WI: no October Revolution, impact on ww2?

[Otto Kretschmer]

What if the October Revolution never happened and it was either the Russian Empire or the Russian Republic that fought ww2?

For certain there would be no communism which means that Russia would rxperience both the Roaring Twenties and the Great Depression. No communism also means no forced industrialization which means that Russia might be less prepared for ww2 than USSR was industry wise while it's officer corps might be of higher quality due to lack of Great Purge

What do you guys think?

[stevep]

Jun 26, 2024 8:04:02 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

What if the October Revolution never happened and it was either the Russian Empire or the Russian Republic that fought ww2?

For certain there would be no communism which means that Russia would rxperience both the Roaring Twenties and the Great Depression. No communism also means no forced industrialization which means that Russia might be less prepared for ww2 than USSR was industry wise while it's officer corps might be of higher quality due to lack of Great Purge

What do you guys think?

  A lot would depend on the details of why the October uprising either failed or didn't occur but it would be far from certain that a WWII similar to OTL would occur.  Russia is still likely to be unstable with terrorist action from both extremes as well as many groups seeking to leave the state.  Also how big a role would it play in the peace settlement and the post-war balance of power?  Those would change things a hell of a lot. 

  Furthermore if a government in 'Russia' that doesn't cancel war debts that considerably changes the economic situation post-war, assuming they are thought to be able to pay those debts.  That could greatly reduce the dependence of the world economy on the US fiscal markets.  As such if the latter still collapses in ~1929 it might not drag the rest of the world with it.  Even if it does a Russia that has become distinctly isolationist say could be fairly unaffected by any wider world economic crisis.

[575]

Jun 26, 2024 8:04:02 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

What if the October Revolution never happened and it was either the Russian Empire or the Russian Republic that fought ww2?

For certain there would be no communism which means that Russia would rxperience both the Roaring Twenties and the Great Depression. No communism also means no forced industrialization which means that Russia might be less prepared for ww2 than USSR was industry wise while it's officer corps might be of higher quality due to lack of Great Purge

What do you guys think?

First to consider is the continuation of Russian war participation. Kerensky promised the Western Powers to continue in the Entende.

How far east do the Germans and A-H go before they just can't continue - more than when do the Russians stop them?

Either or the Germans will be able to pull out troops and turn west though not as many as OTL and like for A-H. In this case it may be a continued trench war untill the Entente is ready to go on the offensive and force a CP armistige of much the same reasons as OTL - lack of food and resources.

The thing is how much do Russia lose ITTL and how much can be won back? Perhaps foreign investments replacing loans payments could turn Russia earlier industrial however even if the Communist's are defeated what happens on all that real-estate. How many independent nations emerge and then disappear? If too much unrest and certainly a major Civil War is averted some possibilities for rebuilding the economy should exist - there was those in the west that wanted to trade with Russia such as build communications to the Far East. Such opportunities might greatly change here.

Its difficult to guess which nations such as Finland will become independent and which will stay with Russia. What will Poland look like? will it go to war with an Entente Russia? Romania may or may not get Bessarabia depending on other developments in Russia such as in Ukraine and Belarus. Actually there could be a period of Russia falling somewhat apart and then get rebuild.

Such may make for a very different 1920's - 30's.

Also if no Communist Revolution in Russia how about Germany, Hungary? There might be another end to WWI.

[stevep]

Jun 26, 2024 15:54:26 GMT 575 said:

Jun 26, 2024 8:04:02 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

What if the October Revolution never happened and it was either the Russian Empire or the Russian Republic that fought ww2?

For certain there would be no communism which means that Russia would rxperience both the Roaring Twenties and the Great Depression. No communism also means no forced industrialization which means that Russia might be less prepared for ww2 than USSR was industry wise while it's officer corps might be of higher quality due to lack of Great Purge

What do you guys think?

First to consider is the continuation of Russian war participation. Kerensky promised the Western Powers to continue in the Entende.

How far east do the Germans and A-H go before they just can't continue - more than when do the Russians stop them?

