miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 15, 2022 18:14:05 GMT
Even with an aircraft industry, I can see him making mistakes that will have his visitors doing this;   At least in Mexico, he might have a chance against these "people";  The United States was almost ready to move into Mexico to kick France out when France due Prussian threats left on their own, i see a new French push as a certain way to get a American-Prussian alliance from the ground. Oddly enough, I see a Spanish American War lead-in from that premise. Have to deny the French airbases in Cuba. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 16, 2022 14:16:46 GMT
Even with an aircraft industry, I can see him making mistakes that will have his visitors doing this; At least in Mexico, he might have a chance against these "people"; The United States was almost ready to move into Mexico to kick France out when France due Prussian threats left on their own, i see a new French push as a certain way to get a American-Prussian alliance from the ground.
Unless you assume that only materials are supplied, i.e. the air bases, a/c, construction facilities and possibly plans - i.e. no people - then Napoleon III will have full information of future events very quickly. Given that I suspect his main concerns would be developing that huge technology edge and dealing with Prussia. Here he will know about Bismarck's trap and walk into it with eyes full open and the Prussians are likely to get very badly mauled. If he's smart - which could be a big issue - then you get probably a reversal to pre-1866 borders in Germany and then some, say Austria getting Silesia back and other German states gaining Prussian lands - the old divide and rule tactic - plus France probably getting the Saar and quite possibly pushing for Belgium or at least part of it. Basically unless the French really screw up their going to be unstoppable for a period of time. That duration would depend on how long the French empire stays stable and how long before other nations manage to catch up.
I doubt Nappy would be that interested in a return to Mexico as emperor Maximillian and the basis for such a move will have gone. However, given uptime knowledge he might well make a deal with Columbia for a canal across their Panamanian province. Which would be likely to succeed this time. Its possible, also given that future knowledge he might want a preventive war against the US and them trying to prevent this or the suggested attack on Cuba by the US could give a good casus belli for that.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 16, 2022 14:31:45 GMT
-WW2 occured because several specific things happened. None of those things would occur in this Alternate Earth How can one prove this? Will not France, Britain and Russia seek revenge? If Brest Litvosk is a guide as to a German version of Versailles, even the Americans will seek revenge. -WW1 was a huge factor in spreading 1917 Influenza and taking away resources to fight it. Without a war it would be much more contained and cured much earlier. It was not cured. What happened was that those who were strong enough to survive it, survived it and passed that herd immunity onto their newborn kids. That is a pure common descent mechanism at work in 1918. Only later in the 1940s did we begin to develop ways to "trick" herd immunity outcomes with mimic vaccines of a type that fooled human auto-immune systems into adapting to each new year's version of the flu. -Only reason Turks got away with it is because of WW1. Without the cover of World War, EVERYONE is going to notice it and punish the Ottomans severely How? Study Gallipoli. -Armenians, Assyrians and Greeks living in the Ottoman Empire are Christians. The Ottoman Turks are Muslims. True, so we should expect the Three Pashas to ignore the Kurds who are being genocided as well at this time? The Kurds are the "wrong" kind of Muslims. What I am trying to illustrate, here, is that the Turkish regime of that era is composed of some really sick depraved disgusting human beings. They mass murdered, and war or no war, they mass murdered because that was their policy. Proof? What sparked the Balkan Wars BEFORE WWI? Every nation is going to spend hard cash to build their own Airforce after seeing Germany quickly win WW1 in just months thanks to its Planes Once Orville and Wilbur figure out 2 d flight stability and how to turn, it comes down to engine plants. One thing not mentioned in the ISOT is that NOBODY has the aluminum and high temperature steels to make a Jumo or a MB piston engine and lacks Inconel to make a jet engine. I figure PRATT and RR get there first and the Germans will be throttled by the early 30s. Humanity builds its first space colony in 1990 Why? What is the compelling need to make that enormous investment?
