The ISOT thread

[575]

Jul 27, 2023 6:23:50 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

Bulgaria from 1988 ISOT to June 1st 1941

Interesting - though I know little of Bulgaria I just did a swift read-up on Todor Zhivkov and Bulgaria. I also have the Military Balance of 1987-88 before me.

By this time June 1 1941 Bulgaria occupies parts of Greece and Yugoslavia -

and during 1940 had done the Craiova Treaty with Romania - with Nazi-German and Fascist Italy backing - upper right hand area ceded by Romania which wasn't reversed post-WWII.

This places Bulgaria in an interesting situation with a p-o'd Romania, Barbarossa jumping off in 21 days and an occupation Army of 3 Divisions in Yugoslavia and Greece - and Bulgarian irredenta fulfilled! Though still not carried all through in Greek Thrake as the Germans haven't finalized the treaty with Turkey (fear of Turkey disliking Bulgarian expansion) and Stalin's Sovietunion is allied to Nazi-Germany.

Britain have just finished evacuating Crete.

The ISOT will disrupt Barbarossa as the Germans will not like a Communist Bulgaria instead of a reluctant Royal Bulgaria.

I'd expect as hereabouts in 1988 that Bulgaria will have some 3 months supplies to run in isolation then it starts hurting.

Zhivkov had abandoned Stalinism post death of the man and had worked on "modernizing" the nation.

The wiki article cites a source saying Bulgaria manufactured 70% of all electronics in the Eastern Bloc - though I had the impression that the advanced stuff was copied in GDR from Western stuff.

Besides this I expect the Bulgarians to manufacture Kalashnikov's and ammunition on their own. Their Tanks will be a nasty experience for the Germans as the low tier is T-34, mainstay T-54/55 and then a small batch of 200 T-72's. Lots of Artillery - its the Soviet style Army.

An impressive Airforce by 1941 but soon I'd expect to be lacking spare parts to keep it flying.

Their Soviet make Nuclear Plant was not operating well with low output with serious energy shortages

The Germans will be building up for Barbarossa so is moving out of area with the Royal Bulgarian Army doing occupation and possibly reliable to Zhivkov if he let it do things on its own. Turkey will be disatisfied as there will be no Nazi-German - Turkish Agreement regarding Bulgaria administration in occupied Thrake but the Turks have also seen Britain evacuate Greece and Crete.

I guess Zhivkov's best bet is allying to Stalin - of course not openly initially but give the man a show of the World to be within the month if he doesn't. I really don't see Hitler tolerating a neutral Communist Bulgaria in the back even if it let him off occupying the major part of the Balkans.

Anyway it will be a totally different WWII.

[stevep]

Jul 27, 2023 9:19:11 GMT 575 said:

Jul 27, 2023 6:23:50 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

Bulgaria from 1988 ISOT to June 1st 1941

Interesting - though I know little of Bulgaria I just did a swift read-up on Todor Zhivkov and Bulgaria. I also have the Military Balance of 1987-88 before me.

By this time June 1 1941 Bulgaria occupies parts of Greece and Yugoslavia -

and during 1940 had done the Craiova Treaty with Romania - with Nazi-German and Fascist Italy backing - upper right hand area ceded by Romania which wasn't reversed post-WWII.

This places Bulgaria in an interesting situation with a p-o'd Romania, Barbarossa jumping off in 21 days and an occupation Army of 3 Divisions in Yugoslavia and Greece - and Bulgarian irredenta fulfilled! Though still not carried all through in Greek Thrake as the Germans haven't finalized the treaty with Turkey (fear of Turkey disliking Bulgarian expansion) and Stalin's Sovietunion is allied to Nazi-Germany.

Britain have just finished evacuating Crete.

The ISOT will disrupt Barbarossa as the Germans will not like a Communist Bulgaria instead of a reluctant Royal Bulgaria.

I'd expect as hereabouts in 1988 that Bulgaria will have some 3 months supplies to run in isolation then it starts hurting.

Zhivkov had abandoned Stalinism post death of the man and had worked on "modernizing" the nation.

