French Indochina on the side of the Free French (1940)

[lordroel]

I was wondering, how would it look if French Indochina was on the side of the Free French in 1940 instead of going to Vichy France side.

[stevep]

Dec 2, 2021 20:51:25 GMT lordroel said:

I was wondering, how would it look if French Indochina was on the side of the Free French in 1940 instead of going to Vichy France side.

  Well the obvious issue is what happens with Japan?  Does it still demand control of the northern part of the colony after the fall of France?  If so what do the FF do?  Accepting this would be a huge loss of face to them.  If they refuse and it leads to war Churchill will undoubtedly support them but this would mean that Britain and by extensions the Free Dutch who control the DEI are at war with Japan.  At a point when Britain is stretched to the limit and is facing Italian threats in the Med and bombardment and invasion at home. Japan is weaker without its last two fleet carrier completed but Britain is unable to send aid to the region - most likely ANZAC and Indian forces that OTL go to the ME will be deployed there but without air and naval support can they hold?

  Similarly the US is far more isolationist and Roosevelt has an election coming up? Dare and would he risk some action against Japan?  Even the embargo that OTL occurred in June 41 after the occupation of southern FIC would be of limited use if Japan was in the process of occupying British, Dutch and Australian colonies that could supply most/all of those needs and further weakened the already overstretched allies.

  Potentially, unless the FF are willing to take the loss or the Japanese blink - the latter being unlikely I suspect - its a potential disaster for the democratic powers.

[lordroel]

Dec 3, 2021 13:13:32 GMT stevep said:

Dec 2, 2021 20:51:25 GMT lordroel said:

I was wondering, how would it look if French Indochina was on the side of the Free French in 1940 instead of going to Vichy France side.

  Well the obvious issue is what happens with Japan?  Does it still demand control of the northern part of the colony after the fall of France?  If so what do the FF do?  Accepting this would be a huge loss of face to them.  If they refuse and it leads to war Churchill will undoubtedly support them but this would mean that Britain and by extensions the Free Dutch who control the DEI are at war with Japan.  At a point when Britain is stretched to the limit and is facing Italian threats in the Med and bombardment and invasion at home. Japan is weaker without its last two fleet carrier completed but Britain is unable to send aid to the region - most likely ANZAC and Indian forces that OTL go to the ME will be deployed there but without air and naval support can they hold?

  Similarly the US is far more isolationist and Roosevelt has an election coming up? Dare and would he risk some action against Japan?  Even the embargo that OTL occurred in June 41 after the occupation of southern FIC would be of limited use if Japan was in the process of occupying British, Dutch and Australian colonies that could supply most/all of those needs and further weakened the already overstretched allies.

  Potentially, unless the FF are willing to take the loss or the Japanese blink - the latter being unlikely I suspect - its a potential disaster for the democratic powers.

Well if French Indochina sides with the Free French then the British might get involved, i doubt Japan in 1940 is planning to go to war over French Indochina, that is different in December 1941.

[stevep]

Dec 3, 2021 13:16:19 GMT lordroel said:

Dec 3, 2021 13:13:32 GMT stevep said:

  Well the obvious issue is what happens with Japan?  Does it still demand control of the northern part of the colony after the fall of France?  If so what do the FF do?  Accepting this would be a huge loss of face to them.  If they refuse and it leads to war Churchill will undoubtedly support them but this would mean that Britain and by extensions the Free Dutch who control the DEI are at war with Japan.  At a point when Britain is stretched to the limit and is facing Italian threats in the Med and bombardment and invasion at home. Japan is weaker without its last two fleet carrier completed but Britain is unable to send aid to the region - most likely ANZAC and Indian forces that OTL go to the ME will be deployed there but without air and naval support can they hold?

  Similarly the US is far more isolationist and Roosevelt has an election coming up? Dare and would he risk some action against Japan?  Even the embargo that OTL occurred in June 41 after the occupation of southern FIC would be of limited use if Japan was in the process of occupying British, Dutch and Australian colonies that could supply most/all of those needs and further weakened the already overstretched allies.

  Potentially, unless the FF are willing to take the loss or the Japanese blink - the latter being unlikely I suspect - its a potential disaster for the democratic powers.

Well if French Indochina sides with the Free French then the British might get involved, i doubt Japan in 1940 is planning to go to war over French Indochina, that is different in December 1941.

  I don't know.  With the loss of France and Italy joining the war Britain is badly overstretched and clearly so.  Japan has bases in S China, as well as further east for potential attacks on the DEI.  The US is still doing little but making noises about commercial support for Britain and a move south would both gain resources that Japan would no longer have to pay for and cut western aid routes to China.

