especially to the Poles who may impulsively side with Lebed due to the anti-Soviet attitude of the Poles. Look for one of the Red Army officers to pull a 'Lebed' in the ex-Warsaw Pact member states. Actually, it would have been under President Jackson's watch. Remember that Bob Dole was hesitant in imposing sanctions on the Philippines because of Tadiar's antics. And it might have already bit them in the ass, especially if TTL's Prime Minister Hashimoto is openly talking about repealing Article 9 of the Japanese constitution, as well as forming the Asian equivalent of the Maastricht Treaty that opens border between EU member states (or as we may call it, the European Economic Community). Even before the rise of Jesse Jackson as President, there is still the Mount Pinatubo eruption, which I will cover in the next update. The Mount Pinatubo eruption had rendered US military bases in the Philippines inoperable because of the volcanic ash that has littered the bases. Yep, the inevitable protests against the flood of Japanese migrants to the Philippines has been predictable. To top it all off, it is TTL's Duterte who is leading the anti-Japanese protests. In addition, the section about Tadiar's patriotic rallies is reminiscent of this, as well as the formation of the New Fatherland Party being the second coming of KALIBAPI, and the Nationalist "Magdalo" Association of the Philippines becoming the extra-parliamentary allied movement as well. Yep, Jesse Jackson in this timeline would be known as the man who singlehandedly pushed Tadiar to rehabilitate known Filipino collaborators who worked with Japan, including (ironically enough) Noynoy Aquino's own grandfather, who worked in the Philippine Executive Commission. It would not surprise me if in the future Tadiar might even have a new anthem that is a modification of this song, but add some music in it.
I think given the brutality of the Tadiar regime they probably don't have much choice. Coupled with their own embarrassment at the messes Dole got them in after Reagan's own fiasco and with the widespread use of slave labour. The treatment of the Chinese population is arguably a fully acceptable casus belli for China to go to war with the Philippines, let alone any disputes over territory. If Tadiar refused to release them then I would be surprised that China didn't actually invade the Philippines over the issue. [While Beijing may not care too much about the treatment of Chinese people under its rule it has a easy argument for action when other groups are treating them so savagely.] I'm less surprised with the lack of world reaction to the level of Chinese attacks on the Philippines, even if they were as destructive as Tadiar is claiming.
It should be remembered of course that slave labour, as shown in the Soviet and Nazis periods is a bloody inefficient way of getting anything done, especially when a brutal level of treatment gives no reason for the slaves to do more than they can get away with. As such Tadiar's infrastructure construction is an expensive way of doing things economically as well as socially and politically.
Steve
Although the start of the harsh persecution of the Chinese minority would start after the Chinese bombing of the Philippines, not before. However, I would not be surprised if the Chinese might opt for Round 2 in a few years down the road because of such treatment, although keep in mind that they did not go to war with Indonesia IOTL when they had their own anti-Chinese riots that killed a good amount of Chinese Indonesians. Though in one of the previous updates, Tadiar might even join forces with Aum Shinrikyo and use them to launch terrorist attacks on Chinese soil. I might do a retcon on the whole slave labor kind of thing, to change it to cheap labor, though it is the overseers who watch over the political prisoners who gets paid. For the road constructions though, I might base it on the new Burma Road that was being built recently, not the Burma Road from WWII. According to World Navies Yesterday, this is the strength of the PLA-N in 1985 and 1990 for reference. I will take a look at it, though the PLAAF might also take lessons from the Soviet and US air bombardment of their targets and apply it wholesale! |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 10, 2021 19:33:14 GMT
BTW, I have Chinese ancestry, but my side of the family is the one that assimilated the most in Filipino culture and the poorest, so we might be forced to change our surnames to Filipino-Spanish ones. The richer side of my family might go to exile. Your family ITTL could easily go under the radar, especially if they adopted Filipino-Spanish surnames, although I might do another retcon on this and say only the RICH Filipino-Chinese would be expelled, while the rest could be assimilated, just to lessen the political backlash. At best, Tadiar might adopt Suharto’s assimilation policy regarding their Chinese minority. I think you should not round up the entire Chinese community. You can assimilate those Chinese Filipinos who abandoned Chinese culture for a mainstream Filipino culture and use Spanish surnames. If your surname is Dizon and practice mainstream Filipino culture (attend Catholic Church, eat Filipino food, minimal Chinese influence) and speak Tagalog and English exclusively and cannot speak Chinese, you will be let go, and renounce your Chinese ancestry. If your surname is Chua and practice mainstream Filipino culture and speak Tagalog, a dialect, and English exclusively, you will be asked to change your surname to a Spanish one and renounce your Chinese ancestry. If your surname is Chua and practice Chinese culture exclusively, hang Chinese ornaments extensively, speak Hokkien or Chinese dialect like a native, tough luck, either you pay a bribe or go to the "re-education centers". Something like this... en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legislation_on_Chinese_IndonesiansAside from that, common Chinese surnames here in the Philippines is Tan, Uy, Yu, Chan, Po, Uytengsu, Lim, Ong, Hu, Ku, and Yuan. That could be something Tadiar may do down the road, although the reverse could be true for the Filipinos of Japanese ancestry who had to disguise themselves as Filipino Chinese after WWII. I think you should not round up the entire Chinese community. You can assimilate those Chinese Filipinos who abandoned Chinese culture for a mainstream Filipino culture and use Spanish surnames. If your surname is Dizon and practice mainstream Filipino culture (attend Catholic Church, eat Filipino food, minimal Chinese influence) and speak Tagalog and English exclusively and cannot speak Chinese, you will be let go, and renounce your Chinese ancestry. If your surname is Chua and practice mainstream Filipino culture and speak Tagalog, a dialect, and English exclusively, you will be asked to change your surname to a Spanish one and renounce your Chinese ancestry. If your surname is Chua and practice Chinese culture exclusively, hang Chinese ornaments extensively, speak Hokkien or Chinese dialect like a native, tough luck, either you pay a bribe or go to the " re-education centers". Something like this... en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legislation_on_Chinese_Indonesians
Would have to disagree here. Attempts to make sure that minorities are able to fully integrate are one thing. However if their legal citizens there's no basis for doing this by force, let alone if its being forced into concentration camps or enslaved as being mentioned here. 'Re-education camps' can cover a range of activities but none of them are likely to be either moral or good for the victims.
