A window of opportunity 1905

[stevep]

May 26, 2021 18:45:49 GMT 575 said:

May 26, 2021 16:36:46 GMT stevep said:

   Well that's going to make for an interesting time in Germany and Europe in general. A lot would depend on who becomes the new leader of the party and both their abilities and personal views.  Also whether there is longer term tension between factions over this succession.  It could end up never emerging as a major party in Germany, even if the Depression still rather drives things as OTL.  In which case who replaces it as the leading power in the hard right and do they get any significant traction?  If not Germany could be vastly different.  It might still end up militaristic and revanchist and hence might be even more dangerous or there could be chaos and infighting and even a more powerful communists elements - although it that came close to gaining power I would expect the right wing, aided by the army and probably at least secretly by some of the democratic powers who would welcome any alternative.  [Although if there was a left wing government in Paris at the time things could get tense in such a scenario.]

  Have to see what you come up with.  We are likely to see WWII change drastically, even if it occurs at all.

Well I thought that would get You out off the chair!

Germany will still be a militarist oriented state as the Reichswehr did have some stature before Hitler. I don't see the Nazi Party getting its footing following this - Goebbels will be a voice on the fringe rallying a steady core but not really dangerous.

Expect Mussolini to keep the kettle boiling somehow on his own now he doesn't have a German rival. Which will be bad still.

Now I'm really uncertain on WWII but things may well still spill over in Europe. I'll keep working.

I ended up doing something else in doing away with the Nazis early. I already did the 1934 ATL Hitler-Musso war years ago and thought a world with Benny on his own would warrent some attention - with Weimar Germany as the Dark Horse!

  I think the key thing would probably be how France and Germany and their relationship develop.  If Germany sees some basic democracy survive then it could lead to better relations, especially with the issue of war debts and reparations removed and a decent economy in France.  If an alternative government in Germany - i.e. someone more sensible than Bruning accepts economic aid from France then relations could be very rosy.  In that case Italy would be largely isolated and facing a potential Anglo-French-German bloc/alliance if they do something stupid, which is likely to make Benny cautious.  Although if assorted groups try and overthrow the Spanish government he could well still interfere there. 

  Of course there is still continued fear about a remilitarised Germany in France, with the former's larger population and industrial base and also the issue of the relatively small German minorities in Polish territory and the bigger issue of the Polish corridor.  The issue with the Czech is probably less explosive if you don't have an hard line government in Berlin stirring up trouble as Czechoslovakia was a liberal democracy and the Germany minority doesn't seem to have been discriminated against.

  Of course the other thing you could do is have a liberal/democratic Germany and have France fall to a right wing coup.   Which would really complicate matters. 

  I'm not sure Stalin would risk a major war in Europe if the continent is dominated by a reasonably friendly - or at least none hostile to each other - bloc of powers as such a move by the despised Bolshevik regime would be a red flag - no pun intended - to just about everybody.  Its possible he might try stirring up problems in Poland, especially after Piłsudski's death and trigger some local war there, which if he didn't get too greedy could end up with the rest of Europe accepting Poland losing some of its non-Polish lands in the east.  Or ending up focusing on the Far East and helping the Kuomintang against the Japanese, possibly going to war with them himself.  Mind you with this early a set of changes its possibly, although probably unlikely by this stage, that Japan may stay dominated by liberals.

  Basically you could have any range of actions around the world.  So much is up for grabs.

[575]

May 27, 2021 13:35:59 GMT stevep said:

May 26, 2021 18:45:49 GMT 575 said:

Well I thought that would get You out off the chair!

Germany will still be a militarist oriented state as the Reichswehr did have some stature before Hitler. I don't see the Nazi Party getting its footing following this - Goebbels will be a voice on the fringe rallying a steady core but not really dangerous.

Expect Mussolini to keep the kettle boiling somehow on his own now he doesn't have a German rival. Which will be bad still.

Now I'm really uncertain on WWII but things may well still spill over in Europe. I'll keep working.

I ended up doing something else in doing away with the Nazis early. I already did the 1934 ATL Hitler-Musso war years ago and thought a world with Benny on his own would warrent some attention - with Weimar Germany as the Dark Horse!

  I think the key thing would probably be how France and Germany and their relationship develop.  If Germany sees some basic democracy survive then it could lead to better relations, especially with the issue of war debts and reparations removed and a decent economy in France.  If an alternative government in Germany - i.e. someone more sensible than Bruning accepts economic aid from France then relations could be very rosy.  In that case Italy would be largely isolated and facing a potential Anglo-French-German bloc/alliance if they do something stupid, which is likely to make Benny cautious.  Although if assorted groups try and overthrow the Spanish government he could well still interfere there. 

  Of course there is still continued fear about a remilitarised Germany in France, with the former's larger population and industrial base and also the issue of the relatively small German minorities in Polish territory and the bigger issue of the Polish corridor.  The issue with the Czech is probably less explosive if you don't have an hard line government in Berlin stirring up trouble as Czechoslovakia was a liberal democracy and the Germany minority doesn't seem to have been discriminated against.

  Of course the other thing you could do is have a liberal/democratic Germany and have France fall to a right wing coup.   Which would really complicate matters. 

