WI: Operation Compass extended?

[575]

Lt.Col. Thomson, US Army, wrote 2002 that Churchill 11. February 1941 had decided to honor the Greek call for support. As the outcome of this decision General O'Conner commanding the Western Desert Force of 7. Armoured and 6. Australian Infantry Division was ordered to halt his advance at El Agheila which had been reached on the 7. February 1941.
However by 20. February Churchill had developed doubts about the Greek venture; however he didn't alter his 11. February decision but sent a cable leaving the decision to the men in area – Generals Dill and Wawell decided to go to Greece.
But then the Greek reversal on shortening their front on 25. February could have been another moment to rethink the Greek expedition.

POD the British leadership – PM Churchill or Generals Dill and Wawell decide 20. February but no later than 25. February to abandon supporten Greece and Wawell give O'Conner the go for the total defeat of the Italians in Libya.

[stevep]

Apr 1, 2022 8:30:08 GMT 575 said:

Lt.Col. Thomson, US Army, wrote 2002 that Churchill 11. February 1941 had decided to honor the Greek call for support. As the outcome of this decision General O'Conner commanding the Western Desert Force of 7. Armoured and 6. Australian Infantry Division was ordered to halt his advance at El Agheila which had been reached on the 7. February 1941.
However by 20. February Churchill had developed doubts about the Greek venture; however he didn't alter his 11. February decision but sent a cable leaving the decision to the men in area – Generals Dill and Wawell decided to go to Greece.
But then the Greek reversal on shortening their front on 25. February could have been another moment to rethink the Greek expedition.

POD the British leadership – PM Churchill or Generals Dill and Wawell decide 20. February but no later than 25. February to abandon supporten Greece and Wawell give O'Conner the go for the total defeat of the Italians in Libya.

  Its one of my favourite WWII PoDs.  There are some questions about whether Wavell and O'Connor can reach Tripoli simply due to logistical reasons.  Its a hell of a long way with limited ports so your got to advance a large distance with your supply hub back in Alexandria.  Plus after their off road movement through rough terrain to intercept the retreating Italians at Operation_Compass#Battle_of_Beda_Fomm the 7th Armoured Div had knackered a lot of their equipment.  It could be that without direct British intervention in Greece Hitler decides to only intervene there and that Italian N Africa can be left to its fate to allow forces to be concentrated for Barbarossa earlier.  [Although the weather there could minimise the impact of that for the Germans.]

  One other possible butterfly here.  The initial operations were carried out by 7th Arm and the 4th Indian Division but after the initial battles to destroy the Italian frontier camps there was a delay of several weeks because Churchill had the experienced 4th Indian Div sent to join operations against the Italians in Italian E Africa.  It was replaced by the recently arrived 6th Australia but it took a while to bring that up to the front line and also get the new unit some familiarity in desert operations.  If you avoid this then its possible that the latter stages of the historical operation could be done quicker and that might make possible latter stages more successful.

  If British forces can capture Tripoli and clear the Axis from N Africa - and assuming that at some later stage Hitler doesn't strong-arm Vichy to allow landings in Tunisia although that might backfire for him then that drastically changes things in the allies and especially Britain's favour.  We avoid the heavy continued losses, especially land and naval of operations in the Med.  For instance probably no evacuation from Greece or Crete and much less pressure on Malta - as its easier to support and no longer as crucial for the Italians would save a lot of naval loses when the RN was heavily overstretched.  Some of this going to the Atlantic could ease the pressure there against the U-boats.  Similarly without the continued heavy land losses Britain has a chance to sort out its military equipment, especially in tank design for instance.  Its possible that there would be more reinforcement to Malaya as well which could drastically alter the war in the Pacific assuming that it still starts as OTL.

