gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on May 4, 2022 14:06:13 GMT
But I think if China and US have good relations, North Korea is toast. Oh definitely. Beijing would tell Pyongyang what to do next. The question is, with the POD of hostile U.S.-Russia relations, would the Sunshine Policy still occur? |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on May 4, 2022 14:07:51 GMT
If U.S. had a president similar to the two Bushes and Clinton instead of Obama, President Ma would have succeeded in uniting Taiwan and China. Or Ma gets disposed in a coup. Majority of the Taiwanese people aren't to keen on uniting with the PRC just yet. Although if they coup Ma from that scenario, Taiwan would be more isolated. |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on May 4, 2022 14:10:45 GMT
Or Ma gets disposed in a coup. Majority of the Taiwanese people aren't to keen on uniting with the PRC just yet. Although if they coup Ma from that scenario, Taiwan would be more isolated. That would also prompt China to "intervene" under the guise of "protecting the Taiwanese people from the coup plotters". |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on May 4, 2022 17:27:37 GMT
Although if they coup Ma from that scenario, Taiwan would be more isolated. That would also prompt China to "intervene" under the guise of "protecting the Taiwanese people from the coup plotters". And they will have no support of America. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on May 6, 2022 14:15:27 GMT
I think the Philippines and China must discuss about what to do with Lanyu/Orchid Island and South China sea if Taiwan and China unite, I think the Yami tribe could be resettled to Batanes since they are related to the Ivatans.
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on May 6, 2022 15:37:23 GMT
I think the Philippines and China must discuss about what to do with Lanyu/Orchid Island and South China sea if Taiwan and China unite, I think the Yami tribe could be resettled to Batanes since they are related to the Ivatans. China's expansion would be the same as OTL. There would still be clashes with the claimants at some point. Another butterfly introduced here is that with tensions with Russia still high, this may mean the Philippines would invest in a better military including Harpoon missiles, F-16s, Hawk missile batteries, and more powerful warships. The Philippine Senate probaby does not vote to kick the American military pressence out, meaning Clark AB, Subic, and Camp John Hay remain U.S. bases to this day. We might see other expansion of U.S. bases in the country, particularly in Palawan and Batanes. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on May 6, 2022 18:56:56 GMT
I think the Philippines and China must discuss about what to do with Lanyu/Orchid Island and South China sea if Taiwan and China unite, I think the Yami tribe could be resettled to Batanes since they are related to the Ivatans. China's expansion would be the same as OTL. There would still be clashes with the claimants at some point. Another butterfly introduced here is that with tensions with Russia still high, this may mean the Philippines would invest in a better military including Harpoon missiles, F-16s, Hawk missile batteries, and more powerful warships. The Philippine Senate probaby does not vote to kick the American military pressence out, meaning Clark AB, Subic, and Camp John Hay remain U.S. bases to this day. We might see other expansion of U.S. bases in the country, particularly in Palawan and Batanes. I think the Balikatan would be expanded if this merger happens after they were expelled in the 90s. |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on May 6, 2022 20:50:05 GMT
China's expansion would be the same as OTL. There would still be clashes with the claimants at some point. Another butterfly introduced here is that with tensions with Russia still high, this may mean the Philippines would invest in a better military including Harpoon missiles, F-16s, Hawk missile batteries, and more powerful warships. The Philippine Senate probaby does not vote to kick the American military pressence out, meaning Clark AB, Subic, and Camp John Hay remain U.S. bases to this day. We might see other expansion of U.S. bases in the country, particularly in Palawan and Batanes. I think the Balikatan would be expanded if this merger happens after they were expelled in the 90s. The Americans won't be expelled from the Philippines as part of the butterflies if there are renewed tensions with Russia. Your POD is somewhere in the 1980s so meaning there is a two year gap before 1991. Two years is a lot to change in domestic and foreign policy. Aside from an expanded Balikatan, perhaps AFP modernization is taken more seriously. There would be F-16s, F/A-18 Hornets, and Kfirs flying around the skies of the archipelago. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on May 6, 2022 21:08:07 GMT
