|
|
Post by justiniano on Nov 19, 2022 1:35:53 GMT
Shortly before he dies, Stalin retires and appoints Lazar Kaganovich as his successor, without the party struggle which happened during this time, Soviets can afford to help Mossadegh, at least because they don't have to deal with a question of who is in charge now. He goes on to send Khruschev (and much later Gorbachev) to a gulag for the rest of their lives, extending the USSR's lifespan by decades. Anyway, The USSR mediates Iran & Iraq's disputes, meaning no Iran-Iraq war. Meaning Yasser Arafat doesn't support Iraq's invasion of Iran, meaning Iranian-PLO relations are good. What would this mean for the Lebanese civil war?
|
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 64,676 
Likes: 45,738
|
Post by lordroel on Nov 19, 2022 2:25:23 GMT
Shortly before he dies, Stalin retires and appoints Lazar Kaganovich as his successor, without the party struggle which happened during this time, Soviets can afford to help Mossadegh, at least because they don't have to deal with a question of who is in charge now. He goes on to send Khruschev (and much later Gorbachev) to a gulag for the rest of their lives, extending the USSR's lifespan by decades. Anyway, The USSR mediates Iran & Iraq's disputes, meaning no Iran-Iraq war. Meaning Yasser Arafat doesn't support Iraq's invasion of Iran, meaning Iranian-PLO relations are good. What would this mean for the Lebanese civil war? Stalin retiring is ASB, he loved the power he had, also retiring before he dies, what year would that be. |
|
|
|
Post by justiniano on Nov 19, 2022 4:31:41 GMT
retiring before he dies, what year would that be. 1952 |
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 23,357
Likes: 11,989
|
Post by stevep on Nov 19, 2022 11:12:38 GMT
Shortly before he dies, Stalin retires and appoints Lazar Kaganovich as his successor, without the party struggle which happened during this time, Soviets can afford to help Mossadegh, at least because they don't have to deal with a question of who is in charge now. He goes on to send Khruschev (and much later Gorbachev) to a gulag for the rest of their lives, extending the USSR's lifespan by decades. Anyway, The USSR mediates Iran & Iraq's disputes, meaning no Iran-Iraq war. Meaning Yasser Arafat doesn't support Iraq's invasion of Iran, meaning Iranian-PLO relations are good. What would this mean for the Lebanese civil war? Stalin retiring is ASB, he loved the power he had, also retiring before he dies, what year would that be.
Agree and also the idea that people like Khruschev and Gorbachev - who could well be a non-entity in TTL - being sent to the gulags extending the USSR's life for decades. Khruschev probably extended its life by giving it more responsible government [albeit not by much]. The USSR didn't collapse because Gorbachev came to power. The reason he was selected as leader was because even the old guard apparatchiks realised that drastic change was necessary and the big impact of Gorbachev's character was that it died relatively bloodlessly rather than with a lot - potentially far, far more deaths.
Even if this happens then some of the other issues are unlikely. The Soviets seeking to help Mossadegh would only increase US and UK hostility towards him it being already deep in the cold war. You could end up triggering a major conflict.
Similarly assuming that the something like the Iran/Iraq war still occurs would be a huge step. If it did then why would a USSR under conservative rule be any more interested in and successful at defusing the conflict that OTL. Assuming no significant butterflies Iran is under a religious fanatic who hates the Soviets nearly as much as the US and Iraq is a Soviet ally. Moscow is unlikely to be willing or - unless it makes dire threats to an ally to prevent it attacking a mutual foe - able to prevent Saddam attacking Iran. Saddam attacked because he saw Iran as gravely divided - which to a degree it was - and that he could win a quick war which would both boost his prestige and capture the primary oil producing region of Iran and add it to Iraq's own resources.
|
|
|
|
Post by Max Sinister on Nov 19, 2022 11:23:02 GMT
To come back about the Lebanese Civil War: Since it started in 1975, why wouldn't it happen just because the SU interferes in Iraq and Iran?
Unless you meant the second one (2006), but that doesn't seem to make sense.
|
|
|
|
Post by justiniano on Nov 19, 2022 12:19:55 GMT
Similarly assuming that the something like the Iran/Iraq war still occurs I'm saying the war wouldn't happen in TTL since the Russians mediate disputes between Iran & Iraq |
|
|
|
Post by justiniano on Nov 19, 2022 12:20:32 GMT
To come back about the Lebanese Civil War: Since it started in 1975, why wouldn't it happen just because the SU interferes in Iraq and Iran? I never said it wouldn't happen. I was asking how it would play out |
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 64,676
Likes: 45,738
|
Post by lordroel on Nov 19, 2022 12:26:32 GMT
To come back about the Lebanese Civil War: Since it started in 1975, why wouldn't it happen just because the SU interferes in Iraq and Iran? I never said it wouldn't happen. I was asking how it would play out , you are again creating multiple PODs in one thread, Stalin retiring and appointing Lazar Kaganovich as his successor (you never mention the other big fish in the room called Beria) creates so much butterflies we do not know what would happen to the world, we could end up with World War III as Kaganovich might not handle the Cuban Crisis as Khruschev of OTL. |
|
|
|
Post by justiniano on Nov 19, 2022 12:59:21 GMT
you are again creating multiple PODs in one thread No I'm not. Stalin retiring and appointing Lazar Kaganovich as his successor That's the only PoD, idk what you're talking about |
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 64,676
Likes: 45,738
|
Post by lordroel on Nov 19, 2022 13:14:19 GMT
you are again creating multiple PODs in one thread No I'm not. Stalin retiring and appointing Lazar Kaganovich as his successor That's the only PoD, idk what you're talking about Still this thread does not make sense, why would Lazar Kaganovich send Khruschev to a Gulag as he is still only the Party head for Moscow, so no rival for Kaganovich power unless he can tap into what happens in OTL, second goes for Gorbachev, also you still not have answered what happens to Beria who i think is the main rival for Kaganovich. |
|
|
|
Post by justiniano on Nov 19, 2022 16:06:44 GMT
also you still not have answered what happens to Beria who i think is the main rival for Kaganovich. Because idk what would happen to him. |
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 64,676
Likes: 45,738
|
Post by lordroel on Nov 19, 2022 16:09:25 GMT
also you still not have answered what happens to Beria who i think is the main rival for Kaganovich. Because idk what would happen to him. You are the OP, you say. Then we ore other can tell what we think would happen to him. |
|
|
|
Post by justiniano on Nov 19, 2022 16:14:36 GMT
Then we ore other can tell what we think would happen to him. Then tell me what you think would happen to him |
|
lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 64,676
Likes: 45,738
|
Post by lordroel on Nov 19, 2022 16:15:48 GMT
Then we ore other can tell what we think would happen to him. Then tell me what you think would happen to him That is not how it works, i asked you what would happen to Beria, twice, your are the OP of this thread. |
|
|
|
Post by justiniano on Nov 19, 2022 17:59:32 GMT
lordroel, would a better PoD be that Khruschev is sent to a gulag for life during Stalin's purges and Stalin appoints Lazar as his successor?
|
|
