Nieuport 161 - A Stronger French Air Force in May 1940 Oct 27, 2021 14:46:41 GMT lordroel and DMZ like this
Post by stevep on Oct 27, 2021 14:46:41 GMT
Option II will likely see the French government continuing the fight from Africa. It will depend on how long it took for the German to overwhelm Allies. IMHO, the longest they hold, the more difficult will be the position of the supporters of the armistice: "you betray the men died to defend the fatherland". On the other hand, "too many blood shed"...
More troops saved with Dynamo doesn't mean really stronger defense as they lost all their equipment and have to be reorganized but existing units could have been reinforced or re-completed leading to a better combative value. More important would be the longer defense of the Dunkirk perimeter delaying the final invasion of France by more than one week, leaving time for the government and especially Paul Reynaud to foresee the fall of the mainland and to decide and prepare evacuation.
In FNA scenario, should Italy join the fight, it will be swept away from Africa before the end of the year as the total air supremacy (before LW could deploy one or two FK) will deny naval convoys to reinforce Libya and allow a kind of blietzkrieg to the Allies.
575 ,stevep ,
Bessarabia was part of the Germano-Soviet pact but was also guaranteed by France... Not sure what Stalin will do as long as France still stands. Of course he won't fear any intervention but he could prefer to wait for a clearer view of the situation before pushing his pawns. Maybe the fall of Libya will stop him or he will take advantage of the fight in North Africa to seize Bessarabia...
I have given all the elements I rely on to build this TL. There is no doubt LN 161 was far better(close to Hurricane) and easier to build than MS 406. The climb rate have been officially mesured twice and exceeded those of every other fighter of the time. The delay to put in production the close LN 40 shows that it would have been much earlier for the LN 161; at least, giving the whole OTL fighters production to the Nieuport will lead to the minimum number I gave. The proposed evolution to LN 162 is based on actual performance of the CAO.200. So, no, I don't think it is wankish (thank you for the term...)
The choice of a scenario is far from obvious as the crossing of the Meuse at Sedan was made by a few men destroying or catching in a dozen of minutes the fortifications on the river bank. But it is unlikely to happend before the night if the air bombardment is greatly disturbed as envisionned. I would say one day left to cross is more likely as 55e DI was a second class division. That doesn't mean the scenario will be the encirclement of the GA 1, there could be enought butterfly to stop Guderian before Abbeville and permit a successory counter-attack. In my opinion, we would be somewhere between II and III...
I agree, the situation is always better for the Allies as the Germans will have much more casualties and the LW will lost much more planes anyway. But I'm not sure they are unlikely to win as soon as the GA1, even not encircled, will loose a lot of equipment and will be disorganized even in scenario IV. But in this last case, the front line will probably freeze for some months and the duration of the combat plays against Germans.
Operation Barbarossa is unlikely in 1941 in scenario III and IV, I agree. And Italy will stay out of war in this case. But will attack Greece in the end on 1940 and Churchill will probably try to intervene leading to a clash in Libya if so.
You are right, L-L will happend later and France will spend a lot of gold before. But I don't think Roosevelt goes for more isolationism after hir reelection, he had concern about the German and Japanese expansion and suppremacy in Europe or Asia, and won't change his mind beause France fight on, on the contrary IMHO.
And no future for LN 161 if France falls... but in Canada? There was discussions OTL to build Breguet 695 (with Pratt & Whitney engines), the same could be done for the Nieuport with an Allison or P&W.
An other very important short term impact is Norway. OTL, the decision to withdraw from Narvik was taken on May 24. In III and IV scenarios (and maybe II), there is no need to bring back british units and Narvik will fall in the beginning of June and stay in allied hands. This will change a lot the situation for the IIIrd Reich. It will also keep Stalin more cautious having Allies at the door able to help Finnish for example.
And, of course, the whole Chinese and Pacific wars will be changed...
Just to clarify what I meant about the scenario. I no longer have the will-power to do the level of research your done here. As such if I was doing a TL where Britain did better in WWII - don't have more than a couple of dozen or so - I would be rather reluctant to have as dramatic an effect as has happened here. However your obviously done a hell of a lot of research so willing to accept its definitely possible. Hope I wasn't causing any offense as none was meant.
Ah I didn't realise that France had guarantee the Bessarabian borders - or was it all the Romanian borders? If the latter and French is still looking strong does Germany go through with pushing Romania to cede land to Hungary and Romania or delay things a bit? If they do is there any chance that Romania might fight, either against them or the Soviets a few days later? They would lose but it would mean few/no Romanian forces aiding the Germans in the east later, Romania being on the allied side [although it probably wouldn't save them from the Soviets if they enter the wider war one way or another]. It would also disrupt supplies of Romanian oil, especially if the latter were willing to trash Polesti before surrendering. No problem while Germany can import from the USSR but gives them a very short leash until Polesti is restored to full activity.
In terms of Germany winning a long war in France it would depend on the details but pretty obvious that they would lose air superiority with their heavy losses and higher British and French production. Also the Germans are going to lose a lot of equipment especially and they have a very thin diet at this point in the war given the speed of the build up and the scatter-gun approach Hitler had to production. Even if there's still a Dunkirk evacuation which means a lot of men British, French and hopefully Belgium will be out of equipment its faster to re-equip them than train new ones so the Germans are going to have to win quickly and not sure that would happen.
If Italy stays out of the war but then attacks Greece I'm not sure that Britain would offer direct military support and that Greece would accept it. They didn't initially as their dictator general Metaxas was fearful of inciting German intervention and it was only after his death that his replacement invited in British support. Even ignoring that if Britain isn't at war with Italy and France has fallen then its a big step for Churchill as it also means fighting in at least two parts of Africa while Britain is either distinctly isolated [if mainland France falls] or engaged with French in a bitter was with Germany and the latter currently seem to have the upper hand. Not to mention either way Britain is allied to France, which still have a recognised government and especially if that's still in a free Paris that's going to have a say and is likely to oppose some of Churchill's wilder ideas. If Italy has joined the war [i.e. France has fallen] and is already losing Libya and still attacks Greece then Greece will be supported as OTL.
Interesting option of production of the LN 161 in Canada. It might be decided that its logistically an unwanted complication, especially if/when the US joins the war but could make for a useful facility to maintain the type in service.
Not so sure that staying in Norway is a good idea. Yes possibly a very good defensive line could be established somewhere south of it and it would make allied trade with Sweden a lot easier. However the supply lines across the N Sea could be vulnerable. Plus the Germans are likely to gain air superiority as they would have much better airfields in southern Norway than the allies would have. It might make a difference as well events in France. If France is looking vulnerable but possibly rescue-able then the allies could decide that N Norway is less important than holding France. Plus while it would cut winter supplies of iron ore from Sweden to hold Narvik if France and its iron ore sources fall to Germany is that still as important?
Definitely some butterflies in the FE. Most noticeably if France fights on even from the colonies with the homeland occupied the Japanese occupation of FIC is going to be a very interesting issue. They can probably pressurize a government in exile to stop supplying China via that route. However if they don't occupy FIC - or especially the southern parts - they lack the bases for secure landings in Malaya and to a degree elsewhere in the DEI. Plus if Africa is cleared of Axis forces in late 1940 - possibly early 41 for Italian E Africa - that frees up a lot of forces and resources, on land, sea and air and some of which could make a hell of a difference in the Far East.
Roosevelt will definitely want to help the allies and if necessary go to war with Japan but he may find it harder if their doing better in Europe given US public opinion.
Anyway looking forward to seeing what you go with and how things develop.