The ISOT thread

[melanie]

feel free to borrow at will.
Lord R: yes, the 1923 Europeans parts of Treaty of Lausanne Turkey and the Soviet Union come too with the rest of 1923 Europe.

[stevep]

May 13, 2022 8:15:46 GMT melanie said:

Europe in 1923 to 1962 just days before the Missile Crisis. See this map:

  Given the clarification that it includes European Turkey and Russia this could get very hairy.  The rump 1962 Soviet Union will lose contact with Moscow and also their forces in eastern Europe so it could be that someone fears the worst and nukes start flying.  The USSR won't have many and their lost a lot of their resources plus there are defences for N America - but not for Western Europe - so the damage probably wouldn't be overwhelming, even with the US response - although would they also hit China?

  Assuming this doesn't happen then the affected area is in serious problems because its got a hell of a lot of catching up to do, both technologically and socially.  Simply trying to adjust the region to 1962 standards will be a huge task, while the OTL social revolution in the west could be somewhat curtailed.  There's also going to be some interesting questions in Turkey and the USSR.  For the former who is brought forward so to speak?  If it includes Ataturk that could raise some interesting questions.  For the Soviets their lost anyone in their core territories which is likely to mean most/all of the politburo but at the same time have European Russia in post civil war chaos with Lenin - albeit near his death, Stalin and Trotsky.  I wonder what the 1962 USSR will make of those and you could see a round of conflict in either or both regions let alone between factions in each of them.  The 1922 USSR has very little power but some figures and resources that will be important.

  Given the weakening of the European powers by them being thrown back in time the last stages of decolonization will go fast overall I think.  While many 22ers will be less inclined to accept colonial independence they simply don't have the same resources as their 62 equivalents have and colonial forces already in place will be cut off and lose a lot of equipment support.  Plus there will be pressure from the 62 world to move things along.  As such the Spanish and Portuguese empires could end sooner than OTL.  One possible exception here might be France over Algeria which is formally a part of metropolitan France and has a significant French population so its possible that 22 France might support its colonists and forces in 62 Algeria with some vigor but how much they might be outclassed by the up-time rebels would be a big issue.

[575]

May 13, 2022 13:27:26 GMT stevep said:

May 13, 2022 8:15:46 GMT melanie said:

Europe in 1923 to 1962 just days before the Missile Crisis. See this map:

  Given the clarification that it includes European Turkey and Russia this could get very hairy.  The rump 1962 Soviet Union will lose contact with Moscow and also their forces in eastern Europe so it could be that someone fears the worst and nukes start flying.  The USSR won't have many and their lost a lot of their resources plus there are defences for N America - but not for Western Europe - so the damage probably wouldn't be overwhelming, even with the US response - although would they also hit China?

  Assuming this doesn't happen then the affected area is in serious problems because its got a hell of a lot of catching up to do, both technologically and socially.  Simply trying to adjust the region to 1962 standards will be a huge task, while the OTL social revolution in the west could be somewhat curtailed.  There's also going to be some interesting questions in Turkey and the USSR.  For the former who is brought forward so to speak?  If it includes Ataturk that could raise some interesting questions.  For the Soviets their lost anyone in their core territories which is likely to mean most/all of the politburo but at the same time have European Russia in post civil war chaos with Lenin - albeit near his death, Stalin and Trotsky.  I wonder what the 1962 USSR will make of those and you could see a round of conflict in either or both regions let alone between factions in each of them.  The 1922 USSR has very little power but some figures and resources that will be important.

  Given the weakening of the European powers by them being thrown back in time the last stages of decolonization will go fast overall I think.  While many 22ers will be less inclined to accept colonial independence they simply don't have the same resources as their 62 equivalents have and colonial forces already in place will be cut off and lose a lot of equipment support.  Plus there will be pressure from the 62 world to move things along.  As such the Spanish and Portuguese empires could end sooner than OTL.  One possible exception here might be France over Algeria which is formally a part of metropolitan France and has a significant French population so its possible that 22 France might support its colonists and forces in 62 Algeria with some vigor but how much they might be outclassed by the up-time rebels would be a big issue.

