What if the PRC from 1 December, 1949, is ISOT'ed back 30 years to 1 December, 1919?

[raharris1973]

What if the PRC from 1 December, 1949, is ISOT'ed back 30 years to 1 December, 1919?

This is the entire territory sovereignly controlled by the PRC, so the only exceptions are the remaining foreign leasehold territories, which in 1949 were the Portuguese leased Macau, British leased Hong Kong, and Soviet leased Dalian and Lushun/Port Arthur on the Guangdong peninsula. Those don't ISOT back, so they remain in their 1919 incarnations, which are controlled by Portugal, Britain, and Japan, respectively. However, by 1919 numerous other concession areas and leases throughout other Chinese cities and ports like Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangzhouan had been abolished, so their 1919 foreign owners/protectors will wonder where their property, expats, and regular contacts suddenly disappeared to.

The Chinese PLA has just occupied Chongqing, and is poised to begin the occupation of Chengdu, and the remaining southwestern provinces. PLA forces are fanned out in an arc to complete the occupation of the western portions of China, along the southern border, where they've recently conquered and chased KMT remnants across the border, and in Guangdong & Fujian, across the straits from the Nationalist held islands of Hainan and Taiwan.

The PRC government has diplomatic ties to establish with the Russian Federated Soviet Republic. Mao Zedong, his comrades, and likely Soviet personnel present in China likely have some "news from the future" they would like to convey to the USSR about the quarter century ahead.

The PRC also would probably like to change the situation of having the Japanese Empire as a neighbor on land, ASAP, seeing the Japanese removed from the Guangdong peninsula and Korean Peninsula, in that order. Beijing also desires Japanese ouster from Taiwan and the Pescadores, but that is probably less strictly urgent, from a pure security POV, and probably also more difficult to accomplish.

The Russian Communists at this moment are still going through their own Civil War in December 1919, and are at war with Poland. In the parts of Russia bordering China, it is White Russians, aided by foreign, especially Japanese, and even some Chinese warlord, troops who are in control, so Mao has every incentive to take fraternal socialist action and send PLA fighting volunteers to help the Bolshevik side.  The White side in the Russian Far East/Siberia is in fact finding its supply-line through the Manchurian railways interrupted by PRC control, even while they still control the Trans-Siberian leg north of the Amur.  The PLA needs to re-allocate some forces back to the northeast to protect it, and to cross the border to work with Bolshevik partisans to interdict or capture the TSR and get the Japanese out of the Amur and Primorye districts in addition to Port Arthur.  

Conveniently for Mao, this is also an opportunity for him to subborn or overpower the Chinese Beiyang/warlord troops in Outer Mongolia & Tannu Tuva so that those regions are clearly integrated with the PRC and under its authority before the Soviet Civil War is resolved. Indeed, intervention in the Russian Civil War on behalf of the Bolsheviks can provide an opportunity to correct past unequal Sino-Russian treaties, or at least parts of them. 

This is also a period of dissent within Korea, and a period when the Japanese public, unlike the 1930s, was not squarely behind military adventurism. However, military humiliation and offended pride can most likely convert the broad Japanese public into a conformist, right-wing frame of mind.  

In 1919, on thing Mao certainly *cannot* count on is western countries being anti-Japanese in Japanese struggles with Communist Russians and Chinese.


How do things develop from this starting point?

[lordroel]

Aug 17, 2022 2:52:41 GMT raharris1973 said:

What if the PRC from 1 December, 1949, is ISOT'ed back 30 years to 1 December, 1919?

If we check this map China December 1949 we must also remove the ROC part of China i think.

[stevep]

   Sounds like there's some uncertainty about the exact position on the date of the ISOT and what if anything the KMT has left on the mainland at this point.

  I think the 1919 world other than probably the USSR will react with some hostility to the sudden appearance of a communist China in 1919, although war weariness is going to be a factor and to a degree the CCP has a clear technological edge in a number of areas.  - How much this lasts depends on how much weapons and munitions it can maintain or construct itself.  It will know of a lot of potential information, including of course nukes but detailed technological information let alone any ability to produce such weapons themselves would be a hell of a lot more limited. 

  Even if there is no KMT presence on the mainland at this point I think there will probably be some outsides, including traders and diplomats from assorted foreign powers but whether Mao will think of rounding them up before any get out to a more secure location I don't know.  However they could supply some useful information to non-communist elements.

