WI: No normalized relations between U.S. and Russia after Reagan

[kasumigenx]

What if U.S. never normalizes its relations with Russia but normalizes its relations with China, what if the policies of Dubya in favor of China were supported by the succeeding presidents? what would have happened to the U.S.

[gillan1220]

Then the Cold War against Russia continues. For the U.S. to continue normalizing relations with China, the POD needs be back where Gorby never becomes President and a hardliner takes it place. This in turn may butterfly Tiananmen Square and the revolutions in Eastern Europe.

[TheRomanSlayer]

Apr 27, 2022 20:33:21 GMT gillan1220 said:

Then the Cold War against Russia continues. For the U.S. to continue normalizing relations with China, the POD needs be back where Gorby never becomes President and a hardliner takes it place. This in turn may butterfly Tiananmen Square and the revolutions in Eastern Europe.

Grigory Romanov becomes the new leader of the Soviet Union, or Oleg Baklanov becomes leader. Alternatively, you could have Gorbachev's tenure as President end abruptly through any kind of political scandals. I had this segment covered in Rogue Generals with Yeltsin's fall from grace due to him showing up at a Politburo meeting under the influence of alcohol. 

[kasumigenx]

Biden and HRC have the same foreign policy as Bush which favors China and is hostile to Russian Interests, so if Obama dies prior to the 2012 elections or either Biden or HRC were elected in 2008 the relations with Russia would shatter in which Russians ban certain websites in the West like how China does now and it is China that unbans content from the west.

I think Ma would be successful in unifying Taiwan and China.

[gillan1220]

May 2, 2022 16:45:50 GMT kasumigenx said:

Biden and HRC have the same foreign policy as Bush which favors China and is hostile to Russian Interests, so if Obama dies prior to the 2012 elections or either Biden or HRC were elected in 2008 the relations with Russia would shatter in which Russians ban certain websites in the West like how China does now and it is China that unbans content from the west.

I think Ma would be successful in unifying Taiwan and China.

HRC critics have stated that U.S.-Russia relations would nosedive even lower than Obama had she won 2016.

Was Ma Jing-yu really that pro-PRC?

[kasumigenx]

May 2, 2022 18:16:54 GMT gillan1220 said:

May 2, 2022 16:45:50 GMT kasumigenx said:

Biden and HRC have the same foreign policy as Bush which favors China and is hostile to Russian Interests, so if Obama dies prior to the 2012 elections or either Biden or HRC were elected in 2008 the relations with Russia would shatter in which Russians ban certain websites in the West like how China does now and it is China that unbans content from the west.

I think Ma would be successful in unifying Taiwan and China.

HRC critics have stated that U.S.-Russia relations would nosedive even lower than Obama had she won 2016.

Was Ma Jing-yu really that pro-PRC?

Yes indeed.

[stevep]

May 2, 2022 16:45:50 GMT kasumigenx said:

Biden and HRC have the same foreign policy as Bush which favors China and is hostile to Russian Interests, so if Obama dies prior to the 2012 elections or either Biden or HRC were elected in 2008 the relations with Russia would shatter in which Russians ban certain websites in the West like how China does now and it is China that unbans content from the west.

I think Ma would be successful in unifying Taiwan and China.

  I don't know about that considering how much the US has moved to seeing China as its primary threat/opponent.  Its even been suggested this is a factor in Putin going so much more aggressive as he was feeling overshadowed by being ignored due to the US turn to the 'China challenge'.  [Basically think of him as similar to N Korea's twisted dynasty only with a lot more power and nukes.]

  If Clinton had been elected then relations with Russia would probably have soured because the pair don't like each other.  When Putin was 'playing' with the role of PM to get around the then limit on Presidential terms and Clinton was US Secretary of State they met a lot and it seems like he didn't like a woman standing up to him.  That would have compounded matters but a Clinton 2016 might have helped Ukraine earlier and more and definitely wouldn't have been pandering to Putin as Trump did.

  Getting this info from a BBC Radio 4 series on Putin, especially episode 8 which I heard earlier today. 

   Also I think part of the reason for Putin's growing aggressiveness in the past few years is a matter of how long he's been in power and also his knowledge that he may not have much longer and hence he's possibly both lashing out against the idea he's mortal and wishing to leave a 'legacy' of 'successful' expansion for Russia.

[kasumigenx]

May 3, 2022 14:05:15 GMT stevep said:

May 2, 2022 16:45:50 GMT kasumigenx said:

Biden and HRC have the same foreign policy as Bush which favors China and is hostile to Russian Interests, so if Obama dies prior to the 2012 elections or either Biden or HRC were elected in 2008 the relations with Russia would shatter in which Russians ban certain websites in the West like how China does now and it is China that unbans content from the west.

