French Indochina on the side of the Free French (1940)

[lordroel]

Dec 4, 2021 15:57:08 GMT ukron said:

Well, a similar AH was designed by Jacques Sapir, Frank Stora and Loïc Mahé in their "If the France had stayed in war" (roughly speaking, French gov had replied to Algeria and french colonial empire); Their exhaustive study of French and Japanese order of battle (French were reinforced by a small armored brigade and elements of AVG) led to the conclusion that Japanese/Thais would taken Indochina in two months (december 1941 to early february 1942) but French/Vietnamese defence succeeds in blocking many Japanese troops, allowing a counteroffensive of the commonwealth to free Singapore, which in their AH does not fall but is the scene of intense street fighting, exhausting the IJA troops.

Thanks for this ukron.

[stevep]

Dec 4, 2021 15:57:08 GMT ukron said:

Well, a similar AH was designed by Jacques Sapir, Frank Stora and Loïc Mahé in their "If the France had stayed in war" (roughly speaking, French gov had replied to Algeria and french colonial empire); Their exhaustive study of French and Japanese order of battle (French were reinforced by a small armored brigade and elements of AVG) led to the conclusion that Japanese/Thais would taken Indochina in two months (december 1941 to early february 1942) but French/Vietnamese defence succeeds in blocking many Japanese troops, allowing a counteroffensive of the commonwealth to free Singapore, which in their AH does not fall but is the scene of intense street fighting, exhausting the IJA troops.

  I suspect if the Japanese were denied FIC for two months their unlikely to get near Singapore, at least by coming down the Malayan peninsula as it gives a lot more time for the defenders to get their act together and also reinforcements to be sent.  Them coming from the east via the DEI might be a greater threat in that case.

  However as I've said in assorted locations in the past if the allies managed to keep Japan largely out of Malaya, W Java and hence Sumatra as well its likely to significantly shorten the war in the Far East/Pacific due to the Japanese losing access to so many resources.

  In the FFO TL what happened to the Thais?  Did they fight on either side or try and stay neutral?

[lordroel]

Dec 5, 2021 12:27:55 GMT stevep said:

  In the FFO TL what happened to the Thais?  Did they fight on either side or try and stay neutral?

DMZ might know as i have seen him on the French FFO forum i think but could be wrong.

[DMZ]

Indeed, I am member of FFO...

In FFO, French-Thai war didn't occure before March 1941 and Japan wait until August 1940 to request closure of Chinese border which is refused by French, the reasons was France is still fighting and supported by United Kingdom.

I'm not sure Thailand would risk to invade FIC but, as proposed in FFO, local incidents prompted by Japanese military advisors would have degenerated in war.

It is unclear what would have happened if FIC joined FF. Here UK is still supporting FIC but, as explained by stevep,, in the worst possible situation. Like stevep,, I see Japan making the same pressure as IOTL but Thailand would probably stay more cautious because attacking FIC is being at war with UK and Commonwealth.

First, let see when and how FIC could join FF.

IOTL, general Georges Catroux rallied De Gaulle in July 1940 in Singapore, after leaving Indochina when replaced by admiral Jean Decoux sent by Vichy. One can imagine he decides to join FF with FIC (that is unlikely to happend because other political and economical leaders was conservative and closer to Petain). So let's assume FIC falls into FF beginning of July just before arrival of Decoux. Catroux already complied with the first Japanese ultimatum by closing the border on June 20. But general De Gaulle would likely order Catroux to resist to any other demand. It will likely degenerate in military escalation not from Japanese government but at the initiative of local commanders. But such an incident would provoque US oil embargo as retaliation. The marche to war will continue as IOTL.

In FFO, Japan takes advantage of Spratly Islands to create airfields in order to support Malaysia and DEI invasion. But FIC invasion still has to be done and will delay Singapore attack enought to allow Bitish to resist. This is probably the best case possible for Japanese in this scenario.

But an other option could be the border incident resulting in real war but probably later than september as Japanese will be more cautious about UK intervention, it's too early to launch war against Western countries.

In such a case, most of FIC will be invaded within two or three months (at least Tonkin and northern Annam) but China will help French to resist near the northern border. In the south, a British reinforcement in Saigon could have refrain Japanese to go South. One can imagine sort of ceasefire on the 17th parallel... Thailand would probably seize Laos and West Cambodia.

[lordroel]

Dec 6, 2021 3:18:12 GMT DMZ said:

Indeed, I am member of FFO...

In FFO, French-Thai war didn't occure before March 1941 and Japan wait until August 1940 to request closure of Chinese border which is refused by French, the reasons was France is still fighting and supported by United Kingdom.

