A History of the American-Japanese Campaign of 1931-1933

[gillan1220]

May 20, 2020 11:49:15 GMT stevep said:

May 20, 2020 6:45:33 GMT gillan1220 said:

Another one I found which is similar to this situation for the timeline Yellowstone: 1936 on the Alternate History Wiki. Basically an earlier Pacific War occurs in December 1938 after Japan uses the advantage to take over the Asia-Pacific region after the United States is still recovering from the Yellowstone Eruption of 1936.

  Ouch that is nasty.  I can't see Japan having that degree of success given the economic and ecological disruption nor being able with their more limited MS to transport so many people off the islands.  Also doubtful that temperatures would drop that far for that long. 

 

I have read in most scenarios that Japan would have the initial advantage since they have more carriers while the U.S. only has the USS Lexington, USS Saratoga, and USS Yorktown while the rest our light carriers. The Japanese rampage would eventually be halted as their supplies are overextended. Even in the 1930s, Japan could not take on the might of the United States in terms of economy, industry, military, and manpower. With or with no Yellowstone Eruption.

[lordroel]

May 20, 2020 13:40:05 GMT gillan1220 said:

May 20, 2020 11:49:15 GMT stevep said:

  Ouch that is nasty.  I can't see Japan having that degree of success given the economic and ecological disruption nor being able with their more limited MS to transport so many people off the islands.  Also doubtful that temperatures would drop that far for that long. 

 

I have read in most scenarios that Japan would have the initial advantage since they have more carriers while the U.S. only has the USS Lexington, USS Saratoga, and USS Yorktown while the rest our light carriers. The Japanese rampage would eventually be halted as their supplies are overextended. Even in the 1930s, Japan could not take on the might of the United States in terms of economy, industry, military, and manpower. With or with no Yellowstone Eruption.

Whell in this universe the United States has only got the 2 Lexington-class aircraft carriers followed by 2 Alaska-class light aircraft carriers (3rd one build during the war), 1 Langley-class light aircraft carrier, 1 Curtiss-class light aircraft carrier
(sunk at the Battle of Lubang on March 6th 1931 and later replaced by 1 Alaska-class light aircraft carriers using here name) and 1 Wright-class seaplane carrier and 3 Temporary aircraft carriers.

Compared to that the Japanese field only 3 Light aircraft carriers of the Matsushima-class, 1 Hosho-class light aircraft carrier and 1 Hakata-class auxiliary aircraft carrier.

In the end, the United states still fields more carriers than the Japanese here.

[stevep]

May 20, 2020 13:40:05 GMT gillan1220 said:

May 20, 2020 11:49:15 GMT stevep said:

  Ouch that is nasty.  I can't see Japan having that degree of success given the economic and ecological disruption nor being able with their more limited MS to transport so many people off the islands.  Also doubtful that temperatures would drop that far for that long. 

 

I have read in most scenarios that Japan would have the initial advantage since they have more carriers while the U.S. only has the USS Lexington, USS Saratoga, and USS Yorktown while the rest our light carriers. The Japanese rampage would eventually be halted as their supplies are overextended. Even in the 1930s, Japan could not take on the might of the United States in terms of economy, industry, military, and manpower. With or with no Yellowstone Eruption.

  gillan1220,

  Apologies.  Somehow missed this reply. 

  If a moderately bad Yellowstone then Japan would probably win, at least in the short term.  In a really bad one then then neither state is likely to be in a condition to wage large scale war for a couple of decades probably.  Doubtful that the climatic effects would be as long lasting and as patchy across the globe as in that scenario although one thing I think most people are assuming, including myself, is that it would be one big explosion, possibly with some warning precursor shocks.  If the eruption lasted for several months or so at full level then it could well be a mass extinction event and human society could be forced back to a very primitive level.

  Without a Yellowstone event or some other disaster so badly crippling the US then definitely a full scale war between the two would only have one winner and its definitely not Tokyo.

  Steve

[gillan1220]

Jun 6, 2020 10:24:23 GMT stevep said:

May 20, 2020 13:40:05 GMT gillan1220 said:

I have read in most scenarios that Japan would have the initial advantage since they have more carriers while the U.S. only has the USS Lexington, USS Saratoga, and USS Yorktown while the rest our light carriers. The Japanese rampage would eventually be halted as their supplies are overextended. Even in the 1930s, Japan could not take on the might of the United States in terms of economy, industry, military, and manpower. With or with no Yellowstone Eruption.

  gillan1220 ,

  Apologies.  Somehow missed this reply. 