  Of course there are counter factors.  The desert war did teach lessons for the army and also got the RAF some very valuable experience in ground support of the army which was useful later in Italy and NW Europe.  Its possible that an extra week or two for Germany in 1941 might have been enough for a Soviet collapse to be triggered, then or later.  Also the resources released for Britain might have ended up lost due to further commitments to say the strategic bomber offensive before there was suitable technology for that to be effective.  Plus there could be other butterflies in the Far East/Pacific war, such as for instance Japan gambling on not attacking the US as it drives south.

  However there are massive potential gains for the allies in an early end to the war in N Africa.

[575]

I think that the switch 4. Indian / 6. Oz Divisions would make for BOTH Compass and Greece - the latter of course still becoming an honorably lost cause but Britain did honor the call for support.
However regarding 4. Indian Division if as some British claim ("On their shoulders" and mentioned in the Wiki of Compass at least) Wawell could have done better. As I understand he was the head Strategist at least in the Middle East and should have recognized the Strategic opportunity that arose from the defeat of 10. Italian Army in Cyrenaika. Let 4. Indian continue as part of WDF and let 6. Oz train for Sudan. Go for the great prize.

I guess it would be a thight run for O'Conner as 7. Armoured seemed really ground down from the fighting though with elements of 2. Armoured arriving and all battlefield leftovers and captured Tanks they may have put up a decent force for the final dash at Tripolis. Everybody seem to agree that the Italians had no more fighting in them untill the arrival of real German troops.

Not switching the Infantry Divisions may have bought O'Conner 1-2 weeks time before the arrival of German troops.
Looking up the timetable the Italians seem to have asked for support on 19. December 1940 with Hitler Directive no 22 signed 11. January 1941 leading to advance German elements landing at Tripolis 11. February 1941, Rommel on the 12., and Anti-Tank and Recce Battalions on the 14. No Panzers till 8.-10. March though an 88mm AA unit arrived 2. March. Fliegerkorps X was only operational from 7. January 1941.

O'Conner reached El Agheila 8. February; still having 4. Indian he may arrive a week earlier. Lets give him a week to prepare for the final dash to Tripolis so when German early units arrive he is already half way to Tripolis from El Agheila - if the equipment last. But then it is only two German Battalions that is barring the road to Tripolis..

If the British are able to clear the Axis out of Africa by late February or early March depending on start time of 2. phase of Operation Compass what will the Vichy French in North Africa do? Having seen the Italians and a handfull of Germans defeated would they be recruited to the Free French Cause - whatever their liking of de Gaulle?
The French Army in North Africa commanded by General Noguès consisting of 19. Corps HQ, 6. DLC Motorized Cavalry Division with a mechanized Brigade and a Cavalry one, four Cavalry Brigades, two Foreign Legion Cavalry Regiments, two Tank Groups one of two Battalions of Char D-1, one of two Battalions of Ft-17 and two Coy's of R-35, another FT-17 battalion and a Motorized Light Infantry Battalion of regulars; the Infantry Divisions being 6 A-reserve/young reservist's and 6 B-reserve/older reservist's Static Divs.
More important was the quite decent Air and Navy Airforces of 200 modern fighter A/C, 200 modern bomber A/C, 26 Torpedobombers and 90 mainly modern recce A/C. Just neutralizing the French would be needed if they don't switch and could be even more bloody than Syria. Better let the various French talk themselves to death though General Noguès had been adverse to the Armistige with Germany.
That would make some addition to the Allied cause in North Africa and deprive Syria of tanks and A/C sent later which came from NA! Even if the French don't join the Allies in NA there won't be reinforcements for Syria!

In the Middle East the British may have retained much more control so perhaps no Rashid Ali rebellion in Iraq. Operation Exporter is already out of play.

If the British don't support Greece then there may be no Mercury - landing on Crete leaving Hitler with an intact Airmobile capability that could be sent to Tunesia to pave the way for heavier forces. Though that may bring the French in NA into the Allied camp early. I see that as a greater detriment to Germany.

Without North Africa Hitler would also have another two Panzer Divisions for the Balkans and Barbarossa which could do much harm in Russia.

The British would be deprived of much experience in fighting the Germans if not in NA where else? as would the RAF as you point to.