  I'm not sure Stalin would risk a major war in Europe if the continent is dominated by a reasonably friendly - or at least none hostile to each other - bloc of powers as such a move by the despised Bolshevik regime would be a red flag - no pun intended - to just about everybody.  Its possible he might try stirring up problems in Poland, especially after Piłsudski's death and trigger some local war there, which if he didn't get too greedy could end up with the rest of Europe accepting Poland losing some of its non-Polish lands in the east.  Or ending up focusing on the Far East and helping the Kuomintang against the Japanese, possibly going to war with them himself.  Mind you with this early a set of changes its possibly, although probably unlikely by this stage, that Japan may stay dominated by liberals.

  Basically you could have any range of actions around the world.  So much is up for grabs.

Stevep;

Thanks for the input - I have chosen the stony part.. well I found something on Mussolinis foreign policy but I'm just now looking up Bruning. Haven't anything of his rejection of French aid - could You point me in the direction?

Problem for Germany will of course be the border with Poland and Rheineland - the second should be possible to handle. Nazi-Germany did sign a non-aggression pact with Poland 1934.

Hmm I have some reading to do.

[stevep]

May 28, 2021 10:35:13 GMT 575 said:

May 27, 2021 13:35:59 GMT stevep said:

  I think the key thing would probably be how France and Germany and their relationship develop.  If Germany sees some basic democracy survive then it could lead to better relations, especially with the issue of war debts and reparations removed and a decent economy in France.  If an alternative government in Germany - i.e. someone more sensible than Bruning accepts economic aid from France then relations could be very rosy.  In that case Italy would be largely isolated and facing a potential Anglo-French-German bloc/alliance if they do something stupid, which is likely to make Benny cautious.  Although if assorted groups try and overthrow the Spanish government he could well still interfere there. 

  Of course there is still continued fear about a remilitarised Germany in France, with the former's larger population and industrial base and also the issue of the relatively small German minorities in Polish territory and the bigger issue of the Polish corridor.  The issue with the Czech is probably less explosive if you don't have an hard line government in Berlin stirring up trouble as Czechoslovakia was a liberal democracy and the Germany minority doesn't seem to have been discriminated against.

  Of course the other thing you could do is have a liberal/democratic Germany and have France fall to a right wing coup.   Which would really complicate matters. 

  I'm not sure Stalin would risk a major war in Europe if the continent is dominated by a reasonably friendly - or at least none hostile to each other - bloc of powers as such a move by the despised Bolshevik regime would be a red flag - no pun intended - to just about everybody.  Its possible he might try stirring up problems in Poland, especially after Piłsudski's death and trigger some local war there, which if he didn't get too greedy could end up with the rest of Europe accepting Poland losing some of its non-Polish lands in the east.  Or ending up focusing on the Far East and helping the Kuomintang against the Japanese, possibly going to war with them himself.  Mind you with this early a set of changes its possibly, although probably unlikely by this stage, that Japan may stay dominated by liberals.

  Basically you could have any range of actions around the world.  So much is up for grabs.

Stevep;

Thanks for the input - I have chosen the stony part.. well I found something on Mussolinis foreign policy but I'm just now looking up Bruning. Haven't anything of his rejection of French aid - could You point me in the direction?

Problem for Germany will of course be the border with Poland and Rheineland - the second should be possible to handle. Nazi-Germany did sign a non-aggression pact with Poland 1934.

Hmm I have some reading to do.

  575,

  I've just reviewed Adam Tooze's book - The Deluge - and while I found problems with its accuracy/reliability its mentioned in there.  Also come across it elsewhere but that might well have been his more famous book, The Wages of Destruction.  He has comments on the issue on pages 493-495 but the key part is on the last.  Germany, to avoid alienating the US especially has suffered a serious tightening of economic conditions with cuts on spending and rising unemployment.  At the time as a result of its policy in the late 20's France has a fairly healthy economy and a gold reserve 2nd only to the US.  Tooze mentions

  "Early in the year, [1931] to reward Germany's conformance to the gold standard, France had been prepared to open the Paris money markets to Germany borrowing"27. Brunning rejected this and on 20-3-31 news came out that Brunning had been carrying out negotiations with Austria over a custom's union, which was in defiance of the Treaty of Versailles.  Couple with other actions, such as a large economic deal with the Soviets and a reparations payment under the Young's plan being referred by Brunning as a "tribune payment" it showed a more confrontational tone by Germany and aggravated France which had in previous years made repeated concessions to Us demands.  The shock in itself causes a major currency run in Germany itself and further deepened the crisis in the world as a whole and Germany in particular. 

  Bookmark 27 is Heyde, Das Ende page 130-44 which I presume is a German source on the issue.  Unfortunately I can't see any more detailed references in a quick look through the rest of his bibliography or by using Wiki, Google or Amazon Books!   There are a few people who fit that surname on wiki but none of them seem to fit.

  The preceding bookmark 26, which refers to the attempted customs union with Austria is "T Ferguson and P Temin 'Made in Germany: The German Currency Crisis of 1931', Research in Economic History 21 (2003) 1-53 which might be easier to find and also give some information on the broader issue.

  Basically Tooze's book talks about the failure to establish a stable world economic system in the aftermath of WWI with responsibility spread among most of the powers but largely with the US.  It refused to take or agree to any actions that would stablish the world economy but repeatedly blocked attempts by others to do so.  France [among others] had made repeatedly attempts during the 20's to establish a stable economic system and also a defensive alliance but the US had opposed every move or at other time Britain, chasing the idea of an alliance with the US which always seems to have been a mirage.

  Sorry I can't tell you any more.  Suspect Tooze has a more detailed reference to the source elsewhere but his bibliography is about 60 pages long.  There is another reference in the same chapter slightly later on but it gives no more details and I can't see it either in the rest of the chapter or several preceding ones.  There's no list of general sources separate to the bookmarks as often occurs.  Sorry I can't be of more help.