A number of interesting points here. a) On a future war it would depend on how aggressive Germany was in its victory conditions and how long their determined to seek to keep everybody else down. This could be limited by political will inside Germany or good secrecy inside other powers, most likely probably the US and UK and depending how things go there Russia. [The latter because it has the potential resources and a massive area to hide secret operations in].
b) The 1917 influenza may or may not still occur. It would depend on the events that lead to its 1st emergence and how random or not they were. If something like the OTL virus occurs its going to kill a lot of people but the better health of many and the fact there would be less secrecy over deaths are likely to make it somewhat less devastating. [Although with a much shorter WWI and resultant lower casualties there the still probably massive flu deaths would probably seem much worse than OTL.
c) Without a world war diverting both attention and the bulk of available resources then once the news of the massacres got out and unless some political events stopped it it would be very likely that people would seek to intervene and the Ottomans are simply too weak to stop this provided that Germany doesn't support them and in this case their highly unlikely to. They could well end up doing so themselves possibly. [This assumes that the main massacres don't start until Europe is at peace again].
d) It will take longer than I think miletus12 suggests because of the lead the Germans have unless they suffer very badly from victory disease. They will still be a world leader in many aspects of science and will have a lot more resources to commit to science, albeit that any rivals who aren't totally screwed over by TTL's WWI are going to have a hell of an incentive to catch up quickly.
e) There would be so many variables that we have no way of knowing how space technology and the will to support it will develop. Presuming that there isn't a major nuclear war or other disaster then you could see a number of drivers for a longer and possibly more complex space race to last longer than OTL and lead to extra-terrestrial colonies by 1990. Or you could see as little progress as OTL even with some shattering disaster.
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miletus12
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To get yourself lost, just follow the signs.
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 16, 2022 16:33:21 GMT
Unless you assume that only materials are supplied, i.e. the air bases, a/c, construction facilities and possibly plans - i.e. no people - then Napoleon III will have full information of future events very quickly. Given that I suspect his main concerns would be developing that huge technology edge and dealing with Prussia. Here he will know about Bismarck's trap and walk into it with eyes full open and the Prussians are likely to get very badly mauled. If he's smart - which could be a big issue - then you get probably a reversal to pre-1866 borders in Germany and then some, say Austria getting Silesia back and other German states gaining Prussian lands - the old divide and rule tactic - plus France probably getting the Saar and quite possibly pushing for Belgium or at least part of it. Basically unless the French really screw up their going to be unstoppable for a period of time. That duration would depend on how long the French empire stays stable and how long before other nations manage to catch up. 1. Napoleon III has 1 year to get ready. This is a blip. The 1940 French aircraft industry is UTTER CHAOS. They are delivering planes without gunsights, radios, guns, spare parts, oxygen systems, armor and in some cases with whole sections of planes missing. Nothing has been written about the air force, the training base or the supply chain in the OP. I noticed that and assume it in a 1940 state as well. That means disorganized factories, labor unrest and a bureaucratic snarl in the reluctantly nationalized air industry as well as an air force that is in a state of quasi mutiny. One expects a nincompoop like Napoleon III to make sense of it? 2. The French can be expected to screw it all up in 1870. Because they did., Jun 16, 2022 10:16:46 GMT -4 stevep said: I doubt Nappy would be that interested in a return to Mexico as emperor Maximillian and the basis for such a move will have gone. However, given uptime knowledge he might well make a deal with Columbia for a canal across their Panamanian province. Which would be likely to succeed this time. Its possible, also given that future knowledge he might want a preventive war against the US and them trying to prevent this or the suggested attack on Cuba by the US could give a good casus belli for that. 3. They do not have steam shovels or dynamite. b) The 1917 influenza may or may not still occur. It would depend on the events that lead to its 1st emergence and how random or not they were. If something like the OTL virus occurs its going to kill a lot of people but the better health of many and the fact there would be less secrecy over deaths are likely to make it somewhat less devastating. [Although with a much shorter WWI and resultant lower casualties there the still probably massive flu deaths would probably seem much worse than OTL. 4. French public health officials screwed it up when it came in from Spain, and then it was exported. I still expect that to happen.
c) Without a world war diverting both attention and the bulk of available resources then once the news of the massacres got out and unless some political events stopped it it would be very likely that people would seek to intervene and the Ottomans are simply too weak to stop this provided that Germany doesn't support them and in this case their highly unlikely to. They could well end up doing so themselves possibly. [This assumes that the main massacres don't start until Europe is at peace again]. 5. Same again. Gallipoli. Whether Pith Helmet or Pickelhaub, the problem is that no-one can get at the Turks except by amphibious assault. In that era, how is that going to work? Not too good. d) It will take longer than I think miletus12 suggests because of the lead the Germans have unless they suffer very badly from victory disease. They will still be a world leader in many aspects of science and will have a lot more resources to commit to science, albeit that any rivals who aren't totally screwed over by TTL's WWI are going to have a hell of an incentive to catch up quickly. 6. Note my supply chain comments. Who has the Chrome? It is not the Germans. e) There would be so many variables that we have no way of knowing how space technology and the will to support it will develop. Presuming that there isn't a major nuclear war or other disaster then you could see a number of drivers for a longer and possibly more complex space race to last longer than OTL and lead to extra-terrestrial colonies by 1990. Or you could see as little progress as OTL even with some shattering disaster. 7. No Werner von Braun or that genius Korolev, no Moon Race. Forgot JFK. |
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Post by shadow007 on Jun 17, 2022 2:28:08 GMT
3000 BCE. Every Bronze Age Civilization (Tribes and Nomads don't count) gets a lot of Printing Presses, Ink and Paper. Also Manuals in their own Languages on to use, maintain and make more of the three things.