The wiki article cites a source saying Bulgaria manufactured 70% of all electronics in the Eastern Bloc - though I had the impression that the advanced stuff was copied in GDR from Western stuff.

Besides this I expect the Bulgarians to manufacture Kalashnikov's and ammunition on their own. Their Tanks will be a nasty experience for the Germans as the low tier is T-34, mainstay T-54/55 and then a small batch of 200 T-72's. Lots of Artillery - its the Soviet style Army.

An impressive Airforce by 1941 but soon I'd expect to be lacking spare parts to keep it flying.

Their Soviet make Nuclear Plant was not operating well with low output with serious energy shortages

The Germans will be building up for Barbarossa so is moving out of area with the Royal Bulgarian Army doing occupation and possibly reliable to Zhivkov if he let it do things on its own. Turkey will be disatisfied as there will be no Nazi-German - Turkish Agreement regarding Bulgaria administration in occupied Thrake but the Turks have also seen Britain evacuate Greece and Crete.

I guess Zhivkov's best bet is allying to Stalin - of course not openly initially but give the man a show of the World to be within the month if he doesn't. I really don't see Hitler tolerating a neutral Communist Bulgaria in the back even if it let him off occupying the major part of the Balkans.

Anyway it will be a totally different WWII.

  Agreed.  This is going to be complex.  Your have the core Bulgaria which is now communist - although by 1988 how much support would that ideology actually have?  To its south and east there are chunks of occupied Greece and Yugoslavia that will not like what's happened in Bulgaria but might be unwilling to fight against their country.  Hitler will be enraged at what he sees as a Bulgarian betrayal where or not he understands quickly what has happened and that the new regime is technically communist.

  Bulgaria is going to be a tough nut to crack in the short term given its technological edge but would probably have limited staying power.  A lot of specialised equipment and materials such as oil will be serious problems as even if they can make allies in the down-time world those allies would have problems sending raw materials to them.  However how high a priority would this be for the Germans with the launch date for Barbarossa so close.  Will Hitler give up his 'crusade' against Soviet Russia to 'squash' the new state?  I suspect that he will seek to divert some forces to attack it but underestimate the potential power of this Bulgaria as he will not be willing to weaken the attack on the USSR much if at all.

  Getting allies could be awkward.  Stalin's paranoia, plus if he learns what happened to his legacy could mean he's very unwilling to trust Bulgaria or work in any significant way with it.  Plus even if he accepts Bulgaria as a communist state he's going to want to be the dominant power in any operation between the two.  Britain might be more friendly although its currently relatively weak and will have problems interacting with Bulgaria.  Ditto to a degree with a still neutral US.  Possibly some connections with UT diplomats from those countries assuming their brought along. 

  Anyway initial thoughts on the issue.

[575]

Jul 27, 2023 17:02:32 GMT stevep said:

Jul 27, 2023 9:19:11 GMT 575 said:

Interesting - though I know little of Bulgaria I just did a swift read-up on Todor Zhivkov and Bulgaria. I also have the Military Balance of 1987-88 before me.

By this time June 1 1941 Bulgaria occupies parts of Greece and Yugoslavia -

and during 1940 had done the Craiova Treaty with Romania - with Nazi-German and Fascist Italy backing - upper right hand area ceded by Romania which wasn't reversed post-WWII.

This places Bulgaria in an interesting situation with a p-o'd Romania, Barbarossa jumping off in 21 days and an occupation Army of 3 Divisions in Yugoslavia and Greece - and Bulgarian irredenta fulfilled! Though still not carried all through in Greek Thrake as the Germans haven't finalized the treaty with Turkey (fear of Turkey disliking Bulgarian expansion) and Stalin's Sovietunion is allied to Nazi-Germany.

Britain have just finished evacuating Crete.

The ISOT will disrupt Barbarossa as the Germans will not like a Communist Bulgaria instead of a reluctant Royal Bulgaria.

I'd expect as hereabouts in 1988 that Bulgaria will have some 3 months supplies to run in isolation then it starts hurting.

Zhivkov had abandoned Stalinism post death of the man and had worked on "modernizing" the nation.