I'm not sure Thailand would risk to invade FIC but, as proposed in FFO, local incidents prompted by Japanese military advisors would have degenerated in war.

It is unclear what would have happened if FIC joined FF. Here UK is still supporting FIC but, as explained by stevep ,, in the worst possible situation. Like stevep ,, I see Japan making the same pressure as IOTL but Thailand would probably stay more cautious because attacking FIC is being at war with UK and Commonwealth.

First, let see when and how FIC could join FF.

IOTL, general Georges Catroux rallied De Gaulle in July 1940 in Singapore, after leaving Indochina when replaced by admiral Jean Decoux sent by Vichy. One can imagine he decides to join FF with FIC (that is unlikely to happend because other political and economical leaders was conservative and closer to Petain). So let's assume FIC falls into FF beginning of July just before arrival of Decoux. Catroux already complied with the first Japanese ultimatum by closing the border on June 20. But general De Gaulle would likely order Catroux to resist to any other demand. It will likely degenerate in military escalation not from Japanese government but at the initiative of local commanders. But such an incident would provoque US oil embargo as retaliation. The marche to war will continue as IOTL.

In FFO, Japan takes advantage of Spratly Islands to create airfields in order to support Malaysia and DEI invasion. But FIC invasion still has to be done and will delay Singapore attack enought to allow Bitish to resist. This is probably the best case possible for Japanese in this scenario.

But an other option could be the border incident resulting in real war but probably later than september as Japanese will be more cautious about UK intervention, it's too early to launch war against Western countries.

In such a case, most of FIC will be invaded within two or three months (at least Tonkin and northern Annam) but China will help French to resist near the northern border. In the south, a British reinforcement in Saigon could have refrain Japanese to go South. One can imagine sort of ceasefire on the 17th parallel... Thailand would probably seize Laos and West Cambodia.

Thanks for the responds DMZ .

[gillan1220]

I see it would make it fair game if the Free French would declare Indochina as part of the De Gaulle government. Meaning Japan would attack it on December 8, 1941.

[stevep]

Dec 6, 2021 11:22:50 GMT gillan1220 said:

I see it would make it fair game if the Free French would declare Indochina as part of the De Gaulle government. Meaning Japan would attack it on December 8, 1941.

  I think if they wait that long their going to have serious problems projecting power for an invasion of Malaya and points south.  Which could derail their entire operations in the south.  Plus that could leave Thailand in a position that keep them neutral for a while, which would further heighten problems for them.

[lordroel]

Dec 6, 2021 18:55:51 GMT stevep said:

Dec 6, 2021 11:22:50 GMT gillan1220 said:

I see it would make it fair game if the Free French would declare Indochina as part of the De Gaulle government. Meaning Japan would attack it on December 8, 1941.

  I think if they wait that long their going to have serious problems projecting power for an invasion of Malaya and points south.  Which could derail their entire operations in the south.  Plus that could leave Thailand in a position that keep them neutral for a while, which would further heighten problems for them.

Looking at the Free French Naval Forces Wikipedia page we can see:

As soon as the summer 1940, the submarines Minerve and Junon, as well as four avisos, departed from Plymouth. Towards the end of 1940, the destroyers Le Triomphant and Léopard followed. Le Triomphant sailed for New Caledonia and spent the rest of the war based there and in Australia. The ship saw action in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

So could they be based in French Indochina where they operating with the already present:

The light cruiser Lamotte-Picquet: a light cruiser built in 1923. The ship was fast but poorly armored.

The modern avisos Dumont d'Urville and Amiral Charner. Those ships were especially designed for colonial service and could embark a company of infantry. They were very lightly armed and without armor.

The older avisos Tahure and Marn.

That would help somewhat i think.

[raharris1973]

Dec 2, 2021 20:51:25 GMT lordroel said:

I was wondering, how would it look if French Indochina was on the side of the Free French in 1940 instead of going to Vichy France side.

One thing to factor in for the ability of the Free French forces to stand up and defend themselves is not just the capacity of their own and British forces in the region, but also Chinese forces in the region and their ability to cooperate across the rugged mountainous areas of southwest China, northern Indochina, and eastern Burma.

[DMZ]

Chinese had enought to do with their own front, they will only help Free French on the montaineous border area to avoid being taken in reverse. It could evolve if Catroux decide to reopen railroad to Yunnan, in this case, Chinese will have an interest to send troops but should they intervene before a Japannese invasion, it should have been a casus belli, and afterward, it won't be on time to avoid cutting railroad... At least, Catriux could discuss with Nationalists to prepare such an intervention but without good chance to succed in repelling Japannese.

