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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 5, 2022 22:40:50 GMT
Chinese had enought to do with their own front, they will only help Free French on the montaineous border area to avoid being taken in reverse. It could evolve if Catroux decide to reopen railroad to Yunnan, in this case, Chinese will have an interest to send troops but should they intervene before a Japannese invasion, it should have been a casus belli, and afterward, it won't be on time to avoid cutting railroad... At least, Catriux could discuss with Nationalists to prepare such an intervention but without good chance to succed in repelling Japannese. You mean have Chinese troops station at the border waiting to move into French Indochina at the moment of a Japanese invasion. Absolutely! |
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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 5, 2022 23:14:46 GMT
Each territory joining De Gaulle did it mainly because of one man decision and action: Georges Colin, consul honoraire de France for the French Domains of Saint Helena (first to rally De Gaulle), Félix Éboué for Chad and then French Equatorial Africa... Catroux rallied De Gaulle when in Singapore, after being replaced in FIC by Decoux. He could have tried to rally the FIC to De Gaulle instead. That would have been interesting- could Catroux have issued orders and gotten all his subordinates, even conservative and defeatist ones, to follow him into the De Gaulle camp? Would he have to hold on to his post to keep enforcing these and turn Decoux away, arrest him, or recruit him for a different job? Or could he trust the administration to stay Free French, and hand it over to a Decoux pledging loyalty to De Gaulle? What hostages did either man leave behind in France or North Africa? Might Catroux have felt stronger about resisting all Japanese demands if he had used the time earlier in his governorship (which started in June 1939, not long after the taking of Hainan island) to move the administrative center of FIC from Hanoi south to another city like Hue, or Saigon, or the hills of Da Lat. That could have provided more buffer space and warning time of incoming Japanese encroachment, but also could be perceived as looking weak in front of both the locals and the Japanese. Ironically, Vichy wanted to resist Japan and Decoux urged Catroux to do so when he errived in FIC. But the territory was too far from France to receive on time reinforcement. Sould it have stay in the Allied side with Free French, it could have been supported by British, meaning invading FIC would have leaded to be at war with all Commonwealth. Well, imagine if FIC declares Free French, and the Japanese, maybe even because of junior level action and not a big plan, can't keep their hands off it, and end up in a shooting war to fight for FIC between Sep-Nov, 1940. And the British are helping the French. The British don't *have* much of anything to help the *with*, but Churchill will see that voicing support politically for Free France in the Far East is essential, and will send whatever support he can, however symbolic. So Japan will be at declared war with Britain and France before 1940 is over. Wow, that is different. And in OTL, Japan did not have any plans to fight Britain, *without* fighting the USA. So would the Japanese have to assume, as early as late 1940, that, war with France = war with Britain = war with USA (and by the way = war with Netherlands). Everybody's going to start embargoing Japan once they're in a hot war with the French and British anyway, including the British hosted Dutch, and the British-favoring Americans. But the Japanese have a problem, they don't have quite the edge in carrier decks and carrier aircraft to be confident they can do the Pearl Harbor operation and disable the US fleet. But they can't just leave the Philippines alone either. But they can't back down either. So what do they do? Use their traditional war fighting concept of striking south with all units to sweep the Americans (and now the British and French) out of the western Pacific and Southeast Asia, including the Philippines, with their fleet and landing forces? Then set up air bases, and try to lure in adversary fleets to their zone of land-based air cover for attrition and then decisive battle? I mean that was their basic anti-US plan before Yamamoto pushed for Pearl above all. So this may mean Japan attacking and declaring war on the US about as soon as its at war with the British Commonwealth, so late 1940. Or Jan 1941 at the latest, if developments pop fast over several weeks. The Americans are less ready and the British are less ready, but the Japanese are less ready too, in serious ways. They haven't been able to peacefully occupy Indochina. Their ability to get Singapore and Sumatra is in question. Certainly their ability to get to Burma is in question. The Philippines are probably easier for them. The Japanese have fewer carriers and fewer of their fighters are zeroes. The Japanese also have to be more worried the Soviets might stab them in the back - they've got no neutrality pact with them yet, and the Soviets aren't tied down by a Nazi invasion. Will Hitler and Mussolini declare war on the Americans? To some extent it's academic, because America will be co-belligerent with Britain in Asia so it will be helping Britain everywhere. On the one hand, the Japanese don't look as strong at the start of this war as OTL, so maybe they want to hold back. On the other hand, Hitler and Mussolini could feel like striking back at the Americans for their aid to Britain is just fine now that Japan is onboard as an ally. But how ready are they? Could the Germans do as well in the long range U-Boat warfare game in early 1941 as they did in early 1942? |
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ukron
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"Beware of the French"
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Post by ukron on Jun 6, 2022 16:28:41 GMT
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 6, 2022 16:41:19 GMT
Yes, have checked it out, very interesting read. |
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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 18, 2022 20:27:52 GMT
Any thoughts on the questions I raised about how the Japanese would respond to the dilemma this puts them in? Does this result in the Japanese simply getting contained in China, and never striking further south, or in doing a strike south against everyone, earlier than OTL, despite the difficulties of reaching Singapore and Burma and Sumatra in the first pulse? Or do the Japanese attack all of the south, including Indochina in Dec 1941, with all the disadvantages in terms of reaching Burma and Singapore and Sumatra that come from not having Indochina at the start?