The Bronze Age Civilizations I'm aware of that existed back then are:
-Sumerians
-Indus Valley
-Egypt
-China?
-Norte Chico/Peru
Wondering how it affect technological and social development as well as the longevity of these and future civilizations
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miletus12
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To get yourself lost, just follow the signs.
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 17, 2022 2:39:45 GMT
3000 BCE. Every Bronze Age Civilization (Tribes and Nomads don't count) gets a lot of Printing Presses, Ink and Paper. Also Manuals in their own Languages on to use, maintain and make more of the three things. The Bronze Age Civilizations I'm aware of that existed back then are: -Sumerians -Indus Valley -Egypt -China? -Norte Chico/Peru Wondering how it affect technological and social development as well as the longevity of these and future civilizations How much good did it do the Chinese? It did nothing for them. The Europeans 2,400 years later... tore them apart. One needs a certain dedicated approach to how things work. |
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Post by shadow007 on Jun 17, 2022 3:42:33 GMT
3000 BCE. Every Bronze Age Civilization (Tribes and Nomads don't count) gets a lot of Printing Presses, Ink and Paper. Also Manuals in their own Languages on to use, maintain and make more of the three things. The Bronze Age Civilizations I'm aware of that existed back then are: -Sumerians -Indus Valley -Egypt -China? -Norte Chico/Peru Wondering how it affect technological and social development as well as the longevity of these and future civilizations How much good did it do the Chinese? It did nothing for them. The Europeans 2,400 years later... tore them apart. One needs a certain dedicated approach to how things work. The Chinese didn't have the Printing Press though... So the Ionian Greeks conquer China in 1200 BCE in your opinion? |
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 17, 2022 3:52:03 GMT
600 CE.How much good did it do the Chinese? It did nothing for them. The Europeans 2,400 years later... tore them apart. One needs a certain dedicated approach to how things work. The Chinese didn't have the Printing Press though... So the Ionian Greeks conquer China in 1200 BCE in your opinion? 1. Block repeatable ideographs, inks and printing silks. Close enough for Zeppelin work. 2. The Ionian Greeks do not have celestial navigation, the compass, the stirrup, or blue water hulls. How do they reach China? |
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Post by shadow007 on Jun 17, 2022 3:59:24 GMT
The Chinese didn't have the Printing Press though... So the Ionian Greeks conquer China in 1200 BCE in your opinion? 1. Block repeatable ideographs, inks and printing silks. Close enough for Zeppelin work. 2. The Ionian Greeks do not have celestial navigation, the compass, the stirrup, or blue water hulls. How do they reach China? Doesn't the Printing Press and Paper vastly increase the literacy, development of technology and transfer of ideas for all the 3000 BCE Bronze Age Civilizations? China would know through trade that India/Indus Valley, Egypt and Sumeria also have the two things I don't know what counts as civilization back then so there maybe more groups that are affected by this scenario |
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 17, 2022 4:21:43 GMT
1. Block repeatable ideographs, inks and printing silks. Close enough for Zeppelin work. 2. The Ionian Greeks do not have celestial navigation, the compass, the stirrup, or blue water hulls. How do they reach China? Doesn't the Printing Press and Paper vastly increase the literacy, development of technology and transfer of ideas for all the 3000 BCE Bronze Age Civilizations? China would know through trade that India/Indus Valley, Egypt and Sumeria also have the two things I don't know what counts as civilization back then so there maybe more groups that are affected by this scenario 1. No. We have MODERN China and Cuba to demonstrate that literacy needs a social cultural change in human attitude for the necessary technical and scientific progress to kick in. It is arguable that some nations have not made that adaptation yet. 2. And it did them no good either. 3. Pick a river valley with periodic flooding that can support rice, or arable rain belts that support wheat and cattle. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 17, 2022 11:49:27 GMT