I would agree on this one, though by this point you might also see racial conflicts between Filipinos and Chinese in their respective diasporas overseas, which would make it difficult for Western governments to cope with it. Indeed. Maybe many will end up forming guerrilla bands of their own or join the NPAs. But even the NPAs distrust the Chinese-Filipinos. True, and you could even see TTL’s Duterte courting them as well. |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 11, 2021 4:00:19 GMT
OMAKE FOUR: Baseball, Football and Hockey
1989 Major League Baseball Playoffs
American League Championship Series:Toronto Blue Jays (89-73) vs Kansas City Royals (93-69)
Game 1: Kansas City 4-2 Toronto Game 2: Kansas City 2-3 Toronto Game 3: Toronto 5-1 Kansas City Game 4: Toronto 0-3 Kansas City Game 5: Toronto 3-1 Kansas City Game 6: Kansas City 4-5 Toronto (10 innings) National League Championship Series:
Chicago Cubs (95-67) vs San Diego Padres (91-71)
Game 1: Chicago Cubs 2-3 San Diego Game 2: Chicago Cubs 1-6 San Diego Game 3: San Diego 4-0 Chicago Cubs Game 4: San Diego 3-4 Chicago Cubs (11 innings) Game 5: San Diego 4-3 Chicago Cubs (12 innings) 1989 World Series:Toronto Blue Jays (89-73) vs San Diego Padres (91-71)
Game 1: San Diego 4-2 Toronto Game 2: San Diego 3-2 Toronto Game 3: Toronto 5-3 San Diego* Game 4: Toronto 6-1 San Diego* Game 5: Toronto 1-2 San Diego (13 innings)* Game 6: San Diego 4-5 Toronto (10 innings)* Game 7: San Diego 3-1 Toronto* *Rescheduled for October 26, 1989 onwards due to the Loma Prieta Earthquake---
MIRACLE OF SOUTH CALIFORNIA ARISES! PADRES STUN BLUE JAYS AS THEY WIN FIRST WORLD SERIES TITLE IN FRANCHISE HISTORY
The San Diego Union-Tribune
October 31, 1989
San Diego, CALIFORNIA – In what was the epic thrilling conclusion to the unexpected World Series, the San Diego Padres had managed to win their first World Series title in their franchise history, and the first time that the World Series title has gone to California-based teams twice, with the 1988 World Series being won by the Padres’ main rival in the National League West, the Los Angeles Dodgers. The game winning pitch made by Padres pitcher Andy Benes had struck out Blue Jays Outfielder Rob Ducey, who was up as a batter. The final call for the strikeout had caused the entire audience of Jack Murphy Stadium to erupt in celebrations as the Padres made history. “This will go down in our history books as the first team to defeat the heavily favored Toronto Blue Jays in the history of MLB,” says Infielder Gary Green, after being asked about this historic win. “The Jays have fought hard, but we proved to them that being the heavy favorites do not mean anything to us. We came out here to play, and we came out here to win.” With the Padres winning the World Series, they now join the Giants, Dodgers and the Oakland Athletics as the California based teams that won at least one or more World Series titles, leaving the California Angels as the only remaining California-based team to never win a single World Series title. In contrast, the disappointing season for the Blue Jays has encouraged its NL rival in the Montreal Expos to start making some drastic moves to shake up their roster for the upcoming baseball season next year. Expos fans may not rejoice at the defeat that their cross-province rival had endured but insists that next year it will be a different season. In addition, the 1989 World Series was tragically known for its delay of the series due to the Loma Prieta Earthquake that struck the San Francisco Bay area, where over 382 people were killed, and over 5,739 people were injured. In commemoration of the earthquake that killed and injured many of its victims, the World Series was put on hold until October 26th, with both the players from the Toronto Blue Jays and San Diego Padres offering to donate over 45% of their salary to help with the relief efforts. The sports world was even more affected by the earthquake when it was reported that San Francisco 49ers Wide Receiver Jerry Rice, and San Francisco Giants Infielder/Outfielder Greg Litton, were among the people who were killed in the earthquake. As a result, a special black version of the Blue Jays and Padres jerseys, with Greg Litton's name, birth and death years placed on the shoulder area. Likewise, the NFL would also release a commemorative jersey with Jerry Rice's name, birth and death years on its shoulder. Andy Benes makes a pitch against the Blue Jays in San Diego's final game of the World Series. The Padres won their first World Series title, 4 games to 3 with a 3-1 score.--- 1990 FIFA World Cup Qualified Teams
AFC: Korea Republic, China
CAF: Egypt, Cameroon
CONMEBOL: Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia
CONCACAF: Costa Rica, United States
UEFA: Spain (Group 1), Soviet Union (Group 2), Denmark (Group 3), Belgium (Group 4), France (Group 5), England (Group 6), Netherlands (Group 7), Italy (HOST), Romania (Group 2/Runner Up), Austria (Group 3/Runner Up), Poland (Group 4/Runner Up), Yugoslavia (Group 5/Runner Up), Scotland (Group 6/Runner up), West Germany (World Champs)
Seeds:
Italy (1st)
Argentina (2nd)
Brazil (3rd)
West Germany (4th)
Belgium (5th)
England (6th)
Pot #1:
Cameroon
Costa Rica
Egypt
Korea Republic
United States
Colombia
Pot #2:
Yugoslavia
China
Uruguay
Poland
Spain
Romania
Pot #3:
Scotland
France
Austria
Denmark
Soviet Union
Netherlands
Group A: Italy, Colombia, Yugoslavia, Austria
Group B: Brazil, Korea Republic, Romania, Scotland
Group C: Belgium, Costa Rica, Spain, France
Group D: West Germany, United States, Uruguay, Denmark
Group E: England, Cameroon, China, Netherlands
Group F: Argentina, Egypt, Poland, Soviet Union
Group A: Italy, Colombia, Yugoslavia, Austria
Italy 1-1 Yugoslavia Colombia 2-0 Austria Italy 3-2 Austria Colombia 0-3 Yugoslavia Italy 2-1 Colombia Yugoslavia 1-0 Austria Group B: Brazil, Korea Republic, Romania, Scotland
Brazil 3-1 Romania Korea Republic 1-2 Scotland Brazil 4-1 Scotland Korea Republic 2-2 Romania Brazil 2-1 Korea Republic Romania 2-2 Scotland Group C: Belgium, Costa Rica, Spain, France
Belgium 2-2 Spain Costa Rica 1-4 France Belgium 1-1 France Costa Rica 0-2 Spain Belgium 2-1 Costa Rica Spain 3-3 France Group D: West Germany, United States, Uruguay, Denmark
West Germany 3-0 Uruguay United States 1-3 Denmark West Germany 1-1 Denmark United States 1-2 Uruguay West Germany 0-0 United States Uruguay 1-2 Denmark Group E: England, Cameroon, China, Netherlands
England 9-0 China Cameroon 2-2 Netherlands England 2-3 Netherlands Cameroon 3-0 China England 2-2 Cameroon China 0-6 Netherlands Group F: Argentina, Egypt, Poland, Soviet Union
Argentina 2-1 Poland Egypt 3-0 Soviet Union Argentina 5-0 Soviet Union Egypt 1-2 Poland Argentina 4-2 Egypt Poland 4-0 Soviet Union Round of 16:
France 3-1 Colombia Netherlands 2-2 (4-5 in penalties) West Germany Poland 1-1 (3-2 in penalties) Scotland Yugoslavia 1-0 Cameroon Italy 0-0 (4-3 in penalties) Belgium Denmark 4-1 Egypt Brazil 3-2 (a.e.t.) Spain Argentina 1-2 (a.e.t.) England Quarterfinals
France 2-1 (a.e.t.) West Germany Poland 2-2 (4-3 in penalties) Yugoslavia Italy 2-1 Denmark Brazil 3-2 (a.e.t.) England SemifinalsFrance 3-1 Poland Italy 1-3 Brazil Third PlacePoland 1-2 Italy FinalsFrance 1-1 (5-3 in penalties) Brazil --- “The Second Russian Civil War had a massive effect on the performance of the Soviet Union’s national football team during their final appearance at the FIFA World Cup, with the best players refusing to play for the soon to be crumbling USSR, the Soviet team had to scramble and recruit the emergency rosters from the loyalist-aligned republics. Even the Russian SFSR refused to send its players, since many of them sided with Alexander Lebed and the National Redemption Army. With the lack of international tournament experience being displayed by the Azeri, Belarusian and Central Asian players, the Soviet Union had suffered from their worst performance in an international football tournament. Ironically, the disastrous performance in the USSR’s final appearance at the FIFA World Coup would result in major improvements in the performances from the Soviet successor states, as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan would emerge as the surprising powerhouse of Central Asian football.” Danny Dyer, from “Central Asia: The Unknown Frontier of Football”.
--- KINGS LUCKED OUT WITH 4-3 REGULATION LOSS TO LEAFS IN GAME SIX THRILLER
Los Angeles Times
May 28, 1993
Los Angeles, CALIFORNIA – The save made by Toronto Maple Leafs goalie Felix Potvin on Tony Granato’s shot attempt had not only kept the Leafs’s playoff hopes alive but had resulted in one of the biggest heartbreaks for the Los Angeles Kings, as they were summarily eliminated from the playoffs, 4 games to 2. The win over the hosts had resulted in sending Toronto to the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time since 1967, the last time that the Leafs had won the Stanley Cup. Toronto’s trip to the finals and their eventual meeting with the Montreal Canadiens would also be the first time that the Stanley Cup Finals will all take place on Canadian soil since 1967, coincidentally enough, the same year that these two teams last met in the finals, with the Leafs winning it.
“I’m excited for the match up with Montreal, and it will also be interesting to see how it plays out,” Doug Gilmour comments after being asked about the upcoming Finals match with the Canadiens. “We are reviving the old rivalry once again.”