  Steve

[575]

May 28, 2021 12:12:16 GMT stevep said:

May 28, 2021 10:35:13 GMT 575 said:

Stevep;

Thanks for the input - I have chosen the stony part.. well I found something on Mussolinis foreign policy but I'm just now looking up Bruning. Haven't anything of his rejection of French aid - could You point me in the direction?

Problem for Germany will of course be the border with Poland and Rheineland - the second should be possible to handle. Nazi-Germany did sign a non-aggression pact with Poland 1934.

Hmm I have some reading to do.

  575 ,

  I've just reviewed Adam Tooze's book - The Deluge - and while I found problems with its accuracy/reliability its mentioned in there.  Also come across it elsewhere but that might well have been his more famous book, The Wages of Destruction.  He has comments on the issue on pages 493-495 but the key part is on the last.  Germany, to avoid alienating the US especially has suffered a serious tightening of economic conditions with cuts on spending and rising unemployment.  At the time as a result of its policy in the late 20's France has a fairly healthy economy and a gold reserve 2nd only to the US.  Tooze mentions

  "Early in the year, [1931] to reward Germany's conformance to the gold standard, France had been prepared to open the Paris money markets to Germany borrowing"27. Brunning rejected this and on 20-3-31 news came out that Brunning had been carrying out negotiations with Austria over a custom's union, which was in defiance of the Treaty of Versailles.  Couple with other actions, such as a large economic deal with the Soviets and a reparations payment under the Young's plan being referred by Brunning as a "tribune payment" it showed a more confrontational tone by Germany and aggravated France which had in previous years made repeated concessions to Us demands.  The shock in itself causes a major currency run in Germany itself and further deepened the crisis in the world as a whole and Germany in particular. 

  Bookmark 27 is Heyde, Das Ende page 130-44 which I presume is a German source on the issue.  Unfortunately I can't see any more detailed references in a quick look through the rest of his bibliography or by using Wiki, Google or Amazon Books!   There are a few people who fit that surname on wiki but none of them seem to fit.

  The preceding bookmark 26, which refers to the attempted customs union with Austria is "T Ferguson and P Temin 'Made in Germany: The German Currency Crisis of 1931', Research in Economic History 21 (2003) 1-53 which might be easier to find and also give some information on the broader issue.

  Basically Tooze's book talks about the failure to establish a stable world economic system in the aftermath of WWI with responsibility spread among most of the powers but largely with the US.  It refused to take or agree to any actions that would stablish the world economy but repeatedly blocked attempts by others to do so.  France [among others] had made repeatedly attempts during the 20's to establish a stable economic system and also a defensive alliance but the US had opposed every move or at other time Britain, chasing the idea of an alliance with the US which always seems to have been a mirage.

  Sorry I can't tell you any more.  Suspect Tooze has a more detailed reference to the source elsewhere but his bibliography is about 60 pages long.  There is another reference in the same chapter slightly later on but it gives no more details and I can't see it either in the rest of the chapter or several preceding ones.  There's no list of general sources separate to the bookmarks as often occurs.  Sorry I can't be of more help.

  Steve

stevep;

Thanks -I managed to find it in other references except the French plan on opening of the money market.

I did however find a somewhat cryptid passage of the French regarding the Young Plan wanted Bruning to visit Paris to confirm the French rulings Partys backbenchers that Germany was going with the plan and not apparently trying to sabotage reparations payments which the Party members was assured of. Bruning didn't want to go to Paris though.

I found Heyde's book on a German site now I just have to brush off my German!

[stevep]

May 28, 2021 12:58:56 GMT 575 said:

May 28, 2021 12:12:16 GMT stevep said:

  575 ,

  I've just reviewed Adam Tooze's book - The Deluge - and while I found problems with its accuracy/reliability its mentioned in there.  Also come across it elsewhere but that might well have been his more famous book, The Wages of Destruction.  He has comments on the issue on pages 493-495 but the key part is on the last.  Germany, to avoid alienating the US especially has suffered a serious tightening of economic conditions with cuts on spending and rising unemployment.  At the time as a result of its policy in the late 20's France has a fairly healthy economy and a gold reserve 2nd only to the US.  Tooze mentions

  "Early in the year, [1931] to reward Germany's conformance to the gold standard, France had been prepared to open the Paris money markets to Germany borrowing"27. Brunning rejected this and on 20-3-31 news came out that Brunning had been carrying out negotiations with Austria over a custom's union, which was in defiance of the Treaty of Versailles.  Couple with other actions, such as a large economic deal with the Soviets and a reparations payment under the Young's plan being referred by Brunning as a "tribune payment" it showed a more confrontational tone by Germany and aggravated France which had in previous years made repeated concessions to Us demands.  The shock in itself causes a major currency run in Germany itself and further deepened the crisis in the world as a whole and Germany in particular. 

  Bookmark 27 is Heyde, Das Ende page 130-44 which I presume is a German source on the issue.  Unfortunately I can't see any more detailed references in a quick look through the rest of his bibliography or by using Wiki, Google or Amazon Books!   There are a few people who fit that surname on wiki but none of them seem to fit.

  The preceding bookmark 26, which refers to the attempted customs union with Austria is "T Ferguson and P Temin 'Made in Germany: The German Currency Crisis of 1931', Research in Economic History 21 (2003) 1-53 which might be easier to find and also give some information on the broader issue.