Or do the Japanese decide they *can* try to fight the British separately from fighting the Americans, dealing with the British first, perhaps starting in 1940 or or early 1941, at the same time they attack the French in Indochina and the Dutch in the East Indies, while temporarily bypassing the Americans in Guam and the Philippines?
Because that's the main effect of "Free French" Indochina - Japan can't rely on being able to occupy Indochina a a distinct, peaceful step, without fighting Free France, and any powers allied to Free France at that time (Britain and Netherlands). OTL Indochina's Vichy'ness was a 'loophole' that allowed Japan to expand a bit before Japan and Britain were forced to fight with each other. Free French Indochina means that 'loophole' is closed.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 19, 2022 14:01:11 GMT
Any thoughts on the questions I raised about how the Japanese would respond to the dilemma this puts them in? Does this result in the Japanese simply getting contained in China, and never striking further south, or in doing a strike south against everyone, earlier than OTL, despite the difficulties of reaching Singapore and Burma and Sumatra in the first pulse? Or do the Japanese attack all of the south, including Indochina in Dec 1941, with all the disadvantages in terms of reaching Burma and Singapore and Sumatra that come from not having Indochina at the start? Or do the Japanese decide they *can* try to fight the British separately from fighting the Americans, dealing with the British first, perhaps starting in 1940 or or early 1941, at the same time they attack the French in Indochina and the Dutch in the East Indies, while temporarily bypassing the Americans in Guam and the Philippines? Because that's the main effect of "Free French" Indochina - Japan can't rely on being able to occupy Indochina a a distinct, peaceful step, without fighting Free France, and any powers allied to Free France at that time (Britain and Netherlands). OTL Indochina's Vichy'ness was a 'loophole' that allowed Japan to expand a bit before Japan and Britain were forced to fight with each other. Free French Indochina means that 'loophole' is closed.
Those are the big issues. The most dangerous one for the western allies would be if, say some time in the period Sept 40 [when its clear Britain will continue fighting Germany] and Dec 41 Japan goes for the western allies and their colonies but gambles on not attacking the US. This could give them big bonuses even if Roosevelt gets a dow against Japan as a result and despite the problems of reaching Malaya and the DEI if the US doesn't declare war then probably the western powers are forced to make peace with Japan and Germany, or possibly just the latter.
Fortunately I think Japan would still feel they have to attack the US as well. Both because the US is rearming rapidly and also boosting the defences of the Philippines which are a potentially fatal threat to Japan's ability to trade with the world or threaten southern China and because the Japanese will very likely assume that the US would declare war because that's what they would do themselves.
Given that they attacked the US as well as the western powers in OTL I suspect they won't back down. Too much face for too many powerful figures as well as the sunken costs already made in their invasion of China.
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Post by La Rouge Beret on Jun 26, 2022 23:01:49 GMT
Firstly, French Indochina had too many civilians and too few soldiers, as it was seen as a retirement village for long service soldiers. So you need to change the force disposition, prior to making this a reality.
This means the Brits base some of their air network here, Imperial Japan faces a hard decision to start their campaign earlier. Lots of butterflies to work through. One of my earliest TLs used this POD.
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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 27, 2022 11:28:46 GMT
Firstly, French Indochina had too many civilians and too few soldiers, as it was seen as a retirement village for long service soldiers. So you need to change the force disposition, prior to making this a reality. This means the Brits base some of their air network here, Imperial Japan faces a hard decision to start their campaign earlier. Lots of butterflies to work through. One of my earliest TLs used this POD. Good points - what was your TL called? |
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Post by La Rouge Beret on Jun 27, 2022 23:58:46 GMT
Firstly, French Indochina had too many civilians and too few soldiers, as it was seen as a retirement village for long service soldiers. So you need to change the force disposition, prior to making this a reality. This means the Brits base some of their air network here, Imperial Japan faces a hard decision to start their campaign earlier. Lots of butterflies to work through. One of my earliest TLs used this POD. Good points - what was your TL called? It was my very first TL Angkor Resurgent from 2010 and eventually led to my magnum Opus 12mtm. It's very much incomplete and I always wanted to revisit it with all of my extra reference materials. |
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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 28, 2022 0:20:55 GMT
is 12mtm - 12 minutes to midnight?
I didn't see a thread called that under your name under AH.com
I did see this one:A tale of Vietnam: Con rồng trở lại và ruồi phượng hoàng
And Dragon and Phoenix
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Post by La Rouge Beret on Jun 28, 2022 1:55:11 GMT
is 12mtm - 12 minutes to midnight? I didn't see a thread called that under your name under AH.com I did see this one:A tale of Vietnam: Con rồng trở lại và ruồi phượng hoàng And Dragon and Phoenix Yup that's my short hand for 12 minutes to Midnight. The other two stories were my attemp at retelling the Second Indochinese conflict through a South Vietnamese lens. There should be a link to Angkor Resurgent in the first Vietnamese tl, otherwise there is a link on the AH wiki under Cambodian TLs. |
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Post by raharris1973 on Jun 28, 2022 22:45:53 GMT
Yup that's my short hand for 12 minutes to Midnight. Yeah- I'd heard the name, but when I looked for it I couldn't find it. |
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