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stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,836 
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Post by stevep on Jan 11, 2021 9:50:50 GMT
Ouch that's another under-performance from England compared to OTL. At least we got part Argentina, but Brazil continued to be a problem for us. A France v Brazil final is another significant change from OTL with both France and Brazil doing a lot better than they did.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 11, 2021 15:34:48 GMT
Ouch that's another under-performance from England compared to OTL. At least we got part Argentina, but Brazil continued to be a problem for us. A France v Brazil final is another significant change from OTL with both France and Brazil doing a lot better than they did. You mean, got past Argentina, right? The Soviet Union in this case, has been weakened by the refusal of its Ukrainian players to play in the tournament due to the Second Russian Civil War, resulting in its worst performance to date. I could say though, that it was more of a lucky streak on the side of France and Brazil than skill, though by TTL's 1998, we will definitely see more of skill than luck. Unfortunately, we won’t see Russia, or even Ukraine compete in TTL’s World Cup until 1998, after the Second Russian Civil War ends. On the other hand, I might think about doing another retcon, regarding the Second Russian Civil War, because I am not sure how plausible it would be for Russia and Kazakhstan to become bitter enemies instead of Russia and Ukraine. Although in the Lon he run, which country could have been better off for Russia to remain friends with, Ukraine or Kazakhstan? |
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lordbyron
Warrant Officer
Posts: 235
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Post by lordbyron on Jan 11, 2021 18:29:12 GMT
Toronto Blue Jays (89-73) vs Kansas City Royals (93-69)
Game 1: Kansas City 4-2 Toronto Game 2: Kansas City 2-3 Toronto Game 3: Toronto 5-1 Kansas City Game 4: Toronto 0-3 Kansas City Game 5: Toronto 3-1 Kansas City Game 6: Kansas City 4-5 Toronto (10 innings) National League Championship Series:
Chicago Cubs (95-67) vs San Diego Padres (91-71)
Game 1: Chicago Cubs 2-3 San Diego Game 2: Chicago Cubs 1-6 San Diego Game 3: San Diego 4-0 Chicago Cubs Game 4: San Diego 3-4 Chicago Cubs (11 innings) Game 5: San Diego 4-3 Chicago Cubs (12 innings) 1989 World Series:Toronto Blue Jays (89-73) vs San Diego Padres (91-71)
Game 1: San Diego 4-2 Toronto Game 2: San Diego 3-2 Toronto Game 3: Toronto 5-3 San Diego Game 4: Toronto 6-1 San Diego Game 5: Toronto 1-2 San Diego (13 innings) Game 6: San Diego 4-5 Toronto (10 innings) Game 7: San Diego 3-1 Toronto This is interesting... One of the butterflies from this is that the death toll from the Loma Prieta earthquake will be higher because of the fact that, without the San Francisco Giants or Oakland Athletics in the World Series, the freeways in the Bay Area are going to be crowded for rush hour on October 17th, 1989... |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 11, 2021 19:52:26 GMT
Toronto Blue Jays (89-73) vs Kansas City Royals (93-69)
Game 1: Kansas City 4-2 Toronto Game 2: Kansas City 2-3 Toronto Game 3: Toronto 5-1 Kansas City Game 4: Toronto 0-3 Kansas City Game 5: Toronto 3-1 Kansas City Game 6: Kansas City 4-5 Toronto (10 innings) National League Championship Series:
Chicago Cubs (95-67) vs San Diego Padres (91-71)
Game 1: Chicago Cubs 2-3 San Diego Game 2: Chicago Cubs 1-6 San Diego Game 3: San Diego 4-0 Chicago Cubs Game 4: San Diego 3-4 Chicago Cubs (11 innings) Game 5: San Diego 4-3 Chicago Cubs (12 innings) 1989 World Series:Toronto Blue Jays (89-73) vs San Diego Padres (91-71)
Game 1: San Diego 4-2 Toronto Game 2: San Diego 3-2 Toronto Game 3: Toronto 5-3 San Diego Game 4: Toronto 6-1 San Diego Game 5: Toronto 1-2 San Diego (13 innings) Game 6: San Diego 4-5 Toronto (10 innings) Game 7: San Diego 3-1 Toronto This is interesting... One of the butterflies from this is that the death toll from the Loma Prieta earthquake will be higher because of the fact that, without the San Francisco Giants or Oakland Athletics in the World Series, the freeways in the Bay Area are going to be crowded for rush hour on October 17th, 1989... That reminds me, I might have to do a major update on natural disasters in the future. That earthquake you mentioned, plus Mount Pinatubo’s eruption will definitely be a lot worse ITTL. |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 12, 2021 5:10:24 GMT
Chapter Twenty-Three: The Wrath of Mother Nature
A/N: This chapter will feature the Spitak and Loma Prieta Earthquakes, and in another future update, I will cover the typhoons and even the 1995 Kobe Earthquake.Excerpts from “Dragon’s Roar: The Middle Kingdom After Mao”
By: Ye Fei
Zhonghua Book Company (translated into English from Mandarin)
Chapter Five: Pacification
By the time Hu Yaobang had died on April 15, 1989, the student demonstrations had begun to pick up, with many of his supporters showing up at Tiananmen Square to lay flowers in front of the makeshift memorial that was dedicated to him. He had been more attentive of our military situation in the south, close to the border with the wayward Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and so far, our troops had not attempted even one border incursion. That is back in 1987 to 1988. By that time, I insisted to Comrade General Wang that we still do not have a capable navy that is ready to take on the combined naval forces of SE Asia, which is exactly why I advised him on the construction of our naval and air assets in preparation for the complete seizure of the Nansha Islands in the sea that bears our name. Many of the Party Mandarins had focused their attention on the student protests, leaving the People’s Liberation Army in charge of military affairs regarding Vietnam. Frankly speaking, it would be nice if the military were given more autonomy in managing the military side of things.
Comrade General Wang summoned me inside the office that one normal morning on June 2 of this year, as many of his junior officers had already deployed the soldiers into Tiananmen Square to make sure that the student demonstrations do not turn into a riot. In fact, the increasing disturbances within the socialist bloc has got to do more with the frustrations that people had with the socialist system. To me, they were ungrateful. They had the basic items that are obtained under our socialist system, and here they are, behaving like spoiled capitalists. As they say in Asia, sometimes a firm hand is needed to discipline a child. The Filipino General Tadiar did it, though I must admit my complete disgust with the way he handled the protests. I would have preferred to work with Corazon Aquino than the monster he would become, because not only did I learn that her ancestors came from Fujian a long time ago, but I can reason with her, Philippine-born Chinese to Philippine-born Chinese. Unfortunately, I heard that the former President is under house arrest, with many of her children already driven into exile.
“Ah, Comrade Ye. I was expecting to see you,” Comrade Wang Dongxing told me as I entered his room. We were stationed in the city of Shenzhen, close to the British colony of Hong Kong, to help monitor the situation with the Vietnamese. “The student demonstrations are getting out of hand. We need the army to teach these idiots a lesson.”
“Comrade Wang, do we need to go down the same route as that fascist maniac who now sits in Manila? Do not forget that we as old soldiers have a duty to protect the state and the cradle of the Revolution from enemies, but at the same time we cannot turn our guns on them,” I pleaded, but Comrade Wang snorted in derision.
“I know that your visit to the Philippines must have influenced you, Comrade Ye. Do not take me for a brute when I say we need to pacify these demonstrations. Besides, it is getting out of control, and we cannot allow another distraction to take our focus away from Vietnam.” Comrade Wang, unfortunately, had a point. “These students have grown spoiled. Comrade Deng’s reforms would make us the factory that makes cheap knockoffs while a real revolutionary would create something out of nothing. Just like what that reactionary idiot who was killed by his own security chief in Hancheng, would have done. If you can create anything out of nothing, it can be done.”
I laughed lightly. “I do not think using Park Chung Hee as an example would be wise, Comrade Wang. Now, I did not come here simply to talk. You wanted me to find out how to bring our wayward Vietnamese brothers to heel?”
Comrade Wang nodded, albeit slowly. “You are right in that regard, but that is not why I summoned you. Your recommendations to the People’s Liberation Army Navy to build more surface ships is being taken into consideration. Moreover, I think we need to turn the Navy and Air Force into separate branches, apart from the Army. I also think that our new bomber fleet will be ready in two years’ time.”
“I agree. There is also the issue of the Soviet Union as well. In case they end up falling apart in a civil war, I think we need to start courting our fellow Mandarins from the Central Asian republics. They would not like the idea of living under a non-communist Russian Empire, and they certainly would welcome our intervention in their favor,” I suggested. I grabbed the map that Comrade Wang had used to show me the entire Asian continent. And pointed it at the spot where Central Asia is. “Central Asia has untold number of resources that we can use for our own development, and their position, along with our Pakistani ally’s position, could make it easier for India to bow down to us. If not, we can always prop up our Keralan comrades in the south.”
Suddenly, a knock was heard as Comrade Wang beckoned for me to open it. To my surprise, Comrade General Zhang Wannian arrived, with three soldiers acting as his entourage. They handed me a folder, which I promptly handed it over to Comrade Wang.
“I assume that you are not here just to deliver reports, eh? Comrade General Zhang, what is it so important that you had to politely interrupt my conversation with Comrade Ye?” Comrade Zhang smiled and turned to me.
“Comrade Ye, I heard about your little plan with Comrade Wang. I did not think that you had it in you to plan such an event in case Comrade Deng’s reforms end up failing,” Comrade Zhang told me. “I hate those spoiled ‘self-made millionaires’ that Comrade Deng is promoting. It reeks of capitalism.”
I nodded. “Of course, but the sad truth is that the revolutionary spirit is dying in China today. One could just dream of owning a factory and making millions of Renminbi, without the political and moral considerations behind it. However, the unfortunate truth is that the same kind of capitalist gangster mindset is needed in the rural areas, and especially in Central and Western China. Those areas need to have their living standards improved, or it will be simply the elites of the coast vs the peasants of the hinterlands.”
“Comrades.” Comrade Wang clapped his hands together and read the contents of the message. “Do you understand what is in this message?”
Comrade Zhang nodded grimly. “The PLA has started to shoot the students, because, and I quote, ‘they are being too spoiled to handle democracy, and demand freedom’. Freedom, as in the right to live like those soft Western capitalists.”