  Basically Tooze's book talks about the failure to establish a stable world economic system in the aftermath of WWI with responsibility spread among most of the powers but largely with the US.  It refused to take or agree to any actions that would stablish the world economy but repeatedly blocked attempts by others to do so.  France [among others] had made repeatedly attempts during the 20's to establish a stable economic system and also a defensive alliance but the US had opposed every move or at other time Britain, chasing the idea of an alliance with the US which always seems to have been a mirage.

  Sorry I can't tell you any more.  Suspect Tooze has a more detailed reference to the source elsewhere but his bibliography is about 60 pages long.  There is another reference in the same chapter slightly later on but it gives no more details and I can't see it either in the rest of the chapter or several preceding ones.  There's no list of general sources separate to the bookmarks as often occurs.  Sorry I can't be of more help.

  Steve

stevep;

Thanks -I managed to find it in other references except the French plan on opening of the money market.

I did however find a somewhat cryptid passage of the French regarding the Young Plan wanted Bruning to visit Paris to confirm the French rulings Partys backbenchers that Germany was going with the plan and not apparently trying to sabotage reparations payments which the Party members was assured of. Bruning didn't want to go to Paris though.

I found Heyde's book on a German site now I just have to brush off my German!

  Excellent.  Would be interested in what you find out please.  [Unfortunately definitely monolingual myself so even if I could get the book it wouldn't mean much to me.]  Glad to have helped.

[575]

I've been through Heyde's pages. Seems the French proposed a Customs Union an Industrial coorporation and a short credit of 4 bill. Reichsmark. The German industry was interested in the Industrial coorporation and the Municipalities in the credit but German Foreign Office found the short credit to be too little and wanted a long which the French Government couldn't promise due to the right wing parties seeing such as "nationalizing" French Industry and Banks. Bruning couldn't on the stance of his coalition government accept the French proposal.
Following the French withdrawal from the Rhineland on 6. October 1930 140,000 Stalhelm members clad in Feldgrau (german military uniform) made a political demonstration which resounded of revisionism in France making the going for French Government even more difficult.
The French also suggested aid to the Bank of England which wasn't acceptable to the British.

As I understand the US and French had the majority of Gold Reserves - the French the second in the world and the other powers may simply have been afraid of committing their financial position to the politically unstable French! Seems a resonable fear I guess but of course tripwires anything the French may propose.
I also understand from my readings that German government - not only Bruning had to balance reparations payment and other economic expenditure shuch as shielding east German agricultural production from taxation and thus doing very little to counter rising unemployment.

Hmm, hope I get something working out of this!

[stevep]

May 28, 2021 13:35:32 GMT 575 said:

I've been through Heyde's pages. Seems the French proposed a Customs Union an Industrial coorporation and a short credit of 4 bill. Reichsmark. The German industry was interested in the Industrial coorporation and the Municipalities in the credit but German Foreign Office found the short credit to be too little and wanted a long which the French Government couldn't promise due to the right wing parties seeing such as "nationalizing" French Industry and Banks. Bruning couldn't on the stance of his coalition government accept the French proposal.
Following the French withdrawal from the Rhineland on 6. October 1930 140,000 Stalhelm members clad in Feldgrau (german military uniform) made a political demonstration which resounded of revisionism in France making the going for French Government even more difficult.
The French also suggested aid to the Bank of England which wasn't acceptable to the British.

As I understand the US and French had the majority of Gold Reserves - the French the second in the world and the other powers may simply have been afraid of committing their financial position to the politically unstable French! Seems a resonable fear I guess but of course tripwires anything the French may propose.
I also understand from my readings that German government - not only Bruning had to balance reparations payment and other economic expenditure shuch as shielding east German agricultural production from taxation and thus doing very little to counter rising unemployment.

Hmm, hope I get something working out of this!

  Many thanks.  It sounds like it might not have been just hard line posturing by Bruning as Tooze was suggesting.

[575]

1928
Madsen Rifle Works start designing an AA/AT 20mm autocannon. Basically its a scale up of the light machinegun and share many of its features. The autocannon is soon adopted throughout the Nordic countries as a dual purpose weapon with manufacturing shops set up in all four countries.

The Kellogg-Briand Pact is hotly debated among the Nordic primeministers who agree to show support for the pact but continue the military and intelligence cooperation. That Germany is friendly towards the Pact isn't consoling.
Another nation friendly to the Pact is Italy. Mussolini had since his march on Rome in 1922 sought for opportunities to distract the Italian populace from hardships at home occupying the Greek island of Corfu in 1923 following the murder of four Italian diplomats in Greece and the Greeks refusing to pay reparations. The League of Nations had insisted Greece pay reparations but also that the Italians withdraw from Corfu. The Italians had seen Mussolini's show of force a great victory.
That encouraged Mussolini to send military officials to the city of Fiume in Dalmatia which was adminstered by the League of Nations. Italy however claimed it was in unrest and had to do something about it thus sending military there as such circumstances on the borders of Italy couldn't be tolerated. Yugoslavia protested the Italian action but as its ally France was moving in to occupy the Ruhr at the moment it was a lone voice and by 1924 Italy was alotted the city as it had been promised by the Entente Powers when joining the alliance during 1915.
Mussolini then turned to the international negotiating scene and was a signatory of the Locarno Pact 1925 and now Kellogg-Briand.

