A better Philippine Air Force in the Cold War to present day

[lordroel]

Dec 13, 2020 12:44:59 GMT gillan1220 said:

Dec 13, 2020 12:33:03 GMT lordroel said:

Some more of these guys would also not be a bad idea.

In modern times, the F-5 is obsolete even if Taiwan and South Korea still uses it. These won't last against fourth or fifth-generation fighter jets.

True but they are cheaper than them.

[gillan1220]

Dec 13, 2020 12:53:51 GMT lordroel said:

Dec 13, 2020 12:44:59 GMT gillan1220 said:

In modern times, the F-5 is obsolete even if Taiwan and South Korea still uses it. These won't last against fourth or fifth-generation fighter jets.

True but they are cheaper than them.

The PAF now aims for something cost-effective and appropriate for the era. So purchasing old F-5s is out of the question since refurbishing them would be expensive that it would come out better to get newer jets.

[TheRomanSlayer]

Having purchased the T 50 Golden Eagle from South Korea in the post Cold War era, but if the PAF didn't have that fatal crash during the Balikatan exercise in 2005, they could have still kept their fleet of F-5s until another potential replacement could have been found. 

[gillan1220]

Dec 13, 2020 19:50:28 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

Having purchased the T 50 Golden Eagle from South Korea in the post Cold War era, but if the PAF didn't have that fatal crash during the Balikatan exercise in 2005, they could have still kept their fleet of F-5s until another potential replacement could have been found. 

It would probably remain as long as 2011. That's when scrapping them began in OTL.

[TheRomanSlayer]

I honestly think that the accident in the Balikatan Exercise of 2005 had really crippled the PAF as a whole, and it only worked in favor of the NPA and the various secessionist groups in Mindanao. Realistically, by 2010 the government should have tried to come up with ideas on how to replace the F-5s. The F-14 Tomcat is also a good candidate, and IOTL it's still in Iranian service. Another good candidate would be the IAI Kfir from Israel, and given that the current Philippine government has recently bought significant types of military equipment from Israel, the Kfir wouldn't be that far off.

I wonder if anyone else would be open to make a thread about a better Philippine Army and Marine Corps from the Cold War to the Present Day, though with CAATSA being signed on August 2, 2017, wouldn't the Philippines be subjected to US sanctions since they've acquired the AKMs from Russia in October of 2017, long after CAATSA was signed?

[gillan1220]

Dec 14, 2020 3:40:47 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

I honestly think that the accident in the Balikatan Exercise of 2005 had really crippled the PAF as a whole, and it only worked in favor of the NPA and the various secessionist groups in Mindanao. Realistically, by 2010 the government should have tried to come up with ideas on how to replace the F-5s. The F-14 Tomcat is also a good candidate, and IOTL it's still in Iranian service. Another good candidate would be the IAI Kfir from Israel, and given that the current Philippine government has recently bought significant types of military equipment from Israel, the Kfir wouldn't be that far off.

I wonder if anyone else would be open to make a thread about a better Philippine Army and Marine Corps from the Cold War to the Present Day, though with CAATSA being signed on August 2, 2017, wouldn't the Philippines be subjected to US sanctions since they've acquired the AKMs from Russia in October of 2017, long after CAATSA was signed?

Balikatan 2002 was the one that caused the F-5s to be grounded. After 2005, PAF was jetless and stuck in the Cold War. The navy had tin cans while the Army was using also Cold War equipment such as old M16 rifles, V-150s, Simbas, and M113s. I'm not sure if the Tomcat was even considered. The only other country to get it was Iran under the Shah. After the fall of the Shah, the Islamic Republic seized what remained of the Tomcats and while 40 years later, it is questionable how worthy their airframes are since Northrup Grumman cannot sell spare parts to Iran. The PAF should have at least considered the Hornet at this period. In OTL, even Canada is purchasing old F/A-18s from Australia. The Kfir would have been an ideal candidate knowing that the Philippines is a regular customer of Israeli arms.

Well if you want to start that Philippine Army and Philippine Marine Corps thread, feel free to do so.