“Now do you see why we cannot tolerate any more of Comrade Deng’s reforms. They are in effect, spoiling our younger generation to think about living comfortably. I will tell you what I see in the future if Comrade Deng’s reforms continue? We will be known as the nation that cannot innovate, only imitate. We will only imitate the work of Western and Japanese nations, without any sense of improvement. We will focus so much on profits that most of our products will be derided, both within China and without, as thrashy. Of course, we need to produce things for our own people, but we have to make it original and not a cheap knock off!” Comrade Wang snapped at us all. He beckoned for both me and Comrade Zhang to look at the map. “We have an opportunity to wrest control of Central Asia from the Soviets, and to turn Afghanistan into a prosperous country, but instead, we are focused on SE Asia. If we are to become a global player in our own right, we need to think ahead. SE Asia can become our sphere of influence once again, but we also need to gain new allies. With new allies, comes new trading opportunities. With trade, we can also gain our economic power and make SE Asia become our economic colonies, as our ancestors have done. Comrade Ye, tell them what our plans are for SE Asia.”
I moved beside Comrade Zhang as his three soldiers were sent out of the office to grab some snacks for themselves, and for us.
“Thailand is already on our side, even if they do not have a communist government. Cambodia right now, is a puppet of the regional deviationist Hanoi regime, but with careful planning, we could install a regime loyal to us once again, after Vietnam has bled itself out in Cambodia. Laos is already our loyal ally, but I would advise the Politburo to turn Burma into another friendly satellite. The real trouble lies with the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia. They are harder to take control, mainly because of distance, geography, and the fact that the Overseas Chinese population there would rather side with the renegade rebels in Taipei than with us. Then, there is Singapore, which could also join us. However, like I said with our overseas compatriots, they would prefer to side with the renegade rebels.” I pointed at the map. “The real wild card is the Philippines. It is closer to us in terms of geography, but the last time I heard, the fascist maniac in Manila has already purged the local communist movement there. He is even sending left wing students to his own labor camps, or simply killing them. You will need my expertise if we end up going to war with the Philippines.”
“And what of Nansha Islands?”
“We will take them at the same time we mount a cross border invasion of Vietnam, and we will also capture Huangyan Island in an amphibious operation. However, we will also find ourselves at war with Malaysia, Brunei, and the rest of the claimants on our lands. That is why we must prepare for this eventuality too,” I told them. “I honestly hope that our gamble goes well, or we will end up uniting the world against us.”
--- Excerpts from “From Glasnost to Dissolution: The Violent Last Years of the Soviet Union”
By: Viktor Ivanenko
Molodaya Gvardiya, published 2012
Chapter Eight: Pandora’s Box
Gorbachev’s policies of glasnost and perestroika had not only backfired significantly, but it also resulted in a massacre in the Kazakh SSR. The Central Asian republics had been loyal to the government in Moscow, until this shameful display that occurred back in December of 1986 had resulted in the Central Asians’ attempt to re-assert their control over the local branches of the Communist Party. There were reports of ethnic Russians and Ukrainians moving out of the Central Asian SSRs and into the Russian SFSR and Ukrainian SSR, though I do not know if this is real. All I know is that the Soviet apparatchiks in Moscow are at odds with each other as to how to deal with the unrest in Central Asia, in addition to the Caucasus. I soon found myself being approached by one of the Soviet politicians who was a huge supporter of Gorbachev after the meeting in Moscow was done. I was not surprised to see Comrade Burbulis approach me with a hint of fear in his eyes.
“Something wrong, Comrade Burbulis?” I asked him. Burbulis frowned and nodded. “What is it now?”
Burbulis sighed again. “The fools can’t even come up with a concrete solution to solve the growing nationalist crisis within the Union. In addition to the Baltic States, Central Asia, and the Caucasus, we now have a growing nationalist movement within the Belarusian, Ukrainian SSRs and the Russian SFSR. This is not going to end well for all of us.”
“Whatever we can do now would be a bit too late. We would have to get away from here, because it might be dangerous if we remained here,” I suggested, to which Comrade Burbulis nodded. “We can go to my car, and head to the airport. We can go to Sverdlovsk and think for a while.”
“Sverdlovsk? That makes sense, especially if it is accompanied by the withdrawal of all the Soviet forces from Afghanistan. Moreover, I think we would have to meet with Comrade Konayev on what to do next, because electing a non-Kazakh to replace him was just as asinine as any ideas that Comrade Baklanov would often suggest. Anyways, I do not know why the apparatchiks suggested Baklanov as that disgraced fool Yeltsin’s replacement,” Burbulis whispered as we spotted a driver down the street. “We need to get to Sheremetyevo Airport right away.”
“Of course, Comrade.” The driver opened the door for us to enter and started to drive
***
The trip to Sverdlovsk was uneventful, if you consider having to sit in an Aeroflot flight alongside the civilians and a few returning Red Army troops that had recently returned from Afghanistan. By the time we arrived in Sverdlovsk, we saw a city during a demonstration, as the protesters there were complaining about the lack of food in the shelves. Red Army troops and local OMON forces were on a standby, though when we approached the OMON forces, one of the KGB agents had saluted to me and took us aside. We entered an empty building, only to be shifted to a small corner.
“Did anyone else follow you?” the agent asked us. We shook our heads in disagreement. “Good, because I think that Comrade Gorbachev is being set up.”
“Set up for what, exactly?” I asked back curiously, eager to find out from this agent what he wanted to say.
“Some say that his policies are unleashing nationalist sentiments within the Union, and that it is only a matter of time before the old fossils would take over for him. If you want, I can take you to Comrade Yeltsin,” the agent offered. Burbulis frowned and narrowed his eyes in suspicion.
“How do we know that you are not leading us into a trap, Comrade?” Burbulis asked angrily. “Moreover, who are you?”
“Calm down, Comrade,” the agent replied as he showed us his ID. “I am Comrade Lieutenant Colonel Smirnov, Sergei Mikhailovich. I was posted here in Sverdlovsk by the very top to keep an eye on Comrade Yeltsin. It seems that not only has he decided to not rebuild his political career, but he has taken over ownership of a nearby factory.”
I laughed lightly at the surprising tidbit of information. “So, the great disgraced former Soviet politician, is now a factory owner?”
“Not only that, but he is also thinking of taking control of several more factories and to turn them into some business venture. The man has lost his mind!” Comrade Smirnov growled. We sighed in relief, knowing that the KGB agent who met us would not turn us in. “I am also informed that recently, Comrade General Lebed has been posted here in the city after the withdrawal of the Soviet forces in Afghanistan. I am surprised that we only managed to win four battles out of several against the damned Mujahideen.”
I gasped. “Four? I thought we only won two!”
“That is the thing: we did win Hill 3234, and we also managed to successfully withdraw our forces from Afghanistan. Now the only thing left for us is to be stationed in Siberia,” Smirnov replied back. He turned to me and grabbed my shoulder. “I do not know why General Lebed was posted here. It does not make sense.”
“Believe me, I know why.” Smirnov nodded, recognizing the reason why Lebed was posted here. If he were posted in Moscow, or any of the western regions of the USSR, the apparatchiks would raise some serious hell. “I honestly think they are making a mistake. Siberia is where law and order ends, and if for some odd reason, there would be an outright revolt, it would take place here.”
--- Portions from the October 17 Scheduled Match Between the Toronto Blue Jays and the San Diego Padres at Rogers Centre
Courtesy of Major League Baseball on CBC
RUSHED TRANSCRIPT
(we see STEVE ARMITAGE and RAPLH MELLANBY on the studio)
ARMITAGE: So, we now reach Game Three of the 1989 World Series between the Toronto Blue Jays and the San Diego Padres, live from Rogers Centre. I am Steve Armitage.
MELLANBY: And I am Ralph Mellanby. We will recap the series so far. (scene switches to Game Two of the World Series in San Diego) Games One and Two were won by the Padres so far, with Dave Liper scoring the game winning run in the 7th inning back in Game Two, while in Game One, Jack Clark and Rob Nelson scored one run each, contributing to the victory in Game One.
ARMITAGE: So, what do you think Toronto must do to get back in the series, Ralph?
MELLANBY: For starters, the Padres announced that Eric Nolte will start on the mound, as Andy Benes will have a one game break after starting off in the mound in the first two games. Benes was extremely hot in the mound the last two games, and he only let the Blue Jays score a combined 4 runs in the last two games.
ARMITAGE: With a different pitcher, the Blue Jays will have a much better chance of scoring more runs, but the infielders must hustle up and stop any errors from being committed.
MELLANBY: I agree. Likewise, the Blue Jays outfielders must stay healthy during this crucial game here in Toronto.
ARMITAGE: I think Mauro Gozzo will be starting in the mound for the Jays, according to official reports. In a few minutes, we will release the official starting lineups for tonight’s game. (Sees Warning sign) Wait a minute, hold on! We are receiving reports from the San Francisco Bay area.