  If a moderately bad Yellowstone then Japan would probably win, at least in the short term.  In a really bad one then then neither state is likely to be in a condition to wage large scale war for a couple of decades probably.  Doubtful that the climatic effects would be as long lasting and as patchy across the globe as in that scenario although one thing I think most people are assuming, including myself, is that it would be one big explosion, possibly with some warning precursor shocks.  If the eruption lasted for several months or so at full level then it could well be a mass extinction event and human society could be forced back to a very primitive level.

  Without a Yellowstone event or some other disaster so badly crippling the US then definitely a full scale war between the two would only have one winner and its definitely not Tokyo.

  Steve

Or the conflict becomes a stalemate at best.

[lordroel]

Jun 8, 2020 16:24:56 GMT gillan1220 said:

Or the conflict becomes a stalemate at best.

As long as the British do not get involved that is.

But lets end it here this discussion is a like to keep this thread focus on the A History of the American-Japanese Campaign of 1931-1933 universe if that is possible.

[lordroel]

Have added a new battle that was fought to the war on the first post on the first page of this thread.

The Battle of Cape St Vincent (April 15th 1932)

Location of the battle

South-West of Cape of St Vincent.

Date of the battle

April 15th 1932

Introduction

The United States Navy using auxiliary cruisers in European waters to sink ore capture Japanese merchant ships encounter two Japanese armed merchant ships.

Order of battle

United States Navy

USS George Washington.

USS Mount Vernon.

USS President Madison.

USS President Pierce.

USS Leviathan, served as a transmitting station for the four auxiliary cruisers and was station in the neighborhood of Brest, France.

USS President Cleveland.

USS President Jefferson.

USS President Taft.

Japanese Imperial Navy

Nagasaki Maru.

Shanghai Maru.

Outcome of the battle

Japanese victory.

Losses suffered during the battle

USS George Washington was heavily damage and later sank while being towed by a French tug near the Moroccan coast, the USS Mount Vernon, also suffered severe and was taken as a prize of war by the Japanese after it surrender to them.

Casualties

United States Navy: heavy.

Imperial Japanese Navy: light.

[gillan1220]

Jun 8, 2020 18:41:41 GMT lordroel said:

Have added a new battle that was fought to the war on the first post on the first page of this thread.

The Battle of Cape St Vincent (April 15th 1932)

Location of the battle

South-West of Cape of St Vincent.

Date of the battle

April 15th 1932

Introduction

The United States Navy using auxiliary cruisers in European waters to sink ore capture Japanese merchant ships encounter two Japanese armed merchant ships.

Order of battle

United States Navy

USS George Washington.

USS Mount Vernon.

USS President Madison.

USS President Pierce.

USS Leviathan, served as a transmitting station for the four auxiliary cruisers and was station in the neighborhood of Brest, France.

USS President Cleveland.

USS President Jefferson.

USS President Taft.

Japanese Imperial Navy

Nagasaki Maru.

Shanghai Maru.

Outcome of the battle

Japanese victory.

Losses suffered during the battle

USS George Washington was heavily damage and later sank while being towed by a French tug near the Moroccan coast, the USS Mount Vernon, also suffered severe and was taken as a prize of war by the Japanese after it surrender to them.

Casualties

United States Navy: heavy.

Imperial Japanese Navy: light.

I never knew the Japanese could reach the Atlantic with their 1930s navy. As you can see, this is going really bad for the U.S.

[stevep]

Jun 9, 2020 5:56:43 GMT gillan1220 said:

Jun 8, 2020 18:41:41 GMT lordroel said:

Have added a new battle that was fought to the war on the first post on the first page of this thread.

The Battle of Cape St Vincent (April 15th 1932)

Location of the battle

South-West of Cape of St Vincent.

Date of the battle

April 15th 1932

Introduction

The United States Navy using auxiliary cruisers in European waters to sink ore capture Japanese merchant ships encounter two Japanese armed merchant ships.

Order of battle

United States Navy

USS George Washington.

USS Mount Vernon.

USS President Madison.

USS President Pierce.

USS Leviathan, served as a transmitting station for the four auxiliary cruisers and was station in the neighborhood of Brest, France.

USS President Cleveland.

USS President Jefferson.

USS President Taft.

Japanese Imperial Navy

Nagasaki Maru.

Shanghai Maru.

Outcome of the battle

Japanese victory.

Losses suffered during the battle

USS George Washington was heavily damage and later sank while being towed by a French tug near the Moroccan coast, the USS Mount Vernon, also suffered severe and was taken as a prize of war by the Japanese after it surrender to them.

Casualties

United States Navy: heavy.