  While things are probably good between the USSR and communist China there are a couple of possible issues.  One is if Mao does seek to reverse some of China's territorial losses to Russia.  The other is while he probably thinks of Stalin as a great leader and friend Stalin is currently still a mid-level figure.  If news gets out of what happened in the USSR after Lenin's death it could be that there will be moves to remove Stalin from power - which giving we're talking about the Bolsheviks would probably be permanent.  Attempts to talk to Stalin and aid him in gaining power could make the Bolsheviks pretty hostile, albeit they don't have a massive amount of power, especially in the far east and could well find themselves forced into some sort of alliance with Mao.

  In terms of the borders on 1-12-1949 the wiki entry on the last stages of the Chinese Civil war seems to suggest that by that time the KMT were largely expelled from the mainland. See this map from the same article for a look at the final offensive.

  PS Thinking about this more it does look grim for much of the world.  Without adequate knowledge of future events or really what their facing with Mao's regime, even with him isolated from up-time Soviet support he has a large and experienced army and at least some knowledge of both future events and technology.  He would struggle to reach western Europe in the short term let alone the Americas but a lot of Asia could be highly vulnerable to conquest.  With technological inferiority - which will be a shock to them - and the exhaustion of most powers after WWI the existing great powers are unlikely to do a lot to oppose such actions.

[575]

A lot here - according to the Map linked to by L Roel there's still some Nationalist/KMT areas on the mainland which needs being conquered which is a matter of time. If those got some supply still from the Burma-road that is severed by now.
You have a lot the Chinese should wont to do to help the birth of the Sovietunion; of course within desired borders! However Mao don't know yet what the Soviets had in store for him except areas mentioned the Soviets had occupied during the RCW.
About the Soviet supportunits with Mao will they want to interfere with the birth of their homeland? The weeding of the chaff during the 1930's can't be forgotten as well as the Holodomor - there should be some resentment as to who to support.
The White Forces including Japanese and the Czech Legion still is operational though the Czechs in on their way out - and just want to get out. I'd let the Czechs go off and also wave goodbye to the Japanese and then crush the remaining White forces in Siberia. Chinese Mongolia???

I don't see the CCP conquering Taiwan ITTL even if they want to the IJN still is a force to be reckoned with - at least for the CCP. Korea of course is another kettle of fish though shouldn't be impossible either. The gamechanger would be if the CCP manage to employ its Airforce to the max for a clear intelligence picture of the opposition. With the limited mobility of CCP forces and 1919 opposition it would really make a difference.

Post Korea Tibet is on the menu and then liberation of the Colonies of SEA? Guess Uncle Ho won't mind some help to oust the French Colonial Rule - of his willingness to let the Chinese in I have no idea..

[raharris1973]

Aug 17, 2022 3:20:54 GMT lordroel said:

Aug 17, 2022 2:52:41 GMT raharris1973 said:

What if the PRC from 1 December, 1949, is ISOT'ed back 30 years to 1 December, 1919?

If we check this map China December 1949 we must also remove the ROC part of China i think.

I think your map is right on the money about what areas were already Communist and what remained in KMT or warlord hands in December 1949. We could go with an easy solution and say the non Communist remnant areas are still downtime 1919 versions of Chinese provinces. That is not very disruptive of Communist takeover. These areas were rural backwaters, with some, but not very many, foreigners, and run by vintage militarists who don’t know what is about to hit them. Meanwhile, the 1949 PLA is well poised to march in and take them over. The only thing they lose in time transition is some rural guerrillas behind the lines, name recognition among the populace, and some party activists in the towns of the unoccupied area.

On the other hand, even if all these fringe parts of the ROC like the far west and southwest and Hainan from 1949 go back with remnant KMT forces, the momentum is still heavily on the Communist side and their enemies are pretty doomed. Mao can cite the backtiming, the absence of the Americans, and need to unite in advance of Japanese aggression soon to come (invasion of Manchuria in a dozen years) as an argument for the remaining KMT to surrender early, and many were defecting in these months. At the same time the hardest core anticommunists could try to appeal to western colonial powers like France and Britain for support. This will be a heck of a surprise to them. Some KMT may even appeal for Japanese support, and just try to get Japanese intervention on very different terms from OTL (good luck).