Edit: had to trawl notes of French Army in North Africa.

[melanie]

If there is a Soviet collapse as a resulr of this POD, will Hitler break out the champagne?

[575]

Apr 2, 2022 11:15:31 GMT melanie said:

If there is a Soviet collapse as a resulr of this POD, will Hitler break out the champagne?

Its a possible though I await more discussing before breaking out the Champagne; I don't see its a given. Of course two more Panzer Divisions is a substantial addition but the Red Army was well off building Infantry Divisions.

[melanie]

Yeah. Most likely, Germany will survive long enough to be nuked.

[stevep]

Apr 2, 2022 12:19:02 GMT melanie said:

Yeah. Most likely, Germany will survive long enough to be nuked.

575,melanie,

  If it wins in Russia probably assuming that Britain and/or the US doesn't see Europe as a lost cause.

  If Russia still survives but somewhat weaker then the war in Europe and probably also with Japan ends earlier than OTL, quite possibly before nukes become available.  Which won't necessarily be a good thing for Japan or the US.

  Assuming that N Africa stays Vichy and Hitler giving Russia top priority Britain is in a much better position and can use forces much more efficiently.  [Whether they will would be the big issue].  Once Barbarossa starts and assuming it fails as OTL but with somewhat more initial success I can't see him sparing the forces for an amphibious assault on Tunisia which I agree with 575 would very likely go badly for them.  Possibly Leningrad falls during the winter which would be a morale blow for the Soviets and free up some German and Finnish forces but if the Soviets survive that 1st year their going to be very difficult to crush. 

  The worst case scenario for the Germans is the extra forces available get them into western Moscow before winter fully hits.  In that case you could well have a larger and earlier Stalingrad with a hell of a lot of forces lost on both sides but the Soviets have more men and a big urban area negates most of the quality edge.  With Moscow being a matter of prestige for both leaders you could see much of Army Group Central consumed in the fighting and a probable following encirclement of the survivors of those forces in the city.  Manpower losses in this case would be considerably greater than OTL Stalingrad and Germany would never really recover from that.

  If that doesn't happen what occurs in the Far East?  Some reinforcement of Malaya and related areas, which should be very possible with the great reduction of losses in N Africa and the Med, coupled with forces, some with experience, being built up in say Egypt for some operation there available to be switched across the  Indian Ocean it should be possible to hold the Japanese in Malaya and say Java, protecting Sumatra in the process.  Possibly also safeguard Burma as well. 

  Those changes would greatly shorten the war in the Far East and Pacific.  Japan would have few of the resources they went to war to gain and what they would have would be very much on the front line.  Also if Burma is secured that not only keeps its resources available for the allies rather than the Japanese but also allows far easier and greater supplies to China. 

  Again assuming that Germany still declares war on the US or its able to do so to Germany shortly after the Japanese attacks and that decisions aren't greatly different from OTL.  [Although of course heavy fighting in SE Asia rather than continued conflicts in N Africa will change deployments somewhat].  If FNA doesn't switch to the allies or be occupied by then an attack into Italy is markedly more difficult but could have options in the Balkans or an earlier attack on N France - although in turn that could be very risky in 43 and especially without the experience from N Africa/Italy for both British and Americans.

[575]

We need to get back to the continuation of Operation Compass as I've been doing some homework that potentially makes a British victory very interesting.

1) O'Conner retains control of 4. Indian Division and is to receive replacements from 2. Armoured Division around early February. He jumps off El Aghila late January/ early February 1941 moving against a close to non-existent Italian adversary.
First German units are still to arrive about 14. February giving O'Conner a two week lead; thus when the Germans arrive they will be thrown into a blocking position somewhere east of Tripolis. Those German units are a Recce and an Anti-Tank Battalion (37mm guns NOT 88's). The British should be able to defeat that even if Fliegerkorps X is able to do some damage but that have only been operational in area for the past month - since 7. January.