(WARNING SIGN)
MELLANBY: Reports? What reports?
ARMITAGE: It appears that there has been an earthquake that broke out in the Loma Prieta Peak. (pauses for five minutes) Hold on. It appears that the MLB officials are going to make an announcement.
MELLANBY: I would not be surprised if this game is canceled tonight, although I am not sure how long will it be delayed for.--- Portions from the NBC Breaking News, October 17, 1989
(RUSHED TRANSCRIPT)
BILL HANRAHAN: Good evening, America. This is Bill Hanrahan, reporting from the studio in Washington, DC. We have just received this breaking news. Earlier today, at 5:04 pm PST, in the San Francisco Bay area, a major earthquake has been reported in the vicinity of Loma Prieta Peak. We are not sure what the commotion is like along major highways in San Francisco and Oakland, but it appears that this earthquake is serious. Let us turn to our reporter, who is recording the event as we speak.
(Scene switches to the news helicopter in the sky)
DENNIS RICHMOND: Thank you for letting us speak through your channel, Bill. (camera moves to the crumbling Cypress Freeway) This is live right now! As you can see here, a lot of cars going through rush hour have been seen falling off the freeway, and some of them are crashing into the ground. Other cars that are already cut off are trying to stop themselves from falling, but the additional crashes from the incoming cars are resulting in several more cars falling off the Viaduct. (scene switches to Oakland) Can you tell us on your end, what is happening in Oakland?
ELAINE CORRAL: (points at the Amtrak station) What we are seeing right now is the train tracks being ripped by the effects of the earthquake, and 16th Street Station is also feeling the tremors right now. So far, we do not have any reports of injured persons being released yet. (pauses) We are also receiving reports that civilians are seeing the incomplete Embarcadero Freeway’s pillars crumbling, exposing themselves to the danger that is present. In addition, the incomplete Interstate 280 is also being damaged by the tremors, though the construction workers there have been evacuated out of their work site before the worst of the quake would hit it. We are switching it back to you, Bill.
(scene switches back to BILL HANRAHAN)
BILL HANRAHAN: Thank you, Elaine. We have just received confirmed official reports that segments of the Central Freeway area have suffered extensive damage, as was State Route 17, which we are now confirming its report, that it had suffered damages from the landslide that occurred. (pauses) Hold on a second. We are now receiving updated information on the Cypress Freeway damage. (gasps) It appears that there were long rows of cars that were on the lower deck of the double deck structure that have been flattened by the upper deck. Many cars that were driven in the lower deck have been squashed, so we do not yet know what the death toll will be.
Relief workers try to rescue the earthquake victims in the San Francisco-Oakland region in the aftermath of the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake. The rush hour traffic had gone horribly wrong when the earthquake's tremors had squashed the cars traveling in the lower part of the double deck, by the upper part, resulting in the double decks crashing down into the ground. President Bob Dole has offered a $9 billion reconstruction aid, as well as research and development in the future earthquake resistant building technology to the State of California, while California governor George Deukmejian has issued a state-wide State of Emergency, which includes the deployment of law enforcement and National Guard personnel into the affected areas.--- “I would like to express my condolences to the victims of the Loma Prieta Earthquake that have affected the San Francisco Bay-Oakland Area. This is a tragedy that broke out of nowhere, and as a result, we do not yet know how many people have been confirmed to have died or suffered from injury. The existing double deck structure that we have used for our highway system has revealed its fatal weakness, and as a result, we are looking into finding alternative ways to mitigate our traffic issues. The tragedy of this earthquake is the responsibility of the United States government. As of today, October 17, 1989, I will issue Executive Order No. 12695, which will suspend all active construction projects on the double-deck structure that is used for all major highways, under the title “Review of Highway Construction Projects and its Safety Concerns". Yes, every incomplete double deck highway structure will have to be demolished and replaced it with either an improved single deck structure, or to lessen our reliance on the usage of highways and start relying on rail transport once again.” President Bob Dole, on his Emergency Announcement, after the Loma Prieta Earthquake, October 17, 1989.
--- “The Loma Prieta Earthquake of October 17, 1989 had forced the US government to address the issue regarding the constructions of all double deck viaduct structures. It also forced the Dole administration to radically change their mindset on the current state of the American transportation system, starting with the highway system. Beginning on January 1, 1990, the incomplete State Route 480 and the partially completed section of Interstate 280 had to be demolished, and the Embarcadero area was opened to new development. It was in 1990 that the Dole administration had poured over $9 billion dollars in research and development of earthquake resistant building technology, which they will also do a collaborative project with the Japanese government. Japan, no stranger to earthquakes, have pioneered the earthquake resistant technology for most of its buildings, as well as its viaducts. In addition, several buildings within the San Francisco-Oakland area, have been found to be vulnerable to the effects of the earthquake, and as a result, several thousand people have been injured. The investment into the relief efforts, as well as the reconstruction of new buildings that will have to be subjected to strict standards for building codes, under another Executive Order, issued by President Dole. Under Executive Order No. 12696, titled “Building Construction Reform”, would address the vulnerability of non-earthquake resistant buildings in the entirety of the Continental United States West Coast, and even in Hawaii as well. After the 1990s and beginning in the 2000s, not a single building in the United States would fail the earthquake resistant standard test. Likewise, Canada would also follow suit, in 1995. President Dole’s $51 billion dollar investment in the massive reconstruction effort had also resulted in 18% of its military budget being slashed, meaning that while some military operations might be affected by the slight decrease in its military expenditure, especially in Nicaragua, it would not affect some of its military projects.” From “After Loma Prieta: The Massive West Coast Reconstruction Revolution of the Dole Administration.”, broadcasted on October 17, 2009, twenty years after the Loma Prieta Earthquake.
--- “Both the Soviets and Americans learned the hard way about the way they built their buildings, without any thought for how it will survive natural disasters. The Soviets had the Spitak Earthquake on December 7, 1988, and the Americans had the Loma Prieta Earthquake on October 17, 1989. The Americans sent humanitarian aid to the Soviet Union, primarily for the Armenian earthquake relief effort in 1988, and the Soviets reciprocated by sending medical aid to the United States after the Loma Prieta Earthquake. It was also during the Loma Prieta Earthquake that former Soviet politician turned business tycoon Boris Yeltsin first retooled one of his factories to produce medical equipment and supplies, as well as emergency ration kits. Though he used the profits from the sales of medical equipment and supplies for re-investment into his later business ventures, he also donated the other half of his profits into the reconstruction efforts in Armenia. In fact, both Yeltsin and future Russian President Gennady Burbulis, as well as Alexander Lebed, who commanded the famous 106th Guards Airborne Division, went to Armenia in the largest rescue mission of the Armenian Earthquake victims. Though most of the earthquake victims had died by the time the 106th Guards Airborne Division arrived in Spitak, an additional 274 VDV personnel also died in the line of duty. To this day, Lebed, Burbulis, and Yeltsin were known as Armenia’s Guardian Knights for volunteering in the earthquake relief effort. Likewise, 12,000 American troops who were battling the Sadinista regime in Nicaragua had to withdraw back to the United States to participate in the Loma Prieta relief effort. One of the officers who participated in the California earthquake relief effort was future Defense Secretary Paul Van Riper, whose command of the 4th Marines had also been in Nicaragua when the earthquake happened. In addition to Van Riper, future governor of California Michael Huffington was also at Oakland, helping with the clean up efforts, and future US Senator for California Carly Fiorina, who volunteered as a medical aid attendant in San Francisco. Sadly, as was the case with the 274 VDV personnel who died while rescuing the Armenian earthquake victims in Spitak, 362 Marines would die in the rescue effort.
In the beginning of the mid 1990s, both the United States and the new Russian Federation approached Japan with a request for their assistance in developing the latest cutting edge earthquake resistant building technology. At the time, Japan was already sending humanitarian workers to the Philippines in the aftermath of the Chinese aerial bombing campaign because of the Spratly Islands conflict, and a huge urban reorganization project had already gone underway in the Philippines. Japanese construction companies and earthquake resistance technology experts had sent some of their personnel to the two nations to share their earthquake resistance technology with them. Moreover, President Jackson of the US and President Burbulis of Russia has also requested MagLev technology for their rail project, with the French also pitching in the effort. The harsh lessons that both America and Russia learned from their earthquake disaster was such that the Reconstruction Revolution of the 1990s would begin, with the international ban on the construction of the double deck viaduct structures, due to their safety concerns.” Excerpts from “After Spitak and Loma Prieta: The Russo-American Earthquake Diplomacy and its Aftermath”, by PBS Documentaries.
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stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,836
Likes: 13,225
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Post by stevep on Jan 12, 2021 11:46:24 GMT
It sounds like we might have a reverse of roles here. China is going down a neo-Maoist route with military expansion and open repression of any dissent rather than seeking to boost the economy and the welfare of the population. That suggests its going to end up a lot weaker economically and probably socially because people are far poorer. That line about "revolutionaries who make something from nothing" is a recipe for disaster.
