gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on May 7, 2022 14:00:08 GMT
If it is in the 2000s, then we would still see a return of U.S. troops to the Philippines to counter both threats of China and Russia. But I doubt it that they would trust the U.S. if U.S. is allied with China, Philippines might ally more with Australia. The Sino-American partnership was bound to collapse either way. The U.S. would not fully ally with China. The rapprochement in the 1980s was just out of convenience because the Soviet Union was the bigger threat. Taiwan was the grey-zone of this partnership. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on May 7, 2022 14:26:15 GMT
But I doubt it that they would trust the U.S. if U.S. is allied with China, Philippines might ally more with Australia. The Sino-American partnership was bound to collapse either way. The U.S. would not fully ally with China. The rapprochement in the 1980s was just out of convenience because the Soviet Union was the bigger threat. Taiwan was the grey-zone of this partnership. The Question is If President Ma and XI integrates Taiwan to China what would happen in the Countries that surround China, although Korea would likely be reunified as a Neutral State here. |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on May 7, 2022 14:31:56 GMT
The Sino-American partnership was bound to collapse either way. The U.S. would not fully ally with China. The rapprochement in the 1980s was just out of convenience because the Soviet Union was the bigger threat. Taiwan was the grey-zone of this partnership. The Question is If President Ma and XI integrates Taiwan to China what would happen in the Countries that surround China, although Korea would likely be reunified as a Neutral State here. I don't think Ma will reunify with China. Korea still won't be unified. Japan would be terrified with a hostile Russia, a rising China, and nuclear armed Korea. This might push for the abolition of Article 9 as well as a Japanese nuclear weapons program. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 7, 2022 14:33:20 GMT
If it is in the 2000s, then we would still see a return of U.S. troops to the Philippines to counter both threats of China and Russia. But I doubt it that they would trust the U.S. if U.S. is allied with China, Philippines might ally more with Australia.
They might want closer links with Australia but if there's tensions with the US that won't happen. Plus even if willing Australia on its own is nowhere near powerful enough to counter a Chinese threat. Doubly so if due to butterflies its conquered Taiwan, which puts it even closer to the Philippines.
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on May 7, 2022 14:33:49 GMT
The Question is If President Ma and XI integrates Taiwan to China what would happen in the Countries that surround China, although Korea would likely be reunified as a Neutral State here. I don't think Ma will reunify with China. Korea still won't be unified. Japan would be terrified with a hostile Russia, a rising China, and nuclear armed Korea. This might push for the abolition of Article 9 as well as a Japanese nuclear weapons program. If the Bush policies with China continued the reunification of Korea under the South is a posibility. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on May 7, 2022 14:59:51 GMT
After Korea reunites due to Bush's policies the issue with Taiwan could cause US-China partnership to collapse.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on May 7, 2022 17:46:58 GMT
If we're talking about US-Russia relations never being normalized after Reagan, there might be some possible scenarios in this case:
1) If it was post-Soviet Russia: you would need someone other than Yeltsin who is hostile and suspicious of American intentions with the post-Soviet successor states. Possibly Aleksander Rutskoy becoming President of Russia, or Gennady Zyuganov.
2) If you wanted to keep the territories of the USSR together, but abandon communism, there's the ZRE route.
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on May 10, 2022 13:06:48 GMT
That was basically due to Obama downplaying Putin, which Mitt Romney pointed out in the debates a decade ago, Obama focused on improving ties with Russia and wanted a nuclear deal with Iran and reversed the favorable policies of Dubya regarding China which was continued by Trump, Biden cannot do anything at this point to restore what Dubya has started even if they both had the same views on foreign policy, they both wanted partnership with China and severing Ukraine and Georgia from Russia's orbit. I will give credit to Obama for wanting to reset relations with Russia that was strained in 2008 under Bush. It was good around 2009 to 2011, up until the U.S. and NATO intervened on Libya. It was shaky at this period. Even in 2012, shaky but cordial. The U.S. allowed some 20 VDV paratroopers to participate in exercises with the U.S. Army in Colorado. The Russian Navy also took part in RIMPAC 2012 for the first and only time. It was in 2013 when relations went bad when Putin called Obama's bluff over intervention in Syria after the chemical attacks. 2014 was when it went on a nosedive following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula. PNoy wanted to reset relations with the Marcoses and Obama wanted to reset relations with Russia and we are seeing the results of that. |
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gillan1220
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Post by gillan1220 on May 10, 2022 13:09:04 GMT
I will give credit to Obama for wanting to reset relations with Russia that was strained in 2008 under Bush. It was good around 2009 to 2011, up until the U.S. and NATO intervened on Libya. It was shaky at this period. Even in 2012, shaky but cordial. The U.S. allowed some 20 VDV paratroopers to participate in exercises with the U.S. Army in Colorado. The Russian Navy also took part in RIMPAC 2012 for the first and only time. It was in 2013 when relations went bad when Putin called Obama's bluff over intervention in Syria after the chemical attacks. 2014 was when it went on a nosedive following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula. PNoy wanted to reset relations with the Marcoses and Obama wanted to reset relations with Russia and we are seeing the results of that. For Pnoy, there was a reset with the Marcoses and the Aquinos especially when Imelda visited the wake of Cory. Obama was getting there with Russia, but the Libyan intervention occurred. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on May 10, 2022 16:12:44 GMT
PNoy wanted to reset relations with the Marcoses and Obama wanted to reset relations with Russia and we are seeing the results of that. For Pnoy, there was a reset with the Marcoses and the Aquinos especially when Imelda visited the wake of Cory. Obama was getting there with Russia, but the Libyan intervention occurred. I think the political elite of the Philippines and America does not want that and they do everything to sabottage that which basically is culminating in what we are seeing today. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on May 17, 2022 20:55:38 GMT
PNoy wanted to reset relations with the Marcoses and Obama wanted to reset relations with Russia and we are seeing the results of that. For Pnoy, there was a reset with the Marcoses and the Aquinos especially when Imelda visited the wake of Cory. His relatives and supporters of his mom secretly hate him for that. |
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gillan1220
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I've been depressed recently. Slow replies coming in the next few days.
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Post by gillan1220 on May 18, 2022 7:06:11 GMT
For Pnoy, there was a reset with the Marcoses and the Aquinos especially when Imelda visited the wake of Cory. His relatives and supporters of his mom secretly hate him for that. It was all for a show anyways. Now going back to the topic, my guess the Cold War continues well into the 2020s. It would mirror our OTL Cold War 2.0. |
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kasumigenx
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Post by kasumigenx on May 18, 2022 12:53:59 GMT
His relatives and supporters of his mom secretly hate him for that. It was all for a show anyways. And its only him that wants that... |
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