WI: 2021 Cuba, Philippines, Puerto Rico and Guam are ISOTed to 1898 by TheSpaniard
Feb 11, 2022 11:45:53 GMT
lordroel likes this
Post by gillan1220 on Feb 11, 2022 11:45:53 GMT
Original thread here. The OP got banned unfortunately.
His scenario goes:
What would happen if Cuba, the Philippines, and Puerto Rico were ISOTed back in time from 2nd November 2021 to 1898? The ASB provides everything of course that those countries cannot produce on their own, or cannot be produced using 1898 technology so that mass deaths are avoided, same for COVID-19, everyone who got infected by it was magically cured, and hey, they even have internet! (Kind of, as good as it was when those countries/territories were just before the ISOT which was not amazing anyway).To make things more spicy, the ASB also decided on the following:
1) The countries/territories were not all ISOTed to the same date in 1898: Puerto Rico was ISOTed to May 7th, Cuba was ISOTed to June 10th, the Phillippinnes were ISOTed to April 29 and Guam was ISOTed to June 19.
2) Spanish and American citizens in those area, rather than being excluded, found themselves back in their hometown (with a rather modest financial compensation that enables them to start new lives but not enough to cause hyper-inflation).
3) An exact copy of 2021 Paris, including the citizens and modern infrastructure, appears right outside Madrid on Washington DC on December 10, 1898.
What happens from there? How will the Spanish American war play out, given that all areas were ISOTed to the day before the Americans attempted to capture them?
These were my replies in the previous thread:
His scenario goes:
What would happen if Cuba, the Philippines, and Puerto Rico were ISOTed back in time from 2nd November 2021 to 1898? The ASB provides everything of course that those countries cannot produce on their own, or cannot be produced using 1898 technology so that mass deaths are avoided, same for COVID-19, everyone who got infected by it was magically cured, and hey, they even have internet! (Kind of, as good as it was when those countries/territories were just before the ISOT which was not amazing anyway).To make things more spicy, the ASB also decided on the following:
1) The countries/territories were not all ISOTed to the same date in 1898: Puerto Rico was ISOTed to May 7th, Cuba was ISOTed to June 10th, the Phillippinnes were ISOTed to April 29 and Guam was ISOTed to June 19.
2) Spanish and American citizens in those area, rather than being excluded, found themselves back in their hometown (with a rather modest financial compensation that enables them to start new lives but not enough to cause hyper-inflation).
3) An exact copy of 2021 Paris, including the citizens and modern infrastructure, appears right outside Madrid on Washington DC on December 10, 1898.
What happens from there? How will the Spanish American war play out, given that all areas were ISOTed to the day before the Americans attempted to capture them?
These were my replies in the previous thread:
November 3, 2021:
For once, the Philippine Navy will be undisputed most powerful Navy in the world at this period. Two missile armed frigates is definitely gonna change the game.
For once, the Philippine Navy will be undisputed most powerful Navy in the world at this period. Two missile armed frigates is definitely gonna change the game.
November 3, 2021:
Even in 2015, the Philippines will still have the strongest navy. Those three Gregorio del Pilar-class offshore patrol vessels would still pack a punch with their Mk13 naval guns and Oto Melaras. It may not have missiles but it does not need to, not especially against the early iron boats the great powers have.
The Tarlac-class SSVs only arrived in 2016-2017 while the Jose Rizal-class frigates only arrived in 2020-2021.
Even in 2015, the Philippines will still have the strongest navy. Those three Gregorio del Pilar-class offshore patrol vessels would still pack a punch with their Mk13 naval guns and Oto Melaras. It may not have missiles but it does not need to, not especially against the early iron boats the great powers have.
The Tarlac-class SSVs only arrived in 2016-2017 while the Jose Rizal-class frigates only arrived in 2020-2021.