Imperial Japanese Navy: light.

I never knew the Japanese could reach the Atlantic with their 1930s navy. As you can see, this is going really bad for the U.S.

  Well merchantmen armed for self protection only in war may be able to operate pretty much as normal commerical traffic, i.e. refueling in neutral ports, use the Susz canal etc.  I am surprised that two such ships fought off at least twice their number including sinking one and capturing another.  The basic problem with any merchant ship is that their vulnerable to enemy fire - the old line about eggshells armed with hammers is very appropriate here.  Hence unless they have been secretly armoured, which would greatly reduce their carrying capacity, or have a superior range and fire control so they could do the bulk of the damage before the US ships could close the range, I would have expected probably ships sunk or crippled on both sides but with sheer numbers meaning the Japanese ships are sunk albeit quite possibly with heavy losses for the US.

  Losing a ship named after their 1st President and most famous founding father is going to rankle in the US.  The population is going to be angry with someone.  Whether its mostly with Japan or with their own government would be the issue.

  Of course unless they lose the will to continue the US will win in the end simply by sheer economic might and the fact their pretty much invulnerable to Japan while ultimately the reverse is not the case.

[gillan1220]

How would this later affect German ambitions in Europe? For sure there will be a lot of butterflies if an earlier Pacific War is fought.

[lordroel]

Aug 3, 2020 12:28:23 GMT gillan1220 said:

How would this later affect German ambitions in Europe? For sure there will be a lot of butterflies if an earlier Pacific War is fought.

Well i think Hitler will still do his thing, the book was written in 1925 depicting a war that happen in 1931 to 1933, Hitler will still most likely come to power in 1934 and but this time the United States as the book has said here:

Japan was brought to the verge of ruin, nor is it conceivable that she will regain her former status as a first-rank Power during the present generation. If the United States emerged victorious from the fray, it cannot be said that she derived any substantial benefit beyond the elimination of that menace of war which had been for many years a perpetual source of anxiety to her statesmen. Her shipping trade was virtually destroyed, and as yet it shows no sign of recovery. The enormous expenditure in which she had been involved left its inevitable aftermath of high taxation and consequent social unrest. War is never a paying proposition from any national point of view, and the great conflict of which the salient phases are described in the foregoing pages has proved, in its material aspects at least, scarcely less disastrous to victors than to vanquished.

So i think the United States having won the American-Japanese War will sit only any conflict in Europe unless attack, also relation between United States and Japan will most likely improve thus we never going to see the Pacific War of OTL.

[gillan1220]

Aug 3, 2020 14:33:32 GMT lordroel said:

Aug 3, 2020 12:28:23 GMT gillan1220 said:

How would this later affect German ambitions in Europe? For sure there will be a lot of butterflies if an earlier Pacific War is fought.

Well i think Hitler will still do his thing, the book was written in 1925 depicting a war that happen in 1931 to 1933, Hitler will still most likely come to power in 1934 and but this time the United States as the book has said here:

Japan was brought to the verge of ruin, nor is it conceivable that she will regain her former status as a first-rank Power during the present generation. If the United States emerged victorious from the fray, it cannot be said that she derived any substantial benefit beyond the elimination of that menace of war which had been for many years a perpetual source of anxiety to her statesmen. Her shipping trade was virtually destroyed, and as yet it shows no sign of recovery. The enormous expenditure in which she had been involved left its inevitable aftermath of high taxation and consequent social unrest. War is never a paying proposition from any national point of view, and the great conflict of which the salient phases are described in the foregoing pages has proved, in its material aspects at least, scarcely less disastrous to victors than to vanquished.

So i think the United States having won the American-Japanese War will sit only any conflict in Europe unless attack, also relation between United States and Japan will most likely improve thus we never going to see the Pacific War of OTL.

So in that case the World War II of our timeline won't come per se and assuming Hitler's forces still invades Rhineland, Sudetenland, and Poland as per OTL, it would be mostly a European affair.

[lordroel]

Aug 3, 2020 15:45:33 GMT gillan1220 said:

Aug 3, 2020 14:33:32 GMT lordroel said:

Well i think Hitler will still do his thing, the book was written in 1925 depicting a war that happen in 1931 to 1933, Hitler will still most likely come to power in 1934 and but this time the United States as the book has said here:

Japan was brought to the verge of ruin, nor is it conceivable that she will regain her former status as a first-rank Power during the present generation. If the United States emerged victorious from the fray, it cannot be said that she derived any substantial benefit beyond the elimination of that menace of war which had been for many years a perpetual source of anxiety to her statesmen. Her shipping trade was virtually destroyed, and as yet it shows no sign of recovery. The enormous expenditure in which she had been involved left its inevitable aftermath of high taxation and consequent social unrest. War is never a paying proposition from any national point of view, and the great conflict of which the salient phases are described in the foregoing pages has proved, in its material aspects at least, scarcely less disastrous to victors than to vanquished.