[lordroel]

Dec 3, 2021 13:23:13 GMT stevep said:

Dec 3, 2021 13:16:19 GMT lordroel said:

Well if French Indochina sides with the Free French then the British might get involved, i doubt Japan in 1940 is planning to go to war over French Indochina, that is different in December 1941.

  I don't know.  With the loss of France and Italy joining the war Britain is badly overstretched and clearly so.  Japan has bases in S China, as well as further east for potential attacks on the DEI.  The US is still doing little but making noises about commercial support for Britain and a move south would both gain resources that Japan would no longer have to pay for and cut western aid routes to China.

But Britain could transport some Free French troops to French Indochina while in the meantime they could supply the French forces there with some hardware ore the Free French could buy from the Americans in the meantime.

[stevep]

Dec 3, 2021 13:25:16 GMT lordroel said:

Dec 3, 2021 13:23:13 GMT stevep said:

  I don't know.  With the loss of France and Italy joining the war Britain is badly overstretched and clearly so.  Japan has bases in S China, as well as further east for potential attacks on the DEI.  The US is still doing little but making noises about commercial support for Britain and a move south would both gain resources that Japan would no longer have to pay for and cut western aid routes to China.

But Britain could transport some Free French troops to French Indochina while in the meantime they could supply the French forces there with some hardware ore the Free French could buy from the Americans in the meantime.

  True but can they face up to the Japanese fleet and air force given what can be spared.  Not just talking about FF forces but what Britain and the empire/commonwealth can spare with the crisis elsewhere.

  Even if Japan ended up not attacking the need to deter/defend against a possible Japanese attack could tie up forces desperately needed elsewhere.

[lordroel]

Dec 3, 2021 15:02:31 GMT stevep said:

Dec 3, 2021 13:25:16 GMT lordroel said:

But Britain could transport some Free French troops to French Indochina while in the meantime they could supply the French forces there with some hardware ore the Free French could buy from the Americans in the meantime.

  True but can they face up to the Japanese fleet and air force given what can be spared.  Not just talking about FF forces but what Britain and the empire/commonwealth can spare with the crisis elsewhere.

  Even if Japan ended up not attacking the need to deter/defend against a possible Japanese attack could tie up forces desperately needed elsewhere.

Agreed, a Free French Indochina will not be able to hold against a Japanese invasion which is most likely to come after December 1941, but it will force the Japanese to divert some units to invade which might help on other places.

[stevep]

Dec 3, 2021 15:04:38 GMT lordroel said:

Dec 3, 2021 15:02:31 GMT stevep said:

  True but can they face up to the Japanese fleet and air force given what can be spared.  Not just talking about FF forces but what Britain and the empire/commonwealth can spare with the crisis elsewhere.

  Even if Japan ended up not attacking the need to deter/defend against a possible Japanese attack could tie up forces desperately needed elsewhere.

Agreed, a Free French Indochina will not be able to hold against a Japanese invasion which is most likely to come after December 1941, but it will force the Japanese to divert some units to invade which might help on other places.

  That might be the big bonus for holding FIC, if only briefly.  While the French garrisons are fighting, along with any aid that can be sent, there is a chance to boost the defence of Malaya and the DEI.  Although without modern a/c - for which Britain will have top priority with the Luftwaffe just over the channel - it would be difficult to tell how long those locations could hold out and how much forces would be distracted from the ME. 

  Although on the latter it could be manageable as Italy didn't really have the resources to advance beyond the border area of Egypt and their still likely to go into Greece, probably winning eventually but keeping them busy for quite a while while its doubtful that we would have the resources to intervene in Greece ourselves regardless of how desperate Churchill might be to do so.  However we're unlikely to be able to defend Malta so probably going to lose that.

  One bonus might be that the bulk of the RN sub force stays in the FE, which it was designed for and could be quite effective against Japan, with its limited ASW capacity rather than the North Sea and Med where it suffered heavy losses.

[lordroel]

Dec 4, 2021 12:03:21 GMT stevep said:

Dec 3, 2021 15:04:38 GMT lordroel said:

Agreed, a Free French Indochina will not be able to hold against a Japanese invasion which is most likely to come after December 1941, but it will force the Japanese to divert some units to invade which might help on other places.

  That might be the big bonus for holding FIC, if only briefly.  While the French garrisons are fighting, along with any aid that can be sent, there is a chance to boost the defence of Malaya and the DEI.  Although without modern a/c - for which Britain will have top priority with the Luftwaffe just over the channel - it would be difficult to tell how long those locations could hold out and how much forces would be distracted from the ME. 

  Although on the latter it could be manageable as Italy didn't really have the resources to advance beyond the border area of Egypt and their still likely to go into Greece, probably winning eventually but keeping them busy for quite a while while its doubtful that we would have the resources to intervene in Greece ourselves regardless of how desperate Churchill might be to do so.  However we're unlikely to be able to defend Malta so probably going to lose that.