Either or the Germans will be able to pull out troops and turn west though not as many as OTL and like for A-H. In this case it may be a continued trench war untill the Entente is ready to go on the offensive and force a CP armistige of much the same reasons as OTL - lack of food and resources.

The thing is how much do Russia lose ITTL and how much can be won back? Perhaps foreign investments replacing loans payments could turn Russia earlier industrial however even if the Communist's are defeated what happens on all that real-estate. How many independent nations emerge and then disappear? If too much unrest and certainly a major Civil War is averted some possibilities for rebuilding the economy should exist - there was those in the west that wanted to trade with Russia such as build communications to the Far East. Such opportunities might greatly change here.

Its difficult to guess which nations such as Finland will become independent and which will stay with Russia. What will Poland look like? will it go to war with an Entente Russia? Romania may or may not get Bessarabia depending on other developments in Russia such as in Ukraine and Belarus. Actually there could be a period of Russia falling somewhat apart and then get rebuild.

Such may make for a very different 1920's - 30's.

Also if no Communist Revolution in Russia how about Germany, Hungary? There might be another end to WWI.

  The question is how does PG [Provisional Government] avoid the OTL Leninist coup and if so how long can it continue really fighting the Germans?  OTL after the failure of the spring 1917 offensive and hit by Bolshevik propaganda the army was crumbling.  However it would be difficult to see it doing worse than OTL Bolsheviks who basically gave up on fighting the Germans.  If so how far does the CPs push the eastern front before trying to switch westwards.  [I think the Germans will still seek to do this in 1918 as they want to win in the west before the growing allied material superiority, the numbers of American forces arriving, the desperate plight of the German population and the collapse of the German allies prompts their own collapse.

  I can see multiple possibly PoDs of which some early ones would be:

a)  The Germans never send Lenin to Russia after the February/March revolution and the Bolsheviks remain a relatively minor fringe group with some agitation/terrorism.  As such the collapse of the army is at least delayed, which means that the Germans have to fight longer and harder or decide that they need to shut down the eastern front to send forces westwards.

b)   That the spring 1917 offensive goes better which puts additional strain on the CPs and gives the PG a lot more prestige,

c)  Conversely that say before or after an OTL offensive the PG realise their position is fragile and  whether with the approval of their allies or not decide they can only take limited defensive actions in the east for a while.  This may enable the Germans to send forces west earlier but in lower numbers.

d)  That when the PG seek to arrest Lenin and some of his followers for his anti-war activities he is caught, or possibly even killed rather than escaping.

e)  That the situation in summer 1917, when Prince Lvov allegedly responding to reports of unrest in Petrograd ordered military forces toward the capital.  This was interpreted as an attempted military coup which resulted in his dismissal, further division in the army and the panicking government turning towards the Bolshevik led Soviet councils for support which boosted their power considerably is avoided.  This could at the least extend the life of the PG and its resistance to the CPs attacks.

  Agree that a PG that avoids Lenin's coup and survives until the German collapse and end of the war is still likely to face a lot of problems.  Especially if its willing to accept independence movements in places like Poland, Finland, the Baltic states and elsewhere then their major threat could well come from disgruntled rightists and military factors.  you might see civil war or at least a period of internal chaos and instability.  However even then things will be a hell of a lot different from OTL with all sorts of possible directions the world might go in.

  If the PG survives until TTL's Versailles then its going to be a significant factor in the peace treaty and the world's balance of power.  American retreat into isolationism will be less important as Russia could be a major counter to any German revanchists in the east.  Of course if there's an independent Polish state and Russia becomes dominated by say a military strongman then you could see a potential alliance between them and a right wing - not necessary Nazi - government in Poland. 

  Anyway starting to get hot again so going to turn off the computer again and move up-stairs in the hope its cooled off a bit.