On the other hand, while it's going to suffer a very bad civil war it sounds like Russia could end up with a stronger economy and less corruption and xenophobia. Although given the west [or is it just the US?] reluctance to recognise the rebels that is going to make them mistrustful of the west.
Interesting that both US and Russia are looking at both better earthquake protection in buildings and infrastructure and also mag-lev railways.
Steve
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 12, 2021 15:05:59 GMT
It sounds like we might have a reverse of roles here. China is going down a neo-Maoist route with military expansion and open repression of any dissent rather than seeking to boost the economy and the welfare of the population. That suggests its going to end up a lot weaker economically and probably socially because people are far poorer. That line about "revolutionaries who make something from nothing" is a recipe for disaster.
On the other hand, while it's going to suffer a very bad civil war it sounds like Russia could end up with a stronger economy and less corruption and xenophobia. Although given the west [or is it just the US?] reluctance to recognise the rebels that is going to make them mistrustful of the west.
Interesting that both US and Russia are looking at both better earthquake protection in buildings and infrastructure and also mag-lev railways.
Steve
It was basically Wang Dongxing of TTL predicting OTL’s scenario for China’s economic reform, although they would certainly not try to make something out of nothing. And both the US and Russia had to radically change their approach to their methods of construction, especially commercial buildings and infrastructure because of practical reasons. Heck, you might even see the US embrace green technology a hell lot sooner. China may be a bit economically weaker than OTL, but it’s flirtation with Central Asia would play a role in an earlier implementation of what is basically OTL Belt and Road initiative. |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 13, 2021 5:26:48 GMT
Chapter Twenty-Four: Reality Knocks Like a Thunderbolt
UN IMPOSES LIMITED SANCTIONS, ARMS EMBARGO ON PHILIPPINES FOR INCREASED REPORTS OF HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS UNDER TADIAR REGIME
Sydney Herald
March 22, 1990
New York City, UNITED STATES OF AMERICA – The United Nations today in the General Assembly meeting has imposed limited sanctions on the Philippines for numerous human rights violations committed by the Tadiar regime. The sanctions were originally going to be a total economic one, but the United States threatened to use its veto powers unless the sanctions would be limited. However, both the General Assembly and the Security Council agreed to impose a total arms embargo on the Philippines unless the Tadiar regime releases the former President, Corazon Aquino, and her children, into UN custody. Although Brigadier General Artemio Tadiar has agreed to release Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino and his siblings into UN custody, from which they would be allowed to file for political asylum, Tadiar’s refusal to release the former President would result in additional sanctions being imposed on the Philippines.
“We in the international community welcome the sanctions imposed on the Philippines, though we are disappointed in our American partners for their insistence on going easy on them. This is basically rewarding the fascist junta in Manila for their bad behavior,” Chinese Permanent Representative to the UN Li Luye commented. “However, the arms embargo was something that the Security Council has agreed on unanimously.”
The total arms embargo imposed on the Philippines would prevent the Tadiar regime from purchasing additional weapons and equipment for its armed forces, and thus the embargo would be in its place until the Security Council would lift it after they impose several conditions for the Tadiar regime to comply with. However, the American Permanent Representative to the UN had criticized the arms embargo after it was officially imposed on the Philippines.
“The Philippine government still has two major conflicts that it needs to resolve, and an arms embargo would not only make it difficult, but impossible for Brigadier General Tadiar to suppress and defeat the twin threats of the communist and Islamist insurgencies in the country,” Thomas Pickering, United States Ambassador to the UN, commented. “Although the Dole administration is serious about forcing the Tadiar regime to comply with international law, the fact that it is Red China who was the one that proposed this arms embargo can only mean that they have an ulterior motive for weakening one of our remaining allies in SE Asia.”
The Armed Forces of the Philippines had in its current arsenal, several recently acquired M551 Sheridan tanks obtained from the United States that was originally supposed to be used by government loyalist forces during the Philippine Civil War but had been delivered to the Tadiar-led junta by accident. Still, the Chinese government accuses the Dole administration of turning a blind eye on the sudden loss of cargo that had been sent to the wrong recipient. In addition, it has also requisitioned several hundred Type 53 and Type 81 assault rifles captured from the New People’s Army, whose original owners had been sent to the newly established internment camps that were built by the Engineering Brigades of the AFP. However, before the official imposition of the arms embargo on the Philippines, numerous reports from the exiled Filipino politicians who applied for political asylum revealed that the Tadiar regime had also acquired 200 FIM-43 Redeye MANPAD surface to air missile system, and 20 MIM-23 Hawk surface to air missiles, through contacts with the Central Intelligence Agency.
---
Portions from the Sky News Interview with Former Russian President Gennady Burbulis
Sky News Australia Interview, May 12, 2008
Discussing the Failed Burbulis-Konayev Agreement
Interviewer: You recall that back in 1998, a few years after the Second Russian Civil War had ended, that the biggest mistake that both you and Dinmukhamed Konayev made was not agreeing to the proposal that would have allowed the Kazakh SSR to remain as part of a non-communist Russian state, and the same kind of agreement that was proposed to Absamat Masaliyev that would have allowed the Kyrgyz SSR to remain with the non-communist Russian state, which was also rejected. Can you please explain to us what that meant?
Burbulis: Certainly. My proposal with both Mr. Konayev and Mr. Masaliyev would have allowed Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan to remain as part of Russia, though as Autonomous Republics. At that time, I went on a tour around the Russian SFSR, talking to ordinary Russians about the problems they faced. I also negotiated with the ASSRs on what their future would be like, especially the Chechens, who suffered the most from Stalin’s deportations. I had to make amends with the ethnic groups that were most affected by the deportations in 1944, and I did it through the proposal for the establishment of an Autonomous Federal Republic of the North Caucasus, but that was rejected in favor of autonomy for the ethnic groups of the North Caucasus. I had to thread carefully, because we became aware of the Mujahideen’s potential to create chaos in the North Caucasus.
Interviewer: Yet the rejection of the proposal led to one of the most vicious theaters of the Second Russian Civil War, and the first time in modern history that the entirety of Central Asia had become a major warzone. We saw cities like Almaty, Astana, Bishkek, even Samarqand and Tashkent, for that matter, become killing grounds between the Soviet loyalists, pro-independence fighters and those who wanted to side with Alexander Lebed.
Burbulis: Can I also add something, please?
Interviewer: Of course, Mr. President.
Burbulis: Former president, ma’am. (pauses) The conflict in Central Asia had not only attracted the same Mujahideen forces that we fought in Afghanistan, but it also led to the Chinese intervention in what is essentially our territory. We managed to foil a potential Chinese military intervention in the Russian Far East when General Leonid Khabarov had mobilized the Far Eastern Military District to the border with China and openly declared his support for General Lebed. This combined with General Viktor Dubynin’s declaration of his support for Lebed in 1992, only after the Northern Forces Group were withdrawn from the former East Germany and Poland and were sent into Chernobyl, Ukraine, that the Civil War had began to turn in Lebed’s favor. It was only a matter of time before Moscow was captured, which General Dubynin’s troops managed to accomplish on May 9, 1993, after heavy fighting in the streets of Moscow. It took that long because he had to secure Belarus and Ukraine, with the agreement made with Ukrainian General Viktor Lazarenko and Belarusian General Anatoly Kostenko on their cooperation and collaboration in defeating the Soviet Army and liberating both Belarus and Ukraine from the communists.
Interviewer: Would the collaboration between the National Redemption Army and their counterparts in the Free Ukrainian Army and the Belarusian National Salvation Army also extended to Igor Giorgadze and his forces in what would become the Federal Republic of Georgia?
Burbulis: Yes, although it took a lot longer to obtain Georgian cooperation, especially when the issue of the Ossetian minority in Georgia was raised by Giorgadze. I traveled to Tbilisi in August of 1993, to talk to both Giorgadze and Zviad Gamsakhurdia about Abkhazia and South Ossetia. We agreed that in exchange for Russian recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as officially part of Georgia, and recognition of Georgia’s independence, the Georgian Federal Republic would side against the Soviet government.
Interviewer: I see. Let us talk about your presence in Armenia. Back then, your participation in the relief efforts during the aftermath of the Spitak Earthquake was something that many Armenians had been grateful and thankful for, and yet right now the Armenian government is moving a bit closer towards Beijing instead of Moscow or Washington. How did Armenia go from being a faithful pro-Russian ally to a pro-Chinese one?
Burbulis: It was our inability to stop the conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that resulted in the same Armenians who not long ago, saw myself, General Lebed, and Boris Yeltsin as saviors, became skeptical. In addition, not only we had Russian nationalists who were fighting on the Armenian side, but Serbian nationalist mercenaries who came to Russia from Yugoslavia because of Veljko Kadijevic’s brutal crackdown on the resurgent Serbian nationalist movement. We had to persuade Generals Lebed and Dubynin to separate Vuk Draskovic from his followers when they were sent to Armenia.