[raharris1973]

Aug 17, 2022 16:01:23 GMT stevep said:

   Sounds like there's some uncertainty about the exact position on the date of the ISOT and what if anything the KMT has left on the mainland at this point.

  I think the 1919 world other than probably the USSR will react with some hostility to the sudden appearance of a communist China in 1919, although war weariness is going to be a factor and to a degree the CCP has a clear technological edge in a number of areas.  - How much this lasts depends on how much weapons and munitions it can maintain or construct itself.  It will know of a lot of potential information, including of course nukes but detailed technological information let alone any ability to produce such weapons themselves would be a hell of a lot more limited. 

  Even if there is no KMT presence on the mainland at this point I think there will probably be some outsides, including traders and diplomats from assorted foreign powers but whether Mao will think of rounding them up before any get out to a more secure location I don't know.  However they could supply some useful information to non-communist elements.

  While things are probably good between the USSR and communist China there are a couple of possible issues.  One is if Mao does seek to reverse some of China's territorial losses to Russia.  The other is while he probably thinks of Stalin as a great leader and friend Stalin is currently still a mid-level figure.  If news gets out of what happened in the USSR after Lenin's death it could be that there will be moves to remove Stalin from power - which giving we're talking about the Bolsheviks would probably be permanent.  Attempts to talk to Stalin and aid him in gaining power could make the Bolsheviks pretty hostile, albeit they don't have a massive amount of power, especially in the far east and could well find themselves forced into some sort of alliance with Mao.

  In terms of the borders on 1-12-1949 the wiki entry on the last stages of the Chinese Civil war seems to suggest that by that time the KMT were largely expelled from the mainland. See this map from the same article for a look at the final offensive.

  PS Thinking about this more it does look grim for much of the world.  Without adequate knowledge of future events or really what their facing with Mao's regime, even with him isolated from up-time Soviet support he has a large and experienced army and at least some knowledge of both future events and technology.  He would struggle to reach western Europe in the short term let alone the Americas but a lot of Asia could be highly vulnerable to conquest.  With technological inferiority - which will be a shock to them - and the exhaustion of most powers after WWI the existing great powers are unlikely to do a lot to oppose such actions.

Good points Stevep-

I think Mao will not have much of a problem locking down almost all uptime westerners in his Communist zone, but there will be a few exceptions. He will be able to put out his own, slanted version of “news from the future” and the rest of the world will believe or disbelieve what they choose. If the rump KMT areas come along, non-communist Chinese and westerners will be able to corroborate, and contradict as needed, Mao’s news from the future, and get it out to the rest of the world.

I don’t think territorial disputes with the USSR will be a big issue. The Soviets will never know they had Mongolia and Tuva. Also, mired in their own civil war, they were in a ‘beggars can’t be choosers’ phase. If the territory in question is White-held at the time, it can be 'fair game', if it is (Russian) Red-held already, the Red Chinese can be more circumspect. 

I think Western Europe and the Americas and the Japanese home islands will be outside the scope of Mao’s immediate ambition. Mainland Asia is a different story. Now if an invasion of European powers puts the Soviets in serious jeopardy, Mao may send “volunteer armies” to help out. At least unless he is bogged down repelling for example, a Japanese or Japanese-British invasion of China.

[raharris1973]

Aug 17, 2022 16:30:23 GMT 575 said:

A lot here - according to the Map linked to by L Roel there's still some Nationalist/KMT areas on the mainland which needs being conquered which is a matter of time. If those got some supply still from the Burma-road that is severed by now.
You have a lot the Chinese should wont to do to help the birth of the Sovietunion; of course within desired borders! However Mao don't know yet what the Soviets had in store for him except areas mentioned the Soviets had occupied during the RCW.
About the Soviet supportunits with Mao will they want to interfere with the birth of their homeland? The weeding of the chaff during the 1930's can't be forgotten as well as the Holodomor - there should be some resentment as to who to support.
The White Forces including Japanese and the Czech Legion still is operational though the Czechs in on their way out - and just want to get out. I'd let the Czechs go off and also wave goodbye to the Japanese and then crush the remaining White forces in Siberia. Chinese Mongolia???