  One bonus might be that the bulk of the RN sub force stays in the FE, which it was designed for and could be quite effective against Japan, with its limited ASW capacity rather than the North Sea and Med where it suffered heavy losses.

But then again, the Japanese have some troops free to invade, in OTL they invaded French Indochina on September 22nd 1940 using the Indochina Expeditionary Army, now this force is low, i assume if the Japanese launch a invasion of French Indochina in December 1941 they need a lot more units then what they used in September 1940.

[stevep]

Dec 4, 2021 12:08:12 GMT lordroel said:

Dec 4, 2021 12:03:21 GMT stevep said:

  That might be the big bonus for holding FIC, if only briefly.  While the French garrisons are fighting, along with any aid that can be sent, there is a chance to boost the defence of Malaya and the DEI.  Although without modern a/c - for which Britain will have top priority with the Luftwaffe just over the channel - it would be difficult to tell how long those locations could hold out and how much forces would be distracted from the ME. 

  Although on the latter it could be manageable as Italy didn't really have the resources to advance beyond the border area of Egypt and their still likely to go into Greece, probably winning eventually but keeping them busy for quite a while while its doubtful that we would have the resources to intervene in Greece ourselves regardless of how desperate Churchill might be to do so.  However we're unlikely to be able to defend Malta so probably going to lose that.

  One bonus might be that the bulk of the RN sub force stays in the FE, which it was designed for and could be quite effective against Japan, with its limited ASW capacity rather than the North Sea and Med where it suffered heavy losses.

But then again, the Japanese have some troops free to invade, in OTL they invaded French Indochina on September 22nd 1940 using the Indochina Expeditionary Army, now this force is low, i assume if the Japanese launch a invasion of French Indochina in December 1941 they need a lot more units then what they used in September 1940.

  lordroel,

  I think we're at cross purposes.  I'm assuming that the historical Japanese demands for the occupation of Northern FIC would occur as OTL but that a FF FIC would oppose such a move.  Hadn't realised that it was as late as September which might change things somewhat, although badly for the defence of the region as forces are likely to be drawn to the ME by then.  FIC will go down unfortunately but could take a fair number of Japanese forces with it and more importantly win time for the defence of areas further south. 

  If the Japanese attack wasn't to occur until Dec 41 then that would make a big difference as while the Japanese are stronger they are further away from Malaya especially.  They still have Hainan Island and locations on the mainland of S China but they won't have the bases around Saigon for instance so no land based air cover over Malaya for their operations.  Also without Japanese control of FIC Thailand could well stay neutral, at least at 1st.  That means in the Japanese land in S Thailand their likely to be opposed so it would be a hell of a lot more difficult for the Japanese to establish themselves there.

  Steve

[lordroel]

Dec 4, 2021 12:30:25 GMT stevep said:

Dec 4, 2021 12:08:12 GMT lordroel said:

But then again, the Japanese have some troops free to invade, in OTL they invaded French Indochina on September 22nd 1940 using the Indochina Expeditionary Army, now this force is low, i assume if the Japanese launch a invasion of French Indochina in December 1941 they need a lot more units then what they used in September 1940.

  lordroel,

  I think we're at cross purposes.  I'm assuming that the historical Japanese demands for the occupation of Northern FIC would occur as OTL but that a FF FIC would oppose such a move.  Hadn't realised that it was as late as September which might change things somewhat, although badly for the defence of the region as forces are likely to be drawn to the ME by then.  FIC will go down unfortunately but could take a fair number of Japanese forces with it and more importantly win time for the defence of areas further south. 

  If the Japanese attack wasn't to occur until Dec 41 then that would make a big difference as while the Japanese are stronger they are further away from Malaya especially.  They still have Hainan Island and locations on the mainland of S China but they won't have the bases around Saigon for instance so no land based air cover over Malaya for their operations.  Also without Japanese control of FIC Thailand could well stay neutral, at least at 1st.  That means in the Japanese land in S Thailand their likely to be opposed so it would be a hell of a lot more difficult for the Japanese to establish themselves there.

  Steve

Could Japan not offer Laos to Thailand.

[stevep]

Dec 4, 2021 12:32:39 GMT lordroel said:

Dec 4, 2021 12:30:25 GMT stevep said:

  lordroel ,

  I think we're at cross purposes.  I'm assuming that the historical Japanese demands for the occupation of Northern FIC would occur as OTL but that a FF FIC would oppose such a move.  Hadn't realised that it was as late as September which might change things somewhat, although badly for the defence of the region as forces are likely to be drawn to the ME by then.  FIC will go down unfortunately but could take a fair number of Japanese forces with it and more importantly win time for the defence of areas further south. 