Interviewer: The presence of Vuk Draskovic was problematic, since his so-called ‘Chetnik Detachments’, had not only participated in the ethnic cleansing of Azeri villages in the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but had joined the Armenians in the mass expulsion of 200,000 Azeris from the territories that the Armenian fedayi called Artsakh, and from southern Nakhichevan. The planned expulsion of Azeri civilians from the rest of Nakhichevan had nearly resulted in a Turkish intervention, and it was only thanks to UN peacekeepers who were deployed as part of the UNAACP mission in Nagorno-Karabakh. Did you think that you failed the peoples of the South Caucasus when you failed to stop the mass expulsions?
Burbulis: We did initially fail, but at the time, a few of our troops were stationed in the North Caucasus, bordering Azerbaijan, and inside Georgia, with Gamsakhurdia’s permission, though the Russian forces in Georgia were there to stop Turkey from marching in just in case. Sadly, the UN peacekeepers stood by as Azeri forces eventually expelled 300,000 Armenians from their liberated portion of ‘Artsakh’ and back into Armenia proper. It was also a good thing that our forces in Georgia were stationed close to the borders with Turkey and Armenia, or the Turks would have simply marched into Armenia and eliminated it entirely.
Interviewer: The Turkish government denied Armenian claims that they had a contingency plan for a military invasion of Armenia, and the only so-called official plan for a military intervention against Armenia proper was from Azerbaijan. What was your government’s official policy towards Turkey if I may ask?
Burbulis: Officially, we did not form any policy that would allow us to have normal relations with the Ankara government, but after 1997, when both our governments sent ambassadors to the UN that diplomatic relations with Turkey was established. However, the funny thing about the Civil War we had in Russia was that it was Iraq, who first recognized our provisional government as the legitimate government that represented Russia, and this was after the Soviet government refused to endorse Saddam Hussein’s plan for the invasion of Kuwait, mainly because they did not want to antagonize the Americans too much. Not after the Earthquake Diplomacy which we initiated with the Americans, during the Spitak Earthquake, and a similar scenario in Loma Prieta.
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Op-Ed Piece
“Between Ukraine and Kazakhstan: Russia’s Difficult Choice of Best Friend”
By: Chavdar Kaloyanov
Published on September 16, 2010
The Burbulis-Konayev Agreement that was rejected by the Kazakhs had resulted in Central Asia being a major warzone during the Second Russian Civil War, but few people have realized that much of Ukraine would have taken Central Asia’s place, had the Ukrainians rejected a similar agreement made between Gennady Burbulis and Ukrainian former pro-independence leader turned Russian ally Mykola Azarov, which was actually accepted in 1991, although to this day Azarov is reviled by most Ukrainian nationalists for sticking by Russia’s side during the Second Russian Civil War. Even after Burbulis became President, and the famous “We Apologize” speech he made when he visited Kiev in 1999, apologizing for the Holodomor and Russia’s recognition of the Ukrainian Famine as ‘genocide’, even authorizing a $20 billion dollar restitution to descendants of and living survivors of the Holodomor, only the most hardened anti-Russian radicals within the Ukrainian nationalist movement continued to reject Burbulis’s gesture of reconciliation (though 85% of the Ukrainian population had been thankful to Aleksander Mashenko for narrowly stopping a potential nuclear meltdown in Chernobyl). What would have happened if the Burbulis-Konayev Agreement were implemented?
First and foremost, Russia would have kept Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan and prevented the full economic colonization of Central Asia by China. That is important, especially since the two Central Asian countries who would have remained a part of Russia could also be able to project their influence into the rest of Central Asia, and even possibly be able to actively engage in the war against radical jihadists. Second, Central Asia would not have been able to keep their communist-era politicians while a liberal democrat politician rules in Moscow. Finally, Kazakhstan would have been able to avoid losing its northern and western territories to Russia because of Operation: Batyr, when most of Central Asia had expelled its remaining Russian population out of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, as well as southern Kazakhstan. However, had Russia kept Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, there would have been a bigger racial conflict between ethnic Russians and the Kazakhs and Kyrgyz peoples, since the latter two would be able to come to Russia as guest workers. Unfortunately, the retention of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan would have costed Russia Belarus and Ukraine, and if it were Nikolai Ryzhkov who emerged as post-communist Russia’s politician, he would have kept Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, but lost Ukraine and Belarus to the West. Burbulis’s focus on Belarus and Ukraine at least, kept the racial tensions to a minimum, only because Ukraine has a larger population than Kazakhstan as a whole, while Belarus has a slightly larger population than Kyrgyzstan. However, a Russia that kept Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan would have been a close friend of China, in contrast to a Russia that kept Belarus and Ukraine, which is currently a close friend, but not close ally, of the West and the United States.
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Portions from the Channel News Asia Interview with Second Russian Civil War Veteran Timofey Dutov
Channel News Asia Interview, published May 29, 2018
Recalling the Start of the Second Russian Civil War with the Sverdlovsk Mutiny
Interview: I am here today with a former Second Russian Civil War veteran, who has made it here, all the way to Singapore, for an interview. Can you tell us your name and regiment?
Dutov: Of course. I am Timofey Igorevich Dutov, and my rank during the Civil War was Staff Sergeant. I served with the 106th Guards Airborne Division, under General Alexander Lebed, and we were stationed in Sverdlovsk, before the civil war started.
Interview: How did you feel about your posting in Sverdlovsk?
Dutov: At the time of our posting, we had already withdrawn from Afghanistan in January of 1988. General Lebed was the commanding officer of our division, and he was popular with the troops. However, his posting in western Siberia must have been astonishing to all of us because we thought we were going to be posted in either southern Russia, or even in Ukraine. I guess the Soviet apparatchiks grew fearful that Lebed was going to chew them out for the defeat we suffered in Afghanistan.
Interviewer: Sverdlovsk was seen unofficially as the so-called Third Capital of Russia, after Petrograd and Moscow. Yet at the same time, Siberia still conjured the imagination of all the Soviet citizens as a place of gulags. What did you think of the city at that time?
Dutov: It was not bad, by Soviet standards. Obviously, the city has changed considerably, and given that Presidents Burbulis, Smirnov and Rogozin have paid special attention to the development of Siberia, I would say that it is much better. Living standards there have been better than say, Belarus, though Ukraine is still the best place to live.
Interviewer: OK then. So, what was your response during the demonstrations on that fateful day on June 2nd, 1990?
Dutov: I was deployed into the streets, alongside my comrades. We were armed and ready, though I was not looking forward to shooting my own people, just because they were demanding greater freedom. You must realize that the massacre in the Philippines by that general had been etched into our minds, and we certainly did not want to appear like we have gone out of control.
Interviewer: Was there a KGB minder to keep even General Lebed in line?
Dutov: (snorts) There were two minders, though one of them was Lieutenant Colonel Smirnov himself. Just before he entered politics, he retired from the FSB with the rank of Brigadier General, and he held seniority over former Prime Minister Putin. So, when the KGB minder gave the order for the troops to start aiming their rifles, we were all nervous. I was also shocked when I saw my mother among the protesters, and I started to have second thoughts about killing my own mother while in uniform.
Interviewer: How did the KGB minder reacted when General Lebed entered the scene?
Dutov: He was rather angry that General Lebed took so long to join in. Lebed reluctantly gave the order for us to aim our rifles while the OMON personnel also aimed their shotguns at the protesters. Then General Lebed’s eyes widened when he saw two children climbing a tree over Park Chkalova. He whispered to himself ‘Am I going to end up killing those two kids who climbed the trees to watch the demonstrations?’ We dithered for around 20 minutes, but the demonstrations remained peaceful.
Interviewer: I recall seeing that on live television when General Lebed did something that stunned the world.
Dutov: Yes, and what he did, would forever change the face of Russia’s history. At that time, we were also under martial law, as Oleg Baklanov led the hardliner faction in their attempts to depose Premier Gorbachev, but one of his bodyguards alerted him to the presence of the KGB agents and was shot dead for it. Gorbachev resisted, but the KGB agent who tried to shoot the other bodyguard, had accidentally shot the Premier in the lungs. The official report was that ‘Comrade Premier Gorbachev died from overextension’, but the people knew that he was shot by accident. Baklanov declared a state of emergency as the KGB started to round up every nationalist figure from all fifteen Soviet republics.
Interviewer: I see. I also seem to recall that Baklanov’s committee gave the order for Boris Yeltsin to be arrested for profiteering, who at the time, was making millions of rubles from the mass production of emergency supplies and equipment for the victims of the Spitak Earthquake, and some of his products even made it to the United States, in the aftermath of the Loma Prieta Earthquake, which caused a ruckus in the US government.