I don't see the CCP conquering Taiwan ITTL even if they want to the IJN still is a force to be reckoned with - at least for the CCP. Korea of course is another kettle of fish though shouldn't be impossible either. The gamechanger would be if the CCP manage to employ its Airforce to the max for a clear intelligence picture of the opposition. With the limited mobility of CCP forces and 1919 opposition it would really make a difference.

Post Korea Tibet is on the menu and then liberation of the Colonies of SEA? Guess Uncle Ho won't mind some help to oust the French Colonial Rule - of his willingness to let the Chinese in I have no idea..

More good points-

I agree, as a seaborne operation, Taiwan is probably too hard to do. The only chance is a sneaky seaborne infiltration before the Japanese figure out the change. Even then, the Japanese can use the IJN to isolate the island and grind it down even if the Chinese Reds pulled a fait accompli through stealthy infiltration.

I agree Mongolia is restored to China. Crossing the border to help the Russian Reds against Whites and foreign interventionists on the Trans-Siberian railway is likely.

Chinese Air Force is a theoretical advantage for PRC, but honestly at this time, the PRC didn’t have much of it. It got hardly any KMT Air Force defectors and hardly any Soviet planes or training yet. What they got was more along the lines of transport than combat at this point.

Taking Korea depends on moving forces back northeast to be in place in enough strength to match the Japanese.  Same for the Kwangtung peninsula

Forces are better positioned to just cross over into Indochina at the moment, and Ho Chi Minh is still too minor a guy to say a decisive yes or no at this point. If Mao says his plan is to ‘liberate and leave’ Ho and others against French rule probably have to say “Sounds good to me”.

[shadow007]

The League of Nations suddenly becomes much more popular and gets more power. The US is no longer isolationist.

The Brits are less inclined to fight the rebelling Irish as they would be much more worried over the Reds

[raharris1973]

Aug 19, 2022 21:22:27 GMT shadow007 said:

The League of Nations suddenly becomes much more popular and gets more power. The US is no longer isolationist.

The Brits are less inclined to fight the rebelling Irish as they would be much more worried over the Reds

Where European carnage and postwar greed fails to inspire commitment, and encourages isolation, the threat of Red Chinese inspires commitment? 

Maybe I guess.

All the more so if the Red Chinese start infiltrating agents to stir up and support rebellion in the Philippines. Anytime anybody went on strike in Hawaii it could be blamed on the Chinese Reds too. Maybe in US-held territories ethnic Japanese would be picked out as a designated 'strike-breaker' nationality against ethnic Chinese.

[shadow007]

The Holocaust does not hapoen and many Jews become Communists. Hitler and Mussolini are tortured to death.

Atomic Bombs will be invented much earlier result in the Cold War starting earlier

[raharris1973]

Reviving.

Here are reference maps relevant to the scenario.

www.flickr.com/photos/22187058@N03/53697438430/in/photostream/lightbox/
www.flickr.com/photos/22187058@N03/53697208818/in/photostream/lightbox/

[575]

May 4, 2024 2:17:24 GMT raharris1973 said:

Reviving.

Here are reference maps relevant to the scenario.

www.flickr.com/photos/22187058@N03/53697438430/in/photostream/lightbox/
www.flickr.com/photos/22187058@N03/53697208818/in/photostream/lightbox/

The Japanese will be mightily P-O'd by getting cut down in Manchuria and losing contact to its 70,000 troops in Sibiria. Still they should be able to utilize the Amur Railway to keep in touch with their Sibirian force. As they were highly offensive in Sibiria I don't see them backing off fighting the PRC and certainly they will defend Taiwan.

What about the 30,000 Japanese troops fighting for the PRC? They might want to join the revived Empire!

I think Mao will have some serious decisions to make. The Soviets are still far away held off by Admiral Kolchak east of Tobolsk though they are also on the border of the Ma Clique. Without Soviet supply he may have some problems in continueing the Civil War.

[stevep]

May 4, 2024 2:17:24 GMT raharris1973 said:

Reviving.

Here are reference maps relevant to the scenario.

www.flickr.com/photos/22187058@N03/53697438430/in/photostream/lightbox/
www.flickr.com/photos/22187058@N03/53697208818/in/photostream/lightbox/

  Well the interesting bit there seems to be that there is no real contact point between the Bolsheviks and the CCP controlled territory.  This could reduce the amount of interaction between the two in the short term.  Assuming that Mao drives the Japanese [and others] out of the Russian Far East would he later return those areas to the USSR or would he claim a lot of the more important once for China as they were part of the early Manchu/Qing empire? 