I think Ma would be successful in unifying Taiwan and China.

  I don't know about that considering how much the US has moved to seeing China as its primary threat/opponent.  Its even been suggested this is a factor in Putin going so much more aggressive as he was feeling overshadowed by being ignored due to the US turn to the 'China challenge'.  [Basically think of him as similar to N Korea's twisted dynasty only with a lot more power and nukes.]

  If Clinton had been elected then relations with Russia would probably have soured because the pair don't like each other.  When Putin was 'playing' with the role of PM to get around the then limit on Presidential terms and Clinton was US Secretary of State they met a lot and it seems like he didn't like a woman standing up to him.  That would have compounded matters but a Clinton 2016 might have helped Ukraine earlier and more and definitely wouldn't have been pandering to Putin as Trump did.

  Getting this info from a BBC Radio 4 series on Putin, especially episode 8 which I heard earlier today. 

   Also I think part of the reason for Putin's growing aggressiveness in the past few years is a matter of how long he's been in power and also his knowledge that he may not have much longer and hence he's possibly both lashing out against the idea he's mortal and wishing to leave a 'legacy' of 'successful' expansion for Russia.

That was basically due to Obama downplaying Putin, which Mitt Romney pointed out in the debates a decade ago, Obama focused on improving ties with Russia and wanted a nuclear deal with Iran and reversed the favorable policies of Dubya regarding China which was continued by Trump, Biden cannot do anything at this point to restore what Dubya has started even if they both had the same views on foreign policy, they both wanted partnership with China and severing Ukraine and Georgia from Russia's orbit.

[gillan1220]

May 3, 2022 20:54:54 GMT kasumigenx said:

May 3, 2022 14:05:15 GMT stevep said:

  I don't know about that considering how much the US has moved to seeing China as its primary threat/opponent.  Its even been suggested this is a factor in Putin going so much more aggressive as he was feeling overshadowed by being ignored due to the US turn to the 'China challenge'.  [Basically think of him as similar to N Korea's twisted dynasty only with a lot more power and nukes.]

  If Clinton had been elected then relations with Russia would probably have soured because the pair don't like each other.  When Putin was 'playing' with the role of PM to get around the then limit on Presidential terms and Clinton was US Secretary of State they met a lot and it seems like he didn't like a woman standing up to him.  That would have compounded matters but a Clinton 2016 might have helped Ukraine earlier and more and definitely wouldn't have been pandering to Putin as Trump did.

  Getting this info from a BBC Radio 4 series on Putin, especially episode 8 which I heard earlier today. 

   Also I think part of the reason for Putin's growing aggressiveness in the past few years is a matter of how long he's been in power and also his knowledge that he may not have much longer and hence he's possibly both lashing out against the idea he's mortal and wishing to leave a 'legacy' of 'successful' expansion for Russia.

That was basically due to Obama downplaying Putin, which Mitt Romney pointed out in the debates a decade ago, Obama focused on improving ties with Russia and wanted a nuclear deal with Iran and reversed the favorable policies of Dubya regarding China which was continued by Trump, Biden cannot do anything at this point to restore what Dubya has started even if they both had the same views on foreign policy, they both wanted partnership with China and severing Ukraine and Georgia from Russia's orbit.

I will give credit to Obama for wanting to reset relations with Russia that was strained in 2008 under Bush. It was good around 2009 to 2011, up until the U.S. and NATO intervened on Libya. It was shaky at this period. Even in 2012, shaky but cordial. The U.S. allowed some 20 VDV paratroopers to participate in exercises with the U.S. Army in Colorado. The Russian Navy also took part in RIMPAC 2012 for the first and only time.

It was in 2013 when relations went bad when Putin called Obama's bluff over intervention in Syria after the chemical attacks. 2014 was when it went on a nosedive following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

[kasumigenx]

May 4, 2022 12:23:00 GMT gillan1220 said:

May 3, 2022 20:54:54 GMT kasumigenx said:

That was basically due to Obama downplaying Putin, which Mitt Romney pointed out in the debates a decade ago, Obama focused on improving ties with Russia and wanted a nuclear deal with Iran and reversed the favorable policies of Dubya regarding China which was continued by Trump, Biden cannot do anything at this point to restore what Dubya has started even if they both had the same views on foreign policy, they both wanted partnership with China and severing Ukraine and Georgia from Russia's orbit.

I will give credit to Obama for wanting to reset relations with Russia that was strained in 2008 under Bush. It was good around 2009 to 2011, up until the U.S. and NATO intervened on Libya. It was shaky at this period. Even in 2012, shaky but cordial. The U.S. allowed some 20 VDV paratroopers to participate in exercises with the U.S. Army in Colorado. The Russian Navy also took part in RIMPAC 2012 for the first and only time.