The Danish – Norwegian Alliance is due to the Kellogg-Briand Pact much critizised within the Nordic countries by academicians and Communists both calling it a vehicle of aggression.
Within inter-Nordic negotiations the Alliance is still regarded as real as is the Swedish – Finn arrangements regarding the defences of Finland even if the Swedish armed forces have for several years been withdrawn from Finland. Army manouevres is a regular occurrence in the eastern part of Finland much to the relief of many Finns.
However some kind of new situation have been emerging since the initiation of staff talks by 1927 with all involved parties realizing that the alternative isn't desirable.

In Denmark the economic crisis seems to be a thing of the past with rising numbers of employed workers, boom harvest and industrial productivity.

In Weimar Germany the elections on 20. May see the reformed Nazi Party lacking Adolph Hitler back to the position of the Nationalist Social Freedom Movement which had been the partys alias as it had been outlawed follow the Beerhall Putsch of 1924. The leaders of the party had no clear line to present to the constituency except for Josef Goebbels who led the northern part along Georg Strasser. Goebbels was reckoned to be the one gaining 8 seats for the party in the Reichtag of Germany but the party was clearly on the downslope.
Slowly the leadership of the party disintegrated with the SA leader Ernst Röhm going to Bolivia as an advisor to the Army with others following their own paths. Partly due to Röhms leaving the SA this organization began to fall apart with its members generally going (back) into the Stahlhelm organization.
It had only been the third elections of the Nazi Party and its cover the Nationalist Social Freedom Movement and it would possibly soon share the fate of many of those political parties popping up all over Weimar Germany during its formative years.
The Socialdemocratic Party of Germany is the largest party and its leader Hermann Müller forms a majority coalition government which is marred by internal difficulties.
The Reichsmarine (Navy) wants to build three Panzerschiffe (heavycruisers/pocket battleships by British) but as the Rheineland is still occupied by the French the building isn't feasiable and there is political resistance to the project though in the end the building progamme is decided upon.

Stauning had during his first premiership 1924-26 used the example of Italy as the bogeyman to get other small nations join the Oslo Protocol.
This was more fact than even Stauning would know.

During 1925 the Croatians had been party to the rejection of the newly signed treaty with Italy giving privileges to Italians living in Dalmatia but now they turned upon the Yugoslav republic as a member of the Croatian Peasant Party Stjepan Radić was shot in parliament by a Serbian member. The Croatians left parliament and went to Zagreb to set up a counter Yugoslavia front which was much encouraged by Hungary which had been robbed of lands in the wake of the revolutions of WWI and in 1920 at the Treaty of Trianon had to cede large parts of its territory to its neigbours among these Yugoslavia which being the foremost member of the Little Entente would be the principal objective of Hungarys to take out.
Now Hungary urged on Italy to support the Croatians to further its own interests in the area alongside Hungary. Hungary's Minister to Italy Pal Foster explained the Croatians were serious in wanting separation from Yugoslavia but wasn't able to make a revolution themselves. The Italians were anxious not to compromise themselves to the other Europeans but interested though the Croatians wanted the territories in the area Italy itself coveted.

[stevep]

May 28, 2021 18:24:01 GMT 575 said:

1928
Madsen Rifle Works start designing an AA/AT 20mm autocannon. Basically its a scale up of the light machinegun and share many of its features. The autocannon is soon adopted throughout the Nordic countries as a dual purpose weapon with manufacturing shops set up in all four countries.

The Kellogg-Briand Pact is hotly debated among the Nordic primeministers who agree to show support for the pact but continue the military and intelligence cooperation. That Germany is friendly towards the Pact isn't consoling.
Another nation friendly to the Pact is Italy. Mussolini had since his march on Rome in 1922 sought for opportunities to distract the Italian populace from hardships at home occupying the Greek island of Corfu in 1923 following the murder of four Italian diplomats in Greece and the Greeks refusing to pay reparations. The League of Nations had insisted Greece pay reparations but also that the Italians withdraw from Corfu. The Italians had seen Mussolini's show of force a great victory.
That encouraged Mussolini to send military officials to the city of Fiume in Dalmatia which was adminstered by the League of Nations. Italy however claimed it was in unrest and had to do something about it thus sending military there as such circumstances on the borders of Italy couldn't be tolerated. Yugoslavia protested the Italian action but as its ally France was moving in to occupy the Ruhr at the moment it was a lone voice and by 1924 Italy was alotted the city as it had been promised by the Entente Powers when joining the alliance during 1915.
Mussolini then turned to the international negotiating scene and was a signatory of the Locarno Pact 1925 and now Kellogg-Briand.

The Danish – Norwegian Alliance is due to the Kellogg-Briand Pact much critizised within the Nordic countries by academicians and Communists both calling it a vehicle of aggression.
Within inter-Nordic negotiations the Alliance is still regarded as real as is the Swedish – Finn arrangements regarding the defences of Finland even if the Swedish armed forces have for several years been withdrawn from Finland. Army manouevres is a regular occurrence in the eastern part of Finland much to the relief of many Finns.
However some kind of new situation have been emerging since the initiation of staff talks by 1927 with all involved parties realizing that the alternative isn't desirable.

In Denmark the economic crisis seems to be a thing of the past with rising numbers of employed workers, boom harvest and industrial productivity.