2) By late February 1941 O'Conner is on the border with Tunesia/ Vichy French territory.
The French commander General Noguès had been adverse to the Armistige with Germany so he may now have a much changed outlook to the situation.

The Germans are already beginning to draw up troops for Marita-Mercury Operation in the Balkans so I don't see a large change around of forces. Hitler viewed the North Africa a very periphery area.

3) However Hitler had 12. November 1940 decided that Gibraltar was the key to securing North Africa and then by April 1941 with the Rashid Ali revolt demanded airbases in Syria to support that. Here there is probably no Rashid Ali revolt as there is nobody in North Africa to defeat the British and chase them back to Egypt! And no Operation Exporter - Syria.

3) By 10. December 1940 Hitler had issued Directive 19 to occupy Vichy France should the colonies rebel. Well if General Noguès decide to switch sides Hitler will have to A occupy Vichy, B convince Franco that opening his border to a German Army is a good idea for letting it assault Gibraltar. (That one was discussed here a week or two ago..) Other discussions have had peoples agree to full occupation of France would cost Germany an additional 100,000 troops!

4) Even if the British does support Greece that defeat is still some weeks into the future; and Germany will lose a lot of Paratroops in Crete thus no drop into Tunesia. If Britain don't support Greece no defeat but of course talk of Britain not supporting others and a Aircapability retained by the Germans as its not gonna be wasted in Crete but could be so in Tunesia.

5) Germany having potentially not two Panzer Division equivalents tied down in North Africa but have to decide if they are going to Spain, Operation Felix, which we recently agreed was a German no-win or the Balkans to shorten Marita-Mercury to allow a slightly earlier go at the Soviets or some other sillyness once Gibraltar fails like still wanting to make the great encirclement of the Soviets via the Middle East and Turkey!!! And use 100,000 troops to occupy France doesn't bode well for Barbarossa.

[stevep]

Apr 2, 2022 14:33:11 GMT 575 said:

We need to get back to the continuation of Operation Compass as I've been doing some homework that potentially makes a British victory very interesting.

1) O'Conner retains control of 4. Indian Division and is to receive replacements from 2. Armoured Division around early February. He jumps off El Aghila late January/ early February 1941 moving against a close to non-existent Italian adversary.
First German units are still to arrive about 14. February giving O'Conner a two week lead; thus when the Germans arrive they will be thrown into a blocking position somewhere east of Tripolis. Those German units are a Recce and an Anti-Tank Battalion (37mm guns NOT 88's). The British should be able to defeat that even if Fliegerkorps X is able to do some damage but that have only been operational in area for the past month - since 7. January.

2) By late February 1941 O'Conner is on the border with Tunesia/ Vichy French territory.
The French commander General Noguès had been adverse to the Armistige with Germany so he may now have a much changed outlook to the situation.

The Germans are already beginning to draw up troops for Marita-Mercury Operation in the Balkans so I don't see a large change around of forces. Hitler viewed the North Africa a very periphery area.

3) However Hitler had 12. November 1940 decided that Gibraltar was the key to securing North Africa and then by April 1941 with the Rashid Ali revolt demanded airbases in Syria to support that. Here there is probably no Rashid Ali revolt as there is nobody in North Africa to defeat the British and chase them back to Egypt! And no Operation Exporter - Syria.

3) By 10. December 1940 Hitler had issued Directive 19 to occupy Vichy France should the colonies rebel. Well if General Noguès decide to switch sides Hitler will have to A occupy Vichy, B convince Franco that opening his border to a German Army is a good idea for letting it assault Gibraltar. (That one was discussed here a week or two ago..) Other discussions have had peoples agree to full occupation of France would cost Germany an additional 100,000 troops!

4) Even if the British does support Greece that defeat is still some weeks into the future; and Germany will lose a lot of Paratroops in Crete thus no drop into Tunesia. If Britain don't support Greece no defeat but of course talk of Britain not supporting others and a Aircapability retained by the Germans as its not gonna be wasted in Crete but could be so in Tunesia.