Looked up a few things; the remaining Soviet ICBMs will be at Baikanour perhaps some 30 all with warheads and fuel stored separately due to corrosion and no shelters! Also with comms cut off from Moscow how do the Soviets in Siberia react? This is no merely pushing the button.

Guess LeMay will be pushing John F as much as possible to be allowed turning Baikanour and surrounds to glass - whoever heard of some Soviet rocket pad in the middle of Central Asia? And Cuba of course.

There will be lots of comms across the Pond between 1923 governments and their 1962 ambassadors to UN. Warsaw Pact just lost its legitimacy if any ever but also the major Colonial Powers have to adjust to the situation. Evian Accords regarding Algerian independence was ratified 1. July 1962 so France is on its way out though still retain Mers-el-Kebir.

Decolonization will be sped up.

Plus for the 1923 states - most WWI debt by 1962 is gone.

Musso is in power - Hitler isn't nor Franco.

[stevep]

May 13, 2022 14:01:10 GMT 575 said:

May 13, 2022 13:27:26 GMT stevep said:

  Given the clarification that it includes European Turkey and Russia this could get very hairy.  The rump 1962 Soviet Union will lose contact with Moscow and also their forces in eastern Europe so it could be that someone fears the worst and nukes start flying.  The USSR won't have many and their lost a lot of their resources plus there are defences for N America - but not for Western Europe - so the damage probably wouldn't be overwhelming, even with the US response - although would they also hit China?

  Assuming this doesn't happen then the affected area is in serious problems because its got a hell of a lot of catching up to do, both technologically and socially.  Simply trying to adjust the region to 1962 standards will be a huge task, while the OTL social revolution in the west could be somewhat curtailed.  There's also going to be some interesting questions in Turkey and the USSR.  For the former who is brought forward so to speak?  If it includes Ataturk that could raise some interesting questions.  For the Soviets their lost anyone in their core territories which is likely to mean most/all of the politburo but at the same time have European Russia in post civil war chaos with Lenin - albeit near his death, Stalin and Trotsky.  I wonder what the 1962 USSR will make of those and you could see a round of conflict in either or both regions let alone between factions in each of them.  The 1922 USSR has very little power but some figures and resources that will be important.

  Given the weakening of the European powers by them being thrown back in time the last stages of decolonization will go fast overall I think.  While many 22ers will be less inclined to accept colonial independence they simply don't have the same resources as their 62 equivalents have and colonial forces already in place will be cut off and lose a lot of equipment support.  Plus there will be pressure from the 62 world to move things along.  As such the Spanish and Portuguese empires could end sooner than OTL.  One possible exception here might be France over Algeria which is formally a part of metropolitan France and has a significant French population so its possible that 22 France might support its colonists and forces in 62 Algeria with some vigor but how much they might be outclassed by the up-time rebels would be a big issue.

Looked up a few things; the remaining Soviet ICBMs will be at Baikanour perhaps some 30 all with warheads and fuel stored separately due to corrosion and no shelters! Also with comms cut off from Moscow how do the Soviets in Siberia react? This is no merely pushing the button.

Guess LeMay will be pushing John F as much as possible to be allowed turning Baikanour and surrounds to glass - whoever heard of some Soviet rocket pad in the middle of Central Asia? And Cuba of course.

There will be lots of comms across the Pond between 1923 governments and their 1962 ambassadors to UN. Warsaw Pact just lost its legitimacy if any ever but also the major Colonial Powers have to adjust to the situation. Evian Accords regarding Algerian independence was ratified 1. July 1962 so France is on its way out though still retain Mers-el-Kebir.

Decolonization will be sped up.

Plus for the 1923 states - most WWI debt by 1962 is gone.

Musso is in power - Hitler isn't nor Franco.