The wiki article cites a source saying Bulgaria manufactured 70% of all electronics in the Eastern Bloc - though I had the impression that the advanced stuff was copied in GDR from Western stuff.

Besides this I expect the Bulgarians to manufacture Kalashnikov's and ammunition on their own. Their Tanks will be a nasty experience for the Germans as the low tier is T-34, mainstay T-54/55 and then a small batch of 200 T-72's. Lots of Artillery - its the Soviet style Army.

An impressive Airforce by 1941 but soon I'd expect to be lacking spare parts to keep it flying.

Their Soviet make Nuclear Plant was not operating well with low output with serious energy shortages

The Germans will be building up for Barbarossa so is moving out of area with the Royal Bulgarian Army doing occupation and possibly reliable to Zhivkov if he let it do things on its own. Turkey will be disatisfied as there will be no Nazi-German - Turkish Agreement regarding Bulgaria administration in occupied Thrake but the Turks have also seen Britain evacuate Greece and Crete.

I guess Zhivkov's best bet is allying to Stalin - of course not openly initially but give the man a show of the World to be within the month if he doesn't. I really don't see Hitler tolerating a neutral Communist Bulgaria in the back even if it let him off occupying the major part of the Balkans.

Anyway it will be a totally different WWII.

  Agreed.  This is going to be complex.  Your have the core Bulgaria which is now communist - although by 1988 how much support would that ideology actually have?  To its south and east there are chunks of occupied Greece and Yugoslavia that will not like what's happened in Bulgaria but might be unwilling to fight against their country.  Hitler will be enraged at what he sees as a Bulgarian betrayal where or not he understands quickly what has happened and that the new regime is technically communist.

  Bulgaria is going to be a tough nut to crack in the short term given its technological edge but would probably have limited staying power.  A lot of specialised equipment and materials such as oil will be serious problems as even if they can make allies in the down-time world those allies would have problems sending raw materials to them.  However how high a priority would this be for the Germans with the launch date for Barbarossa so close.  Will Hitler give up his 'crusade' against Soviet Russia to 'squash' the new state?  I suspect that he will seek to divert some forces to attack it but underestimate the potential power of this Bulgaria as he will not be willing to weaken the attack on the USSR much if at all.

  Getting allies could be awkward.  Stalin's paranoia, plus if he learns what happened to his legacy could mean he's very unwilling to trust Bulgaria or work in any significant way with it.  Plus even if he accepts Bulgaria as a communist state he's going to want to be the dominant power in any operation between the two.  Britain might be more friendly although its currently relatively weak and will have problems interacting with Bulgaria.  Ditto to a degree with a still neutral US.  Possibly some connections with UT diplomats from those countries assuming their brought along. 

  Anyway initial thoughts on the issue.

Agree that Stalin is a problem as he will probably need to see the Germans march into Sovietunion no matter what the Soviet ambassador to Bulgaria says. Following that I expect him to listen carefully! Though still paranoid.

There is a meeting of Hitler and Mussolini at Brenner Pass 2 June and negotiations initiated of German troops utilizing Finn territory for the attacks on the Sovietunion 3 June. There may be time for the Finn Ambassador to warn the Finn Government of joining up though the numbers of German troops may well make this illusory - so at least get as many concessions from the Germans as possible - to make the Finns able to quit out later.

The Turks may draw a breath of relief with no common border at the moment with Nazi-Pact countries; with little outlook to the British supplying them with modern weapons they may decide to sit very tight. Or possibly arrange some supply to Bulgaria of Soviet and later Mosul or Persian oil in return of modern blueprints of Artillery shells. Their tungsten may be of interest to Zhivkovs munitions manufacture. A 1988 Jet-trainer would do wonders for their Airforce as would a T-55 for their Army but building the stuff. A BTR-60 APC should be within reach. Though setting up factories training staff and workers will all be time consuming - but they'll be informed of possible events.

The British Ambassador may be hesitant to tell Churchill to not press Battleaxe into jumping off - and continue build-up against Rommel.

Zhivkov seems to have been a hardline Stalinist at outset and even with the changed perception in the Soviet Block during the late 80's I don't see him making a deal with Hitler. Though with the German troops far away - though a lot in Romania - he may opt that. Don't expect the FGR or GDR Ambassadors to help out Hitler here.