5) Germany having potentially not two Panzer Division equivalents tied down in North Africa but have to decide if they are going to Spain, Operation Felix, which we recently agreed was a German no-win or the Balkans to shorten Marita-Mercury to allow a slightly earlier go at the Soviets or some other sillyness once Gibraltar fails like still wanting to make the great encirclement of the Soviets via the Middle East and Turkey!!! And use 100,000 troops to occupy France doesn't bode well for Barbarossa.

  575,

  Sounds very interesting.  If Noguès managed to bring FNA into the allied camp then you get questions of what happens to the French fleet and also other French colonies.  Senegal for instance had as well as its own resources a lot of the French gold there plus an admittedly incomplete BB.

  I would see Hitler responding by occupying Vichy, which would probably mean a flood of French colonies joining the allies.  This could be difficult for French Somalia as its totally surrounded by Italian territory unless Britain has also started to liberate Italian E Africa.  However the rest could switch fairly easily. 

  The awkward one would be FIC which is already partly occupied by Japan.  What happens if they try and join the allies and the Japanese occupy the south.  That could lead to Japan joining the Axis almost immediately and Britain suffering some serious problems although Japan isn't ready to drive south at this point.  The US reaction would be important here.  Not to mention when Germany attacks the USSR what happens with Japan and the Soviets.  The latter won't want war with Japan at this point, especially since it would block US L-L via Vladivostok but Japan isn't really in a position to desire a war in the north either.

  The other point is if Italy has failed so miserably - needing help against Greece and being rapidly bundled out of Libya would Hitler, as well as needing to occupy France if FNA defects also start thinking about a need to bolster Italy?  Which would be another demand on Germany.

  I suspect that Franco, seeing the mess Italy has made and probably aware that Germany was going for a full scale attack on the Soviets would be at least as reluctant to join the Axis as he was in 1940.  This might change if the Germans win quickly - although that seems very unlikely - or Britain is really struggling in a war with Japan if that develops.  As such I think, at least in 1941, Spain is very unlikely to join the Axis.

  Steve

[575]

Cheers Steve,

It just dawned upon me that a British victory in NA would have serious implications. The majority of the large French Navy units were in Africa at this time; light units in Toulon.
Both French and Polish gold at Dakar - the Belgian hoard there would already have been sent back into German care. Dakar was also an important Navy base.

According to the Armistige Terms on France Germany kept interest in West and Equatorial Africa as well as French IndoChina - Italy had the rest.
I don't know if the Germans would try tell the Japanese to stay out of FIC though apart from the areas they controlled - to bar use of roads to China. Seems unlikely and opens the door to the Japanese occupying the south though strange things tend to happen in war..

East Africa Campaign commence on 19. January 1941 though ITTL may be delayed a week or two for the 6. Australian Divison to be operational. Even so the Italians had been deceived by the British to deploy troops to the Kenyan border but also begin evacuating British Somalia of which the deception indicated would be a main theatre of the British attack. French Somalia ought to be relatively safe.

The French NA changing sides may trigger the Germans to invade Vichy though it may also make the French Navy in NA try cross the Med for Toulon; unless they are aware of the German operation of course. French NA will of course be instrumental in the French colonies changing sides.

German response? Franco will not allow the Germans to attack Gibraltar though will the Germans initiate Operation Felix? As this is just a month prior to Marita-Mercury the Germans will have to make their minds up about Gibraltar and NA. Vichy is already being occupied with precious numbers of German troops needed in Spain or Balkans and either will need rebuilding before an invasion of Sovietunion.
Besides Fliegerkorps X I don't really see the German propping the Italians much up.

FIC is the real problem. Would the Japanese be ready to occupy it? Thing is since October 1940 FIC have been at war with Thailand/Siam and the Japanese decided to interfere when the French seemed to possibly gain the upper hand and mediate a ceasefire by 28. January 1941.
Japan wanted to direct both parties though in case of a British victory in NA Thailand may seek British support against the Japanese. FIC would know that it was on its own.
Have to give this more thought.