  Good point about Mussolini already being in power and wonder how that will go down with the 1962 world.  Probably not very well.  Mind you he's lost a lot of his position as Italy is even more backward compared to the 1962 world and its empire has gone.  If he's not out-rightly couped, possibly with external assistance he's definitely not going to be allowed into Albania.  Although just remembered Italy has Rhodes and the Dodecaneses at this period.

  Not sure what the position will be with Hitler but could see Israel seeking to remove him and other top Nazis as well as probably seeking to get as many Jews from Europe as possible to 'safety' in Israel in the process seeking to boost their own security although they would have some interesting problems with adjusting those new people to the 1962 world.

  If the Soviet nuclear forces are that weak then I wonder if there would be a massive pile-into the former USSR.  You could see Mao seeking to regain lost territories in eastern Siberia - although I would expect the Soviets still have some tactical or shorter ranged nukes and I don't think the Chinese do yet.  You could see the US supporting an intervention in European Russia to remove Lenin and Co. given how much suffering and problems they caused in OTL.

[melanie]

A Balkans ISOT.
In 1878, "the Balkans" was also considered by this map to include Bulgaria, Romania and Ottoman ruled Europe.

So, an ASB puts the whole 1878 Balkans right after the Treaty of Berlin into 1978?

[Otto Kretschmer]

WI: German aircraft industry of 1918 given to Germany in 1910.

[shadow007]

Jun 9, 2022 17:38:12 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

WI: German aircraft industry of 1918 given to Germany in 1910.

-Germany easily wins WW1 as with their massive air advantage they easily break Belgium and invade France before the Brits get involve. Paris falls then the rest of France. Italy and Ottoman Empire quickly join the German-Austrian Central Powers. They devour British colonies and Russia's pathetic army

-Such a quick victory and German dominance prevents the Armenian Genocide as well as frighten America to let go of isolation. The German Airforce decimating British and French ships and armies would shock the US and Chinese.

-Aircraft technology will develop at a much faster pace. Expect Jet Aircraft to appear in the late-1920s.

-There is no WW2 and the 1917 Influenza kills a lot less people.

[shadow007]

WI: French Aircraft Industry of 1940 given to France in 1869

[miletus12]

Jun 14, 2022 6:32:13 GMT shadow007 said:

Jun 9, 2022 17:38:12 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

WI: German aircraft industry of 1918 given to Germany in 1910.

-Germany easily wins WW1 as with their massive air advantage they easily break Belgium and invade France before the Brits get involve. Paris falls then the rest of France. Italy and Ottoman Empire quickly join the German-Austrian Central Powers. They devour British colonies and Russia's pathetic army

-Such a quick victory and German dominance prevents the Armenian Genocide as well as frighten America to let go of isolation. The German Airforce decimating British and French ships and armies would shock the US and Chinese.

-Aircraft technology will develop at a much faster pace. Expect Jet Aircraft to appear in the late-1920s.

-There is no WW2 and the 1917 Influenza kills a lot less people.

With the introduction of civil air transport into service earlier and the widespread dissemination of aircraft technology with its spinoffs, one cannot be assured of no WWII. Kaiser Wilhelm II was not reliable or peaceable and was mentally unstable.  And that also describes Woodrow Wilson.   

The influenza out-break could be worse. German civil affairs administration was incompetent.  

The Three Pashas will ignore Berlin as they traditionally did. 

[miletus12]

Jun 14, 2022 6:36:28 GMT shadow007 said:

WI: French Aircraft Industry of 1940 given to France in 1869

Napoleon III tries again to subsume Mexico.

[shadow007]

[/quote]With the introduction of civil air transport into service earlier and the widespread dissemination of aircraft technology with its spinoffs, one cannot be assured of no WWII. Kaiser Wilhelm II was not reliable or peaceable and was mentally unstable.  And that also describes Woodrow Wilson.   

The influenza out-break could be worse. German civil affairs administration was incompetent.  

The Three Pashas will ignore Berlin as they traditionally did. [/quote]

-WW2 occured because several specific things happened. None of those things would occur in this Alternate Earth

-WW1 was a huge factor in spreading 1917 Influenza and taking away resources to fight it. Without a war it would be much more contained and cured much earlier

-Only reason Turks got away with it is because of WW1. Without the cover of World War, EVERYONE is going to notice it and punish the Ottomans severely

-Armenians, Assyrians and Greeks living in the Ottoman Empire are Christians. The Ottoman Turks are Muslims.