[575]

If we go by the October Revolution i.e. Communist Revolution doesn't happen - it may do so for a couple of reasons and stevep outline in the previous post a) through e) scenario's of which I would place mine as c) though I think all is valid. How each will play out is difficult - to me at least - to imagine hence my loose ideas though these doesn't differ that much from stevep. I think there may well be a Polish state because the Germans set up the Polish Kingdom 1916 later the Government General of Poland which formed some basis (Poles may of course disagree) for the Second Polish Republic.

That said Europe will look very different without a Soviet Union to inspire other revolutionaries. What it ends up like I have difficulty envisioning though if Germany doesn't go through the like revolutionary upheaval it did it might well turn out a big Socialdemocratic state or a more conservative one though without the conservatives fearing another Red uprising/Revolution which may change a lot of Germans' political perceptions.

[stevep]

Jun 26, 2024 19:51:15 GMT 575 said:

If we go by the October Revolution i.e. Communist Revolution doesn't happen - it may do so for a couple of reasons and stevep outline in the previous post a) through e) scenario's of which I would place mine as c) though I think all is valid. How each will play out is difficult - to me at least - to imagine hence my loose ideas though these doesn't differ that much from stevep. I think there may well be a Polish state because the Germans set up the Polish Kingdom 1916 later the Government General of Poland which formed some basis (Poles may of course disagree) for the Second Polish Republic.

That said Europe will look very different without a Soviet Union to inspire other revolutionaries. What it ends up like I have difficulty envisioning though if Germany doesn't go through the like revolutionary upheaval it did it might well turn out a big Socialdemocratic state or a more conservative one though without the conservatives fearing another Red uprising/Revolution which may change a lot of Germans' political perceptions.

  I think the big points of no USSR would be:

a)  Unless you end up with some revanchist - probably right wing regime - Russia not being a pariah makes a huge difference in both the balance of military power in Europe and also possibly the economic situation.

b)  Without the USSR there's no Soviet state to inspire/encourage the idea of communism but also doesn't discredit such ideas in many eyes and possibly doesn't prompt as much support for fascism in reaction.  Well unless as you suggest a successful revolution might occur in somewhere else such as Germany or Hungary where there were uprisings in some parts of those states.

[raharris1973]

Here is an interesting possibility that might be created by a lack of an October Revolution, which is likely to go hand-in-hand with a Russian government that somehow survives in power without formally suing the Germans/Central Powers for peace, and lasts to the end of the war without signing anything like the humiliating Brest-Litovsk Treaty, nor sees any of its territory east of the Pripet Marshes occupied, or in the absolute worst case, no territory east of the Dnepr river.

Any German revanchist regime of any sort: monarchist, militarist, "Fascist", "Nazi" may have a substantially different strategic perspective on its possibilities, and therefore its ultimate goals, compared to the OTL Nazi Germany we know and hate. I am still assuming a "revanchist" Germany of *some* sort would be a feature of this alternate World War Two, because it would be the main driver of there being a "World War Two" in Europe at all, as @otto Kretschmer is looking for. However, in this alternate timeline, the revanchist Germans, even the ones who became Nazis, including Hitler himself, may not see Russia as such a "pushover" and keep a realistic perspective that the country is just too damn big to conquer, much less resettle like a virgin land.

The difference would come, because these alternate timeline Germans would not see these social revolution and Bolshevik-agitation addled Russian Army literally melt in front of them, and become completely combat ineffective and helpless to prevent German and CP forces (and ex-CP PoWs!) from marching wherever they pleased, and helpless to prevent ethnonational groups from all the imperial peripheries from breaking away.

So German revanchists in a Second World War, while wanting to enlarge German borders, get back specific old territories, maybe, if viciously extreme, wanting to "demographically reshape" Central Europe in favor of ethnic Germans, won't have the illusion that they can swallow up Ukraine and Russia for the German "race." This revanchist Germany may be inclined to think a "lesson" of the war was "no two front wars", to make a partition deal with Russia over Eastern Europe, and intend to actually keep it.