[stevep]

   575

   If FNA goes allied then while he would like to go into Spain I don't think Hitler will be able to do so because he really, really wants to attack the Soviets ASAP.  He's already been using the excuse that Britain is continuing the war because its relying on Soviet support at some stage and IF captured he would gain a lot of raw materials, provided the Germans could efficiently exploit them.  I can't see him being willing to delay past later spring/early summer 41, especially if he has some idea how heavily the Red Army is reequipping. 

  If FNA went allied which would mean allied control of Tunisia especially then the obvious next step for them would be Sicily.  It would actually take some time given how stretched British resources are but its a viable target and sooner or later Hitler might have to think about it, although he would probably wait for the 'successful' conquest of the USSR this summer/autumn.

  If FIC was to try and join the allies then I suspect Japan will at least consider occupying the south - they already occupy the north.  How Britain responds to this I don't know.  It doesn't really have the forces to fight Japan as well as Germany and Italy but it may feel it has no choice and also we have Churchill in charge.  It would cause issues for both powers as well as the US.  I can't see Germany seeking to restrain Japan from doing this, especially if the colony has declared for the FF.  They didn't act OTL when either part of the colony were taken over by Japan despite Vichy being still in existence.  I suspect that Thailand would still feel obliged to favour Japan simply because their the immediate threat on the border while the Japanese OTL [and possibly even more of it here] gave the Thais territory from FIC.

  Gaining a lot of the French fleet, especially if its sailors would serve with the FF - calling them that for the moment although it could merge with other groups - would be a big gain.  Also without such heavy fighting in N Africa and the Med there is a lot less pressure on the RN and merchant marine.  Lighter units can be freed up to help against the U boats while supplies for forces in the region can be landed in Morocco and then shipped overland rather than having to be shipped around Africa.  It could actually be harder to get supplies such as oil from the Gulf to any front line as with the lack of a railway in Libya or western Egypt they would have to be shipped by sea and vulnerable to Axis air and sea attack so could see as much as practical come from the Atlantic.

  Steve

[melanie]

Despite what "The Big Hooter" (De Gaulle) and his acolytes claimed once the war was safely over, Vichy was, on paper at least, the legal government of France and the USA in OTL was *very* reluctant to abandon the Vichy-ists.

[simon darkshade]

Early victory in North Africa changes the whole war. Full stop.

It not only changes the scope of the logistical/shipping war by opening up the Med, but it cuts off a running sore of RN losses in 1941 and even 1942. It would remove a front where the Germans could be engaged on land, which is a detriment to experience, but an immense saving in money, men and equipment - the majority of the ~35,000 killed/220,000 casualties will not occur, nor the loss of ~2000 tanks. Both of these factors add up to the potential for Japan to be utterly stuffed in SE Asia, which then has a further flow on effect on men, money and munitions for elsewhere.

Germany will be bombed more heavily, but there will be a perceived need to be seen to be aiding the USSR against ze Germans; the numbers of troops diverted to the Western Desert and Balkans are minor enough in the Brobdignagian scale of the Eastern Front. What form will this take? In my view, most likely a descent upon Northern Norway. This would allow for a more efficacious flow of supplies via the Arctic and squeeze the U-Boat threat that little bit more.

There would still be an additional perceived need - take on/knock out Italy. I can see the logical towards neutralising Sicily in some fashion, particularly if FNA is 'friendly'.

Where does this ultimately flow in my view? A D-Day landing in 1943.

[melanie]

If there's a D-day landing in 1943, that is also a year before Anne Frank and the others are betrayed...

[575]

Apr 4, 2022 13:15:10 GMT stevep said:

   575

   If FNA goes allied then while he would like to go into Spain I don't think Hitler will be able to do so because he really, really wants to attack the Soviets ASAP.  He's already been using the excuse that Britain is continuing the war because its relying on Soviet support at some stage and IF captured he would gain a lot of raw materials, provided the Germans could efficiently exploit them.  I can't see him being willing to delay past later spring/early summer 41, especially if he has some idea how heavily the Red Army is reequipping. 