I don't think the AKMs, surplus helmets, ammunition, and the Urals would alarm the U.S. For one thing, these are just small arms and utility trucks. What really alarms the Pentagon is if the Philippines would purchase Russian SAM systems (ala Turkey purchasing the S-400). That's when CAATSA would take effect.

Source: AFP Modernization Today

[TheRomanSlayer]

I doubt that the Filipinos would suddenly start purchasing Russian anti-air missiles, let alone Tunguska anti-air weapons. Speaking of, any ideas on what kind of helicopters would have been useful for the entire Philippine military, not just the Air Force, but the Army, Navy and Marine Corps?

[gillan1220]

Dec 14, 2020 5:46:25 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

I doubt that the Filipinos would suddenly start purchasing Russian anti-air missiles, let alone Tunguska anti-air weapons. Speaking of, any ideas on what kind of helicopters would have been useful for the entire Philippine military, not just the Air Force, but the Army, Navy and Marine Corps?

Some Russian fanboys wanted the to AFP to procure the Shilkas and the Tunguskas but didn't do their research. They thought it was cool after seeing it in Arma and Battlefield 4. To be frank, Egypt does use the Shilka and their military is known to operate American, British, Chinese, French, German, Italian, and Russian equipment.

Good question about helicopters. The Philippine Army just activated their aviation wing. My guess is it would follow the U.S. Army and Marine Corps aviation. So we would likley see the use of Hueys, Bell 412s, Venoms, Chinooks, Defenders, Vipers, and Cobras to augment the soldiers and marines.

[TheRomanSlayer]

Does the US have a vehicle that utilizes anti-air defenses? I was thinking of maybe perhaps they could take the bottom chassis of an M551 Sheridan and put either anti-air missiles or anti-air CIWS style cannons like the Shilka or Tunguska. Basically the poor man’s Shilka.

[La Rouge Beret]

There was a quote by former USAF General George Kenny and I'm paraphrasing here that with an Air Force you can pay a lot of money for a losing hand. So the key would be for the Philippines to ensure that any money is well spent. With that in mind it's important that we think about the key strategic needs for the Philippine Air Force, which probably extend to protecting national sovereignty, supporting the Army & the Navy, conducting humanitarian & relief missions, and joining international efforts.

This means that we need to look at the infrastructure underpinning any purchase, land based radars, air fields & security considering the threat posed by non state actors, logistical chain etc. With that in mind the Philippines has the choice of fewer more capable aircraft versus more less capable aircraft. With the limited source of funds the decision to delay acquiring a fast jet anti air capability is understandable, however we need to have an embryonic fast jet capability remain in service longer then OTL.

There are a number of options that are available depending upon the timeframe and rationalising to a F - 5 E fleet in the 90s would be a good choice. You can then upgrade the aircraft to a similar standard with the Royal Thai Air Force and then purchase later build F - 16s around 2015 or later. Although if you can get a platform with longer legs then that would be a good decision. Considering the expense of fast jets, I would only operate the one platform (for cost & logistical purposes), which would mean that the fleet size would be around 35 aircraft. That would be maybe two front line squadrons with a single Operational conversion unit. The other two value adds to look at are Airborne Early Warning & Air to Air refueling. Developing an organic AEW - C platform is expensive, but the Swedes have a good choice & there are also duel Freight & tanking aircraft as options.

However, while fast jet capability is attractive we also need to think about the usual day to day tasking of the PAF, which would be people movement & freight, along with CAS missions supporting operations against Abu Sayaff & NPA. Which entails attack helicopters & turboprop capability.

All in all the Philippines can have a better Air Force, but it needs a clear purpose with an articulated funding strategy and must seek support / alliances / partnerships wherever possible to reduce costs.

[gillan1220]

Dec 14, 2020 6:32:35 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

Does the US have a vehicle that utilizes anti-air defenses? I was thinking of maybe perhaps they could take the bottom chassis of an M551 Sheridan and put either anti-air missiles or anti-air CIWS style cannons like the Shilka or Tunguska. Basically the poor man’s Shilka.