A non-Bolshevik Russia, not ditching its allies with a separate peace and not repudiating its debts, will, yes, be more able and likely willing to coordinate with France, Central European and Balkan states to contain a resurgent revanchist Germany than the USSR. It will be more trusted by the west and trusting. However, given the costs and losses of the war itself even without Bolshevik revolution, and debts to be paid afterward, staying out the next war in Central Europe may seem desirable to an interwar Russian government, if at all possible. Heck, staying out of war, including via a little appeasement, instead of reuniting with old allies to have another round going at the Jerries, was a popular option many Englishmen and Frenchmen were hoping for during the OTL interwar.

[Max Sinister]

Without B-L, the Allies will win quicker. Also, Russia will demand something for their effort. Russian Poland enlarged, and Constantinople of course. (Well, first they have to take it.)

The "stab in the back" narrative will work less well ITTL, since Germany has no victory in the East to show, and no advance in the west in 1918 with the troops they brought from the East IOTL.

All in all - hard to judge. What do you want to make of it?

[oscssw]

Good discussion. Now I got to give the devil his due. Without the genocidal bastard "Uncle Joe" in charge
1. Russian Industry will be far smaller than under the Commie Bastards
2. No one else would be able to instill the fear necessary to stay in the war after the initial successes by the Germans.

[stevep]

Aug 8, 2024 8:24:08 GMT oscssw said:

Good discussion. Now I got to give the devil his due. Without the genocidal bastard "Uncle Joe" in charge
1. Russian Industry will be far smaller than under the Commie Bastards
2. No one else would be able to instill the fear necessary to stay in the war after the initial successes by the Germans.

  That assumes a lot.  

1)  In terms of material destruction Russian losses in WWI were dwarved by the destruction done in the civil war.  Avoid that, even if there's loss of a lot of border regions because a weak and/or liberal central government won't oppose them Russia is in a massively better position by ~1922. 

  In the following years, provided there isn't a serious period of internal disorder and conflict - which is possible - your going to have a much better position for further economic development.  There will be more trade with and investment from the west of the developed world.  Without the further murder of millions of peasants, especially the most skilled of them and the disaster that was collectivization you have both more wealth generated and a larger internal market.

  As such while Russia may quite possibly still have a somewhat smaller heavy industrial base but it would definitely have a markedly larger population and a broader light industrial base - to supply that larger and wealthier population - which could be converted to wartime use in a major conflict.

2)  There is a lot of evidence that the Russians and other Slavic populations didn't fight for Stalin.  They fought for traditional ideas of Russian nationalism and religious and cultural values.  here, without the atrocities and sheer insanity of Bolshevik rule, especially the near two decades under Stalin there's a lot less incentive for the mass surrenders and for millions of people to welcome a foreign invader as liberators.  Also no matter how corrupt and weakened by internal factions this Russia might be its difficult to see something like the OTL purges of the military and other aspects of life.

  Russia here may well not meet full levels of western democratic values of the time and internal disputes and power struggles which could cause problems but its unlikely you will have the same level of sheer stupidity under Stalin, which at times approached if not matched that in Hitler's mis-leadership of Nazi Germany.  Russians will fight in desperate positions because they believe in their cause rather than because a deluded dictator orders them to with the threat they they will be shot and their families persecuted if they don't obey orders.  Its likely that if you still go something like the OTL German military attacking this Russia you won't have the same level of surprise in the initial days or the orders to stand and fight regardless of the actual position.

  As I say it could still go badly for Russia if there's a lot of instability and even major internal conflicts in the 20's and 30's but with any half decent government and from a markedly higher base this Russia is likely to be a distinctly tougher nut for any attacker than the OTL USSR.

[oscssw]

Steve I guess we read history differently. No problem. We will just have to agree to disagree.
PAX

[justiniano]

it depends. How does russia avoid the october revolution? Also, does Russia still lose ww1?

[ewellholmes]

Jul 10, 2024 15:08:18 GMT Max Sinister said:

Without B-L, the Allies will win quicker. Also, Russia will demand something for their effort. Russian Poland enlarged, and Constantinople of course. (Well, first they have to take it.)