1. I could see the BRP Jose Rizal, BRP Antonio Luna, BRP Gregorio del Pilar, BRP Ramon Alcaraz, the BRP Andres Bonifacio, the BRP Tarlac, and BRP Davao del Sur form the defenses of Manila Bay. Those would no doubt outmatch any light cruiser the USN of 1898 had at this period. Or alternatively, the Philippine Air Force can use its OV-10 Broncos, FA-50s, SF-260s, A-29 Super Tucanos, AW-109s, MD-520s, and its pair of AH-1 Cobras to rain hell on any naval forces attempting to enter the Bay. Since machine guns weren't in use aboard naval ships (since there is no need for AA guns as planes didn't exist), there is no defense against an air attack.
The interesting question is how would the U.S. Embassy of 2021 try to convince Dewey to stop the assault on Manila Bay. Keep in mind the U.S. Embassy is just in front of the Bay.
2. Is this 1898 Guam? What would happen to the USN subs, B-52s, B-2s, and B-1s in the island?
3. Ironically as what Aguinaldo and Jose Rizal wanted. Japan did try to send 1,000 Murata rifles to the Philippines. Now every great power would want a piece of an M16 or a R4A3 rifle.
Agreed that even with air travel possible for the Philippines, it's still useless that airport don't exist. Also likely all the radars and GPS that weren't taken by the ISOT. I too wonder how the Wright Brothers will react seeing a jet liner or a jet plane while the first airplane has yet to take off.
To my knowledge, the AFP does not operate tanks. The last M41 Walker Bulldogs were retired in the 1980s while the Sabrah light tanks from Israel have yet to be delivered as of this writing. The closest to a "tank" this uptime Philippines has is the M113 with the 25 mm Bushmaster cannon, the LAV-300, and the AIFV.
Perhaps this might interest the British on how develop tanks by the 1910s?
4. Cuba's economy will go down the drain now that DT Russia isn't the Russian Federation that is supporting them in OTL. I guess what Cuba can do here is use its coastal-defense navy and aging air force (which is a powerful force to contend with against 1898 forces) to warn the United States NOT to land in Cuba. If Gitmo wasn't ISOTed, then the Cubans can reclaim it.
The interesting question is how would the U.S. Embassy of 2021 try to convince Dewey to stop the assault on Manila Bay. Keep in mind the U.S. Embassy is just in front of the Bay.
2. Is this 1898 Guam? What would happen to the USN subs, B-52s, B-2s, and B-1s in the island?
3. Ironically as what Aguinaldo and Jose Rizal wanted. Japan did try to send 1,000 Murata rifles to the Philippines. Now every great power would want a piece of an M16 or a R4A3 rifle.
Agreed that even with air travel possible for the Philippines, it's still useless that airport don't exist. Also likely all the radars and GPS that weren't taken by the ISOT. I too wonder how the Wright Brothers will react seeing a jet liner or a jet plane while the first airplane has yet to take off.
To my knowledge, the AFP does not operate tanks. The last M41 Walker Bulldogs were retired in the 1980s while the Sabrah light tanks from Israel have yet to be delivered as of this writing. The closest to a "tank" this uptime Philippines has is the M113 with the 25 mm Bushmaster cannon, the LAV-300, and the AIFV.
Perhaps this might interest the British on how develop tanks by the 1910s?
4. Cuba's economy will go down the drain now that DT Russia isn't the Russian Federation that is supporting them in OTL. I guess what Cuba can do here is use its coastal-defense navy and aging air force (which is a powerful force to contend with against 1898 forces) to warn the United States NOT to land in Cuba. If Gitmo wasn't ISOTed, then the Cubans can reclaim it.
November 4, 2021:
There is no ambassador currently. It's the charges de affaires who we just had recenltly replaced the previous one a few months back.
There's a few U.S. military personnel here such as the military attache, embassy marines, and JUSMAG personnel in Fort Bonifacio.
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Yeah, everyone would want an M16 and an M4A1/R4A3. Plus the Philippines still has surplus M1 Garands, M1 Carbines, Thompsons, Greasers, Uzis, Galils, and M14 rifles.