  If the Japanese attack wasn't to occur until Dec 41 then that would make a big difference as while the Japanese are stronger they are further away from Malaya especially.  They still have Hainan Island and locations on the mainland of S China but they won't have the bases around Saigon for instance so no land based air cover over Malaya for their operations.  Also without Japanese control of FIC Thailand could well stay neutral, at least at 1st.  That means in the Japanese land in S Thailand their likely to be opposed so it would be a hell of a lot more difficult for the Japanese to establish themselves there.

  Steve

Could Japan not offer Laos to Thailand.

  They could offer land although I think it was more likely parts of what's now Cambodia.  - OTL, possibly under urging from Tokyo Thailand had a small 'border war' with Vichy FIC where they performed fairly poorly at least at sea, but Japan stepped in to impose a settlement that transferred some provinces of Cambodia to Thailand.

  However from what I read a long while back Thailand was somewhat cautious about siding with Japan.  This is important as in this scenario Thailand is totally surrounded by allied territory - British Burma and Malaya and FIC so their less likely to step in on the fascist side at least until Japan has overrun FIC and possibly a bit of time after that.  If they stayed neutral then Japan, unless it attacks them, has no land access to Burma and also to the airfields and other bases in S Thailand.

[lordroel]

Dec 4, 2021 12:39:10 GMT stevep said:

Dec 4, 2021 12:32:39 GMT lordroel said:

Could Japan not offer Laos to Thailand.

  They could offer land although I think it was more likely parts of what's now Cambodia.  - OTL, possibly under urging from Tokyo Thailand had a small 'border war' with Vichy FIC where they performed fairly poorly at least at sea, but Japan stepped in to impose a settlement that transferred some provinces of Cambodia to Thailand.

  However from what I read a long while back Thailand was somewhat cautious about siding with Japan.  This is important as in this scenario Thailand is totally surrounded by allied territory - British Burma and Malaya and FIC so their less likely to step in on the fascist side at least until Japan has overrun FIC and possibly a bit of time after that.  If they stayed neutral then Japan, unless it attacks them, has no land access to Burma and also to the airfields and other bases in S Thailand.

Speaking of Thailand, we forget the Franco-Thai War, would Thailand be willing to go to war with a Free French controlled French Indochina if they have the backing of the British, in OTL Major-General Plaek Pibulsonggram , the prime minister of Thailand, decided that France's defeat gave the Thais an even better chance to regain the vassal state territories that were ceded to France during King Chulalongkorn's reign.

But if French Indochina is on the side of the Free French it might be a complete different story.

[stevep]

Dec 4, 2021 12:59:59 GMT lordroel said:

Dec 4, 2021 12:39:10 GMT stevep said:

  They could offer land although I think it was more likely parts of what's now Cambodia.  - OTL, possibly under urging from Tokyo Thailand had a small 'border war' with Vichy FIC where they performed fairly poorly at least at sea, but Japan stepped in to impose a settlement that transferred some provinces of Cambodia to Thailand.

  However from what I read a long while back Thailand was somewhat cautious about siding with Japan.  This is important as in this scenario Thailand is totally surrounded by allied territory - British Burma and Malaya and FIC so their less likely to step in on the fascist side at least until Japan has overrun FIC and possibly a bit of time after that.  If they stayed neutral then Japan, unless it attacks them, has no land access to Burma and also to the airfields and other bases in S Thailand.

Speaking of Thailand, we forget the Franco-Thai War, would Thailand be willing to go to war with a Free French controlled French Indochina if they have the backing of the British, in OTL Major-General Plaek Pibulsonggram , the prime minister of Thailand, decided that France's defeat gave the Thais an even better chance to regain the vassal state territories that were ceded to France during King Chulalongkorn's reign.

But if French Indochina is on the side of the Free French it might be a complete different story.

  That's the border war I mentioned.   Can't see Britain supporting the Thais and Thailand could be a lot more cautious here for the reasons I mentioned.

[ukron]

Well, a similar AH was designed by Jacques Sapir, Frank Stora and Loïc Mahé in their "If the France had stayed in war" (roughly speaking, French gov had replied to Algeria and french colonial empire); Their exhaustive study of French and Japanese order of battle (French were reinforced by a small armored brigade and elements of AVG) led to the conclusion that Japanese/Thais would taken Indochina in two months (december 1941 to early february 1942) but French/Vietnamese defence succeeds in blocking many Japanese troops, allowing a counteroffensive of the commonwealth to free Singapore, which in their AH does not fall but is the scene of intense street fighting, exhausting the IJA troops.