I think the Balikatan would be expanded if this merger happens after they were expelled in the 90s. The Americans won't be expelled from the Philippines as part of the butterflies if there are renewed tensions with Russia. Your POD is somewhere in the 1980s so meaning there is a two year gap before 1991. Two years is a lot to change in domestic and foreign policy. Aside from an expanded Balikatan, perhaps AFP modernization is taken more seriously. There would be F-16s, F/A-18 Hornets, and Kfirs flying around the skies of the archipelago. If Bush's foreign policy continues in 2010s, balikatan would be expanded since there would be more tensions with China. |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on May 6, 2022 21:10:01 GMT
The Americans won't be expelled from the Philippines as part of the butterflies if there are renewed tensions with Russia. Your POD is somewhere in the 1980s so meaning there is a two year gap before 1991. Two years is a lot to change in domestic and foreign policy. Aside from an expanded Balikatan, perhaps AFP modernization is taken more seriously. There would be F-16s, F/A-18 Hornets, and Kfirs flying around the skies of the archipelago. If Bush's foreign policy continues in 2010s, balikatan would be expanded since there would be more tensions with China. It would be like Exercise Cope Thunder during the Cold War which involved air forces from Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, the U.S., UK, Australia, and New Zealand. Even then, Cope Thunder and Red Flag would continued on. Balikatan for this timeline would be also include OTL's Quad and AUKUS. It would be the closest to a RIMPAC held in the Philippines. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on May 6, 2022 21:13:54 GMT
If Bush's foreign policy continues in 2010s, balikatan would be expanded since there would be more tensions with China. It would be like Exercise Cope Thunder during the Cold War which involved air forces from Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, the U.S., UK, Australia, and New Zealand. Even then, Cope Thunder and Red Flag would continued on. Balikatan for this timeline would be also include OTL's Quad and AUKUS. It would be the closest to a RIMPAC held in the Philippines. I think since Taiwan would be nonexistent after a certain time I think Australia would be part of the exercises. |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on May 7, 2022 3:46:03 GMT
It would be like Exercise Cope Thunder during the Cold War which involved air forces from Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, the U.S., UK, Australia, and New Zealand. Even then, Cope Thunder and Red Flag would continued on. Balikatan for this timeline would be also include OTL's Quad and AUKUS. It would be the closest to a RIMPAC held in the Philippines. I think since Taiwan would be nonexistent after a certain time I think Australia would be part of the exercises. Why would Taiwan fall to the PRC if there are ongoing tensions with Russia? The PLA in the 1990s was not in the position to take the island. American military aid to Taiwan will continue on. Australia would be part of Balikatan just like in OTL. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on May 7, 2022 8:19:07 GMT
I think since Taiwan would be nonexistent after a certain time I think Australia would be part of the exercises. Why would Taiwan fall to the PRC if there are ongoing tensions with Russia? The PLA in the 1990s was not in the position to take the island. American military aid to Taiwan will continue on. Australia would be part of Balikatan just like in OTL. I am talking about a timeline with a continued Bush like policy that diverges in the 2000s, not a timeline that diverges in the 90s. |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on May 7, 2022 9:00:16 GMT
Why would Taiwan fall to the PRC if there are ongoing tensions with Russia? The PLA in the 1990s was not in the position to take the island. American military aid to Taiwan will continue on. Australia would be part of Balikatan just like in OTL. I am talking about a timeline with a continued Bush like policy that diverges in the 2000s, not a timeline that diverges in the 90s. If it is in the 2000s, then we would still see a return of U.S. troops to the Philippines to counter both threats of China and Russia. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on May 7, 2022 10:32:22 GMT
I am talking about a timeline with a continued Bush like policy that diverges in the 2000s, not a timeline that diverges in the 90s. If it is in the 2000s, then we would still see a return of U.S. troops to the Philippines to counter both threats of China and Russia. But I doubt it that they would trust the U.S. if U.S. is allied with China, Philippines might ally more with Australia. |
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