The "stab in the back" narrative will work less well ITTL, since Germany has no victory in the East to show, and no advance in the west in 1918 with the troops they brought from the East IOTL.

All in all - hard to judge. What do you want to make of it?

Maybe, but probably not in the way you're thinking. B-L didn't lead to much in the way of German material gains and tied down a significant amount of forces; garrisoning Ukraine alone cost the Germans roughly 20 divisions for example. Where it will make the difference is that the influx of forces from the East after the start of the Spring Offensive won't be there, which could lead to the cancellation of further offensives after Georgette. In June-July there was talk of pulling back to Hindenburg Line and starting peace talks; it's likely to happen here. 

What the terms look like, is hard to say. Russian Poland was on the way out by 1917, however, and definitely would be in 1918 given the PG had already endorsed self-determination. During the Sixtus Affair in 1917, the Austro-Hungarians had suggested they would be willing to surrender Galicia to a revived Poland; perhaps Congress Poland is paired with such to create a Pro-Entente buffer between the two Central Powers and Russia. 

[stevep]

Sept 12, 2024 22:32:42 GMT ewellholmes said:

Jul 10, 2024 15:08:18 GMT Max Sinister said:

Without B-L, the Allies will win quicker. Also, Russia will demand something for their effort. Russian Poland enlarged, and Constantinople of course. (Well, first they have to take it.)

The "stab in the back" narrative will work less well ITTL, since Germany has no victory in the East to show, and no advance in the west in 1918 with the troops they brought from the East IOTL.

All in all - hard to judge. What do you want to make of it?

Maybe, but probably not in the way you're thinking. B-L didn't lead to much in the way of German material gains and tied down a significant amount of forces; garrisoning Ukraine alone cost the Germans roughly 20 divisions for example. Where it will make the difference is that the influx of forces from the East after the start of the Spring Offensive won't be there, which could lead to the cancellation of further offensives after Georgette. In June-July there was talk of pulling back to Hindenburg Line and starting peace talks; it's likely to happen here. 

What the terms look like, is hard to say. Russian Poland was on the way out by 1917, however, and definitely would be in 1918 given the PG had already endorsed self-determination. During the Sixtus Affair in 1917, the Austro-Hungarians had suggested they would be willing to surrender Galicia to a revived Poland; perhaps Congress Poland is paired with such to create a Pro-Entente buffer between the two Central Powers and Russia. 

  Garrisoning even a smaller occupation zone in the east will probably require even more men here because instead of a prostrate Bolshevik state quickly collapsing into civil war they face a still potentially powerful Russian state.  Plus now the Germans will have to decide whether they will actually go through with their promises to the Poles.  They will get less than they took from the east OTL but then they didn't control it long enough to get as much as they wanted OTL.

[Max Sinister]

Sept 12, 2024 22:32:42 GMT ewellholmes said:

Jul 10, 2024 15:08:18 GMT Max Sinister said:

Without B-L, the Allies will win quicker. Also, Russia will demand something for their effort. Russian Poland enlarged, and Constantinople of course. (Well, first they have to take it.)

The "stab in the back" narrative will work less well ITTL, since Germany has no victory in the East to show, and no advance in the west in 1918 with the troops they brought from the East IOTL.

All in all - hard to judge. What do you want to make of it?

Maybe, but probably not in the way you're thinking. B-L didn't lead to much in the way of German material gains and tied down a significant amount of forces; garrisoning Ukraine alone cost the Germans roughly 20 divisions for example. Where it will make the difference is that the influx of forces from the East after the start of the Spring Offensive won't be there, which could lead to the cancellation of further offensives after Georgette. In June-July there was talk of pulling back to Hindenburg Line and starting peace talks; it's likely to happen here. 

That sounds like the Germans might get a better peace ITTL. Or that things might run smoother, speaking about their political system. ITTL it was chaotic: Some suggested that the kaiser should abdicate in favor of his son, some even suggested he should ride out to die valiantly in battle (not the worst suggestion!).