There is the Avenger platform and the LPWS which were one of the mobile AA systems the U.S. has invested. Since the United States has never been invaded, I would see why their armed forces do not heavily invest on mobile AA platforms unlike the Russians which has both mobile AA systems like the Shilka and the Tunguska as well as having the densest SAM systems in the world (S-300s and S-400s).

Photo: AN/TWQ-1 Avenger


Photo: Land-based Phalanx Weapon System (LPWS)


In addition there is also THAAD mobile batteries and the Patriot PAC-2.

Photo: A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptor being fired during an exercise in 2013.


Photo: Capt. Issac Gipson of Biloxi, Mississippi, stands in front of a Patriot missile battery of the 5th Bat. 52nd Regiment of Air Defense Artillery at Camp New Jersey in the Kuwaiti desert, March 17, 2003. (AP/Jean-Marc Bouju)

Dec 14, 2020 8:02:46 GMT La Rouge Beret said:

There was a quote by former USAF General George Kenny and I'm paraphrasing here that with an Air Force you can pay a lot of money for a losing hand. So the key would be for the Philippines to ensure that any money is well spent. With that in mind it's important that we think about the key strategic needs for the Philippine Air Force, which probably extend to protecting national sovereignty, supporting the Army & the Navy, conducting humanitarian & relief missions, and joining international efforts.

This means that we need to look at the infrastructure underpinning any purchase, land based radars, air fields & security considering the threat posed by non state actors, logistical chain etc. With that in mind the Philippines has the choice of fewer more capable aircraft versus more less capable aircraft. With the limited source of funds the decision to delay acquiring a fast jet anti air capability is understandable, however we need to have an embryonic fast jet capability remain in service longer then OTL.

There are a number of options that are available depending upon the timeframe and rationalising to a F - 5 E fleet in the 90s would be a good choice. You can then upgrade the aircraft to a similar standard with the Royal Thai Air Force and then purchase later build F - 16s around 2015 or later. Although if you can get a platform with longer legs then that would be a good decision. Considering the expense of fast jets, I would only operate the one platform (for cost & logistical purposes), which would mean that the fleet size would be around 35 aircraft. That would be maybe two front line squadrons with a single Operational conversion unit. The other two value adds to look at are Airborne Early Warning & Air to Air refueling. Developing an organic AEW - C platform is expensive, but the Swedes have a good choice & there are also duel Freight & tanking aircraft as options.

However, while fast jet capability is attractive we also need to think about the usual day to day tasking of the PAF, which would be people movement & freight, along with CAS missions supporting operations against Abu Sayaff & NPA. Which entails attack helicopters & turboprop capability.

All in all the Philippines can have a better Air Force, but it needs a clear purpose with an articulated funding strategy and must seek support / alliances / partnerships wherever possible to reduce costs.

The Philippines is still stuck in perpetual COIN since 1969 so that's why the PAF invested on turboprops and CAS platforms. That's why we see OV-10 Broncos, T-28 Trojans (called the Tora-Tora after the famous 1970s blockbuster), SF-260, helicopters such as the UH-1, Bell 412, AW-109, S-76, and MD-520, and recently the A-29 Super Tucano. It was because of this that jets were overlooked in addition to the economic stagnation due to the Marcos regime.

AEW-C platforms are no doubt so I would not count on the Philippines getting on an E-3, EC-135, or any other Airbus 400 AE&C. Perhaps for AWACs, the Philippine Air Force or even the Philippine Navy's air wing can get the E-2C Hawkeye. This would be cheaper since it is a turboprop.

[lordroel]

Dec 14, 2020 5:46:25 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

I doubt that the Filipinos would suddenly start purchasing Russian anti-air missiles, let alone Tunguska anti-air weapons. Speaking of, any ideas on what kind of helicopters would have been useful for the entire Philippine military, not just the Air Force, but the Army, Navy and Marine Corps?

Early buying of the Black hawk instead of OTL 2020.