So i think the United States having won the American-Japanese War will sit only any conflict in Europe unless attack, also relation between United States and Japan will most likely improve thus we never going to see the Pacific War of OTL.

So in that case the World War II of our timeline won't come per se and assuming Hitler's forces still invades Rhineland, Sudetenland, and Poland as per OTL, it would be mostly a European affair.

That could be likely, as long as Germany does not do anything stupid to upset the United States of course. 

[stevep]

Aug 3, 2020 14:33:32 GMT lordroel said:

Aug 3, 2020 12:28:23 GMT gillan1220 said:

How would this later affect German ambitions in Europe? For sure there will be a lot of butterflies if an earlier Pacific War is fought.

Well i think Hitler will still do his thing, the book was written in 1925 depicting a war that happen in 1931 to 1933, Hitler will still most likely come to power in 1934 and but this time the United States as the book has said here:

Japan was brought to the verge of ruin, nor is it conceivable that she will regain her former status as a first-rank Power during the present generation. If the United States emerged victorious from the fray, it cannot be said that she derived any substantial benefit beyond the elimination of that menace of war which had been for many years a perpetual source of anxiety to her statesmen. Her shipping trade was virtually destroyed, and as yet it shows no sign of recovery. The enormous expenditure in which she had been involved left its inevitable aftermath of high taxation and consequent social unrest. War is never a paying proposition from any national point of view, and the great conflict of which the salient phases are described in the foregoing pages has proved, in its material aspects at least, scarcely less disastrous to victors than to vanquished.

So i think the United States having won the American-Japanese War will sit only any conflict in Europe unless attack, also relation between United States and Japan will most likely improve thus we never going to see the Pacific War of OTL.

  Not so sure about this.  Presumably there's no great depression in TTL so that would be likely to prevent Hitler's rise to power, although you could have some other, potentially far more dangerous militant revanchist group gaining power in German at some stage.  Although a US diverted by such a war could well stop supporting Weimar Germany, which could cause serious problems there.

  Also once this war breaks out, if not before, the treaty regime is dead.  Germany can't construct very much due to treaty restrictions and also limited capacity in the early years.  France and Italy may start a race between then or not, OTL they both sought to avoid a race but with war raging across such a large area of the world's oceans France especially with a wide empire is likely to see some additional production, albeit probably mainly in cruisers and other lighter units.  Britain is likely to be pushed into new construction because of the death of the treaty regime and the worrying instability of large areas of the world as it has a much larger merchant fleet than either combatant and is far more heavily dependent on both foreign trade and links with other parts of the war, not just the empire, than is the US.  While a more modern and powerful navy may not stop a revanchist Germany directly it will have numerous impacts on world affairs and if built up earlier leaves more time and resources for other activities such as building a more powerful army.  Also with probably a larger fleet and with the potential threat from Japan removed you could easily see Britain supporting France in something like the Rhineland crisis or taking a much harsher line on the Italian attack on Ethiopia.  Going to be a huge amount of butterflies here.

  Also a US which has suffered economically, while it may retreat into political isolationism it may instead also have an urge to defend what it fought for and maintain a more prominent world role than OTL in the 1930s'.  Plus while its spending a lot of money on the war that creates opportunities and markets for other powers so a lot is likely to happen there.

  Does the book say what happens to Japan and its empire after the war?  Is it occupied by the US and for how long?  Left to make its own way or what?  That could open opportunities for say Stalin or a more unified KMT China to play a larger role in E Asia.

[lordroel]

Aug 3, 2020 16:17:14 GMT stevep said:

Aug 3, 2020 14:33:32 GMT lordroel said:

Well i think Hitler will still do his thing, the book was written in 1925 depicting a war that happen in 1931 to 1933, Hitler will still most likely come to power in 1934 and but this time the United States as the book has said here:

Japan was brought to the verge of ruin, nor is it conceivable that she will regain her former status as a first-rank Power during the present generation. If the United States emerged victorious from the fray, it cannot be said that she derived any substantial benefit beyond the elimination of that menace of war which had been for many years a perpetual source of anxiety to her statesmen. Her shipping trade was virtually destroyed, and as yet it shows no sign of recovery. The enormous expenditure in which she had been involved left its inevitable aftermath of high taxation and consequent social unrest. War is never a paying proposition from any national point of view, and the great conflict of which the salient phases are described in the foregoing pages has proved, in its material aspects at least, scarcely less disastrous to victors than to vanquished.