  If FNA went allied which would mean allied control of Tunisia especially then the obvious next step for them would be Sicily.  It would actually take some time given how stretched British resources are but its a viable target and sooner or later Hitler might have to think about it, although he would probably wait for the 'successful' conquest of the USSR this summer/autumn.

  If FIC was to try and join the allies then I suspect Japan will at least consider occupying the south - they already occupy the north.  How Britain responds to this I don't know.  It doesn't really have the forces to fight Japan as well as Germany and Italy but it may feel it has no choice and also we have Churchill in charge.  It would cause issues for both powers as well as the US.  I can't see Germany seeking to restrain Japan from doing this, especially if the colony has declared for the FF.  They didn't act OTL when either part of the colony were taken over by Japan despite Vichy being still in existence.  I suspect that Thailand would still feel obliged to favour Japan simply because their the immediate threat on the border while the Japanese OTL [and possibly even more of it here] gave the Thais territory from FIC.

  Gaining a lot of the French fleet, especially if its sailors would serve with the FF - calling them that for the moment although it could merge with other groups - would be a big gain.  Also without such heavy fighting in N Africa and the Med there is a lot less pressure on the RN and merchant marine.  Lighter units can be freed up to help against the U boats while supplies for forces in the region can be landed in Morocco and then shipped overland rather than having to be shipped around Africa.  It could actually be harder to get supplies such as oil from the Gulf to any front line as with the lack of a railway in Libya or western Egypt they would have to be shipped by sea and vulnerable to Axis air and sea attack so could see as much as practical come from the Atlantic.

  Steve

Steve

I looked up Fuhrer Directive 18 Gibraltar- regarding Gibraltar but really is toughts on how to manage before Barbarossa. Dated 12. November 1940. This is post the Italian attack on Egypt which is mentioned but also post the meeting of Hitler and Franco in Hendaye 23. October. This timeline suggest that the planning of Operation Felix - invasion of Spain to capture Gibraltar was nothing but a contingency plan. The Canaris mission to Spain envisioned in the Directive had been undertaken from 22. July 1940 and a meeting of Canaris and Franco. Canaris met on 7. December 1940 Franco who rejected participating in the war as he did 23. October 1940.

The Directive also outlined the Balkan campaign Marita-Mercury though the Italian call for support in the war against Greece only took place on 28. December 1940.

Even if Directive 20 on the execution of Marita-Mercury only was signed by Hitler 13. December 1940 the plan had been in place since 12. November 1940 though it don't detail occupation of Yugoslavia.

No I don't think a German go at Gibraltar through Spain is in the cards; if FNA rebels then Spain would be even less eager to join up for fear of losing its NA colonies and Atlantic possessions which would only reinforce the British.

As Hitlers roadmap (yes I know modern term..) is leading to Barbarossa as soon as possible anything else will be a distraction. The real stone in the shoe would be FNA rebellion which SHOULD bring Directive 19 - occupation of Vichy - into effect. Though avoiding a garrision of 100,000 German troops there is it going to happen?

The British Middle East Reserve would be freed once Italian East Africa is defeated by May 1941 the rest being mopping up till 27. November 1941.

IF FNA rebelling don't trigger Directive 19 occupation of Vichy there still shouldn't be a Rashid Ali rebellion and quiet in ME. Dentz French commander in Syria may waver back and forth as what to do; besides a relative large motorized force he don't have much to impede the British.

So if the Japanese decide to occupy the rest of FIC by the end of the FIC-Thai war ending late January 1941 the British does have a force to send there; maybe even into Burma to keep the Road open? That may disrupt some Japanese planning having to put more emphasis on Burma to close the Road.

With the US and others in light of the British success in NA few may like to give in to the Japanese except the FIC that have their warships cruising its waters post the FIC-Thai War. The situation may prompt the Japanese to an earlier decision to go south than 2. July 1941 and speed up preparations.

575