In Weimar Germany the elections on 20. May see the reformed Nazi Party lacking Adolph Hitler back to the position of the Nationalist Social Freedom Movement which had been the partys alias as it had been outlawed follow the Beerhall Putsch of 1924. The leaders of the party had no clear line to present to the constituency except for Josef Goebbels who led the northern part along Georg Strasser. Goebbels was reckoned to be the one gaining 8 seats for the party in the Reichtag of Germany but the party was clearly on the downslope.
Slowly the leadership of the party disintegrated with the SA leader Ernst Röhm going to Bolivia as an advisor to the Army with others following their own paths. Partly due to Röhms leaving the SA this organization began to fall apart with its members generally going (back) into the Stahlhelm organization.
It had only been the third elections of the Nazi Party and its cover the Nationalist Social Freedom Movement and it would possibly soon share the fate of many of those political parties popping up all over Weimar Germany during its formative years.
The Socialdemocratic Party of Germany is the largest party and its leader Hermann Müller forms a majority coalition government which is marred by internal difficulties.
The Reichsmarine (Navy) wants to build three Panzerschiffe (heavycruisers/pocket battleships by British) but as the Rheineland is still occupied by the French the building isn't feasiable and there is political resistance to the project though in the end the building progamme is decided upon.

Stauning had during his first premiership 1924-26 used the example of Italy as the bogeyman to get other small nations join the Oslo Protocol.
This was more fact than even Stauning would know.

During 1925 the Croatians had been party to the rejection of the newly signed treaty with Italy giving privileges to Italians living in Dalmatia but now they turned upon the Yugoslav republic as a member of the Croatian Peasant Party Stjepan Radić was shot in parliament by a Serbian member. The Croatians left parliament and went to Zagreb to set up a counter Yugoslavia front which was much encouraged by Hungary which had been robbed of lands in the wake of the revolutions of WWI and in 1920 at the Treaty of Trianon had to cede large parts of its territory to its neigbours among these Yugoslavia which being the foremost member of the Little Entente would be the principal objective of Hungarys to take out.
Now Hungary urged on Italy to support the Croatians to further its own interests in the area alongside Hungary. Hungary's Minister to Italy Pal Foster explained the Croatians were serious in wanting separation from Yugoslavia but wasn't able to make a revolution themselves. The Italians were anxious not to compromise themselves to the other Europeans but interested though the Croatians wanted the territories in the area Italy itself coveted.

  Well good that the Nazis are going into the dustbin of history a lot sooner, although a lot depends on what happens in Germany if/when the recession hits.

  Sounds like Benny is getting tempted to intervene in Yugoslavia, egged in by Hungary which should give him cause to think again about it.  All three of those states want at least part of the proposed Croat state so its going to be messy even if they were to separate it from Yugoslavia.  I hadn't realised or had forgotten that Mussolini had seized control of Fiume earlier.

[575]

May 29, 2021 10:21:08 GMT stevep said:

May 28, 2021 18:24:01 GMT 575 said:

1928
Madsen Rifle Works start designing an AA/AT 20mm autocannon. Basically its a scale up of the light machinegun and share many of its features. The autocannon is soon adopted throughout the Nordic countries as a dual purpose weapon with manufacturing shops set up in all four countries.

The Kellogg-Briand Pact is hotly debated among the Nordic primeministers who agree to show support for the pact but continue the military and intelligence cooperation. That Germany is friendly towards the Pact isn't consoling.
Another nation friendly to the Pact is Italy. Mussolini had since his march on Rome in 1922 sought for opportunities to distract the Italian populace from hardships at home occupying the Greek island of Corfu in 1923 following the murder of four Italian diplomats in Greece and the Greeks refusing to pay reparations. The League of Nations had insisted Greece pay reparations but also that the Italians withdraw from Corfu. The Italians had seen Mussolini's show of force a great victory.
That encouraged Mussolini to send military officials to the city of Fiume in Dalmatia which was adminstered by the League of Nations. Italy however claimed it was in unrest and had to do something about it thus sending military there as such circumstances on the borders of Italy couldn't be tolerated. Yugoslavia protested the Italian action but as its ally France was moving in to occupy the Ruhr at the moment it was a lone voice and by 1924 Italy was alotted the city as it had been promised by the Entente Powers when joining the alliance during 1915.
Mussolini then turned to the international negotiating scene and was a signatory of the Locarno Pact 1925 and now Kellogg-Briand.

The Danish – Norwegian Alliance is due to the Kellogg-Briand Pact much critizised within the Nordic countries by academicians and Communists both calling it a vehicle of aggression.
Within inter-Nordic negotiations the Alliance is still regarded as real as is the Swedish – Finn arrangements regarding the defences of Finland even if the Swedish armed forces have for several years been withdrawn from Finland. Army manouevres is a regular occurrence in the eastern part of Finland much to the relief of many Finns.
However some kind of new situation have been emerging since the initiation of staff talks by 1927 with all involved parties realizing that the alternative isn't desirable.

In Denmark the economic crisis seems to be a thing of the past with rising numbers of employed workers, boom harvest and industrial productivity.

In Weimar Germany the elections on 20. May see the reformed Nazi Party lacking Adolph Hitler back to the position of the Nationalist Social Freedom Movement which had been the partys alias as it had been outlawed follow the Beerhall Putsch of 1924. The leaders of the party had no clear line to present to the constituency except for Josef Goebbels who led the northern part along Georg Strasser. Goebbels was reckoned to be the one gaining 8 seats for the party in the Reichtag of Germany but the party was clearly on the downslope.
Slowly the leadership of the party disintegrated with the SA leader Ernst Röhm going to Bolivia as an advisor to the Army with others following their own paths. Partly due to Röhms leaving the SA this organization began to fall apart with its members generally going (back) into the Stahlhelm organization.
It had only been the third elections of the Nazi Party and its cover the Nationalist Social Freedom Movement and it would possibly soon share the fate of many of those political parties popping up all over Weimar Germany during its formative years.
The Socialdemocratic Party of Germany is the largest party and its leader Hermann Müller forms a majority coalition government which is marred by internal difficulties.
The Reichsmarine (Navy) wants to build three Panzerschiffe (heavycruisers/pocket battleships by British) but as the Rheineland is still occupied by the French the building isn't feasiable and there is political resistance to the project though in the end the building progamme is decided upon.