Unless you assume that only materials are supplied, i.e. the air bases, a/c, construction facilities and possibly plans - i.e. no people - then Napoleon III will have full information of future events very quickly. Given that I suspect his main concerns would be developing that huge technology edge and dealing with Prussia. Here he will know about Bismarck's trap and walk into it with eyes full open and the Prussians are likely to get very badly mauled. If he's smart - which could be a big issue - then you get probably a reversal to pre-1866 borders in Germany and then some, say Austria getting Silesia back and other German states gaining Prussian lands - the old divide and rule tactic - plus France probably getting the Saar and quite possibly pushing for Belgium or at least part of it. Basically unless the French really screw up their going to be unstoppable for a period of time. That duration would depend on how long the French empire stays stable and how long before other nations manage to catch up. 1. Napoleon III has 1 year to get ready. This is a blip. The 1940 French aircraft industry is UTTER CHAOS. They are delivering planes without gunsights, radios, guns, spare parts, oxygen systems, armor and in some cases with whole sections of planes missing. Nothing has been written about the air force, the training base or the supply chain in the OP. I noticed that and assume it in a 1940 state as well. That means disorganized factories, labor unrest and a bureaucratic snarl in the reluctantly nationalized air industry as well as an air force that is in a state of quasi mutiny. One expects a nincompoop like Napoleon III to make sense of it? 2. The French can be expected to screw it all up in 1870. Because they did., Jun 16, 2022 10:16:46 GMT -4 stevep said: I doubt Nappy would be that interested in a return to Mexico as emperor Maximillian and the basis for such a move will have gone. However, given uptime knowledge he might well make a deal with Columbia for a canal across their Panamanian province. Which would be likely to succeed this time. Its possible, also given that future knowledge he might want a preventive war against the US and them trying to prevent this or the suggested attack on Cuba by the US could give a good casus belli for that. 3. They do not have steam shovels or dynamite. b) The 1917 influenza may or may not still occur. It would depend on the events that lead to its 1st emergence and how random or not they were. If something like the OTL virus occurs its going to kill a lot of people but the better health of many and the fact there would be less secrecy over deaths are likely to make it somewhat less devastating. [Although with a much shorter WWI and resultant lower casualties there the still probably massive flu deaths would probably seem much worse than OTL. 4. French public health officials screwed it up when it came in from Spain, and then it was exported. I still expect that to happen.
c) Without a world war diverting both attention and the bulk of available resources then once the news of the massacres got out and unless some political events stopped it it would be very likely that people would seek to intervene and the Ottomans are simply too weak to stop this provided that Germany doesn't support them and in this case their highly unlikely to. They could well end up doing so themselves possibly. [This assumes that the main massacres don't start until Europe is at peace again]. 5. Same again. Gallipoli. Whether Pith Helmet or Pickelhaub, the problem is that no-one can get at the Turks except by amphibious assault. In that era, how is that going to work? Not too good. d) It will take longer than I think miletus12 suggests because of the lead the Germans have unless they suffer very badly from victory disease. They will still be a world leader in many aspects of science and will have a lot more resources to commit to science, albeit that any rivals who aren't totally screwed over by TTL's WWI are going to have a hell of an incentive to catch up quickly. 6. Note my supply chain comments. Who has the Chrome? It is not the Germans. e) There would be so many variables that we have no way of knowing how space technology and the will to support it will develop. Presuming that there isn't a major nuclear war or other disaster then you could see a number of drivers for a longer and possibly more complex space race to last longer than OTL and lead to extra-terrestrial colonies by 1990. Or you could see as little progress as OTL even with some shattering disaster. 7. No Werner von Braun or that genius Korolev, no Moon Race. Forgot JFK.
1 & 2 - idiotic bias is idiotic bias. The French here have a massive technological advantage and knowledge of future events. To a lesser degree others will but they have much less access to the information.
3) They will have people with the necessary knowledge, most especially on how to handle mosquitos, which was the single biggest reason for the failure of the OTL French effort. By the time the US tried in the early 20thC Ross and others had discovered the involvement of mosquitoes in both and found answers to control them.
4) See reply above.
5) Again your being stupid for the sake of it. If WWI is already over there are plenty of other ways of getting at the Turkish regime and probably a fair number of powers that will be willing to do so.
6) You think the US has a world monopoly on chromium and will utterly refuse to sell it to anyone.
7) Utter lack of thought again. In such changes circumstances none of us can do more than guess what would happen by the end of the century.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jun 17, 2022 12:03:50 GMT
Okay you two play nice okay.