So i think the United States having won the American-Japanese War will sit only any conflict in Europe unless attack, also relation between United States and Japan will most likely improve thus we never going to see the Pacific War of OTL.

  Not so sure about this.  Presumably there's no great depression in TTL so that would be likely to prevent Hitler's rise to power, although you could have some other, potentially far more dangerous militant revanchist group gaining power in German at some stage.  Although a US diverted by such a war could well stop supporting Weimar Germany, which could cause serious problems there.

  Also once this war breaks out, if not before, the treaty regime is dead.  Germany can't construct very much due to treaty restrictions and also limited capacity in the early years.  France and Italy may start a race between then or not, OTL they both sought to avoid a race but with war raging across such a large area of the world's oceans France especially with a wide empire is likely to see some additional production, albeit probably mainly in cruisers and other lighter units.  Britain is likely to be pushed into new construction because of the death of the treaty regime and the worrying instability of large areas of the world as it has a much larger merchant fleet than either combatant and is far more heavily dependent on both foreign trade and links with other parts of the war, not just the empire, than is the US.  While a more modern and powerful navy may not stop a revanchist Germany directly it will have numerous impacts on world affairs and if built up earlier leaves more time and resources for other activities such as building a more powerful army.  Also with probably a larger fleet and with the potential threat from Japan removed you could easily see Britain supporting France in something like the Rhineland crisis or taking a much harsher line on the Italian attack on Ethiopia.  Going to be a huge amount of butterflies here.

  Also a US which has suffered economically, while it may retreat into political isolationism it may instead also have an urge to defend what it fought for and maintain a more prominent world role than OTL in the 1930s'.  Plus while its spending a lot of money on the war that creates opportunities and markets for other powers so a lot is likely to happen there.

  Does the book say what happens to Japan and its empire after the war?  Is it occupied by the US and for how long?  Left to make its own way or what?  That could open opportunities for say Stalin or a more unified KMT China to play a larger role in E Asia.

Reading the book there might be some sort of depression due to the American-Japanese War but instead of starting in 1929 it might start in 1933.

[stevep]

Aug 3, 2020 16:19:35 GMT lordroel said:

Aug 3, 2020 16:17:14 GMT stevep said:

  Not so sure about this.  Presumably there's no great depression in TTL so that would be likely to prevent Hitler's rise to power, although you could have some other, potentially far more dangerous militant revanchist group gaining power in German at some stage.  Although a US diverted by such a war could well stop supporting Weimar Germany, which could cause serious problems there.

  Also once this war breaks out, if not before, the treaty regime is dead.  Germany can't construct very much due to treaty restrictions and also limited capacity in the early years.  France and Italy may start a race between then or not, OTL they both sought to avoid a race but with war raging across such a large area of the world's oceans France especially with a wide empire is likely to see some additional production, albeit probably mainly in cruisers and other lighter units.  Britain is likely to be pushed into new construction because of the death of the treaty regime and the worrying instability of large areas of the world as it has a much larger merchant fleet than either combatant and is far more heavily dependent on both foreign trade and links with other parts of the war, not just the empire, than is the US.  While a more modern and powerful navy may not stop a revanchist Germany directly it will have numerous impacts on world affairs and if built up earlier leaves more time and resources for other activities such as building a more powerful army.  Also with probably a larger fleet and with the potential threat from Japan removed you could easily see Britain supporting France in something like the Rhineland crisis or taking a much harsher line on the Italian attack on Ethiopia.  Going to be a huge amount of butterflies here.

  Also a US which has suffered economically, while it may retreat into political isolationism it may instead also have an urge to defend what it fought for and maintain a more prominent world role than OTL in the 1930s'.  Plus while its spending a lot of money on the war that creates opportunities and markets for other powers so a lot is likely to happen there.

  Does the book say what happens to Japan and its empire after the war?  Is it occupied by the US and for how long?  Left to make its own way or what?  That could open opportunities for say Stalin or a more unified KMT China to play a larger role in E Asia.

Reading the book there might be some sort of depression due to the American-Japanese War but instead of starting in 1929 it might start in 1933.

  OK a lot would depend on the circumstances.  An expensive war for the US, which probably means that other powers are selling it stuff and also having more success in 3rd markets - ditto also for Japan - could mean a lot of WWI debts are greatly reduced and would reduce the world economy's reliance on the US.  So economic problems in the US would have markedly less effects on the rest of the world.