Stauning had during his first premiership 1924-26 used the example of Italy as the bogeyman to get other small nations join the Oslo Protocol.
This was more fact than even Stauning would know.

During 1925 the Croatians had been party to the rejection of the newly signed treaty with Italy giving privileges to Italians living in Dalmatia but now they turned upon the Yugoslav republic as a member of the Croatian Peasant Party Stjepan Radić was shot in parliament by a Serbian member. The Croatians left parliament and went to Zagreb to set up a counter Yugoslavia front which was much encouraged by Hungary which had been robbed of lands in the wake of the revolutions of WWI and in 1920 at the Treaty of Trianon had to cede large parts of its territory to its neigbours among these Yugoslavia which being the foremost member of the Little Entente would be the principal objective of Hungarys to take out.
Now Hungary urged on Italy to support the Croatians to further its own interests in the area alongside Hungary. Hungary's Minister to Italy Pal Foster explained the Croatians were serious in wanting separation from Yugoslavia but wasn't able to make a revolution themselves. The Italians were anxious not to compromise themselves to the other Europeans but interested though the Croatians wanted the territories in the area Italy itself coveted.

  Well good that the Nazis are going into the dustbin of history a lot sooner, although a lot depends on what happens in Germany if/when the recession hits.

  Sounds like Benny is getting tempted to intervene in Yugoslavia, egged in by Hungary which should give him cause to think again about it.  All three of those states want at least part of the proposed Croat state so its going to be messy even if they were to separate it from Yugoslavia.  I hadn't realised or had forgotten that Mussolini had seized control of Fiume earlier.

Cheers stevep;

The Italian/Croat/Hungary stuff is actually OTL but serves this TL nicely.

[575]

1929
The economy is still booming.

In Denmark elections makes for the Socialdemocratic Party leader Stauning once again leading the nation. (OTL)
Stauning once again used any suitable opportunity in the League of Nations to counter Italy much to the annoyance of Mussolini.
It was of such effect that even the Times noted that the mutual enmity had left the Nordic countries that look the block of the North. His Majesty's Government certainly welcomed a local plug in the Baltic straits.

Svenska Aero AB present the Nordic Airforces with a new design of a biplane fighter named Jaktfalk/Falcon which is of interest making for a couple of evaluation aircraft for each countrys Airforce. At the end of the year orders for eleven squadrons are received at SAAB making the firm thrive – two for each Finland and Norway, three for Denmark and four for Sweden. (OTL used by Sweden, Norway and Finland)

The large order also make it possible for SAAB to develop new prototypes as well as securing license production of more powerful engines.
It wasn't just fighter aircraft that was needed but also reconnaisance and light bombers as well as torpedobombers.
Fokker delivered rather large numbers of its C-V as the standard reconnaisance and light bomber while different designs were tested out for the torpedobombers that had to carry a large payload. (OTL)

The Vickers 6-ton light tank is evaluated by a joint Nordic team. The tank is very pomising but a better is needed; mostly the aircooled engine is disappointing and the armament is too weak making it really an anti-infantry weapon. Instead initial armament is to be the Madsen 20mm autocannon with its AT-capability as well as HE is considered a good allround choice in the timeframe. (Used in the early Swedish light tanks)
A study group is set-up to make recommandations for an inter-nordic tank useable in the mountains, forests, swampy ground, arctic and agricultural lands of the North.

The New York stock exchange experience a catastrophic crash on 29. October. Gustav Stresemann German Minister of Foreign Affairs didn't live to experience this that would set back his works to court the USA for ending the Reparations Payments.

Ante Pavelic flees Yugoslavia as King Alexander turned the rule into a dictatorship to keep the state together. Pavelic founds the Ustasha movement in Italy with the goal of forming a Croatian State.
Mussolini aided the Ustasha movement with arms and this year decided against the Yugoslavian wish to prolong the 1924 Pact.
At this time Hungary however played down their engagement with Italy against Yugoslavia should the Yugoslavians be interested in joining a Hungarian alliance and thus the Little Entente falter – which didn't happen and Hungary went back to the Italians. (OTL)

France decide to build the Maginot Line to protect its border with demilitarized German Rhineland should it come to a new war. As the Versailles Treaty didn't specify military action should the Germans decide to rearm and reoccupy the Rhineland militarily and feeling abandoned by its WWI allies Britain and USA France opted for the defensive fortress line. (OTL)

At the Deutsche Werke in Kiel the first Panzerschiff is laid down to be commissioned by the beginning of 1933. (OTL)

[stevep]

  575 ,

   Well other than the closer connections between Denmark and Sweden I think most of that was OTL.  Pity Stresemann still survived as while he had a dark side he had more sense than his successors and some/much of the following disasters might have been avoided.

  If it goes as OTL in a couple of years Hoover will get an agreement in suspending both reparations and repayment of war debts but then Congress will block the deal after the Europeans have agreed and force the suspension of war debts a couple of years afterwards as its impossible to continue repayments without reparations and with the US using very high tariffs to make real trade with them largely impractical.

  Steve

[575]

Well we have to spend a little more time in OTL(almost) land before some real change.