[lordroel]

Dec 12, 2021 6:08:25 GMT DMZ said:

Chinese had enought to do with their own front, they will only help Free French on the montaineous border area to avoid being taken in reverse. It could evolve if Catroux decide to reopen railroad to Yunnan, in this case, Chinese will have an interest to send troops but should they intervene before a Japannese invasion, it should have been a casus belli, and afterward, it won't be on time to avoid cutting railroad... At least, Catriux could discuss with Nationalists to prepare such an intervention but without good chance to succed in repelling Japannese.

You mean have Chinese troops station at the border waiting to move into French Indochina at the moment of a Japanese invasion.

[raharris1973]

One thing about this scenario, is that I think it is rather unlikely that French Indochina, alone of the major colonies, would be a major exception in going Gaullist/Fighting French and not Vichy. In OTL it was just Chad and then Cameroon Equatorial Africa at first, places that thought they might be on the chopping block for handover to Germany. Everyplace else was Vichy. Now in France fights on, where Algeria is the new capital, all the colonies stay pro-Allied, including Indochina.

Also, even if Vichy, I wonder if the French Indochina government might have tried to take a firmer, more resistant line if its capital wasn't so close to Japanese occupied China in Hanoi. Perhaps they would have felt less pressured and vulnerable if the colonial government had never moved there earlier in the century from Saigon, or had only moved as far north as Hue?

[DMZ]

Dec 12, 2021 9:46:16 GMT lordroel said:

You mean have Chinese troops station at the border waiting to move into French Indochina at the moment of a Japanese invasion.

Yes, comming from Kunming via railroad or crossing the border between Kunming and the coast.

Dec 12, 2021 19:52:33 GMT raharris1973 said:

One thing about this scenario, is that I think it is rather unlikely that French Indochina, alone of the major colonies, would be a major exception in going Gaullist/Fighting French and not Vichy. In OTL it was just Chad and then Cameroon Equatorial Africa at first, places that thought they might be on the chopping block for handover to Germany. Everyplace else was Vichy. Now in France fights on, where Algeria is the new capital, all the colonies stay pro-Allied, including Indochina.

Each territory joining De Gaulle did it mainly because of one man decision and action: Georges Colin, consul honoraire de France for the French Domains of Saint Helena (first to rally De Gaulle), Félix Éboué for Chad and then French Equatorial Africa... Catroux rallied De Gaulle when in Singapor, after being replaced in FIC by Decoux. He could have tried to rally the FIC to De Gaulle instead.

Dec 12, 2021 19:52:33 GMT raharris1973 said:

Also, even if Vichy, I wonder if the French Indochina government might have tried to take a firmer, more resistant line if its capital wasn't so close to Japanese occupied China in Hanoi. Perhaps they would have felt less pressured and vulnerable if the colonial government had never moved there earlier in the century from Saigon, or had only moved as far north as Hue?

Ironically, Vichy wanted to resist Japan and Decoux urged Catroux to do so when he errived in FIC. But the territory was too far from France to receive on time reinforcement. Sould it have stay in the Allied side with Free French, it could have been supported by British, meaning invading FIC would have leaded to be at war with all Commonwealth.

[stevep]

Dec 12, 2021 19:52:33 GMT raharris1973 said:

One thing about this scenario, is that I think it is rather unlikely that French Indochina, alone of the major colonies, would be a major exception in going Gaullist/Fighting French and not Vichy. In OTL it was just Chad and then Cameroon Equatorial Africa at first, places that thought they might be on the chopping block for handover to Germany. Everyplace else was Vichy. Now in France fights on, where Algeria is the new capital, all the colonies stay pro-Allied, including Indochina.

Also, even if Vichy, I wonder if the French Indochina government might have tried to take a firmer, more resistant line if its capital wasn't so close to Japanese occupied China in Hanoi. Perhaps they would have felt less pressured and vulnerable if the colonial government had never moved there earlier in the century from Saigon, or had only moved as far north as Hue?

  Welcome aboard.  Seen you on the Sietch assuming that id is you there are well.  Hope you have a good time here.

[raharris1973]

Dec 4, 2021 15:57:08 GMT ukron said:

Well, a similar AH was designed by Jacques Sapir, Frank Stora and Loïc Mahé in their "If the France had stayed in war" (roughly speaking, French gov had replied to Algeria and french colonial empire); Their exhaustive study of French and Japanese order of battle (French were reinforced by a small armored brigade and elements of AVG) led to the conclusion that Japanese/Thais would taken Indochina in two months (december 1941 to early february 1942) but French/Vietnamese defence succeeds in blocking many Japanese troops, allowing a counteroffensive of the commonwealth to free Singapore, which in their AH does not fall but is the scene of intense street fighting, exhausting the IJA troops.

Is this available online in English?