If Hitler decide to go ahead with Barbarossa on time Stalin will realize the Ambassador to Sofia and the Bulgarians were telling the truth though he may still be paranoid about their motives. And demand an offensive into Romania to take off pressure. Which the Bulgarians won't like till they have a steady oil supply and other stuff to keep their country running and anyway they will have a perception of how long they will be able to do any aggressive actions - on the defensive I'd expect them to last for some time.

USA is another matter; will it use information to prepare for Japanese aggression? I guess Roosevelt will but will he be able to get Congress on his side?

Now there is a working reactor in the World if not too well working but it is there.

[stevep]

Jul 28, 2023 8:39:59 GMT 575 said:

Jul 27, 2023 17:02:32 GMT stevep said:

  Agreed.  This is going to be complex.  Your have the core Bulgaria which is now communist - although by 1988 how much support would that ideology actually have?  To its south and east there are chunks of occupied Greece and Yugoslavia that will not like what's happened in Bulgaria but might be unwilling to fight against their country.  Hitler will be enraged at what he sees as a Bulgarian betrayal where or not he understands quickly what has happened and that the new regime is technically communist.

  Bulgaria is going to be a tough nut to crack in the short term given its technological edge but would probably have limited staying power.  A lot of specialised equipment and materials such as oil will be serious problems as even if they can make allies in the down-time world those allies would have problems sending raw materials to them.  However how high a priority would this be for the Germans with the launch date for Barbarossa so close.  Will Hitler give up his 'crusade' against Soviet Russia to 'squash' the new state?  I suspect that he will seek to divert some forces to attack it but underestimate the potential power of this Bulgaria as he will not be willing to weaken the attack on the USSR much if at all.

  Getting allies could be awkward.  Stalin's paranoia, plus if he learns what happened to his legacy could mean he's very unwilling to trust Bulgaria or work in any significant way with it.  Plus even if he accepts Bulgaria as a communist state he's going to want to be the dominant power in any operation between the two.  Britain might be more friendly although its currently relatively weak and will have problems interacting with Bulgaria.  Ditto to a degree with a still neutral US.  Possibly some connections with UT diplomats from those countries assuming their brought along. 

  Anyway initial thoughts on the issue.

Agree that Stalin is a problem as he will probably need to see the Germans march into Sovietunion no matter what the Soviet ambassador to Bulgaria says. Following that I expect him to listen carefully! Though still paranoid.

There is a meeting of Hitler and Mussolini at Brenner Pass 2 June and negotiations initiated of German troops utilizing Finn territory for the attacks on the Sovietunion 3 June. There may be time for the Finn Ambassador to warn the Finn Government of joining up though the numbers of German troops may well make this illusory - so at least get as many concessions from the Germans as possible - to make the Finns able to quit out later.

The Turks may draw a breath of relief with no common border at the moment with Nazi-Pact countries; with little outlook to the British supplying them with modern weapons they may decide to sit very tight. Or possibly arrange some supply to Bulgaria of Soviet and later Mosul or Persian oil in return of modern blueprints of Artillery shells. Their tungsten may be of interest to Zhivkovs munitions manufacture. A 1988 Jet-trainer would do wonders for their Airforce as would a T-55 for their Army but building the stuff. A BTR-60 APC should be within reach. Though setting up factories training staff and workers will all be time consuming - but they'll be informed of possible events.

The British Ambassador may be hesitant to tell Churchill to not press Battleaxe into jumping off - and continue build-up against Rommel.

Zhivkov seems to have been a hardline Stalinist at outset and even with the changed perception in the Soviet Block during the late 80's I don't see him making a deal with Hitler. Though with the German troops far away - though a lot in Romania - he may opt that. Don't expect the FGR or GDR Ambassadors to help out Hitler here.

If Hitler decide to go ahead with Barbarossa on time Stalin will realize the Ambassador to Sofia and the Bulgarians were telling the truth though he may still be paranoid about their motives. And demand an offensive into Romania to take off pressure. Which the Bulgarians won't like till they have a steady oil supply and other stuff to keep their country running and anyway they will have a perception of how long they will be able to do any aggressive actions - on the defensive I'd expect them to last for some time.