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Jun 17, 2022 13:23:14 GMT
1 & 2 - idiotic bias is idiotic bias. The French here have a massive technological advantage and knowledge of future events. To a lesser degree others will but they have much less access to the information. Idiotic bias is not a unique condition or characteristic. 1776 British especially; and 1812, 1898, 1916, 1941, 1950, 1960, 1991, 2001, 2008 and 2021 Americans. Having access to superior knowledge or technology also guarantees nothing. (American Revolution and Vietnam.). 3) They will have people with the necessary knowledge, most especially on how to handle mosquitos, which was the single biggest reason for the failure of the OTL French effort. By the time the US tried in the early 20thC Ross and others had discovered the involvement of mosquitoes in both and found answers to control them. Spanish American War, the Americans noticed actually ( Cuban doctor Carlos Finlay actually deserves the credit.), Steve, and the French still do not have... dynamite or steam shovels or any idea how to build the canal locks. See mine. 6) You think the US has a world monopoly on chromium and will utterly refuse to sell it to anyone. The British were the loophole sellers and so were the Chinese. US has its own supply and did not sell to the Germans. The Germans do not have a supply, so went scrounging. Stalin was another person foolish enough to sell the 1930s Germans some. With the implications of what chrome means in the ISOT, will the British and Russians wise up? The Chinese? Ehhh. 7) Utter lack of thought again. In such changes circumstances none of us can do more than guess what would happen by the end of the century. Van Karman might get the US "the grand tour" because he did, but a manned program is an order of magnitude difference in difficulty. One needs a couple of program managers and hucksters and one eager politician to make it go. |
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melanie
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Post by melanie on Jun 18, 2022 21:09:31 GMT
The complete 1910 territory of the Kingdom of Prussia to 1982. Let's make it 12:01AM on January 1st 1910/1982.  |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 19, 2022 13:43:13 GMT
The complete 1910 territory of the Kingdom of Prussia to 1982. Let's make it 12:01AM on January 1st 1910/1982.
Technically I think your included Alsace_Lorraine which was a direct part of the empire so not sure it would be included? Also Oldenburg and Saxony which were still outside Prussia, like Bavaria, Baden and Wurttmnberg were. The northern territories were part of the North German Confederation formed after the defeat of Austria in 1866 IIRC. However allowing for that and also assuming no overseas possessions were brought along. See here for its borders in 1867. Saxony, Oldenburg and a number of other states were part of the NGC but not formally part of Prussia.
Anyway that aside then both Europe and the EU are thrown into chaos with the bulk of its most powerful nation along with chunks of others disappearing. Poland, Denmark, France [if A-L is included] and Belgium have lost territory. Possibly also Lithuania. Most concerning of all might be that Russia has lost the E Prussian enclave it had so Putin won't be happy. Which would be good if the idiot didn't have so many nukes.
Its also going to cause a big economic and fiscal hit with most of the German economy gone alone with Berlin as its political centre and Frankfurt the banking one for both Germany and the EU. Also with a lot of transport links severed areas such as S Germany and the now isolated inland Poland are going to have problems getting materials in and exports out. Also if A-L is included then the EU has lost Strasbourg although I don't think its an important as it used to be.
Many people in the 1910 area, especially the rulers, are going to be horrified by events, especially social and political changes. Also how backwards they are compared to much of the world. Their likely to face demands for border changes, although this could be accompanied by plebiscites in the affected areas. As such Prussia could lose a good chunk of Schwinger-Holstein, the Posen region and quite possibly Alsace-Lorraine. Not sure about other areas. The down-timers aren't likely to be happy with that but their probably going to be given no choice.
Bringing the affected area up to date is going to be a huge task, both technological and social/cultural, and will easily exceed the task of incorporating E Germany in the 1990s.
There are going to be the old questions of what to do with leading WWII criminals who are currently in their infancy/childhood in many cases - plus possibly some charges against some WWI people but their less likely to be pressed.
Edit:- Just realised I noticed the 1910 but not the 1982. Idiot!!
Putin is still a low level KGB thug. We have a senile wreak in the Kremlin and an irresponsible idiot in the White House so with the general chaos in central Europe things could get very bad! Doesn't help that Thatcher is in charge here and pre-Falklands is desperate for something to distract from the disaster that is her economic and social policies. Coupled with assorted other issues such as communist Poland having lost a lot of its lands and people to Imperial Germany, which I can't see going well.
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