  The CCP has a clear technological advantage from the amount of Soviet and probably some western equipment they have captured from the KMT but they probably have little ability to maintain let alone construct anything heavier than personal weapons, mortars and the like.  They will have a hell of a lot of experienced troops but with mostly low intensity warfare and their road logistics is also highly dependent on trucks that won't be around long.

  It will be interesting the views and status of Soviet 'volunteers' and advisors caught up in the ISOT.  Their probably largely loyal to Stalin but if news of this, or of them, get back to Moscow this could be unhealthy for our [least] favourite Georgian.

  In the situation here the interaction between the CCP and the other powers is important and there are a number of potential flash points.

a)  Does Mao seek to 'complete reunifications' by attacking Macao and Hong Kong?

b)  What response does he give to western questions about the disappearance of their other interests such as the international settlement in Shanghai.

c)  What if a lot of the KMT retreat into Burma, which is currently part of British India?  How do the British respond to their appearance, the information they supply on the future and also any CCP demands their handed over to them? 

d)  News of events elsewhere in the world between 1919-1949, especially coming from any western advisors/businessmen/missionaries etc caught up in the exodus are going to be explosive in Europe and elsewhere as well.  How do the western powers react to the rise of fascism and details of WWII and the US to the depression and its role in WWII?

  The other key unknown is the reaction of the general public in war weary Europe especially.  OTL there was hostility in Britain by many working class people to pressure on the Bolsheviks, enough that George V was reluctant to allow refuge to the Czar and his family.  Here with a massive new communist state emerging in China does that radicalize more people into opposing any intervention against communism or does news of future events make more people fearful of it?

  If the western powers and Japan work together and are internally united they can possibly be able to at least fight the communists to a standstill, especially if friendly up-timers can give them information but I doubt they could remove the CCP and what happens in Russia will be uncertain.  However it could still end up very badly for the democratic powers, quite possibly prompting communist unrest in some of them. 

  One other point that occurred to me.  This date is towards the end of the great flu pandemic.  While most people know of its impact on the developed world it also killed many millions elsewhere as well.  What would be the effects of it spreading into the ISOTed areas?  Would they possibly have a level of immunity as some would probably have been exposed during their youth or would it cause heavy losses?

PS - In responding to 575's post I actually looked at the OP and realised that its only the CCP controlled parts of China moved so there's no KMT remanant anywhere, only the weakened and chaotic parts of China from 1919.  That means a chunk of what I wrote above is irrelevant/inactive.  Points c) and d) above especially although there might be a few westerners currently in CCP controlled areas who, if allowed to leave could give some info.  However a lot less would be available than if all China had been ISOTed.

[stevep]

May 4, 2024 9:22:50 GMT 575 said:

May 4, 2024 2:17:24 GMT raharris1973 said:

Reviving.

Here are reference maps relevant to the scenario.

www.flickr.com/photos/22187058@N03/53697438430/in/photostream/lightbox/
www.flickr.com/photos/22187058@N03/53697208818/in/photostream/lightbox/

The Japanese will be mightily P-O'd by getting cut down in Manchuria and losing contact to its 70,000 troops in Sibiria. Still they should be able to utilize the Amur Railway to keep in touch with their Sibirian force. As they were highly offensive in Sibiria I don't see them backing off fighting the PRC and certainly they will defend Taiwan.

What about the 30,000 Japanese troops fighting for the PRC? They might want to join the revived Empire!

I think Mao will have some serious decisions to make. The Soviets are still far away held off by Admiral Kolchak east of Tobolsk though they are also on the border of the Ma Clique. Without Soviet supply he may have some problems in continueing the Civil War.

  I was going to say that the CCP would easily defeat the demoralized rump of the KMT but just realised that's not necessary.  Its only the CCP controlled parts of China that are ISOTed and the rest is in its 1919 state, with a weak republic and set of warlords.  The KMT and any western advisors from 1949 are no long present.  Mao can easily win the civil war against the weak and surprised opposition he will replace.  Which rather negates a lot of the post I've just finished writing!!

[575]

Didn't focus much on ex-pats in PRC besides the Japanese but there could be some US and British Intelligence and ofc Soviet but also the Soviets had a Navy base at Port Arthur.