USA is another matter; will it use information to prepare for Japanese aggression? I guess Roosevelt will but will he be able to get Congress on his side?

Now there is a working reactor in the World if not too well working but it is there.

  Good points.

  With a communist nation on their NW as well as their NE border Turkey may be more worried about them that the Nazis at the moment.  Although their ambassador in Sofia could change that and as you say Turkey could do a deal with Bulgaria and the British to supply oil to the former in return for some tech and other knowledge.

  It would depend on the ambassador but I suspect that a lot of information will be passed to London with regards to many matters, including getting BattleAxe properly prepared but also the importance of the Atlantic battle and the threat in the far east.  How Britain and probably also the ANZ powers react to news of that disaster.  Also I wonder what Churchill's reaction will be to hearing that there is an Indian ambassador in Sofia and how the empire has gone.  Not to mention how British India reacts to news of the partition with all its bloodshed and the continued conflict between India and Pakistan.

  There will be a lot of other issues that come up.  Given the cold war and assorted hostilities between the Soviets and the west, especially the US relations between the two blocs could be chillier earlier and even assuming a Nazi attack that occupies much of the Soviet Union possibly the west reducing aid, especially once the latter is safe from collapse.  Possibly similarly how the west reacts to the fall of China to communism.  Along with assorted other news from the 'future' on many aspects of technology, politics, social development etc.

  I must admit I totally missed that the existence of reactors in Bulgaria will give a massive boost to nuclear programmes around the world.  Germany and Japan might learn from sympathizer's in the country but Britain, the US and probably the Soviets will also hear from their ambassadors and others of a lot of the details in developing nuclear weapons.  Depending on how much knowledge they might have in their embassies - both human and written/electronic - it could cut a year or so off the US nuclear programme especially.  You would see the British and Soviet projects also speeded up.  Possibly in this scenario the US, confident it its knowledge could refuse to work with Britain and even seek to block a British programme.

  Steve

[Otto Kretschmer]

Japan from 14 August 1945 ISOT to 1853 (right before Commodore Perry's arrival)

[miletus12]

France from 21 December 1958 to December 2, 1804. That should prove interesting.

[Otto Kretschmer]

Jul 30, 2023 21:08:44 GMT miletus12 said:

France from 21 December 1958 to December 2, 1804. That should prove interesting.

Britain is screwed.

[miletus12]

Jul 29, 2023 14:54:32 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

Japan from 14 August 1945 ISOT to 1853 (right before Commodore Perry's arrival)

Japan is screwed. 

[Otto Kretschmer]

USSR of 1950 to June 22 1941

[575]

Aug 4, 2023 7:22:27 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

USSR of 1950 to June 22 1941

Jetfighters but otherwise WWII equipment (still not Kalashnikov) and still rebuilding from WWII losses and devastation; oh well 4. Panzer Group and 18. Army lacking to German's as the Soviets have northern East Prussia and a 1941 Bulge around Bialystok.

However the Soviets still had some 300,000-400,000 troops in Poland, Petsamo Municipality are occupied by Soviet troops as are Karelia which probably rob the Finns of a major part of their Army, Hungary is occupied and the former Czech lands occupied by Hungary by 1941 is now Soviet territory though as the Hungarians didn't jump off till 1 July? it might not be all the devastating as they didn't declare war untill 27 June, some 30,000 troops in Romania, 1, 2, 4, Guard Tank Armies 3 Shock Army 8 Guard Army 49 Army 70 Army 16 Air Army (I presume the 1 Polish Army have left) in Soviet Occupation Zone of Germany, 1946 Soviet occupation of Austria amounted to 150,000 troops less 1950, add Soviet sizable troops in China/Manchuria and 50 IAD with MiG-15, Korea and Kuril Is.

Losing that many troops and having demobilized the Soviets won't be in good shape though the Germans will be very badly off in the North though the Soviets also have local resistance in the Baltics - Forest Brothers and such which seem to have amounted to a civil war by 1950 so some easing out of odds.