There's one Type 89 I-Go static display in Villa Escudero.
Perhaps the Japanese would want to observe this and develop their tanks much earlier.
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If I remember correctly, the C-Star anti-ship missiles would be delivered this month November 2021 with the rest coming in 2022.
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Even a V-150 or a GKN Simba with .50 caliber or an M113 with a minigun is enough to deal with infantry. There are no need for tanks for the AFP, or at least not yet.
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Now that the Philippines can claim the SCS but it will put them in a dispute with France, which claims the SCS as part of the French Indochina.
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The AFP can at least hasten DEI independence earlier and make it an economic ally. But it would put the Philippines in confrontation with the Netherlands.
There is no ambassador currently. It's the charges de affaires who we just had recenltly replaced the previous one a few months back.
There's a few U.S. military personnel here such as the military attache, embassy marines, and JUSMAG personnel in Fort Bonifacio.
-----
Yeah, everyone would want an M16 and an M4A1/R4A3. Plus the Philippines still has surplus M1 Garands, M1 Carbines, Thompsons, Greasers, Uzis, Galils, and M14 rifles.
There's one Type 89 I-Go static display in Villa Escudero.
Perhaps the Japanese would want to observe this and develop their tanks much earlier.
-----
If I remember correctly, the C-Star anti-ship missiles would be delivered this month November 2021 with the rest coming in 2022.
-----
Even a V-150 or a GKN Simba with .50 caliber or an M113 with a minigun is enough to deal with infantry. There are no need for tanks for the AFP, or at least not yet.
-----
Now that the Philippines can claim the SCS but it will put them in a dispute with France, which claims the SCS as part of the French Indochina.
----
The AFP can at least hasten DEI independence earlier and make it an economic ally. But it would put the Philippines in confrontation with the Netherlands.
Even with the advanced tech the AFP has including two Tarlac-class SSVs, it's still not capable of seizing Hawaii. It has no experience in conducting long-range amphibious warfare and has no replinishment oilers do such.
The distance from the Philippines to Hawaii is 8,763 km. Usually when the Philippine Navy sends some ships to RIMPAC, said ships make stops in Micronesia and the Marshall Islands but in this DT world, there is no fuel for these ships.
But speaking of seizing Hawaii, there will be jokes/memes about how the Philippines will expand to include the Marianas, Miconesia, and the Marshall Islands.
(Comic from 2015)
The distance from the Philippines to Hawaii is 8,763 km. Usually when the Philippine Navy sends some ships to RIMPAC, said ships make stops in Micronesia and the Marshall Islands but in this DT world, there is no fuel for these ships.
But speaking of seizing Hawaii, there will be jokes/memes about how the Philippines will expand to include the Marianas, Miconesia, and the Marshall Islands.
(Comic from 2015)
Oh so every foreigner in the Philippines was ISOTed back to their respective countries.
I'm not sure if blueprints for the HOWA Type 89 or even the newer Type 20 are available. Only photos from public domain is available. Anything armored would be too advanced for this 1898.
What the Philippines can sell though is blueprints for the Garands, Carbines, Grease Guns, Thompsons, M16s, and M14s. Remember too that illegal gunsmiths proliferate in Danao, Cebu which may also be sold.
I'm not sure if blueprints for the HOWA Type 89 or even the newer Type 20 are available. Only photos from public domain is available. Anything armored would be too advanced for this 1898.
What the Philippines can sell though is blueprints for the Garands, Carbines, Grease Guns, Thompsons, M16s, and M14s. Remember too that illegal gunsmiths proliferate in Danao, Cebu which may also be sold.
Well even with the 2021 Philippines, China will still prove to be a hell to control with. A very big country and millions of people. 2021 Philippines isn't equip for trying to do some expeditionary warfare in Qing China.
Ah one thing the Philippines can have is exert control during the 1900 Boxer Rebellion and probably establish an outpost in the Shanghai International Settlement.