 

[gillan1220]

Dec 14, 2020 16:22:59 GMT lordroel said:

Dec 14, 2020 5:46:25 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

I doubt that the Filipinos would suddenly start purchasing Russian anti-air missiles, let alone Tunguska anti-air weapons. Speaking of, any ideas on what kind of helicopters would have been useful for the entire Philippine military, not just the Air Force, but the Army, Navy and Marine Corps?

Early buying of the Black hawk instead of OTL 2020.

 

The UH-60 or their derivatives was considered by the PAF especially after its successful performance in Operation Urgent Fury. There were S-70s in the 1980s but one crashed and the other is used as a VIP transport for the President.

Even the 1993 Black Hawk Down incident in Mogadishu did not deter the Philippines from acquiring it. It was only because of the economic situation of the 1980s as well as the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis that the PAF could not get the Blackhawk.

In 2009, the PAF acquired Sokol helicopters from Poland. This was one of GMA's (2001-2010) military projects that surprisingly materialized. The years from 2005 (decomissioning of the F-5s) to 2015 (the year the FA-50s were received) was the lowest points of the AFP, specifically in the years between 2005 to 2011 where modernization was stagnant.

It was announced in 2013 under P-Noy that the PAF and PN would get the AW109 and AW159 Wildcat. It was also under P-Noy that the PAF got spare Bell 412s from Canada. It took until 2019 for this S-70i to finalize and finally only this year when it was finally in the PAF's fleet at long last.

[lordroel]

Dec 14, 2020 16:37:12 GMT gillan1220 said:

Dec 14, 2020 16:22:59 GMT lordroel said:

Early buying of the Black hawk instead of OTL 2020.

 

The UH-60 or their derivatives was considered by the PAF especially after its successful performance in Operation Urgent Fury. There were S-70s in the 1980s but one crashed and the other is used as a VIP transport for the President.

Even the 1993 Black Hawk Down incident in Mogadishu did not deter the Philippines from acquiring it. It was only because of the economic situation of the 1980s as well as the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis that the PAF could not get the Blackhawk.

In 2009, the PAF acquired Sokol helicopters from Poland. This was one of GMA's (2001-2010) military projects that surprisingly materialized. The years from 2005 (decomissioning of the F-5s) to 2015 (the year the FA-50s were received) was the lowest points of the AFP, specifically in the years between 2005 to 2011 where modernization was stagnant.

It was announced in 2013 under P-Noy that the PAF and PN would get the AW109 and AW159 Wildcat. It was also under P-Noy that the PAF got spare Bell 412s from Canada. It took until 2019 for this S-70i to finalize and finally only this year when it was finally in the PAF's fleet at long last.

So if there was a lesser 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis, could the PAF be stronger. 

[gillan1220]

Dec 14, 2020 17:25:57 GMT lordroel said:

Dec 14, 2020 16:37:12 GMT gillan1220 said:

The UH-60 or their derivatives was considered by the PAF especially after its successful performance in Operation Urgent Fury. There were S-70s in the 1980s but one crashed and the other is used as a VIP transport for the President.

Even the 1993 Black Hawk Down incident in Mogadishu did not deter the Philippines from acquiring it. It was only because of the economic situation of the 1980s as well as the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis that the PAF could not get the Blackhawk.

In 2009, the PAF acquired Sokol helicopters from Poland. This was one of GMA's (2001-2010) military projects that surprisingly materialized. The years from 2005 (decomissioning of the F-5s) to 2015 (the year the FA-50s were received) was the lowest points of the AFP, specifically in the years between 2005 to 2011 where modernization was stagnant.

It was announced in 2013 under P-Noy that the PAF and PN would get the AW109 and AW159 Wildcat. It was also under P-Noy that the PAF got spare Bell 412s from Canada. It took until 2019 for this S-70i to finalize and finally only this year when it was finally in the PAF's fleet at long last.

So if there was a lesser 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis, could the PAF be stronger. 

Yes, the PAF would have been capable especially with those Hornets which was the closest modern fighter jet especially for that time. We would have seen PAF, USMC, and USN Hornets flying side-by-side during Balikatan 2002 and the following exercises to come.