Every nation is going to spend hard cash to build their own Airforce after seeing Germany quickly win WW1 in just months thanks to its Planes

Humanity builds its first space colony in 1990

[miletus12]

Jun 15, 2022 17:10:33 GMT shadow007 said:

-WW2 occured because several specific things happened. None of those things would occur in this Alternate Earth

How can one prove this? Will not France, Britain and Russia seek revenge? If Brest Litvosk is a guide as to a German version of Versailles, even the Americans will seek revenge.

Jun 15, 2022 17:10:33 GMT shadow007 said:

-WW1 was a huge factor in spreading 1917 Influenza and taking away resources to fight it. Without a war it would be much more contained and cured much earlier.

It was not cured. What happened was that those who were strong enough to survive it, survived it and passed that herd immunity onto their newborn kids. That is a pure common descent mechanism at work in 1918. Only later in the 1940s did we begin to develop ways to "trick" herd immunity outcomes with mimic vaccines of a type that fooled human auto-immune systems into adapting to each new year's version of the flu.

Jun 15, 2022 17:10:33 GMT shadow007 said:

-Only reason Turks got away with it is because of WW1. Without the cover of World War, EVERYONE is going to notice it and punish the Ottomans severely

How? Study Gallipoli.

Jun 15, 2022 17:10:33 GMT shadow007 said:

-Armenians, Assyrians and Greeks living in the Ottoman Empire are Christians. The Ottoman Turks are Muslims.

True, so we should expect the Three Pashas to ignore the Kurds who are being genocided as well at this time? The Kurds are the "wrong" kind of Muslims. What I am trying to illustrate, here, is that the Turkish regime of that era is composed of some really sick depraved disgusting human beings. They mass murdered, and war or no war, they mass murdered because that was their policy. Proof? What sparked the Balkan Wars BEFORE WWI?

Jun 15, 2022 17:10:33 GMT shadow007 said:

Every nation is going to spend hard cash to build their own Airforce after seeing Germany quickly win WW1 in just months thanks to its Planes

Once Orville and Wilbur figure out 2 d flight stability and how to turn, it comes down to engine plants. One thing not mentioned in the ISOT is that NOBODY has the aluminum and high temperature steels to make a Jumo or a MB piston engine and lacks Inconel to make a jet engine. I figure PRATT and RR get there first and the Germans will be throttled by the early 30s.

Jun 15, 2022 17:10:33 GMT shadow007 said:

Humanity builds its first space colony in 1990

Why? What is the compelling need to make that enormous investment?

[lordroel]

Jun 14, 2022 21:04:15 GMT miletus12 said:

Jun 14, 2022 6:36:28 GMT shadow007 said:

WI: French Aircraft Industry of 1940 given to France in 1869

Napoleon III tries again to subsume Mexico.

He might want to wait a year as a certain neighbor is coming to visit his country.

[miletus12]

Jun 15, 2022 17:59:11 GMT lordroel said:

Jun 14, 2022 21:04:15 GMT miletus12 said:

Napoleon III tries again to subsume Mexico.

He might want to wait a year as a certain neighbor is coming to visit his country.

Even with an aircraft industry, I can see him making mistakes that will have his visitors doing this; 



At least in Mexico, he might have a chance against these "people";

 

[lordroel]

Jun 15, 2022 18:07:26 GMT miletus12 said:

Jun 15, 2022 17:59:11 GMT lordroel said:

He might want to wait a year as a certain neighbor is coming to visit his country.

Even with an aircraft industry, I can see him making mistakes that will have his visitors doing this; 



At least in Mexico, he might have a chance against these "people";

 

The United States was almost ready to move into Mexico to kick France out when France due Prussian threats left on their own, i see a new French push as a certain way to get a American-Prussian alliance from the ground.