[575]

1930
The new economic crisis hits Europe though not the Nordic countries until during the second half of the year. With both agriculture and industry booming but with customers not able to buy the goods the economy begins a downturn.
In Iceland – part of Denmark – the Icelandic Bank is reconstructed due to the financial crisis. (OTL)

An inter-Nordic Naval conference is held as part of the annual joint General Staffs meetings; the new German heavy cruiser being the main issue. The different attitudes is felt as Sweden doesn't see the ship as the threat the Danes and Norwegians does. However Sweden is willing to let Bofors deliver new guns for the Nordic warships which is deemed needed to counter the German upgrade from old pre-dreadnought Battleships.
Denmark decide to build two batches of new Torpedoboats in cooperation with Norway as their majority dates back to the turn of the Century. Sweden is still in the process of building its Navy since 1905 and have also turned to new Torpedoboats. There have been a study into building hybrid-cruisers with facilities for several hydroplanes but as Sweden is on excellent terms with the other Nordic countries such a venture is shelved due to the availabilities of airfields in the case of conflict. Instead Sweden project two new Cruisers.
At the moment as the economic crisis haven't hit the Nordic countries new Navy build programmes isn't an economic or political issue.

Germany have experienced the economic crisis since early in the year and by late March government is reorganized. By the end of the year Germany records an unemployment of 5 million workers.
Elections are called for resulting in strenghtening the Socialdemocratic Party and the Communist Party making the two gain almost half the votes and seats of the Reichtag (Parliament).
President v. Hindenburg however asks Chancellor Brüning to form Government. Trying to stabilize the German economy and evade political turmoil Chancellor Brüning rule by decree by grant of President v. Hindenburg and aquits the Reichstag to a void any vote of confidence. (OTL)

The last French troops leaves the German Rhineland 20. June. Germanys Government declare that it won't remilitarize the Rhineland in violation of the Versailles Treaty. An unsetteling moment is a demonstration on 6. October of 140,000 Stahlhelm members in the Rheineland clad in Feldgrau (German military field dress) which in France is seen as a clear sign of German Revancism.
The French Government tries to ease the economic crisis by offering aid to both Britain and Germany the second in form of a customs union industrial cooperation and a short credit of 4 bill. Reichsmark but as the French is sitting on the World second Gold Reserve both see the initiative as untenable in lieu of the political instability of France.
By and large the Germans would velcome the French initiative but Auswärtiges Amt (Foreign Office) and Chancellor Brüning rejects the propositions. (OTL)

In London a Naval Treaty is negotiated by Great Britain, USA, France, Japan and Italy; France and Italy are at odds of their being equal and this part of the treaty isn't completed until January 1931 giving France a slight edge in Submarines. (OTL)

***
Just another mainly OTL post but we are getting closer.

[575]

1931
The financial crises continue and Germany finally rejects the French economic proposals. One of these being Chancellor Brüning going to Paris to tell the French that Germany wasn't trying to get out of the Reparations Payments to save the face of the French government which was heavily critizised by its Party. Germany and Austria tries to form a customs union which the French then declare is in violation of the Versailles Treaty.
Britain leave the gold standard due to the crisis. (OTL)

In the North the economic crisis is now severe and public soupkitchens have been opened in all Nordic countries. Political discussions is all about crisis management and poor and unemployed relief. Increased defence spending like more warships is mainly countered by the Communists and left wing of the Socialdemocratic Parties but in all four countries the Socialdemocrats are firmly pro a strong defence due to experiences within the century.

One defence issue is Army mobility. Trucks are expensive so lots of infantry is given bicycles to improve mobility. Other units such as cavalry and new anti-tank units are given motorcycles with or without sidecars to move autocannon and tripod machineguns. The cavalry also begin experimenting with Armoured Cars and Light Tanks in small numbers. Trucks are mainly used to move artillery. All motorization is using local produce wherever possible – Danish and Swedish motorcycles by Nimbus, Monarch and Husqvarna; trucks by Triangel Kornbech convertible to halftracks in Denmark, Volvo and Scania in Sweden.

Triangel-Kornbech truck with mounted half-track

Weapons were also local manufacture with Denmark producing the Madsen machinegun in any caliber desired and the 20 and 23mm autocannon as well as homegrown 12cm artillery guns; Norway the Kragh-Jørgensen rifle; Sweden Carl Gustav rifle, AA-guns of 40 and 57mm, artillery of all sorts, armoured cars and light tanks; Finland the Soumi submachinegun and handguns. (OTL)
The other nations soon realized the properties of the Triangel Kornbech halftrack conversion and the system was licensed to the Swedish manufactures just as was the AA-guns and the Soumi. In the case of arms the Nordic countries were taking on some form of uniformity.

As the second Panzerschiff is to be laid down there is still serious political adversity to the build programme but the Socialdemocratic Party abstain from voting against the ship as the Communists tries to pass a referendum at the Reichstag. (OTL)

The Government still rule Germany by decree though the opposition is getting increasingly vocal; a protest directed toward the President v. Hindenburg who allows Chancellor Brüning the rule.
Chancellor Brüning tried getting an extension of the Presidents office but generally there was adversity to such a scheme most notably expressed by the leader of the German National Peoples Party Hugenberg and the Stahlhelm leader Duesterberg. (OTL)

King Alexander make an official visit to Rome to further trade with Italy but also to test the possibility of political ironing out of difficulties but both nations are staunch on their positions and nothing comes from the meeting. (OTL)