Dutov: I remember that part too, and I was also in Armenia after the earthquake. My best friend was among the 274 VDV personnel who died rescuing the poor Armenian earthquake victims.
Interviewer: I am sorry to hear that. Anyways, what was Lebed doing that stunned the world?
Dutov: He spotted a T-80 tank that was parked in the streets and walked towards it. He stood up, and told the demonstrators, “No soldier under my command will be permitted to shoot at the people!” The KGB minder who gave the order became angry. He threatened to execute Lebed if he refused to obey the order, but the General did not care. All he could think of is that he did not want to be responsible for killing two kids sitting on a tree branch. No sooner did he climbed down from the tank that he finally gave out an order. He ordered us to arrest the KGB agent who ordered us to shoot the civilians, only for that agent to be shot by Lieutenant Colonel Smirnov. He then saluted to General Lebed, took off that awful red star on his visor’s cap and saluted again. Soon after that, I started to break formation and ran to hug my mother, causing the other soldiers to break formation as well.
Interviewer: But reinforcements arrived at Sverdlovsk three hours later, with the loyalist troops coming to carry out the order of that dead KGB agent. How did General Lebed deal with them?
Dutov: General Lebed did not have to do it. The so-called loyalist soldiers had been shellshocked from the previous incident in Chelyabinsk, in what became known as the Chelyabinsk Massacre, and that happened on May 31st, 1990. The soldiers who were forced to kill the demonstrators there were under General Pavel Grachev’s command, but when the very same soldiers arrived in Sverdlovsk, Lt. Col. Smirnov bluntly told the arriving troops that they will not be ordered to shoot civilians, but to mingle with them. That really started the whole thing. In several weeks, you have mutinies throughout the Siberian part of the Russian SFSR, with Tyumen, Omsk, Tobolsk, Khabarovsk, even Vladivostok. The mutiny in Vladivostok was caused by General Leonid Khabarov.
Interviewer: The Vladivostok Mutiny was even more dangerous than the Sverdlovsk Mutiny, according to the loyalist veterans whom I spoke to a while ago. Can you verify that if it is true?
Dutov: Yes, and because Vladivostok is close to the Chinese and former North Korean borders, the first thing General Khabarov did was to order the Far Eastern Military District to mobilize for a border inspection along the Soviet border with China and the former North Korea. The Soviet Pacific Fleet on the other hand, was stuck between the pro-loyalist Admiral Feliks Gromov and the pro-Lebedite Vladimir Kuroyedov. That was some power struggle that resulted in Admiral Kuroyedov winning it, resulting in Gromov’s arrest and imprisonment.
Interviewer: If I can understand it, Admiral Kuroyedov was a close friend of General Khabarov, correct?
Dutov: Yes, and they were also friends with a reporter named Grigory Pasko, who conducted an independent investigation into Gromov’s activities, and found out that he tried to install pro-loyalist officers within the Soviet Pacific Fleet but was outmaneuvered by Admiral Kuroyedov.
Interviewer: So, in essence, Admiral Kuroyedov’s ascension as one of the major naval leaders for the emerging Russian National Renewal Movement, had been enormously beneficial.
Dutov: Yes, and it was Admiral Kuroyedov’s fleet that had started to contact the former South Korean and Japanese Navy officials, to warn them about the incoming civil war.
Interviewer: Back to your story then. The mutinies in Siberia suddenly changed the imagination of most Soviet citizens now. Is that right?
Dutov: Of course, and after the so-called Siberian Mutinies, Siberia no longer seemed to be a land of gulags. It was now the land of the free spirited and the home of the martyred heroes since there were also loyalist forces in Soviet Siberia as well. In fact, it took us almost a year from when the official start of the Civil War broke out, which was June 12, 1990, to capture all of Siberia from the Soviet loyalists.
Interviewer: Did you also fight in Central Asia as well?
Dutov: No and thank God we did not have to fight in Kazakhstan. One of my close buddies from high school fought in Kazakhstan, and he witnessed the arrival of the newly labeled ‘prikhodniks’ coming from southern Kazakhstan. However, one of my best friends was among General Dubynin’s division which came from Ukraine, and they took part in what they called the Battle of Chernobyl, which was one of the largest battles in the Second Russian Civil War. It was there that the cream of the Soviet Army had been wiped out, and the air battles were insane. It was only a matter of time before Moscow was seized.
Interviewer: Looking back from when the civil war started, how did it change your life? You are now discharged from the military, and you mentioned in an earlier conversation that you are living in Vladivostok as a regional manager for TobAZ, one of Boris Yeltsin’s prized automotive companies. How is your current job treating you?
Dutov: In many ways, working for TobAZ is just as exciting as an American working for someone like Donald Trump. I only met Mr. Yeltsin once, when he toured the newest TobAZ plant in Vladivostok, and he was happy with the business that has been booming. I was also surprised that he abstained from alcohol during the celebration of the new plant’s opening, but that is expected of someone who was expelled from the Politburo for coming into the Party meeting drunk and late.
Interviewer: (laughs) That must have been an amazing sight to see.
Dutov: Yes, and even when he was working as Minister for Reconstruction on an interim basis, he handled the job like he did with his businesses. To be honest, I liked him better when he was a businessman. He would have been a terrible politician, compared to the cold-eyed President Azarov, or the jovial President Burbulis, and now, we have Dmitry Rogozin as President.
Interviewer: And with that, I have no more questions. Thank you for the interview.
Dutov: You are welcome.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 13, 2021 11:59:32 GMT
It sounds like we might have a reverse of roles here. China is going down a neo-Maoist route with military expansion and open repression of any dissent rather than seeking to boost the economy and the welfare of the population. That suggests its going to end up a lot weaker economically and probably socially because people are far poorer. That line about "revolutionaries who make something from nothing" is a recipe for disaster.
On the other hand, while it's going to suffer a very bad civil war it sounds like Russia could end up with a stronger economy and less corruption and xenophobia. Although given the west [or is it just the US?] reluctance to recognise the rebels that is going to make them mistrustful of the west.
Interesting that both US and Russia are looking at both better earthquake protection in buildings and infrastructure and also mag-lev railways.
Steve
It was basically Wang Dongxing of TTL predicting OTL’s scenario for China’s economic reform, although they would certainly not try to make something out of nothing. And both the US and Russia had to radically change their approach to their methods of construction, especially commercial buildings and infrastructure because of practical reasons. Heck, you might even see the US embrace green technology a hell lot sooner. China may be a bit economically weaker than OTL, but it’s flirtation with Central Asia would play a role in an earlier implementation of what is basically OTL Belt and Road initiative.
Basically without the OTL reforms being implemented their going to be a hell of a lot weaker economically. Especially if their busy expanding their military and being a lot more aggressive militarily, which will both consume a lot of resources and alienate enough people that they reduce their economic position further.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 13, 2021 12:21:57 GMT
TheRomanSlayer , Interesting. I noticed that you have a reference to "former Prime Minister Putin". Doesn't Russia, even after the civil war escape that disaster?
I'm a bit surprised that Armenia is looking towards China given its probably even less likely to be able to help protect Armenia that a nearby Russia.
Steve
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 13, 2021 14:30:02 GMT
TheRomanSlayer , Interesting. I noticed that you have a reference to "former Prime Minister Putin". Doesn't Russia, even after the civil war escape that disaster?
I'm a bit surprised that Armenia is looking towards China given its probably even less likely to be able to help protect Armenia that a nearby Russia.
Steve
One of the only blemishes during TTL’s post-communist period would be Putin becoming PM, though I suspect that it may only be for a very short time. However, with someone like Burbulis in office as President, the events that led to the Ukraine conflict would be butterflied away. Unfortunately, it is replaced by the Central Asia conflict.Another side effect of the Second Russian Civil War is that different players ITTL would become the oligarchs, while the OTL oligarchs who became wealthy during OTL President Yeltsin’s reign would not rise to prominence. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 13, 2021 15:11:15 GMT
TheRomanSlayer , Interesting. I noticed that you have a reference to "former Prime Minister Putin". Doesn't Russia, even after the civil war escape that disaster?
I'm a bit surprised that Armenia is looking towards China given its probably even less likely to be able to help protect Armenia that a nearby Russia.
Steve
One of the only blemishes during TTL’s post-communist period would be Putin becoming PM, though I suspect that it may only be for a very short time. However, with someone like Burbulis in office as President, the events that led to the Ukraine conflict would be butterflied away. Unfortunately, it is replaced by the Central Asia conflict.Another side effect of the Second Russian Civil War is that different players ITTL would become the oligarchs, while the OTL oligarchs who became wealthy during OTL President Yeltsin’s reign would not rise to prominence.
The key factor with the oligarchs is probably whether their brought under control, rather than just co-opted into the government as they were under Putin. If they don't bring them under control Russia is going to be pretty divided and vulnerable to new political violence or some Putin type character undermining democracy.
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