It was in 2013 when relations went bad when Putin called Obama's bluff over intervention in Syria after the chemical attacks. 2014 was when it went on a nosedive following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

That is not what the businesses and oligarchs in the U.S. want at that time, they wanted relations with China like Dubya did.

[gillan1220]

May 4, 2022 13:10:46 GMT kasumigenx said:

May 4, 2022 12:23:00 GMT gillan1220 said:

I will give credit to Obama for wanting to reset relations with Russia that was strained in 2008 under Bush. It was good around 2009 to 2011, up until the U.S. and NATO intervened on Libya. It was shaky at this period. Even in 2012, shaky but cordial. The U.S. allowed some 20 VDV paratroopers to participate in exercises with the U.S. Army in Colorado. The Russian Navy also took part in RIMPAC 2012 for the first and only time.

It was in 2013 when relations went bad when Putin called Obama's bluff over intervention in Syria after the chemical attacks. 2014 was when it went on a nosedive following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

That is not what the businesses and oligarchs in the U.S. want at that time, they wanted relations with China like Bush did.

Bush Sr. wanted to normalize relations with China even after Tiananmen Square. He sent Project Chestnut, the Sino-American surveillance effort to spy on the Soviet nuclear tests sites in Central Asia, continued.

Further reading:
- How CIA & Chinese PLA joined hands in secret Cold War op to snoop on Soviet Union nukes
- Shared secrets: How The U.S. and China worked together to spy on the Soviet Union
Discussion thread here: Sino-American SIGINT posts in China during the Cold War

Clinton accepted China in the WTO in 1993.

Bush Jr. wanted to normalize relations, yet it was complicated by the EP-3 collision with a Chinese jet over Hainan Island. My guess is that the Presidents at those times wanted to see China eventually transition to a liberal democracy, but that never happened.

[kasumigenx]

May 4, 2022 13:15:36 GMT gillan1220 said:

May 4, 2022 13:10:46 GMT kasumigenx said:

That is not what the businesses and oligarchs in the U.S. want at that time, they wanted relations with China like Bush did.

Bush Sr. wanted to normalize relations with China even after Tiananmen Square. He sent Project Chestnut, the Sino-American surveillance effort to spy on the Soviet nuclear tests sites in Central Asia, continued.

Further reading:
- How CIA & Chinese PLA joined hands in secret Cold War op to snoop on Soviet Union nukes
- Shared secrets: How The U.S. and China worked together to spy on the Soviet Union
Discussion thread here: Sino-American SIGINT posts in China during the Cold War

Clinton accepted China in the WTO in 1993.

Bush Jr. wanted to normalize relations, yet it was complicated by the EP-3 collision with a Chinese jet over Hainan Island. My guess is that the Presidents at those times wanted to see China eventually transition to a liberal democracy, but that never happened.

If U.S. had a president similar to the two Bushes and Clinton instead of Obama, President Ma would have succeeded in uniting Taiwan and China.

[gillan1220]

May 4, 2022 13:43:57 GMT kasumigenx said:

May 4, 2022 13:15:36 GMT gillan1220 said:

Bush Sr. wanted to normalize relations with China even after Tiananmen Square. He sent Project Chestnut, the Sino-American surveillance effort to spy on the Soviet nuclear tests sites in Central Asia, continued.

Further reading:
- How CIA & Chinese PLA joined hands in secret Cold War op to snoop on Soviet Union nukes
- Shared secrets: How The U.S. and China worked together to spy on the Soviet Union
Discussion thread here: Sino-American SIGINT posts in China during the Cold War

Clinton accepted China in the WTO in 1993.

Bush Jr. wanted to normalize relations, yet it was complicated by the EP-3 collision with a Chinese jet over Hainan Island. My guess is that the Presidents at those times wanted to see China eventually transition to a liberal democracy, but that never happened.

If U.S. had a president similar to the two Bushes and Clinton instead of Obama, President Ma would have succeeded in uniting Taiwan and China.

Or Ma gets disposed in a coup. Majority of the Taiwanese people aren't to keen on uniting with the PRC just yet.

[kasumigenx]

May 4, 2022 13:47:00 GMT gillan1220 said:

May 4, 2022 13:43:57 GMT kasumigenx said:

If U.S. had a president similar to the two Bushes and Clinton instead of Obama, President Ma would have succeeded in uniting Taiwan and China.

Or Ma gets disposed in a coup. Majority of the Taiwanese people aren't to keen on uniting with the PRC just yet.

Possible.

[kasumigenx]

But I think if China and US have good relations, North Korea is toast.