Not forgetting the Soviet Nuclear Programme they are still testing but could just switch to bombing Berlin and such as they have the Il-28 Beagle flying - early end to Nazi aspirations in the East. No Lend-Lease necessary. British are shocked as are the US though both freed up from fighting in Europe as it is soon Soviet occupied. Perhaps not even a War in the Pac as Uncle Joe may just go ahead and obliterated the Japanese as the Nuclear weapons go on-line production.

Orwell's 1984 no longer fiction!

[Otto Kretschmer]

USSR of 1980 ISOT to June 22 1941

[575]

Aug 4, 2023 9:03:36 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

USSR of 1980 ISOT to June 22 1941

Really why don't You just sit down and look up the alternatives instead of expecting the rest of us to do it - sorry I'm off.

[lordroel]

Aug 4, 2023 9:03:36 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

USSR of 1980 ISOT to June 22 1941

Lets not go down the years shall we, after 1945 every Soviet Union ISOT to the past will be a Soviet Wank.

[Otto Kretschmer]

Brazil from 2020 ISOT to August 1 1939.

How can it help win ww2? Which technologies would be most critical?

IMO just sending ATGMs to Poland and France would help immensely, so would SHORADs and MANPADs.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_modern_equipment_of_the_Brazilian_Army



Brazil is far from being a military superpower but it does have some interesting equipment including a large quantity of ATGMs and MANPADs (Igla) aa well as over 30 Gepard SHORADs. ASTROS is the most interesting thing in terms of artillery.

[gillan1220]

Aug 4, 2023 7:22:27 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

USSR of 1950 to June 22 1941

Aug 4, 2023 9:01:42 GMT 575 said:

USSR of 1950 to June 22 1941

Jetfighters but otherwise WWII equipment (still not Kalashnikov) and still rebuilding from WWII losses and devastation; oh well 4. Panzer Group and 18. Army lacking to German's as the Soviets have northern East Prussia and a 1941 Bulge around Bialystok.

However the Soviets still had some 300,000-400,000 troops in Poland, Petsamo Municipality are occupied by Soviet troops as are Karelia which probably rob the Finns of a major part of their Army, Hungary is occupied and the former Czech lands occupied by Hungary by 1941 is now Soviet territory though as the Hungarians didn't jump off till 1 July? it might not be all the devastating as they didn't declare war untill 27 June, some 30,000 troops in Romania, 1, 2, 4, Guard Tank Armies 3 Shock Army 8 Guard Army 49 Army 70 Army 16 Air Army (I presume the 1 Polish Army have left) in Soviet Occupation Zone of Germany, 1946 Soviet occupation of Austria amounted to 150,000 troops less 1950, add Soviet sizable troops in China/Manchuria and 50 IAD with MiG-15, Korea and Kuril Is.

Losing that many troops and having demobilized the Soviets won't be in good shape though the Germans will be very badly off in the North though the Soviets also have local resistance in the Baltics - Forest Brothers and such which seem to have amounted to a civil war by 1950 so some easing out of odds.

Not forgetting the Soviet Nuclear Programme they are still testing but could just switch to bombing Berlin and such as they have the Il-28 Beagle flying - early end to Nazi aspirations in the East. No Lend-Lease necessary. British are shocked as are the US though both freed up from fighting in Europe as it is soon Soviet occupied. Perhaps not even a War in the Pac as Uncle Joe may just go ahead and obliterated the Japanese as the Nuclear weapons go on-line production.

Orwell's 1984 no longer fiction!

But with 2.5 million Soviet troops on the Iron Curtain and masses of uptime weapons, the Germans will be at a disadvantage.

Stalin can even test the Tu-4 and drop the nuclear weapon on Berlin.

I wonder how the DT Allies would react to a much more powerful Soviet Union. The Americans will be shocked to know that the Soviets caught up with them with intercontinental bombers and nuclear weapons. Both the B-29 and the atomic bomb for the American side is still in development. I also wonder how will Boeing react to knowing the Tu-4 was copied from their design that is still being produced or in prototype stage.

However, as mighty as the USSR is, the U.S. Navy and the Royal Navy will still dominate the oceans.